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MI-Sen: Stabenow in Better Shape

by: DavidNYC

Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 12:52 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/18-20, Michigan voters, Dec. 2010 in parens)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 50 (45)
Pete Hoekstra (R): 38 (44)
Undecided: 12 (11)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 48 (45)
Terri Lynn Land (R): 38 (41)
Undecided: 14 (14)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 52
Saul Anuzis (R): 35
Undecided: 13

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 52
Randy Hekman (R): 33
Undecided: 15
MoE: ±4.4%

Remember last week how I said that Sherrod Brown's new BFF must be John Kasich? Well, I'll bet Debbie Stabenow would love to take Gov. Rick Snyder out for a soda pop right about now. I can explain it all to you in one blockquote:

Party        December | March
Democrat:       35    |   41
Republican:     35    |   28
Independent:    29    |   31

Those are the party self-identification breakdowns in PPP's newest poll versus their last poll. And guess what? The March sample is almost identical to the 2008 exit polls, which was 41 D, 29 R & 29 I. It's simple: If our voters come back, we win. And if guys like Rick Snyder, John Kasich, and Scott Walker keep helping us, they will.
DavidNYC :: MI-Sen: Stabenow in Better Shape
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MI-Sen: Stabenow in Better Shape | 49 comments
Lets not count our chickens
This may all be transitory. But for the moment things look rosier than they did right across the board. Would be nice to see recruitment news in other races mind.
Precisely
The numbers suggest Likely D, but, in reality, I think it's more like Lean D. Stabenow's lucky the GOP field kinda stinks. So long as Obama wins (though I'm anticipating a single-digit victory), she should be fine.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
If these numbers hold up...
It looks like another double digit blowout for Obama. While I'm saddened and angered by the wreckage Snyder and Walker are pursuing, at least the silver lining is that the Dem base is regaining enthusiasm as Indies swing back our way.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Obama has a hard time talking up his accomplishments
He should win MI by double digits bc he saved the auto industry, but we'll see how much he talks up one of his amazingly successful bailouts.
[ Parent ]
Why only a single digit victory?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
In December, MI-Sen looked like...
It would be a genuine tossup and yet another tough seat for Dems to hold. So even with this just leaning Dem, it's a huge improvement. And (crossing fingers!) if these numbers hold up and Snyder's bloom continues to fade, Michigan may end up a likely hold for both Stabenow and Obama again.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
pop
In Michigan people just say pop, not soda pop. Anyway, those numbers are about what I expected given Snyder's struggles.  

41, Ind, CA-05
And here's your requisite pop/soda/coke map...
Click for full size...

Check out the strange split in WI.  No wonder there is a little civil war going on there.

[ Parent ]
Wow, North Carolina
looks more broken up than the Balkans. Also, pop is stupid, it's so annoying. No one in the south would ever call it pop. Everything is usually called coke, but sometimes people will say soda if they are worried about being misunderstood.  
[ Parent ]
"Favourite son" drinks!
Plus, there's a favourite son effect in play! I knew Coca-Cola was invented in Georgia, and I wonder whether that might have something to do with why Georgia and the South are fairly red on here. Had to look it up, but Pepsi is from NC, so maybe that explains it's colouring.
[ Parent ]
Technically Coca-Cola
hails from Vicksburg Mississippi. I say this because I've been to the drug store where it was invented.  
[ Parent ]
that's an awesome map, thanks for sharing
also, how do you order a pepsi in the south?  a pepsi coke?  coke pepsi?  the anti-coke (wouldn't that be water or milk)?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Not being from the south, I would guess..
"A pepsi" would work just fine. You don't say pepsi soda or pepsi pop in the north.

The question is, how do you order a coke?

Does the following conversation take place?

- Could I have a coke?
- What kind of coke?
- Coke, please.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not really.
If it's self-serve, you may hear "Coke" used in a generic sense, but if the restaurant serves the drinks, you'd be specific.  Granted, I'm from a part of the South that's seen a major influx of Notherners and Midwesterners, so it may not be typical elsewhere in the South.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
No, no, you're right
It's really not that confusing. Whenever you talking about "soda" in a generic sense you just casually say coke. As in, your grandmother saying, "You can only have one coke a day." When you're ordering one from a restaurant you use the brand. I want a Pepsi, I want a Dr. Pepper, I want a Coke. etc
[ Parent ]
The south
People here definitely use "Coke" as the generic term. In restaurants that only serve Pepsi you'll still hear people order a "Coke". When the waiter asks them if Pepsi is okay, it'll either be "okay" or "is Monopoly money okay?" (not always in such rude terms, of course)

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
Just a Pepsi
The same way you order it in the northeast. You will hear this dialogue though:

"Would you like a Coke?"

"Sure."

"What kind?"

"Dr. Pepper."

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It goes like this
Normal Establishment
"What'll you have to drink?"
"A coke."
get a coke

Coke/Soda in Conversation
"There's a party tonight, what do we need?"
"Get some cokes."
buy  a 2 liter of coke, sprite, dr. pepper, etc

Pepsi Establishment
"What'll you have to drink?"
"A coke."
"Is Pepsi okay?"
Likely answer: "I'll have a Dr. Pepper." Less likely answer: "Sure."

In short, no one orders Pepsi here (Texas, Houston or D/FW). Coke dominates the southern economy. What you want, you ask for by name. It's Coke, Diet Coke, or Dr. Pepper. The term for "Coke" as soda is due to 1) It's what we want usually or 2) It's a generic term when multiple soda/pops are being mixed together (as seen in my second example conversation)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
.
Love the Dr. Pepper comment.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I'm a southerner and I actually like
Pepsi more than Coke.  
[ Parent ]
...
Well then! You are a member of a very very small minority.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
A minority too small to be covered by VRA
(Redistricting jokes!)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
that would be an interesting debate
This map unfairly packs Pepsi drinkers into a single district!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My late partner was from South Carolina
and she would not drink Coke (or sweet tea). Yet, she was politically to my left.
[ Parent ]
Ditto
I also like Aquafina more than Dasani and Mountain Dew more than Mellow Yellow.  The only Coke product I like more than its Pepsi counterpart is Sprite over Sierra Mist.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
now here's a kicker you just made me realize
I bet poor people in the Deep South have better teeth than poor people in what I'd call the "Northern South", with KY and WV in particular.  Why?  Coke doesn't sell Mountain Dew.  I remember a great Diane Sawyer special on "KY Moutain Children" and these poorer areas are loaded with Mountain Dew "addicts".
[ Parent ]
if they even have pepsi
But this is how it'd go.  "I'd like a coke.". "What kind?". "Pepsi."  I got used to the Southern accents and even accidently said a "ya'all" once, but calling a Sprite a coke was always unforgiveable to me.
[ Parent ]
Also
NY and PA are perfectly split, with the Buffalo, Rochester, and Pittsburgh areas going for pop and the rest preferring soda. Also, the St. Louis area is one enormous outlier in the Midwest--what's going on there?

I, for one, had never heard "pop" as meaning anything other than "dad" before college.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I have a friend
from Johnson County, Missouri (Warrensburg) who says soda. And Johnson County is like, the one soda county in western MO. So random!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
An elaboration on this map.
http://bigthink.com/ideas/21360

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Heh. The reason why our soda %...
Isn't higher here in Nevada is probably because of all the Midwesterners who have moved to Vegas over the last 20 years. Otherwise, all the native Nevadans, ex-New Englanders, ex-New Yorkers, and ex-Californians just call it soda and call it a day...

While I'm just trying to stay away from the stuff as often as I can! I've lost about 15 pounds since the holidays, and I'm trying hard to keep them off. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Green tea and Vitamin
Water are how I stay away from the stuff.  
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin
100,000 people demonstrating for a month, recall campaigns, senators seeking amnesty in Illinois, death threats, protesters being removed by force, supreme court in chaos and a justice is threatening to "destroy a bitch".

And now a soda/pop fault line running through the state.

Yup, I'm pretty sure its time to call a no-fly zone over Wisconsin. Damn squabbling cheeseheads!

23, dude, gay, IL-13

[ Parent ]
imagine
if the packers had lost the super bowl

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
It's Pop!
There is no other way of saying it!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
It's such a shame
you often have such valuable things to say and from now on I can't take any of your posts seriously! :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hey!
I only speak the truth.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Looking at St. Joe County, IN
Where I am, it's pretty solidly "pop" and I actually say soda. I feel disenfranchised.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Monroe Counties Pop!
It must be that darn influx of Chicagoans!  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
shut-up, I cant believe someone took the time to make that
Cannot wait to get home and look at that on a bigger screen than my blackberry!  Where's the map showing water fountain vs bubbler?  (Dumb ass Wisconsinites.)
[ Parent ]
psst, andrew
it's called a drinking fountain

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Well excuse you
sadly, I imagine we'd be outnumbered on that one. "Bubbler" is still strong in SE New England, and I've heard it's also used in Oregon, and all the Cheeseheads I've met say it too. But I think that's about it :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Weird in Indiana
Indy and its suburbs are Coke but the north is solidly pop.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
My wife is from Ohio
So I am familiar with the midwestern lingo - but I decided to be bi-partisan and combine the two!
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the
polling breakdown on 1st page--great time saver
Hang the governor around everyone Republican's neck
In Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and other places that have elected governors who are doing wacky, (at least for now) unpopular thiongs -- we need to make every Republican from the candidate for dog catcher on up a co-conspirator.
One promising thing...
...is that, should governors like Synder, Kasich, and Walker maintain these current numbers, they'll likely be defeated in 2014, hopefully in the general.  If their Democratic successors are able to serve two terms, then they'd be serving through the 2021 redistricting cycle.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
This is called...
Getting way ahead of ourselves!
[ Parent ]
Pfft. We're totally going to win the White House in 2052!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
MI-Sen: Stabenow in Better Shape | 49 comments

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