SSP Daily Digest: 3/10

CA-Sen: We can probably rule out another Senate run by Chuck DeVore: he’s setting his sights lower… much, much lower. Chuck D is, in fact, forming an exploratory committee for Orange County’s Third District Board of Supervisors. An exploratory committee!

Somewhat related, yet another chart from Greg Giroux: The most recent Gov, Sen, and Pres numbers by CD in California, as well as key demographics highlights from the new census data.

MA-Sen: And yet another Greg Giroux special. (If you’re not following this guy on Twitter, you are using Twitter wrong.) Alan Khazei (D) has formed a 527 exploratory committee “for a potential run for public office.” I’m not exactly clear, though, on why it’s a 527 rather than a normal FEC exploratory committee.

MD-Sen: Remember when Dick Cheney ran the Republican operation to choose a vice presidential candidate in 2000… and picked himself? GOPer Eric Wargotz has managed to come up with an even more pathetic form of self-love: He’s created his own “Draft Eric Wargotz” page on Facebook. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, he was 26-point roadkill for Barbara Mikulski last cycle, but now he wants the public to rapturously embrace a run against Maryland’s other Democratic senator, Ben Cardin. (By the way, this is my favorite comment so far.)

ME-Sen: I meant to mention this in yesterday’s post on PPP’s poll, but in any event, state House Minority Leader Emily Cain (D), all of thirty years old and already on the verge of being term-limited out, isn’t ruling out a run against Olympia Snowe, but says it probably won’t happen. Even though she’s just barely eligible to run under the constitution, she’d has a bitchin’ campaign theme song just waiting to get rocked out.

MO-Sen: I had a feeling things might wind up moving in this direction. Jan. 27:

However, the offices of Republican Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer and Todd Akin told Roll Call that the Congressmen are not interested in running for the Senate.

Feb. 26:

“Some people want to draft me for Senate but you know engineers. It’s just one thing at a time,” said Akin, an engineer.

Mar. 9:

“I haven’t discounted it,” [Akin] told The Ballot Box on Tuesday night. “Some things you sort of put on your problem shelf and you know you’re going to deal with it at some time. It’s just one of those things that I’ve got to work through.

Todd Akin can’t resist the siren song of the Senate race – not with the field of damaged Republican B-listers gathering on the misty plains of Missouri. Just one question: Is “problem shelf” common engineer-speak, or is Akin just a special brand of dweeb?

As for this, it seems like classic Politico ginned-up b.s. So Claire McCaskill spends less taxpayer money on air travel than Kit Bond or Jim Talent, but because Politico makes a big deal out of her using a plane she co-owns with a group of investors, it becomes campaign fodder. Hopefully, with McCaskill saying she’ll reimburse Treasury for the costs, this’ll be a one-day story, unless Politico decides this move makes her look “guilty” (of what, I don’t know).

NV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Berkley says she’s doing some polling right now and is still on track to make a decision in late spring/early summer. (I guess that’s somewhere between May 1 and August 1.) Berkley also reports that she’s been in contact with all the members of the B Team – Secretary of State Ross Miller, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and State Treasurer Kate Marshall – and: “They all said the exact same thing, ‘We’re waiting on you, we love you and then we’ll make our decision.'”

OH-Sen: Usually I ignore politicians when they comment on races – most of what they say is clueless or canned. But I love Ted Strickland, and you’ll love his incredulous reaction when he was asked what he thought of the possibility of GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown. Said Teddy Ballgame: “Give me a break, that is laughable. I don’t think that would be a contest at all.” And he went on from there – click through for the rest. (Incidentally, I came across this amusing tidbit thanks to the Google: Back in 2006, when running for state Rep., Mandel refused to say whether he was supporting Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell – or, yeah, Ted Strickland.)

WI-Sen: This is just so mega-weird I won’t bother trying to summarize:

When questioned about his reelection plans by National Journal Tuesday, 76-year-old Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) asked, “Am I running?” He then shrugged, wordlessly. Kohl then asked “are you are a reporter?” Told “yes,” he walked away without a word.

In response to further media inquiries, an undoubtedly groaning staffer said that Kohl “will announce his decision later this year” as to whether he’ll run again. What worries me the most, honestly, is DSCC chair Patty Murray’s response to questions about Wisconsin’s very senior senator: “Herb’s just great.” Really, this is the kind of thing a committee leader needs to be on top of. There are ways to evade questions (“I know Herb is still making up his mind”), and then there are ways to just look evasive – and this is the latter.

WV-Sen: Yep, like I said, long two years.

CT-Gov, CT-Sen: Quinnipiac has approvals for Gov. Dan Malloy (35-40), Sen. Joe Lieberman (38-45), Sen. Richard Blumenthal (49-25), Barack Obama (49-47). That last number in particular seems rather low to me. I wonder what Quinnipiac’s sample composition is… but they ain’t sharin’.

ME-Gov: A Republican state senator proposed a state constitutional amendment which would institute gubernatorial run-offs if no candidate got a majority of the vote on election day (something that has happened in four of the the last five gov races). The bill would have a high hurdle to become law, though – two-thirds of the legislature would have to vote for it, and it would also have to go before voters.

NJ-01: Rep. Rob Andrews, as though dipped in the cranberry bogs of the Pine Barrens, has renewed his soul and emerged as that unlikeliest of legislators: a Nancy Pelosi ally. Andrews was best known for dodgy behavior and fratricidal tendencies, but a period in the wilderness after his humiliation at the hands of Frank Lautenberg has apparently turned him into a better man. Read the article for the complete picture.

NM-01: Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who gave up her House seat in a failed bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination last year, says she’s forming an exploratory committee to look at a challenge to Rep. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich is considering a run for Senate (something Arnold-Jones was also looking at), so she may have an opportunity for an open-seat run if that happens. Arnold-Jones staged an abortive bid for this seat the last time it was open, in 2008.

NY-26: Good news! We finally have a date for the special election to replace ex-Rep. Chris Lee: May 24th. Even better news! Democrats are finally getting their act together and will be interviewing short-listed candidates this week and next. Those names: Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul; Amherst town council member Mark Manna; former Amherst Town supervisor Satish Mohan; and Some Dudes Robert Stall, Martin Minemier, Jane Bauch, and Diana Voit. Meanwhile, teabagger David Bellavia says he’s still considering petitioning his way on to the ballot as an independent, but the clock is fast running down.

Wisconsin Recall: So the Republicans running the rump of the Wisconsin state Senate managed to pass (or think they’ve passed) their union-busting measures without the need for a quorum. (Read the link for the full procedural run-down.) The lone no vote was Dale Schultz, who isn’t elligible for recall this year but does sit in one of the two-bluest districts held by a Republican, according to SSP’s now-seminal analysis.

NY-St. Sen: The frogs get marched out one by one, hurrah, hurrah! The frogs get marched out one by one, hurrah – hurrah! Scumdog state Sen. Carl Kruger (D, sadly) just turned himself in to the FBI on corruption charges. Among Kruger’s many sins, he threatened to caucus with the Republicans in after the Democrats won back the chamber for the first time in generations back in 2008. He also voted against the gay marriage bill that came up late in 2009. Unfortunately, Kruger holds the second-reddest seat in the entire state (amazingly enough, though, it’s 45% Obama, thanks to the GOP’s awesome gerrymander). If he steps down, it’ll be an exceptionally difficult hold, though, since Dems control very few seats where Obama did worse than 60%.

Maps: The Atlantic has a cool interactive map featuring the “12 States of America” – the US, broken up at the county level into varying socio-economic groupings (with cutesy names, of course).

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso is now contributing special election results wrap-ups:

In Arkansas HD-24, Republican Bruce Cozart emerged victorious by a 60-40 margin. Tennessee’s SD-18 was no surprise, with a 2-1 margin for Republican Kerry Roberts. In California’s AD-04, the lone Democrat, Dennis Campanale, made it into first place, albeit with only around 32%, and will face Republican Beth Gaines, who squeaked past fellow Republican John Allard by a 1% margin (22.5 to 21.5), in the May runoff. [The first CA race to feature a run-off under the new top-two system. – David]

Also, a quick shout-out to the newest member of the Tennessee House (HD-98), Democrat Antonio “2 Shay” Parkinson, and the newest member of the Virginia House of Delegates (HD-91), Republican Gordon Helsel, both of whom were unopposed on Tuesday.

State Leges: Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine has an interesting look at various proposals in several states to shrink the sizes of their respective legislatures. However, if history is any guide, most of these won’t go anywhere.

Redistricting Roundup:

New Jersey: Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, has put together a couple of proposed legislative maps, one that he calls a “constitutional” map, the other, a “competitive” map.

Virginia: This seems like a pretty good deal, if you ask me:

Senate Majority Leader Richard “Dick” Saslaw said on a Northern Virginia radio show the other day that he had reached a “gentleman’s agreement” with Republican leaders in the House on how to go about redistricting the state….

“I’m not gonna interfere with the lines the House draws for the House,” he said. “And they’re not gonna interfere with the lines I draw for the Senate.”

Dems hold the Senate, and the GOP holds the House and the governor’s mansion, so I’ll take it.

Wisconsin: Aaron Blake has another good entry in his redistricting series, though the bottom line is that even though Republicans control the process, they don’t have a great deal of ability to improve life for themselves. One thought that I had: If the recall effort in the WI Senate is successful, then Dems could suddenly give themselves a seat at the redistricting table where they had none before. Verrry interesting.

170 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 3/10”

  1. By “star,” of course, I mean movie star Tommy Lee Jones. I can only imagine the whisper campaign about how he was Gay Liberal Environmentalist Communist Al Gore’s roommate as liberal elitist Harvard in MASSACHUSETTS that will happen if he’s the candidate.

    I continue to be amazed at the supposed need for celebrities as candidates. I have no problem with them running for an office, but again, is it necessary to draft someone like this? As bad as the Democrats have performed in the state in the last decade or so, they still have quite a few people that could run, and those are only legislators. As people like Ron Johnson and Rand Paul have shown, it’s entirely possible to come from the private sector and still win.

    I also think a candidate is less important, as a name, than people think. If there’s some ambitious young Democrat in the state that has a good profile, perhaps the best answer is to fund his or her campaign as part of a process of taking it as seriously as all of the others. Despite not investing much of anything in the 2008 campaign against an incumbent, Democrats didn’t perform all that badly with Rick Noriega as their candidate.

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/

  2. That she would announce by July, after she initially said she would tell by Passover/Easter. I just have a hard time seeing the DSCC wait that long in limbo. The Reid Machine has the greatest respect for Shelley, but they don’t.

    Despite what Patty Murray says in public about NV-Sen or WI-Sen, I have no doubts she’s working behind the scenes to get candidates on board ASAP.

    (Maybe that’s what she really meant when she said, “Herb’s just great”?)

  3. In 2010, Democrats had a 7 point edge over Independents and, in 2008, a 7 point edge over Republicans. My hunch is Obama’s approval is more in the 53% range there, though, if it is below 50% in Connecticut, I’d be very intrigued to see his approval in states like New Jersey and Maine (which should be coming from PPP today).

  4. Has only had a gubernatorial candidate win more the 50% of the vote once since 1982, and that was 1998, Independent Angus King’s reelection. Runoffs seem like a good idea, since the strong independent streak seems to let Republicans win too often by splitting the center-left vote.

  5. The TNDP did not even put out a press release to garner financial or logistical support for the Democratic candidate until the very last minute. I mean the state party is supposed to at least pretend their candidates are credible and that they take every race some what seriously. The outlook isn’t looking very good for 2012 with this type of approach.  

  6. That State House should EVENTUALLY get narrower to the Dems just by eventual demographic changes no matter how the GOP draws the map (VA House is something like 38-40 Dems now out of 100, correct?) We got a 2 seat majority in the state Senate that could be drawn as a secure 4 seat majority, I think. Let’s see what they do with the US House now . . .

  7. A few things I’ve noticed over the last few days:

    1. Zell Miller might play a role in Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign as a co-chair. This makes sense, I guess. Is there a better representation of the old, cranky white male trying to preserve the last vestiges of what he feels is his right to power than Zell Miller, a Democrat basically in name only?

    I’m actually all for this. After all, is there anything our political debate needs more than continued involvement with those who feel it’s appropriate to throw out veiled accusations of treason at their opponents simply for disagreeing, particularly from a guy who chooses to associate with a party that questions the citizenship of our current president?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

    2. Huckabee might be running. Is there any other reason for him to try to revive the death panel bullshit by connecting the evil, socialistic stimulus package with the health care reform bill, in addition to questioning Obama’s American-ness, whatever that is?

    I have no doubt that this crap might endear him to the base, but I’m not sure why those Independents that are giving him a lead in states like Missouri will stick with him once he starts acting more and more like Sarah Palin, which of course he has already started to do. I could be wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his appeal as a fairly reasonable, levelheaded guy (at least judging by his demeanor) absolutely plummet once he started running. If that’s the case, then states like Missouri would probably shift in Obama’s favor fairly easily.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

    3. Chris Christie is more talk and bluster than results, and he has a problem stating things accurately. I can’t fault all politicians for simplifying matters somewhat so that details get lost, but it’s an entirely different matter to be wrong so frequently, especially when the source of your appeal is straight talking about a critical state issue.

    I was not particularly worried about his potential candidacy before this article came about and am even less worried now. Nothing in here is bad enough to end his career, not by a long shot, but when magnified during a national campaign, it could seriously wound him. Perhaps it wouldn’t matter to the base, which continues to believe things in spite of the evidence, but it’s the sort of thing that damages his appeal to the middle. It could also energize the base of opposition even more than it is now.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03

  8. LG John Martinez to run for GOP nomination for the US Senate.

    Shocking to me, I really thought Governor Martinez would convince him to stay where he was or run for Heinrich’s open House seat. Either Wilson isn’t as close to Martinez as we had assumed (based on her heading the transition) or Sanchez doesn’t care what Martinez thinks.

    IMO Sanchez would be the better candidate, but this screams out repeat of the ’08 primary fiasco.  

  9. This is a slow moving story that I didn't notice until today (from a link on Political Wire, no less!). Conservative Indiana blogger Paul Ogden came out with a post Tuesday that dug into Dick Lugar's voting registration, and appears to have found a very big problem with the senator's paperwork.

    As is generally known, Lugar hasn't actually lived in this state for a while, and only owns a farm in Marion County that he doesn't spend a lot of time at. When he comes back to the state from DC, Lugar generally stays in a hotel in Indy. Most folks had assumed Lugar was at least registered to vote from his farm, however, Ogden seems to have proven that Lugar is registered to vote from a home in Indianapolis that he hasn't owned (or lived at) in decades. Why this is a problem is readily apparent.

    To be clear, this isn't really a question of residency, which thus far has been the counter from Lugar's camp. Ogden isn't putting Lugar's residency into question at all, he's accusing him of voter fraud. (Apparently, voting from incorrect addresses is the popular thing to do among Hoosier politicians).

    Ogden, assuming he's got his facts straight, has done some impressive work here. I don't know how much play this will get in the state and national media; most political reporters and bloggers here are much more focused on the missing House Dems and the big protests in Indy today than they are on anything else. 

  10. Just kidding!

    For all those on the edge of your seats awaiting Tim Kaine’s decision about the senate race, he’ll be torturing you just a little bit longer. While there was speculation that he would announce his decision at an event honoring Rick Boucher, that’s not the case.

    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes

    I’m not particularly worried about this. The need for him make a decision quickly is pretty low, at least right now. Still, it’d be nice to know sooner rather than later.

    I’m starting to wonder if Patty Murray is holding the release of a bunch of good news–Tim Kaine running in Virginia, Phil Bresden jumping into the race in Tennessee, and an announced candidate in North Dakota and/or Texas, for instance–for one week, or even possibly one day. Is there any other reason than fund raising that she might do this?  

  11. “Asked if he’d back Obama’s reelection bid, Manchin wouldn’t answer directly.

    ‘Whoever the president is, I support. That’s my president. Democrat, Republican, George Bush, Obama, and every American should take that approach,’ Manchin told POLITICO in the Capitol. ‘Now can you respectfully disagree? Absolutely.’

    Asked again if he would vote for Obama, Manchin said: ‘I support this country, whoever the president is, that’s who I support.'”

    Good times. Good times.

  12. Slightly off topic, but man, he picks some strange battles:


    At a hearing of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on Thursday, Mr. Paul lambasted Kathleen Hogan, deputy assistant secretary for energy efficiency at the Energy Department, telling her that the department’s “hypocrisy” and “busybody nature” has “restricted choices” for consumers rather than made life better for them.

    “You don’t care about the consumer really,” Mr. Paul said. “Frankly, my toilets don’t work in my house, and I blame you.”

    A few paragraphs later:

    He said that department standards on energy-efficient refrigerators and toilets, for example, don’t work. “We don’t even save any money,” Mr. Paul said. “We have to flush the toilet 10 times before it works.”

    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes

  13. What’s their timing?  Who decides when they occur?

    And what about the special elections that follow them?

    This would determine whether we have to net knock out six or three of them.

  14. http://www.reuters.com/article

    * Wisconsin (we already know about this)

    * Ohio (how do things work here?)

    * Idaho (do we have a chance here?)

    * Iowa (we control the state senate, so this is good)

    * Michigan (how do things work here?  They narrowly control the state house IIRC.)

    * Indiana (state house Dems currently denying quorum)

    * Kansas (do we have a chance here?)

    * Tennessee (how do things work here?)

    * Colorado (we have the governorship here so this is probably good?)

    * Nebraska (how do things work here?)

    * Nevada (we control the state assembly, so this is good)

    * Oklahoma (do we have a chance here?)

    * New Mexico (we control both state house and state senate, so this is good)

    * Washington (we have the trifecta here)

    * Alaska (hopefully the coalition of ten Dems and 6 Repubs will be able to prevent funny things from happening in the state senate?)

    * Arizona (how do things work here?)

    For those states where I’ve asked how things work, or whether we have a chance, we need to start looking very seriously into quorum-denial and other constitutional procedural actions.

  15. Why else would he meet with the with the leader of the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC, Jerry DeLemus and his wife, Susan DeLemus, who is a recently-elected New Hampshire state Representative? What a clown.

    This is the sort of shit, by the way, that the Democrats better be ready to bludgeon the Republicans with. It’s as if several prominent Democrats (and not outsiders, but actual elected officials) kept alluding to the fact that Bush was a cocaine addict in 2004 but never received push back for it–something we all know would have been impossible. If they decide to not distance themselves from this nonsense forcefully, make them own it, and watch the carnage.

    http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath

  16. http://www.jsonline.com/news/s

    From a poll for the other side

    Those findings come from a statewide poll of 603 adults taken Feb. 27 through Tuesday for a conservative think tank that has surveyed regularly in the state, the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

    Note the increase in “Very Favorable” and “Very Unfavorable” for both sides.

  17. The recently-indicted Charlie White is facing a second investigation of his activities, this time by the Indiana Inspector General's office. The accusation here is that White, after being sworn in as Secretary of State in January, used his newfound authority to 'improperly access' a large report compiling the results of an investigation of the White voter fraud affair that  was ordered by previous SoS Todd Rokita.  

    I think I mentioned Rokita's investigation once or twice on SSP before last year's election; at the time, I regarded it with scorn, as Rokita's office refused to release any details of their findings until after the election, and then not at all. The whole thing stank of cronyism to me, and the mysterious 'report' was used to justify allowing White to take office despite the allegations against him.

    The contents and conclusions of Rokita's investigation remain unknown, although it appears that information therein may have played a role in White's indictment last week. 

  18. Wargotz…hehe…that’s funny. I suppose he did a little better than the average MD-Sen GOP hopeful, but I would attribute that much more to 2010 than to anything specific to Wargotz.

    Most of the talk here is about tomorrow’s Marriage Equality vote. it’s coming down to the wire. Relying on my amateur vote counting skills I see 68 likely Yes votes (all D), 57 likely No votes (all 43 Republicans, plus 14 Democrats), and 14 Wild Cards (all Dems.) 71 is the magic number.

  19. Even on your dKos postings?

    On the DK4 software upgrade, the tag usage has been much upgraded with the ability to follow tags in one’s Stream. I hope you’re not just being lazy.

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