Another New York State Senator is probably going to jail

http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

He was one of the Senators that helped screw up the Democrats' newly-won majority in the Senate by initially refusing to back Malcolm Smith. He's also anti-gay marriage. Good riddance to him.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 13:27:57 PM UTC

And now I see it's in the digest, so never mind.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 13:40:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, but..

Republicans have 32-30 majority in state Senate right now. If they flip Kruger's seat (obviously - not impossible task) - it will be 33-29. And that may create additional problems for Democrats during redistricting.

In addition: new Republican state Senator will, most likely, be anti-gay marriage too. And even if Democrats hold a seat - it can't be ruled out either: this is a decidedly non-social-liberal area if i remember correctly..

---

by: smoltchanov @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 13:41:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The guy who seems likeliest to be the Democratic candidate

Assemblyman Alec Brook-Krasny, voted for gay marriage. He's from Russia, and apparently the district has a large Russian population.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 13:43:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting

But you probably know - i am born in Russia myself. I wouldn't say thar people from Russia in NYC are, in majority, very liberal - many of them are fiercely anti-socialist, because of their Russian experience. And gay rights are about as popular in Russia as blacks were in Eugene "Bull" Connor's eyes..

---

by: smoltchanov @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:41:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Russia

I would have never guess you were from Russia with a username like that ;)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

---

by: Zornorph @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:39:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another reason to hope

that the NY State maps end up in the hands of a Special Master.

---

by: andgarden @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 13:53:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The are no Republican elected officials in Kruger's SD

All elected officials in Kruger's Senate district are Democrats. There are no GOP Assemblyman or Councilman in the district who could try and move up.

So in all likelyhood the Special Election would pit a Democrat elected official against a largely unknown GOP businessman or community leader.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:35:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You beat me to my response.

I do not understand the second reddist comment as it implies a Republican takeover of NY27 yet as you noted every single NY State Assembly and NYC Councilmember residing in that district are Democratic. They all range from Liberal to Moderates as well and all seem to the left of the incumbent so let Karl enjoy sing sing!

---

by: politics64 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:03:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's "Red" In Terms of Obama vs. McCain

But there's not a lot of local Republican bench or much support for downballot Republicans there. I am not an expert on Brooklyn but who would the GOP run there? Whoever it is would probably start with a big disadvantage in terms of stature and name recognition vs. whoever the Dem candidate would be in an election there. Not that that can't be overcome, but usually the elections have a short cycle.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 22:37:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That doesn't mean that that businessman

or coomunity leader can't win in such district, doesn't it? Probably a lot will depend on a "quality" of this Democratic elected official))

---

by: smoltchanov @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:51:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Assemblyman William F. Boyland Jr (D) is also expected to face federal charges

Boyland comes for a big NYC political family. His Dad and Uncle were long time Assemblymen, his sister was on the NYC Council and ran for Congress agains Rep Owens in 2004.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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---

by: izengabe @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:10:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boyland has a safe (for Democrats) district AFAIK..

---

by: smoltchanov @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:52:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But it could effect members of the Boyland family

who might run for Congress against Owens if there were a vacancy there.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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---

by: izengabe @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:23:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's a nice write up,

My State Senator was Arrested Today, by someone on dKos with tons of links covering that story and background.
Including this fun factoid:

With Kruger's arrest, Ruben Diaz, Sr. remains the only member of the Gang of Four not indicted on federal corruption charges.

and including this fun speculation:

What everyone is really waiting for, though, is to see if Kruger rolls and becomes a government witness.

---

by: homerun @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 23:49:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democratic Star to Texas Senate Race?

By "star," of course, I mean movie star Tommy Lee Jones. I can only imagine the whisper campaign about how he was Gay Liberal Environmentalist Communist Al Gore's roommate as liberal elitist Harvard in MASSACHUSETTS that will happen if he's the candidate.

I continue to be amazed at the supposed need for celebrities as candidates. I have no problem with them running for an office, but again, is it necessary to draft someone like this? As bad as the Democrats have performed in the state in the last decade or so, they still have quite a few people that could run, and those are only legislators. As people like Ron Johnson and Rand Paul have shown, it's entirely possible to come from the private sector and still win.

I also think a candidate is less important, as a name, than people think. If there's some ambitious young Democrat in the state that has a good profile, perhaps the best answer is to fund his or her campaign as part of a process of taking it as seriously as all of the others. Despite not investing much of anything in the 2008 campaign against an incumbent, Democrats didn't perform all that badly with Rick Noriega as their candidate.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 14:34:53 PM UTC

Grr...*at Harvard

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 14:35:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's just an attempted draft movement

It's got about as much of a chance as a draft of Mark White for Senate.

---

by: tietack @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:31:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course.

It's just amazing to me that people waste their time with this when, despite being very down, the Texas Democratic party isn't out.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:12:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Guess who was at our Stonewall...

Mixer last night.

Someone who wants to be Las Vegas' next Mayor, and someone who might want to be my Congressperson (again).

It's never a dull moment here. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 14:49:51 PM UTC

Shelley Berkley has said before...

That she would announce by July, after she initially said she would tell by Passover/Easter. I just have a hard time seeing the DSCC wait that long in limbo. The Reid Machine has the greatest respect for Shelley, but they don't.

Despite what Patty Murray says in public about NV-Sen or WI-Sen, I have no doubts she's working behind the scenes to get candidates on board ASAP.

(Maybe that's what she really meant when she said, "Herb's just great"?)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 14:56:05 PM UTC

If Harry Reid tells Patty Murray to wait

on Shelley's decision,

I suspect Patty will wait.

(My guess, Shelley's poll testing different messages, and won't announce until she finds one or more that works well against Heller.)

---

by: tietack @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:08:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I think you're right...

About Harry telling Patty to wait, and about Shelley testing various lines against Dean Heller.

It's just that the signals being sent from the DSCC to here suggest they want a candidate to rally around, and they want one soon. (And again, it seems like they're not too excited about Shelley running.)

I wonder what happens if Shelley's poll results tell an entirely different story from the DSCC's.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:30:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wait, has Kohl announced

he's not running? Or is it just looking more and more likely?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:13:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tea Leaf Readers in Uberspin Mode

Just like everyone jumped the gun by assuming a loan to his campaign committee was tantamount to a reelection announcement, now some are taking some bizarre comments to National Journal as a sign that he's not necessarily running.

I've said it before and still believe it, Kohl will decide on his own terms and on his own timeline, the $1M loan means nothing and his refusal to formally announce means nothing. He'll let us know when he's good and ready and there isn't a damned thing anyone, including Patty Murray or Harry Reid, can do or say that will make him do something he doesn't want to, or say it before he's ready.

Ultimate case of every just chill out and wait, you're just going to give yourself a headache.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:21:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:37:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He hasn't announced...

Isn't that the point of all the consternation?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:56:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Re-read the WI-Sen bullet point

In today's digest.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:28:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As stupid

as this might sound, I thought something might have happened in the time between the posting of the Daily Digest and the post I was responding to. Things can happen quickly, no?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:43:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No worries

Hard to keep track of everything! I make mistakes myself all the time. We're only human.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 14, 2011 at 05:14:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

question

Why won't the WI GOP hurry through a redistricting plan before the recalls?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:11:06 PM UTC

They can probably try (eom)

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:05:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have heard

that if they pass new maps before the recalls, then the recall sigs and elections would all be based on the new districts.  This could of course mess up the signature gathering if they have to be gathered in each district.  Could anyone verify this?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:22:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sort of...

Once the new map is passed into law those are the districts that would be used for a recall election, there is no grandfathering of districts unless the law creating the new map specifically assigns an implementatin date (which this obviously would not).

Recall petitions would not have to start over, but they would have to verify (or be able to verify under challenge) that all the requisite signature came from the appropriate new district.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:33:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Emergency Legislation

I do not know about WI, but most states have a policy where legislation does not go into effect for 90 days after passage unless it is passed as emergency legislation which requires a two-thirds vote. Thats why the deadline for say, Mississippi passing a map is the first week of June, since otherwise it will not go into effect by November.

Courts have taken a very dim view of changing districts after deadlines, re-opening registration deadlines and invalidating maps, but most of these are state precedents(MA, MS, LA) so who knows if they will apply in Wisconsin.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:37:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They could, but trying to game the system may not do much of them politically

In this situation, I'm sure the recall campaigns would just use it as ammunition and may be successful in doing that even in redrawn districts.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:28:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

never a good idea

to admit that you drew a map to move your opponent to another district:

http://majorityinms.com/2011/0...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:12:36 PM UTC

Re: Quinnipiac's CT-Sen #s, it looks like they're playing with only about a D+3-ish model

In 2010, Democrats had a 7 point edge over Independents and, in 2008, a 7 point edge over Republicans. My hunch is Obama's approval is more in the 53% range there, though, if it is below 50% in Connecticut, I'd be very intrigued to see his approval in states like New Jersey and Maine (which should be coming from PPP today).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:22:14 PM UTC

Q-poll had some bad polls last year in CT, so I have doubts about them now......

They joined a couple robopollers in showing a tight race for Blumenthal at times, when the Blumenthal campaign and DSCC kept saying, and releasing numbers to show, their internals had Blumenthal up double-digits the whole time.  Of course these disagreements are always confusing in real time, but in hindsight I think the internals were right all along, as it made no sense to think there would've been momentum for McMahon at the times the public polling claimed, plus internals as a rule are better than public polls--although what's released for internal numbers isn't always honest.

So I take Q-poll with a grain of salt in CT now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:31:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

November gone

Obama was at 54% in the CT exit poll. He is in a better position now nationally than he was then.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:35:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maine

Has only had a gubernatorial candidate win more the 50% of the vote once since 1982, and that was 1998, Independent Angus King's reelection. Runoffs seem like a good idea, since the strong independent streak seems to let Republicans win too often by splitting the center-left vote.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

---

by: HoosierD42 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:32:12 PM UTC

Tennessee Senate 18 - TNDP basically conceded race out of the gate

The TNDP did not even put out a press release to garner financial or logistical support for the Democratic candidate until the very last minute. I mean the state party is supposed to at least pretend their candidates are credible and that they take every race some what seriously. The outlook isn't looking very good for 2012 with this type of approach.  

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 15:39:06 PM UTC

Is not doing much of anything

that uncommon? I have no frame of reference, so I am curious, if a victory were as hopeless as it seems based on previous results, is it really a surprise? Do Republicans usually do what you describe with candidates running for House seats in New York City, where even in a bad year the Democrats usually get at least 80 percent of the vote?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:15:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

These districts, like S18, are not nearly that Republican

Many of those suburban districts around Nashville lean Republican, but they aren't as overwhelmingly so as the results would seem to indicate. We had a credible candidate, Mayor Ken Wilbur (Portland, TN), who could have at least made the Republican work and garnered a respectable vote tally for the Democratic column. The results in many of these districts are lopsided not so much because they are so dominated by Republican voters, but the calibre of campaigns and ground operations pale in comparison to what Republicans run. If the TNDP does not take credible candidates seriously with resources and staffing, why should voters. It all comes down the state party apparatus.

If we cede the suburbs to the Republicans then we Tennessee Democrats will be a permanent minority. These areas are where a new majority will have to be built (with educated, middle class voters), because the mountain to climb in order to retake the rural areas in this state is a much steeper and unrealistic task.

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:57:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair enough.

I trust what you have to say, and if you are right, then what the party did was inexcusable. I keep repeating myself, but still, it's incredible that so many rely on the same ineffective, tired tactics. Our side has shown a willingness to run different types of candidates in order to win in different areas, so it's not like we are being rejected solely because of our views.

I realize it's easy for me to say this here, but I think it's still valid: some elections are better than others to try to do special things and try new tactics to gain votes, and this looked like one of them. It's hard to do when resources are divided, but this year, when only a few states have legislative races, why can't the Democrats try a different approach, particularly in areas where there's not that much to lose? And why not try to take the races seriously, even if you end up losing, as a way to gin up spirit amongst the party faithful and to keep fund raising activity high? Hell, maybe, just maybe, a few seats will cone our way.

Call me a dreamer for saying this, but I'm waiting on law school decisions, and there's a decent chance I might not go if I don't get into a school I want to go to. At this point, I might not go at all, since I was supposed to be in it this year but got a shitty financial aid package last spring. If that's the case, I will need to figure out something else to do. I've considered a few things, one of which was trying to work for a state Democratic party where there's enough activity and resources to work with, even if the party is down. (Think perhaps Texas or Tennessee, not Wyoming.) It'd be interesting to see how these decisions are made and it'd be pretty damn cool to influence the decisions, even at a very small level, that could be used as an example for future races.

Anyway, here's to hoping that something, somehow, changes so that Tennessee Democrats get their act together.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:10:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Working for a Democratic Party

Whatever state you might choose to go try to work in politically, I would recommend find one you like and whose political/social culture understand. If you do that, and become a expert on the state and its issues inside and out, then you will much better positioned for success. Law School though is a much sounder bet, as political careers are tough to succeed in, even if you're good. Often in political careers advancement is determined with who you are aligned with and who is doing the hiring, instead of how good or qualified you are. Plus, starting out you will have to to work for free, or little to nothing, to earn enough cred to get higher paying opportunities. If working in politics is truly your ambition it is worth the risk, otherwise more education is the way to go.

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:12:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I figured as much.

Honestly, if I took that route, it'd be while doing something else along with it. Building a brewery sounds pretty cool. All I need is a few million dollars and the ability to make beer. Then I'll be set.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:15:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SD18

was designed back in 2001 to be one of those seats that could go D.  Robertson county has been a backbone of democratic votes forever.  

The suburbs have changed and now Robertson county looks alot like Sumner & Wilson county.

I think the GOP guy is even from Robertson county.

Just a quick guess on some TN state senate moves come 2012.

1. Shelby will be down to 5 seats.  We are at 5 1/2 right now.  The population does not justify more then 5.  One GOP seat will almost certainly be Collierville, Lakeland, Arlington, Millington -part Bartett and some of Cordova.  Then the other will be Germantown East Memphis.  The other three seats will likely be AA with Marrero  and Kyle getting short straws.

2. I think Doug Henry South Davidson county seat will become a GOP sinkhole as it loses its strong D precincts and becomes sort of U shape.  It will keep all of the Belle Meade -southern precincts but will sort of lose its inner areas and become a Davidson perimeter seat on its east and west side.

I see it as a major question what the GOP does with Herron's seat.  They can slice in half and try to do a new seat in west TN with the leftovers from rural part of 32.  Or they can do use it for a D sinkhole seat and  plug all the D rural area in it. That's my current thinking.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:31:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with your assessment of how redistricting could go

I hate to see Kyle and Marrero get redistricted into tough new districts with parts of their core constituencies stripped away, but one or either might survive in new districts, as Memphis voters have indicated they are willing to vote outside of racial lines (ex. Congressman Cohen). If they are replaced we better hope for politicians of the calibre of with Senator Reginald Tate, or Representatives John DeBerry and Larry Miller - because if we get another John or Ophelia Ford type it will do irreparable damage to the image of the party.

I think Henry might well be done as well, but is surely in his last term anyway. Herron is most definitely done no matter what district he gets, as people in NWTN are tired of him as an ineffectual long-term incumbent. He was soundly rejected in his current Senate district during last year congressional race, with even his home county voting against him.  

Democrat: TN-8

---

by: wtndem @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:53:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good Deal on VA

That State House should EVENTUALLY get narrower to the Dems just by eventual demographic changes no matter how the GOP draws the map (VA House is something like 38-40 Dems now out of 100, correct?) We got a 2 seat majority in the state Senate that could be drawn as a secure 4 seat majority, I think. Let's see what they do with the US House now . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:33:24 PM UTC

39 Dems out of 100

I agree that it is a good deal. I've seen diaries with 23-25 lean Democratic seats.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:37:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Zell Miller and More!

A few things I've noticed over the last few days:

1. Zell Miller might play a role in Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign as a co-chair. This makes sense, I guess. Is there a better representation of the old, cranky white male trying to preserve the last vestiges of what he feels is his right to power than Zell Miller, a Democrat basically in name only?

I'm actually all for this. After all, is there anything our political debate needs more than continued involvement with those who feel it's appropriate to throw out veiled accusations of treason at their opponents simply for disagreeing, particularly from a guy who chooses to associate with a party that questions the citizenship of our current president?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

2. Huckabee might be running. Is there any other reason for him to try to revive the death panel bullshit by connecting the evil, socialistic stimulus package with the health care reform bill, in addition to questioning Obama's American-ness, whatever that is?

I have no doubt that this crap might endear him to the base, but I'm not sure why those Independents that are giving him a lead in states like Missouri will stick with him once he starts acting more and more like Sarah Palin, which of course he has already started to do. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his appeal as a fairly reasonable, levelheaded guy (at least judging by his demeanor) absolutely plummet once he started running. If that's the case, then states like Missouri would probably shift in Obama's favor fairly easily.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

3. Chris Christie is more talk and bluster than results, and he has a problem stating things accurately. I can't fault all politicians for simplifying matters somewhat so that details get lost, but it's an entirely different matter to be wrong so frequently, especially when the source of your appeal is straight talking about a critical state issue.

I was not particularly worried about his potential candidacy before this article came about and am even less worried now. Nothing in here is bad enough to end his career, not by a long shot, but when magnified during a national campaign, it could seriously wound him. Perhaps it wouldn't matter to the base, which continues to believe things in spite of the evidence, but it's the sort of thing that damages his appeal to the middle. It could also energize the base of opposition even more than it is now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:36:50 PM UTC

I'm

surprised Zell Miller hasn't flipped his registration to Republican yet. Since you know what's been happening the last two years has to be driving his dixiecrat roots nuts.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:43:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, we don't have party registration in Georgia.

We should, but we don't.  Your overall point is taken, though.  Why he still identifies with the Democratic Party is beyond me.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:49:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He doesn't actually "identify with the Democratic Party"

He simply finds that it is a label that gets him more attention than he would get if he formally switched parties. He gets to play the disaffected Democrat, gives minimal bi-partisan cover to the right wing causes and candidates he supports, and every now and then get some attention.

If he became an actual Republican, do you think that Newt Gingrich would have him co-chair his campaign committee? Once he formally switches, he losses all interest as a novelty act.

---

by: terje @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 23:58:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why would he?

As a Republican, he's another angry white southerner that thinks bad things about Obama and other Democrats. But if he's a Democrat, he's able to push the "I'm a Democrat, but not one of the godless, gay communist ones!" or the "I didn't leave the party; it left me!" crap to his professional and financial advantage.

What I find really incredible, though, is that he seemed to actually like Clinton during 2004. I could be remembering this incorrectly, but he seemed to have nice things to say about Clinton even as he was bashing Kerry. Now, while Clinton may not be liberal enough for all Democrats, he's not a Republican. I'm not sure how you can group Bush, Clinton, and Gingrich together without tiring immediately from the mental gymnastics.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:51:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He doesn't actually have dixiecrat roots.

I remember reading that he was actually a reasonably non-regressive Democrat until one extremely close race scared the crap out of him and he started going reactionary with a vengeance.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:14:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He was pretty good in the 1992 Democratic convention.

We can't all be born rich, handsome, and lucky. And that's why we have a Democratic Party.

That's still one of my favorite quotes.

http://mypolitikal.com/

---

by: Inoljt @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 22:08:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Zell Miller's a decent surrogate, I guess

I suppose he can go into New Hampshire and try to make Gingrich's case to Independents who might fall for Miller's "I'm a Democrat who's willing to (always) reach across the aisle" schtick. Still, he's kinda as washed-up as Gingrich...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:05:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would New Hampshire Independents

really fall for that crap? I suspect I might make a more effective advocate for Gingrich in that state than Miller would.

I would think his role, if anything, would be to fire up the crowds in certain parts of particular states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:10:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No they won't fall for that crap, b/c they've never heard of Zell Miller & don't care about him......

A guy who over a decade ago was the Governor of a state 1000 miles away is not going to be effective even in retail settings.  Only campaign junkies, not even all political junkies let alone average primary voters, perk up at his name or face.

The value of people like Zell jumping on board is entirely in playing to the media.  If you're getting "endorsements," they get reported, and reporters themselves are inclined to take you more seriously.  A real celebrity supporter also can generate local coverage.  Tom Harkin had Robert Redford campaigning with him across Iowa in 1984, and of course lots of people show up at the rallies and small-town local media report heavily on it, all because "Robert Redford came to our fair little town!"  They're not influenced by Redford's support of Harkin, they don't care about that, but Harkin, too, is there, so he gets to persuade the audience himself when they otherwise might not be paying attention.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:38:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or, if they have heard of Zell Miller...

It's probably nothing good (being endorsed by the guy who (seriously) challenged someone to a duel on live television doesn't sound all that appealing to me...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:46:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It would be highly amusing

to see Zell Miller on television making the same sort of remarks he made in 2004, only crazier and in an angrier manner. Not that Gingrich would win anyway, but it'd be interesting to see how many more votes Miller would toss to Obama because of his ridiculous, Nancy Pfotenhauer-like commentary. I could actually see the Gingrich campaign being dumb enough to allow it to go on for a while.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:07:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WI-State Sen.: Poll shows majority support of recall of 2 GOP Sen.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

These were taken in Kapanke's and Hopper's districts.

Congratulations, WI GOP, WI is now a lost cause for Republicans for another generation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:48:22 PM UTC

Also:

The poll was taken yesterday, before last night's events, and fifty-six percent of voters in Kapanke's district, and 54% of voters in Hopper's district, said if their Senator voted for Walker's plan, it would make them more likely to vote for someone else. Last night, both Senators did vote for Walker's rollback of bargaining rights.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:51:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't go that far.

Depending on how this plays out, it could easily mean good things for Democrats at all levels in the state for the next few cycles. But a generation? It's far too easy for Republicans (not the ones in power now, but different ones) to try to reverse course, apologize, pay the price for a few elections, and then regain power. Voters have short memories, and while this is likely to have big ramifications, I'm not sure it'll be a central issue in 2020.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 16:58:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah

Walkerism may not have much of a future in WI, but the Reeps may have some success by running pragmatic Tommy Thompson types.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:30:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course.

If depends on if these recall efforts are successful and/or they're able to carry this momentum in 2012 and win back the St. Senate. And if Walker is unable to recover from this and they win back the Governor's mansion in 2014 that opportunity to turn WI blue will be as good as its ever been. That's a lot of ifs and I'm generally reticent to say that you can, relatively, quickly turn a purple state blue or red because while there is historical precedent for it today's voters IMO have much shorter attention spans and are much more fickle.

Having said that, there were a lot of Republicans in Wisconsin that said 2010 was going to turn WI red for a generation. An attractive young governor who had huge majorities in the state assembly and a solid majority in the state senate at his disposal. Now the governor turns out to have the political instincts of a gnat and his ratings are in the toilet and the best thing you can say about his political future is that, assuming he doesn't get recalled in 2013, he's not up for re-election for more than 3.5 years

---

by: safi @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:42:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But, remember that they are disenfranchising voters...

...both with a super restrictive Voter ID law and by killing off the unions which offer support to Democrats.  They certainly COULD make it red for a generation if they jerryrig the rules enough.

---

by: LordMike @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:01:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The voter ID law

Could have a huge effect because WI Dems benefit greatly from Wisconsin's same day registration laws because of college students who leave home. I think, atleast in the short term, the union presence won't dissipate because they're highly energized, and now angry, because of this fight.

---

by: safi @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:08:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The left overstates the obstacles these things cause......

It's part of messaging to scream disenfranchisement because these restrictive laws really are bad policy, and they really do make it harder to vote, but ultimately the obstacles they cause are surmountable and in fact we've proven that.

Remember Indiana had voter ID in place for 2008, and Obama got his masses of new voters still counted and carried the state.

It's extra work, it's a pain in the ass, but these things can be overcome if we lose on the legislative side and they get implemented.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:41:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course it can be overcome

But I think, especially in the short term when a lot of low information first voters are unfamiliar that a new law has been implemented, it could have a potentially huge impact.

---

by: safi @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:16:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

First-time voters are the least susceptible to problems from a law change......

First-timers don't have a frame of reference for what they have to do step-by-step, so they're more likely to figure it out and get it right the first time than someone who is used to voting and assumes everything is always the same--then unprepared for a change.

I'm all in favor of fighting these disenfranchisement initiatives by Republicans, they are bad policy and they obviously are for the purpose of reducing Democratic vote share.

But the flip side is that these things are getting done in quite a few places, and we have to be at least as prepared to educate regular and new voters alike on what they have to do to vote.

I mentioned Indiana as an example, but I'm in Virginia where voter ID predated (I don't know by how much) my moving here in 2008, and again, Obama managed to win here in spite of it, a first for a Democrat in my lifetime.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 03:39:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The issue I see

With that is the very real possibility that those low information college students have parents who are the same. If the people inside your circle are unaware of the law change, they'll just assume that everything is the same.

---

by: safi @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:26:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If there's

one thing that's keeping me positive about this, it's that Obama's team has shown a great ability to plan ahead for elections. It's not a secret that Republicans have wanted to do this for years, if they haven't in fact done it already. I'd be astonished if this wasn't a continuously talked about issue in the White House political office and in the emerging campaign offices.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:12:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Remind me,

when would a recall election of the governor occur, if possible?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:07:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its one year

Not two years. My bad. A WI official must be in office for atleast a year before a recall effort can be done. There are 8 state senators, on both sides, who are currently eligible to be recalled.

---

by: safi @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:13:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So, 2012

would be the year Walker would be recalled? Would the election take place in November?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:16:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's something like 60 days after

the signatures are filed.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:20:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So the Democrats

could try to schedule the elections at the same time?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:26:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

I believe the law says that the recall election must occur within eight weeks of the petitions being filed. So if there is an election, it would probably be around this time next year.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:24:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would

imagine the fervor over what's happening to be slightly less helpful for Democrats than if it were held in November of 2012.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:27:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm slightly

Confused by your post. Is the 'it' referring to a potential recall election of Gov. Walker? If it is I agree and disagree. I'd agree that it would be less helpful for Democrats nationally. Having the recall election in Nov. 2012, if the discontent with Walker doesn't dissipate President Obama could tap into that discontent and come away with a relatively easy victory and maybe we pick off a couple of House seats as well.

As far as the objective of the recall, recalling Gov. Walker, the sooner we can have the electionm the better. In a perfect world, we'd have it tomorrow. I also think a special election in early-mid March is going to be a battle of who can best turn out there base and I like our chances in that.

---

by: safi @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:59:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I meant

that it'd be better for Democrats nationally if we had the election in 2012, but that was assuming that the intensity kept up until then. It probably wouldn't, so it is probably better to have the recall election take place sooner rather than later. We'd have, as you said, a better chance of winning, and we'd still carry over some of the passion to the elections in November of 2012. Maybe not as much, but it's not likely to be different enough to matter. Plus, the Obama campaign will be doing its own turnout, and when Sarah Palin or Gingrich waltzes in and talks about something insane, they'll help drive turnout, too.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:11:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And we have villains to fight.

Scott Walker is just the beginning.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:15:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A little OT but I'm wondering

Why does everyone here seem so pessimistic about our chances in the House of Representatives in 2012? I mean "a couple of House seats"? Is it just because of gerrymandering that everyone's so cynical? 2010 was a bad year for us, and Democrats will do much better next year with presidential year turnout, particularly if Obama is winning by a huge margin at the top of the ticket (which everyone seems to think he will). Why isn't anyone talking about 20, 30 seat gains? That seems more than in the realm of possibility to me, but maybe that's just because I've only really been following horserace politics since 2006, so I've only ever seen huge congressional turnover.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

---

by: xcave @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:10:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My own view is that if Obama wins

It'll be because the economy has improved and voters will see it has being because of the parties splitting the government. Dems should certainly win some seats back but it looks a tall order even without redistricting implications.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:15:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Personally I'm just not bothering to look at House races

At least not until redistricting is finished in most states. I think the general consensus is that there will be a net Dem gain, just because of the 2010 R wave inevitably receding, but I don't really think it's worth going into specific seats until we have a better idea what the game board looks like.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:22:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree

Far too many variables right now.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:24:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know you said its OT

But I think you read too much into that comment. I was talking strictly about Wisconsin and if Dems flip 2 GOP house seats it'll be a great reason to celebrate. The current delegation is 3-5 and getting it to 5-3 is probably the best, realistically, they can hope for. If Paul Ryan decides to run for senate, IMV highly unlikely, or ends up on the presidential ticket, or hopefully it never comes to this ends up as a cabinet member of a Republican WH then that seat is winnable as well. But assuming all 8 run again, beating Duffy and Ribble is probably the best case scenario.

---

by: safi @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:25:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NM-Sen

LG John Martinez to run for GOP nomination for the US Senate.

Shocking to me, I really thought Governor Martinez would convince him to stay where he was or run for Heinrich's open House seat. Either Wilson isn't as close to Martinez as we had assumed (based on her heading the transition) or Sanchez doesn't care what Martinez thinks.

IMO Sanchez would be the better candidate, but this screams out repeat of the '08 primary fiasco.  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:19:41 PM UTC

Do you have a link? (eom)

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:30:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Link

Here is the original from Roll Call

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

Politico & RRH also have it up.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:38:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Link

Only it's John Sanchez, not Martinez.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:43:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NM-Sen

I think it's actually a good move for the GOP.  I am not at all thrilled with the idea of Wilson as the nominee - I think Sanchez can actually be stronger.  I do hope that the primary isn't brutal, but I can see Sanchez coming out a win stronger.  I wouldn't be shocked to find that Martinez has pushed him to run.
And this leaves no room for Steve Pearce, so he stays in the house and the GOP holds his seat.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

---

by: Zornorph @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:45:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-Sen: Dick Lugar has a voting problem

This is a slow moving story that I didn't notice until today (from a link on Political Wire, no less!). Conservative Indiana blogger Paul Ogden came out with a post Tuesday that dug into Dick Lugar's voting registration, and appears to have found a very big problem with the senator's paperwork.

As is generally known, Lugar hasn't actually lived in this state for a while, and only owns a farm in Marion County that he doesn't spend a lot of time at. When he comes back to the state from DC, Lugar generally stays in a hotel in Indy. Most folks had assumed Lugar was at least registered to vote from his farm, however, Ogden seems to have proven that Lugar is registered to vote from a home in Indianapolis that he hasn't owned (or lived at) in decades. Why this is a problem is readily apparent.

To be clear, this isn't really a question of residency, which thus far has been the counter from Lugar's camp. Ogden isn't putting Lugar's residency into question at all, he's accusing him of voter fraud. (Apparently, voting from incorrect addresses is the popular thing to do among Hoosier politicians).

Ogden, assuming he's got his facts straight, has done some impressive work here. I don't know how much play this will get in the state and national media; most political reporters and bloggers here are much more focused on the missing House Dems and the big protests in Indy today than they are on anything else. 

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:22:37 PM UTC

There are farms in Marion County?

Isn't that the county that is almost entirely Indianapolis?  Where do you put farms in Indianapolis?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:37:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The suburban sprawl hasn't taken over the whole county yet

To be honest I don't know what qualifies as a "farm" to Lugar's staff, though.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:42:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The flower bed in front of the house makes it a farm!

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:53:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or it's a Jon Runyan thing

And he's got a couple of goats nibbling around out on the lawn.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:55:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or sheep.

I hope it's sheep so the teabaggers will create another ad like this:

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:06:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dammit! It didn't post.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2wgHwYC-ZE

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:07:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I canvassed in Beech Grove, IN in 2008

in Marion County. on the way there we passed by a handful of farms, most with Jon Elrod signs (Repub candidate for IN-07).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:19:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would this be a problem

more with the base or with the population in general? I imagine the base is looking for any sort of reason to go after him, but perhaps there is much of anything to this. Lugar clearly isn't an awful criminal, so even if he's done something technically wrong (which, of course, is still bad, but let's not equate this with bribery or something), I'm not sure it'll matter that much in the grand scheme of things.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:48:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's more of a legal issue than anything, but it certainly won't be helpful in the primary

One of the main strikes against Lugar with the Tea Party folks here is that he's not a 'real' Hoosier anymore, that is, he's a DC guy who comes back here every few years to make sure he keeps his job, and things like this or the Virginia residence do play into that narrative.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:54:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tim Kaine to announce his decision.

Just kidding!

For all those on the edge of your seats awaiting Tim Kaine's decision about the senate race, he'll be torturing you just a little bit longer. While there was speculation that he would announce his decision at an event honoring Rick Boucher, that's not the case.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

I'm not particularly worried about this. The need for him make a decision quickly is pretty low, at least right now. Still, it'd be nice to know sooner rather than later.

I'm starting to wonder if Patty Murray is holding the release of a bunch of good news--Tim Kaine running in Virginia, Phil Bresden jumping into the race in Tennessee, and an announced candidate in North Dakota and/or Texas, for instance--for one week, or even possibly one day. Is there any other reason than fund raising that she might do this?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 17:59:47 PM UTC

Cillizza thinks the longer it goes

The more likely he is to run.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

I dunno, it all seems like guesswork to me. Like with Kohl, we will know when we know.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:50:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I anxiously await his December 2012 announcement of his plans to run

---

by: Nichlemn @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 03:35:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So he waits to see who wins, then votes by mail?

"Asked if he'd back Obama's reelection bid, Manchin wouldn't answer directly.

'Whoever the president is, I support. That's my president. Democrat, Republican, George Bush, Obama, and every American should take that approach,' Manchin told POLITICO in the Capitol. 'Now can you respectfully disagree? Absolutely.'

Asked again if he would vote for Obama, Manchin said: 'I support this country, whoever the president is, that's who I support.'"

Good times. Good times.

---

by: wt @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:01:42 PM UTC

Straight talk only when it suits I guess

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:39:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pretty damn stupid.

He already won in a very bad year for Democrats by a damn comfortable margin. The anti-Obama vote, I think, is already baked into the cake, so there's probably not too much damage that can be done by simply saying that he'd vote for the president.

I just don't get why it's impossible for people like him to say, "I plan on voting for Obama because he's doing a good job. I am a Democrat, after all. We agree on lot of things, but disagree on a few issues. I plan to support him when he's right and try to convince him otherwise when I feel he's wrong. I know I, as a senator from West Virginia, can help him do even better than he's doing now...." or something like that.

Basically, he can be independent from the party while still being verbally loyal to it. That's what McCaskill has done in Missouri, or so I think.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:48:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree, he should just give an honest answer......

It's either yes, no, or undecided.  Just say one of the three, Joe, you know which one it is.  There's less of a political cost in taking your lumps from one side or the other than in being too cute by half.

And if you're really not sure how you'll vote, "undecided" is perfectly fine.  Yes Dems will be pissed off, but your answer as-is already accomplished that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:47:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Proof that Ron Paul is full of shit?

Slightly off topic, but man, he picks some strange battles:

At a hearing of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on Thursday, Mr. Paul lambasted Kathleen Hogan, deputy assistant secretary for energy efficiency at the Energy Department, telling her that the department's "hypocrisy" and "busybody nature" has "restricted choices" for consumers rather than made life better for them.
"You don't care about the consumer really," Mr. Paul said. "Frankly, my toilets don't work in my house, and I blame you."

A few paragraphs later:

He said that department standards on energy-efficient refrigerators and toilets, for example, don't work. "We don't even save any money," Mr. Paul said. "We have to flush the toilet 10 times before it works."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:05:46 PM UTC

"Full of shit"

It took me a minute, but that's a pretty good one. Haha.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:08:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also, it's Rand Paul, not Ron

We're lucky they don't have the same number of letters in their first names, or they'd be even tougher to tell apart.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:09:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops, that's a stupid error.

Still, would it surprise you if this was Ron Raul?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:11:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, yes

I'm not a fan of either of them but from what I've seen Paul the Younger has a stronger tendency for this sort of weird belligerency than his dad does. Ron Paul talks about some strange things, but I'm not sure if he's ever hijacked a hearing about energy-efficient lightbulbs in order to rant about toilets and then call someone a hypocrite for possibly being pro choice on abortion but "anti-choice" about toilets.

I just realized that if Jack Conway had won last year I'd probably never have had to write such a ridiculous sounding comment. Fffff....

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:15:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Conway

didn't do that badly. Yes, he lost by a pretty big margin, but he didn't lose as badly as Chet Edwards or even Robin Carnahan, who was a much bigger deal in her state that Conway was, I am pretty sure. I wonder whether he would have lost by more if he were up against a more conventional Republican, however.

Anyway, I basically agree, although I try not to underestimate someone like Ron Paul from delving into something very myopic.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:23:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't have any doubt that Trey Grayson or Anne Northup or someone like that

Would have pulverized Conway just as badly as, say, Paul Hodes was by Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire.

Conway did shoot himself in the foot with the Aqua Buddha ad (Rand Paul is a magnet for ridiculousness, isn't he?), but I think he did as well as anyone could have expected from a Dem in a state like Kentucky and in a year like 2010.

But, he still fell short at the end of the day, and now we have six years of Rand Paul's radical "My Toilet Doesn't Work, Blame The Government" agenda.

We could wring so many more jokes out of this.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:31:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At the risk

of revealing myself to be a slobbering fool, I present this future candidate:

http://alison2011.com/

She might actually be the best looking female politician I've ever seen. And if she's like Conway--not exactly the stuff of a progressive's dreams, but pretty damn good for Kentucky--she could be an interesting candidate in the future. Taking on McConell in 2014 might be too much, as she'd still be new to the job if she won, but in 2020? I'd like to see her take Rand Paul down.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:38:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Finnally!

A whole website beyond the banner page.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:46:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Finally*

Damn.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:48:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Finn Hudson on the brain? ;)

n/t

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

---

by: HoosierD42 @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:35:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I got another one for you:

With his proposed auditing of the Fed, Ron Paul is trying to keep after what goes into your house (i.e. money).  With his questions about toilet policy, Rand Paul is trying to look after what goes, um, out of your house.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 18:13:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought Bunning left.

My bad! :P

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:34:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How would recall elections work?

What's their timing?  Who decides when they occur?

And what about the special elections that follow them?

This would determine whether we have to net knock out six or three of them.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 19:48:30 PM UTC

States considering union-busting legislation

http://www.reuters.com/article...

* Wisconsin (we already know about this)
* Ohio (how do things work here?)
* Idaho (do we have a chance here?)
* Iowa (we control the state senate, so this is good)
* Michigan (how do things work here?  They narrowly control the state house IIRC.)
* Indiana (state house Dems currently denying quorum)
* Kansas (do we have a chance here?)
* Tennessee (how do things work here?)
* Colorado (we have the governorship here so this is probably good?)
* Nebraska (how do things work here?)
* Nevada (we control the state assembly, so this is good)
* Oklahoma (do we have a chance here?)
* New Mexico (we control both state house and state senate, so this is good)
* Washington (we have the trifecta here)
* Alaska (hopefully the coalition of ten Dems and 6 Repubs will be able to prevent funny things from happening in the state senate?)
* Arizona (how do things work here?)

For those states where I've asked how things work, or whether we have a chance, we need to start looking very seriously into quorum-denial and other constitutional procedural actions.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:11:21 PM UTC

Who the hell is proposing this

in Washington and New Mexico?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:19:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nevada too

I would think we can safely strike all three from that list.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:21:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tim Pawlenty is running

Why else would he meet with the with the leader of the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC, Jerry DeLemus and his wife, Susan DeLemus, who is a recently-elected New Hampshire state Representative? What a clown.

This is the sort of shit, by the way, that the Democrats better be ready to bludgeon the Republicans with. It's as if several prominent Democrats (and not outsiders, but actual elected officials) kept alluding to the fact that Bush was a cocaine addict in 2004 but never received push back for it--something we all know would have been impossible. If they decide to not distance themselves from this nonsense forcefully, make them own it, and watch the carnage.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 20:23:41 PM UTC

MS

Bryant Senate map dead.

http://majorityinms.com/

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 21:39:46 PM UTC

WI-Gov: Poll on Walker and Teachers' Unions

http://www.jsonline.com/news/s...

From a poll for the other side

Those findings come from a statewide poll of 603 adults taken Feb. 27 through Tuesday for a conservative think tank that has surveyed regularly in the state, the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

Note the increase in "Very Favorable" and "Very Unfavorable" for both sides.

---

by: tietack @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 23:02:54 PM UTC

What's most striking to me is Team Blue has won over the swing voters......

The undecideds are down from a lot to almost nothing on both questions, and they've gone completely in our favor, i.e., favoring unions and disliking Walker.

And everything that's happened this week only makes things worse for them, and better for us.

Honestly, my worst fear in this had been that state Senate Dems, worn out from the long absence with the great toll it takes on their lives, would cut a deal giving away a good part of the store, getting some substantive concessions but not much else.  That, I feared, would give the GOP much of what it wanted, and kill the issue politically by virtue of our side's elected leadership having surrendered.  That basically sends the protestors home dejected, and no momentum going forward, with a gain only for Team Red.  In other words, cutting a deal settles the debate and makes the issue water under the bridge.

This works out better for us, because the issue stays alive in all parts, and we have a chance to reverse the law in its entirety down the road.  Reversing what Walker et al. have done will be a big part of the issue agenda, it's not a settled debate.  And "down the road" is sooner than we realize, given that there will be recall votes this year and next year, too.  I'll be shocked if they're not able to gather signatures for a recall of Walker when a recall legally qualifies next year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 03:49:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can you explain to me

why the heck the WI GOP did this after saying that stripping the bill could spark ill will?  What benefits do they think they'll reap?!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:26:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Someone at dKos explained it best, IMO

The situation for them was rapidly deteriorating.  They couldn't let the standoff continue, and (being Republicans) they couldn't give in or compromise, so they had only one other choice--escalate.

According to HotAir, they are hoping the anger dies down by the summer recalls.  I think they are living in a fantasy world if they believe that.  The oncoming budget battle is going to be just as fiery and nasty and that will continue for months.

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:52:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good, good, good.

I hope you are right.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:08:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope so, too...

Chris Bowers says that the process to recall could take as long as six months if it gets stretched out, and I'm sure the GOP will throw as many monkey wrenches into the process as possible.

Walker is a guy who likes to continually antagonize the electorate, and his buddy Fitz is just as bad if not worse.  I doubt he changes his persona anytime soon, and I guarantee a lot of controversial bills will be rammed through in the meantime with not a hint of resistance from the legislature.  The argument of "balanced government" could also be an effective message during the recall elections as well, IMO.

We'll see.  I don't think that the energy from our side will dissipate at all, but it's a question of the independents.  Hopefully, Walker has soured on so many people that he's permanently damaged his reputation with all of them.  Six months is a long time in politics.  It will be crucial to keep the pressure up!

BTW, Fitz said that the budget will be so contentious, that they might have to hold hearings at the Kohl center to accommodate all the protesters.  I think he was actually serious about it.  Something like that will certainly keep the energy up for the recalls.  

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:19:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I see a damned if you do, damned if you don't there.

If they shelved the most contentious parts of it, they would have rebuked the governor which could have started off a lot of inter-branch griping and dysfunction like there was with Sanford and the SC legislature.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:11:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

With Walker

The answer is simple. He wants to run for President, in 2016 probably. He knew that doing something like this would make him a national hero on the right. Only problem is he severely underestimated the pushback he'd get. The Senators, some of them didn't want to go against the head of there party and for many this legislation is popular in there district.

As far as the benefits its clear. The Republicans have won this battle but right now it looks like the chances are against them to win the war. If I were a betting man I'd say a year from now the senate will be in Democratic control and Tom Barrett is going to be the governor of the state. But if they can survive this, they'll have dealt a severe blow to the Democratic party of the state because public unions provide so much money and so many foot soldiers.

---

by: safi @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:56:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

safi, I think that

that this anti-union bill will not be well-enforced by a lot of counties and that lower courts may pass an injunction against it since they may have violated Open Meetings and that the bill may contain some budgetary aspects.

Also, how is organization going or the upcoming WI Supreme Court race?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:08:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

*going for, not "or"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:09:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know

A whole lot more than you do. I've got a few friends who work for some legislators, but mostly I'm reading and watching all the same stuff you are. Which is why most of my posts have been about the macro aspects of all of this which is where I think I can give a little more insight about this particular issue than the average person.

To answer your question though, as far as I know I think they're still weighing all the options. And I hate to look at this through too partisan a lens, but when the state senators mentioned bringing stuff to the AG's office I cringed a little. AG Van Hollen isn't just a Republican, unlike Tommy Thompson for instance who had integrity and an independent streak, he's a Republican hack not only is he a Republican hack he's an ambitous Republican hack. Even if its legally on our side, I'd be shocked if we can depend on him because it would essentially kill his career and even if its the right thing to do as you can see by my description of him, I don't think Van Hollen will be winning any profiles in courage awards anytime soon.

---

by: safi @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 08:39:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There are other

avenues besides A-G.  DA's are also what they are looking into.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 08:52:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was not bullish on the prospect of injunction...

But, I was reading the WI state constitution and to my non-lawyerly eyes, there seems to be a an open meetings requirement for a passed law to be enforced.  Usually, courts don't meddle with legislature rules and internal affairs, but the constitution seems pretty clear on this.  It seems from my interpretation that if a law is passed without following the open meetings rule, it is essentially null and void and cannot be enforced.

This supreme court election in a few weeks is going to be very pivotal.  It's going to require some good GOTV, since the campaigns are publicly financed (so people can't contribute), and it's "nonpartisan" which means no R or D designation after the candidates' names so people will have to be educated on a GOTV (non advertising) basis who is who and get out the vote.

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:32:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

While team blue is winning over (relatively) more undecideds

Both teams are significantly more "strongly approving" of their heroes,

-- making compromise more difficult
-- increasing the importance of the base, at least in WI
-- favoring less moderate options in both party primaries

While it should help --overall-- in WI, it may have different effects in other states.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:45:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem with reversing the law down the road...

...is that many unions may not survive until that point and the Dem party will be significantly weakened as a result which may prevent Dems ever reaching a majority again in this post Citizen United world.

A deal that preserved the unions would have been better in the long run regardless of the short term implications.

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 05:55:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What they can do now

is tie it up in court for the time being and build a case on how the laws and state constitution were violated.  On NPR, Sen. Glenn Grothman (R-Slob) himself said that there are fiscal aspects in this bill (which he walked back, realizing what he had just said).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:00:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The fiscal aspects of the bill...

...aren't going to get it purged.  That's what's called a "political question" which is short for, "the courts don't get involved in the process of the legislature" at least not typically.  It would take a pretty activist court to strike the law down on those grounds.  It's not impossible, but pretty unlikely.  The open meetings law is a better bet.

But, even if it gets tied up, they can just vote on the bill again.  They don't seem very averse to doing that at the moment.

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:04:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably.

But I think that this won't weaken unions as this has certainly energized them.  Also, Walker overreached as County Executive in bashing unions and got his round of firings reversed by a state court.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:17:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The laws have been changed now..

So, he can overreach as much as he wants now.

Certainly, there is a lot of energy with the unions... now.  That may not be the case in a few years.  This is a long game strategy, not a short one.  The goal is to defund and destabilize the Democratic party in the long term.

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:21:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not so

The law hasn't been signed yet.  And the law itself, once signed, may be deemed an overreach of its own.  There will likely be a long legal battle ahead on this as there are parts that conflict with the state constitution.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:24:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seriously

You're being too pessimistic.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:33:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also...

This only affects public employee workers' unions.  Now, if the WI GOP tries to target private employee workers' unions by passing a bill to make WI a "right-to-work" state, then it'll be the final nail in the coffin of the WI GOP for a generation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 07:02:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Finally

it attaches a dollar value to the adjustments in health care and pension contributions for public employees. How are those changes NOT budgetary in nature?  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 07:08:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read my comment about "political questions"

Quorum issues are handled by the legislature and courts are very reluctant to intervene in those kinds of issues.  

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 07:37:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-SoS: Todd Rokita's mysterious files

The recently-indicted Charlie White is facing a second investigation of his activities, this time by the Indiana Inspector General's office. The accusation here is that White, after being sworn in as Secretary of State in January, used his newfound authority to 'improperly access' a large report compiling the results of an investigation of the White voter fraud affair that  was ordered by previous SoS Todd Rokita.  

I think I mentioned Rokita's investigation once or twice on SSP before last year's election; at the time, I regarded it with scorn, as Rokita's office refused to release any details of their findings until after the election, and then not at all. The whole thing stank of cronyism to me, and the mysterious 'report' was used to justify allowing White to take office despite the allegations against him.

The contents and conclusions of Rokita's investigation remain unknown, although it appears that information therein may have played a role in White's indictment last week. 

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 23:06:17 PM UTC

Maryland

Wargotz...hehe...that's funny. I suppose he did a little better than the average MD-Sen GOP hopeful, but I would attribute that much more to 2010 than to anything specific to Wargotz.

Most of the talk here is about tomorrow's Marriage Equality vote. it's coming down to the wire. Relying on my amateur vote counting skills I see 68 likely Yes votes (all D), 57 likely No votes (all 43 Republicans, plus 14 Democrats), and 14 Wild Cards (all Dems.) 71 is the magic number.

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 23:31:26 PM UTC

do you know what time it will be?

I may stay up late tonight (14 hours ahead of MD) unless it's in the afternoon.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 06:27:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Final Debate

Scheduled for 11:00 AM Maryland time. (In case you or anyone else is still reading this.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 14:52:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

Guess I'll stay up a bit longer. hopefully they'll be quick about it. (maybe I'll just have to settle for finding out tomorrow morning)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 15:37:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Debate Happening Now

Probably not going to be quick.

So far no real surprises. I had everyone who's spoken so far as a clear Yes (Murphy, Pena-Melnyk, Mitchell) or No (Burns, all the GOPers) in advance


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 17:28:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

might as well just give up and be really anxious tomorrow morning.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 17:44:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So Far

Two amendments proposed.

Civil Unions Amendment offered by Del. Glenn (D- Baltimore City) fails. The bad news is that Glenn had previously voted against all four of the hostile amendments offered Wednesday so I had assumed she was on board. Her remarks on the floor suggest that she isn't.  

Earlier, an amedment by Del. Olszewski (D-Baltimore County) offering some protection for religious institutions failed. The interesting wrinkle here is that unlike the other people offering amendments he wanted the supporters to accept his amendment as friendly. I have Olszewski down as a wild card.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 18:11:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

so that was not cool...

can we get down to business to defeat the huns primary some DINOs in blue districts? like Emmett Burns.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 04:21:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As I said the last time this came up

it's probably not going to happen. Most of the opposition is either from more rural, conservative parts of the state or from heavily-black parts of PG County. Since most districts elect three representatives on a slate, it's really hard to successfully target and knock off one in a primary.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 12:24:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Baltimore City

Getting rid of Burns will be difficult as he represents a heavily black part of Baltimore County that in many ways resembles PG County. The good news is that the voting pattern of the other two delegates from District 10 seems more friendly.

The wrinkle with regards to Baltimore City is the "musical chairs" aspect of it with the redistricting. We're probably going to see lost seats and need to do everything in our power to make sure we keep the supporters and knock off the opponents. The unfortunate thing is that without a roll call we don't know for sure who the people in Baltimore to target necessarily are.

Cheryl Glenn (45th) is clearly hostile to our cause. Jill Carter's (41st) antics in committee nearly derailed it. Nathaniel Oaks (41st) and Frank Conaway (40th) voted for at least one of the hostile amendments. (Balance that with Carter and Conaway both voting in committee to advance the bill, which is better than they could have done.)

The clear allies are openly LGBT members Clippinger (46th), McIntosh (43rd), and Washington (43rd), as well as Keiffer Mitchell (44th), who spoke in favor of the measure on the floor. Curt Anderson (43rd) belongs in this category too. I feel pretty confident Sandy Rosenburg (41st) is on board as well.

Other than that, it's something of a mystery. No one else voted any for the early hostile floor amendments, but neither did Glenn.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 23:45:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So what happens come 2012?

Can they keep kicking the can down the road or will they have to stand up and openly admit their homophobia?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sun Mar 13, 2011 at 04:10:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

DavidNYC, why have you stopped creating detailed tags?

Even on your dKos postings?
On the DK4 software upgrade, the tag usage has been much upgraded with the ability to follow tags in one's Stream. I hope you're not just being lazy.

---

by: homerun @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 23:31:28 PM UTC

Attention redistricting nuts. A Chance to win....

..... a year's subscription to the Cook Political Report. Just draw an Iowa map that beats Dave Wasswermans.

http://twitter.com/#!/Redistrict

Redistrict Dave Wasserman
If you are my follower and can do better than a 92 person deviation, I will buy you a year's subscription to the Cook Political Report

His Map

http://twitpic.com/48a0g7

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

---

by: MinnesotaMike @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 00:10:55 AM UTC

Has anybody done it?

I've tried about 1,000 different combination. Closest I got was...93  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 07:00:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]