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April 5 Election Results Thread #2

by: jeffmd

Tue Apr 05, 2011 at 10:15 PM EDT


10:13pm: Thread trois.
10:10pm: A few more votes from Madison have trickled in, bringing KloJo back into the lead. However, the swing is still only 2.84%, less than what we need.
10:01pm: At the halfway mark now, and Prosser is now underperforming by about 3.5%. That number needs to clear 5% for KloJo to win.  The Milwaukee burbs, however, are still the laggards here, at 23% reporting.  However, the number of votes in Waukesha seems a little out of wack, as taking them at face value suggest that turnout is 8 times higher today than in the primary.
9:56pm: With 65% reporting for Milwaukee County Exec, Chris Abele is leading 61-39.  I think we can chalk this one up for Team Blue.
9:48pm: With 42% reporting now, Prosser's assembled a 52-48 lead, or 19,000 votes.  "Outstate" - if there is one - is reporting and not being the friendliest to KloJo. Potential areas of improvement include the college towns in La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point and Madison. Despite their repugnant redness, the Milwaukee burbs are swinging 8.36% towards KloJo - more than what's needed.
9:39pm: Back to Chicago for a second, a few incumbents lost tonight: Bernie Stone and John Rice for sure, and possibly Fredrenna Lyle in the 6th.  The Republicans might be going 0-for-50, with both would be GOPers losing, by 260 votes in the 41st and by 31 votes in the 45th. [And Sharon Denise Dixon in the 24th. No love for Rhymefest though, who loses to incumbent Wilie Cochran.]
9:29pm: Things continue to move slightly in KloJo's favor, with Prosser doing 3.2% worse than before.  Hopefully, the trend continues.  Prosser is underperforming in all areas except Dane County - which is explained by the fact that Madison has yet to report.
9:22pm: Prosser's doing 2.4% worse than in the primary. However, the MKE suburbs's are only 8%...which leaves plenty of room for him to pad his lead, sadly.
9:17pm: Chris Abele continues to crush for MKE County Exec, now 61-39 with 28% in.


It's a progressive party.

Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
jeffmd :: April 5 Election Results Thread #2
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April 5 Election Results Thread #2 | 184 comments
Incredible
with none of the city of Madison reporting, Klop has more or less matched Kerry's Dane County numbers. Go, Kloppy, go!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
yes !
it appears almost all Dane reporting EXCEPT Madison:

http://www.countyofdane.com/cl...

[ Parent ]
Stone campaign reports...
...that the turnout in the city of Milwakee was massive and are very worried.  Maybe those precincts will report in later.
KloJo winning Kenosha Co
53-47... most of the precincts reporting.

This is looking like its going to be VERY similar to Kerry v Bush in WI. The margins in Dane and Waukesha will decide this.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

Damn the
Supreme Court race is going to be a fight to the end.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
I'm supposed to be doing work
stupid Wisconsin, having an interesting election...(or stupid me for being a politics nerd I guess)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
same here
working on a huge essay due tomorrow. and I got a friend on the mayoral in Vegas...

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
A break from SCOW
SC: The dem wins 52-47.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Green County is done!
Kloppenburg wins by ten.  By comparison, Tom Barrett only won by 1.3.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
55-45 for Klop, 52-47 for Kerry.
excellent! Klop really is overperforming a lot in the counties near Madison.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Juneau County 16/29 in, 55/45 for Kloppenburg


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Uh oh
Ozaukee, the Republican suburb of Milwaukee is reporting and it is not looking too good:
Ozaukee 14/48 9,661
74% 3,480
26%

Bush won 66% there in 2004

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

19/31 precints in Douglas
All of Superior is in now. They went 73, 77, 71, 71, 71, 70, 75, 75, 65, and 73 for Kloppenburg. She leads county wide 70-30.


21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
The AP is behind, but thanks for posting this.
If she wins 70-30 that's good news, Kerry won the county by 66-34.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You're welcome.
The Douglas County site has been a lot faster than AP. Here's the link - http://wi-douglascounty.civicp...

Click view other items to see the individual precincts.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
One county is finally all in
Green gave Prosser 45.5%, while he got 48.3% in the first round; he dropped 2.9% according to my spreadsheet (rounding errors...). Not enough for him to lose, but luckily for Kloppenberg the swing isn't uniform; Prosser is currently doing about 9% worse in Kenosha, for example.
Brown is 87/88 in
54.8% Prosser, 56.5% in the first round, 1.7% drop.

And to give you some good news, Klop is doing really well in Outagamie; it's 69/95 in and Prosser has dropped 12% there.

[ Parent ]
That's really bad
for Kloppenburg in Brown County.  Obama won easily there, and she wasn't even able to improve on Kerry's lackluster effort.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Kerry still won Wisconsin
It's not really bad

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Brown County is Republican on average
It was a place where Obama really over performed, as 2008 was a less neutral cycle. The Bush-Kerry numbers are far more useful.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Bush won Brown 54-45, so it's pretty much
another case of Klop matching Kerry.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
WI
So, whats the general consensus?  The front pagers seem very nervous, but the posters more optimistic, this is crazy.

29/D/Male/NY-01
the general consensus is that this one will be close
Klop is matching or exceeding Kerry's numbers (especially in the area around Dane County), but a lot of this will hinge on the Milwaukee suburbs, which haven't started reporting in force yet.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Consensus is
This thing is going to be extremely close. I think everybody can agree on that.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm
not feeling good. Then again I was pessimistic of this race from the start.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
and the narrative is totally fucked
If we lose this race it's apparently a blow to Dems even though we were never expected to win it. But hey, that's politics. And I still have hope Madison will come in and give us a decisive victory

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Shouldn't have been tied together
Walker and the GOP state senators should have been the main focus. I hope they don't sneak by because people assume a possible loss here is the end.
[ Parent ]
Didn't
K--- go too negative or something?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
K did no such thing, the outside groups had one ad that perhaps backfired with some voters......
The 3rd-party indy group that put up the ad attacking Prosser for letting a sex offender go many years ago saw one of the offender's victims personally do a response ad in defense of Walker.

That's really the only ad volley that might have hurt Kloppenberg, but no ad of hers was involved.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
They are necessarily tied together in fact, so must be also in politics......
The WI Supreme Court now has to decide if the union-busting law followed proper procedure in the legislature.  The law's very validity hinges on this.  That's why the Supreme Court race is hot.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If Dems never expected to win it
they didn't make that very clear
[ Parent ]
Not a single public poll
I can't remember the last election of any significance like that.
[ Parent ]
I don't think that's reality, and reality is what matters because...
...not only is Kloppenberg keeping close a race that had been a Prosser blowout, but Abele is winning big--much better than I thought.

We are doing well tonight and this bodes well for later.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
amen to that
I was worried Republicans might actually get their act together and make the Midwest competitive next year, but feel much better about it now

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Johnny Longtorso's bellwether county, Price
is 52-48 Prosser (went 50-49 Kerry), but only 54% in.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Why
are the Milwaukee suburbs so much more GOP than other northern burbs?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
I'm
no expert at Wisconsin political geography, but would the northern suburbs be located near the still friendly Democratic rural territory?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
It has confounded WI political scientists for a while now
MKE suburbs have not seen the same shift that has occurred in Chicago, Philly, Detroit, Pittsburgh suburbs. Part of it has to do with less minorities. WI is still a 90% white state.

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
Just a guess
I'm just guessing here, but I think this might be the nasty part of the legacy of busing (or, rather, anti-busing reaction).  I suspect major white flight from Milwaukee proper into its suburbs and exurbs.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
the
Milwaukee burbs seem to vote like a Southern burb.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
This has puzzled me too for a while
My main theory is the influence of the early German Republican. The suburban cities around Milwaukee - before they were suburbs, were small towns with large numbers of German immigrants, who at the time were a major Republican demographic. This influence has stayed with the region for a long time. Milwaukee itself turned out much differently, with socialism (actual socialism, not Beckian notions of socialism) becoming a major force in the city after the turn of the 20th century, and with it being a major city for people of many ethnicities, it became a solid liberal city surrounded by conservative Republican towns.

Curiously, Madison's suburbs aren't favorable to the GOP at all. In fact, going west from the city, even past Dane county and out of the metro area, many of the counties are reliably Democratic.  

[ Parent ]
Scandinavians?
I wonder if that's the Scandinavian heritage of western Wisconsin that accounts for the rural Dem lean in that part of the state.  I know the Norwegian-American areas from Eau Claire down to the Coulee Region around La Crosse typically elect Dems or more moderate Republicans.  That might extend down to the southwestern part of the state that has historically (I think) voted GOP, but maybe moderate GOP?  Might they be a midwestern version of Rockefeller Republicans?
[ Parent ]
This seems likely to me
This also happens in rural Minnesota.  St. Cloud is more conservative and German, while the Iron Range is more Scandinavian and also, maybe, more union.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Eastern Wisconsin
Eastern Wisconsin has always been the more conservative part of the state, so I wonder if a combination of white flight from Milwaukee proper; combined with the typically conservative nature of suburban and, especially, exurban dwellers; and then the historically conservative nature of residents from the Green Bay area down to Milwaukee (I mean this in a very broad sense) resulted in a particularly high concentration of conservatives.
[ Parent ]
Winnebago almost 1/2 in, going 55/45 for Prosser


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Bush/Kerry was 53/46 n/t


Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
it went 53-46 Bush
so not a reason for concern, not yet anyway.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Good or Bad?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Well, that's two points worse than Kerry/Bush


Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Mixed


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not a good night to be an incumbent in Chicago
4 of the 10 incumbents lost, 3 by blowouts.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
WI-SC: Are there many absentees for such an election?
It may come down to that....
Don't most judicial races favor incumbents?
I thought usually the incumbent was only tossed over scandal or if there was a strong upticket move in favor of their party, like Iowa last year.
Yup, rare for incumbent judges to lose, but it happens occasionally. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Usually
but this is not a usual election
[ Parent ]
To the general public it might be
They probably don't associate Prosser with what the legislature and Walker did.
[ Parent ]
Looks like I was totally wrong about Las Vegas...
Ralston thinks Goodman will do better than two-to-one over the second-place finisher. Very close between Brown and Chris G.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
More comparisons
Winnebago 57-43 P, 52-47 Bush
Rock 41-59 P, 42-58 Bush
Pierce 43-57 P, 49-51 Bush
Iowa 39-61 P, 42-57 Bush

Overall still a mixed bag but those rural areas seem to be leaning towards Kloppenberg.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Prosser camp sees "positive signs"
According to WISC reporter David Douglas' Twitter feed, the Prosser campaign sees "positive signs"

Prosser campaign says they see very "positive" signs at this point, but there is much left to come in.

In particular they're pleased with strong numbers in Brown County, where Prosser leads by 55% with just one precinct not in.

Prosser camp also happy w/and watching Outagamie County, and Ozaukee County.

http://twitter.com/#!/News3David

Waukesha County is a glaring omission there
Wonder why?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
They always say that
by sounding hopeful. It's a very close race. Let's wait until the ballots are counted.
[ Parent ]
Are they looking at the same Outagamie that I'm looking at?
It's 3/4ths in and he's dropped 11.6% from the primary.
[ Parent ]
That sounds like weak tea
They must be worried.
[ Parent ]
Bad news bears
Marquette County (54-45 Bush) is 89% in and voting for Prosser 57-43. Ironically it borders Columbia County where Klop is significantly overperforming Kerry.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Luckily, it's a small county.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Election isn't even over yet
and already commenters on FireDogLake is blaming Obama.  
For what, the race is neck and neck???


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That place is a nuthouse.
And that is putting it nicely.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
What do you bet that's the narrative on most of the blogosphere tommorrow?
If Prosser wins, the people at Dkos/FDL will lie all the blame at Obama's feet for not getting more involved.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
And if Kloppenberg wins
they'll blame Obama for something else.
[ Parent ]
They'll blame Obama for it being so close
Or maybe they'll just go back to blaming him for KSM or whatever the complaint du jour is.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Oh of course
After a day of gloating over high turnout in Madison, we're gonna hear tomorrow about how the base didn't turn out because "there was no leadership in DC" or something

[ Parent ]
What would Obama gain
by getting involved in a state Supreme Court race?  I appreciate FDL's passion and all; but, when it comes to political and electoral strategy, their ideas would lead the party off the cliff.
[ Parent ]
I have to remind myself all the time that those whackadoodles at FDL and elsewhere...
...including a large crowd at DailyKos although that site is so large they can't truly dominate, are not reflective of most of the left.  Most on the left are with the President and practical about what can get done within the boundaries of political reality.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Lay the blame where it belongs....
...it's all about Citizens United and Kloppenburg being badly outspent.  And of course we never would've had that decision without the purity trolls who stupidly voted for Nader back in 2000.  Unfortunately the FDL'ers are not the first set of those on the left who prefer "moral victories" to actual ones.

Of course this isn't over.  I'm still hoping we pull it off.  Prosser is so tempermentally unfit to be a judge that it defies logic to see him re-elected.  I'll admit I had a bad feeling about this race.  Just kept my mouth shut since this is one I was hoping my gut was (and hopefully still is) wrong about.

But I'll unfortunately say what I said before.  It's too early to bury Scott Walker yet.  Everyone is assuming that he'll be a pushover and everything will be easy.  When you've got billionaires throwing massive sums of money like it's confetti that isn't necessarily a safe bet.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
FWIW
Brown County, where Klop lost 55-45, was down more than 50% turnout-wise from 2004. Green County, where Klop won 53-47, cast about 11,000 votes this time around as opposed to 18,000-ish in 2004. So that might mean turnout is falling more in Republican areas than in Dem areas.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Brown County
 Is all in with a 10 point lead for Prosser.
As for Dane County, it is
Dane 65/248
22,979 34% P
43,642 66% K

No word whether those votes are from Madison.

As for Waukesha, 10% in and 17,000 vote lead for P. That suggests turnout there was really high or all the EVs were counted.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

65/248 is about 1/4
if those vote totals quadruple, it will be about the same number of votes as in 2004!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Dane County
Everything I've heard/read says those votes in Dane County are from the non-Madison parts of the county.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
[ Parent ]
No votes yet from Madison
at least according to the Dane County website. Link towards the top of the thread.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
another FWIW
Sauk and Columbia counties, where Klop is overperforming, are together about the same size as Ozaukee County in suburban Milwaukee. even if Prosser finishes slightly ahead of Bush there, Klop's overperformance might cancel out Prosser's.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Good news
Still hoping Hizzonor's margins shrink in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties.

Once more of Madison and urban Milwaukee County start coming in, Klop might manage a bit of breathing room.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
GREAT news
Bayfield County, on Lake Superior, is all in and voted for Klop 67-33. it only voted for Kerry 60-39!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Not really
Prosser got 31% in the primary there, so he actually improved by about 2%.
[ Parent ]
But as TheUnknown pointed out
Klop overperformed even Obama there.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Northern Wisconsin
It is a lot like northern Minnesota, and the UP. Attacks on unions are not exactly an olive branch in that part of the world, and it won't win you a lot of friends.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Done in Bayfield
67-22 Kloppenburg (better than Obama's 63.1% there)

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Chris Abele (D) is gonna win MKE County Exec
race, per a friend at the Democratic Party of WI.

Joe Parisi (D) is winning the Dane County Exec race. Race was just called.  

Nice
Especially since apparently earlier this afternoon the Stone campaign was already preparing for a transition to office:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

[ Parent ]
Outagamie County
76/95 in and the margin is 56-44 Prosser vs. 54-45 Bush. I take that as a good thing, since Prosser is from Outagamie County (Appleton, though his hometown paper had bad things to say about him in their Kloppenburg endorsement.) Turnout looks to be like 1/2 of 2004.

Overall Wisconsin, turnout looks like 1/2 of 2004 in general, the question is Madison (Dane County) and Milwaukee+suburbs, where it's hard to tell (not enough data), but turnout there looks like it's more like 80-100% of 2004.

I'm skeptical "home county" matters in a judicial race......
A judge isn't a legislator, Prosser isn't hosting townhalls or speaking at all kinds of civic events or doing constituent service.  The judiciary is very sheltered from the public, by design.  Who knows what kind of campaigning he did, but it wouldn't surprise me if not many of the voters in that county on either side even know it's his home county.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Home county matters a lot in these races
A huge factor in non-partisan races is simply knowing a candidate.
[ Parent ]
Ah, the Joe Miller curse strikes again.
As you'll recall, Joe Miller tweeted about buying new furnishings for his presumptive Senate office after he won the primary.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Prosser was elected a couple of times there
He was county DA for a while, then State Assembly for a couple decades, then ran for U.S. House, but lost in 1996. So he definitely has connections to the area.
[ Parent ]
Ah, thanks, I forgot that he had a political history there, not just a legal one. So that's significant, yes. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Jeff
Sharon Dixon also lost, 60-40.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
In case this goes to a recount
Ballotpedia says that in Wisconsin, there are not automatic recounts, but if the election is within 0.5% then the losing candidate can get a state-funded recount. Right now it looks quite possible that will happen.

Male, VA-08
Damn This Is Gonna Be Close.....
The Brown County and Outagamie County figures strike me as very similar to where the tick-tight John Kerry-George Bush race was in Wisconsin in 2004.   It all depends on whether turnout materialized in Dane County or not.  The fact that we've seen nothing yet from Washington County, the state's most conservative county, is troubling.
Slight bad news
Bellwether Price County (50-49 Kerry) is 54-46 Prosser with 69% reporting.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Sigh
At least I discounted exuberant reports of heavy turnout.  
Why? The outcome's not known yet.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The tea leaves are . . . not amazing
Just a few hours ago some people were predicting a ten point blowout based on turnout anecdotes. I feel sadly vindicated in ignoring that.  
[ Parent ]
High turnout
That always seems to end up being anecdotal, one way or the other. Sometimes I wish that there were no reports of early activity or exit polls or anything.
[ Parent ]
Waukesha County margin continuing to regress toward Bush/Kerry numbers...
As Justice Prosser now has 73% there, with 42 precincts out of 198 in. President Bush won there with over 67% of the vote.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Waukesha County margin continuing to regress toward Bush/Kerry numbers...
As Justice Prosser now has 73% there, with 42 precincts out of 198 in. President Bush won there with over 67% of the vote.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Something is wrong in Waukesha.
70K votes have already been counted.

190,000 were cast in 2010.

And yet we're supposedly only at 42/198 precincts.

Probably means most of Waukesha has already reported.

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
Maybe the large precincts in Waukesha have already reported then
huh.

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
That's what I'm thinking...
Or maybe heavy early voting.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Or the AP totals are just fucked up, which has happened in the recent past......
AP just screws up sometimes in their election result tables.

If I had to put money on it, I'd bet that's what's happened here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The numbers are the same as from Waukesha County website
They don't give how many precincts they've counted though, so it's possible that's off.
[ Parent ]
Brown County incredibly revealing
Posted in other thread but...

Bush 67,173  55%... Kerry 54,935  45%
Prossner 33,319  55%... Klopp 27,206 45%
Multiply x2 would be 66,638 vs 54,412, which would be 535 for Prossner and 523 for Klopp.

If you double the Prossner and Klopp numbers, they come out to be 535 less for Prossner than Bush, and 523 less for Klopp than Kerry.

That's phemonally similiar, and thus good news for Klopp.

Winnebago 56/76 in, going 52/48 for Prosser now


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Here are some more exact figures
for the completed counties. These numbers are today's vote totals as a % of '04 totals. It doesn't adjust for population shifts, but still worth a look.

Bayfield (67-33 Klop): 59%
Brown (55-45 Prosser): 49%
Green (53-47 Klop): 59%

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Kenosha is 97/99 in
Klop is winning 54-46 (Kerry won 52-47). She's almost certainly matching or overperforming him there.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Still two precincts out, but kenosha much lower turnout than half of 2004
Klopp at 15k votes, Kerry got 40k

Much lower turnout than Brown county, unless those two precincts are huge, so this is bad news for Klopp.

[ Parent ]
Justice Prosser now thumping Klop in Sheboygan County...
58-42, 28/58 precincts reporting. Bush/Kerry numbers were 55/44.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
36/58, margin unchanged.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg likely wins Kenosha County
With just two precincts left, she leads by eight there.  Walker won by 3.7 there in 2010.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
How do you guys know
which precincts specifically have reported? Wisconsin SecState site?

It's 4:52 am here but I went to bed early, woke up and now can't sleep. Works out because I can follow things now.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Kenosha's about done
97/99 in, 45.7% for Prosser, that's a 10.2% drop from the primary.
Nice To See All of Ashland County Hanging Out There.....
Judging from the numbers in neighboring Bayfield County, that should be big for us.  A lot of Eau Claire County hanging out there still too.   I'm cautiously optimistic for a narrow good guy win.
If Mark of all people is optimistic
we should all be optimistic!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NARROWLY Optimist....
....it comes down to turnout in Milwaukee and Madison versus turnout in Waukesha and Washington Counties at this point.  The vast majority of the vote is still outlying in both.
[ Parent ]
The whole state is about 43% in
Dane is only about 1/4 in, whereas Milwaukee is 1/3. Some of the Republican counties are behind too though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Taniel just tweeted something's fishy with the Waukesha County numbers...
"@Taniel Something wrong in Waukesha: 70K votes are in with only 21% reporting. Only 185K votes were cast in 2010. So it has to be far more than 21%."

Hmm...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
50% of Kerry numbers = about 115,000 votes
42/198 and Waukesha shows 68k votes... so less than 50k more votes from waukesha coming.
[ Parent ]
Taniel says it may be an artifact of early voting...
being counted up all at once...
[ Parent ]
Waukesha now 50/198
but 83k votes... meaning only 32k or so more votes coming from there.
[ Parent ]
Klopp Narrowly Leads in Swingy Chippewa County.....
....that's a good sign for Eau Claire County just to its south which is much more Democratic.
Speaking of which
with 88% reporting, bellwether Price County is back down to 51-49 Prosser.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Madison Numbers starting to come in
Klop up to 70% in Dane County

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
What a beautiful sight
N/t

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
She could actually do better than Obama there!
Amazing.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Klop up to 71% in Dane County
http://www.countyofdane.com/cl...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Polls have closed in Nevada


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Marquette County fully in
56-44 Prosser, it went 54-45 for Bush, so a slight drop. 47% of 2004 vote totals. So that means we have two Dem counties which were about 60% of their 2004 totals and two Rethug counties which were just shy of 50%. So let's not be too quick to laugh at people who predicted high Dem turnout.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Also tiny Florence County in the north
63-36 Bush, 62-38 Prosser. 47% of 2004 turnout. I think we're seeing a clear trend here of higher turnout in Dem counties.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Dane County precincts in just doubled
And Prosser's lead is at about 1,000 based on the AP numbers.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Marquette County is done.
56-44 Prosser.  Walker won 58.1 to 39.7 there in 2010.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Comparisons again
Winnebago County 52-48 P, 53-46 Bush. +3 for K
Vernon County 44-56 P, 46-53 Bush. +5 for K
Shawano County 63-37 P, 58-41 Bush. -9 for K
Rusk County 52-48 P, 50-48 Bush. -2 for K
Price County (bellwether!) 23/26 in, 1,213 P, 1,181 K 51-49, 48-51 Bush. -5 for K

Overall, still mixed results in the rural areas although they seem to be leaning towards Prosser a bit. Still, no calls on this race until Madison is in.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

I am actually getting optimistic
she is overperforming in some counties and underperforming in others, but for the 3 R and 2 D counties that are fully in, the turnout was higher in the D counties.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Waukeshau County
Earlier in the day, it was reported turnout could be "as high as 35%" here That would translate into ~90,000 votes total.

The vote numbers in AP are the same as Waukeshau County website, so I assume they aren't off. But to reconcile both statements, we have to assume Waukeshau County is actually 90%+ in.

if that is the case
that is actually good news(the total vote in would be definitive where our side is still well under 90% FINAL)
[ Parent ]
Agreed
It'd actually be impossible for Waukesha County to only have counted a quarter of its votes.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Agreed
It'd actually be impossible for Waukesha County to only have counted a quarter of its votes.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Klop just took the lead
We're up 4,000 with 45% left to go

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
the trend is in our direction
can we get there? the dem county overperformance is a good to see(and it would appear underpeformance in red areas)
Kloppenburg retakes the lead!


Male, VA-08
Monroe County almost done.
Kloppenburg leads 185 votes (two points) in a county that Scott Walker won with 57.8% of the vote.  Two precincts remain.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Monroe?
Wow, Ed Thompson territory.  That's a good sign, I think.
[ Parent ]
If It's Still 50-50 Even After All The Big Cities In....
.....we should have the edge with some of the rural counties that have yet to report at all so far....Ashland, Crawford, Iron, and Grant should all be pretty good for Klopp.
Douglas is pretty much done.
30/31 precincts. The last one has 801 registered voters. Kloppenburg wins 70-30, 8408-3719, 47% turnout (only down 10% from November).

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
that is the dem overperformance
that is clear to me
[ Parent ]
Abele Declared Winner
NBC TMJ4 news has a checkmark by Abele.
Dane is at 71-29 K now with 143/248 precincts in according to AP n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Prosser only barely ahead in St. Croix
He leads by two with one precinct left in a county that Walker got 61.5% in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Turnout perspective
From the WisPolitics.com Election Blog:

With 52 percent of the vote in, there have been just more than 820,000 votes tallied.

In 2008, 830,450 votes were cast as Michael Gableman beat Justice Louis Butler.

In 2009, 793,864 were cast as Shirley Abrahamson beat Randy Koschnick in her re-election bid.

http://elections.wispolitics.c...

Before we start the fireworks
 I just want to remind everyone that Washington County is 0% in.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Not any more...
10/38 in now, 73-27 Prosser (ouch).

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
[ Parent ]
Diffence between AP and Dane County Websites
is a net of 35,000 votes for Klop

Klop up 73-27 in Dane County

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

St. Croix county is one precinct from done
and voting 51-49 Prosser despite being a 54-45 Bush county. and this is a pretty sizable county too (Twin Cities suburbs I believe).

Vilas county in the north is also fully in, and is a slight drop from 58-41 Bush, at 60-40 Prosser. But it was also only 50% of 2004 turnout, continuing the trend of lower turnout in Republican counties.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

I'd say more like exurbs.
I think Stillwater (where Bachman's from) is right across the river.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yep
It is.
[ Parent ]
Abele has beaten Stone! Milw J-S calls it, with Abele up...
...a crushing 62-38 with 81% reporting.

That's a bigger win than I think anyone expected.

For the record, I did think Abele had a better shot than Kloppenberg, but I figured the variance would be much smaller than it's been tonight.  Of course Kloppenberg could be performing comparably to Abele in Milwaukee County.

As far as I'm concerned we should declare victory tonight.  Kloppenberg had a very steep climb to knock off Prosser, and even if she narrowly loses it can't be anything better than a sigh of relief followed by continued nervousness looking ahead for the Rethugs.  Meanwhile, Abele's big win is telling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

I'm going to go out on a limb and say
I'm optimistic about Klop too. she generally seems to be overperforming in more places than she underperforms, and turnout is much better in Dem areas than in Rethug areas.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
If Klop loses narrowly
We should definitely try to frame the narrative as "we won Walker's old office by more than 20 points". We need to keep morale up for the recall efforts which were always the biggest battle (and one that we have at least as good a chance of winning).

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Very true
The media will focus on the worst, as will a lot of Democrats, but Abele's win alone is a real feat.
[ Parent ]
It is?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that's true, Abele-Stone got plenty of national play in its own right including tonight......
Amy Walter retweeted Dave Weigel calling the race for Abele, with Walter commenting that Dems made that race a referendum on Walker.

And Walter has serious clout in the campaign media.

I think the political media knows the Dems showed up tonight, even if Klop doesn't quite pull it out (and she still might).

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Trivia of Madison's Democratic strength
If you want to be wowed by the motivation in certain parts of Madison, check the Dane county link
http://www.countyofdane.com/cl...
and look for the returns from Wards 32-38.

The city as a whole is turning out immensely for Kloppenburg, to be sure. But those wards in particular... just check it out

Grr
I wish the damn site would load for me. Probably too many people on it.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Are these the UW districts?


30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Interestingly, they're not.
They're all directly east/northeast of the Capital, which itself is east of the UW Campus. This area probably has some students, but not as much as other areas. Much of it is just normal residential area. The main noteworthy thing is that Willy Street (Williamson Street) is in this area, which has a lot of countercultural stores; but other parts of these wards look just like your typical residential neighborhoods.  
[ Parent ]
Lead is holding at bout 4k
Despite Eau Claire and Dane not adding new precincts.  

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Saw Our First Ten Precincts Out of Washington County Come In.....
Prosser takes the lead on the weight of that.  The good news is we finally got more than a quarter of the Washington County vote accounted vote.  It'll be our worst county.
Washington County
Starting to come in. AP has Prosser up 10k overall now. Ten of 38 precincts have reported from Washington.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Terrible news from Menominee
Kerry won by 1100 votes so we would be hoping for 550... but Klopp wins by 100.  Only 382 votes total, while 2004 had 1700.  That's totally dismal.  Tiny place, but still in a close race that 450 votes could be huge.

Not much Native American support for state workers I guess.

Journal-Sentinel has K up 1,400 now with 66% reporting n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Looks like it was more Dane Co. precincts responsible for that
182/248 in from there according to AP

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Well...
No matter how it turns out, no one can complain that it's not exciting!  Wonder why there are no votes from Fond Du Lac yet?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
I can understand Door County having zero
since the best weed in the state is grown there, "Door County Dynamite", but the Fond du Lac gaja break is puzzling.
[ Parent ]
Door
Door just came in; Prosser improved a bit on Bush's 04 numbers.  Hope the weed was good for 'em.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Kenosha 100% in, more low Dem turnout
Same percentages as 2004, but Kerry got 40k votes, and Klopp only got 15,803... way underperforming the 50% threshold.

75,700 Bush/Kerry
29,600 this year

Only about 40% of 2004.  Ugh.

Can't Say I Like Where This Is Going.....
Most of Dane County is in while still a small number of Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha are in...and none of Fond du Lac.  Unless there are some indigo precincts left in Milwaukee, I gotta give the edge to Prosser right now.
April 5 Election Results Thread #2 | 184 comments

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