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SSP Daily Digest: 4/13

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 8:17 AM EDT


Senate:

HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye says in a new interview that he "will not take sides in the primary," and Politico ads that his "top aides insist" he won't be lending quiet, behind-the-scenes support to any candidates either. I hope that's true, since I was concerned Ed Case might have mended things with Inouye to the point that the latter might get behind the former. But without some special help, I think Case will have a hard time. Also, SMS Research took the most useless poll imaginable, pitting Case against former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in a primary... and absolutely no one else. Whatevs.

ME-Sen: Olympia Snowe said she raised over $877K in Q1 and has over $2 million on hand.

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown said he raised $1.3 million in Q1 and has $2.5 million on hand.

VA-Sen: George Allen said he raised $1.5 million in Q1 and has $1.25 million on hand.

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: TX Gov. Rick Perry, current chair of the RGA, says his organization won't decide how heavily it'll get involved in Kentucky's gubernatorial race until after the May 17th primary. He also declined to endorse frontrunner (and establishment choice) David Williams, saying he's "got a really good feeling about all the men and women who are running."

House:

CO-04: Republican Rep. Corey Gardner apparently raised over $300K in Q1.

CT-04: Dem Rep. Jim Himes estimates he took in over $300K in Q1.

IN-06, IN-05: Luke Messer, a former official with the state GOP who nearly beat Rep. Dan Burton in a primary last year, now finds himself living just outside Burton's 5th CD, according to new maps proposed by Republicans in charge of the state lege. Messer is now in the 6th, which is likely to be vacated by Mike Pence, who everyone thinks will run for governor. Messer says he's buddies with Pence and will consider running to replace him if Pence makes the leap for the statehouse, but he wouldn't rule out a rematch against Burton (though he says he wouldn't move in order to do so).

MN-08: This is pretty wild: Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) says he's thinking about staging a comeback. It's wild because Nolan left office in 1981 and is now 68 years old. It's also rather strange because Nolan represented what was then the 6th CD, which is accurately represented in the map Joe Bodell presents. (His reader update is incorrect.) At the time, Nolan's district covered the southwestern and central portions of the state; today's 8th is in the northeastern corner (though they share one county in common, Mille Lacs). And to cap it all off, Nolan was touting himself at a Dem meeting in Bemidji, which is in the 7th CD. Actually, no - the real capper is that Nolan was a practitioner of the '60s & '70s fad of "Transcendental Meditation" (whose practitioners claimed they could levitate) and earned a mention in Time Magazine for it.

MO-03: Not going gently... or padding the warchest for a different race, or perhaps something else down the line? Russ Carnahan raised $333K in Q1, his best first quarter ever, and has $286K on hand. Dave Catanese notes that Lacy Clay raised just $17K (though he has $222K in the bank). Would Carnahan really go up against Clay in a primary? What do you think?

MS-02: Greenville Mayor Heather McTeer Hudson said she plans to challenge veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson in the Democratic primary next year. She also announced she's hiring pollster Celinda Lake. Hudson had previously said she wouldn't seek re-election to her current post. Thompson, meanwhile, ended last year with $1.7 million on hand and has warded off primary challengers before (most recently in 2006, in the form of Chuck Espy, son of former Rep. Mike Espy).

SD-AL: Though it seems all but certain that ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won't seek a rematch this cycle (among other things, she just accepted a teaching position at South Dakota State University, where she once worked), she did say she's open to the possibility of seeking office again at some point in the future. She didn't specify what post, so you can mentally flag this item as something other than just SD-AL if you like. Speaking of SD-AL, Rep. Kristi Noem (the woman who beat Sandlin) announced she took in $396K in Q1.

Other Races:

LA-AG: Former Rep. Joe Cao says he plans to challenge Dem-cum-Republican AG Buddy Caldwell this fall. Cao specifically cited Caldwell's party switch (which only happened in February) and questioned his Republican bona fides - sort of an unusual move in a state where party switching has been very common. We'll see if he Cao actually has the chops to make a race of it. (Side note: A proud moment in SSP in-the-weeds history: Live-blogging the LA-AG runoff in 2007, when control of the state House was also at stake.)

MS-AG: A rare bright spot for Mississippi Dems: Attorney General Jim Hood leads Republican Steve Simpson by 49-32 margin in PPP's latest poll.

Special Elections: From Johnny L-T:

Two of the three elections last night were landslides; in South Carolina's SD-16, Republican Greg Gregory trounced Democrat Keith Brann and Libertarian Stan Smith by a 77-18-5 margin, while in Minnesota's SD-66, DFLer Mary Jo McGuire beat Republican Greg Copeland 80-20. In Connecticut's HD-128, Democrat Dan Fox won with 39%, while Republican Charles Pia (not Antonacci, my mistake) came in second with 24%. Independents John Mallozzi and Monique Thomas both made strong showings, pulling in 23% and 13%, respectively, and Green Rolf Maurer brought up the rear with about 1%. Note that Mallozzi failed to win the Democratic nomination, so he petitioned his way onto the ballot.

Remainders:

Pay-to-Play: MaryNYC, the First Lady of the Swing State Project (aka my wife), has an interesting backgrounder on the SEC's new regulations which attempt to curtail Wall Street from engaging in "pay-to-play" with elected officials. What's interesting about the rules is that they make it very difficult for employees of financial firms to donate to state and local officeholders who have a stake in municipal investment decisions, but generally speaking doesn't affect donations to federal officeholders. So, in a hypothetical example, New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas, who is weighing a run for Senate, might find Wall Street's doors shut, while Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is already in the race, would face no such problems.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Indiana: We'll have a lengthier redistricting-only digest later today, but I wanted to bring you this information ASAP. A source involved in Indiana politics informs me that these are the Obama percentages for each CD in the new map proposed by Republicans in the state lege:

IN-01: 63.2
IN-02: 49.4
IN-03: 42.9
IN-04: 44.4
IN-05: 46.5
IN-06: 43.5
IN-07: 66.3
IN-08: 48.0
IN-09: 46.1
DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/13
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Those Indiana numbers
I'm aware that 2008 was a particularly exceptional Democratic year, but if Indiana continues to be competitive, those numbers look rather like a dummymander.

Especially given that local candidates may well outperform the national vote.  


Agreed
2008 was almost literally the only time we'd contested it since 1964. Who knows what gains are to be made?

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
IN-02
That is R+4 right?  That seems like a very winnable district for the Dems.

[ Parent ]
IN05 could be competitive in 2012
Especially considering suburban trends nationwide and Dan Burton's weakness.  The state senator from Anderson announced that he may run for IN06, but IN05 may be a better bet

[ Parent ]
Good point
Burton would be quite vulnerable in a 46% Obama district, all you'd need would be every 1 in 10 R voters in the presidential race to cross over and vote D.  I don't think that's all that outlandish, especially with independents forming the mass of those voters.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
And I would laugh
if after three straight cycles of the teahadist base failing to primary Watermelon Dan he was actually beaten by a Democrat.

With that said, it still seems unlikely given that the bulk of the district is and always will be Hamilton County, and the D bench in this district is fairly thin, even when the boundaries change. Still, it's not as outlandish as, say, Hayhurst coming within a nose against Souder in 2006. It would take a REALLY good Democratic year, though, and even then the Dem would probably be a Nick Lampson. Then again, the crazybase could run 47 candidates against the Dem the same way they have against Burton and he could have the seat for life. Who knows?  


[ Parent ]
Do we need a deep bench?
As nice as it is to have seasoned elected officials running, it doesn't seem like a necessity, particularly for House seats. There were a number of Republican candidates that were novices when it came to politics in 2010, just as there were plenty for Democrats in 2006. If we were to contest Burton's new district in 2012, I'd say it's far more important to have someone who, in addition to being ideologically appropriate for the district, was ready to campaign like a Chris Murphy or a Tom Perriello.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
IN won't be competitive
All the stars aligned for Democrats in 2008.  It is not the new normal.  That's why looking at CPVI is better than looking at Obama's percentage.  It smooths out the spikes a little bit.  IN-02 is now probably a 60% Bush '04 district.

[ Parent ]
But Kerry didn't contest IN at all.
Obama did.

Yes, the stars aligned perfectly in 2008 and that probably won't happen twice, but looking at 2004 doesn't really give you an accurate picture of what IN is capable of if Dems actually try.

I think averaging the Obama results with the Coats/Ellsworth results is more instructive than 2004, which was a.) a long time ago and b.) a Dem candidate who exemplified every "Botoxed East Coast rich guy" stereotype that heartland voters love to hate. Not that IN-Sen last year was a great contest, but it's a bit more accurate than Bush/Kerry, IMO.  


[ Parent ]
All the stars, really?
So you can guarantee a GOP nominee in 2012 who is stronger than John McCain?

Wow, thanks for letting us know.


[ Parent ]
I never finished calculating PVI for the new map,
but the one district that I did so far (CD1 because it was easiest) has the same Obama percentage as these numbers, so I'm inclined to believe the rest of them in lieu of better data.

By the way, CD1 under the new map has a PVI (2008 Pres + 2010 Senate) of D +12, which might just be strong enough to finally dump Visclosky.

I'm more concerned about the numbers for the Indianapolis-area districts, esp. CD5 and CD7.

It's possible that the IN GOP is figuring that 2008 was an anomaly and was using primarily 2010 data. I'd like to see the Coats/Ellsworth numbers so I could get an accurate sense of PVI here. The reality is somewhere in between the two in a normal year.  


[ Parent ]
ah. one advantage of starting work at 5
When I take ny coffee break at 730 ssp is there for me. Life is good.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Does anyone know how the
VA local elections coming up this year are shaping up? I haven't seen much polling in that area, and in the KY gov race.  

Seems to me the VA and NJ Gov elections got more attention than any of this years.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  


There isn't going to be any polling
State legislative polling is pretty much restricted to campaigns' internal polls, which they don't usually release. Plus we're still waiting for final approval on the maps.  

[ Parent ]
I mean like generic polling, not individual races.
PPP does it a lot, but I can't recall the last time they did it for VA.

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

[ Parent ]
I asked them to do that
in the comments section of their blog the last time they polled the state, but they never got around to it. They have shown Gov McDonnell with good approvals (46/34) their last poll. That's probably a good sign for the GOP if this election turns into a referendum on McDonnell's administration.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Ahh thanks.
Do you have a sense about how people are feeling about the upcoming election in your area? At least, for the ones who are paying attention atm anyway haha  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

[ Parent ]
Arkansas
No one seems to have noticed, but the Arkansas legislature is about to give final approval to a congressional map. It makes the 1st more Democratic by extending it down the Mississippi Delta and puts more northern counties in the 4th. The 3rd is mostly Missouri border counties but does have an arm stretching further south. The 2nd doesn't change much.

It looks like the initial goal was for Dems to be advantaged in the 1st and 4th, but the defeat of the Fayetteville Finger plan made it hard to protect the 4th much.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.


AR map
It looks like AR-01 is made more Dem and AR-04 is made more Rep.  Opposite of an incumbent protection plan.

[ Parent ]
AR-01 is 1% more D, and AR-04 is 4% more R.
I don't understand this map from a Democrat's perspective, but I'm thrilled with it personally.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Thrilled?
Ross can still hold it.  And it makes Dems more competitive in AR-01 and marginally more so in AR-02.

It's nothing for Republicans to be thrilled or disappointed in.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ross will run for Governor in 2014.
That seat will lean R, in my opinion.
Also, it's like a 1% shift in AR-01, and less than 1% in AR-02. I think Crawford will be popular with his constituents, and Arkansas is trending Republican, catching up with the rest of the south. I like this plan. That's just me, though.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
He may or may not.
Perhaps this map encourages him to stay and let McDaniels run instead.

Also, Griffin will be a top target.

Finally, Arkansas is trending Republican on the presidential and to a lesser extent, the federal level, but on the local level and state legislative level it's more like Kentucky.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'd compare it more to Louisiana a few years back, but time will tell.


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
The AR Republican Party is weak compared to the LA Republican Party.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Speaking of LA, what happened to the Cajun Ds?
A few years back, the descendants of Acadians used to split 50/50 D/R

[ Parent ]
And what about this map would make Ross stay?


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's a slam dunk for anyone
Crawford still has a good deal of Democratic counties that are not going to flip at all, even he is does manage popularity and if the Democrats can get the right candidate, they can win the seat. AR-2 is practically the same and still winnable for the right Democrat.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Not really.
Ross can still win it handily.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ross is running for Governor in 2014. The seat will be in Dem hands for 1 more cycle.
And Ross is barely a Dem, I don't mind him. I think the Dems would have been smarter to lock up AR-4 or to do the delta district that would have been 40+% black. Just my opinion.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Not assured.
Why is everyone talking about it like it's a sure thing he runs?  Yeah, I know there's talk about it, but that's it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What about this district would make him want to stay?
I just want to hear your reasoning.  

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
It's just conjecture from me.
But the fact that he is one of the few Democrats who can hold AR-04 after this will be a factor.  Also, McDaniel is definitely a rising star who is better suited for the job.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The district hasn't changed enough for him to need to move
He won by 17 points in that particularly Republican year that was 2010, and that's the smallest margin he had since he was elected.

[ Parent ]
In my opinion, you guys are acting like the job of Congressman = the job of Governor in Ross' eyes.
I don't see why he would want to stay in Congress where he has no future in leadership (he's too conservative). If he has a high chance to win the Governorship, I don't see why he'd defer to anyone else, even a "rising star". Governor is a way more powerful job, and I think Ross would far rather be Governor. That's just my take.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
By the way
When I said "rising star", it was not some gratuitous use of the phrase that we get so often these days.  I meant it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That's what I thought
Arkansas started trending Rep on the federal level a few years ago and is now trending Rep on the local level as well.  It will turn completely red like the rest of the south has in a few years.  When Ross runs for governor, this district is going red.  Dems would've been smart to lock in a more Dem district either by having Ross' district take in the rest of the Miss River counties, or even better, draw a Little Rock-Pine Bluff-River Counties district that would have a Dem PVI.

I understand they would like to make AR-01 more Democratic, but this reeks of the PA dummymander from last cycle.  Instead of cementing a seat in an increasingly red state, all they've done is make it easier for Republicans to have a 4-0 delegation in a couple years.


[ Parent ]
I disagree
Arkansas will be more like Kentucky in several years.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Why do you think that?
Not trolling, just trying to see your reasoning.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Because
the weakness of the AR Republican Party (compared to many other southern Republican Parties) will prevent them from really flipping things around there.  However, the AR Democratic Party is not as competent as the KYDP, so it balances out.

But it's too nebulous at this point to predict what this will entail.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Parties' strengths can change relatively quickly, but we'll see.


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Until Republicans remove Kim Hendren as the Senate leader (happening in 2012),
and remove Doyle Webb as Chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party, they are going to go nowhere.

But it really doesn't matter how well the state party is run - for example, Rick Crawford and Tim Griffin (not John Boozman) won on the strengths of their political views in 2010.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
AR & KY
They are the same right now, not in a few years.  Both long time Democratic strongholds that are trending Republican, albeit a little bit more slowly than the deep south.  In 1992:

AR House 88-11 Dem
AR Sen 30-5 Dem
KY House 71-29 Dem
KY Sen 25-13 Dem

2010:
AR House 54-45 Dem
AR Sen 20-15 Dem
KY House 58-42 Dem
KY Sen 22-15-1 Rep

That is some very large movement in both states over a short period of time.  Democrats have used legislative gerrymanders in both states to hold onto power, but that can last only so long as voters switch affiliations.  Both of these states will be completely red on the federal and local levels by the next census.


[ Parent ]
Agreed.
Arkansas Democrats need to realize their state is on the verge of realigning below the presidential level.  You just can't expect people to consistently vote for one party at one level and then another for other offices.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Those predictions can be hard to make
We only have a couple of cycles with specific circumstances to go by and that's hard to determine a trend from. Arkansas has a lot more pockets of Democratic strength than other southern states and local connections still count for a lot. You have to take those factors into account.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Also
They are quietly working on an aggressive Democratic gerrymander for the State Senate, something that is made possible by the latitude of nearly 10% population variance.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Red flags
IIRC, the abuse of the 10% variance allowance was what get the Democratic state legislature maps overturned here in Georgia.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I don't know if
they will go all the way on abusing that variance.  That would be too risky.  They'll probably go smaller, like 5%.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Even then...
It seems very risk to abuse any variance.  If the Democratic districts are consistently 5% under the mean while the Republican district are 5% over the mean, then you're going to risk a court-drawn map that defeats the whole purpose.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well, I don't know what they'll do.
TheGradyDem said that the map is being drafted in semi-secret and that the few who have seen it said that it's an aggressive Democratic gerrymander and that's all they know.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Will the maps be passed together?
Or can the Congressional map be set in stone and the Senate map somehow be rejected by Republicans+whatever Dems aren't helped as much as others in the map?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Don't forget the legislature doesn't draw the map.
It's the GOV, SOS, and AG. Meaning 2 Democrats and 1 Republicans. There are already some disputes between the parties. (See here: http://arkansasnews.com/2011/0...

The map is being drawn in secret...there has been a draft discussed about (I'll see if I can find it), and it was a pretty impressive Democratic gerrymander for what was possible.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
Does this map create D+ seats, or low R+ seats that the Democrast assume they'll be able to hold?


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
AR state legislature
If I'm not mistaken, the state legislature lines are drawn by the Board of Apportionment which consists of the State Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, which turns out to be a 2-to-1 Dem to GOP ratio.  

[ Parent ]
"Remainders"...really?
You give a shoutout to your wife in a section called "Remainders".  Oh she must love you....lol.

Somebody is
going to be sleeping on the lawn tonight, that's for sure. lol

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The lawn. In NYC.
Enough said.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe David lives on Staten Island
I'm sorry, David.  Please don't ban me!  Actually, there's no way in hell anyone on Staten Island by choice would go by "somethingNYC", is there.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
People live on Staten Island by choice?
News to me.  

[ Parent ]
He lives in NY-14
So east side of Manhattan and adjacent portions of Brooklyn and Queens.

At least it's not DavidNJ.  Assholes gave us Jersey Shore; thanks for furthering the destruction of pop culture.  I remember Snooki being all, look at me I'm on the New York Time's Best Sellers List.  The NYT statement for the article I read said something like, we go to 100 so yes, she made the extended list.


[ Parent ]
Nothing wrong with Staten Island....
...well except the Staten Island "Express"way which can be nightmarish at times.  And far too many people voting Republican in the South Shore.  Many of whom are in unions.  Public sector unions no less.  Ughhh.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
It's called Central Park
We don't have enough room in the apartment for a couch.

First Lady of the SwingStateProject

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's what I was thinking.
n/t  

[ Parent ]
Hah
I've been struggling to think of a good name for that catch-all section of the digest. I'll have a lot more time to think about it on the couch tonight. :)

[ Parent ]
At least you didn't say "left-overs"
Oh my that would be bad.

I'd like to suggest something intereting for renaming the "remainders" section.  Something latin maybe?  Any phrases that translate to "remainders" or "left-overs". (And no, I don't want et cetera, its too on the nose)


[ Parent ]
"detritus", perhaps?
That's a good Latin word, though it's been in English for a couple centuries now.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Wow
if you put your wife in the detritus section, the floor might be too comfy for you!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'm at least pleased
that SSP commenters are against putting the wife in the "detritus" section.  

First Lady of the SwingStateProject

[ Parent ]
Wow, Donnelly may not be screwed after all.
Also, IN-08 is now marginally less Republican.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Missouri
Did Clay ever relent and let Coehn into the CBC?  I remember being really really irked by the CBC and Clay for how they handled it when he asked to join.

Nope.
I'm starting to wonder if Carnahan could pull this off, especially if the VAP of MO-1 is under 45% black.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
No, but
the CBC endorsed him in the primary.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Maybe they'll relent.
After all, they'll be losing a few members to redistricting, Charlie Rangel can't last forever, and they're desperate enough to let in Allen Freaking West (who's also a one-termer for sure). Both convincing arguments to let the CBC become a "black district" organization and let in the likes of Cohen instead of a "group of people, many of them fantastically corrupt, who seem to care only about skin color, which totally defeats everything MLK stood for."  

[ Parent ]
Those SoCal CBC members also likely won't be around forever.
Demographically, their districts are sliding out from beneath them.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
LGBT caucus is for members who support LGBT issues
Although, you'd get to a point where every Congresscritter is in the CBC because they don't want to look racist.  

I'd love to see Sean Duffy join the LGBT caucus as the only GOPer is Ros-Lehtinen and that's because she knows her district.  Seeing a Republican who represents rural Wisconsin would be a treat and he has the face and bod to rack in some gay money from stupid people.  Him and Aaron Shock can do a calendar.  The second picture, when passed around the internet, elicited the gayest response from Schock; I burned that belt.  Bitch please, you aren't fooling anyone.


[ Parent ]
Biggest closet case if I've ever seen one.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
.
1st: Love Towleroad.
2nd: Schock is just metro.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Mary Bono Mack isn't in there?
Seems like an easy way to get some cred, by which I mean a throwaway line in a gauzy positive ad.  Do you have to, like, vote well on LGBT issues?  Would that be a problem for Sean?  Has that come up?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
It's a problem for Bono Mack.
Considering her little DADT vote fiasco last year.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
That was stupid too
I hadn't remembered the roll call.  I never understood why any Republicans in remotely blue districts didn't switch on DADT.  It's a perfect politician issue--it'd sound courageous but it'd be totally safe.  Someone's going to get a good paper out of why.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I love it when you are like this.
I imagine you'd be a great host for some show on cable about gays and politics. You could have a weekly segment devoted to hypocritical closet cases which could be called "Bitch please, you aren't fooling anyone." I'd watch that.

But seriously, in addition to being smart, you are funny. Very, very funny. Always a pleasure to read.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Just Ileana?
I though Bono-Mack was also in the LGBT caucus for similar reasons (Palm Beach).

Michael

30, male, Democratic, CO-01


[ Parent ]
Palm Springs.
Ros-Lehtinen is the only Republican in the caucus, though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Some Republican Congressmen can really take a shirtless picture.
Lost in the WTF??!! factor from the Chris Lee story was the fact that he looks pretty damn good.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
They should allow associate members
I think that's what the South Carolina Legislative Black Caucus has for legislators who aren't black and represent districts with sizable black populations.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
That's a fantastic idea
Honestly, the CBC should be a caucus for advancing African-American interests, not just for African-Americans in Congress.  I understand the CBC wants to avoid a situation where everyone and their mother wants to join the CBC for the fundraising and publicity, but it just seems cruel excluding Steve Cohen who represents a 60% black district, has repeatedly and convincingly demonstrated his appeal amongst his constituents, and has directly addressed African-American issues both in the state Senate and in Congress.

Yet the CBC would rather have an abhorrent individual like Rep. Allen West instead...it's just sad.


[ Parent ]
Please let it be.
That really annoyed me too.

Or let's find an African American in the district who isn't named "Clay" to hold the seat.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
From a liberal or progressive point of view, has Clay done anything impressive in Congress?
Both Clay and Carnahan got to Congress by their last names, but I tend to think Carnahan is a better legislator than Clay. What would be interesting would be Carnahan beating Clay and holding the seat until 2014, and Carnahan losing to a black state legislator type who didn't have the same family connections Carnahan and Clay did.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Clay's been a back-bench progressive.
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
So what kind of Dem would vote for Carnahan, and what type would vote for Clay? (exclude race from the reasoning, just ideology)


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I don't think a lot of voters
Vote based on ideology in primaries. I mean, a) your average voter seldom tunes into the issues at that level of detail and b) usually there aren't clear ideological differences between candidates in primaries. Also, Dems don't divide along the kind of tribalist fault lines that you see in a lot of GOP primaries involving establishment candidate vs. teabagger.

That said, of course, ethnicity can play a very big role in Dem primaries in a way that it usually doesn't in GOP contest... but your question specifically sought to dial that factor out.


[ Parent ]
I would add a countervailing c)
The average voter doesn't vote in primaries, right?  Those that do are probably more likely to be interested in ideological differences.  But they're also interested in petty rivalries, ethnic loyalty, and the intersections of those things.  "No Middle Ground", by Seth Masket (who also blogs at enikrising.blogspot.com) is an interesting look at party primaries...the thesis (or one of them) is they tend to be low turnout enough to be effectively dominated by one or two loose networks/machines (at least in California, which is what the book is about).  So, for general elections, the voters are low-information and tuned out, but for primaries, they're probably higher-information and more tuned in.  Question is, how much.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Carnahan always having to bust his ass
to win his primary probably would make him a more effective Congressman than Clay right off the bat.

[ Parent ]
Graham is starting to be erratic
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Looks like someone is scared of Tim Scott or Mick Mulvaney


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Or lost their marbles.
He wants to act like a complete jackass because 50K were cut that affects SC.  Well, guess what, you wanted cuts, Graham, this is what cuts do!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Oh, I thought he was whining about not cutting enough.
Really Graham? You're just begging for a primary with Jim DeMint as your Senior Senator, and conservative favorites like Mulvaney and especially Scott in your state.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
I used
to respect Graham but now I think he's a crybaby. I mean he walked away from the Cap & Trade bill he was working with Lieberman and Kerry on because Reid moved immigration reform forward in the queue and then he whines he's voting against the START treaty because Harry Reid held votes on DREAM and DADT repeal.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Graham
He didn't walk away from cap and trade because of immigration, he walked away from cap and trade because of the tea party.  DREAM and DADT were just an excuse.

[ Parent ]
Whatever.
He's toast in 2014 no matter what he does.  

[ Parent ]
I have no argument
with you on that contention.

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
Tea party is shaking their heads at him for this.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah, my bad, see my comment above clarifying.


I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

[ Parent ]
Interesting counterpoint to the "acting stupid" observation
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
My guess: any Boeing expansion in SC depends on it
It was quite a coup for SC to get the 787 assembly plant. But given the part sources, any Boeing expansion there depends on the ability to bring in large parts through the port.

[ Parent ]
I like this take
"Erratic" might be an apt term for Graham's tactics and behavior thus far but if he delivers then he has a great story to tell in 2014, both in the primary and general elections.  I can't imagine a wheel this squeaky won't get such a trivial amount of money slipped back into the CR.

[ Parent ]
What nonsense.
Why on earth would Republicans be against something like that if it would be so good for their state? We aren't talking about government jobs, it seems. We're talking about infrastructure. And now that's way too extreme? How insane. At least Graham has his head on straight.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: McCaskill raises over a million.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/m...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Hard evidence
that she's become a "Washington insider" who's abandoned Missouri to trounce around the country on a Learjet at taxpayer expense and make all of her money from the DC liberal Establishment at $1,000/plate dinners with Planned Parenthood and Satan.  

At least that's what it will be when Murdoch is done with it.  


[ Parent ]
I believe NPR was at the dinner as well
If you're going to recite the guest list, make it complete.

[ Parent ]
and of course ACORN is still manipulating elections from beyond the grave


[ Parent ]
Mathematicians write paper on apportionment
See http://arxiv.org/abs/1104.2137.  I kind of hoped that I could have the niche of Icelandic combinatorics and congressional districtology to myself, alas.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

Exclude the last . from the link
http://arxiv.org/abs/1104.2137

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the fix (nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
SMS polled Hirono and Hanabusa too
See the video at the link.

These polls are stupid at best.
Someone has to know that only one of the two congresswomen will run, not both. It would seem Mufi wants to run. I say more power to him. It will split the conservative vote and allow one of the two (Hirono) to win.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Full(er) Results
Really annoying that they didn't give the whole breakdown in the writeup. For anyone interested:

Case: 22%
Hannemann: 17%
Hirono: 13%
Hanabusa: 10%

700 RVs
MoE 3.7%

Possibly more interesting is the fact that they mention that they also did a GE poll, with Case, Hanneman, and Hanabusa leading Lingle. Hirono conspicuously not mentioned, does she underperform in the GE? But no numbers, it's terribly frustrating.


[ Parent ]
It's true, Ben Tribbett does want to run for State Senate
http://www.bluevirginia.us/dia...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I'm rolling my eyes at that one
I swear, the Virginia blogosphere is a bubble inside a bubble to think this a. is a good idea and b. would actually go anywhere.

[ Parent ]
NLS
I like his blog for its micro-detailed parsing of VA demographics and election results and forecasts, though recently when I've read it it seems to mostly consist of rumor and trumped-up "scandal".  I've only found it of interest recently due to redistricting.

However, due to Tribbett's habit of constantly bashing Democrats, including the VA Senate Majority Leader, for alleged transgressions (often relating to not being progressive enough), I wonder how well he'd work with others or get anything done if he did get elected.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8


[ Parent ]
It used to be the go-to blog for that kind of analysis
but lately it's just become a joke. He used an extremely convoluted set of numbers to try to argue that one of the seats in the new State Senate map would be vulnerable to ex-Del. Jeff Frederick. He used results from, I believe, five different elections to make the argument. It was ridiculous.

[ Parent ]
Cyclone...
Looks like Cyclone may have a "tough" decision to make. I just don't see him being able to be the only candidate announced thus far in Arlington County Board member Barbara Favola. I don't see anything wrong with her but I am sure that Ben has some trumped up anger at her for something. I'd worry that we'd have to sweat that race if he were to win the primary as otherwise the Dem should be the favorite.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Oh, it's all Dick Saslaw's fault
It always is.

[ Parent ]
Ben on my ballot is definitely not fun. My decision is 90% made with the exception...
...being if either someone else gets in who impresses me more than Favola, or, God forbid, Favola somehow proves pre-primary to be a disaster worse than Ben.  Given that Favola is a county supervisor already, she obviously has proven something good about her political skills, so hopefully she'll be just fine, but occasionally there are elected officials who don't belong there and you wonder how they ever got there.

I withheld doing any research on Favola until Patrick Hope made a decision whether to run.  Not that I would've reflexively supported him, either, but I figured there's nothing to do until we know who the choices are.  We still don't know since Ben hasn't decided, but he obviously very badly wants to run.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Favola is fine
She isn't going to be a vocal in your face progressive but I think that she would be a great in the state Senate. I think that she would be a great team player for team blue especially in a relatively blue district. I also see her as someone with crossover appeal. Someone like Ben would have no crossover appeal which would be somewhat of a worry if Arlington voters stayed home big time. Ben exaggerates how much of a swing district it will be but the Dem nominee will actually have to campaign and it likely will be contested by the GOP as compared with having just the compacted Arlington district.

As for me, I am relatively sure that I am going to support Rob Krupicka in my Senate district open seat primary.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the information. And the irony of Ben saying...
...it's too much the swing district is that Ben himself can't win if that's true.

If he could eek through a primary in the old Arlington-only rock-solid Dem SD-31, he would win in November easily.

But I can't imagine him playing at all in my precinct, which is Democratic-leaning but Ben's temperament would hurt him here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yep
He doesn't really have the temperament for elected office, especially in the new 31st.  Of course, I don't think he could win a district entirely within Arlington either.  

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Rick Nolan
My recollection is that he didn't run for reelection to Congress in 1980 after endorsing Ted Kennedy over Jimmy Carter --not a good way to make friends in Mondale's home state.

Connecticut HD 148
Monique Thomas was a teabagger, so if you add in the Dems and the green for us and the Republican and the indy for them, it's 63-37.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


I know Jane Harman is no longer a Congresswoman
but her husband Sidney just died from complications of leukemia at 92. RIP.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/b...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


Wow, she married old
That's sad for her.  At 65 she lost a spouse and probably has a decent amount of years left.

[ Parent ]
oh
I only saw his name and age and I figured he might have been her father.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Indiana with old numbers
IN-01: 63.2 (old 62) nudges up a bit at the expense of IN-02 I assume, but nothing big
IN-02: 49.4 (old 54) the obvious target, Donnelly is weakened considerably, but not as much as he could have been
IN-03: 42.9 (old 43) no real change
IN-04: 44.4 (old 43) a point more Dem probably still safe GOP
IN-05: 46.5 (40) a big shift.  Looks like it comes at the expense of making both IN-02 and IN-07 redder.  Should still be good for the GOP but I'm not sure Burton will like this.
IN-06: 43.5 (46) becomes a bit more GOP, not that Pence really needed it.
IN-07: 66.3 (71) drops considerably but probably more to do with having to expand into swingier suburbs rather than any malicious intent, still we are getting towards a district that Bush might have come close to winning.  I still like our chance here long-term though given the trends of most other districts based around mid-size rust-belt cities and their suburbs (KY-03 comes to mind).
IN-08: 48 (47) Believe it or not they actually improved it for us slightly.  I think this is because they simply had to put Southern Indiana Democrats somewhere so they couldn't do much for Buschon.  This district's competitiveness has gone on for decades under both GOP and Dem maps, nothing really changes here.
IN-09: 46.1 (49) The GOP wisely tries to prevent another flip here...still looks to be in range of a takeover but they must be counting on the long-term trends of districts like this to move away from us.

This gave me a chuckle
My cousin goes to the U of Minnesota and asked me if I knew anything about what's going on in Wisconsin because she has to write a paper on it.  Um, yeah!

Brian Schweitzer theatrically vetoes bill that would have ended same-day voter registration in MT
Wow, that's ****ing badass!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Man I love that guy .
I think its because repubs flipped a chamber last year.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
You
know I really don't get why people want to make it harder to vote. I mean shouldn't we go out of our way to encourage people to vote? What could same day registration possibly do to hurt anything? Now I can understand being for photo ID laws- I don't agree with it as it is a grossly uninformed viewpoint but I can understand it all the same. But I don't get what the big deal about same day registration is. It hurts nothing and I can't think of anyway it possibley leads to any sort of voting fraud. Thank God for Schweitzer.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Same day registration=Democrats do better
that's why they don't want it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah.
I can't think of any other reason. I just do not see any way it hurts anything. Are they saying it creates fraud or what is their excuse?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
That is their excuse, it seems.
All of these measures about identification seem to be based on the idea that there's a lot of fraud going on or a lot that could be doing on, despite the fact that there's just no evidence of anything widespread happening. This isn't to say that nothing ever happens, but there's no organized effort to try any funny business. When anything does happen, it's individuals acting on their own, and I can't think of any instances where it made any difference at all. And overall, a lot of the requirements seem reasonable, and would be were it not for the fact that they could prevent a large portion of people that can't get the required materials to get the identification. These people, shock of all shocks, happen to be largely Democratic. If they can't vote, guess who benefits?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Damn
I love this guy!  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
We got new maps from . . . TEXAS HOUSE!
Texas State House (150 members)

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Click Select Plans, then Base Plan, then choose Plan H113. Off the Kuff has a good summary for Harris: http://offthekuff.com/wp/?p=36208
Texas Tribune includes everything: http://www.texastribune.org/te...

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Interesting
I just found out the UK will be holding a referendum on May 5th on whether to switch from FPTP (First past the post) to AV (Alternate Voting). Anyone here know it's chances of passing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Neck and neck, but the trend seems against
[ Parent ]
That was the deal that the Lib-Dems demanded...
...to give the conservatives their majority.

[ Parent ]
Fundamentally
I hope it passes. Labour is too awful, and the Tories are a bit too far to the right for me. Many believe that it will allow for the LibDems to perform better than they have been, as do I.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I've grown fond of AV mainly because I've been focusing on Australian politics lately. But it definitely could change the balance in razor edge contests like in Australia (which is the only major country to use AV). Though there's a hitch to the whole UK AV proposal, it won't force voters to redirect their preferences to other candidates like what they do in the Aussie states of Queensland and New South Wales. The rest of Australia and Federally makes it mandatory for voters to redirect their voting preferences. So if it passes in the UK, it probably won't result in a radical shift in the electoral landscape. But let me redirect you to a good article written by Australian electoral expert Anthony Green:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politic...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Wow this has received virtually no press here...
I'm almost embarrassed that I didn't know they were going through with it since I read the BBC's online edition. I thought the Lib Dems had just given up on it in exchange to utterly destroy their public image govern in the coalition.

It's a shame they aren't holding a referendum on some form of list proportional representation.

NC-06/NC-04


[ Parent ]
Personally
I'd save the proportional representation for the House of Lords when they finally decide to move out of the dark ages.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
The dark ages?
at least that body has very little power anyway... giving it democratic legitimacy is the last thing they should do, but there's probably little political will to formally abolish it.  I would imagine the Conservatives would do everything they could to block PR since that would most likely lead to Labor led coalitions for a considerable time.

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
As opposed to destroying
Their public image by keeping a discredited government in power? They were screwed either way.

[ Parent ]
There
is currently a facebook page to draft Brad Ellsworth to run for Congress again in the 8th. It has been up for a day and already has 100 likes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

State Democrats clearly
want him to run again in the 8th.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Well obviously.
We do not have much of a chance without him. The only candidate equally as strong would be Mayor W and he isn't running. Of note is that Ellsworth did lose the district last year and Buschon won pretty comfortably so I would probably give the edge to Buschon. Though I definitely want Ellsworth to run though, you never know and we have nothing to lose.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I mocked Ellsworth rather ruthlessly for losing the 8th
But I think he could beat Bucshon unless the cycle's awful for Dems, especially with the 8th being made slightly more Democratic. I'd be surprised if he actually ran, though, what with the new job and all.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
14 Democratic Congresswomen plan
to fast in protest of budget cuts to federal food aid programs for poor women and children.

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


Hawian Democrats have lingering resentment towards
Case, according to Hannabusa.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


Ooooh, GOP vote to abolish Medicare as top 2012 campaign issue???......
Omigod, TPM is reporting, http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo... that the GOP House is set to vote this week on Paul Ryan's budget, and expected to pass it.

I'm just stunned.  This is a budget that would abolish Medicare.  They're really going to stick their necks out on that?

Charlie Cook, http://www.nationaljournal.com... already said recently that GOP strategists are shaking their heads at this and see it as an opening for the House to flip right back to Dems in 2012.

I know some people here trashed Charlie Cook for his early 2010 prediction that the Dems would lose the House, but frankly I think the trashing is misplaced.  He based his opinion on what Democratic insiders themselves were telling him, and they and he were right.

No doubt Republicans will think they've got their own sledgehammer against us on taxes, by way of Obama today drawing a line in the sand on extending the Bush tax cuts on income above $250K past next year.

But I like our posture on this and, looking ahead, would rather be us than them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Corrected link on Charlie Cook commentary......
Don't know why it didn't work above, but here it is again:  http://www.nationaljournal.com...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I read that...
...and was going to post it this morning.  The fact that Cook is starting to root for us is a very good sign.  He helps shape media opinion and if the good trend continues from him them we could be in much better shape than we thought!

[ Parent ]
BTW, did you read David Frum's analysis of Obama's speech?
It was fantastic:

How Ryan set up Obama's comeback
"Whatever you do, don't serve to his backhand."

"Don't be nervous. I have the new Ryan serve. It's bold!"

"Trust me on this. Don't serve to his backhand."

Thomp. Wham.

Ryan's response was rather amazing, too.  He all but gave up the fight.  I think he's still dizzy.


[ Parent ]
All but gave up?
Where did you read that?  Is it on TPM?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yep
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal shortly before Obama's speech, Ryan said that he held out hope only for modest deficit deals with the other side.

"Because we have such a difference of opinion on health care, it's hard to imagine we're going to have a global agreement," Ryan said. "Everyone wants to get a grand slam, but maybe we can get a single or a double."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ryan seems to be in a daze... I guess Obama really did rope-a-dope them, 'cos they certainly didn't see that one coming. (neither did I, I must confess).


[ Parent ]
Stu Rothenberg jumps in, too...
The 2012 Senate class includes 23 Democrats and only 10 Republicans, and the stunning imbalance means that Democrats will be on the defensive throughout the cycle unless the political environment shifts dramatically to their party.
That's possible, of course, especially if the proposed budget offered by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (Wis.) alienates swing voters and seniors, putting GOP House and Senate candidates on the defensive for the rest of the cycle.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues...

Sweet!!


[ Parent ]
Almost feels like President Obama just secured Florida
Along with other higher average age states... If Ds can follow through on this, AZ should be in play too, maybe even MO.

[ Parent ]
Good to hear.
So much I want to say, but I was away from the computer all day and now a little buzzed. I just hope that the Republicans are dumb enough to do this.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
They are....
...and they know it's going to kill them, but they are going to do it anyways...  Those idiots campaigned on restoring Medicare cuts and they are going to push this?  Unbelievable chutspah!

I'm sorry I didn't respond to your long post last night.  I was already asleep when you wrote it, but today turned out better than expected, eh?  On Monday, I was preparing a eulogy for the New Deal!

Like I've said many times, president Obama is very, very politically talented.  If I get frustrated with him is that he often refuses to use his talents.  Today he did, and I thank him for it.  Now, we need to follow through.


[ Parent ]
I think so.
I mean, as Krugman said, this is not a good starting point for a negotiation. And as DeLong pointed out, we are missing several key things, like a proposal for infrastructure spending and further stimulus. But it's acceptable if it's more or less the end point. I personally imagine some sort of further spending on infrastructure and similar things should the Democrats take back the House and keep the Senate, but that's me.

Along those lines, there have been several people suggesting that the easiest path is to, one way or the other, let all of the Bush tax cuts expire and let the health care bill stand. That seems like a possibility, and not only because the Republicans seem to be flaunting the fact that will refuse to deal.

Which, of course, might be the point. The budget cuts that were agreed on last week don't look like much of anything, and even if they were more significant than current reports of "smoke and mirrors" suggest, they aren't that big in absolute terms. But he probably bought himself a lot of credibility there, and with the speech today, which seemed to defend the welfare state but look bipartisan while doing it. If there are no future cuts of any significance, and if there's no deal on taxes, then things improve on their own, at least when it comes to numbers, as long as the economy keeps improving, albeit too slowly. The debt ceiling is the big wild card, but I'm seeing signs that maybe Obama is in strong position.

I'll have to read the speech and some more reaction to it to be sure, but while I am not sure I feel good, I don't feel bad. And that's something.

Now, it's time to go to bed. More tomorrow.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I only get frustrated by people on our side doubting him


[ Parent ]
Largely agree, but I'll admit I've been nervous......
You never know for sure how a pol will handle a new situation.

And for Obama, these first few months of the 112th Congress are a new situation.  That he had such a bad midterm that hurt his party very easily could have made him gunshy.  Clinton in '95 was a more experienced pol than Obama, and Bill still acted more gunshy than Obama is acting.

So I'm relieved Obama decided to go for a strong ideological stand in support of the safety net and government as a force of good.  I think with today's electorate, that's a smart posture.  It's not 1995 anymore, and also in contrast to Clinton, Obama has a Democratic Senate that will back him on this.

Plus their demand to abolish Medicare is just the ultimate cudgel to use against Team Red.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Ads Against Republicans re Medicare
Should the House be dumb enough to vote on this, when should the Democrats start attacking them on it? We don't want the power of this to diminish by election day, of course, especially since there are seniors in every district in the county and it could be the end of a lot of political careers if used effectively.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The ads need to be timed to late summer......
This is all part of FY 2012 appropriations, with FY 2011 ending on September 30.

So we're talking brinksmanship for August and September.  That's when the ads will fly, and when "Republicans want to abolish Medicare" will be the most potent to voters as the full-year budget battle maximizes free media coverage.

Of course, it's possible somehow some of this is tied to the debt limit ceiling, but I doubt it.

I actually think Obama might just accept a token surrender of something or another on the debt ceiling.  The Republicans have to surrender and raise the debt ceiling anyway, and everyone knows that, and they really just want to be able to walk away from that debate with some token victory in exchange.  If Obama gives them nothing, it's a pyhrric victory, because it forces Boehner to be more demanding and more intransigent than he would be otherwise in the FY12 appropriations battle.  And that battle is more important, that's the battle that sets the stage for the Republican Presidential primaries and the 2012 election up and down the ballot.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If people like LordMike are happy, Obama is on solid ground......
From what I've seen so far, the centrist types are happy with Obama's speech and posture on this.  A united center-left coalition makes for a clear majority in our country.  So Obama did well.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It can't be the opening bid.
As Krugman said, if the final deal is somewhere between this and Paul Ryan's "plan," then it's a no go. But if he can stand firm even while paying lip service to moderation and bipartisanship, and the Republicans are even more unwilling to budge than they are now, then he should be fine.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't think they have much of a sledgehammer
There is majority support for letting the upper income rate expire.

[ Parent ]
It was definitely a potential sledgehammer this past winter because...
...the tax rates expiration issue stood in isolation, and the refusal to accept compromise ultimately would have hurt us more than them.  That's because the masses care more that their own taxes should not go up, than that rich people's taxes should go up.  That's why Obama gave the 2-year extension, in exchange for some spending items including unemployment benefits.

To defang tax hikes as an issue, Obama needs it coupled with something else that looks "not liberal" to give him extra political leverage.  Making it part of a broader deficit reduction package is the coupling he needs.  If he can argue letting the tax rates expire on the wealthy while also finding ways to cut government spending, short-run and long-run, that combination is something that gives him an edge in public opinion.

Either nothing happens, or he forces a GOP surrender on taxes.  Democrats, and the country, win either way.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Eleventh Dimensional Chess
There's some suggestions being floated that Obama simply let all of the Bush tax cuts expire. If that were to happen, and health care reform were to be in place, we'd be in reasonably good shape. We should have tax reform that does some combination of rate lowering and/or base broadening via closing loopholes and deductions, and perhaps rates could be lowered back to where they are now, or even lower for the middle class, were that to happen. But it would happen in Obama's second term, if he were reelected. And if he keeps holding tight, making small but seemingly significant moves towards "the center," he might get it because of those moves. It's hardly the end of the world if we go another few years without higher taxes, so it is more like a downpayment on being reelected. One big key in all of this is the Republican refusal to do much of anything but cut and slash, which they seem to be happy to provide us with.

This isn't a perfect theory--indeed, it's a little clever by half--but there's something appealing about it. It makes a certain amount of sense, if you assume the key is to get reelected, take back the House, hold the senate--while at the same time, the Republicans are self-destructing. It'd be thinking for the longer-term, which is supposedly what Obama is good at. Which is why I am so partial to this idea.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I suspect Democrats up in 2014
Are less keen with that idea.

[ Parent ]
2014 Democrats
Well, no, nobody wants to be on the record as raising taxes. (It's only slightly less awful than hurting puppies, after all.) But right now, Obama seems to only want the tax cuts on the rich to expire. He and presumably most other Democrats want the rest of them extended. I don't see that changing were they to expire. They'd probably campaign, whether in 2012 or 2014, on extending them or lowering the overall rates if possible, were that to be paired with some sort of reform. In fact, perhaps it'd be better if they were to expire because the Republicans refused to budge on the rates for the rich. It'd give the Democrats something big to run on in either election.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Que
the laughter, Rick Santorum forms a presidential exploratory committee:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


I just made my first journey
to RRH. There is a lot of bashing of SSP, commenters, and David's "power trips".

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Hrmph.. teenagers...
Always bashing their parents.  Do they not realize that SSP are their founders? Without David's help and encouragement, GOPVOTER never would have started RRH.

[ Parent ]
Most of the RRH mods defend SSP overall
(Gosh, I think there are 5 of them...)

At the moment, both sites share the same IP address, which normally means different virtual servers on the same machine.  


[ Parent ]
Not really my kind of place.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
No kidding.
Everyone's favorite Russian is being hailed as a hero by everyone.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Best not to get too worried about it
SSP suits me just fine, so those folks can do what they like on RRH; it certainly doesn't affect me any. I guess we should probably try to keep the cross-sniping to a minimum, though. Most of the admins over there have always struck me as upstanding folks, at least from their activity on here, and I personally don't want to bash their site too much just because of some of its commenters and their conspiracy theories about DavidNYC.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I'm not even sure why I looked.
I've had a migraine for hours and this isn't helping.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Yeah
After coming up to speed on some things that have been written, I can definitely say I see where you're coming from.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Not everyone
I counted at least three different users who told him that he had it coming. I was probably the least polite about it, however....

[ Parent ]
Your right.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Obnoxious
Their patience over there will soon wear thin with the holier than thou attitude.

[ Parent ]
Now that the now former SSP user has more time
on his hands, I suspect

RRH will soon feel the full brunt of the redundant repetitive Russian rabbledash.


[ Parent ]
Partisan smack talk over there doesn't bother me......
The only times I've gone to RRH is when someone here links to a thread there on a topic that interests me, and that's been just a couple times.  I don't have an account there.

But smack talk is part of politics, and if they're keeping a lid on birtherism and other bigotry and conspiracy theories, mere smack talk otherwise doesn't offend me.

After all, that's what RRH is for, a place where Republican campaign junkies can be Republicans.

This, to me, is where politics meets sports.  Yes politics is actually critically important in life, sports not so much, but still let's face it, we're all here at least partly because we enjoy politics as sport.

And in that regard I think of these sites the same as rival college sports team sites, my favorite Cyclone Report juxtaposed against the Iowa Hawkeyes' companion site on the Rivals network.  There is smack talk on either side, that's just a natural part of the atmosphere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Used to bother me all the time
To some extent, exposing myself to trash talk is like a personal test.

There was a time where I might have reacted to some political trash talk in this way http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/h... ....  (anyone remember Zidane?)  


[ Parent ]
I knew it!
I was just about to comment to a previous post alluding to that possibility. Don't give a shit personally.

[ Parent ]
AZ-06: ex-Rep. Salmon running
Not that we have any hope here anyway. The only reason I even clicked on the article when I saw it is I though the "ex-Ariz. congressman" who was planning "run for his old district" was gonna be Mitchell.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


Also, fun fact
Rep. Salmon's son, also named Matt Salmon, is dating the second cousin of Rep. Flake, Kent Flake. Two families members of successive representatives from the same districts getting together would be a mildly interesting coincidence, but the fact that those family members are gay and the representatives are from probably the most Mormon-heavy district outside of Utah is pretty wild.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Quibble
The most Mormon districts outside of Utah are Idaho's 1st and 2nd.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Source?
I'm not denying it, I'd just really like to know. If you're just guessing, that may well be so, but don't underrate how Mormon the Mesa-Gilbert-Queen Creek-Chandler Heights corridor is.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
.
I'm searching. Idaho is around 27% Mormon total with the proportion increasing the further south you are. The 2nd is definitely more LDS than the 1st and has been represented by a church member since 1951.  I'm not sure I'll be able to find anything definitive. The general list of "Mormon seats" are the three (now four) Utahan district, the two in Idaho, the Mesa district, Northern Nevada, and Western Colorado. Wyoming is sometimes included.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link
A good read.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
My name is Salmon, like the fish
First name, Matt.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]

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