Can't there be a minority-majority...

seat in NoVA? I've done it before with the overall population in VA-11. Would bumping up minority population to over 50% of the voting age population satisfy DoJ?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:59:13 AM UTC

No rules about where they can be situated

As far as I'm concerned. Just create two of `em!

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:02:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your wish is my command!

Behold, Sir DavidNYC. :-D

Here's what I have so far for NoVA:

VA-08
65.5% Obama (D)
35.5% McCain (R)
61.0% White

VA-10
50.8% Obama (D)
49.2% McCain (R)
71.3% White

VA-11
61.9% Obama (D)
38.1% McCain (R)
43.6% White (46.8% voting age)
23.8% Latino (21.7% voting age)
17.4% African American (16.8% voting age)
11.7% Asian American (12.1% voting age)


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 04:15:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I could get used to

This whole knighthood thing. :)

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 04:38:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This one I'll try

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:00:02 AM UTC

Well, it's pretty well-established

that the DOJ can't do this under Section 5 of the VRA. What VA has to worry about is a section 2 seat. But I think they have a pretty plausible defense: they can't draw a second VRA district in the south without pulling the black VAP of the 3rd district below 50% (or drawing a racial gerrymander), and that might be retrogressive.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:14:55 AM UTC

Erg, section 2 *suit*

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by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:15:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

and there will be no purposefully-drawn majority-minority seat in NOVA.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:52:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why not?

I'm not trying to be antagonistic. I'm just wondering why DoJ wouldn't accept a minority-majority NoVA seat, especially if:

1. We're proving it CAN be done.

2. They really want a 2nd minority-majority Virginia district.

3. There's a significant non-white population throughout much of NoVA, particularly in Fairfax and Prince William Counties.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 04:19:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You misunderstand me

the point is not that the DOJ wouldn't accept a second minority-majority district. Rather, it's that it can't use its VRA § 5 preclearance authority to demand one.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:48:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Several Reasons

First, Section 5 does not give DOJ the authority to demand the creation of additional VRA seats. They can only look at retrogression and whether the plan is intended to dilute minority voters.

Second, even if such a seat were created, it wouldn't be protected by the VRA. The Supreme Court laid out a requirement in Thornburg v. Gingles that minority voters constitute a politically cohesive unit and whites have to vote sufficiently as a bloc usually to defeat the minority's preferred candidate.  There isn't evidence of either in NOVA.  Not all minorities are the same.

My last reason is related to the previous point. Purposefully creating a majority-minority district is subject to strict scrutiny under the 14th Amendment, and because the district isn't required by the VRA, it can't survive strict scrutiny and would be unconstitutional.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 06:47:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't Think So

I think the point is it is possible to drawn a minority-majority district in the South without pulling the black VAP of the 3rd under 50%.  

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by: FreeDem @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 04:46:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Drew One By Accident

If you're trying to district the state the way you think the compromise will go, and assume Moran's district will look somewhat similar to how it looks now (Arlington + Alexandria + Falls Church + whatever you use to get over to Reston) if you drew the best Dem district for Connolly out of what's left, you probably draw a minority-majority seat without necessarily trying to do so.

The end result is one with a white plurality in the 40s, but with all three other racial groups (White, Hispanic, and Black) having double-digit shares of the population. The aren't probably many districts like that in the country.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:27:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

VA

Would this give us 4 seats?

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:36:16 AM UTC

The map I previously posted

Had a majority-minority district in NOVA and 2 in the rest of the state.  The problem is that it's quite hard to make both of the other districts majority black by voting age population (at least with the precision of the redistricting app, sorry Dave) and I can't see the DOJ forcing another one drawn if it has to be majority black by voting age. On the other hand, it would be quite easier if the districts needed to be only plurality black by total population.

Regardless, with 3 majority-minority districts plus VA-08 the Republicans could still draw a pretty effective 7-4 gerrymander with Frank Wolf's district the only one where Dems have any chance at a pick up.  That sort of configuration, or any other 7-4, depends on how willing they would be to trade one seat to shore up the others, which leads me to think that having a second VRA district in the tidewater would hurt Democrats in the long term by locking in the rest of the potential pick-up seats.

NC-06/NC-04

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by: sawolf @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:38:32 AM UTC

They have to be careful about Wolf's seat though

He'll hold it no matter what, but if they let it become too Democratic, they'll have problems in the long run.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:48:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm

If this happens - and it seems like a long shot to me, Virginia's 20% AA population notwithstanding - the question is whether it must be a black-majority seat, or just a majority-minority seat. If the former, Randy Forbes is probably screwed. But if the latter, why wouldn't they just make one of the NoVa Dem seats (Connolly or Moran) majority-minority, with considerable numbers of Asians, blacks, and Hispanics but no dominant ethnic group? That preserves the incumbent protection plan while (in name, at least) satisfying any potential VRA requirements.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:40:00 AM UTC

Here's a potential VA-11

It's plurality VAP white at 41%, hispanic 23%, black 18%, Asian 15%, and still works pretty well as a vote sink for the incumbent protection scheme at 65% Obama.

NC-06/NC-04

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by: sawolf @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:59:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think you cut Gerry Connolly's house

out of his district!  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:46:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Connolly can move, he shouldn't be lazy! :P n/t

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:48:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I just posted a map for the compromise scenario...

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

For your consideration.

I'll take a look at doing this later tonight, if I get a chance...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 06:03:30 AM UTC

I fear

If a second majority-minority seat is required in some fashion that the deal between McDonnell/House delegates and the State Senate will fall through, leading the GOP to stall until after the 2011 elections which could lead to the GOP controlling everything.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 12:11:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great discussion on VRA

and on the surface I agree 100% that DOJ cannot force a second VRA seat in SE Virginia

1. Trying to be careful here and not called a liar, again, but Bartlett case says 50% for protected minority. That's 50% VAP for a particular minority group not a group of minorities.  So for AA's in SE Virginia that more like 53 to 54% or more to get to 50% AA.

2. The framework of this SE VA seat would be Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton city.  Those four places have 80% of the folks needed for a CD but just regular AA% looks like 45% for those areas.  I don't think you can get to 50% VAP without splitting and cutting up county and city lines.  That's not required under Section II.  

3. In NOVA section II as modified by Bartlett & Shaw does not required a minority majority seat because no protected minority gets to 50% VAP.  Hispanics, Asians and AA's cannot be combined as they are not specific protected communities.  

That's my reading of the law and as noted the very bright congressman involved in this VA map are following my same legal logic.  Believe me Bobby Scott would be wanting a second AA seat in SE virginia if it could be had.  

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 12:52:56 PM UTC

Here's my full map!

VA-01 (Dark Ocean Blue)
Population:
727,325
71.6%  White VAP

2008 Vote:
44.7% Obama (D)
55.3% McCain (R)

Hampton Roads/Richmond Close-up

VA-02 (Dark Forest Green)
Population:
727,229
65.5% White VAP

2008 Vote:
49.7% Obama (D)
50.3% McCain (R)

VA-03 (Dark Magenta)
Population:
726,746
50.2% African American VAP
39.5% White VAP

2008 Vote:
74.3% Obama (D)
25.7% McCain (R)

VA-04  (Deep Red)
Population:
727,209
62.6% White VAP

2008 Vote:
49.8% Obama (D)
50.2% McCain (R)

VA-05 (Light Gold)
Population:
726,972
72.5% White VAP

2008 Vote:
45.5% Obama (D)
54.5% McCain (R)

VA-06 (Teal)
Population:
727,999
84.5% White VAP

2008 Vote:
44.5% Obama (D)
55.5% McCain (R)

VA-07 (Silver)
Population:
727,238
71.2% White VAP

2008 Vote:
46.7% Obama (D)
53.3% McCain (R)

NoVA/DC Metro Close-up

VA-08 (Slate Blue)
Population:
728,039
61.0% White VAP

2008 Vote:
65.5% Obama (D)
35.5% McCain (R)

VA-09 (Cyan)
Population:
727,454
91.3% White VAP

2008 Vote:
39.9% Obama (D)
60.1% McCain (R)

VA-10 (Rose Pink)
Population:
727,489
71.3% White VAP

2008 Vote:
50.8% Obama (D)
49.2% McCain (R)

VA-11 (Chartreuse)
Population:
727,324
46.8% White VAP
21.7% Latino VAP
16.8% African American VAP
12.1% Asian American VAP

2008 Vote:
61.9% Obama (D)
38.1% McCain (R)


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 16:08:17 PM UTC

4

4 minority majority. Not what they were going for but i thought it was fun to do! If anyone wants stats lemme know.

18, Dem, PA-7

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by: Warning_Crazy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 03:07:31 AM UTC