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SSP Daily Digest: 3/23

by: DavidNYC

Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 8:10 AM EDT


KY-Sen: Lolz.

OH-Sen: This is about as far from the horse's mouth as you can get (paging Goldy?): The Columbus Dispatch is simply asserting that Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel "is leaning toward a run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and will make an announcement this spring." They don't even say, "according to sources"-is that supposed to be implied or something? Anyhow, I'll wait for Young Master Josh to confirm, seeing as no one else is reporting this.

In other Ohio news, PPP has their miscellaneous report card available... and this time, it's extremely miscellaneous.

CA-Gov (PDF): The Field Poll has preliminary job approval ratings for Gov. Jerry Brown, who has a pretty sharp-looking 48-21 score in the early going. But don't get too excited: Guess who had 54-15 approvals at the same point in his first term? Yep, that'd be Gray Davis (scroll down to p. 3 for the completely historical picture).

NC-Gov (PDF): I'll be honest, PPP's regular NC-Gov polls were starting to all run together in my head, but this time, Tom Jensen & the gang tried something different: they tested a bunch of alternatives to the very unpopular incumbent Dem, Bev Perdue. The sad news for Team Blue, though, is that even our best hope, AG Roy Cooper, still trails likely GOP nominee Pat McCrory by a 43-35 margin, though that's better than Perdue's 50-36 gap. State Sen. Dan Blue (trailing 48-28) and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (trailing 47-27) don't change the equation, either. I also seriously doubt that Cooper would run; he was courted for Senate in 2009 but declined early on. He seems pretty happy where he is and, at age 53, can still wait a bit before deciding to move up. (I'm guessing 2016 vs. McCrory would be a good matchup.)

WA-Gov: This is kind of meh, but if you like your tea weak, drink up.

FL-26: No, that's not a typo! It's just another super-genious catch by Greg Giroux. Lunatic Karen Diebel, last seen losing the FL-24 GOP primary to now-Rep. Sandy Adams, has filed to run for Congress once again. What's awesome about this is that Diebel has kicked her DeLorean up to 88 miles per hour, since her paperwork says she plans to run in the as-yet-uncreated twenty-sixth congressional district. Click the PDF for the documentary proof. This should be great. (Click here if you need a refresher on Diebel's batshittery, including the infamous Snakes in a Pool incident.)

IN-02: Former Republican state Rep. Jackie Walorski, best known as Wacky Jackie, surprised no one in formally announcing she'd seek a rematch against Rep. Joe Donnelly, something she'd been toying with ever since her narrow loss last fall. (Walorski blames Donnelly's one-point escape on the five percent a Libertarian Party candidate managed to snag.) Of course, two huge, inter-related questions remain here: What will the 2nd CD look like after redistricting, and will Donnelly seek re-election or try his hand at higher office? Stay tuned... for a while.

NY-26: Janie's got an ad: Republican Jane Corwin is out with a second spot (her first was a bio ad) that hits themes as old as the hills: Dem Kathy Hochul wants to raise taxes, and she's a clone of Nancy Pelosi. NWOTSOTB, but the Corwin campaign claims that the ad is "is airing districtwide on broadcast," according to The Hill.

OH-10: With his seat potentially headed for the carving board, Dennis Kucinich is obviously trying to win over as many friends as possible before the state legislature starts up the redistricting process. Kucinich said in an interview on Monday that President Obama's decision to order air strikes on Libya "would appear on its face to be an impeachable offense." (By the way, check out that PPP item up above - Kucinich has 27-40 favorables statewide.)

PA-07: Now this is damn interesting. At that recent DCCC fundraiser in Philly we mentioned the other day, Steve Israel reportedly met with former Safe Schools Advocate Jack Stollsteimer about a potential run against freshman Rep. Pat Meehan, who took over Joe Sestak's old seat last cycle. Stollsteimer confirms he met with "party leaders," and says he's giving the race "serious consideration." But what makes all this so unusual is that Stollsteimer served as Meehan's press spokesperson for many years while Meehan was Delaware Co. DA and later U.S. Attorney! It's only been a few months, but Stollsteimer says he has "serious problems with what [Meehan]'s already done as our Congressman." Could be good!

PA-08: That don't impress-a me much: the NRCC put out a press release attacking ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy for something or other, perhaps because they're concerned he might run for his old seat again. (That's possible, though he might also run for state AG.) But press releases are cheap, and who knows how many carbon-copy releases the NRCC put out, seeing as they don't put them all up on their website.

LA-St. Sen.: They switch parties in Louisiana like Denny Hastert changes underwear-which is to say, not every day, but perhaps with some frequency. It should come as little surprise that the latest state legislator to don a not-so-fresh pair of tighty-whities is moving from D to R. But a diarist at Daily Kingfish points out that Norby Chabert (great name) isn't exactly some crusty Dixiecrat playing out the string-he's a freshman who has said publicly he voted for Obama, and was relentlessly attacked on that score during his first election campaign in 2009. It'll be interesting to see if the whole mess of recent converts like Chabert wind up getting teabagged to death.

Philly Mayor: A judge denied Mayor Michael Nutter's request to remove wacky opponent Milton Street from the ballot, and Nutter said he would not appeal. (Nutter said that Street violated the city's residency requirements, which say you have to live in Philadelphia for three years before seeking office, because Street was serving out a sentence in a federal prison in Kentucky.)

Wisconsin Recall: The RSLC-that's the Republican State Leadership Committee, the GOP equivalent of the DLCC-is going up with new television ads against Democratic state Sens. Jim Holperin and Dave Hansen, who sit in the two most Republican districts held by Dems and are the target of recall efforts. Neither district is really red, though-they were both lost by Kerry but won by Obama, making them more swingish than anything else. Politico notes that the RSLC has already been running ads against Holperin, and that the new buy is expect to cost $50K a week, while the anti-Hansen campaign will run "six figures over several weeks."

How is this for awesome, though? One Wisconsin totally busted the RSLC for using stock footage so fake, it was actually watermarked with the words "FILE FOOTAGE" in the bottom corner!

Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: It was only a matter of time-and not that much. The WMC-Wisconsin's version of the Chamber of Commerce-is preparing to run ads in support of Republican David Prosser's campaign to stay on as justice. (I'm guessing these will be attack ads against JoAnne Kloppenburg.) Progressive groups are already on the air with a spot that equates Prosser with Gov. Scott Walker.

Meanwhile, in a candidate forum yesterday, Prosser's already infamous "I'll destroy you, bitch" comments of course came up-and he once again repeated his defense that, well, a bunch of women made him do it, by (as the AP put it) "ganging up on him." He also apparently failed to apologize for his remarks.

Polltopia: You know what to do.

Redistricting Roundup:

Alaska: Yes, Alaska! While the state obviously doesn't have to worry about congressional redistricting, it does have to re-do its legislative maps. And believe it or not, the state actually has something of a Democratic gerrymander, since last time around, Dem Gov. Tony Knowles controlled key appointments to the panel responsible for producing new maps. This time, of course, Republicans control all the levers of power, so payback is expected.

Maryland: MD has long been a popular target at SSP for redistricting plans, so I'm not sure there's much new here in Aaron Blake's latest state-by-state installment. But you geeks tell me!

Mississippi: Dems in the state House voted to join that NAACP lawsuit I mentioned yesterday, which is seeking to enjoin the state from holding elections this year under the old district lines-something which could happen if the legislature stalemates on new maps, which is looking increasingly likely.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/23
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Quinnipiac confirms Kasich's lousy numbers
Rudy! Giuliani in New Hampshire
Here's an interesting profile of Rudy! Giuliani as he contemplates whether to run for president as he's in New Hampshire doing all of the things that a presidential candidate would do. These paragraphs in particular stuck out at me:

On Friday night, Mr. Giuliani's pitch had a particular New Hampshire bent. He avoided mentioning the social issues on which he and the state's Republicans might diverge-in 2008, he had tried to split the difference with the G.O.P. base on abortion, gay marriage and gun control by casting them as issues best left to the states-and opted instead to praise the state's Tea Party and to portray resistance to the administration's health care bill as a "Live Free or Die" struggle against tyranny.

"I've always believed the emotion of the Tea Party is because it reaches into something deeper in an American's soul, which is, 'They're taking our freedom away,'" he told The Observer in a back room before the speech, in between posing for pictures with the evening's V.I.P.'s, who had paid $100 for the privilege.

"This president appears to want to have an America where Americans have less to say about their future, and the government has more to say about your future. And if you know New Hampshire, you know that's a very powerful theme in New Hampshire. Live free or die." He rocked back in his chair and let out a commanding laugh. "Wow, that's a powerful thought, right?"

Mr. Giuliani said he might even be capable of carrying the Tea Party mantle. "I think if the Tea Party looks at my record, they would find a lot of things to like," he said.

Asked if his disastrous showing last time-when he leveraged his front-runner status into one lone delegate-might hurt his chances, Mr. Giuliani shrugged.

"We'll see," he said. "We'll see. I don't know the answer to that yet. When I know the answer to that, I'll tell you-when I'm running or not running.

"

Considering what a manget for controversy (divorcing his wife via press conference) and corruption (Bernie Kerik, anyone?) he is, I can only imagine how his opponents or comrades on the right will dig through his past to find something to to beat him over the head with. For instance, take this little nugget, from a speech he gave in New York City in 1994, which I believe made an appearance last time:

We look upon authority too often and focus over and over again, for 30 or 40 or 50 years, as if there is something wrong with authority. We see only the oppressive side of authority. Maybe it comes out of our history and our background. What we don't see is that freedom is not a concept in which people can do anything they want, be anything they can be. Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do.

I'd love to see the mental gymnastics that some people use to justify this crap. Maybe I should take a look at the speech Pat Robertson gave when he endorsed Giuliani last time.

I guess he's not a complete idiot like Palin, but this entire campaign has the whiff of "What happens if your jackass cousin from Long Island tries to run for president?" I kind of hope he advances, because I think there is, at worst, a one-for-one trade amongst votes from moderate Republicans to conservative Democrats. Once he's in a race where his faults and past are magnified, he'll go down faster than a virgin on prom night.

http://www.observer.com/2011/p...

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/f...

http://bit.ly/emqAdO

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


if Huntsman's a nonstarter
and Bolton either doesn't run, or is a similarly bad candidate, it's possible that G's perceived foreign policy experience could create an opening if he gets a solid second in NH.  it's unlikely though.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Doubt it.
As more time passes since 9/11 and Rudy G has nothing to offer but that "noun, verb, and 9/11", he'll probably go as far as he did in 2008: nowhere, and get there quite quickly.

(And these days, the teabaggers probably won't let him off as easily as many GOPers did 4 years ago! After all, he was so "LIB'RUL!!!!!!!!!!!!" as NYC Mayor.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
foreign policy experience?
How many ambassadors does New York City send out into the world?  

[ Parent ]
Sounds like Orwell
There is an authoritarian wing in the Republican party, and Giuliani is probably the core politico in that wing.

[ Parent ]
Hrm, I'd peg Giuliani's chances of running at about 30%
I don't think he quite envisions an opening for a foreign policy-based candidate, but rather suspects that Romney could implode and, if the likes of Palin and other right-wingers jump in (and if Pawlenty tacks too far-right), there could be an opening for a moderate who doesn't have the health care baggage. Giuliani's a non-starter in Iowa and South Carolina - no doubt about that. But, if he could upset in New Hampshire, I suspect he'd win most of the big Super Tuesday states (CA, NY, NJ, everything in the northeast). And, if that led to something like a Giuliani vs. Palin showdown come PA/TX/OH, I think you'd see the conservative rank-and-file hold their nose and back Giuliani.

Of course, if Giuliani actually won the nomination, you'd see the likes of Tony Perkins try to assemble a third-party religious right candidate, probably. Giuliani would have to select a uber-conservative for VP to quell that.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Meh. I'd peg his chances of winning...
At closer to 3%, maybe lower. The religious righties obviously have their reasons to oppose Rudy G, but now he'll also have to worry about teabagger opposition to his "big guv'mint Republican" ways. There's just far too much history in NYC for teabaggers to ignore, and I doubt they will. If they're still holding "Romney-care" over Mitt's head, then they won't give Giuliani any sort of free pass for all the spending he did in New York.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
In Rudy's defense.....
He was referring to reinstituting authority over the anarchy that was New York City in 1994. I lived in the City back then and believe me it was not the same place it is today. When you realize Rudy was talking about the rioters in Tompkin Square, the squeegie men, the aggressive pandhandling homeless living on the streets, the rampant crime and drug open drug use I think Rudy will get a pass from the Right on this. Heck he may even get an Amen.

As for his chances in 2012 I think the rise of the Tea Party actually helps him as economic issues take precident over social ones.

For Rudy to have a chance he needs to focus on economic issues and have foreign policy be in the voters minds.

He would need a divided social conservative field in the early states like Iowa and SC so he could come in 1st or 2nd with 20% to 30% of the vote.

And he would need to make his campaign about competence and experience as an executive. Before being President Obama never ran anything. His competence as an executive is still a sore point among many on the right.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
your comment zeroes in on why the tea party is tough to judge
The tea party's issues are ones Rudy can resonate well with.  There is plenty of polling and info out there that the tea party is a spending issues interest group.  If they were truly just simply the GOP base, where were they when DOMA got struck down or DADT passed?  I suspect that there is the largest rift possible between the leaders and the supporters of the tea party.  The leaders are the batshit crazy racist ones who are the true base of the GOP and also have many barbaic social policy stances.  Many supporters agree with aspects of this, but overall, they seem to resemble libertarians without the thinking capacity.

The kick is that Rudy is actually the dream tea party candidate because of his 9/11 credentials, which is automatic wetness* for any moron who would spend hundreds of dollars on a colonial costume.  If social issues are but a blip, then he should go for President; why the fuck not?

This, overall, represents the big divide of Rudy being "America's mayor", as NYC is where Satan has his second home, first being San Fran, of course.  I have always loved the irony of Republicans for loving NYC because of a terrorist attack but hating it for everything that makes it the capital of the planet.

*Would have said wood, but wetness is more gender neutral.


[ Parent ]
I get his point and don't actually
think he was advocating some sort of authoritarian state, but it doesn't seem right to say that freedom is about respecting authority. It's unsettling, for any number of reasons.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Iowa Caucus: state GOP embarrasses itself......
Iowa GOP Chair invites Donald Trump to headline the state GOP's big Lincoln Day dinner this summer:  http://www.desmoinesregister.c...

It's embarrassing enough for the state GOP that Iowa has become irrelevant in deciding the GOP Presidential nomination, and at times has elevated cranks and laughingstocks like Pat Robertson (2nd place ahead of Bush 41 in '88) and Huckabee.

But even for them, this is a new low.

Really, Iowa Republicans need to thank their lucky stars that Iowa Democrats take their duty seriously and matter so much in deciding the nomination on the Democratic side.  Indeed, Iowa Dems were the kingmakers the last two Presidential cycles for Team Blue.  If it wasn't for the Democrats, the state's hold on the first-in-the-nation delegate selection contest would be much more tenuous.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Hrm, I'm starting to get the feeling either Giuliani OR Trump will jump in
Keep in mind, Trump backed Giuliani in the '08 primaries. I think the Trumpster's watching Giuliani before he makes a move.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Please let it be Trump
Please please

[ Parent ]
Trump circa 2000
"Regarding universal health care, Trump touted himself as "a conservative on most issues, but a liberal on this one. Working out detailed plans will take time. But the goal should be clear: Our people are our greatest asset."

[ Parent ]
Indeed
And let this finally be the end of The Apprentice.  Dude inherited his empire from his dad, bitch please.

[ Parent ]
Trump is not watching Giuliani. Trump doesn't care about Giuliani.
Trump is stroking his own ego.  He may be doing it purely for attention, or he may get carried away enough to actually file papers and run for real, at least for awhile.

I'm confident Giuliani doesn't even cross his mind on this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I
think Trump will run just to up his profile. He is a celebrity plain and simple. And celebrities always want to up their profiles.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Trump doesnt run
The free publicity Trump gets from people talking about him running helps him.

Being made into a laughing stock by winning less than 1% of the vote will hurt him.


Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
So he runs and drops out before any actual primaries


Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
But Trump and Giuliani are basically BFFs
I can't fathom them running against each other. One would undoubtedly endorse the other.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Their friendship doesn't matter as far down the list as they both are......
Sure they can both run if they want, because neither has a chance to win anyway.  So that takes the pressure off.

Trump isn't in this to get elected President, he's in it for his ego.  So he won't care if Rudy runs, that won't affect his decision.  And Rudy knows Trump is not a serious candidate, he's not going to take Trump's candidacy seriously.

And how personally close are they really anyway?  I'm skeptical they'll let friendship that I don't know is that close and personal get in the way of personal ambition.

I think you're applying an analysis to these guys that applies potentially validly only to more serious candidates.  And even when more serious candidates are involved, remember last time John McCain running didn't deter his close friend who actually endorsed him, Fred Thompson, from running himself.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
This whole Trump thing has gone way past the merely absurd and...
Just become stupid, and the Republicans in Iowa should be ashamed of themselves. Here's how the article from the Des Moines Register should have gone, and only this:

"For some reason, Donald Trump will be the Iowa Republican Party's headline speaker at this year's annual Lincoln Day Dinner. We are still trying to reach out to national Republican officials to see if they still have an organized affiliate of the party in the state of Iowa."

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


[ Parent ]
now here I was thinking
I'd keep scrolling and see desmoinesdem posting this.  Heavily agreed, and it shouldn't take a Virgianian to point this out.

[ Parent ]
I'm actually an Iowa native, reflected in my handle......
Born in Ames, raised there and in Marshalltown, and then back to Ames for college (Go Cyclones!) before leaving the state for good at a ripe 22.

I still follow my home-state politics closely, especially since my mom and brothers still live in Marshalltown after all these years.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Reading the details of the article
It seems like less of a big deal
This year, Strawn has opted to hold events around the state featuring individual presidential prospects. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour attended the first one last week in Davenport.

In other words, every candidate will get his/her own Iowa event. While it's still absurd that Trump's getting one, it's not like they're trying to anoint Trump.  


[ Parent ]
Thanks, I missed that, it does lessen the impact, but it's still pretty bad......
I realize there are rank-and-filers in both parties who hate party leadership picking and choosing who gets included, but they need to ignore the complaints and just do it or it becomes the patients running the asylum.

And judicious picking-and-choosing in this case means you just don't give Donald Trump of all people his own event.

The Iowa GOP has a real problem of keeping themselves relevant in the Presidential contest.  As I said, they should thank their lucky stars that their Democratic counterparts take the responsibility much more seriously and consistently nominate people who actually can and do win the nomination.  The state Dems are the only reason Iowa remains so important, since both parties play the same day in these early states.

So now they go and pull this, further making a mockery of themselves.  These events announce to the world, "we are the Iowa Republican Party, and this is what we stand for."  So you don't just give the mic to just anyone.

Of course, their party has gone full racist and full xenophobe, between birtherism and so much other embracing of conspiracy theories and bigotry.  So I guess little should be expected of them in the way of smart decision-making.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Speaking of "wacky"...
Guess who's also releasing her new autobiography!

Sharron Angle is spending thousands of dollars to self-publish an autobiography about her life and values.

An AuthorHouse spokesman told The Associated Press Tuesday that Angle contracted the book with the leading self-publishing company this month, just days before she announced her campaign for the U.S. House.

Spokesman Kevin Gray says publishing packages can cost up to $15,000. Copies of the book would be printed by demand.

As a self-publisher, Angle has control over the design and editing of the book. She is hoping for an April release.

I hear it's supposed to be called, "The Right Angle". And I'm sure she is... For Dems to compete in NV-02! ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


totally explains her weakness as a politico
and not just her weakness as a wingnut.  Doing a book before announcing for office equals free press while after looks horribly opportunistic.  Angle is now trying to make a profit off of running for office, which I guess in this economy, is something we should all take note of.

[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen, UT-Sen: Flake, fearing teabaggers, flip-flops on immigration reform, while Utah shocks the nation
Story here:  http://www.azcentral.com/news/...

I don't know why I'm surprised by this, but I keep wanting to believe this or that Republican pol who took a sane approach to at least a few issues will remain sane.  But no, Flake goes full teabag now on immigration.

Meanwhile, Arizona's much more far-right neighbor to the north, Utah, in a strangely far less publicized move, goes the exact opposite direction of Arizona and legislates state-level "legalization," or "amnesty" to the teabaggers, for undocumented aliens!  The Governor has signed the bill into law, so it's done.  Here's a story on the bill's politics, http://www.deseretnews.com/art... and here's the actual bill, http://le.utah.gov/~2011/bills...

Reminded that Chris Cannon lost his seat to Chaffetz a few years partly over being "soft" on illegals, I don't know what to think about how immigration will play in UT-Sen or downballot.

Keep in mind Utah's law really isn't worth anything, a state has no authority to decide or change an alien's legal status.  But this potentially puts the Obama Administration in a bind, since Utah just did what Obama would like to do in federal legislation, and that Bush tried and failed to do.  And yet, Utah's own law isn't valid, how do they not come out and say that?

The White House simply has to be relieved that the Utah law isn't making any big news...but it's hard for me to believe it won't get more noticed eventually.  That Utah is a right-wing state and did this, and that Utah is Arizona's very neighbor, both make the news angle even more compelling.

Hatch, for his part, on Facebook, http://www.facebook.com/notes/... explicitly said he has no position on the Utah law, citing "states' rights," but then he went ahead and bragged about opposing "amnesty" and favoring enforcement-only his entire career at the federal level.

I can't help but think having "no position" on the state law hurts him further in the nominating convention next year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


One failed link in my comment above......
I tested my links after posting my comment, and I see my link to the actual Utah bill fails.  But the bill can be accessed through the first page of the Deseret News story I linked, and that link works.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Remember, The LDS Church has been under...
Intense pressure from within to denounce the recent anti-immigrant hysteria and show more compassion. While there's also been pressure from the anti-immigrant teabaggers, it seems church leadership is now leaning toward compassion and common sense for a change. At the very least, the church didn't pressure against it, and perhaps they even quietly encouraged legislators to vote for The DREAM Act.

Still, it's funny that Utah passed its version before California. (John Burton and Gil Cedillo must be PISSED right now!) ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The LDS Church is an international missionary organization...
...so it's interests are different from those of a purely American political organization.

In particular due to the success LDS has had among the islands in the Pacific there is a large and fairly recent Pacific Islander minority in Salt Lake City made up of Samoans, Tongans, etc.  These are loyal church members who I don't think the church exactly wants to alienate.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
Their ultimate goal is brainwashing, pure and simple
They advocate for moderate/liberal immigration reform to imperialize the world.  Here at home, they damage themselves heavily with being some of the main funders of Prop 8, even when they don't live in the state.  I wish my internet wasn't down so I could properly look this all up, but the LDS church has since endorsed non-discrimination  for LGB(T?)ers in Salt Lake City (and maybe state) for employment and/or housing.  Yeah, that's some bullshit fact finding, however, I read the largest LGBT news blog daily and while I can't recall specifics, the LDS church definitely saw all the negative press they were getting over Prop 8 and they threw the gays a bone (heh) as a public relations move within American politics.  That much I remember.

[ Parent ]
The Flake flip-flop is big news
But I don't think that's going to deter Trent Franks or make up for years of not hating on brown people sufficiently.

As for Utah, believe it or not, I actually did a digest bullet on that a little while back - about mostly empty-sounding teabagger threats to primary Gov. Gary Herbert.


[ Parent ]
voter ID in Iowa
A photo ID bill modeled on Indiana's passed the Iowa House in January but looks dead for this year in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Not a single one of Iowa's 99 county auditors supports making all voters show photo ID, but our new Secretary of State Matt Schultz is not giving up--he's planning a statewide tour this spring to win public support for the bill. The timing is weird, because the legislature will be adjourning this spring until next January, but Schultz is widely expected to run for higher office before too long. Probably he just wants an excuse to get his name out there.

I laughed when I saw that Jim Gibbons (GOP establishment candidate in last year's IA-03 primary) is going to accompany Schultz on his voter ID tour. Schultz picked Gibbons to be his deputy in charge of the Secretary of State's Office business division. The job has nothing to do with voter ID regulations.


Thank
goodness Iowa dems control the state senate. Voter ID bills are just disgusting. Voting should be made as easy as possible, we should not discriminate against those who can't afford to vote.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
SSP's
friends at red racing horses say wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales is thinking of a Senate run in Florida.
http://redracinghorses.com/dia...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

the founder of wikipedia
won't be that bad, I'm sure there's lots of dirt on him.  Quick to wikipe... oh...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
lol
Actually he has been known to edit his own page before. Many have been reverted.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
That would be funny....
...considering how much Wikipedia tends to be part of conservative conspiracy theories.  These conspiracy theories of course led to the creation of the often hilarious conservapedia.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Waaaay too much dirt
The guy had an earlier career marketing softcore porn and has been through at least one sex scandal.  He's also got a hefty record of public statements on the internet.  I don't think he's actually a terribly bad guy, but there isn't a chance.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
Hastert
What's the context for the random slam on Hastert?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

yeah?
I was wondering that as well

[ Parent ]
MD Redistricting
It sounds like they are shooting for 7-1, but there is a decent possibility they stay 6-2.  That would be unconscionable since it is so easy to do 7-1 or even 7-0-1.  

I'm not sure why they're focusing on Andy Harris when eliminating Bartlett is much easier.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


Harris Is Junior...
..and obnoxious to the point where it would be very hard for him to win even a swing district.

Also, in Kratovil there's a fairly obvious Dem candidate for an Eastern Shore-based district. And a fairly obvious way to shift things around - take the red territory in the Baltimore suburbs in MD-01 now and spread it around, and replace it with some blue territory.  

There is no such obvious candidate for Western Maryland.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Remember how quick the pundits were to jump
On every scrap of data that 2010 would be great for Republicans? I'd argue part of the actual result may well have been a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many of us said at the time they were never as fast in 2006. Neither it seems for 2012.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...


They only do that for Republicans...
If we do manage to retake the house, it will be a surprise, since no pundit will go on a ledge to predict it, unlike last year, where everyone and their brother was "predicting" a GOP house from 2009 on...

[ Parent ]
I'm skeptical myself
I just thought the comparison was striking. Especially how strong the dismissal is when the poll did a good job in 2006 and 2010 as cited in the original post.

[ Parent ]
I believe the GOP will be a clear winner in this
2010 redistricting cycle.  So far I don't see evidence from census numbers or discussions in the press or even here to change my mind on that point. Here's my basis my thinking.

You can argue that party ID is split or argue that America is a 50-50 nation.  You can even argue that after the President's win in 2008 that the country has a left or D tinge to it.  Yet the GOP has 242 house seats. So the 2001-2002 maps provided the GOP an edge in a 50-50 country and 3/5 elections went to the republicans in this cycle.  So who's ahead?  The battleground clearly favors the GOP in the house as of right now.

So who wins the 2011-2012 cycle?  What qualifies as a win?

1. Don't bought the arguement that adding seats to the 242 is a failure for the GOP.  That's a phony standard for winning.  Plus or minus 3 or 4 seats net in adding and substracting might be a good number for the GOP.  

2. So how does the GOP win?  Remember those 242 seats.  I believe the GOP will improve its position in 30 to 40 marginal seats plus 20 to 30 freshman will get improved seats that will allow them to win for a decade or so.  

I think the GOP will keep or improve its position in 230/242 seats. Here's the downside seats-1 in NY, 1 in NJ, 1 in MD, 1 FL, 1 OH, 4 IL, 1 LA and my guess is net 3 in CA. Those will be seats that GOP will either lose or might lose. To offset that we get a shot at PA4/PA12, 1SC, 3NC, 2GA, 1FL, 1IN, 3TX and 1WA.

The Republicans will improve seats in NY (4), PA (6), NJ(1), VA(2), NC, SC, GA, FL(4), AL(2), TN(2), OH(5), IN(2), MI(1), WI(2), TX(3), NV and  WA.   I think we see arrangements that will help some GOP seats in MN, Iowa, MO, CA and CO but that is unclear right now.

Is there uncertainty in this?  You bet but this is my current crystal ball reading.


[ Parent ]
Are you talking post election?
I have a hard time seeing them enter 2013 with more seats than they do now. Though I agree redistricting makes it harder for Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
I am talking in relation to the
2008-2010 elections.

Take IN2 , IN8 & IN9 from a map posted yesterday.  The GOP controls redistricting.  I believe that the two freshman in these districts will find themselves in seats that are 3 to 4 % more GOP then they are now.  

Plus IN2 & will likely be 6% to 8%  or so more GOP.

This no guarantee that the GOP will win any of these seats in 2012.  The chances of the GOP holding IN8 & IN9, however, are greatly increased.  These were 51 & 50 percent McCain seats and now they will likely be 55% McCain seats.  

That's my point in a capsule that if the GOP won 242 with 260 seats that they had a chance to win.  They will now have 260 seats with a chance to win  but in the marginal  or closer seats they will be more republican in them.  

Look at the 30 close house races in 2008.  Move those races 4% to the right.  How many will go R instead of D?  The Playing field for the GOP, overall, will be more favorable to them in 2012 then 2008.  That's my prediction.  I don't incumbents and their money or things like that.  The competitive playing field will be more R then D then before.    


[ Parent ]
Your analysis as presented is poor, your conclusion unsupported......
I read your comment twice, and the only reading that harmonizes everything in it is to declare the GOP is a "clear winner" from redistricting simply by consolidating its 2010 gains.

If that's what you mean, I at least see the point you're making, even though I don't think that's how most people would define "winning" or "losing" through redistricting.  Ten years ago it was defined by drawing maps to take a bunch more seats from Dems.

But your conclusions about the states where you claim the GOP will "improve seats" make no sense in a bunch of those states.  Some of those states were already gerrymandered to maximum GOP advantage a decade ago, and the maps can't be made any more Republican.  In others, there are VRA seats that will be protected or in some states added that the GOP can't win.  And there aren't going to be any "arrangements" to help Republicans in places like Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, or California, so I have no idea what you're talking about there.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I thought I put my numbers out there
state by state in a very pithy manner. There may have been some comments that did not make sense to you because you have to think outside of the box a bit.  Put away conventional thinking and look at the problem in a new way.

I detailed out how I believe the GOP would have a better political field for the 435 house races in 2012 then they had in 2010.  It looks like they will be disadvantaged in a dozen or so while they will be greatly advantaged in a dozen or so to offset their losses.  More important there 40 or so seats, that are marginal, that flip back and forth over the decade, that they will be improved in.  

I took into account states like CO, MN, Iowa and CA that are not controlled by the GOP.  I might add that in MN its very likely that all 4 GOP seats will likely stay about the same partisan wise.  In Co that's the likely outcome as well but if marginal seats are improved that's a bonus in my mind.

I might add that if the GOP kept 242 seats for the rest of this decade would that be a win for them?

The only way to judge who won redistricting is to determine which party improves their chances of holding 218 seats.  I say its clear that the GOP will win the 2011-2012 cycle.  


[ Parent ]
I think this Politico take would be "safest" for Rs
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

"Hold what you've got. Gains are less important," said a prominent GOP consultant familiar with the Virginia map drawing and the overall party strategy. "It's easier to keep the majority with a defensive posture, rather than trying to play offense. That's smart politics."

I guess the question is how many R+5 seats can be drawn, once the new lines are known.


[ Parent ]
to be fair
Rothenberg wasn't predicting a GOP takeover around this time two years ago.  In fact, he was claiming there was no chance in hell:

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

Rothenberg's poor prediction has received considerable mockery (e.g. http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath... so any predictions he has about 2012 should be taken with a huge grain of salt.


[ Parent ]
Wow! I had forgotten about this.
That was one amazingly bad prediction, all the more so for being so sure of itself ("zero chance.")

It's easy to mock Rothenberg, but it probably shows the folly of making any kind of prediction this far out.  


[ Parent ]
LOL
Funnier was that around the same time, going on those predictions, Michael Steele actually admitted in an interview that he didn't think they'd take the House (and then added that he thought the GOP wouldn't know what to do if they did win). The RNC chair! Speaking on the facts the time, Rothenberg etc were probably correct, things just deteriorated in 2010, though you're right about it showing the perils of prediction.

[ Parent ]
Nathan Gonzales wrote it


[ Parent ]
You probably saw the link below...
Clearly Rothenberg at this time in 2009 was not leaping on the scraps of data that indicated 2010 might be better for Republicans. (to quote: "zero chance" Republicans would take the House in 2010)

I just think it's impossible for serious prognosticators to predict any thing this far out.  


[ Parent ]
Same site
Different writer.

[ Parent ]
He's definitely winning here with 48% approval


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Nah
Likely Republican. Charlie Cook says so.

[ Parent ]
LOL


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
wow
When you look at the other results from the same poll that is GREAT.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
If NC Is The Battleground....
Team Blue is winning, at least at this point.

Not that everything is in a straight-line order, but I don't think the GOP has helped it's chances in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Ohio lately.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Well, I think it's more Team Obama winning than Team Blue
I think there's far better than a 50/50 chance the GOP overtakes the Senate.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
But you wouldn't say very likely?
"To be sure, Democrats face enormous challenges in 2012 and 2014, and it's pretty unlikely that their Senate majority will survive."

http://www.cookpolitical.com/n...


[ Parent ]
Republicans can't win without shrinking the map......
The GOP goal has to be to shrink the map back to 2000/2004.  If they can't do that, they're screwed.  And I don't think they can do that.

If Obama is doing well and poised to again win VA, NC, and several western heavily-Hispanic states like CO and NV, then Republicans have to counter by trying to make some competitive states into the new WV, pulling them fundamentally away from Democrats.  But where can they do that?  I don't think they can do it anywhere as soon as next year, Ohio will remain a tossup as will Florida.

This was the Democrats' problem in the DLC's heyday, which is why it was the DLC's heyday.  In the 80s and 90s, all the states that were safe R today were safe R then, but hardly any states were safe D.  So the battlefield from the start worked against us.

By 2000 the fundamental playing field had leveled, as plenty of Northerners got sick of hard right southern Republicanism.

Now the nonwhite vote growth has continued to move the map in our direction in several more states.

Tough sledding long-term for the GOP.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
One of the problems for Republicans right now
Is that, in addition to Virginia and North Carolina (which, let's not get too overconfident - they are still only lean Dem at best at this point, probably more like tossup), they really need Ohio, and I think Kasich and crew are really tanking Repubs popularity in that state. They might have had some hope of making inroads in Wisconsin before Walker, but I doubt it now.

Nevada is lost to the GOP (as is New Mexico), and while it's possible they get New Hampshire back, I don't think they can make it to 270 easily at this point.

But again, I don't want to get too overconfident. The economy is improving, the Republican presidential candidates seem like stiffs, but a lot can happen between now and next November and not all of it is good for Obama. As Steve Kornacki (one of my favorite political commentators) might put it, overconfident Dems should remember 1992

http://www.salon.com/news/poli...


[ Parent ]
Massive difference
Between being confident and overconfidence. The playing field reminds me a lot of 2004 actually. Back then it was always Ohio or bust. If anything 2012 looks tougher for them. Remember, there are 263 electoral votes with a Democratic PVI. Add Colorado and that makes 272. Right now he has an equivalent re-elect to Bush according to Pew.

[ Parent ]
You're missing my point re VA or NC, or maybe it's my fault for not making it clear......
My point is that those new battlegrounds that Obama turned blue or came close are states that the GOP must salt away before the fall, or else Obama wins.

It doesn't matter if VA and NC are lean Dem or tossup, what matters is that they're not likely or safe R.  As long as Republicans have to shit bricks about those states, they're screwed, because even eeking out narrow wins in those states still translates to Obama clearing 270 electoral votes.

When I say Republicans have to "shrink" the map, I mean they have to completely take some states off the table that Obama actually won.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Walorski should not blame the Libertarians
I have followed the LPIN fairly often, and it is easily the strongest state affiliate of the party right now (Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina have relatively strong state parties as well, but they do not have the local strength and do not perform as well statewide either).

The Libertarians in Indiana did something many in the party do not do enough and ran to the left. The congressional candidates ran with a certain emphasis at times on their anti-war position, particularly against Democrats who are more conservative than the rest of the nation.

So sure, Walorski got some fiscal conservatives to vote for her for sure. But the LPIN has also been a bit wiser in targeting the left too.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04


Correct
They routinely take 5% or more in gubernatorial and congressional races in Indiana. Which considering 3rd parties in the U.S. is pretty impressive.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
The Maryland Article
Nothing there we haven't been discussing, although we've thought about some of this stuff more than the reporter has.

He seems not to have figured out the extent to which it's possible to make the 1st at least a purple seat (which should be plenty enough to rid us of the awful Andy Harris) without significantly weakening the 2nd or 3rd.  

It's still a pretty good article, like the rest of them I've read a terrific primer for the uninitiated.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


FL-26?
Does Diebel realize that the new Orlando seat is probably going to be a majority-minorty district that is effectively a Democratic vote sink?

I've been playing around with FL in the DRA, and it looks like the real winner in Central Florida is going to be Webster, since the new Democratic seat will relieve him of his weakest areas. Adams is not going to benefit at all, since her district is already gerrymandered to elect a Republican. It will probably get cleaner lines and maybe become one point more Democratic.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


Terrifying poll from CNN on the GOP presidential primary
CNN Poll (warning .pdf):

Mike Huckabee led all potential candidates at 19%, followed by Mitt Romney (18%), Newt Gingrich (15%), and Sarah Palin (12%). Trump broke into double-digits as well, coming in at 10%.

In CNN's latest poll, Paul placed behind Trump, at 8%.

In the CNN poll, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum each garnered 3%, while Haley Barbour garnered 1%.

I can't believe that Trump has broken into double-digits. That man is absolute idiot.  The GOP's best candidates are way at the bottom.  


Amazing
I'm wondering how the field will shape up though without Huckabee, Palin, and Paul, as seems likely.

Romney would obviously beat Gingrich one-on-one, but I wonder whether any of the 3% guys would break out with such a vacuum at the top.


[ Parent ]
Trump may hurt Pawlenty
I suspect Trump may be drawing from low-info Republicans who aren't quite low-info enough to sit the primary out. Maybe a lot of them are attracted to "outsiders" even if they happen to be billionaires. These are the loosely attached voters that Pawlenty needs to pick up if he wants to make his move. If Trump actually runs this will make it hard for Pawlenty, both because he will have to initially pull them away from Trump and because Trump's presence will crowd out Pawlenty's free media.

If Huck and Palin don't run it will help Bachmann, who is a good Palin substitute for the tea party crowd and could also pick up much of Huck's evangelical base, especially in the north. It would also help Barbour pick up some of Huck's less zealous southern supporters.

I think Paul's supporters would either vote for a Paul substitute protest candidate (Gary Johnson?) or sit out the primary. I don't see them going for one of the other announced candidates.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
I think out of the bottom tier Barbour would stand to
gain the most from Huckabee and Palin leaving the race. He is going to appeal to the more conservative voters. Pawlenty and Daniels have a history of being much more moderate and have had problems with the conservative base in the past.

And I still have a hard time seeing Romney making it through the primary but he may end up the candidate by default at this rate.


[ Parent ]
I haven't understood comments here dismissing Trump
I don't see him winning the nomination, but it is hard to imagine him not having a floor of 5%, and most likely get a bit more.

Lots of people LIKE Trump.  They watch his dumb show.  Compared to Newt, he's a teddy bear.

If, like Perot, he manages to articulate a fairly sensible agenda, his wealth and celebrity will get him significant votes.


[ Parent ]
Arkansas Redistricting
The Democratic proposal for redistricting Arkansas being taken up this afternoon.

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p...

Have not had time to break it down but judging by the Republican reaction on Twitter they are not happy.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


greedy
That map looks like a dummymander that could easily go 4-0 Republican in a bad year, and the state is likely to keep trending red. I expected them to try to move Little Rock in with the Mississippi River counties.  

That said, the Dems probably need to take a few risks to try to get the House back.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
The Map passed...
... the House State Agencies committee by an 11-7 vote. Not sure what's next.

FWIW Obama carried Fayetteville by a margin of 57% to 43% ( this is the so called Fayetteville to the 4th plan).

 

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
I know nothing of Arkansas, really
I know that the area bordering the Mississppi is heavily black, and thus heavily Democratic. I also know Little Rock is a big Dem Vote area, but that's about it. Is this a 2-2 map? A 1-3 Map with it being 2-2 Pending a Ross retirement? I don't know what this is, really.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
1-3 with Ross.
0-3-1 without him.

If you are really going to do this, why not include the Delta in Ross's district? And I am hearing from a contact in Arkansas (and so is Blue Arkansas) that someone did something naughty in the redistricting process...

What are the twitter reactions like?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
0-3-1?
I don't see the Democrats doing that to themselves. They must have some kind of scheme to pick off 1 or 2 of the other seats.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
FWIW Arkansas Republicans are not happy
http://twitter.com/#!/search?q...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Page doesn't exist?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
definite
dummymander.  give up on any chance at 3-1. concede the first and the third, make the second lean d in an open situation, and the 4th lean r in an open seat.

it's arkansas, we should try and at least keep one seat safe.  this is easily 3-0-1 in a neutral year with ross gone, IMO

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
New AR-01 went around 58-39 for McCain, pretty bad plan for the Democrats.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
All
around stupid. They just blew an amazing opportunity.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
What do you mean?
This is just the House plan.  The process also inolves the Senate, the Governor, and the A-G.  Also, Prez numbers do not match up with party registration in AR, just like in WV or KY.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Democrats could have drawn two easy seats for themselves...
Instead they draw one for Ross and zero for anybody else.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Well, I hope the Senate plan draws an alternative.
What I see this plan doing is packing Republicans in one district so that they have a greater shot of restoring the old 3-1 arrangement.  Howevever, I agree, they need to aim for two easier-to-get seats instead of 3 wobbly ones.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah...
3-1's not going to work.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Well
luckily, the Senate also has to draw their version. Let's see where there districts land.

Also, if the AR GOP is in uproar about the House version, doesn't that mean it's good for Dems?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Uh, I'm still waiting for a link to be posted. The first one was on longer accessible. (MinnesotaMike's link)


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I saw it
I searched for Arkansas Redistricting and the ARGOP's twitter is saying that Dems are putting partisanship over fair representation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I hope the senate is not stupid.
I'll betcha money that this map will end up 4-0 by the end of the decade. It could easily be 2-2 for a while then 3-1. Trends are going against us. This map is just god awful. What does it do? Make Ross marginally more safe and takes a couple of points of Crawford. That does nothing for us. We could have got two seats and got rid of Griffin, Pryor's biggest threat. This is probably the last chance we have the full trifecta and it looks like we are going to waste it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
AR-02 went from 54-44 McCain
to 53-45 McCain or there about.

My guess is AR-04 is in 42 or 43 for Obama.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
It's a gamble
But, if Democrats can manage to win back AR-1 and AR-2 with solid candidates, they could very well hold on to them for a while. I think 2-2 would have been safer, but hopefully Arkansas Dems know what they are doing.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Trust me, they don't.
The Arkansas Democratic Party is all in an uproar after 2010, and worried about their pending collapse to TNDP or LADP levels. They just gerrymandered the State Senate, but I doubt that that will get them anywhere.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I suppose I was giving them too much credit
If they were ambitious enough to unlock Fayetteville, they should have put Little Rock in with the Delta, which would have almost guaranteed AR-2 flipping.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Exactly!
That guarantees 2-2 after Ross leaves!

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
You should write your ideas
to the powers that be in the AR government that are doing this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Good idea.
I am thinking of sending the state house speaker and senate leader an email. To wikipedia to find out who they are! GradyDem, you should make a map and send it to them. Anyone with the knowledge to should for that matter. Over at Redracinghorses the Pennsylvania and Louisiana legislators are looking at maps created there. Maybe Arkansas dems need some more ideas.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Emails
I present the emails to the Arkansas house and senate. I strongly encourage everyone to send an email, preferably with a map.

State House (scroll down to email)
http://www.arkansashouse.org/a...

State Senate. Ok I'm not sure if its just Arkansas and they are not yet in the technology age or I'm just not finding it but I can't find an email for the senate. If anyone can find it that could be awesome! In the meantime this is the best I can find if you want to make a call or (gasp!) write a letter: http://www.state.ar.us/senate/...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
Wow, they're either really confident or really stupid.
I don't know which.

[ Parent ]
The former.
Although overconfident.  They better have two great candidates waiting in the wings to run in two of these districts.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
AR- General comment
most of the responses seem to think that a fully red AR sometime in the next few years is a foregone conclusion.

While I buy into the notion, there are ways that could change -- such as someone other than a socon atop the R ticket, such as Daniels or Romney.
  -- that reverse effect would be enhanced if Huckabee runs, and is knocked down by the R establishment.

If it's all just an anti-Obama thing, I'd think it'd start shifting back in '16.  


[ Parent ]
I
wish I shared this view but just like other southern states I think Arkansas is moving out of our column for good. People are starting to realize that dems are the liberals and repubs are conservative. Conservative dems are becoming more and more rare. While I agree Obama sped the process up it was only a matter of time. I can't see these trends reversing. You have to realize that had the GOP not left so many seats unopposed they would probably have both legislative chambers right now. Check out the guy that won LG, it is a random some dude and he beat the former state house speaker. Maybe they are not completely there on a state level, I realize Beebe still won comfortably but on a federal level I think it is going away fast. Before long I think the state level will go as well. It reminds me of Louisiana.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
the only way I see a reverse
and may I add a temporary one is if a popular Dem like Beebee runs for Prez in 2016.

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
He'd never win a primary


[ Parent ]
There is an anti-Obama element there
Blanche Lincoln won a few counties that Obama lost, which was very telling seeing as she lost pretty badly. I do think that Democrats need to maintain a strong establishment an Arkansas, because I don't think it's completely gone.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's anti-Obama thing
I think it's a general Southern thing and Arkansas was late to the party because of the Clintons

[ Parent ]
Democrats ignore Arkansas, don't they?
When was the last time the Democrats seriously contested the state? Clinton probably didn't do much of anything, Gore probably took it for granted like he did Tennessee, and while I remember Kerry visiting the state at least once, he probably put less resources here than he put in Virginia, where he didn't put that many resources.

The state does appear to be moving away from us, but at the same time, I don't think you can write it off until you try. It'd certainly be interesting to see what would happen if they tried to contest the state.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Obama and race
Some of us discussed this over the weekend. In particular the idea that minorities won't be there for the president next year like they were in 2008. I hereby present an interesting addendum to that conversation.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...


Cat Fud Balckwell Brand
I guess Ken Blackwell was intrigued by PPP's Ohio poll the other day and is considering entering the race:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

All I can say is, "Please, oh please, oh please!!!"


Beloved by social conservatives, disliked by just about everyone else
He'd make this a Likely D race and post DeWine numbers.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I doubt he would do that well, quite frankly....
He only got like 35% last time around.  I think a lot of it was from the inherent racism of conservative voters who were just unable to pull the trigger on him.  His likely primary competitor, Josh Mandel, is Jewish, so diversity-averse GOP voters would really be in a bind.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
those diversity averse GOP voters who elected Blackwell treasurer and secretary of state twice. Probably the same xenophobes who just voted in Mandel and elected him to two terms in the State House of Representatives. What diversity hating GOP bigots they must be sooo stoopid to keep voting for those minorities.  

[ Parent ]
And yet Strickland won the conservative vote...
...when it came time to vote for the big job.  Your concern trolling on Mandel is rather ridiculous as well.  Mandel represented a very socially liberal, but economically conservative upscale district that has a totally different type of voters than the other conservative parts of the state.  Would Southwestern Ohio evangelicals have the same good feelings about him for senator that the Northeast Ohio laissez faire "country club" Republicans do?  Will they have some misgivings?  I honestly don't really know.  I guess we'll find out if he runs.

[ Parent ]
You people are happy to elect a few tokens as shields as long as they don't question your birtherism and other bigotry......
That's really what it comes down to.  Your party is one dominated by birthers and xenophobes and religious bigots who are on the airwaves daily, and your prospective Presidential candidates and so many of your elected officials explicitly cater to them.  But a few strategically-chosen tokens who do your bidding is just fine by you so you can make a snarky post on a message board about them.

I'll be very happy with the move to DKos where I'm pretty confident we won't be seeing you guys.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
i'm
not buying this "inherent racism" of conservative voters.  if tim scott, jc watts, and raul labrador could win house seats, i really think that minority republicans can win any district in the country, except perhaps in west virginia, arkansas, and kentucky

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
There are a few things
SC-01 is composed of transplants from outside of the deep South.  ID-01 was a case of straight ticket voting and had nothing to do with how he campaigned.  Minnick did almost everything right and Labrador floundered, but Minnick lost because people reflexively voted Republican out of some hysteria that voting GOP meant hurting Obama.

But yes, southern conservatives do tend to be by and large suspicious of minority demographics.  Why else do you think the Southern Strategy was (and is) so effective?  Lee Atwater said that the key to sustaining the Southern Strategy in the modern GOP is to appeal to southern conservatives with racial innuendo.  In other words, when a GOP candidate says they'll cut welfare, the southern conservative demographic hears it as "cut welfare, hurting blacks and latinos."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The
bottom also fell out with Democratic turnout and Labrador successfully picked up the ultra-conservative suburban voters of Ada and Canyon County that never would consider voting for a Democrat in normal circumstances.

My hypothesis is that the housing crisis had something to do with Minnick's victory in 08 besides Sali's nuttery, you can tell it had something did with the gigantic swings from Kerry to Obama in Nampa and suburban Boise, which were hit hard by foreclosures. Oh and his conservatism. It's important to remember that ID-1 has always considered voting for Democrats over the ridiculous wing of Republicans as well, though in the 90s it was much more Democratic without the suburban growth and . Chenowith (sp?) always had troubles being re-elected here.

Plenty of people voted for this indy called Olsen over Labrador because of race. Notice how well the independent candidate did in areas known for their working class racism. Anyways Labrador is the whitest latino ever. He looks white, he's Mormon, he's Puerto Rican and is infamous in the Idahoan Latino community for fucking over illegal immigrants. He's a fucking racetraitor and I'm not inspired in the slightest by his victory here.  


[ Parent ]
In all fairness, Scott and Watts prevailed in races where Democrats stood no chance
For all we know, 20% of white Republicans refused to back Watts and voted for the Democrat, but that didn't do crap because it's an R +18 seat. In the case of Tim Scott, he was running against a liberal black Democrat, so, at worst for some whites, Scott was the lesser of two evils. Labrador's district is about as conservative as the Scott/Watts ones, so Winnick might well have garnered some racist white Republican votes. But, again, it didn't matter.

Where racist white Republicans do most harm to minority GOP candidates is in the competitive races vs. white Democrats. If I recall correctly, about a fifth of Republicans voted for Strickland over Blackwell. Were these racist GOP-ers or moderates who didn't care for Blackwell? It's probably more the latter, though still a combo of both. Michael Steele, on the other hand, cleaned-up among Republicans, but he was a moderate and there aren't many southern-type GOP-ers in Maryland, so there was no obvious sect of the GOP to be wary of him.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Great quote from the man himself
"But PPP did not conduct a head-to-head survey between Blackwell and Brown. "Either they didn't think I was interested in the race, or they didn't want to know what my numbers were against Brown," Blackwell told Politico."

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...


[ Parent ]
WI-State Sen.: Hopper's mistress did not formally apply for state job.
Another wrinkle in the story of the suspicious hiring of Senator Randy Hopper's mistress to a state job (and at a salary 35% higher than her predecessor).  It turns out she somehow leapfrogged all the others who formally applied for the job.
http://addins.wkow.com/blogs/s...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



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