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KY-Gov: Beshear Starts Off With 9-Point Lead Over Williams

by: James L.

Thu Nov 11, 2010 at 2:22 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (10/28-30, likely voters):

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 44
David Williams (R): 35

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 45
Phil Moffett (R): 26
(MoE: ±3.1%)

Steve Beshear certainly is looking relatively healthy, especially compared to the shellacking that Jack Conway just received at the hands of Rand Paul. Of course, it's not really a given that state Senate Majority Leader David Williams will be the Republican nominee, but the man is definitely trying desperately not to get Trey Grayson'd. At a recent chat at the University of Kentucky Law School Federalist Society, Williams came out of the closet as a 17th-er. (Yes, he actually said that the biggest defect in American government is the fact that the law allows citizens to directly elect their own Senators.) Moreover, he openly compared himself to John F. Kennedy's "Ich bin ein Berliner" speech by stirring the crowd with an equally inspiring message for the 2010s: "I am a Tea Partier".

No, there's no end in sight for this nonsense.
James L. :: KY-Gov: Beshear Starts Off With 9-Point Lead Over Williams
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KY-Gov: Beshear Starts Off With 9-Point Lead Over Williams | 27 comments
I guess KY can still elect Dems...
At the state level.

I still can't believe Jack Conway imploded his own campaign in the last month like that.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

I dont think he necessarily imploded
He saw himself down by maybe 7% and he tried a hail mary to get himself a win but instead loss by 11% because of it.  A loss is a loss.
[ Parent ]
How much of his loss
is due to the environment and our side not showing up? If the exit polls are accurate, blacks made up 11 percent of voters in the state in 2008, but only 6 percent this year. That alone should be worth a few points.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Williams is an idiot
He's the worst kind of establishment guy and he excites exactly no one. Really, Richie Farmer (the Ag Commish and Williams' running mate) did Beshear a HUGE favor by hitching his wagon to Williams. I think Farmer would have been a huge threat if he'd run on his own (though I suppose there's a chance he may not have made it out of the primary).

20, Democrat, KY-01
Agreed, Beshear wants to face Williams
I believe Williams is way too "inside baseball" and has made way to many enemies as Senate President to beat Beshear in an off-year election cycle with no national narrative pushing against the D label. Now its too early to say that definitively, but Kentucky is a world of its own when it comes to politics, as illustrated by its State House and Senate memberships weathering the 2010 cycle very well compared to other southern states.

Off Topic, but related to KY: Senator Bob Leeper (I-Paducah)has to be the luckiest politician in the Kentucky, surviving yet another razor thin election against a fairly strong Democratic opponent. He has been a turn-coat to both parties, yet manages to survive. I figure westkydem has a opinion on this race.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Advice to Beshear
Pick your opponent, like Harry Reid did.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
With the crap shoot that is politics and marketing
it's getting to be pretty easy to do this.  Just gotta invest the dough to make it happen.
[ Parent ]
Ah yes, Leeper
Definitely a lucky guy. I still think his opportunism will come back to haunt him one day, but for now he keeps escaping. He's definitely vulnerable in any given year, though his best bet is probably to keep trying to make good with Senate GOP leadership. We could've gotten him in '06 if we'd put up anybody but Carroll Hubbard (who, for the uninitiated, is a charming former Congressman who did time for campaign finance violations).

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
What's the consensus on Beshear?
How is he as a governor?

Also, do you expect that since the Dems hold the Gov and the State House that they can draw a better map for Chandler?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
He's fairly well liked
Nobody will ever be really fired up about him, but considering the fiscal mess the state's in, Beshear is still doing pretty well. He has a solid base here in Western Kentucky, where he's from. We like our hometown politicians.

Dems still control the state house, albeit by a smaller margin than before. The GOP sill has the senate. It's too early to say for sure about the Gov race, but if Williams really is the best the Republicans can find, and things don't get significantly worse economically, I like Beshear's chances.

As for redistricting, I don't really think much will change. There's honestly not much that can be done for Chandler- he already has Lexington and Frankfort. None of the territory right around his district would be any more friendly to him.
I suppose they could stretch him into Louisville a little, but do much of that and you're putting Yarmuth on thin ice. He'll probably just have to keep relying on his personal popularity for now.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
I see.
Also, Chandler came close because of the national environment, not because of his district.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's true
If he survived a year like this, I think he'll be okay for the foreseeable future. And in the long-term, Lexington is growing and getting more liberal (they just elected an openly gay mayor), so that will help. The short-term risk for Dems is that Chandler decides to leave and run for something else. He's a perfect fit for that district and would be difficult to replace.  

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
You could take it down into coal
counties like Floyd and whatnot that are overwhelmingly Democratic.  
[ Parent ]
I did a 4-2 map of Kentucky about a year ago
[ Parent ]
Good, I hope they try to hammer that one out.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I've
always liked him a lot. Classic southern populist Governor. Not really conservative but comes off as such. Straight D on most all issues. He's done as well as he can with a Republican senate. Couldn't get gambling through because of Republican majority. Came close to getting a Dem Senate after he nominated off Republican Senators to other offices but it didn't work. A nice guy from everything I've heard.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Phil Who?
Forgive my ignorance, but Moffett sounds like someone who's come of nowhere. And yet, Beshear still polls under 50% against him.
Well yes, considering that there's about 30% undecided in this poll
If a pollster doesn't push undecideds, just about anyone is going to be under 50%. I think it's probably a bad idea to use that as evidence that Beshear is vulnerable.
[ Parent ]
He has positive job approval
That is far more important.
[ Parent ]
Plagiarizing and distorting history.
David Williams is the second person late to the party.

Nebraska AG Jon Bruning is the first.

Time to keep a list.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Gee, David Williams sure is boring
Steve Beshear's success at gubernatorial politics will be almost entirely due to the Republicans nominating candidates nobody likes at this rate.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Mah boi,
These candidates are what all true politicians strive to be!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I really need to stop making these references on here
If anyone does take my posts seriously, they're not going to after I inevitably write something about there being light brought to some politician's lair.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Any chance we can rope Beshear into challenging Paul in 2016?
If he does a good job in his second term, he'd be the strongest on our bench there, even though we do have a pretty deep bench surprisingly.
[ Parent ]
Beshear will be about 70 by then
Obviously, it's too early to count him out (or in!) but I think that'd be unlikely. He's already ran for Senate once before, in 1996, and took a pretty heavy defeat from Mitch McConnell.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Totally did not know about his age
For this I'm kind of grateful that the bench there is so deep for some reason.  I remember in 2007 how the GOP email after the drudging they got in the polls was something like "The fact that we've elected a State Agricultural Commissioner is proof that Kentucky still believes in GOP values" or something, since they lost every other statewide race xD
[ Parent ]
Is the other David Williams still a Dem or a Rep now?
there was a David Williams who was nominated by the Dems for Ag Commissioner in 2007 who won that spot because his name was nearly the exact same as the more famous David Williams.

Will he be able to run for Governor as a Republican?

KY-Gov: Beshear Starts Off With 9-Point Lead Over Williams | 27 comments

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