Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings

by: DavidNYC

Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 8:08 PM EDT


We'll post a final House ratings chart soon. For now, here are our latest changes:

  • CA-20: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • GA-02: Lean D to Tossup
  • GA-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • IA-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • ME-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • MN-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • MS-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • NH-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • NM-01: Lean D to Tossup
  • OH-18: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-27: Likely D to Lean D
  • WI-03: Likely D to Lean D

All of these moves favor Republicans.
DavidNYC :: SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings | 195 comments
MS-02? Really?
Now that's just being silly.
Have any polls been published here?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Marcy released an internal
showing a dead heat (42-41). It looked pretty sketchy to me.

[ Parent ]
It had strange racial assumptions
The district is among the most racially polarized in the country, at 64-35 black and 66-33 Obama. The poll assumes that racial turnout will be 50/50 (which would mean a tossup race) but there is no evidence that the assumption is even close to accurate. I expect turnout to be about 60/40, which means Marcy would need to win 17% of blacks in addition to all the whites. In other words, not gonna happen.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Likely D means just that.
I don't think playing it cautious is silly at all, especially since it still greatly favors Thompson.
[ Parent ]
Right
"Likely D" or "Likely R" simply means that an upset cannot be ruled out. It's a low threshold.
[ Parent ]
BOOOOOO . . .


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
Well
I wish there was some kind of positive news here in the final day or two but I guess that's not going to happen.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Unfortunate but not surprising.
Election day is here and there hasn't been any swing back towards the Democrats. Outside a handful of races where the polling got better the rest of the country has stayed where it was (pretty bad) or gotten worse. This list could probably be longer with races shifting towards the GOP. Remember 06'? Towards the end even guys like Kyl were thought of as vulnerable. As the consquences of the national trend started being felt on indivdual races, one saw more and more "safe" or "likely" Rs slipping into the vulnerable terrority.  
CA-20 and GA-02.
Just can't see either of those as 50/50 at this point. The Dems are favored at least to some degree there.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
CA20
CA20 is, at least in the news, suffering from a dearth of water.  Blame has been assigned to the US preventing further diversion of water on court decisions protecting some kind of fish.  

California has overallocated its water resources, which hurts in a drought.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
PPP posted their PA-SEN numbers
Toomey 51, Sestak 46

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

don't have access to internal polling
but Iowa Democrats don't seem too worried about Braley now. Unbelievably, if one of the Ds loses on Tuesday it may be Loebsack.

I just went and looked at the returned absentee ballot numbers by Iowa county as of October 29 (morning). In IA-01, county auditors had received 26,301 ballots from Democrats, 19,322 ballots from Republicans and 10,974 ballots from no-party voters. Satellite voting locations were open on Friday and Saturday, and I'm sure lots more mailed ballots came in, but the Secretary of State's office doesn't plan to update the numbers by county again before the election.

Naw:
I don't think Loebsack will lose. He's in the most Democratic district in Iowa. And he's fairly popular there, isn't he?
[ Parent ]
it's the most Democratic district (D+7)
but he has the most capable Republican opponent, and she has self-funded w/ about $500K. Pockets of his district also have the highest unemployment in Iowa.

I don't think he will lose--early voting is very strong for Democrats in Johnson County (Iowa City area), and a 21-only bar ordinance on the ballot in Iowa City has U of Iowa pushed student turnout way above the normal level for a midterm election. But there's no question the race is close. The DCCC has been up on tv for the last three weeks, all negative on Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Loebsack's final spot is positive, but before that he was running negative ads too. I think they were truly worried.

[ Parent ]
Speaking Of Iowa.....
Wasn't Roxanne Conlin's ability to self-finance supposedly the Democrats' secret weapon this year?  And if so, why have we only been seeing her TV ads for the last few days?
[ Parent ]
she's been running ads since September
but not heavy ad buys like Grassley. She has self-financed (about $1 million), but realistically she probably needed to put in a lot more, and even then it would have been a really tough slog in a year like this.

All of Grassley's previous opponents combined never raised even $1 million. Conlin will spend around $3 million by the time it's all over, but that wasn't enough.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
If IA-2 is close, Loebsack will really have 21-only to thank. There are tons of people who otherwise would not have voted, but pulled the lever for Loebsack.

Hopefully we can just keep putting the ordinance on the ballot during each midterm/presidential election...

I don't think Loebsack is especially popular. I am a progressive Democrat, and I don't like him much. He comes off (to me) as arrogant and uncaring about the district--I really wouldn't be surprised to see him lose. Miller-Meeks is pretty nice, but hopefully has been exposed for the conservative she really is..

[ Parent ]
IowaCityDem
Just wanted to invite you to post your Iowa election predictions in Bleeding Heartland's contest.
[ Parent ]
Not sure GA-2 is a tossup
A district that is 44% Black is difficult for a Republican to win. Bishop hadn't had real trouble since the district was 60% and even then, he still won. The only polls out are from Republican firms, not sure how accurate they are.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Scandal
I expect him passing out CBC scholarships to family rather than poor people in his district is likely to have caused a hit to his support.  Some people just may not vote for him, even if they don't vote for the GOP candidate.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I guess that it really
is Halloween so we get the tricks and Republicans get the treats...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
At least
At least nobody has to smell anybody's feet. :)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Think that I am about to unplug after tonight...
I have already pretty much stopped looking at the national/cable news and newspapers.  I am going to do a complete unplug now.  I will miss you guys and I have  have learned a whole lot about CD's, polls, and polling from you.  I have enjoyed the conversation.

But I don't want to hear, as Nate says, the numerous ways that the media can pat the Republicans on their back for their massive win. I don't want to hear Democrats bash each other so I will just tune it all out.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

Really?
I never watch TV news and don't read daily newspapers, but I'm a stats/sociological junkie and enjoy elections just from this standpoint. I'll likely disengage big time after the election, though.

Learning about the results as they come in at the site like this is perfect for me.

That said, I wouldn't be able to check in until about 7:30PM on the west coast on Tuesdays, as I'll be teaching a class during the early evening when the east coast results come in.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
yes I guess that
I really am a wimp and maybe should not get invested. I guess that I worry what this says about us...  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Don't worry about anybody but yourself...
Because that's the majority of the rest of folks are doing.  It makes you a sucker to be doing otherwise.  When you have hundreds of millions of secret money flooding in to convince people to vote against their own interests - it's time to throw in the towel.  

You focus on helping them, they're focused on helping themselves - they get ahead and laugh as they leave you behind.  

(Yes I have been drinking tonight and am depressed as shit.)

[ Parent ]
The moderators will prevent too much bashing from going on here
Avoid sites like DailyKos.This site is all about the numbers. And win or lose, there is another election in 2012, with assorted smaller elections in 2011. This site will cover all the campaigns, large or small. If you know about a local race for Dogcatcher, this is the place to post a diary or comment about it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Hell go to Kos now...
Everything is sunshine and rainbows.  However a minute after the polls close it will be a vipers nest of Progressives blaming Dems for not being progressive enough, living in their echo chamber.
[ Parent ]
Actually, the tone I get from there tonight
is of desperate denial. It's depressing me. But there's one thing they're dead right about: Everyone should vote. It's a duty.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Is it really that bad?
There are A LOT of people posting there, so perhaps it's just the prolific ones who aren't facing reality.

Some people might think I am in denial because I think the Democrats can hold the House, but I don't. It wouldn't surprise me if they did, because they have certain advantages that aren't being focused on, but at the same time, if they lose, I wouldn't be shocked.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think that's OK because DailyKos institutionally has a very different role from SSP......
DailyKos makes helping Democrats in elections and furthering the Democratic policy agenda its primary functions.  And it's a primary vehicle for outsiders (e.g., interest groups and elected officals and party and campaign people) reaching activist Democrats and serving as a community for them.

SSP frankly is less that than a more sober-minded discussion of campaigns.  There's rarely any agenda pursued by SSP as an insitution.  There was the effort to help Scott McAdams, but that's unusual.

DailyKos is a rally on the Mall.

SSP is a think tank conference at a local hotel.

Both serve important roles in the political mission of the Democratic Party.

And right before an election, DailyKos is going to be cheerleading for the Democratic Party.  If it doesn't do that, what good is it?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
DailyKos is less interesting
than it was during the 2004 and 2006 cycles. The level of discourse had already deteriorated in 2008 and got worse this year. I don't mind some cheerleading, but there's too much shouting down of Obama critics.
[ Parent ]
Kos
From a conservative perspective, I largely agree.  It was an insightful read during that time period.  Lack of power tends to be good for the media figures, Rush et al are probably minting money now.  

In addition to that, Kos had an angle other sites lacked and was unique.  Now it seems like mindless cheerleading and denial--want to read about how the pundits have been so focused on VA-2, 5, 9, and 11 that they missed the real endangered incumbent in Virgina, Eric Cantor?, the unrecognized brilliance of the Aquabuddha and Taliban Dan ads?--Kos is the place to go.  

[ Parent ]
What in the world do you mean "shouting down of Obama critics"???......
Criticism of Obama has run rampant there forever and a day.  Really for his entire first 2 years.

And there is no moral authority for criticism of a Democratic President to go unchallenged on a partisan Democratic site.  Especially when so many of the criticisms are ad hominem attacks or poorly informed, as they are.  It's not as if the critiques of the President there are intellectually honest; they by and large are not.  The criticisms there amount to little more than a circular firing squad in tough times.  There's a lot of left-wing demand of ideological and policy purity over there, and Obama's inability to offer that in governance, in a country that simply doesn't want that, is what irks the critics.

The circular firing squad that dominated DailyKos on every topic for so long only helped put us in this pickle in the midterms.  Republicans don't do this to each other.  They truly hang together because they know they otherwise will hang separately.

We got all the attacks on Obama and Reid and so many individual Democratic House members and Senators, all for less-than-pure leftist governance, and for all that what we get is to hang separately on Tuesday.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
So, blame the left?
You can think whatever you want, but the failure was much more in policy than in unity of messaging (i.e., the stimulus was too small--and the end of the story once the the concept of stimulus itself was allowed to be falsely discredited).
[ Parent ]
It was too small, but not because the Dems
chose for it to be too small. They needed two Republican votes at the time, and given the edge of the cliff the economy was teetering on, they couldn't play hardball and hold out from more.  

No matter what the GOP did to obstruct, it was always the Democrats fault, Obama's fault.  Always.

So the Obama Administration and Congress was always getting it from both sides. Nobody had their back, nobody offered safe harbor.

Liberals love criticizing Democrats because they feel that makes them better than Republicans who have the 11th commandment.  

[ Parent ]
And some of the harshest Obama critics...
Who have shit on anything Obama Administration for the last two years are screaming about getting out the vote now.  

It's actually quite humorous, but don't dare point it out because that's "not helping".  

Maybe if Obama wasn't attacked by the left for the last two years the Dems would have strength to run on their accomplishments as they'd be cemented as positive pieces of legislation.  

There is a cabal that think that if they attack anything and everything as not good enough then they're helping to move the "Overton Window" to the left. It was completely flawed and had the exact opposite effect, but it got some of them on television.    

[ Parent ]
desmoinesdem posts at myDD which went full-on PUMA
towards the end of the 2008 primaries. That should explain why she thinks DK is too pro-Obama. They recently had a front page post entitled Chocolate Carter.  
[ Parent ]
I find it refreshing and hilarious
There is always at least one completely denial-based diary on the rec list.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I pretty much stopped going there
tired of all those. There are still some nice small communities at DKos, like The Grieving Room and IGTNT, but I don't normally stop by to look at the rec list anymore.
[ Parent ]
I like
I like to go there and mix it up in the I/P threads. :)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
But Kos himself is still pretty good...
His political commentaries can be pretty insightful. For example, I remember almost as soon as Rubio got in the race, Kos said Crist would never win the Republican primary against him, while most pundits were suggesting Rubio would drop out soon.

Kos and Steve S. are the only commentators I read regularly on the site anymore.  

[ Parent ]
Kos
I often find his posts interesting and the hate mail he gets is hilarious.  He seemed to have a total man-crush on Crist, though, and was pushing for Meek to drop out long past the point that it was realistic.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Kos loved Aqua Buddha and Taliban Dan
Hated Gibb's attack on the "professional left" and it was lost on him that the Jon Stewart closing speech at his rally was talking to him just as much as it was talking to the pundits on the right.  

Kos champions the bomb throwing style of Alan Grayson.  

[ Parent ]
Good and bad
He did successfully predict that Crist would lose the primary. But he also predicted that Crist would defect to the Democrats, and spent the entire election cycle pushing for that outcome to happen.
[ Parent ]
Wow
for someone who's as deep into political blogging as you to disavow the kos rec list is a real black eye for them.  I don't find it worthwhile anymore either, but I can't shake the habit of checking it now and then.  And I like Sinsinger's stuff on the FP.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Rec list
The only thing that surprised me about their rec list recently was that there was no diary about Christine O'Donnell's Halloween adventure.  Was glad to see that they have SOME limits still.  I wonder if Grayson will keep posting there after the election?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
What is WI-3 again?
I guess it can't be Kagen or the open seat.  
Kind vs. Kapanke....
I had a bad feeling about this one ever since I drove through western Wisconsin in late August and saw Kapanke signs at every third farm house in counties than went 63% Obama in 2008.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I guess Wisconsin is going to be pretty tough this year to say the least. I just hope they don't lose the state legislature.
[ Parent ]
Lawn signs are fucking devestating.
I am 100% certain that Kathy Castor is going to get beaten about 70-30 because Mike Pendergast or whatever his name is has a lot of lawn signs in my neighborhood ... and they're fucking devestating.  You heard it here first.  This is the missing 94th seat.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
The problem is ever since lawn signs became self-aware...
...and DOJ ruled they can vote under the VRA, we've been fucked.

I'm hoping the median on Route 123 through Northern Virginia get their own majority-minority district so we can isolate the wooden bastards.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
LOL
All this animosity towards anthropomorphic yard signs.  For shame!  They're taking over here in my weird, semi-rural, gerrymandered corner of Kathy Castor's district.  Wish they'd just go back where they came from.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Lawn signs
Destroy them with a stake?

Joe Cooper
[ Parent ]
Is this a serious comment?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No.
I'm mocking Mark.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Spider:
My folks live in FL-12, near Lakeland. What do you think's going to happen there on Tuesday? And also, what do you make of the race in FL-8? Think Grayson can pull it off?

I'm not hopeful about FL-24 (Kosmas).

[ Parent ]
I think Ross
will prevail by mid-to-high single digits and end up in the low to high 40's, with Edwards in the mid-to-high 30's, and Wilkinson taking the balance.  I'd feel better if the DCCC had ever taken an interest in Edwards.

Grayson I expect to lose by 8-12.  NRCC has pulled out in spite of major $$$ deficit.  Must be seeing some pretty strong numbers for Webster.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Do
you think he would have been able to win before the Taliban Dan ad? I had my doubts even before that but his financial advantage might have saved him. That ad really hurt him I think. Thoughts?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Honestly
I think he'd be more in a position like John Hall or Scott Murphy where we suspect they might lose but it's not a foregone conclusion.  Webster was not a good recruit.  Extremist and not an energetic fundraiser.  Not that Grayson was great shakes either, but at least he had $$$.

Taliban Dan ad was one of the worst cases of needless political malpractice I've seen in a while.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Yard Signs Are A Good Metric.....
....for the level of enthusiasm that exists among voters of one party or the other as well as the party's regional ground game.  In more than a decade of tracking yard sign wars for hundreds of races in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, there has been exactly one instance where the candidate with the fewer yard signs won the election...and that was Tim Pawlenty in the 2006 Minnesota Governor's race....and he only won because Hatch gave it away in the final weekend of the campaign.
[ Parent ]
Re: the regional ground game
Not really. Some campaigns just hate yard signs. And I really do mean HATE.  
[ Parent ]
some campaigns simply dont fund lawn signs like their opponents do
Obama won pretty handedly and I saw hardly any lawn signs for him because he knew lawn signs don't vote.
[ Parent ]
They're not just a good metric.
They're the only metric.  Nothing else matters.  Fucking devestating, they are.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Agreed
It's common knowledge that Baron Hill's impending doom is thanks to Todd Young's lawn sign strategy.
[ Parent ]
I loved that article
nm
[ Parent ]
Lets go down swingin folks!
Ra.
I can't even imagine
this could happen, but if it does..

http://www.gallup.com/poll/144...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

Without putting my rose-colored glasses on
I believe the Network polls that are showing 5-7 right now.  My sense is that Fox, CNN, and Gallup are way off in favor of the Republicans, and the two polls with the race even or better for the Dems are off too.  I'm expecting a mid-single-digit national race.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Final PPP WV-Sen
Manchin 51, Raese 46.

WA-07, 34 years old
About Manchin
Does anybody think he has potential as a national candidate? After watching this race, I think he might. He'd be kind of a throwback candidate for the Dems, rather than an "emerging Democratic majority" type though.

WA-07, 34 years old
Manchin
I can't imagine he'd survive any sort of national Dem primary and putting him on as a VEEP candidate would cause a revolt unless it was a very desperate election.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
See, but after watching him
I don't think he's really that conservative. His debate performance surprised me in this way.

I do agree that he might get branded this way by DKos types as a total DINO, but I don't think he is.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Well "DINO" is in the eye of the beholder, and antipathy toward DINOs is very inconsistent......
This Congress so many Democrats openly were angry at Ben Nelson and Blanche Lincoln.  But they never got this fury in the past.  Evan Bayh always was a target of this, and it was understandable because he routinely would go off-message and attack his own party on TV, just like Lieberman.  Lieberman himself has been a target for years, of course, and deservedly so, even though on most issues he's clearly to the left of the Blue Dog/conservaDem crowd.  Mark Pryor, on the other hand, is a real Bible-thumping conservaDem, but never seems to draw anyone's ire.

No way to know how Manchin will be perceived.  A lot depends on how visible he makes himself, and for what.  That really is the only thing that defines these people's politics.  One mistake of Bayh and some others in killing their chances to get any national traction within their party has been to go on TV primarily to distinguish themselves from most members of their own party.  You don't do that.  Go ahead and talk nicey-nice about the other side sometimes and give a nod to bipartisanship, but never, ever go on TV to talk about why "Democrats are wrong" on something.  If you HAVE to do that to win an election, that's OK, people get that.  But in the middle of Congress to do that on a cable talking head show and repeating Republican talking points, that's not OK.  Just keep your head down and deal with your intraparty disagreements behind closed doors.  As a Senator, they need your vote anyway to get to 60, so just leverage that behind the curtain.

This is all to say it's too soon to write off Manchin nationally based on a cap-and-trade TV ad or whatever else he says to get elected now.  No doubt he's sincere in being on the conservative side of the party, but we don't really know HOW conservative he'll appear over time.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't mind if he opposes cap and trade.
He was from WV. Rockefeller should support it though; he has gained enough confidence with the WV electorate to do so (like Byrd)

DINOs belong in West Virginia and Nebraska, and yes, probably Indiana. They don't belong in Connecticut.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Well, if you actually hear him speak...
He doesn't come off like the caricature of a conservadem.  Over time, he could moderate his image back to a standard democrat, he could end up being quite a standard bearer.
[ Parent ]
Could a guy
who shot the cap and trade bill win a D primary?  Isn't he pro-life?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
He's not pro-choice
That's just not going to work for the national party.  
[ Parent ]
not to mention being pro gay rights
is becoming a necessity.  We're going to see a lot more candidates in favor of gay marriage come 2016 and Manchin probably wouldnt even be in favor of civil unions.
[ Parent ]
They all change when they run.
In past Democratic contests a good portion of the candidates were recent "converts" to being pro-choice.  And no one much cared that Richard Gephardt and Jesse Jackson used to be pro-life.

If you want an almost absurd example.  Charlie Crist was pro-life his entire political career.  Until he fell behind in the polls to Marco Rubio.  Now he goes on Keith Olbermann and denounces Rubio for being a radical who wants to overturn Roe v Wade.

If he ran for President Manchin's position on abortion instantly changes to "I personally oppose abortion but....."

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Please no
The words "President Manchin" are disturbing to me.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Clinton
He's more conservative than Bill Clinton was coming out of his governorship, so, no; he doesn't have a chance.  And thank god for that.
[ Parent ]
He's already 63
I think the Senate is the last stop for him. I suppose he could follow in Robert Byrd's footsteps and become Majority Leader.


[ Parent ]
Majority Leader
I suspect the Dems will avoid Senate leaders from red states given recent history.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
He
could have a spot in a cabinet some day. That's probably it though. I think he'll keep a pretty low profile in the Senate. He could run but I doubt he wins. I understand why he did it and do not blame him for it but his talk of repealing HCR and not voting Obama will kill his chances in a primary.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He's
He's sort of put himself in a box, too.  I think he was very smart to say that he wanted a 2 year trial period since the people like him and want to feel safe voting for him, but that means for the next two years he's basically going to have to vote like and R on most things.  If re-elected in 2012, then he could feel safe to drift more toward being a regular southern Dem like Pryor.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I don't think he has to worry about the next Senate
The Democrats will most likely have 50-51 seats. They'll "control" the Senate but it will be the conservative/moderate Democrats like Manchin and the GOP that will dictate the agenda.  
[ Parent ]
I Doubt He'll Get Re-elected To His Senate Seat In 2012....
....with Obama at the top of the ticket and likely a Shelley Moore Capito challenge.  And that's if he wins on Tuesday, which I'm still not convinced of.
[ Parent ]
WV is an incumbent loving state though
Rockefeller got re-elected easily with Obama leading the ticket in 2008. It might not take Manchin very long to get entrenched, especially since he's been so popular as governor.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Pro-Democratic Environment In 2008 Even With Obama On The Ticket....
That's why all the Southern Dems were getting re-elected even with Obama reaching historic lows of Democratic support in their districts.  With Obama as the incumbent, I'm not so sure Manchin (or especially Rockefeller if Obama is re-elected) survives the next time.
[ Parent ]
You think Rockefeller won't survive?
What planet are you living on?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Seriously? Are We Still Playing This Game On This Of All Days?
This narrative is becoming all too familiar at this point.  Allow me to ad lib a few other examples of what you're peddling that I've heard in the last two years....

You think Blanche Lincoln won't survive?  What planet are you living on?

You think Russ Feingold won't survive?  What planet are you living on?

You think Patty Murray won't survive?  What planet are you living on?

You think Jim Oberstar won't survive?  What planet are you living on?

Are we really gonna continue to fancy our Democratic incumbents invincible after this cycle?  Especially those in R+8 states?

[ Parent ]
Every cycle is different, and politics
is cyclical.

Remember the projections of a permanent Republican majority in 2004? The emerging Democratic majority in 2008?

No one can say for sure what the big issues will be in 2012. Though if it's still the economy, the Dems are still in trouble (though less so than now, because responsibility will be shared).  

[ Parent ]
Agreed.....
....but I still think it's pretty nuts to give a blanket dismissal of the prospect of a Jay Rockefeller re-election defeat in a state as red as West Virginia has gotten, particularly after we've watched seemingly invulnerable Democratic incumbents get snuffed out (most likely anyway) this year.
[ Parent ]
You give blanket dismissal to any Democrat's reelection prospects......
Every Democrat is endangered, but no Republican ever is.

We're all still holding you to your predictions on Mike Beebe, Mike Ross, Raese by 12, 93 seats, etc.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The thing is,
the Democratic majority is far more likely to appear than any sort of Republican majority. It might get knocked off track for a few years, but there's no denying that long term trends favor the Democrats.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Things
Things are never static; I don't thing that long term trends mean anything.  Parties will always be trying to find ways to get a majority.  If the GOP needs to change/evolve to do that, they will.  Both parties have been doing that from when they were created.  I don't at all think the changing ethnic nature of the country spells doom for the GOP.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Tell me how that "evolution" of the Republican Party is working out in California???......
The growth of nonwhite votres is a serious long-term problem for Republicans that won't merely resolve itself.  The GOP is still the party of Jesse Helms, he's merely been succeeded by new blood.  To say the party will merely evolve to stay competitive is not a realistic way of looking at things while already embracing tens of millions of voters who have racist and xenophobic sentiments; you can't win without them, and you can't get more people of color without jettisoning them.

California is Example 1 of your problem, and your Republicans there haven't solved it.  Schwarzenneger was potentially the start of a new CA GOP, but the state party still refuses to embrace that brand of Rockefeller Republicanism.  Escaping a primary still means being conservative, and embracing the wingnuts.  And in this perhaps best-ever of Republican years, California Republicans are going to have more of the same in election results.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Where do Latino voters go
when comprehensive immigration reform is finally passed and no longer issue no. 1 with many of them?

There have been articles highlighting how Latino values more align with Republican party values, especially religiously.

The Dem party doesn't seem to have any rising Latino political stars.  

[ Parent ]
The Dem party actually does have rising Latino political stars.
Hilda Solis, Xavier Beccaria, potentially Joe Garcia if he wins this race. I'm probably leaving out several others as well.
[ Parent ]
Hispanics
don't need to go to the Democrats by the same margin as blacks going to the Democrats for them to be deadly to the Republicans. The Republicans could still get 30 percent of the Hispanic vote, and unless there were some specific circumstances like the Cuban voting that used to break heavily for the Republicans occurring, the Democrats would be in great shape.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
CA
California is a liberal state regardless of the ethnic issues.  The GOP isn't doing all that well in OR and WA either and those states are a lot more white.  No party is ever going to be popular in all states.  I really don't want to get down into the weeds or predict things too far into the future, but I can easily see middle class Hispanic voters going GOP.  What if Marco Rubio runs for prez, for example?  One thing I am happy to see is that 'gay' issues are already fading from the GOP's playbook as the country's feelings on those have changed rapidly.  I expect that will get talked about less and less every election and I'm very happy to see that.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Rubio isn't going to do any better among non-Cuban Hispanics than any other Republican
Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans are very different from each other, and there's a reason why the former two are largely Democratic while Cubans are largely Republican.

In fact, it's an assumption that could easily cost the Republicans even more support among non-Cuban Hispanics.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
California is a liberal state BECAUSE of what you call "ethnic issues"......
Specifically, California is a liberal state because there are no longer enough white people in the electorate to offset people of color.

Why do you think CA-Gov and CA-Sen are not blowouts for Dems?  It's because Whitman and Fiorina have big leads with white voters.  But people of color make up too big a percentage of the electorate to overcome even with big white majorities.

There are states where a Democrat struggles to get to 30% of the white vote statewide.  A Democratic Presidential nominee cannot get 20% of the white vote in Mississippi or 30% in Georgia.

But in most states a Republican isn't going to be able to get those kinds of supermajorities among white voters.  In California Whitman and Fiorina could get 60% of white votes and that's still not enough.  And that's because they cannot win enough people of color, which is because they have to pivot right to win primaries.

This is the future of the GOP if it doesn't find a way to get back to Rockefeller Republicanism.  But the party is going the exact opposite direction, where even in Delaware a moderate cannot win a Republican primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
For many Latinos, conservatism is not the problem
the apparent racism of much of the R party against them is. W nearly overcame that problem, but was stopped by his rank and file.

Yes, he didn't do as well as some data suggested, but if he were successful w/r/t immigration reform, even if it was because he worked with Ted Kennedy, I believe Rs would have gotten credit.

OTOH, we're close to a Latino perception of Rs nearly matching that of African-Americans, which is  good for Ds, longer term.

[ Parent ]
Not really true, surveys show Latinos side with Dems on many issues having nothing to do...
...with immigration or race.

Whenever such things are polled among Hispanics, Hispanics give Obama high job approval ratings than other groups do, they approve more of Democrats than Republicans on a whole range of issues like health care, education, and whatnot.

I've said before and will say again Hispanic alignment with Democrats is about a lot more than immigration or race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It helps
to view the majorities as cycles that last three or four decades. During these times, the party that isn't usually in power can gain it, but they become more like the usually dominant party and fight the issues on terms that aren't always their own. Think of Eisenhower and Nixon, both of whom came before Reagan, or Johnson and Truman, both of whom came after FDR, or Clinton, who came after Reagan.

In other words, it's not that the Republican will never control power again. It's just seems likely that if they do, they will be much more moderate than they have been from the time of Reagan up until the advent of Obama.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Where to begin...?
Lincoln was always a potential target, she was never all that popular and frankly once Boozman won the primary, her chances of survival were nonexistent (and everyone acknowledged that, saying otherwise is bullshit).

Feingold has never been all that popular, he's a crank who tends to have close races. Yes, many here (including myself) thought that Russ wouldn't have much trouble, but given his electoral history it's not a shocker that he's having real problems now.

Murray will survive, and you can take that to the bank (and when Rossi entered no one didn't think that this race wouldn't be at least somewhat competitive).

Oberstar is still likely to survive IMHO, we'll see who's right come election day, but it's pretty damn smug to talk about Oberstar like he's DOA the way you have.

And guess what, you're the one making such statements like "I don't see how Manchin (or especially Rockefeller if Obama is re-elected) survives". Complaining about us talking about "invincible incumbents" when you're talking about incumbents who are DOOOOOMED is really hilarious.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
The one benefit of Mark's absurdities on this site...
...is that somehow, unthinkably, a win by Mike Beebe of all people actually gives a lot of us "bragging rights" against someone on Tuesday.  One of the perpetually safest incumbent Democratic Governors in the country who no one cares about gets reelected in a yawning landslide, and thanks to Mark we have reason to BRAG about it here!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If That Helps Ease The Pain.....
....then I'm more than happy to be your pin cushion.  If the Democrats lose 80 seats, go right ahead and ridicule me for my CRAAAAZY predictions that they'd lose more than 90! I can hear it now.... "Can you believe that idiot thought Beebe would lose?  He's insane!  Sure he was right about 95% of the other races, but overplaying his hand on the Arkansas Governor's race makes him a certifiable looney!"
[ Parent ]
Ok...
Seriously, regardless of how the Democrats do on Tuesday, I'm going to enjoy rubbing your face in how wrong you were (and yes, I say that with confidence, it's going to be a pleasure to see 20-30 members who you wrote off as being DoA win and you pretend like you really just meant they could be vulnerable).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I hope you can be such a good sport
on Tues night and Wed.
[ Parent ]
I'm Sure On The Sunday Before The 2014 Election.....
....you'll be telling us you never really thought Rockefeller was gonna win back when you encouraged him to support cap and trade thinking he could get away with it.  Perhaps I'm too pessimistic, but you really should evaluate the races listed above and see if you think you would have made the hindsight 20/20 comments you made about them at this time in 2008.  Did you really think Blanche Lincoln and Russ Feingold were poised to lose in 2008?  I'm calling bullshit on you if you say you did.

And even if Murray and Oberstar survive, that's not the point.  If they survive 51-49, then they were vulnerable in a way you wouldn't have believed they'd be 18 months ago and as you naively believe Rockefeller won't be even now.

[ Parent ]
No I didn't, but then again, I did think, after Obama's performance, that Lincoln would at least have a tough race
As I said, neither Lincoln nor Feingold have ever been particularly popular in their states (and, for the record, I did think that Feingold would've been in trouble if Tommy Thompson had jumped in).

And excuse me, but you're arguments are so dishonest that they border on being comical, you're the one who is predicting (with pretty much absolute certainty) that the Democrats are going to lose 90-100 seats. Everyone in the world is naive except for you I suppose...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Lincoln won by 12% in 2004
Republicans were kicking themselves for not putting up a more formidable candidate against her. I would say that Pryor was lucky to do the same in 2008 and definitely Landrieu would have been toast if she ran this cycle.  
[ Parent ]
Another installment in the "we're all doomed!!!" files I see...
If Manchin wins now, he wins in 2012 and whenever he runs for re-election.

And how exactly is Rockefeller more likely to lose than Manchin? Rockefeller is a long-term incumbent who consistently wins over 60% of the vote and the Republicans still have no real bench in West Virginia.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Mark has no idea what he is talking about.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Rockefeller Is Well To The Left Of Manchin....
....and FAR to the left of present-day West Virginia.  That's how.
[ Parent ]
....
Rockefeller also won re-election 64-35, plus WV is still quite a pro-union state.

It takes a lot of nerve to say that a guy who won re-election by nearly 30 points is a guaranteed loser 4 years out from an election.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Nobody Guaranteed Anything.....
....I just don't think he'll win re-election in West Virginia.  And by the way, Jim Oberstar won re-election with 68% in 2008...and his odds of survival are no better than 50-50 now.  Shit happens....and often happens pretty darn fast.
[ Parent ]
Oberstar will win
I don't take SUSA's poll seriously, Oberstar will be fine, especially given that Dayton is almost assured a victory and in that district.

Oh wait, I forgot, Dayton's doomed too...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
What democrat in a "tossup" race
do you think will win if any?  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Leonard Boswell......
Tim Bishop, Ed Perlmutter, Cedric Richmond, Rush Holt, Jason Altmire, Nick Rahall.....I guess that's about it off the top of my head
[ Parent ]
For SSP ratings I ment should have been more clear
I think Boswell is on there but otherwise what tossups from SSPs list do you think the dems are more likely to win in?

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Moore-Capito might go for the Gov spot.
She had a much better chance at beating him this year and didn't go for it.  
[ Parent ]
If he can win this election, 2012 probably won't be a big problem for him
If Obama wasn't enough of a factor for him to lose in a midterm, Obama had the top of the ticket shouldn't be too much for him. Capito would more likely try her luck at the Governor's seat, which would be an easier race than challenging an incumbent Senator.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Of course you don't, you absurdly predicted a 12-point loss for THIS Tuesday. So it's a relief..
...if you predict him to lose AGAIN in 2012.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I wonder if he STILL thinks he'll lose.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
^^^^^^^^^ THIS


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Don't you know?
Manchin has to be at over 60% in the polls to even have a theoretical chance!

Oh and Democrats are only going to have 1 member in the House (and he's only barely going to hold on, Obama only got 95% of the vote there after all!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
LOL! And don't forget Mike Beebe is going down in AR
Don't let that 58-37 polling lead fool you.  
[ Parent ]
The problem he'll run into...
Is that he'd be up for re-election in two years, meaning he's going to be as conservative as he's running now, which will piss off a lot of Democrats who get their first look at him. He's going to have to run against Obama Administration in 2012 while Obama is running for re-election himself.  

Hopefully he gets in with the Webb, Warner, McCaskill crowd and not the Nelson, Lieberman, Landrieu crowd.

However with Webb, McCaskill, Nelson, Lieberman, Manchin, Casey, Klobuchar, Conrad, Tester, Carper all up for re-election in 2012 the next two years are going to be dominated by centrists no matter if Dems hold the Senate this year or not.  

[ Parent ]
Someone like him. Yes.
But perhaps not specifically him.  The problem is that he's 63.  Therefore unless Obama doesn't run there is no open contest until 2016.  He'll be nearly 70.  So his window is very very narrow.

Now in 2016 he would be an interesting VP prospect.

But for President that's a tougher move.  He'd be running a Bill Clinton type campaign who ran as a "new" more conservative Democrat who can "win."  However if Obama is re-elected 2012 that is a tough argument to make.  Even if Obama loses it's still not like 1992 where the Democrats lost three straight landslides and were desperate for absolutely anyone who could possibly win.

But even then would he have any advantage over younger, better known, or probably better financed moderates such as Mark Warner or Evan Bayh?

Then there of course is the issue of how far he is willing to move to court voters.  John Edwards in 2004 for example moved far enough to the left that he made himself unelected in North Carolina.  Al Gore on the other hand in 1988 really didn't move himself that much except on the issue of abortion.  If Manchin were to run for President would he go for broke or would he continue to keep an eye on making sure he stays in good shape to run again in West Virginia?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Drudge leak
NYT LEAD MONDAY: Both parties see possibility of bigger Republican wins in House than either side was talking about -- even few days ago... Developing...

I think this is a Dem leak to manage expectations.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

probably
they want it to look like losing 55 seats isn't "that bad."
[ Parent ]
No, what it "probably" is, is simply Drudge spewing horseshit as usual......
Nothing on Drudge should ever be taken at face value.

And, indeed, nothing on Drudge is ever worth repeating anywhere else.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Politico's got a lot of concern trolling, too....
This time, they supposedly quote dem pollsters....
[ Parent ]
Fineman says
two veterans of Democratic politics/campaign work independently told him this weekend they think Dems could lose 70 House seats. Could happen, but it sounds like managing expectations to me.
[ Parent ]
There's always those anonymous quotes though
In the last weekend. I distinctly remember in 2006, anonymous quotes about "apocalyptic numbers" for the GOP. Anonymous GOP consultants telling columnists they were expecting to lose "50 seats."

Basically, as waves approach, there is both expectations managements, as you point out, plus a lot of people on the losing side freaking out about worst-case scenarios and blabbing to the press, just as there are a few giddy consultants from the winning side talking up how good it's going to get.

Of course, the ghost that's haunting Democrats right now is '94, when the GOP did way better than pre-election forecasts, though I suspect that the GOP was underestimated then just because a GOP House majority had seemed inconceivable for decades.  

[ Parent ]
And Steele was on television today...
Saying even 37 seats would be a "win" for the GOP.  It's all about managing the expectations now.  

Put a gun to my head and I have to pick the number of GOP pick-ups within three either way to live and I'd guess 55.  

[ Parent ]
Good luck with that
The media is likely going to have a field day short of anything but Democrats keeping the house.

It is strange though how all this has started the last few days. Even up to last week I thought the Democrats might just barely lose control of the House.

[ Parent ]
Well from both '06 and '08...
... the weekend before has lots of grim "worst-case scenarios" being floated by anonymous "insiders" of both parties. In '06, I remember reading articles about Republicans "privately fearing" a loss of 50+ seats, and in '08, a lot of forecasts in the end overstated Dem gains, with many analysts predicting 25 or even 30 additional pickups instead of the 20 they actually received.

Ultimately, I tend to come down on the political science side of these debates, and suspect that the models predicting about 50 seats will probably prove correct.  

[ Parent ]
Dennis Kucinich posted a panicked diary....
...at dKos asking for not only money but volunteers.  Dennis isn't the safest guy on the block--remember that OH-10 was represented by a Republican during the 90's... I don't really believe he's endangered, but asking for volunteers isn't like him if he isn't really feeling threatened.
I'm not sure what to make
of outreaches like that. Perhaps he is just legitimately short on volunteers, which might be an issue whether or not he was running in a tough race.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
bah, that man doesnt deserve an ounce of support
He should be able to hold that seat down all on his own but he chooses to make an ass of himself on the national stage instead.  Wont argue his politics, but they do not rub people the right way, even many liberals.
[ Parent ]
OH-10
Kucinich has always underperformed his district, even against no name opponents like Herrmann in '04. Corrigan was a no-name who got enough money to blanket the airwaves in recent weeks. If the Dem losses top 60-65 (for the record, I am with most of you in saying 55 +/- 3), Kucinich will be one of the seats that "no one saw coming" along with Charlie Wilson in OH-6.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Charlie Wilson was downgraded awhile ago, that wouldn't be a shock anymore......
Kucinich, though, would be a shock.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It was Morgan Freeman
William (B.J.) Lawson Yes, Morgan Freeman is the narrator for our most recent commercial. Mr. Clay, you might enjoy another excellent work narrated by Mr. Freeman, our American Declaration of Independence

This is the Lawson FB page.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

PPP: Miller 37%, Murkowski 30%, McAdams 30%
Blech...  Shitty day all around...

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

That explains why the DSCC went after Murkowski
They need Dems to come home. And that may just happen.
[ Parent ]
Sure, but it doesn't mean they think Miller is in front, and I don't think...
...either party thinks Miller is in front anymore.

All the buzz is that Miller is done.

Begich is the only major figure to say Miller still has a slight edge, but he has a concealed motive for saying that:  he's been aggressively helping McAdams from the start, and saying Miller is still winning undermines Murkowski and helps stir fear of Miller into Democrats.

I guess we'll see......PPP is going out on a limb with this one, and they will be truly sterling or have egg on their faces with it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Alaska is such a hard state to poll though
I really doubt anyone is going to hold it against them if they're wrong, especially given the dynamics of this race.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
And this buzz came from Miller lawn signs
being removed by home owners. I swear that's what I was told when I asked some folks pushing this.  
[ Parent ]
What are you talking about? No, that's not where the "buzz" came from......
The "buzz" I speak of is what Republican insiders are saying, per campaign news stories.  The NRSC does not make decisions on lawn signs.  They obviously have been polling on their own and are finding Miller struggling.  Their numbers obviously depart loudly from PPP, or else they wouldn't be leaking the level of concern they have.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
You people think I'm joking about lawn signs.
Lawn signs are the number one, number two, and number three issues in this campaign nationwide.  The little fuckers are taking over everything.  Roscoe is right on the money with this.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Murkowski
is helping Miller at this point.  There is no way miller could get to 50%.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Alaska seems to like electing
even unpopular Republicans. I wouldn't be too sure about that.
[ Parent ]
not this unpopular though!
Although you are right in that way that in my thinking that Miller would be a goner in a two-race may be a bit presumptive as Alaska is a tough state to predict.
[ Parent ]
There's no way any of the three AK-Sen candidates
 gets to 50%. It's all about coming in first. Alaska isn't a Southern state with a runoff primary, it's all about the plurality!   The winner may have less than 40% of the vote.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Uck!
I am for anyone but Miller, if that means Murkowski, so be it. Miller strikes me as a dangerous personality to add to an already radical group of individuals seemingly posed to take up Senate seats next year.  

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
How is PPP carrying out so much polling?
And this late in the cycle, when folks are damn tired of no-stop phone calls and are out getting out the vote.  

I think this could be right though.  And the worst part is that Murkowski voters might think - damn Miller could win this, maybe I'll vote for McAdams strategically. And McAdams voters are thinking "hell, I better write in Murkowski to stop that fool Miller".  So they just trade votes.  

If I was Scott, I'd go meet Murkowski and say "We're both polling even, Miller is ahead.  Let's flip a coin, heads I drop out and endorse you, tails you drop out and endorse me."

However Palin seemed really on tilt this weekend, like she sees that Murkowski might get the better of her.  I don't know what to think about this race.

If I was to bet, I'd probably put money on Miller, with enough folks voting for the [R] after his name.  

 

[ Parent ]
Tom Jensen probably hasn't slept for the past 3 days.

[ Parent ]
According to Twitter
He didn't sleep at all last night. But he only has two polls (NC and FL) left to release, so he can sleep well tonight.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Another PPP poll result
Do you want Sarah Palin to run for President in 2012?
Yes........................  18%
No ......................... 70%
Not sure ................    12%

LoL

[ Parent ]
Given her cut and run in Alaska
Is anyone really surprised?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I couldn't contain my laughter
Beyond abysmal.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
She won't be able to handle not being...
in the spotlight when her 15 minutes is up.  It's not the money for her - it's the fame.

She was in rare form on Fox calling CBS "Corrupt Bastards" and saying CBS stood for "Corrupt Bastards Club".  

[ Parent ]
Katie Couric is on CBS ;)
I really think that interview ruined politics for Mrs. Palin; what I just cant get interviewed, be myself, and have people think Im awesome?  She is scarred for life from that.
[ Parent ]
Ha!
I always hear skeptics say to be careful what you wish for.  In this case I have no doubt in my mind that I want our nominee to run against Sarah Palin in 2012, not even an iota of fear.  I want to see her absolutely crushed and humiliated on a national scale while she's standing on her own two feet and not running second on a ticket with someone.  She's asking for it and she deserves that and nothing less.  
[ Parent ]
Not sure about this one
Alaska is tough to poll because of the far-flung rural communities.  This poll strangely had Miller winning the "non-white" population rather handily.  I suspect that if those votes were accounted for properly, we'd be closer to a 3-way tie.
[ Parent ]
As I said on the other thread...
This isn't a bad poll. It's a very small state and the dynamics of this race have been extremely fluid. PPP's three-way polling record is pretty poor, too, and polling of this race in general has been spotty.

The take-away is that Sen. Murkowski and Mayor McAdams are sharing support, and McAdams is the most popular candidate in the race. Meanwhile, the DSCC has piled on Murkowski, attacking her for "going Washington" while McAdams's ads play up his folksy all-Alaskan character.

If Murkowski gets fewer votes than anticipated, it's likely a lot of her supporters instead vote for McAdams. And against a candidate who is totally maxed out, as Miller appears to be, McAdams might be able to best him even with one hand tied behind his back.

This race has always been a long shot. This poll says it's still a long shot. It doesn't say Miller will win.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
MI-State Elections
For anyone interested, in the state races in Michigan, the Democratic gubernatorial, SoS, and AG candidates have basically been staked out in Detroit since thursday or friday.  Bernero has hit up something like over 20 Detroit churches over the weekend including the 8,000-member Greater Grace Temple.  I take it that this is simply to prevent a total GOP tsunami by turning out the heavily Democratic Detroit vote.

I've heard nothing special of the GOP state candidates.  They are trying as hard as they can to stay out of the media's way and coast to victory.

I can say right now I have NO idea what's to happen Tuesday night.  I usually have a feel for stuff, but this time around I have no idea.

PPP: Buck 49, Bennett 48
Hick 48 Tanc 43 Maes 8

Wow!  Some decent news for a change!

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Once again, the power of early voting

One thing interesting to note within the results is that with respondents who say they've already voted- accounting for 66% of the sample- Bennet is actually ahead by a 52-46 margin. Buck leads 55-41 with those who say they have not yet cast their ballots. Bennet should probably be rooting for ugly weather on election day, any little thing could help in such a close race if he already has a lead in the bank.

if the proportion is right -- 2/3 have already voted -- and Buck has to clean up on election day to make it close.

Can anyone do a snow dance?

[ Parent ]
Just for Colorado Springs, thanks...
I'd rather Denver and Boulder stay shy of the bad weather.

Forecast looks really nice in all three towns for Tuesday, by the way.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Would have really helped Sestak, I imagine...
Although, I did have a thought right now... PPP does not have a very good record in PA.  They screwed up Obama's primary in 2008.  Got the Burns/Crist special election VERY wrong this year.  Maybe PA is just not the best polling place for PPP.
[ Parent ]
The race snaps into focus in a bad way:
previously buck and Bennet were splitting whites. Now the undecided whites have apparently broken for Buck.

It's going to be a long Tuesday night IMO.  

[ Parent ]
It's scary to think that
the controversies about the rape case and abortion and his comments about homosexuality being like alcoholism actually helped him with voters.
[ Parent ]
well...
The other way to look at it is now there are hardly any white undecided voters left and the majority of undecideds are hispanic and "other".  There are also less Republican undecideds as well.
[ Parent ]
Uh, no, more accurately, those crosstabs are VERY unreliable and tell NOTHING......
The racial subsamples from these polls have sky-high margins of error so that their breakdowns are unreliable.  Realistically subsamples this small can show a tie with white voters or either side winning by 10, and still end up with the same topline.  The Hispanic vote breakdown can fluctuate even more wildly, and still the topline is right.

And once you get down to an even smaller subsample of undecided whites, whatever you see is even more worthless.

Campaign polling solves this problem by oversampling selected groups.  They do this because they obviously NEED to know exactly what's going on with various subgroups.  Public polls don't do that, they fill a demand in the market but not a professional NEED for more reliable subsample breakdowns.

I understand the temptation to read SOOOOO much into crosstabs, I really do.  I, too, look at them, and try to glean whatever I can.  And PPP is actually better than most in its racial subsamples, consistently showing the normal linear voting pattern of whites leaning GOP; Asians leaning Democrat; Hispanics more heavily Democratic; and blacks most heavily Democratic.  Most public polls don't get that right, and Rasmussen in particular screws up badly with "other" minorities.

But ultimately there's nothing these public polls do to make up for the inherent unreliability of specific breakdowns of subsample numbers.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
CO-03: registered Republicans have nearly 11,000 vote lead
I didn't really think this seat was going to go.  But the numbers are pretty crushing right now.

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

You can ignore the editorializing and scroll down for the numbers.  Also of note: Markey is hopeless.

Don't they usually do pretty well
before election day in Colorado? The Democrats have trailed in the past but still won the state on election day.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Correct, and more importantly no campaign assertions on National Review are to be trusted......
NRO really spins like a top.  They BELIEVE their spin, that's the key problem.  They can't step away from their own druthers in drawing conclusions about what's really happening.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
This is
an old link, but unless there's been some drastic change in the last ten days, Ambinder makes the case that things aren't going badly for the Democrats there, or at least it's not yet evident. While he compares this year to 2008, it's a valid comparison only because the Democrats were clearly more motivated in 2008 and still were behind in the early voting, but came out well ahead of the Republicans.

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
PPP: Illinois is out...
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Giannoulias - 42%
Kirk - 46%

Quinn - 40%
Brady - 45%

Comes down to turnout, but I expect these two to be narrow pickups for Team Red on Election Night, and I have for a while now. Treasurer Giannoulias and Gov. Quinn are barely stronger candidates than their opponents, and in a wave election heading the wrong direction, that's just not good enough.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

This is such a waste
The Dems really shot themselves in the foot when they nominated Giannoulias and Quinn. I really hope when this is over they push back that ridiculous early primary date.  
[ Parent ]
Not sure if the Dem candidates matter
If Hoffman or Hynes were strong enough they would have put up a better showing in the primary. Alexi had scandals and Quinn was not hugely popular.

This year is all about empty Republicans. Illinois apparently won't be any different.  

[ Parent ]
They already did, I believe
I'm pretty sure they moved the primary back to March.

And I know they also got rid of the separate primary ballot for Lieutenant Governor.  

[ Parent ]
PPP:
Rossi 50
Murray 48

Those who've already voted (~76%)
Rossi 52
Murray 47

Accolrding to this article in the Washington Post...
Only 40% have been returned as of this weekend...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Didn't Nate silver say that robopollsters have had a particularly hard time in WA?

[ Parent ]
Yep
he did.  And they've done nothing to change their ways.  robo-pollsters have been underestimating Dems in WA for cycle after cycle, and they just keep beating their heads against the wall.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
What's PPP's record like in WA...
...does anybody know?

I guess I'm going to rely on Cook with this one. He feels that WA is in the bag...

[ Parent ]
I don't see any
PPP polls for WA prior to this cycle.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
PPP
Boxer 50
Carly 46
SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings | 195 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox