I'm curious to see the maps people will make...

Still don't think they should have caved like this, the State Senate should still try to stop them, but they probably won't.  8-3 in an Obama state (which he will probably win again) is outrageous.

Ugh, Creigh Deeds, you fool.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

---

by: lidem89 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 03:39:45 AM UTC

I wouldn't say it's that bad

The Democrats will be competitive in VA-10 (51% Obama) and VA-02 (49% Obama), assuming Dave Wasserman's numbers are accurate. 6-3-2 could be worse. It's just emblematic of the Democrats' major strategic disadvantage in the House, where their support is heavily concentrated in a few areas in Virginia (Richmond/Fairfax) while Republican strength is more evenly spread out. A "fair" House map with 5-6 Democrat-leaning seats would require splitting communities of interest like crazy.

---

by: InRepublican @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:28:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, it's really just

that Bobby Scott's district is such a vote sink. It takes in so many black voters in the Piedmont. I recently drew a "fair" map where his district was still 51% black, but VA-02 took in some of the Piedmont areas and became a 60% Obama district. Basically there should be, and has traditionally been, one Democratic district in that region, Republicans have just split it up between 4 districts, creating  two marginal Republican districts, one relatively reliable Republican district, and packing all the black voters into an extended tendril of Scott's district.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:45:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So Is Moran's

VA-08 has to be the most Democratic majority-white district anywhere in the Old Confederacy. (Unless one of the South Florida districts edges it out.)

Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Reston are all pretty Democratic and liberal.

The reason we have Gerry Connolly now is that the rest of Fairfax County (and to a lesser extent Prince William County) has gotten more diverse and more Democratic. So even if you pack as many Democrats as you can into the 8th, there's now a lot of territory left over that's pretty hostile to Republicans. Tom Davis held VA-11 longer than anyone else would have for the GOP.

Interestingly enough, you could create a minority-majority district in NoVA, and it really wouldn't change much in terms of D vs. R.  

But the Tidewater/Hampton Roads area, sadly, isn't like that. There's a lot more racial polarization in voting patterns down there.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:56:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, Tidewater

I really don't know why I've been sitting around calling it the Piedmont region. Syllabic thing I guess.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:07:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In Fact

Assuming Wasserman's map is a good guess at how the lines are drawn, not only would the 10th and 2nd be competitive, but so would the 4th (Obama won in 2008 and under Wasserman's lines would be 49% Obama). Longer shots but still competitive over the decade would be the 5th (46% Obama, about two points more Republican than old lines), the 1st (47% Obama, actually about one point more Democratic than the old lines), and maybe even the 7th (about 47% Obama, a point more Democratic than the old lines). In order to make the 5th and 2nd safer they've had to weaken the 7th and 1st.

The problem isn't the lines in Virginia, it's the candidates and the types of campaigns they run. From 2002 to 2010 there were only THREE viable Democratic challengers to incumbents (not Connolly's open seat victory): Perriello, Nye, and Kellam. Democrats in Virginia seem to give up too easily and don't even bother running real candidates.  

---

by: FreeDem @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 14:40:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You nail it well...

You definitely bring up the biggest issue is that there just have yet to be those credible challengers. Forbes has hardly even broken a sweat in the decade. Goodlatte while in a tough district for Dems didn't have an opponent multiple times. With this map the definitely can be credible challenges map to Whittman, Forbes, Hurt and Rigell. Rigell's personal financial wealth makes a lot of people afraid to take him on though. Wolf is likely locked into his seat but an open situation could yield a pickup. Cantor would likely only be vulnerable with a third party candidate splitting the right vote. Feder just couldn't connect with voters and Wolf has done a pretty amazing job of keeping his head down and not giving people a reason to dump him.

Under this map Moran and Scott are super safe and Connolly if he gets Reston and Herndon and dumps parts of PWC and Springfield he's going to be pretty darn safe. The Dems just need to start campaigning!!!!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 16:44:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

VA

Why in the world are Democrats agreeing to this?  Were they not able to go to court to get maps if they couldn't get another seat or at least weaken one or two of the other Republicans?

The fact that a swing state like VA is going to have an 8-3 quasi permanent delegation is disgusting.  Especially when you consider we are getting screwed in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania as well.  At least here we have somewhat of a say.

29/D/Male/NY-01

---

by: Tekzilla @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 03:40:31 AM UTC

Not a mystery:

they want to secure their hold on the state senate. I don't blame them.

---

by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 03:46:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

no, it makes sense

They want to hold the State Senate. Antagonize McDonnell and the State House and that's in jeopardy. Play ball with incumbent protection and everybody wins (except challengers of course).

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

---

by: Nathaniel90 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:41:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I prefer the country win

Forcing a non-gerrymandered map for everything is far better than agreeing to an ass-protecting one.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:53:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obviously, but

in the meantime, Virginia does not have a nonpartisan commission and politicians will be politicians.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

---

by: Nathaniel90 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:24:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So then you agree it doesn't make sense?

You just summed up the reasons to agree with Tekzilla.  There is no reason to like this map.  A deadlock would be better.  

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:29:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd rather secure the

State Senate and keep Republicans from having a Wisconsin opportunity here.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:37:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd rather not be a party that gives up all hope

and tries to cling to a pathetic two seat seat margin.  A gerrymandered slim margin is more likely to lead to GOP control of everything than a reasonable map.  It's bad politics, especially in a state trending toward Dems.  

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:48:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think it's going to be a gerrymandered

slim margin. The point of the bargain seems to be that the Senate Dems get to go all out and gerrymander themselves 25-27 easy seats, thus keeping some sort of bulwark against any possible Republican trifecta. Which is a really big deal, and in exchange the State House will get gerrymandered again, and the national maps will be more or less in a similar position.

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 07:49:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now way they can draw themselves 25 seats

Even with a full on Dem Gerrymander of the state Senate map I'd put retention odds at no better than 5-4. Without a "fair" drawn map the GOP would probably have a firm advantage.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:09:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's the South

Unions are screwed there anyway, and have been since FDR left office.

---

by: Englishlefty @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 22:50:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We don't even know for sure what the map looks like

We have speculation informed by a Politico article. So you're really jumping the gun. Especially if you're taking Davis's description of the political outcome of the map as seriously as his description of the tangible geography of it. Best as I can tell, it's not an 8-3 map. It's a 5-3-3 map, which is pretty much where we are already.

And that's not even accounting for what state senate Democrats apparently are getting out of the overall bargain -- a free hand to draw their own map. Virginia needs a Democratic state senate a lot more than it needs an extra two or three Democratic federal House members.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:43:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No it doesn't

I can't even imagine how you could type that.

And you are the one jumping the gun.  You are making assumptions there is no evidence of.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:50:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You really can't imagine

how someone could come to a different evaluation of the political situation than you do? Like, can't imagine it at all? Really?

We're currently down 48 seats in the US House. An extra couple of Democrats from Virginia does absolutely nothing in a vacuum. Even if an extra couple of seats would clinch Democrats retaking the US House in the near future, which is a gigantic assumption, the extreme dysfunction of the US Senate limits how much good can get done at the federal level right now. Meanwhile, the Virginia Senate Democrats are doing an (admittedly imperfect) job of limiting how much harm the state Republicans can do. And we have the blazing example in Wisconsin right now to show just how much harm that can be. I don't want McDonnell to have a rubber stamp legislature, and if worst comes to worst I'm willing to agree with the (admittedly self-interested) state senate Democrats that its worth trading away a couple of US House seats to accomplish that.

And that's assuming that we are trading away those seats. Because if deadlock leads to a court map, and a court map leads to a unified Republican control of the state government (which is entirely probable, given the way that the combination of our urban & inner suburban base and single-member districts work together against us on a state level), then they can just pass their map then.

As for evidence, I assume you're talking about my claim that's a 5-3-3 map. Just have to look downthread a little ways to see why I said what I did. If you combine the Politico article with the realities of Virginia's political demography and geography, you get something like Wasserman's map. And Wasserman's map is a 5-3-3. Roguemapper and I posted charts.

But if you don't believe us, take the thread's challenge. See if you can combine things in Dave's App to come up with truly solid 8-3 map for the Republicans. Come up with a map to scare me into believing that the Republicans can hold all eight of their seats for ten years, no problem. I don't think it can be done.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 07:45:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dude, you're being ridiculous on this, this is a good deal for Dems, period.......

I live here.  I have a wife and a young daughter and young son here.  My daughter starts kindergarten in public school in a few months.  We have a mortgage here.  I drive on the congested roads to get to work and home again.  I rely on police and firemen and so many other public employees to keep my family safe and make life easier and better.

Life for those of us who actually live in Virginia simply gets worse if Democrats lose the state Senate.  That's what politics is about, making life worse or better for real people, not some roll of the dice to try to pick up a trivial seat or two in the U.S. House when winning it back is a longshot in the first place.

And there's something else here you don't realize:  we have state legislative elections this November, everyone in both chambers is up.  If state Senate Dems play hardball, McDonnell and state legislative Republicans will just shrug, try to take back the state Senate this November, with no worse than a 50-50 shot at succeeding...and then they shut us out of redistricting altogether.

I'm thrilled by this Congressional map, especially if it's part of a grand bargain to let Dick Saslow draw the state Senate map however we need.  Hell, I trade up from Frank Wolf to Jim Moran in McLean, where I live.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:03:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

House of Delegates

Do you not remember though that it was this part of the General Assembly that basically stopped Tim Kaine from being able to do ANYTHING during his term? Howell would constantly say that he wanted to prevent Kaine from being able to do anything popular like Warner did in persuading the General Assembly to pass his budget plan. A Republican-controlled and RoVA affiliated House of Delegates will frankly stop NoVA from progressing as well as it can. After Bob McDonnell's one time debt financed transportation infusion runs out a Republican House of Delegates will NEVER commit to a new infusion accompanied by a stable funding source since they are so anti-tax. The House of Delegates is simply a reactionary body while the Senate is only left of center.

---

by: georgetownsfs10 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 21:40:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure, but so what? We don't get a say in redistricting the lower chamber no matter what......

There's no getting the GOP to accept a House map that jeapordizes GOP control, especially when it's 61-39 to begin with so that they'd have to accept over a dozen of their seats becoming more vulnerable, compared to none of ours.  If you have a plan that could force their hand, I'm sure the Virginia House Democratic Caucus would love to hear from you!

That the House of Delegates screws us is exactly why we must do whatever it takes to get a better state Senate map for our side.  And accepting an 8-3 GOP Congressional map where Wolf and Rigell are only slightly safer than before, but Connolly is a lock, all in exchange for letting Saslow write the state Senate map and surrendering the House of Delegates, is a great deal.

Again, remember Republicans could just stall until after this November's elections, when all state legislators in both chambers are up, and win back the state Senate and then redistrict a brutal gerrymander that destroys us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 23:31:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're talking pure defeatism

Seriously give it some thought and think of the bigger picture.

Would you want the same in Wisconsin?  In Michigan?

Why would any Democrat would want to permanently cede three US seats, and control of one chamber, just so they could cling to a narrow majority in one chamber in perpetuity?

Let's try to aim a little higher than the level of pathetic defeatists.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:03:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Pathetic defeatists"

Is a little harsh. Let's be easy... we're all friends here.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:33:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't agree with him

but I think his kind of rhetoric is useful. Make room on the left for the compromise! Because if I were a Republican, I'd be fuming at this deal. The Republicans traded away a trifecta for their own parochial political interests.

It's pretty much the opposite of the situation in New York.

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 03:21:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not when it's directed at other community members

I don't think we need to be calling each other "pathetic."

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 07:34:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You really are not tethered to reality at all, are you?......

You have this abstract notion to play a game of chicken against the Republicans without any recognition that we have hardly any leverage to play that game.

Are you even aware of basic facts?

State legislative elections here are this November, not 2012.  There are no coattails to ride, it's all state legislative and local elections.  Unlike all but one or two other states, only federal offices are on the ballot in even-numbered years here.

The state Senate is a tenuous hold, and under the current map we'd be likely to lose the chamber this fall.  Several of our state Senators are in conservative districts, and one or two likely to retire.  Our pickup opportunities are virtually nil.

The only way to improve our chances is to gerrymander the state Senate map......which we can't do unilaterally because the GOP has the lower chamber, with a massive 61-39 majority, and the Governorship.

Your pie-in-the-sky nonsense would result in Republicans saying "fuck you" to state Senate Democrats, waiting until after November when they take the state Senate, then drawing a potential 9-2 GOP Congressional map by way of putting Connolly in more jeopardy, instead of less.

Do you get it?

Virginia isn't Wisconsin or Michigan, Virginia is more conservative than those states.  The GOP can't gerrymander those states as aggressively as they can gerrymander Virginia, because there are more liberals and fewer conservatives in those states than in Virginia.

And even the 8-3 map we're apparently getting keeps Wolf's and Rigell's districts competitive, as they'd be only slightly more Republican than now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:42:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tommy

Please ease up a bit. Borodino is right - we need to be able to interact here even when we can't grok what someone else is thinking or feeling.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:36:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Given current demographic trends there are really only two (or at most three) safe GOP seats on this map

Although the rapid blueing and browning of NOVA is well established, what is less widely known is that similar trends are occurring in Hampton Roads and Metro Richmond. Outside of the core cities of Norfolk, Richmond and Portsmouth almost of the suburban counties in these areas (esp Henrico, Chestefield, Chesapeake, and all of North Hampton Roads) have a fast growing African-American population (by as much as 30%-50% in the Richmond suburbs), a rapidly growing Hispanic and Asian Population and a stagnant or declining white population.

See here if you're interested - http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

What this means is that the districts that are swingy or lean-R now (the 2nd, the 4th and the 10th) will be at worst lean-D by the end of the decade, and the districts that are lean-R now (the 7th and the 1st) will at worst be swingy type districts by the end of the decade. The only truly safe districts for the Rs on this map are the 9th and the 6th (the 5th is sort of difficult to categorize because it's a likely R seat with a very slight dem trend due to growth in the Charlottesville ares that likely won't be sufficient to significantly move the partisan needle over the course of the decade).

If the Republicans were smart they'd concede a second majority-minorty seat downstate, and lock in every other downstate rep for them for the rest of the decade (creating either a 7-4 or a 6-5 map depending on what happens in the 10th). With this sort of map the most likely outcome by the end of the decade is a 6-5 Dem Maps (with the 10th, the 2nd and the 4th all flipping) with an real chance of a 8-3 or even 9-2 Dem map (with the 1st 7th and 5th also potentially flipping).

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

---

by: okiedem @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 07:14:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It seems to me

A deadlock would most likely result in an all-GOP map being drawn next year. I can't imagine that would be more favorable for Democrats than 3 safe seats and 3 swing seats (at least, once they're open). It's not difficult to draw safer GOP seats than the ones on this map. A lot of surplus Republicans are being left in VA-06 and VA-09 on this map, and you could pack VA-03 even more effectively.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:44:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup, exactly. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:44:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's Not Quasi-Permanent

Not sure how the GOP strengthens all 8 of their incumbents.

Griffith's district has to grow and there's really no blue areas nearby to drown. Almost anything they could do to strengthen Rigell would weaken either Wittman or Forbes.

I'm not sure there's a way to make VA-10 flat-out noncompetitive in an open seat situation without really making a mess of things in the outer DC burbs and moving VA-01 and/or VA-07 further into the area, which would be a tough pill for Wittman and/or Cantor to swallow. If they're going to give up entirely on VA-11 that might make it easier.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:09:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right on.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:12:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I called this on Thursday

No inside info!.

I know, I know, I should make a pit stop in Atlantic City. :D

---

by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 03:44:09 AM UTC

When is

The contest deadline?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

---

by: Alibguy @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 03:55:50 AM UTC

No real deadline

Seems like no one is doing any maps, though!

---

by: DavidNYC @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 14:32:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably because

1) No one trusts Politico to get its facts right, particularly over details, and particularly over boring, fact-y ones related to redistricting.
2) Not enough people know enough about Virginia to really give it a go.
3) There was no prize listed, and I assume you'd have mentioned babka if there was some to be had.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:00:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Approximate PVIs of Dave's map?

especially on 10 and 11.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 03:59:33 AM UTC

I really can't see how

There's simply no way to make Scott Rigell's district unwinnable for a Democrat, especially without further weakening VA-04.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:00:36 AM UTC

VA-02 doesn't really have to be made any more Republican

It was competitive when Thelma Drake held the seat, because she was such an awful candidate. Rigell is a lot stronger; I'd actually be surprised if the Democrats give him a strong challenge, especially given what a sad state the Virginia Beach Democratic Party is in.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 15:41:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rigell

Rigell is also ridiculously loaded to. That is going to scare off a lot of challengers. I'm not as familiar with Tidewater politics as you are but are there any potential challengers out there? Let's say no to Glenn Nye.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 16:34:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nye has been talking about a rematch

I would say he couldn't get through a Dem primary after his performance over the past two years, but it really doesn't seem like there's anyone else out there who could run. All I can think of are a couple incumbent legislators, Del. Paula Miller (who's likely to have her district carved up in redistricting), and Sen. Ralph Northam (who would probably be almost as centrist as Nye, and hasn't shown any interest in running for Congress).

Former Del. Joe Bouchard would be a great candidate; he only served one term, but he was in a pretty Republican district, and he has pretty good military cred, as he was the commander of the Norfolk Naval Base. However, I haven't heard anything about him looking for another chance at elected office. And the other one-term Delegate from Virginia Beach, Bobby Mathieson, just got nominated to be a U.S. Marshal.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 16:47:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For this...

the VA GOP had sure better let the State Senate Dems have free reign over their Senate map.

Also, I presume Wolf's seat will still be up for grabs once he retires under this map.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:01:01 AM UTC

And by free reign

I of course mean that the House doesn't object (they draw their own map) and neither does the Governor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:38:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasserman's map looks like it fits the description

I haven't redrawn it to check the population deviations or the partisan figures. But it looks like what the geographical hints describe.

But the Republican rhetoric about that map seems absurd. I don't think any fair observer could call that VA-02 a ten-year solid R district. Both VA-01 and VA-10 also strike me as at least plausible Democratic targets at some point in the next ten years. And on the flip side, Wasserman's version of VA-11 is certainly a solid D district, in controvention of Davis's quote.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:30:41 AM UTC

We might have a shot at that VA-10

when Wolf, 72, retires.

---

by: emilysdad @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:37:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I redrew Wasserman's map in Dave's App

to the best of my abilities. Something's wrong somewhere that I can't figure out, because VA-05 is up 5k population while VA-07 is down 5k. They don't share any counties, so if it's an artifact of my drawing as opposed to Wasserman's original map, it's a problem that's chains through at least one other district.

But anyway, 5k shouldn't change things too much. Here are the partisan stats for Wasserman's map.

VA-01 is stronger R and VA-04 is much weaker R than I intuited. I could see all three of VA-02, VA-04, and VA-10 on this map going Democratic at some point in the next ten years. Depending on how developments go in DC's far exurbs (Fauquier, Fredericksburg, Stafford), I could still imagine VA-01 becoming vulnerable. The only districts that I think this map actually shores up beyond reasonable reach for the Democrats are VA-05 and VA-09. And VA-09 was probably gone anyway.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:23:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A bit different

I'm pretty sure I recreated the map accurately, and the greatest variance I have is +944 for VA-07, and +724 for VA-03.

These were the Obama-McCain figures I got:

VA-01: 46.9 - 53.1
VA-02: 48.2 - 51.8
VA-03: 75.9 - 24.1
VA-04: 49.0 - 51.0
VA-05: 46.1 - 53.9
VA-06: 42.6 - 57.4
VA-07: 46.0 - 54.0
VA-08: 66.5 - 33.5
VA-09: 40.0 - 60.0
VA-10: 50.2 - 49.8
VA-11: 61.4 - 38.6

Just some slight differences from your figures.

Democrats should be thrilled with such a map.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:35:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Especially because

the are getting to draw their own state senate map in "return."

I said last week that Ds would be lucky to get this deal.  

---

by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 13:18:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The only way this won't happen

is if the Obama Justice Department forces a second minority-majority district in southern Virginia.

---

by: emilysdad @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 04:35:32 AM UTC

I wondering what the standing requirements are for a lawsuit over the map

Maybe a citizens' group could sue if the Justice Department fails to.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:24:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really can't see what that would look like

it would look totally crazy probably, if it's even possible at all, which I'm not sure it is.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:47:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not crazy at all

especially not compared to the current VA-03.

50.1% African American total pop, 48.2% VAP
71% Obama

50.3% African American total pop, 48.5% VAP
66.5% Obama

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:01:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm, i stand corrected

---

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 06:05:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dave Wasserman seems to think there might be moves to push a second VRA seat

http://twitter.com/#!/Redistrict

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

---

by: okiedem @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 21:23:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's my shot at it

Pretty wacky lines, but I was able to get the 3rd and 4th to about 50.5% VAP black each and both around 70% Obama. The two dem NOVA districts are 64-65% Obama, 6 of the gop districts are above 56% McCain, and the 10th district is 51% McCain, 54% rep.


NC-06/NC-04

---

by: sawolf @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 20:55:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I should add that

the 11th is also majority-minority here and that a couple incumbents had to be drawn out of their districts to make all three majority VAP minority. Of course DOJ would never require something this ridiculous, but it can be done.

NC-06/NC-04

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by: sawolf @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 21:10:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is another way the courts could help

Let's assume that the General Assembly passes what it looks like will happen: a House created House map, a Senate created Senate map, and an incumbent protection map for Congress.

After passage, the map can be challenged in court.  I'd bet that the 3rd is going to be challenged as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander because it stretches from Richmond to Hampton Roads even though its not necessary to comply with the VRA.  Such a suit has a decent chance of succeeding.

If that happens, the percentage of black voters in a redrawn 3rd would have to drop very close to 50%, making a neighboring district winnable for Democrats  

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 07:34:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I've been thinking about this too

This is what I was trying to get at with the question about legal standing above.

So pass the plans, get the benefit of the state senate map, and then sue afterwards to try to get a better congressional map.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

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by: borodino21 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 07:51:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For standing

I think ideally it would be a group of black voters living in Richmond.  They's be claiming an Equal Protection violation.  I'm sure they'd have standing:

Injury- victims of racial gerrymandering
Causation- caused by map passed by VA
Redressability- remove Richmond from the 3rd

Maybe NAACP or another group could organize that?  

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 16:17:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

they's=they'd

nt

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 16:18:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A voter from VA certainly would have standing

and depending on the nature of the suit you might have to tailor your citizens to get the one.  A white voter to claim its a racial gerrymander-a black voter to want another AA seat drawn and so forth.

Not wanting to start an arguement but this map looks alot like the current map.  Logically speaking why would this map not be valid, for VA3, if the current one is?

Bobby Scott is very smart-I have seen him many times on the judiciary committee.  Not much gets by him.  I could mention others on that committee who are past their prime and need to retire but not Scott.  

I have not  heard Scott wonder if his seat is constitutionally viable.  He is even apparently supporting a plan to redo his current seat in a similar fashion.  No smart guys on either the GOP or D side seemed to be concerned with this map from a legal standpoint.  

Not arguing but I think this map would standup just like the current one.  

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by: rdelbov @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:01:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is disappointing but understandable....

As it is right now the State Senate Democrats have achieved a majority with a Republican drawn map. Their hold is pretty minor right now and allowing them to draw their own map will likely allow them to lock in a stronger majority. Under the current Senate map they are toast. A court drawn map is a crap shoot.

I get why the 3 Dems would like their new map but it will be a shame to only have 3 Reps in a closely divided state.

If this map comes true or close to being true there are going to be a lot of barely leaning GOP districts. Though the VADP absolutely sucks at candidate recruitment so that the GOP's ace most likely. Other than the 6th and 9th others likely won't be more than R+6. Whittman looks like he takes on a lot more of PWC for example. Still a tough hurdle to climb but not impossible, I am interested to see what the new 7th is. Cantor looks to have compacted a bit. What I wouldn't give for that empty suit to lose.

I would have loved to have seen a better map and hope that this isn't true but I can't say that I am surprised. We better keep the State Senate now.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:02:19 AM UTC

The State Senate

was pretty much a goner without some favorable mapping, retirements, dwindling rural strength, etc. And after seeing the kind of stuff going on in Indiana, Wisconsin, and, surprisingly, Michigan, (very undemocratic stuff too, I guess Michigan voters should have expected a businessman to run things like a business, which is to say very utilitarian and undemocratic), where a Republican rubberstamp legislature is in with a full trifecta, I'm really not eager for Democrats to lose their last buffer in Virginia.  

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by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 05:50:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't forget what's at stake

If the GOP picks up a majority in the State Senate in '11 you can get we'll see a Paycheck Protection bill. That will make what's happening in Wisconsin seem like childs play.

Even with the Senate drawing their own map I wouldn't put the odds of Dems keeping their majority at better that 5-4. Without a Dem drawn protection map it would be exremely difficult, evn with a fairly drawn court map.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 14:00:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Working On This

First observation: It's more or less impossible to make VA-10 a McCain district without giving VA-01 and/or VA-07 a much larger chunk of Northern Virginia than either would be willing to accept. The present district runs way out into the Shenandoah area and the 2010 population distribution in the area makes that much more difficult.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 14:50:13 PM UTC

VA redistricting

Well...it wouldn't necessarily have to become a "McCain" district for the Republicans to strengthen it.  Obama won the district 53-46 in 2008, but Bush won in 2004 by 55-44.  Obama may be hard pressed to repeat his 2008 performance and comparing just a district's 2008 voting record may not be the best determination of it's leanings.  

I was able to draw the most Republican-friendly redistricting I could think of.  The difference between my map and Wasserman's is that I get creative with VA-03.  I made it as Dem heavy as possible by adding Dem areas of Richmond, Norfolk, Hampton, and Petersburg, and dropping Republican areas of Newport News City, James City, and New Kent.  The result was an 80-20 Obama district and is about the only way Republicans would be able to strengthen the districts they say they will strengthen.  Approximate CPVIs:

VA-01: R+7
VA-02: R+7
VA-03: D+26
VA-04: R+6
VA-05: R+8
VA-06: R+12
VA-07: R+10
VA-08: D+15
VA-09: R+11
VA-10: R+4
VA-11: D+6

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by: elucas730 @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 15:25:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More on NoVA

Strengthen, sure.

I'm using both numbers as strength indicators, but I think that 2008 number is more indicative of where things will stand later on in the decade than the 2004 numbers.  

But what I found interesting is that the only I could keep Winchester, Frederick, and Clarke into VA-10 is to do something like put Manassas in VA-01, which I doubt is happening. You can do a Manassas-to-Newport News district and have it come out about the same as the current VA-01 PVI-wise, but it's kind of unwieldy and the GOP can't feel especially safe there.

But if I leave the Manassas area in VA-10, even making sure to remove anything blue in Fairfax County, I still get 51.9% Obama for VA-10. I do get 52.9% Republican by whatever the other number measures, which is probably stronger than the status quo.

Another interesting quirk is that in trying to maximize Democrats for both VA-08 and VA-11 and running VA-08 along the river towards Reston accidentally results in a minority-majority VA-11.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 16:12:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll give it a go

The only significant addition to the politico article is that Petersburg is put in the 3rd, the 11th takes some very dem bits of Loudon, and the 7th loses some of the parts of Chesterfield county to the 4th that are most rapidly blueing (Dems would resist all of these, Reps would try to enact all, we'll see what happens)

Quick write up below with Obama/McCain, Avg Dem/Rep, Wht/Blk/Hispanic/Asian (VAP) (numbers rounded)

1st: 48/52, 44/56, 70/16/9/3
2nd: 49/51, 46/54, 67/20/6/5
3rd: 77/23, 72/28, 35/55/5/2
4th: 48/52, 46/54, 62/31/4/2
5th: 46/54, 45/55, 75/18/3/2
6th: 44/56, 43/58, 84/10/4/2
7th: 45/55, 42/58, 74/17/4/4
8th: 67/33, 65/35, 57/11/17/12
9th: 39/61, 43/57, 91/6/2/1
10th: 49/51, 45/55, 72/6/8/12
11th: 62/38, 57/43, 52/14/16/16 (majority minority if including those under 18)

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

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by: okiedem @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:36:33 PM UTC

No VRA Districts

Has anyone tried to do a Virginia Congressional Map without voting rights districts.  It would certainly not be an 8/3 map.  One of the reasons DC is so disfunctional is that with VRA's, it results in more hard left districts and hard right districts and those people build up seniority in their safe districts.  Without VRA's, there would be fewer extremists in both parties and more might get accomplished.  Ironically, the GOP would probably unite with minority groups to fight getting rid of VRA's.  Of course, someday, when the nation is majority hispanic, will the whites then want their own VRA's?  Blacks, whites, latinos, and others will of course continue to intermarry, so what will it all come down to, using the ethnicity of our last names to determine legislative districts?  It gets ridiculous and just keeps us all separate.  Of course, keeping us all separate is what the elites want anyway.  Let the little people fight while the top 1% controls the majority of our wealth.  (I am a Democrat, just for the sake of clarity)

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by: gerard @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:45:52 PM UTC

There is no doubt that if you do a

compact map without VA3 you get a very different looking map with new seats

VA3  -Richmond, Henrico, balance from Chesterfield.  Almost certainly a D seat might not be an AA seat but a D seat

VA2 Virginia Beach & Norfolk-balance from Northampton-Accomdack- Tossup

VA4 Suffolk-Cheakespeak-Portsmouth plus Southside VA-tossup to lean D

VA1  Newsport News, Hampton city, York county plus tidewater counties is classic tossup to lean D

If you dismantled the current VA3 you might turn three seats D and keep VA3 D.  In a fair map.  

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by: rdelbov @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 20:17:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

VA is 1 state where I wish we could get rid of the VRA district

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 22:36:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's it

3 seats the D's could easily win in SE VA

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 01:01:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As to why I haven't drawn a map

well, a couple of reasons:

1) there isn't much room for creativity;

2) I've drawn lots of Virginia maps already, so I'm kind of Virginiaed out.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 19:50:56 PM UTC

Here we go

VA-01: 46.5 Obama/ 53.5 McCain, 43.6 Avg D/ 56.4 Avg R
VA-02: 48.0 Obama/ 52.0 McCain, 45.5 Avg D/ 54.5 Avg R
VA-03: 79.9 Obama/ 20.1 McCain, 74.5 Avg D/ 25.5 Avg R
VA-04: 49.1 Obama/ 50.9 McCain, 46.1 Avg D/ 53.9 Avg R
VA-05: 46.2 Obama/ 53.8 McCain, 46.2 Avg D/ 53.8 Avg R
VA-06: 43.4 Obama/ 56.6 McCain, 44.8 Avg D/ 55.2 Avg R
VA-07: 42.7 Obama/ 57.3 McCain, 40.1 Avg D/ 59.9 Avg R
VA-08: 66.6 Obama/ 33.4 McCain, 64.6 Avg D/ 33.4 Avg R
VA-09: 40.5 Obama/ 59.5 McCain, 43.8 Avg D/ 56.2 Avg R
VA-10: 49.1 Obama/ 50.9 McCain, 44.8 Avg D/ 55.2 Avg R
VA-11: 61.4 Obama/ 38.6 McCain, 56.5 Avg D/ 43.5 Avg R

Obviously the biggest change here is making VA-10 into a McCain district. Also, under this plan Eric Cantor would have the most Republican district in the state, as measured by the average D/R performances.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 20:29:53 PM UTC

I've been working on a VA State Senate map

It is quite the chore. However, so far I've only had to move one incumbent from his home district and I've managed to create three more Dem-leaning districts while attempting to make the 22 incumbents safer (and succeeding, for the most part). I'm almost finished and I hope to post it in a day or two. Problem is, I have two 20-page papers to write in the next couple weeks and this is certainly a distraction from that.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 22:59:41 PM UTC

Coincidentally

I just finished drawing a map of the VA state senate. I'll probably post it tommorow.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 23:43:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dave Wasserman tweets that Dems think DOJ might force 2nd majority-black VRA district......

Wasserman suggests a map that would screw Forbes if a 2nd majority-black district were created.

This would help us greatly short-term in Congressional redistricting, since the VRA seats both would have to be down south, not affecting NoVA.  NoVA still would have Moran and Connolly in great shape.  So we would gain a seat right away.

But would it blow up the deal to let state Senate Dems write their own map?

Ideally we'd want the remapping votes done and McDonnell signing off before the Congressional map goes to DOJ for review.  Then we could have our cake and eat it, too.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 23:36:29 PM UTC

I was glad to see that

If they're pushing a 2nd VRA district in Virginia, that means they are probably going to be relatively aggressive in VRA enforcement. The case for a new VRA district in South Carolina or multiple new ones in Texas is at least as strong as the case for a VRA district in Virginia. Of course, this is all just rumors and speculation now.

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 23:46:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the map must be signed by the Gov

before pre-clearance certification issues under section 5 begin.  Additionally, I'm not sure that the DOJ has the power to force another district, since they really can only look at retrogression.

A lawsuit under Section 2 by a voter or group of voters, on the other hand, could do that.  A better lawsuit for Dems would be an Equal Protection suit alleging that the 3rd packs black voters.  This would prevent a second VRA district from being locked in an allow more flexibility in redistricting in the future.

I'm frankly puzzled why Republicans don't seem to think this will be an issue.  I will predict that the map will be altered by the courts in some way.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 23:48:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Say, has Chuck Colson announced his retirement yet?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 23:43:49 PM UTC

Hahahaha

I think you mean Charles Colgan. Chuck Colson is an evangelist and former adviser to Nixon who went to jail over Watergate. State Senator Colgan, despite being Pro Temp and 84 years old, hasn't announced his retirement...yet. I'm sure he's waiting to see whether or not the new State Senate map gets accepted, allowing some younger pol to run for his seat, which will shrink markedly during redistricting. When I roughed out the current map on Dave's App before starting to redistrict, it had almost 300k people in it with the ideal being just above 200k. He almost retired eight years ago but Governor Warner talked him out of it. He ran for reelection again in '07 and won.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 00:36:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL, that was a funny mistake on my part.

So, it's possible to redraw his seat to be more favorable to Dems?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 00:49:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is on my map

Take large Republican-leaning chunks out of the northern part of Prince William County and you can have at least a leaning-Dem district. The way I drew it, his district takes in much of the middle of the county, Manassas, Manassas Park, and juts into Fairfax right next to Centreville to form a 56.7-43.3 Obama district. You can make it bluer by taking it into the eastern end of Prince William but I moved the VA-28 to run between there and Fredericksburg that will be 57% Obama. It draws out its incumbent but he has a new district to run in.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:00:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem is...

it's pretty likely that Del. Jackson Miller, a Republican from Manassas, is going to run for Colgan's seat. He's a former mayor of Manassas, so he's pretty popular there.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:02:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh really

I may redraw that then. Include Manassas in one of the Fairfax districts.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 02:07:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My submission

I used some info Taniel Tweeted about the plans for VA-02, VA-10, and VA-11 as a rough guide. Winged it on the others.

It's an incumbent protection map all the way. Reps. Rigell, Wolf, and Connolly are all made a bit safer here, as any compromise would do.

VA-01 (blue) - 47% Obama, 53% McCain - Rep. Rob Wittman (R)
VA-02 (green) - 49% Obama, 51% McCain - Rep. Scott Rigell (R)
VA-03 (purple) - 77% Obama, 23% McCain - Rep. Robert Scott (D)
VA-04 (red) - 48% Obama, 52% McCain - Rep. Randy Forbes (R)
VA-05 (yellow) - 44% Obama, 56% McCain - Rep. Robert Hurt (R)
VA-06 (teal) - 44% Obama, 56% McCain - Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R)
VA-07 (grey) - 45% Obama, 55% McCain - Rep. Eric Cantor (R)
VA-08 (slate blue) - 65% Obama, 35% McCain - Rep. Jim Moran (D)
VA-09 (cyan) - 40% Obama, 60% McCain - Rep. Morgan Griffith (R)
VA-10 (magenta) - 51% Obama, 49% McCain - Rep. Frank Wolf (R)
VA-11 (chartreuse) - 62% Obama, 38% McCain - Rep. Gerry Connolly (D)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:40:35 AM UTC

A couple more area views

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 05:41:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice but

you put Frank Wolf's part of Vienna in the 8th district

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

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by: M Riles @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 06:55:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Did I?

I wasn't sure where in Vienna he lives. If so, easily rectified; the actual map-drawers will be able to split precincts anyway, which the app doesn't allow for a number of reasons.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 08:02:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's actually not so easy

He lives in Colvin precinct. In order to get there, you would have to cross your 11th district. The best way to reach it is by going through Great Falls.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 14:10:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not so tough

This redraw should put everyone where they belong. New numbers:

VA-08 (slate blue) - 66% Obama, 34% McCain
VA-10 (magenta) - 51% Obama, 49% McCain
VA-11 (chartreuse) - 62% Obama, 38% McCain

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 22:37:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And a new statewide view

Not much different, I suppose, but just for documentation.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 22:40:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He can move

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by: emilysdad @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 15:24:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

stunning map

great job

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 14:16:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]