I'm suprised about this one ...

I lived in Minneapolis during the first bit of Jim Ramstad's stint in Congress, and as far as Republicans go I rather like  him.  He was pretty moderate on most social issues, and a good and decent guy.  If most Republicans were like him things would be a lot better!! BUT ..... this does give us one of the best opportunities in the whole country -- I think this might be similar to the suburban Denver seat we picked up last year.  If the Reps nominate someone like Ramstad to run I think it will be a toss-up, and if they are stupid enough to nominate a Club-for-Growth type, we should have the advantage.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 15:09:06 PM CDT

A couple of things

This is a great pickup opportunity for National Democrats and Minnesota Democrats. 

Ramstad wasn't on the radar for retirement, it just goes to show how unexpected some of these incoming announcements are going to be. 

I'm loving it. 

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 15:34:30 PM CDT

Definitely.

In fact, Pickering, Pryce and now Ramstad were not even on SSP's retirement watch lists.  Who knows where the next bombshell will land?

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 15:37:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's what I came in here to ask.

The meta-question: who, if anyone, saw Ramstad's retirement coming, what might his reasons for retiring have been, and what does this portend for future retirements?

I don't know any of the answers.  Although the quoted parts of his press conference were that he was tired, and that he thinks there will be many more retirements.

Not bad.  If a bunch of older, statesman-like Republicans retire, and the GOP nominates firebreathers in their primaries, and this all goes down in districts that haven't been seriously contested in many cycles...

Well, the 06 examples of that were Jim Kolbe, Sherry Boehlert, Joel Hefley... and that's it.  We went 2 for 3 in those races, and the two were easy easy wins.  The GOP primary alone delivered Kolbe's seat to us.

Mark Green, Jim Nussle, Bob Beauprez, Butch Otter, Tom Osborne, and Katherine Harris all left behind open seats, but they were all young movement conservatives seeking a promotion.  Movement conservatives were nominated to replace them.  We went 4 for 6 in those races (I count Christine Jennings as a win).  Five of those six people lost their statewide bids too.  Haha losers.

Of the three races we lost -- Hefley, Otter, and Osborne -- all three were more interesting than they should have been, and in all three cases it was because of the Club for Growth.  We only came close in Otter's district though.

There was one more group of open seats: retirements due to age or scandal, of movement conservatives.  Henry Hyde, Duke Cunningham, Mark Foley, Tom DeLay, Bob Ney.  In cases where the GOP had time to run a full primary and get an honest clean start, they won.  (Hyde, Cunningham)  In the cases where there were no primary and sometimes even the ballot-line was compromised, they lost... but they barely lost the Foley and DeLay seats even under awful circumstances.  If you count Negron and DraculaCunt Gibbs as winners -- and they damn near were, especially when you look at how much they overperformed their circumstances -- then we only got one good win out of this group of five.  If you don't buy that, then we won 3 of 5.

Unfortunately for me, grouping the open seats this way -- according to what kind of Republican held it, and what the reason for their leaving was -- doesn't help predict or explain the outcome as well as just looking at the underlying partisan character of the district.  If you go back through these groups, the frigging PVI has as much or more explanatory power, as trying to understand what kind of incumbent left the seat, and what kind of candidate was nominated to replace them.  Especially if you look at only PVI and whether there was a full primary and clean ballot access, you can predict the outcomes fairly well without considering anything else.

Or, more accurately: the circumstances around the race only matter after the PVI.  Ramstad and Boehlert help us, Hefley does not, even though it's the same underlying forces driving all three retirements.

In that case, here's hoping the "elder statesman is sick of it" dynamic brings us more retirements, and here's hoping they're in swing districts that can do us some good.

Here's also hoping the "moderate Republican is sick of fighting their ass off for reelection" dynamic continues to operate.  It's brought us Pryce and maybe Shays, but I can't think of anyone else who is likely to just get annoyed and give up. 

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by: texas dem @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 17:38:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

bravo, good analysis, n/t

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by: Christopher Walker @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 10:26:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

WOOO!

Can I just say, it's an amazing time to be a Democrat in Minnesota.

Last election we got rid of 2 GOP'ers who hold constitutional offices, got Tim Walz, Amy Klobuchar, 6 new state Senator and 19, yes 19, new DFL'ers in the state house.

Bachmann was of course sad and Pawlenty near squeaker pissed me off but, WOOOOOOOO!!!!

Within one week's time, one of the top tier challengers in District 6 announces his candidacy to take out Bachmann and Ramstad's district is easily one of the TOP pick-up opportunities.  Only Pryce's seat is a better pick-up chance.

Hopefully after 2008 we'll see only John Kline left representing the GOP in Congress and even his district is almost a swing district.  7/8 House and 2/2 Senate, holy crap. 

It almost makes me scared, too much dominance leaves us with only place left to go, down.....

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 16:54:20 PM CDT

Ramstad's Seat Maybe....

.....Coleman's seat potentially....but Kline's seat vulnerable?  I highly doubt it.  It's far from a swing district.  In 2002, it was even better for Republicans than MN-06.

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by: Mark @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 18:02:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not to mention a popular incumbent lost that race.

Granted he was a redistricted incumbent, but still.  That incumbent (Bill Luther) only got 42% in the district, and Coleen Rowley only got 40% in 06.

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by: texas dem @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 18:06:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

PVI

I was basing it being a swing district off of its PVI which is R4, actually that was higher than I thought.  And that doesnt take into account the 2004 elections, wups guess I'm wrong, :)

It still isnt the most republican district in the state, Collin Peterson's is with a PVI of R7 or R8. 

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 20:10:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

MN-07's GOP Margin....

....was, like many rural districts, artificially inflated in the last two Presidential elections.  The district certainly leans Republican even in a Democratic year, but in every non-Presidential race in recent memory, the margins between the DFL and GOP candidates are much more competitive in MN-07 than MN-06.

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by: Mark @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 00:17:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I missed it.

Who declared in the MN-06?

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by: texas dem @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 18:03:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The guy was going to run for Senate and changed

his mind.  His name is Bill Hope or Bob Hope?  I don't remember.  I could have sworn it was one of those two though. 

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 18:36:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A couple are already in...

...Bob Hill and some other guy.  But Elwyn Tinklenberg, who ran in the primary last cycle and lost to Wetterling, seems to be gearing up for another run.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 18:43:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hill, right

I didn't think Hope was right but nothing else was coming to mind.  Thanks. 

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 19:57:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tinklenberg Announced Last Week.....

.....and my rudimentary knowledge of him suggests he could be a contender.  Unfortunately, I think we need at least one more high-profile act of moonbatism from Bachmann between now and the election if we're gonna be able to convince these uber-conservative voters to trade up for a Democrat.  That's certainly possible, but the Democratic candidate probably has no chance of winning here without a little help from their opponent.

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by: Mark @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 20:01:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bob Olson

You guys are thinking of Bob Olson.  He announced for Senate, dropped out of the Senate race, switched his primary address to Bachmann's district and is in that race.  It's kind of sad now that the 3rd has opened up, he just switched addresses from the 3rd to the 6th to face Bachmann instead of an open seat.  He is a horrible candidate anyway.

Bob Hill has been in the race for a little while.

Elwyn Tinklenberg is the guy I was talking about.  He is a great recruit, a very moderate Democrat, pro-life, anti gay marriage (the district is quite socially conservative) and his war positions are pretty shaky.  But, that is the type of Democrat that can win the 6th.

Taryl Clark may also run.  She is the state senator for St. Cloud, the largest city in the 6th.  Assistant majority leader in the senate, liberal I believe, would be a very tier 1 candidate.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 20:15:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So Ramstad's retiring...

but how likely would his seat flip to Democratic?

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by: Gatenmaru @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 17:34:55 PM CDT

50-50....

....it would take a "centrist" Democrat in the mold of Amy Klobuchar, someone who rails against the war but refrains from populist rhetoric that could be demagogued as "class warfare".  An oft-cited name as a potentially strong Democratic nominee is Buck Humphrey, grandson of Hubert and losing candidate for Secretary of State in 2002.  Frankly, I'm not sure the Humphrey name warrants the level of nostalgia that it used to, particularly in this largely youthful district.  The would-be frontrunner would have been Judi Dutcher, but her political career ended after the E-85 kerfuffle in last fall's gubernatorial race.  If the GOP nominates another moderate from the Ramstad fold, their chances will be good, particularly on the coattails of Norm Coleman who I expect to do well here.  But if they nominate someone ideological closer to John Kline or Michele Bachmann, the Democrat is most certainly favored.

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by: Mark @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 17:57:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

so populist

Democratic rhetoric doesn't go over well in this mostly wealthy, suburban district? A shame. There are many places I think it woul ove better than what our current Democrats campaign as. Still, I wouldn't even think about calling Klobuchar a centrist; she has one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 19:21:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Judi Dutcher

It's kind of a shame she had such a gaffe.  I really liked her.  She would've been incredible for the district.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 20:12:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Re Tinklenberg

Andrew sez:  Elwyn Tinklenberg is the guy I was talking about.  He is a great recruit, a very moderate Democrat, pro-life, anti gay marriage (the district is quite socially conservative) and his war positions are pretty shaky.  But, that is the type of Democrat that can win the 6th.

Lloydletta:  Actually Tinklenberg is all over the map on social-issue positions.  Initially at his first press conference when he announced in 2006, he said he supported the federal constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.  Then he's said he supports civil unions.  The thing is that federal constitutional amendment - as written, would ban civil unions as well - on a federal level.  Michele Bachmann, his opponent, is known for her single minded zeal pushing a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage and legal equivalents - to the point that many people knew of this as the Bachmann amendment.  She would say things like gays are after your children, and her husband has a therapy clinic that does pray away the gay therapy.  So Bachmann is nationally known among political gay people.  If Tinklenberg holds the same position as Bachmann on that issue, there's no reason to contribute or work for him.  Bachmann is an ineffective house member, who is good at campaigning. 

Bob Olson is more fiscally conservative than Tinklenberg.  I understand that Tinklenberg supports the 5 cent a gallon gas tax promoted by Jim Oberstar.  That works in Oberstar's district, but will be very unpopular in the 6th - and will allow Bachmann to make the campaign about taxes. 

The theocrats, and the single issue anti-legal-abortion voters will vote for Michele Bachmann.  Cross-over republican voters are pro-choice.  Jesse Ventura - who did very well in that district was pro-choice, and had no problem with gay marriage during a debate in 1998. 

I've been covering the 6th district for quite a while at Dump Michele Bachmann. 

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by: lloydletta @ Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 23:09:49 PM CDT

The Race after Ramstad

What a great opportunity!  The Republicans will be replacing a moderate icon like Ramstad with a true-red pro-life conservative as a candidate while the democrats should be able to field an articulate moderate in a democratic year in a blueing district.

Now if we can just avoid blowing it!  Please Bill Luther, please Buck Humphrey, don't run!

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by: st paul sage @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 11:28:53 AM CDT