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April 5 Election Results Thread #3

by: jeffmd

Tue Apr 05, 2011 at 11:13 PM EDT


11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.
11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs...and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%....which is getting VERY close to what we need.  Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn't particularly outstanding - 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.
10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts...with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%...which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.
10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts....but no more votes.  Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26.  This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.
10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported.  Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo.  The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.
10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average).  Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us - across the state, it's about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).
10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump.  We're still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.
10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.
10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. ...but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee - 71% of the total population.  This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.
10:16pm: That last update wasn't great for KloJo, who's now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.


Let's keep going...

Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
jeffmd :: April 5 Election Results Thread #3
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April 5 Election Results Thread #3 | 182 comments
Las Vegas
6% in, Goodman leads with 40%, with Brown barely ahead of Chris G (both at 17).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
If we lose the Supreme Court race
But pick up MKE county exec and Chris G makes it into the runoff, I'll actually be okay with that.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg wins Iron County by ten.
Walker won it by eight in 2010.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
more overperformance
for the 'good guys' in red areas
[ Parent ]
Kerry only won it 50-49
44% of 2004 turnout there. Only 22% of 2004 turnout in Menominee County.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
still a ways to go folks
gonna be close.........
My gosh
I sometimes wish we could get all the results instantly, and then there's a part of me that loves the anticipation!....

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
why did we so massively underperform in Menominee County
not that it matters b/c it's tiny but we only got 63% in a county Kerry got 82% in. I guess Klo wasn't popular on the rez.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
Incumbency effect? Lack of party labels?

[ Parent ]
that is simply a gotv issue
this race is all about gotv for both sides(prosser are simply surrogates)
[ Parent ]
prosser and klop are surrogates

[ Parent ]
Low turnout
of course, only 50% of 2010's turnout.  
[ Parent ]
Native American reservation there, I believe
Nobody showed up to vote, it seemed.
[ Parent ]
Prosser won Menominee in the first round with 46%.

[ Parent ]
Kenosha's officially all in
53-47 Klop, 52-47 Kerry. It has bucked the turnout trend though, only 39% of 2004 turnout.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Kloppenburg up by ten in Richland County.
One precinct left.  Walker won it by seven.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Last update looks like it was Washington County
10 of 38 in, 73-27 for Prosser (21.5k to 6.5k).  Ouch.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
Hopefully
 The turnout there is not 100,000 votes which from extrapolating the data, could be the case. Anyway, it seems like that similarly in Waukesha County, the later precincts do not have too many votes.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
only 390 k PEOPLE live in Waukesha and only 131k live in Washington
There's definitely something funny going on with the reporting there. Both should be mostly in, meaning most of the Milwaukee burbs damage has already been done with half of Milwaukee county and Dane county still remaining  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
I don't understand
I don't understand the obsession with the "underperforming" number. Since the turnout is different - and the difference is unequal depending on the counties, there is no way to compare the %ages exactly to determine who will squeek by. I mean, it is an indicator but it takes a slightly higher turnout in a popular and pro-Dem county - say Milwaukee - for the 5% underperforming number not to be necessarily the threshold to cross. Am I misunderstanding something?
those numbers
are simply a 'baseline' for analysis(this race is going to be close)
[ Parent ]
Winnebago 73/76 in, going 52/48 for Prosser


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Really close
To the 53-46 for Bush. Which means keep all eyes on Miami Dade...er Madison and Dane.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee has a swath of votes yet as well.
So it isn't only Madison

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Is the over/under performance done by county or precinct?
And do you consider turnout differences too?
Iowa County all in
62-38 Klop, 57-43 Kerry. 49% of 2004 turnout.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Looks like underperformance in Milwaukee
Can we expect this to improve?  
underperformance in Milwaukee is headscratching
especially with the Dem winning the County Exec race in a landslide.

[ Parent ]
I worry a bit about the lack of party labels
I know straight ticket voting is hugely important to the percentages in, e.g., Philadelphia.  
[ Parent ]
Depends
the further south those votes are from, the more likely we are to start doing better.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Milwaukee is super racially polarized no?
Wouldn't it depend on whether the black precincts were still out? (I have no idea if they are)

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
Prosser won 54% in Milwaukee in the primary
so he's actually underperforming those numbers by about 10%.
[ Parent ]
If I recall
the city of Milwaukee always takes a while to count and report and make us wait with anticipation, just like most other major midwestern cities (especially Cleveland and St. Louis)

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Interesting
My experience with Pennsylvania is that Philadelphia reports and then you wait for the bleeding to stop as the rest of the state comes it.  
[ Parent ]
Actually Ohio is like that too
Cleveland reported very early in 2008 and 2010, putting Obama up 59-40 with 5% in, and putting Strickland into the lead, a lead he held for most of the night until the rural areas finally came through for Kasich late.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
What the hell is going on with the reporting totals...
In Washington, Ozaukee, and Washington counties? They should be practically tapped out by now, by the numbers.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Richland County
1 precinct away from being done, 55-45 Klop, 51-48 Bush

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I'm noticing a pattern...
Of Klop overperforming Sen. Kerry's numbers in almost every county that's fully in or nearly so.

Makes me even more suspicious of the numbers from the Milwaukee suburbs, which look like they're on track for WAY over presidential (!) turnout.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg back in the lead.
1,400ish vote lead with 64% in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
NO WAY
those turnouts of the entire population are correct(smoking a little ganga in the BOE if you ask me)
Kind of Wisconsin Assembly-related
Getting in the weeds here, but still interesting:  Republican Wisconsin State Representative Kathy Bernier of the 68th district, which covers northern Eau Claire, plus Lake Hallie and a good amount of rural area (she defeated Democrat Kristin Dexter in November by 78 votes out of 21,380 cast) is also the Lake Hallie Village President.  Not for long, though.

Bernier lost the Lake Hallie Village President race 49-46% (621 to 584 votes).  It's non-partisan, and I have no idea if the winner (John Neihart) has any party affiliation of his own, or if any part of the race revolved around Bernier's votes in the Assembly, but, for what it's worth, she lost the other seat she was elected to.

http://www.weau.com/electionre...

I don't get what is going on with Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha Counties
All three of them are having the same issue with reporting precincts.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
It seems fishy, doesn't it?
The three most reliable big Republican counties all set for historic record turnout in a judicial recall election, all posting massive overperformances for Justice Prosser from President Bush's numbers in a presidential election year when the Republican base was energized.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
One precinct left in Juneau County.
Kloppenburg's lead is about 1.5 points off of Obama's 53.4% win there.  Walker got 56.4% there in 2010.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Waukesha
There are only 264K registered voters in the whole county.  311K turnout means Prosser's in Putin territory! And would make all the comparisons of Scott Walker to various despots... just about right.

http://gab.wi.gov/sites/defaul...

Awaiting a correction.

Voting errors...
That link, by the way, was for registered voters by WI county as of 12/28/2010. And again: http://gab.wi.gov/sites/defaul...
[ Parent ]
Next time the Republicans scream VOTE FRAUD
just scream back, WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT APRIL 2011 MILWAUKEE SUBURBS!

or not, you'd probably be gasping for breath after that.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Add Dogde County
to the list of improbable results. 48K registered, on pace for 51K votes.
[ Parent ]
Someone is really dropping the ball on the counting here...
Either that, or we're seeing massive and systematic vote fraud in Republican strongholds.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Doesn't Wisconsin have same-day registration?
Or if not, just how up-to-date are registration numbers from December 2010?  I mean, given how high-profile this race has become, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a sizable chunk of people who finally decided to register to vote since January.
[ Parent ]
That's what I was thinking
It's got to be an error though, they wouldn't be stupid enough to be that obvious with manipulation.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I doubt any malicious intent
Errors happen in reporting.  If it is a close race, the error is usually found quickly.
[ Parent ]
to be clear
I am awaiting a correction. I believe the QA systems are pretty good. If you're going to steal votes, don't make it so that you have over 100% of registered voters. That may tip some people off ;)
[ Parent ]
Rock County
all in. Decent-sized county south of Madison, 58-41 Kerry, 60-40 Klop. So far, the Madison area seems to be the engine driving Klop's machine, along with the area up by Lake Superior.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Jeff Stone officially concedes.
Not really news by this point, though.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/m...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

More Comparisons
Lafayette is 47-53 P, 47-52 Bush
Kenosha is 47-53 P, 46-53 Bush
La Crosse is 66% in and 40-60 P, 46-53 Bush
Marinette is 59-41 P, 53-46 Bush
Oneida is 50-50 P, 52-47 Bush
Columbia is 45-55 P, 51-48 Bush

Except for Marinette and Columbia, the counties seem to be going toward Kloppenberg by 1 point over the Bush/Kerry nailbiter.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Counties with nothing reported yet, according to AP
Ashland 0/28
Door 0/32
Fond du Lac 0/77
Grant 0/52
Green Lake 0/16
Langlade 0/27
Pepin 0/11
Trempealeau 0/26
Washburn 0/25
Waupaca 0/38

Any commentary expected outcomes in any of these counties?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

well
ashland is heavily d, trempelau is union d country (actually they both are, as is pepin)

grant is another madison-area blue county
langlade is tiny and red, as is green lake.  washburn, waupaca, door are more swingy

fond du lac is red and somewhat big

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Grant is a Kerry coin flip
Waupaca should be like Shawano, the two reddest (decent size) districts in the 8th.

Fond du Lac should net Prossner 7k votes or so.  

[ Parent ]
Rundown
Ashland-Super Democratic
Door-IDK, probably about even
FDL-Super Republican
Grant-Slight Democratic lean normally, but JoKlo has been overperforming in that area
Green Lake-Super Republican
Langlade-Probably 50-55% Prosser
Pepin-Probably 55-ish% Klop
Trempealeau-Very Democratic
Washburn-Probably neck-and-neck
Waupaca-Very Republican

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Dane County
Bringing in more votes so now it is

Dane 182/248
40,087 27%
109,067 73%

Looks like Klop is overperforming in Dane County and the margin should probably continue to increase as Madison County continues to report. I am still worried about those suburban counties.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

What is going on in
Milwaukee county? I was expecting prosser to get stomped there, but he's actually doing better than Walker did.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
it's pretty polarized
the south is much more Republican than the north.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
If you look at a map from
1966, it basically flips with the north being more Republican than the south.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
As I said upthread, Prosser won 54% in the first around in Milwaukee.

[ Parent ]
Holy crap.
I thought he'd get destroyed even more than he did in Dane county.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
Probably a combination of
Affluent suburbanites not swinging against Walker as much as rural union voters, and low black/hispanic turnout.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
It's crazy, but we may lose
because of some inexplicable Prosser strength in Milwaukee.
Do we know
 Where those votes in Milwaukee County are coming from?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee is the big issue right now
Should be above 62% and is at 55%.  Probably can't win at that level, regardless of turnout.
[ Parent ]
Prosser overperforms Walker in Door County.
He won 53-47 to 50-48.4 for Walker.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Door's not that big
neither are most counties where Prosser's overperforming. Door had good turnout, though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And way overperforms 50% of 2004

[ Parent ]
Chippewa
I'm hearing Kloppenburg won Chippewa County.  Swingy, but tends to lean GOP from my experience.
Kloppenburg wins Chippewa
Walker won it by 15 in 2010.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Justice Prosser winning Sheboygan County 63-37 now
President Bush won there by 11 points.

The Milwaukee County numbers really don't look good.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Back to Nevada for a sec
45% in in Las Vegas, Chris G and Larry Brown are still fighting for second place, she's ahead by not even 200 votes right now.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
The Klop by 5k votes
That's my prediction for the night.  
What's your record?
I hope you are right...

I thought that the final would be within a few thousand votes, maybe within a few hundred, and that's what it looks like right now.

[ Parent ]
Mine
Prosser by 7k is mine.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Sawyer County fails to come in for Prosser
He's leading very narrowly with one precinct left.  By comparison, Walker won by over 17 points there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Ditto St. Croix
51-49 Prosser with one precinct left.  Walker got 61.5% there.  In fact, Prosser's numbers match MCCAIN's numbers.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
This is so schizophrenic
Some of these counties come in with huge underperformances or overperformances for each candidate, and without much knowledge of WI geography I can't put together much of a pattern. From what I can tell Klop is overperforming most in the Madison area and the Superior counties and Prosser is overperforming in the Milwaukee area.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg seems to be overperforming where the counting is done.
That's the important thing.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
She is also generally overperforming in bigger counties


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Fond du Lac County went 63-36 Bush in 2004.
Kloppenburg might improve on that, but I don't think she'll win it.
This race
Reminds me so much of Ohio in 2004. Long lines, big hyped Democratic turnout and a Republican surge coming out of nowhere that does us in. Hopefully, the last part of my sentence does not come true. Look what happened in Sheboygan though :(

Sheboygan 54/58
16,983 63%
10,101 37%

St. Croix 42/43
7,978 51%
7,743 49%

At least we are doing okay in St. Croix. We were supposed to get blown away there.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

No fair, you don't get to steal
[ Parent ]
St. Croix voted 54/45 Bush in 2004
a Democratic trend there would be especially nice as I believe that is in recall target Sheila Harsdorf's district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sheboygan is dismal
even if the remaining four precints seem like they should be largish (thus in the city)... only 27k votes so far... half of 2004 would be 31k.
[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg moved up a point in Milwaukee County


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
We're probably headed for a recount
so the issues in the Milwaukee suburbs will get a lot of attention.  Errors in reporting happen, but people will figure out something went wrong as the results are scrutinized.
Once the errors are fixed
I think this is looking like a true nailbiter. Hard to project... maybe Kloppenburg by a few thousand.
Walworth County
Just a few minutes ago it was 14/40 reporting and after I hit refresh, it showed up as 40/40 but the vote totals didn't change.  Just thought that was interesting since I think its down in the MKE suburb area.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
Re: Walworth County
I'd expect similar things to happen in Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha and Dodge.
[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing
Which would be great if it's true.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Looks like it's SW of Milwaukee
On/near the Illinois border.  Judging by the distance from the city, it does indeed look like suburban or maybe exurban Milwaukee territory.

Hopefully similar things happen with the other Milwaukee suburban counties.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

[ Parent ]
I am not familiar with Wisconsin's style of voting specifically
But I do know that in California, some polling places have more than one precinct. Perhaps in the Milwaukee suburbs, the precincts are consolidated too so people did not realize most or all of the precincts were in until recently.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Waukesha now showing 119/198
with no change in vote totals.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
Waukesha 70% in?
Looking through the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel results, they are reporting that in the race for another judgeship there, 70% of the vote is in (with vote totals roughly equal to the state SC totals), instead of the c. 25% of precincts being reported in the AP results.

Don't know if that explains the gross difference in numbers, but if it is accurate, it would make a lot more sense.

AP now shows
119 precincts in in Waukesha.  Moments ago, it was 52.  Vote totals did not change.  Someone caught the fuckup.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Washington
The Washington county numbers still seem inflated. 20k votes from 10 precincts?  
[ Parent ]
Looks like they fixed Waukesha

Photo Finish....
The numbers in three ugliest counties of suburban Milwaukee are at least now poised to be worse than anything John Kerry ever saw.  Prosser probably still has the edge with so much of Washington, Waukesha, and Fond du Lac still hanging out there and so little of Dane.
Appleton, WI - Home to David Prosser & Joe McCarthy
Outagamie County - whose largest city is Appleton, home to Prosser and, coincidentally, Tailgunner Joe McCarthy - is going for Tom Nelson in the County Executive race. It is a nonpartisan race, but Nelson is former Dem Majority leader is state Assembly who lost in 2010 race for LG w/Tom Barrett against Walker/Kleefisch. He is running against former state treasurer, republican Jack Voight. Unfortunately, the county is otherwise going to Prosser by about 55-45.

Outagamie County executive

92 of 95 precincts reporting
Tom Nelson: 21,190
Jack Voight: 18,857
Outagamie County clerk

At least they did one thing right tonight
Given what's happening in Milwaukee, it seems like Wisconsin voters are voting D at the local level even as they vote for a sexist judge who basically wears his partisan affiliation on his sleeve and throws temper tantrums.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
don't you see; it is prosser's HOME
that is not too impressive if you ask me(only 55% from the folks who know you the best?)
[ Parent ]
Outagamie went Prosser by about the same margin as Bush
Note that the county paper (Appleton Post Crescent) was very harsh on Prosser in its editorial Kloppenburg endorsement. But then again, Prosser did literally confess to a crime.
[ Parent ]
More from Waukesha and Ozaukee
119/198 and 26/48

Reality finally catching up?

Tell me you didn't stay up all night
for this.  
[ Parent ]
No, insomnia kept me up
I was considering staying up to see this through to the end, but I think rationality has finally won out there. Goodnight all.
[ Parent ]
Gotcha

[ Parent ]
at this rate
there will be a recount any way; go to bed
[ Parent ]
Waukesha ...
just went from 52/198 reporting to 119/198 but the totals did not change ...
Yeah, that was noted above
If this is the case for Washington as well some other counties that were extrapolating very high numbers, that would be fantastic news.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
DailyKos chimes in
 Obama better wake up if this is this close! (5+ / 0-)
He better get his butt to Wisconsin if this race is this close with all of that energy.

I am seeing the energy on both sides and in a presidential election with energy on both sides like 2004, he could lose.

We have to match the tea party energy of 2010, and I'm just not feeling that energy for Obama yet!

He better learn to juice his base up and not take them for granted!

Apparently liberals won't vote unless Obama holds their hand and takes them to the polls or something.

If they really need Obama to juice them up, they're already fucking hopeless as a political force

WTF is the deal
with your obsession with the disappointed left?  
[ Parent ]
That's not disappointed
that's delusional. we can't boast about high turnout one minute and then when the chips are down blame Obama for not turning out votes. It's stupid, petty, and quite frankly helps no one.

Again, if the left needs Obama to hold their hands, they're useless.  

[ Parent ]
If they're useless
then they're not worth discussing.  
[ Parent ]
you're right
they're not  
[ Parent ]
Then why even bring it up?
It doesn't seem like an appropriate subject for this thread.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Because it's so predictable and so counterproductive
the left always knows how to eat their own when the chips are down and why they can't see how much damage it does to their so-called movement is mind boggling. If the left spent half the amount of time they do pointing fingers at who among them is to blame, actually figuring out ways to reach people, change minds, and discredit the right, we might actually get somewhere. But whatever.  
[ Parent ]
Pot, meet kettle

[ Parent ]
Hey, I'm not the one blaming Obama
for what suddenly went from extremely high turnout to "a depressed base" as soon as the numbers started to look bad.

I'm blaming the people who should be blamed for a close election like this, the bitter, spiteful, hateful, bigoted, ignorant half of the country with the crab mentality the some on the left seem to think doesn't exist.

If we all did that and tried to figure out a way to, for lack of better term, rehabilitate them, then maybe we can move the Overton window.

But why do that when we can blame Obama or National Dems for not getting turnout to like gazillion percent or something. Because record turnout for a Supreme Court Justice race in liberal counties is not enough!  

[ Parent ]
Wrong thread for stuff like that

[ Parent ]
If you don't like
what you read, why do you keep reading? I'm mean do you really have a reason too? You have this site.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Looks like big vote from Milwaukee just came in

Yeah
and Klop is now up 58-42 in Milwaukee, compared to 55-45 earlier.  It wasn't just a big chunk of votes, it was a big chunk of heavily Democratic portions of the city.
[ Parent ]
Klop up 18k now
With Dane having added no new precincts.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
It was Milwaukee
but she's still only 58-42 there as opposed to Kerry's 62-37 win. better hope the remaining precincts are from the city!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, Justice Prosser
But it appears that 80% of Waukeshau County's total population will NOT be voting today.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
Kloppenburg wins LaFayette by four.
Walker won it by six.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
We're now out of recount range.
51-49 Kloppenburg.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Washburn goes 52/48 for Kloppenburg


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Milwaukee
City of Milwaukee website is reporting the following

298/312 precincts reporting

David Prosser 33,935      32.48%
Joanne Kloppenburg 70,178 67.17%

AP is reporting the following for Milwaukee County

Milwaukee 433/486
77,247 42%
106,034 58%

Unless Prosser is winning really big in Milwaukee County less the city, these numbers don't seem right and we should expect Kloppenburg to improver her numbers there quite a bit.

Milwaukee County numbers looking better
Kloppenburg at 58%, which is still below Kerry's number, but it's still better than what we were seeing before.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Dane County is only 77% in
and it's already cast 57% of the votes it did in 2004. Those reports of sky-high voter turnout were right!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Some very small precincts left in Dane
Don't know what the deal is but there are a bunch of precincts in Dane county that did not have many/any voters in past elections and they are mostly the ones that are out.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Even so
57% is a lot higher than many other counties, which have been reporting less than half of the voters they had in 2004.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Conservatives not liking the trend
From the Twittersphere:

Ben Smith at Politico re-Tweeted conservative blogger Dan Riehl (never heard of him, I don't think) with these tweets (all from Riehl's account):

A top source says no way Prosser finishes ahead tonight, likely won't concede - tht's not frm Prosser camp. (9 minutes ago)

Guys on ground in Wis not feeling real good. (9 minutes ago)

He goes on to assure a follower that his source is particularly reliable.

http://twitter.com/#!/DanRiehl

Seems premature
Given the trends in the Milwaukee suburbs, Prosser could net quite a few votes there.  That is, if the corrected numbers are actually the true ones, and there isn't further corrections to be made.  Just off the top of my head, looking at some of them...

Waukesha says it is a little more than half in, with 63K to 23K votes for Prosser vs. Klop.  If that trend holds up, the county could finish with something in the neighborhood of a 100K to 30K win for Prosser, which would really skew the results from what they are now.

Washington could be even worse, if it is only 25% reporting as it claims.  Prosser is ahead 21.5K to 6.5K, if we extrapolate that out the final county results could look like 80K to 25K.  That is a lot of votes still outstanding there.

Hopefully, the rest of Milwaukee comes in strong for Klop and gets her to 60% in that county, she really needs that.

[ Parent ]
I just noticed something
When you combine Milwaukee and Dane Counties, you get Milwaukee Dane. Sounds like Miami Dade.

Coincidence? You tell me.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

What's the deal with Fond du Lac?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
asdf
As Dave Weigel said:
Still no Fond Du Lac! What the Fond Du Fuc?


Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Nice timing n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Ha
As Dave Weigel tweeted a couple minutes ago:

Still no Fond Du Lac! What the Fond Du Fuc?


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Fond du lac and Waupaca
should give a net of 10k to Prossner.  Klopp ahead by 18k right now.
[ Parent ]
let's just assume
Fond Du Lac and Waupaca will give Prosser anywhere from 8,000 - 15,000 (rough estimate on my part)
[ Parent ]
Dont know but...
... it should be worth a net of at most 10,000 for Prosser (Walker carried it by 11,000).

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
folks; we are going to win this thing by about 3 %

Adjusting for erroneous counties
When Dodge and Washington adjusted to 80% reported (like Waukesha), Kloppenburg is over the 5% swing needed, and looks to have a small, but not recount-sized, margin of victory.
is Fond du lac red or blue? n/t

Very red
But as above commenters said, the margin it gives Prosser will be slightly less than Klop's current lead.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Red.
One of the few counties McCain won.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Is that the area dear Senator Grothman represents?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
No.
Hopper used to live there before he found his 25 year old sweetheart.
[ Parent ]
Red
Very red

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
It's pretty red
It's not quite as ruby-red as the Milwaukee suburbs, but it's fairly strong GOP territory.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Calling it for Klo
Milwaukee burbs numbers still screwy but Klo should net a loss of about 15k in Waukesha and 4k in Washington, which will be more than made up for by what remains in Dane. Rest of state should be close to wash --> narrow Klo victory

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
Hope you're right man


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Re: Calling it for Klo
(was posted above, meant it here)
When Dodge and Washington adjusted to 80% reported (like Waukesha), Kloppenburg is over the 5% swing needed, and looks to have a small, but not recount-sized, margin of victory.
[ Parent ]
Dane County
There is a net 5,524 vote difference for Klop between the AP website and the Dane County Website

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Waukesha County will be giving 9,000 votes to Prosser
roughly 15,000-6,000 Prosser-Kloppenburg from new results on their webpage, not on AP yet.
Waukesha County will be giving 9,000 votes to Prosser
roughly 15,000-6,000 Prosser-Kloppenburg from new results on their webpage, not on AP yet.
What's the matter with Vegas?
no new votes from there in a while

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
what happens in vegas stays in vegas apparently

[ Parent ]
Bit more of Dane just came in
KloJo now up by ~35k per the AP.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
Now an impressive 75-25 margin there
Gotta love Madison.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Ironically huge Dane county turnout will be what --> victory for Klo
Ironic because of all the poo-pooing of reports of high Dane turnout earlier in thread.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
What is really good
 With Dane County is that the precincts that are just coming in are giving Klo more votes than I originally projected. Looking at the earlier results, I saw a 70,000 vote margin from Dane County but those reports about the turnout were right. Madison turned out really strong!
The Democratic base has awakened!!

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Go Dane County!
more Dane precincts came in. They are voting for Klop 3-to-1 (!!!!!!!). Dane is only 83% in yet is already reporting about 2/3 of the vote totals it had in 2004. Compare this to the rest of the state where most counties only have about half the votes they had in 2004! If Klop wins her nickname should be "The Judge That Madison Elected."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I think the real story of the night
has been the way she's rewon a lot of the rural counties Walker and Johnson flipped in 2010. She's swept through a lot of rural Wisconsin, showing that this phenomena is not just an urban Madison liberal thing.
[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg up to 75% in Dane County
Just epic.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Dane already at 66% of 2004 turnout
waaaaaaay overperfoming the rest of the state.

[ Parent ]
Those Dane County numbers are looking really good
I think Klop may win this one. Still waiting on possible Washington County adjustment.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Still
41 more to go. If those precincts are from Madison which keeps pushing up Dane County's margin, we could see another 19,000 Democratic votes out of there. If FDL's numbers are correct, then Klo should be able to win! I am still worried about the Milwaukee suburbs.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Fond du Lac mostly in on county website
RUN DATE:04/05/11 10:35 PM

  JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT
  VOTE FOR  1
                                                  VOTES  PERCENT                                                     VOTES  PERCENT
  01 = DAVID T. PROSSER, JR.                     16,243    60.92     03 = WRITE-IN                                      29      .11
  02 = JOANNE F. KLOPPENBURG                     10,390    38.97

With something like 50/77 in (roughly)

So roughly
a net gain for 6-7k for Prosser in all likelihood.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
New Thread n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
More adjustments
7 precincts in Ouzakee County (suburbs) with no vote change
Fond du Lac is completely in
Kloppenburg with a statewide lead of 3,300 or so.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
The Milwaukee County Numbers Are Abysmal....
56% Klopp?  Really?  It's a miracle we're still in the game here.
April 5 Election Results Thread #3 | 182 comments

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