Few thoughts

What about Ken Calvert? You could list him as "Failed right-wing blog 'scalp' attempt," with the hope that they might actually take him out at some point lat... okay, enough with the jokes. But if he winds up under investigation, too, then who knows?

Cubin should be regarded as "potential primary challenge," ala Schmitty. I think you have to consider both ID-01 and ID-02 as potential senate runs.

Here's a Gallegly link.

With Schauer now in the race, is there any chance that Schwarz figures his best way back in the game (should he want back in) would be to primary Walberg? Any Prairie Staters want to chime in on this unlikely theory of mine?

Cook lists a few dudes not on this list.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 04:08:23 AM UTC

P.S.

Carson is a notable drop from this list.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 04:14:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joe Schwarz

It's tough to say what Joe Schwarz might do. The one reason I at least respected him as a Republican (and even liked him, from time to time) was that he's really his own man. He's an independent thinker and can surprise people a lot of the time.

That said, I don't think he'll run for Congress, and I don't think he'd do it in a GOP primary challenge if he did. I've got no super-secret information to back that up, it's just a gut feeling. I think he knows that with Jim Berryman in the race (an old friend) and Mark Schauer in the race (also a friend, as I understand it), he'll be heavily courted by both of them, and if either is the nominee, he'll probably be an active campaigner against Walberg. But I don't think he'll run for public office again.

Of course, I was absolutely certain a few months ago that Mark Schauer was waiting until 2010 to run for governor. So I'm wrong a lot.

Supposing he did run in the GOP primary, I'm not sure how he'd win it. Walberg would have the party machinery and the Club for Growth on his side, while Schwarz would only have whatever coalition he could put together on his own. Moderate Republicans just didn't get out and vote in the last primary, and I don't know what he could do to make it work this time. He can't count on cross-over Democrats if the Schauer-Berryman-Renier race heats up.

The only path to victory that I see would be if there were another GOP primary challenger, too, who would challenge from the right and split that base. But how do you find someone to the right of Tim Walberg?

(On a similar note, respected Michigan journalist Jack Lessenberry interviewed Schwarz not to long ago about the possibility of switching parties. In his essay afterwards, he basically said that Schwarz would do better staying in the GOP and trying to fix the party from within. I haven't got any idea whether Schwarz puts any weight on Lessenberry's words, but it's interesting.)

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by: Fitzy @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 05:28:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two things

#1 - if Jindal is elected Governor, expect a special election by March 2008

#2 - Cubin has missed a lot of votes so far, and if she runs, she will probably lose a primary

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by: RBH @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 04:29:32 AM UTC

Il-14

Hastert's district leans Dem?  Should I be shocked? Or is that  a typo?

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by: countmippipopolous @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 04:41:42 AM UTC

My bad.

Should've been an R there, not a D.

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by: James L. @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 11:21:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

CT-04: Shays Chief of Staff accuses Courant of "Twisting" His Words

Chris Shays' chief of staff is now saying he didn't threaten to retire, and blaming the press for reporting it.

More at MLN.

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by: tparty @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 16:39:02 PM UTC

IL-11

Although Jerry Weller has not shown any previous indication of retirement, recent bombshell developments about his unethical behavior- two articles in the Chicago Tribune and one article rating him amongst the "22 most corrupt members of Congress"- and his curious silence thereafter might hint at a retirement for Weller. IL-11 has a PVI of R+1 so its a pure swing district.

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by: AC4508 @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 18:11:50 PM UTC

Watch out for BOTH CO-6 and CO-5

Tancredo might decide he's better off (financially as well as ego-wise) being an immigration gadfly and talking head than he is as one out of 435 members of Congress. Lamborn has raised nothing and is looking at getting crushed in a primary. Very good chances he quits. Neither one, sadly, would produce a serious chance for a Democrat.

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by: ColoDem @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 21:00:54 PM UTC

Recommendation

It just occured to me how visually enriched this table could be if you made the D for Democrat blue and the R for Republican red, to make it easier to see, and it would point out when Republicans are in Democratic Districts and vise versa. 

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 23:48:46 PM UTC