Mandel

The PD has been propping up Mandel since he first ran for the state legislature. He's a dirty campaigner and I can't imagine he would have played well in parts of the state and mostly got swept in on a wave.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

---

by: 54cermak @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 20:35:58 PM UTC

PD?

Can you link to anything on the dirty campaigning? I haven't heard a thing about him...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 20:46:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Found it, from the Plains Dealer

"Mandel's 30-second attack ad against Boyce contained a postcard of a mosque, a picture of a man with an Arab name and the implication that Boyce, who is black, is Muslim. He is not.

The spot criticized Boyce for approving a state contract that went to a Boston firm whose sole Ohio lobbyist is a friend of Boyce's deputy treasurer, who is Muslim.

The friend's wife also was hired to work in Boyce's office. The ad claimed that the job opening was only announced in "their mosque," at least by implication suggesting that Boyce is Muslim.

The Ohio Democratic Party blasted the ad as "an appeal of the worst kind that plays on weaknesses that some Ohioans have to religion and race and bigotry."

Boyce sent a "cease and desist" letter to the Mandel campaign seeking to have the commercial taken off the air. The ad ended when its cycle ran out.

Maria Armstrong, an attorney representing Mandel's campaign, said the ad may have contained a "confusing use of pronouns" that might have been better explained if the 30-second ad were longer. But, she said, there could be alternative interpretations regarding who that portion of the ad is referring to, so it should not be found false.

In the O'Shaughnessy case, the Ohio Democratic Party argued that both television ads and mailers attacking O'Shaughnessy falsely stated that she voted to raise her own pay, was "padding her own pockets" by spending $30,000 on furniture for the Franklin County Clerk of Court's office, and that she took campaign money from an indicted Cuyahoga County official.

The panel voted 2-1 that it is likely the pay raise and furniture claims are false, with Republican Chuck Calvert voting to dismiss the complaints. The panel, which included Democrat John Mroczkowski and independent Harvey Shapiro, voted unanimously to find probable cause that it was false to say O'Shaughnessy took campaign cash from indicted Cuyahoga County Commissioner Jimmy Dimora.

Corey Columbo, representing the Democratic Party, argued that O'Shaughnessy got a $100 contribution from Dimora for her previous campaign for county clerk of courts in 2008, 27 months before he was indicted on a variety of corruption charges.

The panel also found at least some merit to his argument that O'Shaughnessy could not legally vote herself a 42 percent pay raise, so that statement was false. As for the furniture purchases, he said much of that was for equipment such as time-stamp machines and paper shredders. The only furniture, he said, was conference room chairs.

The panel was concerned that some ads stated that the furniture purchases were "padding her own pockets."

"She did not pad her own pocket with furniture," Shapiro said.

In a separate case, the elections panel ruled in favor of Mandel in his complaint about an e-mail sent by Boyce on Sept. 10, which stated that Mandel claims "the treasurer doesn't have a role in helping to create and retain jobs in Ohio."

Armstrong said just the opposite was true. "Mr. Mandel never said that, and you have ample evidence he said quite the contrary," she told the commission.

The panel agreed, voting 3-0 to find probable cause of a false statement."

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 20:52:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jimmy Dimora

That one name was a killer for Democrats in Ohio in 2010.  A lot of loyal democrats in Cleveland and the surrounding area either voted indy or sat out the election because of the swirling corruption scandal in Cuyahoga County.  If it wasn't for that, I think Strickland would've beaten Kasich, and Richard Cordray would've won his race against Mike Dewine, those two races the Rs won with 49% and 48% respectively.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 13:55:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And the PD played up that "scandal" as much as they could...

It really was overplayed for quite a minor scandal, really.

And, yes, it must have had some effect since Cuyahoga County turnout was dismal.  Had the county come out like it should have, Strickland would have won and so would have Cordray, definitely.

At least that's over now with the new county government, although, I'm sure the PD will try to invent some more scandals along the way.

---

by: LordMike @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:20:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It'll be interesting to see

if Pearce even lives in the new AZ-06. He lives pretty close to AZ-05 right now, and I could see a good argument for including his once-working-class-white (but rapidly becoming Hispanics who don't vote mixed with a few white hanger-oners who haven't fled yet and get outsized electoral influence) Downtown Mesa geographic base into a swing East Valley district with Tempe, Chandler and Ahwatukee. Ah well, there's always going to be uber-Republican and uber-Mormon East Mesa/Gilbert for him to move to. We'll see how much of the primary field he can clear. He is 63, but he's tough (he actually survived a gunshot wound to the chest as a Maricopa County sheriff some years back). He also has tons of baggage, such as the whole "paling around with Neo-Nazis" thing and an incident in the 1980s in which his wife filed a court complaint [pdf] claiming he had a violent temper and was physically abusive towards her (she ultimately changed her mind on pursuing a divorce).

I'm also surprised to see how many Republicans are moving out of Flake's way, even though his support in the Republican base is, well, flaky. I still can't imagine that he won't get a major challenge in the primary due to his highly-controversial "Mexicans are people too" position.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 20:51:34 PM UTC

redistricting

I drew a map with the new AZ9 going into the west valley, and AZ5 (Schweikert) ended up largely as you describe, taking more of west Mesa to compensate for losing most of north Scottsdale to AZ3 (Quayle) which was forced east. I don't expect that to happen, because the whole thing was a nightmare for Republicans. AZ9 was 55% Hispanic, AZ1 (Gosar) lost Yavapai to AZ2 (Franks) and had to pick up the less-red Cochise, forcing AZ8 (Giffords) to take much of AZ7 (Grijalva) and probably moving it from lean-R to lean-D. It ended up with 3 blue districts, 3 absurdly red districts, and 3 swing districts that are all probably even or lean-D.  

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:06:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

There are a few things like the East Valley district that we both described and a Yavapai-Mohave district that makes tons of sense from a communities of interest POV but just might not come together because of the pressures districts around them put on their borders. Your map sounds like it would be pretty interesting though; you never know.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:51:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Flake

Don't underestimate how much the GOP loves Flake, this is a guy they BEGGED to get to take a slot on Appropriations to be the watchdog on Hal Rogers.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:15:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think there's kind of a disconnect

between what the beltway Republicans think makes sense (which is Senator Flake) and what AZ Republican primary voters actually want to see in a candidate. The AZ conservative blogosphere response to Flake is rather tepid. Or maybe tepid isn't the right word; some passionately for him but more than a few passionately against. He certainly seems polarizing in local conservative circles.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:56:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WaPo "The Fix" does revisionist history

This is what I've heard called "re-writing the narrative", basically going back and cherry picking factoids to justify the already passed result.  Anyway let me hear what you guys think...

"But the bigger problem was the broader message that the Bayh and Dorgan retirements sent to a party already growing nervous about the political environment.

Taken together, the two retirements created a sense of panic within the Democratic ranks as talk swung to whether Republicans could actually win back control of the Senate -- a prospect that had seemed beyond outlandish just a year earlier."

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:10:30 PM UTC

stories

I think the bigger problems were that the economy was very weak while the Dems had a monopoly on power, and that the Dems held a bunch of seats that would normally be toss-ups or favor a Republican. Journalists don't like to attribute election results to the economy, as it makes for dry stories.  

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:19:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Betsy McCaughey probably wins in a three-way vs. DioGuardi/Malpass

I'd wager the Conservative Party backs her right out of the starting gate, leaving DioGuardi less leverage than in '10 among the Tea Party crowd. Malpass is the favorite of the Giuliani/Lazio wing of the New York GOP, but that sect has proven so weak in primary politics lately. He might be able to eek-out around a 40% victory if the other two split the far-right, but it's doubtful.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:10:45 PM UTC

Who cares?

Whoever wins will get crushed by Gillibrand like everybody else.

---

by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 12:13:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just another speed bump on her way to the White House

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

---

by: xcave @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:10:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Glad you guys are excited about the DK move, even if I'm definitely not

In other news, replacing the libertarian-flavored Rep. Flake with a (literal) neo-Nazi like Russell Pearce would be unfortunate. I'd rather see a Democrat - particularly the presently incapacitated Rep. Giffords - succeed Sen. Kyl than Flake, but of the Republican options in Arizona, Flake is definitely my top preference.

Bysiewicz is definitely feeling the heat. It'll be interesting to see whether she can make a race of it (I doubt Rep. Courtney will enter at this point, but I could be wrong) against Rep. Murphy, but she's definitely trying to keep him from running away with the mo'.

Ohio is on my list of races that could get uncomfortably hairy. New York decidedly is not.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:17:41 PM UTC

NV-Sen: wouldn't we all love to be a fly on the wall...

...when Angle has her "talk" with Ensign about...er...Angle primarying Ensign?

Of course, since he knows in advance that's what her next call to him is about, how does she get him to even take the call?  Does she have to confront him at a townhall, or at one of his fundraisers that she has to pay to attend?

The Nevada GOP is just delicious.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:18:28 PM UTC

Would Ensign encourage her?

aka would Ensign have a better chance against a split field?

I wondering whether Angle would take more votes from Ensign or (potentially) Heller.

But if the conventional wisdom is to be believed, Ensign would almost certainly lose to Heller -- so an Angle in the race could at least shake things up.

---

by: tietack @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:26:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think Ensign wants Angle in it, for a couple of reasons......

First, and most dangerous to Ensign, Angle has proven she can win.  She won a U.S. Senate primary last year, and almost won a U.S. House primary, in a 3-way, not long before that.  That was when Dean Heller, a multiple-term elected Secretary of State, won the open seat; he beat back Angle by a razor-thin margin, with then-Gov. Jim Gibbons' wife a serious candidate herself coming in 3rd.

If you're Ensign, do you really want to have to compete with someone like Angle who has proven she has a pretty big base within the party?

Second, Angle wouldn't run to help Ensign, she'd run to win.  This is closely related to the point above.

Third, Angle and Ensign both are such mockeries now that he might have to worry about unwanted attention on his own foibles if a contested primary develops that's an even bigger butt of jokes.

You've got the right idea that Ensign might like to see a divided primary opposition, but I imagine if Angle is in it, he'd want more than a 3-way with her and Heller, he'd want one or two other credible choices on there.

What's tough to know is what is Ensign's floor in a primary?  He's the incumbent, and reliably conservative ideologically, so his floor can't be nuthin'.  But at some point you lose people who like you simply due to electability.  That's happened with Sarah Palin, whether she realizes it or not, with a lot of rank-and-file right-wing Republicans who genuinely like her realizing she can't win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:44:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Angle

I think Ensign wants Angle in under almost any realistic scenario. If Heller (or another high-profile establishment type like Krolicki) runs, she pulls some of the anti-Ensign vote away from him. The same is true if the rest of the field is just one or even two low-profile challengers. I think you have to get to three or more low-profile opponents before Angle hurts Ensign. Angle would likely draw most of the people who voted for her in the 2010 primary but don't like Ensign, which would probably put her above what any of the three hypothetical who-dats could have gotten. She got 40% in that primary, and I suspect that her floor in a 3+ primary would be about 20% and her ceiling 35%.  

I would guess that Ensign's floor is around 30%. I think that's a little less than Dan Burton got in his House primary in 2010.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 22:09:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

See, I disagree strongly where Angle draws from......

I think she does take some from Ensign right up front if she runs.  She easily could take away from Ensign as much as from Heller.

First of all, remember that in the rural NV-02, Angle and Heller were enemies in the primary in 2006.  It was bitterly fought primary decided by a razor-thin margin, there is bad blood between them, and there is bad blood between their supporters.  Heller's only conspicuous comment during last year's Senate race was to criticize Angle for opposing extending emergency unemployment benefits; Heller never criticized Reid for anything, ever.

Second, Sharron being crazy as she is, it follows that her supporters by their very nature don't think practically about voting.  They like ideological purity.  And Ensign is a more ideologically pure conservative than Heller, who is marginally more practical.  Indeed, Ensign has been posturing on the right in recent months, not that it's not who he really is in the first place, but he's doing it a little more conspicuously.

So Angle jumps in, and many hard right primary voters (remember Angle got 41% in last year's Senate primary) might very well be drawn to her over both Heller who is impure and Ensign who is compromised.  These people don't necessarily view Angle herself as compromised in any way, insomuch as her craziness is from being a dunce and a demagogue, things that her supporters share with her so they don't see those things in Angle in the first place.

There isn't going to be the same "anti-Ensign" vote in a primary as there would be in a general election.  Primary voters are overwhelmingly conservative and like Ensign's political record, the only issues are his morality and resultant electability.  That's a lot less to dislike than if you don't share Ensign's politics, as most general election voters don't.

Yeah Ensign wants a split anti-Ensign field to draw from Heller, but not just anyone draws mostly or entirely from Heller.  Someone like Angle could draw from Ensign.  What I want if I'm Ensign is someone credible who still plays well with establishment-friendly voters who otherwise favor Heller.  But that type of candidate also is less likely to jump in against Heller, so Ensign is in a pickle.

I suspect we'll end up seeing a 2-way primary, perhaps with a few local cranks or gadflies combining for a trival vote share while Heller destroys Ensign much like Sandoval destroyed Gibbons last year.  Not the result I want, I really want to see Ensign survive the primary, but right now I don't see that happening.  Our best bet is for Ensign to succeed in his new fundraising push, raising enough both to compete and to possibly scare away Heller, although the latter is unlikely.  If Ensign can't even raise money, he likely ends up retiring just like Bunning last year, who also insisted he was running and badly wanted to but couldn't raise a dime and was forced to hang it up.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:21:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

About Angle running again for the senate

I think Heller have panic of see Angle running, and Ensign have not reasons for feel safe. She can unseat him, no doubt.

Even the democrats can feel fear of have Angle as the republican nominee.

---

by: abgin @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:00:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really

If Republican primary voters nominate Angle again - a scenario I presently see as inconceivable, barring a sea change that turns the driving dynamic from Sen. Ensign vs. the world to Sharron Angle vs. the world, in which the establishment vote splits between Ensign, Rep. Heller, and possibly another candidate (like Brian Krolicki) and Angle wins with a small plurality of the vote after consolidating Tea Party support - they're effectively gift-wrapping Ensign's seat for literally any Democrat in the state. Angle vs. Rep. Berkley would be a blowout of epic proportions.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:13:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What do you think Angle's

ceiling is in the primary?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:07:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

...and now my view is validated by real data (links)......

Ralston has the scoop here:  http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

Heller's polling memo here:  http://media.lasvegassun.com/m...

Short story:  Heller crushes Ensign by 15 in 2-way, and in a split field including Angle Heller beats Ensign by 16 with Ensign in 2nd ahead of others.

That's what I would have guessed.

And yes it's an internal poll, but I'm inclined to believe it.  You don't run and leak a skewed poll to test your challenge against an incumbent of your own party!

And in case you're wondering, no it doesn't look like the poll tested any general election matchups.  Or if they did, they're keeping that a secret.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 13:58:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

hmm

I was wrong about Angle's floor. I figured she could get at least 20 in any scenario but she was at 14.  

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:31:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So what would you do if you were Ensign?

I'd guess that some other prominent Rs (e.g. Kroleki, Lowden) would not run if Heller does, but don't know.

Is there a combination of opponents that would be best for him?

My gut would still be to encourage as many candidates as possible, to maximize the risks for Heller. While the polled multicandidate field (which doesn't include Kroleki or Lowden) shows no help for Ensign

a multicandidate field by definition leads to more unpredictability.

---

by: tietack @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:03:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pure conjecture

But I think Ensign will resign. Once Heller actually jumps in he'll have to realize his goose is cooked, if he then makes the (obvious) decision not to run again, what is the advantage to staying in the Senate and face a humiliating ethics hearing and all the dirty laudry that will entail?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:14:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's in the same boat as Jim Bunning 2 years ago, meaning he will...

...try his damndest to raise a lot of money, which he's doing right now, and if that fails, he'll swallow his pride and announce retirement.

I was actually surprised Bunning retired, because he really was emotionally committed to fighting for reelection.  But the money spigot was shut off, and that was enough to break through his stubborness.

I expect it's much the same with Ensign, if the money has dried up for good, he'll hang it up.

But if the money is there, Ensign will do everything he can to keep posturing as the "real" conservative, constantly challenge Heller's bona fides, and fight to the finish like Jim Gibbons last year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 21:53:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can't Ensign self-fund with his parents' money, though?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 21:56:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't he more likely to fundraise

To pay for legal bills?

---

by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 21:59:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good point

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 22:03:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WV-Gov

Maloney may not be a total some dude. He is one of the owners of the company that made the special tool needed to get to the miners early in the Chilean mining rescue, and may have self-funding ability. Cliff Ellis is also a former mayor of some city in WV.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:22:27 PM UTC

Wasn't

he the one at Obama's SOTU that Obama highlighted? Would that hurt him at all?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:09:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasn't him

That was a guy named Brandon Fisher from Pennsylvania, who invented the tool and founded the company that created it. Maloney's company was involved in later stages of manufacturing the device.  Not sure what the relationship between Fisher and Maloney is....

 

---

by: terje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:25:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:57:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ballot Order

California randomizes ballot order and for statewide offices rotates through their randomized list in each of the 80 assembly districts.  This got some attention in the recall election of 2003 where voters had to sort through a list of over 100 candidates.  Massachusetts is the worst in this regard.  Here it's alway incumbent first, followed by name in alphabetical order.  At least they didn't do it by alphabetical order of party!

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:32:25 PM UTC

Another Method

When I lived in NY, the ballot would have the incumbent governor's party first, then would go to the party with the second number of votes, etc.

---

by: akosmowski @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:39:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

a CA SoS link

covering the CA statewide rotation methodology: http://www.sos.ca.gov/election...
It came about due to a supreme court ruling back in the 70's. It seems a fair approach, giving every name to be on the top line on some ballots.

In Massachusetts, I'm surprised a candidate (or candidates) doesn't try to take that to court.

---

by: homerun @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 00:43:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-26

All the talk is coalescing around one more person from Clarence, NY.  Perhaps the issue is that right there.  When Genesee County was represented by someone other than a Republican from suburban Erie County, it had a solid representative.  In my lifetime, that would have been Barber Conable (R-Alexander), who went on to be president of the World Bank, and Louise Slaughter (D-Perinton).  Since then, the three Republicans from suburban Erie County (Bill Paxon, Tom Reynolds, Chris Lee) have left with a tinge of shame on them.  Perhaps its time for someone from outside suburban Erie County to be elected.  For other thoughts, see here.

---

by: akosmowski @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:38:32 PM UTC

What was Bill Paxon's "tinge of shame"? I don't remember anything. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 21:46:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The power grab

He was a leader who wanted to bring Newt Gingrich down from the Speaker of the House in the late 1990s

---

by: akosmowski @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 22:47:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, he succeeded??? And no Republicans ever missed Newt in hindsight! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:23:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually

He didn't succeed.  He left when Newt was still in control.

---

by: akosmowski @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:45:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, thanks, I didn't know the timing of Paxon's exit from Congress. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:00:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Giffords recovery update

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_...

Recovery continues at a good pace

---

by: rmpatrick @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 22:00:43 PM UTC

NH-Pres: Romney at 40, Giuliani 2nd, Pawlenty, Huckabee tied for 3rd

http://www.wmur.com/r/26859973...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 22:42:56 PM UTC

Best Part

Palin at 6%, while Romney is up by 8 points on Obama, Palin is down by 23

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:02:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't

believe Palin will run to be honest. She isn't stupid, giving up all that dough she's making to run for the president? Doubtful, she loves being part of the peanut gallery and makes a ton of money being part of it.

And your point about Romney up 8 points against Obama, it was the only Kerry-Bush state so its definitely possible the state will flip. Independents are so fickle.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:30:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH

WTF?  Obama down 8 in NH already?  This is horrible news, and a terrible omen.

29/D/Male/NY-01

---

by: Tekzilla @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:24:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Um, no

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:27:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't take that poll too seriously

It was conducted by UNH, which has a fairly checkered polling record in NH, and done over a 10 day period, which is definitely not the standard in professional polling.

The sample was 47% Republican (as opposed to 2008, when the turnout was 29% Democratic, 27% Republican and 45% Independent).

Not a poll to panic over...

---

by: terje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:35:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

47%

Republican?! Impossible, neither Democrats or Republicans break 40% voter registration in that state.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:41:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what the story says

357 of 757 voters surveyed were Republican.

Perhaps they were trying to oversample to gauge the Republican presidential primary, but it throws the results out the window entirely.

---

by: terje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 02:43:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Holy fuckballs!

Obama should just cede the nomination to that crazy anti-abortion dude running against him in the primary.

Meanwhile, here in the real world, Obama leads Romney by 4 in NH in a Republican Magellan poll from just a few days ago, and by 7 nationally in a Fox News poll.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:35:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Did you not see how Democrats got killed there last year?

New Hampshire is a fiscally conservative state, you can't be surprised a Democratic President who tried to end tax cuts is doing badly there.  

---

by: DNick @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 02:59:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Except that he's not.

He was at 46-48 approval at the mid-term election, and I assure you that has only improved since in light of the improvement in his nationwide approval.  Magellan pegged it at 50-44 this past week and he beat Romney 48-44 head-to-head.  UNH is throwing darts at a dartboard.  It has a terrible track record and other users have chronicled the problems with this particular poll already.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:08:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well then good

but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see New Hampshire be one of the only states to go the other way next year, especially against someone like Romney.  

---

by: DNick @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:13:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I seem to remember people saying he wasn't popular

in the state. Am I thinking of someone else?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 06:19:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The enthusiasm gap was more pronounced there

And this particular poll oversampled Republicans, another recent polls showed Obama at 50% approval and leading all opponents.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:16:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You can't be surprised that a poll that oversamples Reps by 50%

would have results that would surprise anyone who didn't look at the sample.

It's garbage.  Adjusting the sample to 2010 turnout numbers (not even 2008 numbers), Romney would be lose to Obama, and all the others would be crushed.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:59:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Surprised to see Obama down in NH

considering that he beat McCain by ten points there.  Is Romney's regional closeness worth more than McCain's famous appeal in NH?  Romney doesn't seem to be outperforming McCain in other states that have been polled so far.

---

by: skaje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:30:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Romney is a part-time New Hampshireite

He owns a $10MM house on Lake Winnipesaukee.

---

by: emilysdad @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:37:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hold on a minute, and I reading this wrong...

"757 randomly selected New Hampshire adults..."
"includes a subsample of 357 likely Republican voters"
"subsample of 259 likely Democratic primary voters"

So 757 random adults (doesn't even say registed voters)...
of which 357 (47%) are "likely" Republican voters...
and only 259 (34%) likely Democratic voters...
leaving only 141 (19%) indepenedant/none/other responders

That seems total drivel.  2010 exit polls show 40% independant, 30 Republican, 27 Democrats.  (2008 was 44I, 27R, 29D.)

Am I missing somthing, or is this sample that nutty?

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:07:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

lol

that would explain it.  Funny that even with such a favorable sample Palin is down 23 points in a state that's usually competitive.

---

by: skaje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:33:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is hilarious

The poll is obviously total crap - 47% Republican in any New England state, even relatively conservative New Hampshire, is absolute rubbish, as they say here in New Zealand - but it seems there's no way to rig a poll that shows Palin anywhere near competitive in New Hampshire. Amazing.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:51:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Palin is the nominee

we could be looking at over 400 electoral votes.  Winning states like Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota, maybe even Texas.  Would be a hilarious campaign for sure.

---

by: skaje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:40:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correction:

if Palin is the nominee, we are probably looking at a minimum of 400 Electoral College votes, with 500 certainly possible. He would win, at minimum, all of the states he won last time, and probably all of the ones you mentioned, plus South Dakota and South Carolina. He'd have better than average shots of picking up states like Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Nebraska, and Kansas, and while Wyoming and Idaho, as well as the others, would be a stretch, he can simply act as if those are the swing states instead of Virginia and Ohio. Because they would be, of course.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:13:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now that I think about it

considering Palin's utter collapse of support in Alaska, she might even lose there too.  Just 3 electoral votes, but 3 pretty significant ones to lose I think.  Obama would get a LOT of the Lisa Murkowski voters.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 03:59:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

President Obama has better approval's in

Alaska then Palin.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 04:02:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Might be worth making an investment in Alaska

in order to contest the state's congressional seat and build up more of a party structure for when Begich is up for reelection in 2014 in addition to trying to win the state's Electoral College votes.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 06:00:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed, and Murkowski would probably endorse Obama

Which, I think, brings up a rather intriguing scenario - moderate elected Republicans backing Obama over Palin. I do wonder if Obama could garner the support of Susan Collins or Richard Lugar, for instance. I suspect so.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 16:52:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought something look off

A recent Magellan poll showed Obama up 4 over Romney, which seems more accurate. New Hampshire is very independent, so that low of an independent sample is quite inaccurate. The spread they used is identical to the party registration numbers in Alabama.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:40:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH primaries are semi-open

Independents can vote in either primary, and with the question phrased that way, a large number of indies will be lumped into the Republican and Democratic columns. The Republican number does seem abnormally high, but with the 2012 Democratic primaries likely to be all academic, most centrist and perhaps even some center-left independents probably said they'll take the GOP ballot.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:41:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I realize that, but it still means we don't know if this is at all a valid sample......

If they're searching for likely primary voters, then they're missing big chunks of the electorate.  They have only 19% who are not "likely" to vote in either major party's primary.

In 2008 there were just over 526K primary voters with both sides having wide-open nominations to drive up turnout to record levels, and that still was just 74% of November turnout (which was 711K).  So 26% of November voters didn't vote in a primary.  Next year with only one side competitive, the primary participation will be substantially lower than 74% of the general election turnout.  But this poll is showing 81% of the sample likely to vote in a primary.

Regarding the total sample being "adults" rather than registered voters, I'll wait to see UNH's own polling memo rather than taking a news article's semantics at face value, since reporters often screw up reporting on polls.

Finally, I'm surprised no one in this subthread noted the GOP firm Magellan releasing its NH poll yesterday showing Obama at 50-44 job approval and with a 48-44 lead over Romney in November.  SSPer conspiracy linked to it yesterday.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:35:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Look at T-Paw

Pretty good.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:01:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ-Sen: Arpaio would lead GOP primary, with Flake, Hayworth tied for 2nd

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

If Arpaio doesn't run, Flake has only a 2-point advantage over Hayworth.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:01:41 PM UTC

weird

The link I found showed the second poll at Flake 22, Hayworth 20, Shadegg 17 with no one listed after that. Shadegg isn't running and I think most of his supporters would prefer Flake to Hayworth, but who else was polled and how did that other 41% shake out?

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:34:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

41% undecided in that 2nd poll

Click through to the Roll Call article.

---

by: homerun @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 00:14:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hayworth

I figured he was pretty damaged from his embarrassing run at McCain last year, but I guess the base still loves him...just not enough to toss out McCain.

The fact that Arpaio would lead the field if he ran is truly sad for the AZ GOP.

---

by: skaje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:35:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

just woke up

had a dream that it was election night (either midterm or presidential, not sure) and I was waiting for all the states to close. In my dream I looked at exit polls for Delaware's house race only to find out they weren't out yet. I was getting really excited and got really disappointed when I woke up. I think only people on this site could understand that feeling. Just had to share.

Also, for some reason while waiting for the polls to close, I was looking at one of those Weather Channel satellite precipitation maps for Arkansas/Mississippi/Louisiana. no idea why.

I guess for now I will have to be satisfied with Chicago (one week!!).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:05:31 PM UTC

Because the presidential election was such a blowout...

That rain could swing those states to President Obama?

I'll take that scenario, please.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:52:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was fairly sporadic rain

I remember it kept occasionally passing over some decent-sized city in Mississippi. I want to say Biloxi, but I think that is on the Gulf Coast in real life, whereas it was somewhat inland in my dream.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:15:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is a true political junkie dream

I can totally identify with it... a sad commentary for both of us.

---

by: terje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 02:45:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The funny thing is I don't think I've had a dream like this

for a loooooong time. My last dream must have been in like 2007 or something because it was about the 2008 presidential election but before we understood who the main players are. it was a very strange map, with Maryland going red but various red states going blue.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:18:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've had election dreams before

Usually close to an election.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 02:56:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

at least then, your thirst is about to be satisfied

2011 doesn't seem like it will be even as fun as 2009, let alone a nationwide election. November 2012 seems so far.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:19:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Similar one here

I dreamed that I was trying to remember the names of the three party leaders in Great Britain.  I got David Cameron and Nick Clegg, but I couldn't remember the new Liberal leader...until I decided it was David Blaine.

Sorry, Ed Miliband.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:26:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Back in early 2006

I dreamed that Democrats were winning every governorship and I saw the states in alphabetical order until Illinois, when I woke up.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 07:13:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wittman?

If Wittman runs and vacates his house seat doesn't this help uncomplicate redistricting a bit because despite the 1st being the most logical to take on some of the NOVA pop from the 10th he didn't want to be moved north into PW?  If he's out of the picture, the 1st is a blank slate with no incumbent to work around or tell to fuck off.

Also a basically anonymous congress critter wouldn't have the negs that Allen has and might be better for the Republicans - but if he's serious he's going to have to start doing something to distinguish himself.  Any press appearances or keynote speaches coming up?

---

by: bluemeanies @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:24:08 PM UTC

I find it very, very, very unlikely that Wittman would run

Since he won in '07, he's been a completely anonymous backbencher in Congress. I don't see why he'd give up a safe seat to run against Allen in the primary.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 00:50:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2012-Pres

The one and only Rush Limbaugh slams Daniels on his big tent comment at CPAC.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:43:03 PM UTC

And it starts..

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 00:38:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mitch Daniels

is going to go nowhere in the primaries.  He seems to think his conservative credentials are solid, so he's trying to appeal to moderate Republicans as well.  Bad strategy.  Compare that to Tim Pawlenty who seemed to be a rather middle-of-the-road Republican as governor of Minnesota but has now rediscovered himself as a rightwing firebrand.  I'd rather be in Pawlenty's position but they will both struggle as nominees I think.

---

by: skaje @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:38:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Middletown CT

Is not in the 2nd district. It used to be in the 2nd until the last redistricting where it was put mostly in 3rd, and a little in the 1st.  This was done to protect Republican Incumbent at the time Rob Simmons.  

---

by: Democrats2010 @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:44:00 PM UTC

Agreed

Although IIRC, it was redistricted out of the second to protect Courtney (who was a state senator at the time) from a potential Democratic primary challenger in his ultimately unsuccessful bid to beat Simmons in 2002 (he eventually got it done in 2006). Although I agree in that the Republicans (redistricting in CT is fairly bipartisan (read: incumbent protection)) probably went along with it to get the Dem-voting town of Middletown out of the 2nd to protect Simmons (Middletown contains Wesleyan).

---

by: FerdinandTheBull @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:13:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH-GOV

Anyone have insights on this race?  John Lynch is already the longest-serving NH governor since the colonial era.  Is there any buzz on whether he will run for a fifth term in 2012?  I haven't seen any.  I think it's Likely D if Lynch runs, but it may be a tricky hold if he retires. The Dem bench does not seem overwhelming.  Kuster, Swett, Shea-Porter, and Hodes were all losers in 2010, although Kuster performed well.

The only buzz I've heard on the race at all is that Ovide Lamontagne may run in the Republican primary, which I can only view as good news for Dems.  Wonder if John Sununu or Jeb Bradley would be interested.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 23:56:09 PM UTC

CA-47: Tan Nguyen sentenced to 366 days of prison

for flat-out lying under oath during a probe of voter suppression he was orchestrating.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 00:23:49 AM UTC

His campagn in 2006 sent

out phony letters to 14,000 latinos written in Spanish warning that the feds would arrest and deport them at polling centers

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 00:30:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Man, between this

Between this and Andrew Breitbart getting served by Shirley Sherrod, it's been a pretty good day for our judicial system.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:08:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL-Sen: The return of Will McBride?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:10:39 AM UTC

heh I thought they were talking about Bill McBride.

funny the article mentions that his last name hurt him in the 2006 senate primary. I doubt it did or it would now he would be interesting dark horse for the Rs.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 03:27:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Site news: DavidNYC

Maybe you should consider changing your login name after the move to Kos to your actual name.  That would be good for you talking-head interview and branding-wise.

Time to put part-time DavidNYC to sleep, and become a full time brand name.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:15:11 AM UTC

Yup

Agree

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

---

by: MosheM @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 04:20:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WI-Gov

The next gubernatorial election in Wisconsin isn't necessarily so far away. Walker's union busting has pissed off labor enough that talk of recall is in the air. Wisconsin has pretty generous recall laws. While the signature threshold is high (25% of the last Gov. vote, or 540,000), there's no requirement that petitioners demonstrate malfeasance. There's precedent in the state for policy-based recall: a state senator was recalled not too long ago for voting for a sales tax to pay for the Brewers stadium. If WI Dems can get a recall petition on the Nov. '12 ballot downticket from Obama (and given the level of raw hatred for him, it's definitely doable) Walker's in serious trouble.  

---

by: gpack3 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:12:31 AM UTC

wow

2 years since your last comment. welcome back!

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:35:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I'm kind of a lurker.

I usually only pop in here to talk about Wisco politics.

---

by: gpack3 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:17:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feel bad for anyone living in Wisconsin.

I can't say that people in Wisconsin should be surprised. I'm not from Wisconsin, so I can't really pretend like I'm an expert on the matter, but Walker's always seemed a little cocky to me, with his refusing stimulus funds and funding for the Madison-Milwaukee railroad. Is anyone in Wisconsin really angry over this? Republicans talk about right-to-work (or in Walker's case functional-right-to-work) all the time, you'd have to be foolish not to think that they'd try to implement these laws anywhere they can seeing as how white union members are some of the only working class whites who vote overwhelmingly Democratic anymore.

I know some Republicans in Michigan have talked about doing it, since there's a good chance that in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, etc. the state houses may flip back with presidential turnout; from an R's perspective why let a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity slip by?

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:37:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Luckily, Snyder

opposes right-to-work.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:56:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm glad, unlike Walker...

That, rhetorically, he took right-to-work off the table fairly forcefully (though not really definitively). His budget proposals really went after public employees (and has gotten push back from members of both parties):

http://blog.mlive.com/capitolc...

For those curious, here's a fair article about Snyder and right to work (summary: during the primary, he said he'd sign right-to-work legislation if passed, but thinks it's a divisive issue and does not want to speculate on it):

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

I'm pretty sure his budget will propose some limits on collective bargaining, but right-to-work would kill him in 2014, and assure the state house reflipping (every Republican seat in the Upper Peninsula would definitely flip back if he did something like even Walker is proposing, for example).

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 06:14:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

According to a TV interview...

So does Kasich, although I don't really believe him...

Yes, he said that he would not make Ohio a right to work state on TV.  Using those exact words, too.  The devil is in the details, of course.

---

by: LordMike @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 07:32:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Snyder

is less devious than Kasich, so I am more inclined to trust him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 07:34:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Snyder seems to actually be a real moderate...

...and a true independent from this party... unheard of from the right nowadays.

---

by: LordMike @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 07:42:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he's just smarter then Kasich or Walker, personally.

And I would call him more a centrist more then a moderate, like Mike Bloomberg. Places himself in the "mean" of most issues, is iconoclastic on one or two, but more independent because of circumstances then because of deeply-held beliefs.

Ex. The "conservative" opinion on right-to-work would be to support it. The "liberal" position would be to oppose. Snyder's is that he would sign it into law if it came to his desk, but he doesn't want legislators to pass it. Effectively, he's against right to work, even though he isn't.

Health care lawsuit - Republicans support Michigan's attorney general being part of the lawsuit against the ACA, Democrats oppose it. Snyder supports the lawsuit and repeal of the act, but is glad, unlike many Republican (and Democratic) governors to accept the Medicare expansion in the law.

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Refreshing for a Republican, and better then Engler, but not really moderate out of any sort of ideological ballast, but out of pragmatism. The quintessential CEO-governor.

I would compare him to Kenny Guinn or John Lynch; he's not so much independent from the party as independent of any need to pay fealty to the party since he rose to the top without its patronage or support. Those two governors managed to form pretty good relations with their state's legislatures; Snyder seems to be getting a lot of support (all the state Republicans did a 360 flip on Pure Michigan, for example), but that won't last if Snyder's buget plans go through.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:47:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wisconsin doesn't elect far right wackos

If we can help it. Walker didn't campaign as a Tea Partier. He campaigned as a sensible guy who'd bring common sense solutions to Madison. He's governed, however, like someone who's trying to cram as much of the Tea Party's agenda through as fast as possible, and people are waking up to how conservative he is.

After Doyle, a lot of people were willing to give the Republicans a shot again, because things were all right under Tommy Thompson, but he was nowhere near this radical.

Anyway, I've never seen public outcry for anything as widespread and deeply felt as the opposition to the union busting bill. Club for Growth is running ads telling people to call their legislators to support the bill, and contacts into legislators are still running about 40-1 against.  

---

by: gpack3 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:23:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting.

I wonder, does he backtrack and lose the support of his base, or does he try to cram this through and lose the support of everyone else?

Also, was Doyle really that bad, or was it some combination of the climate and the eight-year itch?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:32:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"If we can help it."

That's the key right there. The price you pay living in a purple state; lack the corruption and complacency that comes with one party domination, but you role the dice every time you elect some obscure state representative, county executive, washed out former congressman or businessman-turned-politico to give the other party a "chance." At least voters in Minnesota saw the light, and voters in Illinois weren't on the  path to self-immolation (well, mostly were't...).

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:53:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really good article on the rise of Peter King and the fall of the Nassau County GOP

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

It's long but very entertaining and worth reading.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 05:55:31 AM UTC

Wow

talk about a read right there. Most interesting was learning that Dean Skelos narrowly lost to a Democratic senate incumbent on Long Island (which is still pretty damn Republican on everything but the presidential level) in 1982 because the Republican brand in Nassau was toxic in 82 but beat him in 1984 thanks to Reagan's coattails. But of course it wouldn't be corruption that did in the vaunted Nassau Republican machine, it would be fiscal incompetence that led the country into insolvency.

And thanks to Ed Mangano's fiscal incompetence, Democrats stand a very good chance of regaining control of Nassau county once again.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 06:41:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are you referring to

how Republican Long Island supposedly is in 1982 or how Republican it supposedly is now?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 07:32:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As Republican as Nassau was in the early 80s

Skelos' district in Five Towns area was actually just as or more Democratic then than it is now.

The rest of the country, like North Hempstead for example, has moved dramatically to the left since then.  

---

by: DNick @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 13:39:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL-Sen

Nelson 41
Bush 49

Nelson 45
Mack 40

Nelson 49
LeMieux 35

Nelson 48
Haridopolos 25

Nelson 46
Hasner 22

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

---

by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 12:31:49 PM UTC

A Jeb Bush run

could send Nelson into retirement faster than a hastily-prepared Byron Dorgan memo to staff.  Good news is that Bush has disavowed a 2012 run of any kind.  But that can change, a la Tom Udall and Mark Warner in 2008.

Not in love with the Nelson-Mack numbers.  Mack has built-in name recognition because as I'm sure everyone knows his name is famous because (1) his father was one of Florida's US Senators during the 1990's and (2) his great-grandfather was a Hall of Fame baseball manager who holds the all-time MLB record for both wins and losses as a manager.

ND, NE, MT, and MO are tougher holds than this one.  I'd put this one next in line, followed by OH and MI.  Pretty confident about holding the rest.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 13:15:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jeb Bush is not going to run for Senate, ever, or for President in 2012......

Bush is not in the same position as Mark Warner or Tom Udall, his motivators are very different.  Jeb was a 2-term Governor already, he's making good money in the private sector now and he doesn't want to give that up, and he's always a credible force in the national GOP simply as a member of one of the party's royal families.

Jeb will never run for anything again except maybe President.  And he won't do that any sooner than 2016, if ever.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:03:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is he THAT different from Warner?

Popular former governor of a big state with vague presidential buzz surrounding him.  Might want to burnish his credentials in the Senate.  He will always be a party luminary as you say, but he would be viewed as a hero if he won them this Senate seat.

I assume you're right, but I've heard insider buzz that the Democratic party is taking the possibility of a Jeb run seriously.  That could just be Chicken Littlism after the 2010 drubbing, and it could also be bullshit, as insider buzz often is.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:31:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's hard to say

exactly how a race against Jeb would play out, but the easiest way for the Democrats to make this yet another referendum on the Bush years is to run another Bush. The Democrats could simply run ads showing long lines of unemployed workers and clips from the high point of the financial crisis with the tag line, "Obama's still cleaning up the mess from the last Bush. Do we really want to let Jeb Bush create a new one?" Seriously, what's this guy got that nobody else has? He can't run as a moderate with the hopes of getting through the primary, and it's not as if he potentially puts some state like New York or Pennsylvania into play.

If he's well liked in his state, which he appears to be, and he's got the sort of connections that won't die with time, his best option is to probably wait it out. He could be a hero to the party for winning them the senate seat, but if his personal ambition is to be president, then I'm not sure forcing his name back into the news and being on record for taking all sorts of difficult votes is the way to go. In other words, I'm not sure he loses anything but not taking any chances and simply staying above the fray.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:39:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really don't see MI flipping

Unless Obama is losing big nationally, he's going to win in Michigan, perhaps by a big margin, and with turnout in greater Detroit way up like in 2008, Stabenow would need to get murdered in northern and western Michigan to lose, and I don't see that happening.  

Ohio is a bit trickier, but Sherrod Brown has generally always had good favorables, and the ODP is going to go all out to make sure he wins.  Really I think he'll run at least 3-5% ahead of Obama, so unless O is getting pasted, I think Brown wins.

Nebraska is a goner.  North Dakota realistically will flip, but so far I think we're favored just barely in Montana and Missouri.  Again, the national environment in November of 2012 will probably decide those unless either Tester or McCaskill screw up.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:15:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I mostly agree.

Unless Obama's getting killed by more than eight points in all of these states, our candidates have got a shot. If he wins such states, they almost have to win; but even if he loses Ohio or Florida by two points, I could see Brown or Nelson pulling it out.

As far as Nebraska and North Dakota, I not willing to give up just yet. Ben Nelson has a big task ahead of him, but there's still a lot of time for his state's perception of him to change. He was outspent five to one last time and he crushed his opponent. North Dakota will also be hard, but we should wait to see how the primary shakes out before throwing in the towel.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:27:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with you

Michigan is not that likely to flip, but I feel less secure than, say, NJ, WI, or WA.  

I think we'll win OH by 5 or so due to the lack of a compelling R candidate.  FL is about the same unless Jeb jumps in.  

MO and MT I expect to be within a few points either way.  

NE I don't see how Nelson recovers after pissing off voters from both parties.  The only way I see a Dem win is a Nelson retirement and a very unlikely Bob Kerrey run.

As for ND, am I crazy to hope Dorgan runs?  He and Conrad have played switcheroo before, and I suspect Dorgan only retired to avoid a beatdown by Hoeven.  That said, I have not heard it suggested anywhere.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:42:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps

Nelson can't recover, but people aren't unhappy with him because he's in a scandal or something. It's more his personality. It's certainly possible to change people's perceptions between now and the race.

Also figure that while he's not going to get the same level of crossover support from Republicans that he received last time, short of some real turd from that side as the candidate, he's not that far away from where he needs to be to scrape by. In the PPP poll, he leads amongst Independents against both Bruning and Stenberg. The problem is that he receives far less than the Republican vote he received last time. He's also down amongst Democrats. Will these guys come home on election day? If he can up his numbers with Independents and Republic slightly and bring home some Democrats, he can win. It won't be easy, but it's not as difficult as it sounds.

There's also the possibility, although how strong it is remains unclear, that someone like Bruning or Stenberg won't be the nominee. Can the the Teabagger magic strike again?

As far as North Dakota, I want to see who the Democrats round up. It's been kind to Republicans lately, but it's not exactly hostile to Democrats. From what people here have said, it's far less likely that the Teabaggers help here than it is in other states, but even so, I'm not ready to throw in the towel. It's still far too early. We don't even know if Obama will contest the state.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:06:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He and Bob Bennett...

Became "senior policy advisors" to a D.C. lobbying firm. Though there's a window of escape (i.e. he can't officially register as a lobbyist until two years until he's left Congress), I doubt he'll want to return to North Dakota unless he gets a job in the energy sector or in academia. I could see him ending up in Obama's cabinet, but that's about it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:59:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasn't his reason for leaving the Senate

due to his family and specifically his wife?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:20:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He

didn't want to be pasted by Hoeven who had decided weeks before to jump into the race, that's the real reason. But I guess Hoeven was nice enough to tell Dorgan privately he was jumping in. The whole family spiel was just convienent.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:30:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So then why doesn't he jump right back in?

Would Hoeven have been as deadly if Dorgan were the nominee? Was there any chance he could have survived? I seem to remember some suggesting that Hoeven was in because Dorgan was out, but I could be screwing up the time line.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:33:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rankings

I tend to favor Stu Rothenberg's "vulnerability" scale this far out compared to Cook's Lean r/d or Toss-up. In the later system I would put 8 Dem and 2 GOP seats in "toss-up", but I don't think that clarifies things very much. Better to go with
"highly vulnerable" ND, VA, MT & NE
"Vulnerable" AZ, NV, MA, MI, MO, OH & FL
"Potentially vulnerable" ME, TX, PA, WI, MN
"Vulnerable only if Open" HI, NM...

It's way to far out to start picking winners/losers, even in Nebraska or North Dakota, but we can certainly forsee who/where the toughest races are.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:38:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Glaring omissions from the "potentially vulnerable" pile

Indiana and Tennessee. Bredesen leads Sen. Corker (who may not even be the nominee) and Sen. Lugar is openly courting a strong Tea Party challenge, maybe with an eye on an administration job if he can't secure another term in the Senate.

I also don't think Hawaii or New Mexico are vulnerable under any scenario. The Democratic bench in those states is very deep, while no Republican there who is likely to run is particularly popular statewide.

And I think the rumors of Republican strength in Virginia are exaggerated, with strongest GOP contender George Allen trailing both Chairman Kaine and Tom Perriello in the polls.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 01:26:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What sort of nonsense is this?

Why aren't they releasing the internals of the poll?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 14:19:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops, I didn't see that link

in the article.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:23:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unless Bush somehow runs, Lean D

I mean, it's rather obvious why Bush is the only Republican who can defeat Nelson - he's the only one of the GOP bunch to siphon-off a considerable share of Dems (nearly a fifth) from Nelson. With the other names, Nelson's the one siphoning-off votes from the opposite party.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:15:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mixed Bag

Looking at the drop off from Jeb Bush to Connie Mack;

Gender
Bush does 17 pts better among men (57-37=+20 vs 44-41=+3)
Bush does 7 pts better among women (42-45=-3 vs 37-48+-11)

Nelson sees a slight increase in both vs Mack, but the heavy dropoff shows strong growth possibility for Mack when he is better known (I wish we have fav/unfav and name ID on this poll).

Party
Bush does 8 pts better among GOPers (84-7=+74 vs 77-11=+66)
Bush does 13 pts better among Dems (19-71=-52 vs 9-74=-65)
Bush does 13 pts better among IND (42-45=-3 vs 31-47=-16)

Again Nelson's numbers are fairly consistent, with only a small uptick vs Mack instead of Bush, while Nelson has a significant dropoff from Bush's level of support. Again this shows Mack has significant room to grow.

In the end this dosn't tell us anything we don't already know, assuming the large field of well funded GOP candidates don't turn the primary into a circular firing squad (which of course IS a possibility) this is going to be a very VERY close race, right down to the wire. Nelson's ability to pull those Bush voters unsure about Mack et al into his fold will be the key, and is a very tough challenge given Nelson's long track record (this is where that 50% rule does come in handy, though far from being "gospel") Nelson is going to have a much tougher time than Mack et al getting voters who don't want to vote for him now to eventually vote for him in Nov.'12.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:39:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which numbers are you referring to?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:44:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bush supporters not (yet?) supporting Mack

Nelson's uptick in each matchup is pretty consistent between every sub-group;

Men - 37 to 41
Women 45 to 48
Dems 71 to 74
GOP 7 to 11
IND 45 to 47

Averaging that is really apples to oranges, but you'll looking at a 3.2% increase.

Compare that with Mack's drop-offs

Men 57 to 44
Women 42 to 37
Dems 19 to 9
GOP 84 to 77
IND 42 to 31

If we had a full set of cross tabs I'd start looking at who those drop offs are that aren't voting for Nelson, their age, race, income level and region are going to be the drivers in both campaigns, sadly we don't have nearly enough info to judge just how tough it will for Nelson to win them over vs Mack trying to win them "back"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:57:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, which polling numbers, from which outfit?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:22:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mason-Dixon

These are the crosstabs available in the poll release memo linked in the Politico article.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:27:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Did they add that in recently?

I just noticed it, but I am convinced it wasn't there this morning.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:31:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't know

I almost missed it at first, but my work computer doesn't like hyper-links.

One intersting thing I didn't catch till now was the huge difference in ballot test among IND between Bush/Mack and the others, including LeMieux. Not sure if that's something specific about Bush/Mack or just Independents being more likely to say they'll vote for the candidate they know. Interesting question on poll respondent's behavior, a GOPer who doesn't know the GOP candidate may say Don't Know whereas and Indy might be more inclined to want to give a definative answer, even if they only know one candidate and would be far more likely than a partisan respondent to change their mind once they know both candidates...something to think about...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:41:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unless I am misreading the PPP polling, Nelson's support

is understated, because it shows him not winning nearly as many Democrats as he's likely to win on election day. His lead would only grow so long as he doesn't somehow start getting killed with Independents.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:40:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meh

A lot of those Dem voters will come home, but many will also vote GOP, split their vote or just stay home. I would certainly expect Nelson to do no worse than 80% among Dems, even with Bush as his opponent (the 19% of Dems who support Bush are probably DINOs, it would be interesting to know if they asked "Are you a Democrat" or "Are you REGISTERED as a Democrat", there would probably be at least a 5% difference between the two identifiers...I have no idea what M-D methodology is.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:49:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, yes, but in the PPP polling, he has

some numbers that strike me as a little unrealistic. He's only getting 71 percent of Democrats versus Mack in that poll. In the Mason-Dixon poll, too, he's supposedly underperforming with Democrats, getting only 74 percent. Figure that even in a bad year for Democrats, the ceiling on Democratic support for a Republican is about 15 percent, around what Bush got in 2004 versus Kerry.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:30:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmmmm

Tough to judge, both polls agree on Dems...are these rural dems, say in N.FL or the panhandle or are they elderly Jews in Boca? That would tell us a lot about what they will eventually do...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:37:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Dems from that poll will stay home next year......

PPP uses a "soft screen" to begin with, sampling only voters who actually voted at least once in the 3 previous generals.  So these are people who vote.

And it's a Presidential year in a battleground Obama state, so the Obama campaign will make sure no one stays home.

Jeb Bush isn't running, and no one else will beat Bill Nelson.  I'm just not worried about that Nelson.  Ben on the other hand has an uphill climb.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 21:59:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was specficially

referring to Democrats who turn out but, for some reason, vote for the Republican for Senate, although I guess your comments would be one reason against that. After all, will there really be that many Obama/Mack voters?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 22:22:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I expect Bill Nelson will outperform Obama in Florida, in other words I agree with you......

I expect Bill Nelson will get more crossover support than whoever is the GOP Senate nominee.  So no, I don't think there will be many Obama/Mack voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 02:36:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dean

Heller definitely scoping out the Nevada senate race. He releases an internal showing him leading Ensign by 15 points.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...


19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:50:11 PM UTC

Oh my, new PPP poll shows Rethugs owning up to being racists......

Check this out:

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

The eye-opener is 51%(!) of Republicans now openly admit they don't believe Obama was born in the U.S.  Only 28% say he was, and the rest "not sure."  I'm actually as a rule somewhat forgiving of "not sure" respondents on birther questions because I can easily see where there could be a lot of regular voters who don't follow politics so closely and aren't familiar with birtherism; those people, prompted to impulsively answer a question that seems strange to them, easily could say "not sure" without actually having questions about Obama's legitimacy.

To be a birther is to be racist, it's racial code and dog whistle politics in the Obama era.  So it's pretty striking that increasing numbers of Republicans are willing to actually admit what they really think of a black guy with a non-European name in the White House.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:04:08 PM UTC

Maryland very very close to marriage equality

http://www.advocate.com/News/D...

If this passes, anyone know what the chances are it goes to a vote in 2012?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:06:25 PM UTC

Neat

any idea how gay marriage is going in Hawaii and Rhode Island?

Y'know, the two states I figured were locks to "go gay" this cycle . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:41:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RI

the whip count isn't as concrete as in Maryland but people generally seem optimistic. I'm actually not sure on the protocol for putting it on the ballot though--will look into that when it's not 3 AM...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:48:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

appears that

RI marriage could only be put to vote by a legislative vote or constitutional convention, and would hence most likely be safe.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 11:29:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Last I checked...

A majority of Maryland voters support gay marriage.

http://www.hometownannapolis.c...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 01:27:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's a pretty narrow majority

and it's a difficult issue to poll. I'd feel safer knowing that gay Marylanders' rights aren't going to be subject to the whims of others.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 11:26:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gillibrand

To think some people wanted Caroline Kennedy and thought her to have a brighter future.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:54:13 PM UTC

Corker in good shape, except if Bresden is the nominee.

Corker leads all people that PPP tested against him, except for Bresden, who leads by five. Are he and Corker really that close? How many female slaves will Patty Murray have to offer him to get into the race?

Also, it's interesting to note this paragraph:

The other folks we tested are Congressman Jim Cooper who trails 50-32, country singer Tim McGraw who trails 50-28, and former Congressman Bart Gordon who trails 52-29. McGraw is a Democrat and has said he might be interested in running for office in the future. He is quite popular in the state with 38% of voters expressing positive feelings toward him to only 16% who rate him negatively. Democrats, Republicans, and independents all give him good marks. But he would have some work to do to establish himself as a credible political figure. Cooper (53% of voters with no opinion) and Gordon (58% with no opinion) are both largely unknown at this point.

Would their numbers be even remotely competitive if they got into the race and weren't savaged from the outset? Maybe this could turn out to be interesting.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:31:03 PM UTC

Has Bresden made any statements about a Senate race?

Haven't heard a thing about him being interested, he's 67 years old, which is a bit long in the tooth to START a Senate career...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 19:06:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From what I can tell, he hasn't ruled it out, but he also

hasn't really given any indication he'd like to run.

I honestly wasn't sure, so I did a quick search, and this seems to reflect what is out there: "I really like the public sector, and if there are some opportunities there, I'd be open..."

http://politics.nashvillepost....

Honestly, he is old, but he's been governor for a long time, was mayor before that, and had an extensive career in the private sector. If he were to be sworn in during January 2013, he'd be 70, but that's how old Lamar Alexander is now. He could serve two terms easily if he's in good health.

The thing that most concerns me is his supposed friendship with Corker. I'm not sure if it's a legitimate friendship, a la Orrin Hatch and Ted Kennedy, or if they simply aren't at each others' throats, or if it's something in the middle. I am not familiar with how this dynamic plays out, but if the two are really close, I'm not sure Bresden would even want to do it, or if how he'd go about doing it even if he wanted to. Suffice it to say that I imagine Patty Murray will contact him as soon as she can and ask all of the questions she can think of. It's just one poll, of course, but it's an interesting result when there are very few pick up opportunities.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 19:28:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Corker could definitely be vulnerable

He's never been a real heavyweight, and while he's a relatively sane, non-offensive conservative, I don't gather that there are too many people that are real enthusiastic about him. If a solid, non-Harold Ford candidate had been the nominee in '06 (read: Bredesen) I think he would have lost.

Bredesen is rather old, but at 67 he could still be good for a couple terms. I think Bart Gordon is an interesting candidate if Bredesen says no. He's not well known, but he held down an increasingly red district for years all while being quite liberal (For TN anyway). He almost definitely would have lost his house seat last hear had he run, but '12 should be different. I think he still has political aspirations and he could be an intriguing candidate.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

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by: westkydem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 19:18:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bresden did run in 2006 for governor,

basically racking up totals that made history. Maybe he wouldn't have been as successful in a Senate race, but like you, I think that if he had run, he would have won.

Now, while the numbers for the others aren't exactly encouraging, lots of people don't know who Bart Gordon or Jim Cooper are. Perhaps either of them could make it a real race if they wanted to.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 19:31:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bredesen '06

Yes, he won EVERY county that year, even those east TN counties that were solid Republican long before the rest of the south. I know it was a favorable year, but that really speaks to his unique strength.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

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by: westkydem @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 19:35:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indeed.

You know, perhaps the academic political science guys here can tell me if I am way off, but perhaps a Bresden candidacy could do a lot to not only stabilize the Democrats in the state but to expand their strength. They'll always have the big cities, but they need to expand beyond those to have any hope of being competitive statewide, in either state or national contests. And while Bresden isn't a spring chicken nor a magician who can instantly bring about positive results for other Democrats, both giving them a seal of approval and getting people used to the idea of voting for one can help. Tennessee is, after all, still a fairly big state, and it wouldn't hurt to have one more state that is up for grabs when it comes to its Electoral College votes and its senate seats.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:05:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cooper ran before and lost

Gordon is more interesting. I would hope there is some effort to get Bredesen to run but I'd be pretty doubtful it would be successful. Though I did always think this would be more interesting if Corker was primaried. He is one of the more reasonable Republicans.

---

by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:17:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I forgot about that.

But that was a long time ago, which explains his somewhat poor name recognition.

Why do you think Bresden cannot be lobbied? I don't know what to think either way.

By the way, I just looked at the cross tabs of the PPP poll. It has the D/R/I breakdown at 37/43/20, while the 2008 CNN exit poll from the senate race has it at 31/32/37. If someone like Bart Gordon could get around 55 percent of Independents and secure his Democratic base, he could probably win.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:35:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really based on anything but my gut

And the fact Dems never seem to get their top recruits, especially in red states. Would still try though.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:38:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I obviously have no experience

in candidate recruitment, but I'd think that when you see a promising result like this in a year with few pick up opportunities for your side, you do whatever it takes, short of anything illegal or offering your own body, to get that is leading on the ticket.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:47:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd perhaps argue Harold Ford was the strongest-possible candidate to field in '06

He would've won if not for the Playboy ad.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:16:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They gotta recruit him!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 22:10:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"So Be It"

Not quite "Yes We Can" is it?

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:32:03 PM UTC

They really, really, really, really

need to organize this into a theme of the Republicans just not giving a shit what happens to the economy. Would it fucking kill some high profile Democrat, somewhere, who isn't Nancy Pelosi or Dennis Kucinich (i.e. easily written off as a dirty hippy) to start talking about how the Republicans are going to block all sorts of measures to improve the economy only to deny Obama a second term? It can be a devastating attack if made correctly, and it has the added benefit of being absolutely true.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:38:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They have the quotes

Boehner here, McConnell etc. But part of it is also ideological.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:40:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What is ideological?

The Democratic aversion to hammering their opponents with their own words? (Kidding, sort of.)


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:43:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ideological

In the sense Republicans love cuts and hate the government whoever is president. It isn't just about beating Obama.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:45:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At least when the president is a Democrat

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:46:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, sure.

But considering that a decent chunk of senators only voted for things like the Start Treaty when they knew it would pass, which means they would have voted against it had their votes been the ones to kill it just to embarrass the president, a lot of it, perhaps most of it, is about beating Obama. It's gotten to the point where Obama could propose changing the name of the White House to the Ronald Reagan Is Awesome and Is Basically Jesus, Michael Jordan, and Brad Pitt Rolled in One House, but still face significant Republican opposition.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:50:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't be surprised to see

Paul Krugman run with that.

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by: tietack @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:46:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He has.

Krugman's been doing yeoman's work in pushing back and fighting for a liberal narrative for a long time. But he's not a politician, and I doubt most of the country knows who he is.

We need a sustained theme expressed in any possible way describing what the Republicans are doing. This is what Republicans do when they want to get a point across, and it's incredibly effective.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:52:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a golden opportunity...

For the field of 2016 candidates on the Democratic side to emerge.

If the likes of Gov. Schweitzer, Gov. O'Malley, Gov. Cuomo, Mayor Booker, etc. - any Democrat who isn't up for election next year and could mount a credible bid nationwide - start beating the drum on this, writing op-eds or making speeches or the like, I think we'll have some tea leaves to read.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 01:33:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's true, but it's also a golden

opportunity for Democrats to start talking a little more like Democrats. The Republicans have basically sent the Democrats a two-word message that reads "FUCK YOU!" when it comes to how they plan to deal with things for the next two years. (This is only slightly different, of course, than the "KISS MY FAT WHITE ASS!" message that they sent for the previous two years.) It's simply incredible for me that no Democrat is beating the drum on this. I get why President Obama isn't doing it, but he basically shouldn't be doing it. Some Democratic congressman from a safe seat who doesn't come across like Michelle Bachmann should be doing it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 03:18:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Given Cuomo's Christie-like fiscal conservatism, I'm not sure he could survive a presidential primary

Even if he saves New York from its dire financial state, he'll have done so at the expensive of alienating just about every state union and liberal special interest group out there. I could perhaps even see him garnering a primary challenge here in 2014.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 16:57:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cuomo equals Christie?

There are some similarities, sure, but much of it seems to be in vague positions and style rather than concrete beliefs.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 16:44:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well I don't know

I've been getting dozens of e-mails and tweets from the party quoting him on this, so they're definitely using it

who it reaches is another story.  

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by: DNick @ Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 02:52:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]