Kentucky

is odd--yes they have the Gov elections this Nov but legislative elections fall on the regular two year cycle. So no more legislative elections until 2012.  That being said a Gov win might marginally improve their position in redistricting.  I rather expect to see a standpat map with a slight improvement to Chandler in KY6.

Kansas actually had quite a tussle in 2001 even as the GOP was complete control.  Jim Ryun balked at taking over Douglas county and very little effort was made to dislodge Democrat in his seat.  There are people here that always expect the party in control to maximize their advantage.  That did not happen in 2001 as the GOP actually kept Morre's seat the same.  Ryun as it happened lost his seat and the state was 2D-2R for one cycle. Its now its back to 4R.  So in the GOP eyes things worked out.

Maine has a provision in state constitution that redistricting bills need a 2/3 vote so in essence its bipartisan in that state.  Lines have not really changed much since 1960.

I think we can all agree that Maryland has very smooth and fair lines.  In 2000 the voters had split Maryland 4R-4D. In an effort to better reflect the real partisan nature of the state, however, and to eliminate competitive seats a new map was drawn.  This map got the delegation to 7D-1R after the 2006/2008 elections. Its now 6D-2R and I suspect a fairer map will be drawn in 2011 that could get it back to 7D-1R.  

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 13:27:11 PM UTC

Doing a status quo...

Maryland with much more concise borders is very easy.  

MD-1: R+12 (Was R+13)
MD-2: D+10 (Was D+7)
MD-3: D+5 (Was D+6)
MD-4: D+35 (Was D+31) - 55% Black
MD-5: D+12 (Was D+11)
MD-6: R+14 (Was R+13)
MD-7: D+25 (Was D+25) - 53% Black
MD-8: D+16 (Was D+21)

The black percentages in both VRA districts are down a bit (57% and 60% previously), but this might just have been due to suburbanization of the black population.  

An even better map could have been drawn if it wasn't for Ruppersberger.  He lives directly north of Baltimore, and represents MD-2.  Given there are already two reps in Baltimore, this means you pretty much have to have three reps in the region.  It's a shame, because with one less incumbent in the region, you could split Baltimore City and County between two districts (one majority black) and then have a pretty strongly Democratic district based around Howard County.

Given how - eager - the Democrats are in Maryland to draw absolute spaghetti (honestly, just in terms of geography, it's the wost gerrymander in the country), I fully expect they'll find a way to make MD-1 competitive again.    

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by: eschaton @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:47:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kentucky, Maryland

Kentucky - The Republicans' best chance is to stall for long enough to make the courts draw the map, so KY-06 would likely remain similar to how it is now. Democrats would probably prefer to stretch KY-06 out to the Democratic counties in eastern Kentucky.

Maryland - MD-01 doesn't have to be made a safe Dem district; I've done maps that preserves the other six districts while turning MD-01 into a 54-44 Obama district, which is good enough for a Kratovil comeback. I doubt Harris could survive in a swing district, and the rest of the Republican bench on the Eastern Shore isn't that impressive.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:03:43 PM UTC

MD-1

I think you will see Hartford County moved from the 1st to the 6th, this will put Harris & Roscoe in the same district and probably make the 1st a dem leaning swing district without gutting the eastern shore/bay focus. I've heard there is serious resistance among the Dems in the legistlature to either split the ES or put a significant portion of Baltimore city into it (thus moving the balance of power to the city).

I think the likely outcome will be to pack the 6th (by adding the aforementioned Hartford County & Balmer county areas that lean GOP) and consolidate the 1st around the bay (maybe takings some of southern MD from the 5th to get the appropriate population numbers?)

This would almost certainly result in a Dem pickup in '12, but perhaps a GOPer more like former rep Wayne Gilcrest in future elections...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:43:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maryland

A good map would be a 7-1 map that left an opening if Bartlett gets killed by Mooney, which he is gearing up to do anyway.

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by: MrTuba @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 19:45:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I posted a diary awhile ago

 On a 7-1 Maryland map that hopefully works and pleases all the Democrats. http://swingstateproject.com/d...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 00:08:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

VA & KY Congressional map delay

I'm not sure why the GOP seems to be leaning toward trying to push congressional redistricting into '12. In both cases I don't see the return being worth the risk, do they really think they can cut out Ben Chandler or Gerry Connolly? They can likely shore up all their incumbents (including the 3 freshmen in VA) without risking the fallout from a Nuclear Option redistricting punt.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:46:03 PM UTC

I don't understand why, as you've said

they want to keep VA-11 a swing district. Do they really want to endanger VA-10 by doing that? For what, to have whoever runs in 2012 lose to Connolly, since whatever district he gets will undoubtedly be carried by Obama by a pretty decent margin?

As for Kentucky, the Republicans gain nothing by letting the Democrats shore up KY-06. If they stall and keep it the same, they can keep trying to go after Chandler. The four Republican-held districts are not going to elect a Democrat anytime soon.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 16:32:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My sense is that

the GOP will push a standpat map.  KY3 is apparently not happening so just keep everything stagnant.

That might not dislodge Chandler but he is likely to seek statewide office some day.  He votes like a republican on many issues so why rock the boat?

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:07:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Louisiana Redistricting Control

Just a quick note on this, Democrats control the State Senate but are tied 19-19 after a few party switches, notably longtime state Sen. John Alario.

Republicans won an open seat race 2 weeks ago to replace an independent state senator. Democrats didn't even field a candidate in the ancestrally Democratic seat, despite having a huge wealth of candidates to draw from.

The other open seat is another ancestrally Democratic seat east of Lafayette in the heart of cajun country. However, like much of south Louisiana, this seat is rapidly changing.

Of the 8 state house seats that overlap this district, 4 are controlled by Democrats, 3 by Republicans and 1 by an Independent.

One of the Republican state reps is the main GOP candidate. In the house, he represents much of the rural, lightly populated coastal part of Vermillion Parish, the only parish fully located in the 26th senate district.

The Democrat in the race is a member of the Vermillion Parish Police Jury and an owner of a oilfield services company.

Currently, I think the Democrat in the race has a pretty good shot at holding this, although polling has been all over the place. He's a self-funder and has the strong support of Buddy Leach.

Here's hoping the Ds hold this seat come Feb. 19

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

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by: sschmi4 @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:48:14 PM UTC

thanks for the local insight

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:52:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're the first person

to say that Dems have a decent shot at that seat.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 19:28:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Money

It is true, when Nick Gautreaux left, Republicans thought they finally had their path to 20 seats in the Senate, giving them control for the first time since Reconstruction.

However, Nathan Granger, the Democrat in this race, has poured a TON of money into it (Raised 60k, put in another 220k of his own money). Granger has $170k COH as well.

He has already spent an incredible amount of money in this race, and in these low information elections, that makes the difference. I will say, the Ds are also helped by the jungle primary for municipal elections that occur the same day.

I think with Buddy Caldwell's switch last week, Buddy Leach wants to show that Dems are still part of the equation here in Louisiana.

One more thing I will say, a LOT of Republicans in the state legislature aren't that conservative when compared with other states. Surprising, I know, when considering it's Louisiana.

Additionally, the GOP candidate is one of THE most conservative in the house, and it should be interesting to see if the how the Blue Dog brand goes up against a Tea Partier in one of the ancestral homes for Democrats in the US.

There aren't many places more representative of Cajun country and coastal Louisiana than Vermillion Parish.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

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by: sschmi4 @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 21:41:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You said

polling was all over the place?  Can you cite a few?

BTW, thanks for this inside info.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:25:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah, found them

http://www.theind.com/news/774...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:48:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who is Buddy Leach?

And why are so many older guys there nicknamed "Buddy"?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:45:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Best Buddies

Buddy Leach is the chairman of the Louisiana Democratic Party.

And I never noticed the wealth of buddies we have down here: Buddy Leach, Attorney General Buddy Caldwell and fmr Gov and possible Presidential candidate Buddy Roemer.

Now to be fair, none of their real first names are Buddy, they all just like the name.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

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by: sschmi4 @ Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:28:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Played around a bit...

With Kentucky vote totals outside of DRA.  I'm pretty sure a district could be drawn for Chandler (mostly trading counties with KY-5) which improves his PVI from R+10 to R+6 or so (which is fairly safe for a conservative Democrat).  Given I didn't look at Kerry vote totals when I was calculating PVI, it's plausible the district would be a bit safer than that.  

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by: eschaton @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 14:51:09 PM UTC

I drew this map a while back

Which turns KY-06 into about a 51-48 McCain district:

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 16:30:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LA 5 Will Go Southwest?

Do you mean into Lafayette or Lake Charles? Really? But those would be in Boustany's district, wouldn't they? 5 needs a ton of population as every parish in the NE part of the state other than Ouachita lost population.

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by: armand @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 15:24:48 PM UTC

Someone noted on another thread

that Maryland's data has been released for 2010 census.

I have not studied it up but I do note that Montgomery county is now 49% white.  The hispanic, asian and AA population in this county has soared.  

Baltimore city lost 30K while DC suburbs gained.

I think there are now three minority majority seats in Maryland. The two AA members and Van Hoellen's seat

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 21:20:50 PM UTC