MI-Sen: Stabenow Leads, But Looks Shaky

Public Policy Polling (12/3-6, Michigan voters, no trendlines)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 49

John Engler (R): 42

Undecided: 9

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 45

Pete Hoekstra (R): 44

Undecided: 11

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 45

Terri Lynn Land (R): 41

Undecided: 14

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 47

Tim Leuliette (R): 30

Undecided: 24

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 43

Candice Miller (R): 41

Undecided: 15

MoE: ±2.8%

PPP’s first look at 2012’s Michigan Senate race may surprise some people, as this race isn’t one that gets mentioned in the same context as the main trio of troublesome races for the Dems this cycle (Montana, Missouri, and Virginia), yet the numbers here look more similar to those races than the ones that are shaping up to be pretty safe, like Minnesota. I’m not entirely surprised, though, as PPP’s previous approval scorings have placed Debbie Stabenow near the bottom of the Senators up for re-election in 2012, and that seems to show up here again, with middling 41/40 approvals and not breaking 50% against any of her opponents.

Interestingly, the person I’d thought would be the strongest opposition for her, three-term ex-Gov. John Engler (about whom there had been vague rumblings last year about a run), fares worse than most other GOPers. It’s not as if people have forgotten him; he’s still only 9% unknown, it’s just that people remember him and don’t like him (33/45)! It may be a Tommy Thompson-style problem, where a fresh face is more compelling than the old hand that everyone initially feared. The closest race is with Rep. Peter Hoekstra, who’s probably top of mind right now because he ran statewide, narrowly losing the GOP gubernatorial primary… but the polarizing Hoekstra is much less liked (28/31) than some of the other options that may have more upside for the GOP (Rep. Candice Miller and SoS Terri Lynn Land, both at 36/21, although I haven’t heard any mention of Miller or Land’s names being floated for this race).

(I don’t think there will be a digest today, partly because of time concerns, partly because of sheer lack of compelling news, so feel free to use the comments here for off-topic discussion today.)

68 thoughts on “MI-Sen: Stabenow Leads, But Looks Shaky”

  1. Too much attention on the wrong Brown (MA). Sherrod Brown has been one of the most consistent liberal votes in the Senate and he represents a state where Dems just got washed out. I think he could be in more trouble than some have let on, especially if unemployment is still high in Ohio in two years. Maybe he’ll have a Perriello-effect though. By standing strong behind progressive causes (but not being an ass about it ala Alan Grayson), he made a conservative district very competitive in a terrible year for Democrats. But then again, we all know how Perriello wound up…  

  2. All this Nebraska & Ohio chatter, but what do we think of the Michigan numers from PPPolling. Dems should be nervous about the tepid support, 45% or less vs everyone but Engler? Even with a solid presidential year turnout in Detroit Metro & Union stongholds in Saginaw she looks weak. GOPers have to be nervous that the better known the challenger the lower the higher Stabenow’s ballot test number, looks like a classic case of “we don’t like ours, but we REALLY don’t like theirs”

  3. I’d never heard of Michigan’s Rep. Candice Miller until earlier today, when I read an article about Wikileaks that quoted her. “It is time that the Obama administration treats WikiLeaks for what it is — a terrorist organization,” she apparently said. Lovely.

  4. People do remember Engler.  He left this state a mess…a mess which Granholm has been cleaning up her entire term.  Many Republicans like to act as if Granholm inherited a wonderful economy and ruined it.  No…Michigan lost 200,000 jobs in Engler’s last term.  MI also had an unemployment rate of about 7% which is where it stayed the first 5 years of Granholm’s term.  Engler also did nothing to diversify our economy.  That job was also left to Granholm.

    The fact that Engler doesn’t live in Michigan may also be a problem.  Voters know the difference between owning a home somewhere and living there.    

  5. I said this in another thread, recently, after seeing these numbers, but upon seeing how Obama just about crushes every opponent he’s put up against in the state save Romney (who he still leads), I’m much less worried about Stabenow than I originally was.  Michiganders aren’t big ticket splitters when it comes to presidential years, at least recently that’s been the case.  If Michigan votes for Obama even half as enthusiastically as they did in 2008 (+16 points), Stabenow still wins.

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