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Wisconsin Presidential Results by State Senate District

by: DavidNYC

Mon Feb 21, 2011 at 5:10 PM EST


In recent days, there has been some talk of attempting to recall WI Gov. Scott Walker over his attempts to eliminate collective bargaining rights for public employees. However, by law, Walker could not become the subject of a recall effort until 2012, and it would take over 500,000 signatures to put the issue on the ballot. (Wisconsin's total population is just 5.65 million.)

But the state senate is elected in alternating cycles, and eight Republicans - all of those in even-numbered districts, i.e., who last ran in 2008 - are eligible for recall now. That's state Sens. Robert Cowles, Alberta Darling, Sheila Harsdorf, Luther Olsen, Randy Hopper, Glenn Grothman, Mary Lazich and Dan Kapanke. (Of course, Dems elected in 2008 are potentially subject to recall as well.) And it would take about 15-16K signatures apiece for a successful recall petition, according to ThinkProgress.

So here's a look at the presidential vote breakdown in all 33 Wisconsin state senate districts to help gauge who might be most vulnerable to such an effort. The "Margin" column is the incumbent's margin of victory in his or her last election. Remember, you can click on each column header to sort the table, so you can see which incumbents had the narrowest victories, or which Republicans sit in the bluest seats, and so forth. (You can find our original spreadsheet here.)

District Senator Party Age First
Elected
Margin Seat Up Obama McCain Kerry Bush
1 Frank Lasee (R) 49 2010 20.2% 2014 53% 45% 44% 55%
2 Robert Cowles (R) 60 1987 99.4% 2012 52% 46% 42% 57%
3 Tim Carpenter (D) 50 2002 22.5% 2014 63% 36% 58% 42%
4 Lena Taylor (D) 44 2004 98.8% 2012 86% 13% 80% 19%
5 Leah Vukmir (R) 52 2010 4.5% 2014 51% 47% 46% 53%
6 Spencer Coggs (D) 61 2003 98.9% 2012 89% 11% 83% 16%
7 Chris Larson (D) 30 2010 14.4% 2014 61% 38% 56% 43%
8 Alberta Darling (R) 66 1992 1.0% 2012 51% 47% 46% 53%
9 Joe Leibham (R) 41 2002 46.3% 2014 53% 46% 47% 52%
10 Sheila Harsdorf (R) 54 2000 12.9% 2012 50% 48% 48% 51%
11 Neal Kedzie (R) 55 2002 50.8% 2014 40% 59% 33% 66%
12 Jim Holperin (D) 60 2008 2.5% 2012 53% 46% 46% 53%
13 Scott Fitzgerald (R) 47 1994 38.4% 2014 48% 51% 41% 59%
14 Luther Olsen (R) 59 2004 99.4% 2012 52% 47% 43% 56%
15 Tim Cullen (D) 66 2010 18.0% 2014 63% 35% 57% 42%
16 Mark Miller (D) 68 2004 99.3% 2012 66% 32% 58% 41%
17 Dale Schultz (R) 57 1991 25.2% 2014 61% 38% 51% 48%
18 Randy Hopper (R) 45 2008 0.2% 2012 51% 47% 42% 57%
19 Michael Ellis (R) 69 1982 99.0% 2014 54% 44% 45% 54%
20 Glenn Grothman (R) 55 2004 60.6% 2012 36% 63% 30% 69%
21 Van H. Wanggaard (R) 58 2010 5.1% 2014 55% 43% 50% 49%
22 Robert Wirch (D) 67 1996 33.4% 2012 57% 41% 51% 48%
23 Terry Moulton (R) 64 2010 8.5% 2014 55% 43% 49% 50%
24 Julie Lassa (D) 40 2003 35.4% 2012 59% 39% 51% 47%
25 Robert Jauch (D) 65 1986 2.6% 2014 59% 40% 56% 43%
26 Fred Risser (D) 83 1962 99.1% 2012 81% 17% 75% 23%
27 Jon Erpenbach (D) 50 1998 23.7% 2014 67% 32% 59% 40%
28 Mary Lazich (R) 58 1998 99.2% 2012 39% 60% 35% 64%
29 Pam Galloway (R) 55 2010 4.6% 2014 53% 45% 46% 53%
30 Dave Hansen (D) 63 2000 32.2% 2012 56% 42% 47% 52%
31 Kathleen Vinehout (D) 52 2006 0.7% 2014 58% 41% 52% 46%
32 Dan Kapanke (R) 63 2004 2.9% 2012 61% 38% 53% 46%
33 Rich Zipperer (R) 36 2010 99.5% 2014 37% 62% 32% 67%

One name which stands out here is Dan Kapanke. He's in the bluest district held by a Republican, and he won by less than 3% last time he faced voters. If his name sounds familiar, that's because he waged a pretty high-profile challenge against Dem Rep. Ron Kind (WI-03) last year, losing narrowly. I'm sure Kind has a pretty fat oppo file on Kapanke he'd be willing to share....

DavidNYC :: Wisconsin Presidential Results by State Senate District
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Still doesn't sit well with me
Sorry. Probably best I sit this one out.

It's the law of Wisconsin.
They can do what they wish with it.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
More importantly
I don't care whether I like the idea or not! What matters is whether it's feasible, and whether it will happen, and it happens, how it will happen. The personal preferences of some shnooks on some blog somewhere don't matter. But we should be able to (and can and will and always have been able to) discuss things that we don't like without that affecting our ability to evaluate them.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't make it right or wise though
But thank you both for confirming my original stance was the correct one.

[ Parent ]
Just to be clear
I was counting myself among the shnooks!

[ Parent ]
wise, wise words
Being able to evaluate politics without judgment for a partisan purpose is truly a tough feat and I try my best every day.  I think I'm mostly there considering the top political moment of my life was being maybe 50ft away from Palin during her RNC speech.  Best speech ever, painful, truly amazing.  And it tops the first non-straight white male choosing St. Paul as his venue for the night he won enough delegates to become the first presumptive nominee of a major political party of such a category.  (I'm probably maxed out for political experiences already.....)

Oh Palin, if she had had the brains....


[ Parent ]
"non-straight white male"?
I think a better description of President Obama would be the first non-white straight male, last I heard he is still straight.

I'm anxiously awaiting the day the first gay or bi presidential nominee emerges, but for the moment, I'm happy that we've broken the colour barrier -- still gave the gender and sexual orientation barriers to cross.

(And, just to be clear, yes, I got what you were saying, that Obama broke the 200+ year history of straight white men being the only folks who be considered as President....)


[ Parent ]
forgive me
Not straight, white, or male.

[ Parent ]
I'm 1/4 Creek, Sac and Fox, and Seminole.
Does that count as a double minority? :p

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Remember
SSP is all about the numbers. If a massive recall of the state senate in Wisconsin were to occur, it would be an amazingly fascinating study of relatively small districts and small numbers of voters. It's like an elections geek's wet dream, and that it may occur in an off-year gives us some concrete elections data to look forward to before the 2012 cycle really heats up.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Now I'm really excited.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Still sits just fine with me......
I'm all for using the rules as they are to maximum partisan advantage.  If we don't, then the other wise will, and we only screw ourselves by taking the "high road."  Republicans used the recall to knock out Gray Davis over nothing, and in NJ wingnuts tried to do the same to Menendez.  It's total bullshit, but if they're going to do it, then we must do it.

If one doesn't like it, one can lobby a state that has it to abolish the recall as an option, or scale it back to use only in extreme well-defined circumstances.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
or just
by making recalls more difficult to accomplish.
WI is apparently 25%
In CA it's only 12% valid signatures for statewide offices (and Davis got recalled in '03). (It's 20% for non-statewide offices) http://www.ballotpedia.org/wik...

So by comparison, WI already has a fairly high bar to getting a recall done.

And of course you also need to gather at lest half again as many signatures to help insure you've got the valid amount.


[ Parent ]
It's one thing to be against the Democrats
leaving the state. I fully support them doing it, but I could see how someone could feel differently. But the recall? As you and others said, it's a perfectly legitimate use of procedure. While it's not always the best way to express frustration, in this case, it's more than justified.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Especially in WI
which is the birthplace of the modern labor movement

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I'm a supporter of Westminster-style democracy
in most of them, when the premier has lost the confidence of the people (by way of the parliament), he or she is deposed by a vote of non confidence...a type of recall almost.

I think we'd function a lot better of we were able to bring down governments that lose confidence in the people instead of waiting 2-4 years to do it. Our country might have been a lot better if we could've been done with Bush after Katrina instead of dragging along another three years.  


[ Parent ]
I'm a supporter of Westminster-style democracy
in most of them, when the premier has lost the confidence of the people (by way of the parliament), he or she is deposed by a vote of non confidence...a type of recall almost.

I think we'd function a lot better of we were able to bring down governments that lose confidence in the people instead of waiting 2-4 years to do it. Our country might have been a lot better if we could've been done with Bush after Katrina instead of dragging along another three years.  


[ Parent ]
As observer

As observer it is so disappointing for me to see always the calls against partisanship (here, talking about redistricting or something else) when something favore to the democrats.

And when it favore to the republicans then I see disappointing silence.

Full agree with your comment.


[ Parent ]
Over most issues I would agree with you but...
... this Union busting goes against everything I stand for. This is an act of war on Unions and I am for fighting it with any and all means at our disposal.

Proud member of the UFCW,

Mike

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
Working-class white voters, ahoy!
This reminds me why I like the Democratic coalition. We're good people. And reminds me how totally screwed Republicans are if working-class whites swing back to Team Blue en masse when the Koch brothers attempt to destroy the last shreds of the safety net.

Anyway, Mike, I hail from the LGBT & pirate/geek part of the coalition, but I want you to know I'm proud to have your back. This here techno-ghey just made a donation to the Wisconsin Senate Democrats campaign fund and then I managed to cough up enough to buy a pizza for the oft-beleaguered Teaching Assistants Association. A friend of mine is a TA at UW-Madison and he described it as the best of times (the camaraderie & feeling of doing good in the world) with the worst of times (the weather and occasionally, the smells). And I guess he got to touch the guy from Rage Against The Machine or something...

As the polls close like a casket / On truth devoured / Silent play in the shadow of power / A spectacle monopolized / The cameras eyes on choice disguised / Was it cast for the mass who burn and toil? / Or for the vultures who thirst for blood and oil?
  [RATM - "Guerilla Radio"]

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
UFCW!
   I was a member of that union briefly. I am so glad my dues helped defeat Curt Weldon!

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
More
More concerning trolling from you, as usual.  Yeah, it'd be good if you sit this one out, and better yet, if you don't have anything positive to add in the future simply not to say anything at all...

[ Parent ]
Have to respond to that
Concern troll? A little uncalled for I think.

[ Parent ]
The other name that jumps out at me
Julie Lassa.  She lost a congressional race to Sean Duffy CD7. So Wisconsin senate was like 0-2 in congressional races in 2010.  So much for stepping stones.


Small sample size
Brutal year. Don't think you can read much into Lassa's loss, but obviously Kapanke will never have a better opportunity.

[ Parent ]
Nowhere near CD7-geography wise-so
I am clueless as to whether Lassa ran a good campaign or a bad one.  2010 was just a bad year for an open seat for nearly any D.

Frankly I don't know if Duffy was all that great as a candidate.  Who can keep with 100 contested house races plus most local newspaper's political coverage is blather.

I suspect Duffy will get a better seat in 2012 and likely Lassa will be shipped to another CD.  Duffy could be in for a long political career


[ Parent ]
The Dem strength of WI-7
lies in its outer reaches along Lake Superior and Duffy lives in one of these lake counties.  So you'd either have to do some extreme gerrymandering or remove Duffy from the district to make WI-7 more GOP friendly.

Hmmmmmm.........  I suppose you could make WI-3 snake up the state border to Lake Michigan and take in heavily Dem counties exchanging Republican territory.  I picture it in my head and it'd actually be a very effective gerrymander; connect the Lake Michigan counties with the UW university cities along I-94, combining the Dem cores of WI-3 and WI-7.


[ Parent ]
The other option
Expand WI-03 to the east and take in Stevens Point, which for some reason is very blue (63% Obama, an 11K vote margin.) This almost exactly the same margin that Douglas and Bayfield, the two Lake Superior counties, gave Obama. You can't remove Ashland from WI-07 because that's where Duffy lives.

I favor the Stevens Point plan for two reasons. First, this would give St. Croix County, the most significant source of GOP votes in the north country, to Duffy, which you can't do if you draw a Minnesota border district. Second, Duffy is from a Lake Superior town himself, so I think there's a better chance that he wins over voters in Douglas and Bayfield than in Stevens Point, which is way at the other end of his district.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Possible Plan
I think that would be more reasonable.  Here is a map that I think they might try:Photobucket

[ Parent ]
That's the ticket
Shift a county here and there and that's basically my map.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Guys here's my solution
and its a simple one.  You plug Wood county and Juneau(from the 3rd) into CD6. You also give Polk county to CD3.  Then CD7 takes in several rural counties plus Shawano county from CD8 to get equal.  Then CD8 takes over Calumet and Manatowoc from CD6. CD6 takes in balance of Jefferson from CD2.

Its all easy.

I would not anything too drastic with CD3.  This is WI where clean politics is the rule.  No Dane County to Lake superior snake districts here in WI.

If CD7 loses Wood county and I think it should go to CD6, if I was the republicans in WI, that will firm up Duffy plus Lasso is gone.  


[ Parent ]
If you want to get even more extreme
Connect the superior counties with Madison. Although we all know that's not going to happen.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Full Speed Ahead.
   Who drew the State Senate map?! By the Obama/McCain numbers it looks like a Republican gerrymander.

 Also, recall all those bastard Republicans. When I grew up, my parents' unions were my livelihood. Screw those who think that recalls smell funny (or something). Walker is putting livelihoods at stake.

24, Male, GA-05


In 2000
Wisconsin had a Republican governor and assembly, but a Dem senate, according to Jeff's chart.

[ Parent ]
I agree to Cilerder

The senate map looks like very close to a republican gerrymander. It is obvious what the state senate was not able to change that in the 2002 redistricting process. In many of these states what go from red to blue, the basis of the map comes from older gerrymanders.

[ Parent ]
2000 maps were drawn by a court
In 2001, Democrats held the Senate and Republicans held the Assembly, with a Republican governor.  It was a stalemate and a federal court drew the map.

[ Parent ]
The Bush/Kerry numbers are more even
n/t

[ Parent ]
That was my first thought
But, outside of Milwaukee and Madison, the state votes fairly evenly, so you're bound to have a ton of light-blue seats in the rural areas. The Democratic base in the state is concentrated in those two urban centers, so it's hard to spread that vote out over several districts unless you really gerrymander the map. The only other places that don't vote like the rest of the state are the suburban and exurban counties around Milwaukee, which provide those huge McCain margins you see for a few districts.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Besides Madison and Milwaukee, and Waukesha on the other side
Definitely not right to say the state votes fairly evenly outside the two big cities.  It should be noted the "west of Milwaukee" area is extremely Republican.  So, those three areas are hardcore blue and red, and the rest of the state is purplish.

[ Parent ]
Yep, I neglected that
Along with Washington and Ozaukee, the other two deep-red suburban counties near Milwaukee. That's the Republican base, although it doesn't match the Democratic base in size.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Lots of swing territory there
Recalls are very tough to pull off, but if they were attempted and even one was successful, it would be interesting to see. Looking at the numbers, Republicans did not have enough capital to really overreach and this thing with the unions could prove disastrous.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Democrats would be much more energized
So turn-out in a special recall election should not be a problem.

[ Parent ]
And specials are super-unpredictable
Special elections are unpredictable anyway, but with strong passions ablaze, that makes it even MORE unpredictable in terms of who is going to turn out. The thing is, I could see quite a few of those seats flipping in a low-turnout special. Honestly, anything that Obama even came close to winning (say, 45%+) has a chance of flipping. And yeah, Democrats are riled up and I have a hard time believing Republican voters are going to get energized over the thought of denying their kid's teacher the right to bargain collectively.

And even if they didn't flip, I would imagine that the threat of an impending recall election could suddenly cause Walker's already-shaky Republican caucus to accept some sort of compromise.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
It would be so much fun!
Obama won 6 out of the 8 Republican seats eligible for recall and I for one am still suffering from post-election depression and withdrawal. I would love to take a trip up to Wisconsin if door-knocking is involved and many of my democratic colleagues are newly unemployed.

[ Parent ]
Very Interesting
Going by 2008 margins, Hopper, Darling and Kapanke all seem extremely vulnerable - very slim margins in Democratic districts. But we would have to run in the table in these three to win the State Senate. By the numbers, Harsdorf might be vulnerable as well, but I think the viability of this effort would depend on challenging the R Senators in Obama districts who went unchallenged last time(Cowles and Olsen). Anybody know if these two might? Did they go unchallenged as a result of local candidate recruiting failure, or do they have genuine bipartisan appeal?  

Cowles
Robert Cowles is generally considered to be a moderate republican. He is a proponent of alternative energy and supports more environmental protections than a typical republican. He also depicts himself as a fiscal hawk who tries to curb wasteful spending. He hasn't had a significant challenger in some time, and has served in the senate since the 1980s. I think he was fairly well-regarded by independents and some democrats (at least before this budget repair bill debate).  

[ Parent ]
Re: Olsen
Olsen is looked upon quite favorably by unions, or at least was before this all, which meant he was an easy Republican endorsee to demonstrate non-partisanship. This sapped most of the potential support for a Democratic challenger. Also, the state Democratic party sometimes has trouble with strategy and targeting, which didn't help much.

Much of the Republican senate caucus (including leadership) has been not so bad on labor issues, which is why there is a small chance this bill will fail.


[ Parent ]
I would put Sheila Harsdorf next on the list
But there's no question that we have some slim pickings. . .

Harsdorf's district
Extremely minimal improvement for Obama over Kerry. That kind of district always makes me nervous, sort of like an NY-13. You have to wonder why the folks there didn't like Obama any more than they liked Kerry, while much of the rest of the state was giving Obama much higher marks than Kerry.

[ Parent ]
Losing NY-13 was my one jaw drop moment of election night
And districts that shifted very little from Kerry to Obama got such little focus compared to Appalachian districts that made big shifts towards the GOP.

[ Parent ]
Twin Cities Exurbs
Harsdorf's districts contain the rapidly growing (percentage-wise) Twin-Cities Exurbs, especially St. Croix County.  Like most exurban growth, this means the areas have become more Republican as opposed to the more swingy rural counties further east.  

[ Parent ]
Thank You very much David

It is very interesting. I hope you post it at DailyKos, sure you have a big success with this diary.

Then Kapanke is just the most vulnerable state senator to a recall and the five first of the list are in decent danger since they represent districts what Obama wins. Very good new. It would be necessary a succesful recall of three of these republicans.


One concern troll
I read someplace was whining that our Dem guys could be recalled too in retaliation if we tried recalled these GOP guys.

This data shows that none of the Democrat state senators are really vulnerable at all thanks to the gerrymandered districts.  


Hansen and Holperin
Those are the two that would be feasible targets for the GOP in Wisconsin (most of the marginal seats flipped in 2010.) Both districts are in Ribble's 8th (Hansen in Green Bay, Holperin in the north-central), and both gave Bush small margins and Obama a more comfortable win. I don't think there will be a serious recall effort against Democratic State Senators though, because if public opinion shifts to the Walker side, he'll be content to simply pass his agenda and won't waste political capital hunting for a couple extra votes in the Senate.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
They're trying to recall Holperin
So, let them do it, if they do, Wisconsin would have decided what they wanted.


[ Parent ]
Holperin has a 53% Obama district

(and Hansen 56% Obama district)

Is this vulnerable to a teabagger fueled recall in an environment like this? I doubt it seriously.

Then... they have very hard work... It seems only wish of do something, but without chance of good result (for the teabaggers).


[ Parent ]
Obama's numbers in Wisconsin are pretty much irrelevant
Obama way overperformed in Wisconsin. The Kerry/Bush numbers are a much better baseline.

[ Parent ]
Sure? I think they are not a big difference

Obama wins 56% of the vote while the current rating of Wisconsin is D+2 (would be 55% Obama in 2008). It is not a big difference for take reference.

Then we can be talking about R+1 and D+2 state senate districts.

2010 election was bad for the democrats in Wisconsin, but this environment seems not the same. The democrats are waking up, and Obama voters seems not the voters what the teabaggers need for win a recall.

I'm not very worried cause of this bids for recall just cause of the environment, just cause of see the democrats waking up.

I see a lot higher danger for the republicans. They are a decent number of them in Obama state senate districts, and Obama voters are potential recall voters.

Just I take the percentage of Obama voters because it seems so hard see Obama voters following a teabagger recall of democratic state senators.


[ Parent ]
I personally don't think Obama over-performed in WI
+10 points from Bush +3% to Obama +7%, 14% is in the realm of 11%.  And from my MN analyses, I know the rural areas shifted more heavily than others which easily applies to WI as well.  Bigger shift for WI compared to MN because WI is more rural based than MN.

[ Parent ]
I don't
besides the fact Obama overperformed in Wisconsin, teabaggers have had luck in areas where Obama won more than 53% of the vote. (Long Island, NY for example)


[ Parent ]
yes but this was in 2010

The democrats from Wisconsin seems to wake up, and Obama voters (despite a little overperform) are not likely followers of a teabagger fueled recall.

[ Parent ]
If they want to waste money and time on it,
by all means, they should. The energy in this fight is all on one side, and it isn't theirs. Over the past few weeks, the enthusiasm gap has tilted hard to the Dems, at least in Wisconsin.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the teabaggers came to one puny rally...
To which the national media couldn't help but breathlessly report on, but that's it...

Meanwhile, our side still keeps going...


[ Parent ]
Bad polls for Walker Tommorow?
Tweet from for Political Comm Dir for AFL-CIO.

http://twitter.com/#!/evale72

evale72 evale72
Reading some polling...Walker is not going to have a fun day tomorrow....


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Just saw a report on Maddow
that while Walker was County Executive of Milwaukee he unilaterally fired 26 union guards and replaced them with non union guards. This was against the vote and the wishes of the county council. An arbitrator ruled recently that Walker overstepped his bounds and ordered that they be given their jobs back and back pay. This was apparently played out on the local news stations for a while. It can't be good for his polling.

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news...  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


[ Parent ]
how did he become county exec
of a county as liberal as Milwaukee County?!

[ Parent ]
Spring Elections
County Exec is a spring race, held in April, so it's usually low turnout. Also, he was first elected in a recall of the previous county exec, who was caught stealing money from the pension fund (or something). Don't ask me how he was reelected.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of spring races
Isn't there a WI Supreme Court race between I think the chief justice and JoAnne Kloppenburg?  This April?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Can't wait to see
When WAA shows majority opposition in WI, that's a great omen.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Tweet From Nate Silver
Nate Silver
fivethirtyeight Nate Silver
Democratic pollster GQR will have Wisconsin numbers out in the morning. Still also hoping for a nonpartisan poll or two.
5 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
That WAA poll
showing 53/43 oppposition to the proposition was promising enough for me.  Also, PPP might poll it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I wonder if the AFL-CIO commissioned that GQR poll...
As for non-partisan polls, I guess someone in the local media would have to do it... probably with SurveyUSA, since that seems to be the local TV channel favorite lately.


[ Parent ]
Budget cuts
This is slightly off topic, but I'm trying to clear up some possible confusion I may have.

When did the Senate Democrats accept the budget cuts and increased contributions, at the beginning or within the last day or two? My impression was that the Democrats had accepted the cuts before they left the state, but an article I read today seemed to suggest otherwise. Which is it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Before
they have been saying all along they supported a vote on the cuts (though most would vote no)


[ Parent ]
What about the unions themselves?
Again, I hate to seem ignorant, but I am trying to sort through the bullshit.

My impression is that the unions accepted the cuts and changes as part of a compromise. Is that accurate?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
The biggest state union did...
And some others, but not all of them.

[ Parent ]
Okay.
Well, at the risk of asking too many more questions and getting this thread off topic, I'll ask you if you have a recommendation about which sites to read to follow this story? I'm trying to keep up with it, but like I said, it's hard to sort through the bullshit.

On a tenuously related note, I was thinking of you today as I was considering just how angry I am over this. We've never had a huge blowout argument, but it seems like we are often on different sides when it comes to the way we look at what's happening and when it comes to economic and social values. But I would be astonished if you were any less pissed than I am about what is happening. It's an absolute outrage that Walker is lying though his teeth about what's happening. It's even worse than smart people, who aren't directly affected and would presumably be interested in the truth, are buying into his crap. And perhaps it's just because I am feeling like crap about a lot of things in my life and am just being negative about everything, but also seems unfair in any number of ways. It seems like the conservatives always fucking win, no matter how badly they fuck things up. Life certainly isn't fair and disappointments can easily be frequent, but it's not supposed to be as one-sided. It's just...exasperating to watch. It's gotten to the point where I can feel it wearing on my soul, even if it shouldn't. I imagine you feel the same way.

Anyway, there's no real point here, except to suggest that if we knew each other in real life, we'd probably make good drinking buddies over this crap.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
LOL! Thanks! I would enjoy having a drink with you!
And, yes, I've been so upset I haven't really slept in a week.  My wife thinks I'm physically ill, which I basically am over this crap (having had such little sleep and being in a daze).  I've even been pondering asking the question that dare not be asked:  How does the Democratic party survive in a post-union world.  If the GOP has their way in the various states, we may need to contemplate that scenario and that isn't good.  There are certainly going to be some losses, regardless, and I read that AFSCME went into the red in 2010 trying to support our candidates.  They can't afford any more losses!

I am as frustrated as you with the lack of real info or a central source of information.  The best info I've found is with the Wisconsin newspaper sites and Channel 3000--I don't know what that is, but they have timely Wisconsin news, I guess... They seem to be the first to break any of the stories, but provide little detail, usually.

The real frustration is that we're getting no inside information on anything.  No leaks or insight from the two camps, nothing... I don't know why that is, but it is maddening.  Since there is no centralized site with all the info, it only makes it worse.  Twitter is essentially useless, too.  Even the WI blogs are way behind.

I do remember our fights, but I don't remember what they were about.  So, here's a virtual beer on me!  :(B)


[ Parent ]
Whoops... apologize for the double post! n/t


[ Parent ]
I try to take the view
that even if one party or the groups supporting them ends up destroyed in some way, it's only temporary. That's why, around 2008, when people were saying the Republicans were essentially done, I smiled and nodded a little: even if they end up being finished as a party, there will be some new group taking their place. The right just doesn't go away. Neither will the left. But in the mean time, it's frustrating as hell, and a lot of people can suffer.

I guess if there's a silver lining in this, it's that the Republicans will suffer at some point. I just hope the Democrats are prepared to seize the moment and milk the political situation for all it is worth.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Oh, as for the conservatives always win part...
It's 'cos when they are in power, they don't fuck around like our guys did, vacillating and worrying and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy in the end anyways.  Oh, and people are stupid and vote in these idiots and then act surprised when they do exactly what they said they were going to do.

Yes, it's frustrating and it wears on my soul a lot.  I think of the happy times of 2008 and wonder how we managed to end up here!  


[ Parent ]
King of like when
Sheila Johnson was upset and shocked and greatly disillusioned when McDonnell wanted a Confederacy Rememberance Day.  My first thought was: "What did you expect?!  Did you seriously think he'd be any different!?!"

Also, conservatives don't win as often as we fear.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I basically agree.
I'm not sure of the legislative possibilities, but assuming there weren't insurmountable roadblocks, I often wonder what it would have been like if the Obama administration found a way to pass a $2 trillion stimulus (or more, if necessary) with the caveat that it could be repealed. Whatever temporary setbacks would have been overshadowed, I think, by the good things that would have followed.

If and when he's reelected and takes back the House, which would almost certainly mean keeping the senate, I hope they act relatively quickly in passing some sort of tax reform that raises additional revenue. I don't care if they end up suffering badly for it, in a political sense, in 2014. The economic teams can figure out the right rates that will prevent too much distortion and harm to the economy and the Democrats can simply stay on message that this is a move towards fiscal responsibility and all that crap.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
What about the unions themselves?
Again, I hate to seem ignorant, but I am trying to sort through the bullshit.

My impression is that the unions accepted the cuts and changes as part of a compromise. Is that accurate?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Very correct
The Dems have told Walker, eliminate the collective bargaining nonsense and we'll accept the pay cuts for a deficit you created through tax cuts.  A post on DK pointed something interesting and that's in the six days the bill was introduced and about to be voted on, the CfG had ads ready to go on day one.

Shit, now I'm really going to get all Glenn Beck conspiracy theory; but I wouldn't doubt for a second that this is a very coordinated effort by Koch, CfG, et all to crush the Dems main source of money to counter the GOP's big spending corporations.  I guess the difference is that mine is plausible and is something intelligent people would do.  IIRC, Rove had a specialty in fundraising in TX.  (I remember very, very vague info on it and here's one stab at it; he worked hard to get a GOP SCOTX majority so they could change campaign finance laws and oil companies could donate unlimitedly to the GOP?)


[ Parent ]
Ok
Now, you've got me scared.  Fortunately people struck back  against this VERY hard, something they were not expecting.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Did he create the deficits
through the tax cuts? The link below says this isn't the case, once you look at the details.

http://politifact.com/wisconsi...

Still, there's no denying this is political in every sense. Part of it is ideological in the sense that these guys just don't like unions, I think, but I am beginning to think a lot of it is about destroying a funding source for Democrats.

By any chance, do you remember the big Jane Mayer article on the Koch brothers in The New Yorker a few months ago? I don't remember if I read it, but my impression at the time was that they felt they were being unfairly maligned for doing, well, exactly what it looks like they are doing now. I guess I should look for it tomorrow to read.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Quick PVI count for all recall-eligible state senators
2 Cowles R R+1
4 Taylor D D+33
6 Coggs D D+36
8 Darling R R+2
10 Harsdorf R R+3
12 Holperin D _+0
14 Olsen R R+1
16 Miller D D+13
18 Hopper R R+2
20 Grothman R R+17
22 Wirch D D+4
24 Lassa D D+6
26 Risser D D+28
28 Lazich R R+14
30 Hansen D D+3
32 Kapanke R D+8

Dems in order of increasing PVI
12 Holperin D _+0
30 Hansen D D+3
22 Wirch D D+4
24 Lassa D D+6
16 Miller D D+13
26 Risser D D+28
4 Taylor D D+33
6 Coggs D D+36

Repubs in order of decreasing PVI
32 Kapanke R D+8
2 Cowles R R+1
14 Olsen R R+1
8 Darling R R+2
18 Hopper R R+2
10 Harsdorf R R+3
28 Lazich R R+14
20 Grothman R R+17

Looks like, given generic candidates and an even year, they're more at risk.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


When would the recall elections take place?
The large base of liberals in the Twin Cities could certainly do a lot of work Kapanke's district and do a lot for GOTV operations.  (Roughly two car ride to the district from MSP.)  There is also a liberal college town of 27k residents across the river from Kapanke's district along with a few other river towns with easy bridge access.

I hear that WI Senate Repubs passed a bill that would require tax increases to pass by a 2/3 vote
Kind of ironic that they don't need a 2/3 vote to pass that.

Though, how about the Dems make a bill that has tax breaks require a 2/3 vote?  Or would that be counterproductive?--in which case we can always tell the senate Repubs to go back and pass Walker's tax breaks by a 2/3 vote, or malign them for it.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Imagine what would happen
if they tried to pass a bill that made it more difficult for corporations to form in Wisconsin or something similar. The business community would shit itself in anger, and probably rightfully so.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]

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