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KY-Gov, KY-AG: Poll Shows Leads for Beshear & Conway

by: DavidNYC

Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 5:30 PM EST


Braun Research for cn|2 (2/28-3/1, likely voters, Sept. 2010 in parens):

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 48 (44)
David Williams (R): 38 (38)
Undecided: 13 (15)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53 (49)
Phil Moffett: 28 (29)
Undecided: 17 (19)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53
Bobbie Holsclaw: 27
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Those trendlines are pretty ancient (more than half a year old), yet little seems to have changed since last September. These numbers look quite good for incumbent Dem Steve Beshear, and in fact aren't too far off from PPP's late October survey. One note of caution, though, is that Braun's Kentucky polls were fairly favorable to Dems last cycle; their final KY-Sen numbers showed Rand Paul up seven (he won by 11.5).

Braun didn't test the GOP primary, but state Senate President David Williams (running on a ticket with the perfectly named Ag. Comm'r Richie Farmer) is widely considered to be the frontrunner. In an internal poll from last month, Williams' ticket took 47% to just 9% for teabagging businessman Phil Moffett and 10% for Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, the only woman in the race. We haven't seen any other responsive internals which might contradict this one... though hope always springs eternal. Still, don't hold your breath for too long - the Hotline takes a long look at the many ways in which Moffett's candidacy differs from Paul's, and I'm inclined to agree with most of them. In particular, note that Paul himself says he won't endorse in the primary.

This poll also included a test of the Kentucky Attorney General's race, which gives us a good chance to check up on our old buddy Jack Conway:

Jack Conway (D-inc): 52
Todd P'Pool (R): 33
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Conway looks to have a very nice lead over Vulcan ambassador Hopkins County Attorney Todd P'Pool. P'Pool was more of a second choice after SoS Trey Grayson, who lost the 2010 GOP senate primary to (of course) Rand Paul), decided Harvard was a better fit for him than the Bluegrass State.

DavidNYC :: KY-Gov, KY-AG: Poll Shows Leads for Beshear & Conway
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Beshear seems to have avoided
The problems of other governors somehow. I note a plurality in the poll believe Kentucky is headed in the right direction. A competitive race to be sure but looks at this early state like a 53-47 kind of result favoring the incumbent.

Beshear: Mini-Mike Beebe!


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Not quite.
But he has been effective as party-builder there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
In what ways?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Clever appointments to get a D State Senate.
Hasn't worked yet, but he got close at one point.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The thing about Beshear
is that, unlike a Beebe or a Bredesen, he doesn't really have a unique personal appeal that transcends party. He's simply an old-fashioned conservative (put partisan) Democrat, the type that many folks here are still very willing to vote for.

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Beshear, unlike Bredesen, is associated as a Democrat, which is good for the party.The Kentucky Democratic Party is one of the more functional parties in the South; it at least has been able to maintain a capable statewide apparatus. It continues to be able to recruit capable candidates and stay competitive in most regards with the Kentucky Republican Party outside of its Congressional seats.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
To what extent ..
.. is that because the Kentucky Democratic Party has done things right that parties elsewhere in the South got wrong, or because Kentucky is socio-politically/culturally different?

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
Both doing things right and demographics
The KDP county affiliates are still run as actual functioning organizations, rather than social gatherings for a small number of activists and old-time establishment figures. I've seen rural counties continue to have party activities in operation down to the precinct level - something unseen in TN for example outside of the urban areas. This has kept more people (esp. young professionals) engaged in the party, thus the county parties are better organized, have better leadership, and recruit better candidates for office. New generations of capable Democrats as a consequence have been sustained in Kentucky and thus the reason why the KDP has a constant bench of credible candidates to run for legislative and statewide offices.

On the other hand, Kentucky has not seen the demographic change seen in other states, so the majority of voters still have the generational ties to the KDP - which has not been shaken due to the strongly conservative tilt of the party on social issues and populist economic platform. In addition, the relatively low African-American population, and its concentration in a few urban areas, has not allowed the racial issues to be as big of wedge issue to be used against the KDP as in other Southern states.

Democrat: TN-8


[ Parent ]
Yep, that about covers it.
Even in the small rural county where I live the local DP is fairly organized and not lacking in candidates. Dem registration is not falling off a cliff, even if may Dems here are conservative. That sort of local strength has kept the state party strong.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Kind of reminds me of the WV Dem Party
Still able to maintain the old coalitions (except at the Prez level), except unlike in KY, the WV Republican Party is a joke that only exists to worship at the altar of Barry Goldwater and the Moore family.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
If only he wasn't a conservadem
and took a lesson from Alan Grayson and Russ Feingold, he'd be winning by eleventy million points!!!

[ Parent ]
Just one question:
How the heck do you pronounce "P'Pool"?  "puh-POOL"?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

I
pronounce it "Pee-Pool"

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It's "Pee-Pool"
It's kind of funny, it's a somewhat common name around here, but most people are weirded out by it. I've known several P'Pools all my life, but I can definitely see how people who've never seen it would find it a really odd name.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Where does it come from?
I've been trying to puzzle that out for a while now. Which ethnic group would have a family name like "P'Pool"? Where does that fit in ethnolinguistically?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Pettypool is British.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Some members of the Pettypool line started spelling in P'Pool
It's not clear why, but it certainly looks amusing.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Since I said it about several US senate races
it might as well fit in this race.  How safe is an incumbent, with 100% name ID, who polls under 50% against foes with much lower name IDs.  A ten point lead is nice but I still think 48% is less then 50%.  

I don't think anybody thinks he is "safe"
Nate did some excellent work that pretty much destroyed the 50 percent rule as a myth.

[ Parent ]
I don't go by the 50% rule, in general, but
rather under 50% for an incumbent means you will draw interest, attention and money to your race.  You look at a state like VA where I suspect Warner-Allen 2014 would have Mark V at over 50% while Webb-Allen was competitive.  Its a guide for, as you said, that the race is not over.  

If the poll 8 months out was 55-34 then it might be time to move onto another race. 48-38 means its time to rumble.  


[ Parent ]
The 50% rule is questionable
Sometimes, a pollster doesn't "push" voters and so you get something likr 48-29. Now, is the incumbent who got 48 really in trouble? Absolutely not. The pollster might have just wanted to gin up controversy by showing the incumbent under 50%. Heck, even here the pollster could've pushed voters a little more and gotten over 50% for Beshear.

Now, since the separation between the two candidates is only 10%, I'd say that Beshear is favored, but it's not completely in the bag.


[ Parent ]
Not "safe" but close to it
when you're polling at 48%-49%, what it indicates is that the undecideds would have to almost totally break against you for you to lose...which, though possible, is not likely.

It's happened before, but it's not common.

It also means, any slip up and you're dead.  


[ Parent ]
About what I expected
Beshear's actually running a few points stronger than I would have guessed. His social conservatism and friendliness to coal are keeping him fairly popular across the spectrum, but the fact that David Williams is the best the GOP could drum up doesn't really hurt.

P'Pool looks like he's going to be the epic failure that I expected. His numbers could rise a bit if he gets his name out there, but he has basically no chance of winning.  

20, Democrat, KY-01


David Williams is the best?
I thought Richie Farmer was, but the party decided to push him aside for Beshear's mortal enemy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Well, Farmer is definitely better
but he didn't run on his own. He hitched his wagon to Williams. That was a huge mistake for him and the GOP, I think. Nobody serious emerged after the Williams/Farmer ticket was announced, and that was that.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Conway
Good to see Conway probably landing on his feet, but would have thought Aqua-Buddha would have haunted him here? I'd imagine P'Pool will be using it as an attack at some point.

I still don't think Aqua Buddha did him in
Conway was never winning that election.  

[ Parent ]
You're part right, in my view
Conway could never quite close the gap, and I agree he probably couldn't have won in the end given the climate. But he seemed to stay in range of Paul until Aqua Buddha, then his polling collapsed, if I remember rightly?

[ Parent ]
Conway couldn't get over the hump
He probably had a ceiling of 47% or so thus they threw the dice. Didn't work so he lost by a little more than he otherwise would.

[ Parent ]
yeah
but the two weren't really in sequence. His poll numbers were dropping days before aqua buddha. Basically people saw he couldn't close the gap, gave up on him.  

[ Parent ]
I think

that the Vulcan Embassy will be recalling Sub-Commander P'Pool after a loss of this magnitude.  

I'll show myself out.  


What the hell kind of name
is P'Pool?

It's a C'Cool name.
(nt)

[ Parent ]
It's a shortening of Pettypool
Pettypool is a British surname, but some descendents of English settlers shortened the name down to P'Pool for some reason.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Wish they polled
the other statewide office races.  Hoosierdem said that there may be a Dem sweep this year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I would like to know
who would be a stronger general election candidate for Secretary of State.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It's an interesting situation
Elaine Walker (the appointed incumbent) doesn't have any glaring flaws and I think she'd be an okay candidate, but Allison Lundergan Grimes seems to have all the state heavy hitters in her corner (other than Beshear, of course). I think they'd both be favored against Bill Johnson, though I guess if pressed I'd lean toward Grimes.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Is she like Jack Conway?
Would she have a long feature in Kentucky? She is pretty young and attractive which I'm sure helps.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I think she could be
That's the main reason I prefer Grimes- she's young, and I think she could have a bright future. It's impressive the way the establishment (most of it anyway) coalesced around her (though her father was a farmer KDP Chair). I definitely see some parallels with last year's Senate primary, with Walker being Mongiardo and Grimes Conway (although interestingly Dr. Dan is one of Grimes' main supporters).  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
She could run for the Senate in 2020.
If Mitch is still in the Senate. Or maybe a run against Rand Paul.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Why not 2014?
If she's going to run against Mitch, why not in 2014? Or perhaps Rand Paul is the better choice, if there's nobody else.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
She'd only be in office
for two years and would have to declare a run right after being elected.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
When is the primary
for the Democrats? Wouldn't she have been in office for at least a year at that point?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Oh duh!
I forgot the election was this year, oy vey. I guess it wouldn't be the worst idea, but she would still only be in office for a year to a year and a half before she would have to declare.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Well, whenever she runs,
it's nice to know there are Democrats to draw upon for candidates in states like Kentucky. I doubt she's liberal enough to satisfy some, but depending on how far to the left she is, she could be an intriguing national candidate. She's certainly young enough that she can slowly climb up the ladder if need be, and she's seriously attractive. She's better looking than most of the fermale candidates talked up for national office, and while I could just be talking for myself, I find her twang utterly charming.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
She is definitly attractive
which in our culture helps tremendously. I hope she becomes a powerful political player in Kentucky.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
*former
np

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
I can't find an age
for her, but she cannot be more than 40. If she is, she looks GREAT for her age.

Can you tell me more about her? It's nice to think that we have some solid candidates in the state for future races.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I would suggest that the Star Trek fight music be posted whenever Todd P'Pool comes up
but I looked on youtube and can't find a decent clip of it.


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