Redistricting outlook: Alabama-Arkansas

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and I’ll go alphabetically, starting with Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas.

The rest below the fold…

Alabama

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Districts: 7

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? No

Don’t expect too much drama in Alabama, as Republicans seek an incumbent protection map that ensures no Democrat getting elected in the 2nd (represented by Martha Roby) or 3rd (Mike Rogers). The 7th remains a VRA-protected black-majority district, and the only Democratic stronghold in the state.

Arizona

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Districts: 9, up from 8 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? Oh, yes

Whenever a nonpartisan commission is involved, most (but not all) bets are off. Both Hispanic-majority VRA districts — the 4th, represented by Ed Pastor, and Raul Grijalva’s 7th — will have to be kept majority-minority, and the weird lines in northern Arizona separating the Hopi (in Trent Franks’ 2nd) from the Navajo (in Paul Gosar’s 1st) will remain. But the commission is under no obligation to protect incumbents, and that goes for Gosar, Grijalva, Giffords, Quayle, Schweikert, and anyone else who may face trouble in the next decade. In any case, most observers predict a new GOP seat in the Phoenix area, since Democratic areas are sufficiently concentrated in the 4th and much of the state’s population growth has occurred in conservative suburban Maricopa County.

My prediction: Republicans +1, all things being equal. Multiple incumbent defeats are, however, very possible depending on the new lines.

Arkansas

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Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Probably not

While Democrats have the redistricting trifecta in Arkansas as they did not in 2002, I cannot imagine them exploiting it particularly well. The trends in this state are as plain as the nose on your face, and Democrats know from rising GOP fortunes both within the Natural State and within all its neighboring states that their days in power are numbered. If anything, they may attempt to strengthen Mike Ross’ 4th District, the only blue seat, but I don’t see them working to dislodge Tim Griffin or Rick Crawford, both of whom represent districts that just ten years ago were considered reliably and ancestrally Democratic. It’s not easy being a Democrat in the South, particularly not the slow-growing Old South consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, et al.

In the next edition: California, Colorado, and Connecticut.

30 thoughts on “Redistricting outlook: Alabama-Arkansas”

  1. The Delta is where the Democrats are and that’s what he needs. Otherwise, he has to lose Pine Bluff and take on Fort Smith, which could be problematic and Ross will have some say as the only Democrat in the delegation. AR-2 doesn’t have to be tinkered with much, because the right Democrat can win it.

  2. Ark 3 will need to lose 70,000 or so, with Ark 1 and 4 picking up the population. Ark 2 will stay the same. Ark 3 being the most rep district, anyway you cut it, these new voters in Ark 1 and 4 will make them marginally more republican whitch means Crawford should be a little better off and Ross seat stays dem until he runs for gov. at whitch time a rep will be favored.

  3. and doing this thread.  Here’s my quick take on these states.

    AR:    AR4 picks up two Delta counties and becomes slightly more democratic.  AR2 stays more or less the same.  AR1 picks up two GOP leaning counties from AR3.  AR2 might still be winnable if a conservative democrat is nominated.  AR1 moves several % to the right and still could be had by a conservative democrat but its harder.  I personally think the GOP incumbents will be hard to beat in AR under any circumstance other then slicing up AR4.

    AZ AZ7 will probably lose Yuma county and become more hispanic/democratic.  AZ8 will probably be slightly less democratic it sheds a few precincts to AZ7.  The New seat will probably be North Maricopa unless my idea of a Pinal/Rural/wee bit suburban  seat carved out AZ1 & AZ6 comes up.  Call me strange but I can’t justify carving up Pinal county three ways.  

    AL The 2002 plan by a democratic ploy to elect a democratic congressman in AL3.  I believe the previous plan-1990 version had a plunge into Montgomery county.  Ironically AL3 stayed democratic but AL2 did not.  I think we see the lines connecting Birmingham and Montgomery return in 2011.  I still look for 6-1 GOP

  4. has a good chance of ending up with another district that voted for Obama (or came extremely close in 2010). While it’s secondary to communities of interest, commissioners are supposed to consider competitiveness to an extent. And while, yes, the most rapid growth has been in the Republican exburbs, the fact that Arizona is now only gaining one seat and that these exburbs are pretty far apart geographically means that purple/blue urban/suburban areas will be effected as well. A lot of people take for granted things like the fact that Obama won AZ-05 south of the Salt River (i.e. everything but Scottsdale, Fountain Hills & the rural areas), or that the mostly white parts of northern AZ-04 & southern AZ-03 are trending Democratic faster than almost anywhere in the state. Yes, it’s definitely a Republican-leaning state, but the fundamentals for Republicans aren’t always as strong as they appear at first glance.

    Specifically, I think that if the current AZ-05 loses Scottsdale/Fountain Hills (a reasonable possibility) and picks up purple areas of western Mesa, Hispanic areas of downtown Mesa and the rest of Chandler to take population pressure off of AZ-06, then all of the sudden you have a compact, community-of-interest friendly 50-50 district.

    Another possibility is that AZ-03 (or the new district, but Quayle would live here) is based in central Phoenix and eats up the white liberal parts of AZ-04 along with the Dem trending parts of AZ-03 south of the Phoenix Mountain Preserve (which is roughly the dividing line in the city of Phoenix proper between the parts of the city that feel urban in some sense and the parts that feel suburban and are only part of Phoenix and not independent suburbs because off Arizona’s nutty annexation and incorporation laws).

    Hard to say though, I think 6-3 is a reasonable prediction of where we’ll be in 2012, it’s just not the only possible one. As usually, Republican predictions that they’re going to lock in all their gains and yet somehow still churn out a bunch of new seats is far-fetched.

  5. Protect Mike Ross, and create a district with Little Rock and Democratic parts of the 1st.

    Actually, here’s what I just scrounged up and put together:

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    So, a few points of blue towards Mike Ross. A district Obama won in Little Rock, without 2 highly conservative counties + some Obama counties to the east. And, I even put in Fayetteville to the first just in case that college town moves in a blue direction over the next 10 years. What do you think?

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