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Under-the-Radar House Races Cattle Call

by: Crisitunity

Sat Oct 23, 2010 at 6:31 PM EDT


Here's one other activity for everyone in comments, one where you can genuinely help us out by doing some crowdsourcing. As you've probably noticed, the list of Dems on the House race ratings board keeps growing and growing, to the extent that the large majority of members in GOP-leaning or swing districts are already on there. However, in the interest of being thorough, we're wondering if anyone else should be on there.

To help out, here's a table of the remaining Dems in districts with a Cook PVI of D+10 or less. (I was going to stop at D+5, but that'd be a short list, and it seems like there are occasional rumors of vulnerable members that extend higher up the list than that.) So, with an eye toward commenters who actually live in or near these districts or are connected to them, we're wondering: do any of the Dems in these districts have compelling opponents (or not-so-compelling ones who still have the money, or deep-pocketed third-party friends, to advertise)? Are any of them egregiously phoning their own campaigns in, not treating this year any differently than any other one? Are there any other under-the-radar reasons why we should be concerned about any of these races (i.e. minor scandals or ill-conceived votes that haven't resonated outside the local media)?

DistrictRep.Cook
PVI		DistrictRep.Cook
PVI
OK-02BorenR+14NC-04PriceD+8
MN-07PetersonR+5CA-51FilnerD+8
TX-27OrtizR+2MA-05TsongasD+8
TX-28CuellarR+0IN-01ViscloskyD+8
IL-12CostelloD+3OH-10KucinichD+8
TX-15HinojosaD+3TX-20GonzalezD+8
TN-05CooperD+3MA-03McGovernD+8
NY-27HigginsD+4NY-18LoweyD+9
NY-02IsraelD+4MA-02NealD+9
NY-09WeinerD+5NJ-09RothmanD+9
NC-13MillerD+5WA-01InsleeD+9
WA-06DicksD+5RI-02LangevinD+9
TX-25DoggettD+6CT-03DeLauroD+9
CT-02CourtneyD+6NC-01ButterfieldD+10
MD-03SarbanesD+6OH-09KapturD+10
NY-21TonkoD+6NV-01BerkleyD+10
PA-13SchwartzD+7TX-16ReyesD+10
MD-02RuppersbergerD+7NJ-08PascrellD+10
MA-06TierneyD+7MO-05CleaverD+10
TX-29Green, G.D+7------

A few of these races have had public polls where there was a wide margin (OK-02, CT-02); a few more have had the incumbent release a crushing internal in response to rumored close GOP polls that never really surfaced (MN-07, PA-13). (And one of them, of course, was on the board but got taken off thanks to a little Nazi problem.) But for most of them, we're simply bereft of information... and that's where you guys come in.

In case you're wondering, there are only three Dem-held seats on the board that go higher up the list than this: the open seat race in RI-01 (D+13), John Dingell in MI-15 (D+13), and Barney Frank in MA-04 (D+14).
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Under-the-Radar House Races Cattle Call | 164 comments
MA-05 Tierney
His wife was arrested because her brother was funneling money to her from illegal offshore internet gaming.  She was managing an account that had over $7 million dumped into it, but she plead guilty and was only fined $2500.  This was pretty big in Boston media last couple of weeks.  Congressman said he knew nothing about his wife and the $7M, but it certainly didn't look good.

http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

 

MA-06 my bad n/t

[ Parent ]
I live in NY-02
I wouldn't be worried about Israel at all.
I've seen Israel's ads on TV, as well as a few mailings here and there.  Nothing from GOPer John Gomez, except yard signs.  Israel won't be caught asleep at the wheel here.

All in all, I don't think he's in much trouble.  No polling on this race that I can recall though.  The action seems to be next door in NY-01, I'm looking forward to Israel winning by double digits.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

I can't see Bishop
going down, either. I did a little work for his campaign in 2006. He seemed to take it seriously then, so I can't imagine he's decided to go on auto-pilot now. And while his district might be a little more Republican than Long Island as a whole, I don't think it's enough to get Altschuler elected unless there's a true massacre headed our way.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'm from WA-06
Dicks' opponent is running against him for the fourth time. Dicks has more money than the Queen and voters here have been electing him since the Ford Administration. He got 56% in the blanket primary back in August. He's in no danger.
FWIW....
And I don't think it is worth crap, personally, but his opponent (Cloud) just released an internal (from a pollster I haven't heard of) claiming a four-point lead.

Yeah...I don't buy it, either.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

[ Parent ]
Source?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
FWIW
[ Parent ]
Cloud is a joke. All reputable pollsters have given Dicks 60% of th vote
or better. Wenzel Strategies out of Toledo has conducted relatively few polls and does polling for Worls Net Daily. Huffington Post describes them as ethically challenged

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

[ Parent ]
I Don't Think Peterson Will Be Felled.....
The biggest problem in taking him on is the inhospitable geography of the district.  There are literally six media markets that feed the district's terrain.  While the media markets may be cheap aside from Minneapolis-St. Paul, it would add up quickly trying to reach the voters in six media markets, and in many cases would not be cost-efficient given the relatively small number of voters you'd be reaching.  I know we have at least one poster on here from northwestern media.  Perhaps he/she can tell us whether Peterson or his opponent have ever had an ad on the Fargo or Grand Forks TV stations?  Because outside of TV ads, voters in much of the region would be in the dark about the state of the race.  The Watertown and Sioux Falls, SD, media markets would NEVER talk about a Congressional race in western Minnesota, and it's unlikely the Mankato, MN, market would either.  I lived in that media market for several years during Peterson's tenure in the district and neither Peterson's name nor his opponent's ever came up there.

Among many reasons why Peterson would be very hard to topple even in a wave election, the aforementioned is first and foremost.

Indeed

I am in the Northern half of CD 7, and Peterson is being quite active compared to other years.  Radio and TV ads in the Fargo-Moorhead and Grand Forks-East Grand Forks markets, all the way up to Roseau, MN.  Billboards and mailers too.  He's not a progressive darling, but Peterson will be the Congressman from Minnesota's 7th district for as long as he likes.  

Byberg, his opponent, has lawn signs.  

[ Parent ]
While I think that Peterson will survive (by 10?)
Byberg is at least somewhat active. Was just in the district for a few days (for a sad personal visit), and he was coming in to De Toy's in Morris for breakfast (home of a UM branch) just as we were leaving. Got a big writeup in the local paper too.

Bonus: MN-Gov - saw a lot more activity for Mark Dayton in CD-07 than for Emmer or Horner.... though didn't see a wisp of Dayton on TV. (We were mostly in Alec through Graceville.)

[ Parent ]
I've seen

Byberg's bus a month or so ago around these parts, and he is campaigning, but nothing remotely on par with Peterson.  

I know this is a House cattle call, so I'll be brief, but Dayton was also on a swing through this area, East Grand Forks and Fisher MN with Peterson.  

[ Parent ]
I have seen a few

Dayton ads, the ones that feature his family in the Fargo-Moorhead TV stations.  
[ Parent ]
frank
is in ma-4 ,not 10

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
Parents live near TX-29
Gene Green is fine. Spends his time campaigning for others.

Most of our state's congressmen are pretty unimpressive, however, with few accomplishments to point to, or work the extremes of their party (This hints at why Chet Edwards is so great out of our 32 and why Ciro is pretty meh, holding a swing seat but being pretty indistinguishable from the other Valley reps).

TX-25 Dogget should be ok, North Austin is the GOP part and is turning out, that's out of his district. TX-20 Gonzales should also be fine. I'd keep an eye on Hinojosa, Ortiz, and Cuellar though simply because, as I said, they don't really have a lot to point at accomplishment wise, especially Ortiz who's 2006 numbers were VERY weak. It's getting time for him to retire. Both he and Hinojosa seem to view being congressman as a retirement job, more machine like operations. I expect both to close and win between 55% and 60%, maybe 54% for Ortiz.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

South Central Texas
Sort of watching Ranger-Yankees series on TV. One ad for Ciro, two for Canseco or whatever his name is, from national Repubs. Were they all on broadcast TV or what? Ciro does not rep this county where I am watching, or half of the county where San Antonio is the big city. Don't either of them know how to buy cable TV ads? I thought I was watching TBS, so it had to be cable. Why buy cable outside of the district?

Anyway, the Repub ad appeared to be based on a total and complete lie about Ciro and the Democrats spending taxpayer's money to help China -- hunh? -- and therefore probably very effective in this part of the country. So I dunno about Ciro. He would be the best Congressman in the state if he didn't have constant efforts to do him in.

Drove around part of Lloyd Doggett's district -- the part that does not matter, we hope. Yard signs supporting his opponent sprouted like weeds in small towns and along country roads. He may not carry a single county outside Austin's. But I expect he will win anyway.

Henry Cuellar seems to be holding his own in this part of the district, and this is the Central Texas end where the Repubs are strongest. If any Democrats at all vote in the border counties he will be OK. And they will.

[ Parent ]
Doggett
won Travis County by an eye-popping 74-22 margin in 2008. Three of the rural counties went for his opponent, even though he only got 30% districtwide. His opponent this time around would pretty much have to get 45% or so there to win, which seems unlikely.
[ Parent ]
Doggett will likely win but
His challenger is on the air two to three times for every one add that he has attacking her.  And I see her adds more than any other political adds this year.

On the flip side neither the DCCC or RCCC are running any adds, and both sides only have just 1 add that they are running.

However, the only thing that Doggett seems to have to attack her (Dr. Donna Campbell) on, is her wanting to cut atleast some (couldn't tell how much based on the add) federal spending for education.  And while that view certainly won't play well in downtown Austin, there are parts of the district where that add will only help her with some voters as well.

That said, given that a big part of Doggett's district is downtown Austin, I would certainly be surprised if he lost, but I wouldn't be shocked, as she obviously has more money than any of his recent opponents.

[ Parent ]
hard to see anyone on the radar but ortiz, ciro, and cuellar
ortiz drew a poll, but not a very credible one. ciro's a lackluster campaigner. cuellar's just in a tough district.

ortiz is the only one that keeps me up at night.  

[ Parent ]
Cuellar's in a tough district?
Since when is a district where the largest county is one that Obama carried with 71% tough?

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
It went for Bush twice
Though some of that may have been a home-state effect.
[ Parent ]
There's that
Bush actually had a pretty strong performance with Texas Hispanics in both of his runs for President, getting 42% in Webb County in both runs for President, but McCain was only able to get 28% there, and Rick Perry has never gotten more than 25% there in his two runs for governor.

There is SOME danger in that district in an off-year election; Guadalupe County cast around 6,000 more votes than Webb County in the 2006 election despite having about half the population, and it's a county where McCain got 64%.  But I do think that PVI kind of understates how Democratic the 28th (and the 15th, and the 27th, and the 16th) is.  Also, there aren't a whole lot of Republican officeholders in the border country.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
PVI's even...

[ Parent ]
As I pointed out above...
Bush did exceptionally well among Texas Hispanics, which you see in several South Texas districts that saw a big move toward Obama in '08.  That PVI is probably understated a bit.

There's some danger in an off-year election, when turnout in the border areas is generally lower, but Cuellar can count on huge margins in Webb, Starr, and Hidalgo to offset the turnout differential.  Guadalupe County is the only Republican area of any significant size in that district.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
PVI understates things
Bush did exceptionally well among Texas Hispanics (as I pointed out above) which no Republican politician has really been able to replicate, so the PVI probably understates that this is basically a Democratic district.

In an off year there's some danger (turnout in the border areas generally being low in off-year elections) but Cuellar can count on big margins in Webb, Starr, and Hidalgo to offset any Republican votes in the northern end of the district.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Dems On The List Worth Being A Little Nervous About....
TX-27....the only poll I saw showed Ortiz in trouble.  Without evidence to the contrary, we have to be prepared for the worst.  My thinking is an expected tight gubernatorial race could drive Hispanic voter turnout and save Ortiz.

IL-12....If Phil Hare's in trouble, Costello could be too.  Didn't even think of him before.

TN-05...At the top of the ballot is a blowout GOP gubernatorial race that will suppress Democratic turnout.  Kerry barely won this district.  All things considered, Cooper could be near the top of the list of vulnerables on here.

NY-02....Tom Suozzi.  'Nuff said.  Any speculation on whether ethnic bias could work against John Gomez?  I know in Minnesota in 1998, we got stuck with douchebag Republican Mary Kiffmeyer as Secretary of State for two terms because Democratic challenger Edwina Garcia underperformed Democrats in every other statewide race.

NY-09....Still got a bad feeling on this one.

PA-13....If Sestak's really on the move as the polls indicate, Schwartz should be fine.

MA-06....I think this one flips.

MA-05....I think this one flips.

OH-10....I've been on record for weeks with this one.

What is your rationale for MA-05 and MA-06 flipping?
Why aren't the Republicans spending here? Why isn't anyone spending here?

Don't drum up your little thing about how there are Democrats who forgot to poll their chances in 2010. That didn't happen. Especially in MA after that Brown special election.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
In MA-05.....
Tsongas' weak showing in the special election even in the very Democratic year of 2008 makes me believe she hasn't found her footing.  Plus a New York Times account I read on the district a few months back talked to a Democratic consultant who thought Tsongas was odds-on to lose.  I suppose it's heartening if her opponents are not on the air.  Ditto for Tierney's opponent.  Just seems like the Scott Brown win have awoken a sleeping giant in these more conservative-leaning Massachusetts districts.
[ Parent ]
Conservative leaning?
These districts are not conservative leaning, they are only less liberal than other districts.  Tsongas and Tierney will win, I'm fairly certain. Massachusetts has a lot of left leaning independents, which is why Brown was able to win. Independents were convinced that he is moderate and some Kennedy-reincarnation. The people running in these districts aren't nearly as good at projecting a moderate image as Brown and the incumbents in the district  aren't taken off guard. Especially Tierney who is airing very effective ads against Hudak all the time.
[ Parent ]
Yes, The Districts Lean Democrat.....
....but are they really liberal?  I don't know much about Niki Tsongas' politics, but her late husband was a very conservative Democrat, well to the right of Bill Clinton and Bob Kerrey in the 1992 Presidential primaries.  Is Paul Tsongas reflective of the tendencies of districts like MA-05 and MA-06 in that they've been Democratic for decades but are conservative at their core?  This has been my thinking in expecting the GOP to gain these seats this year, along with the general shrinking Democratic margins in the last three Presidential races in eastern Massachusetts.
[ Parent ]
No, Paul Tsongas wasn't "very conservative"
Calling Tsongas conservative would be like calling someone who is 6'5" "short" because he's in the NBA.
[ Parent ]
well he wasnt an F'ing
Santa Claus. 'Member? He kept telling us.
[ Parent ]
Paul Tsongas was a Gary Hart Democrat
and in some ways was the logical successor to Michael Dukakis.

If that's "very conservative," then I'm as conservative as Sarah Palin.

[ Parent ]
One interesting fact about Paul Tsongas.
He had as part of his platformw hen he ran for President in 1992 support for gay marriage.  I believe the only major candidate that year to do so.  And an issue he latched on to well ahead of it's time.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Another characteristic of true "new Democrats"
while more accepting of the free market / free trade, they're more into protecting civil liberties.

I think it's the mode that has made the Pacific coast the new bulwark of the Democratic party -- something that I think will be confirmed in a week.

[ Parent ]
Very True
That's something I've tried to mention a few times in the past when someone starts mentioning how "evil" the "Blue Dogs" are for supporting some economic measure.

The "New Democrats" in the House are technically the more fiscally conservative group of the two. Fiscally conservative in the sense of being in favor of free trade and other economic issues.

At the same time, as you mentioned, "New Democrats" are also much more socially liberal than "Blue Dogs".

New Democrats = Fiscally conservative / Socially liberal
Blue Dogs = Fiscally populist / Socially conservative

Those are just generalizations, because we can find members in both groups who do not fit those exact ideologies, but, overall, that's how both groups should be looked at. There are also some members, like John Barrow, that holds membership in both caucuses.

New Democrats are the heirs of the Third-Way/DLC approach to politics.

[ Parent ]
Tierney is in a district that did elect a Republican...
...Peter Torkildsen for four years.  Now to be fair.  1992 was against Mavroules who was an embarassment who deserved to lose and was indicted (and eventually convicted) for corruption.  And 1994 was a wave year where the same John Tierney who now holds the seat kept Torkildsen to nearly 50 percent.  And Torkildsen was a relatively moderate and a pretty decent representative.  Far different from the teabaggery Hudak.

That said the indictment and it's coverage have been pretty nasty.  I don't feel comfortable at all about this seat.

As for Niki I don't know.  It is strange that I can't find a single poll in a race that has received this much relative attention.  Being an incumbent is she more solidly entrenched or does that hurt her in such an anti-incumbent year?  I'll guess she'll be fine just because unlike others she seemed to know she'd have a race.  It's the folks who are snoozing and just woke up who worry me the most.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
It was 2007
and she came close to losing because the Dem machine didn't care for her and withheld support. That's not going to happen in a general election.
[ Parent ]
Tom Suozzi has absolutely nothing to do with Steve Israel...
His loss was his own doing, he took it as guaranteed and sat on his butt doing nothing.  A few hundred dollars out of his large campaign chest could have saved him.  He was busy hoarding it for it never-to-happen AG run.

Suffolk Dems held up fine since they actually campaigned, we had minimal losses, even in Republican strongholds.

Israel is safe.  No outside GOP investment, no outside ANY investment, no nothing.  

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
I don't buy Weiner being vulnerable.
Weiner has a lot of relatively conservative Jews, particularly ultra-Orthodox who vote en-mass, who decidedly did not like Obama and had respect for George W Bush in regards to the Middle East.  Those voters and more specifically their leaders are very much part of the Democratic machine and are perfectly comfortable with Weiner.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Weiner is safe
But if the district is in its current form it might be difficult to hold when he is elected mayor in 2013.  
[ Parent ]
You mean IF he's elected mayor!
His inability to win a primary last time doesn't inspire the kind of assumption you're making. And I say that as someone who voted for him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
TN-05
No.  Have you seen the guy who's running against Cooper?  Way too conservative for that district.  Cooper will win by a diminished margin, but I see no chance of that district flipping.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Cooper should be fine
I might feel a little more concern for Cooper if he was facing a moderate pro-business type Republican who could sell himself like Haslam has, but luckily for Cooper he has gotten a ultra conservative candidate who in a normal cycle would be 2nd tier candidate at best. Now never say never, but even the huge red wave that is sweeping Tennessee will need a special set of turn-out circumstances to allow Hall to beat Cooper.

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
What does Tom Suozzi
have to do with anything in the NY-02? Israel's district is in Suffolk, not Nassau.

As for ethnic bias against John Gomez, I don't think that's the case. This area might not be Berkeley, but it isn't Alabama, either.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Steve Israel
I'm in NY-3 (less than a mile from the NY-2 border) Israel is safe.  As far as the Suozzi comparison, keep in mind 90% of NY-2 is in Suffolk, not Nassau.  Nassau is generally more Democratic than Suffolk, but Israel's district is more Democratic than either.  Obama won Nassau by a little over 8 points, he won the 2nd by 13 (Suozzi did win the Nassau portion of the 2nd).

Also keep in mind turnout was extremely low last year and that is a big reason why Suozzi lost.  The Democrats will pile up huge margins on the top of the ticket in NY-02.

[ Parent ]
Re: NY-21
That was my old district before I headed off to college (I'm registered in Hinchey's district now). Tonko's running against a small businessman named Ted Danz. He seems like a very nice, not-crazy Republican, but I hadn't seen any television advertising when I was home few weeks back (Tonko, on the other hand, has been up with positive spots). I highly doubt this one's in play.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
NJ-09 - Steve Rothman
Where I'm from originally. Can't testify as to the strength of Rothman's campaign (or lack thereof), but I can say that this is a case where he is probably not in any danger. He potentially could have been if his opposition were stronger (i.e. Kathleen Donovan) but there were not only several challengers for the nomination, there was a probably above-average amount of bitterness:

http://www.politickernj.com/es...

The race got ugly, worse than most. Internet psychological warfare and Agosta infamously saying he would waterboard Rothman finally spilled onto a sidewalk in Elmwood Park on June 5th when Agosta's cadillac jumped a curb and brushed up against an Aslanian volunteer.

The case went to court last month and resulted in Agosta eating a careless driving charge.    

To put this in context, Agosta is the nominee.

Now, 99 percent of the general public has no clue that this ever happened, and 99 percent will continue to have no clue this ever happened. But I think it took the wind out of the sails of local Republican activists, donors, etc. early on in the game when they could have made a difference. (And you can bet if Rothman were in trouble, a whole lot less than 99 percent of the general public would have no clue this ever happened.) Rothman has had some sort of accusations of improprieties involving medical equipment (or something) companies, but they've not been of much consequence.

Electorally, not only is his opposition weak, but Rothman's strong as well. He has a pretty strong base of support as a former mayor of Englewood and judge (but don't they all) and his very... pro-Israel views are a good fit for the district, where a pretty big percentage of people voting R in presidential elections are Orthodox Jewish. He's a PVI outperformer (i.e., in 2004 winning 68-32 when Kerry won the district 59-41, and even winning in 1996 against Donovan in his first election (by 56-42)). This is not a very wave-sensitive district either; he got 70 percent of the vote in 2002, and 71 in 2006 (no idea as to the relative strength of his opponents in those races). Then again, every year his opposition feels like the Republicans this year in tone, it's just that they're consistently few in number.

I'm setting the over-under for this at 68 percent for Rothman. Some districts are "Jack Daniel's" districts; I'm calling this one a "plane ticket to Sweden for a long vacation" district, because if Rothman loses, you will see at least two-thirds of the House be Republicans.

tl;dr This one's a safe one. Thanks for this cattle call though; excellent idea.

Full disclosure; I interned at Rothman's district office last year; and of course the above represents my views alone and not those of any other person or organization.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

Rothman's on the air
...with a good radio ad (one amusing thing about life at the upper reaches of the NYC media market is that I get to hear ads for candidates in relatively far-off races). No idea about the ground game, but I think you're right about 68% being a good number here. Maybe that's a shade high, but if Rothman lost we'd be down to about a hundred or seats anyway.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  
[ Parent ]
NY-20
My friend is working with Murphy's campaign, and I was surprised that the district goes all the way down to right near Poughkeepsie (which I do consider upstate; then again I also consider anything above Westchester or Rockland upstate.)

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Re: CT-02,
Only public poll of Courtney was D+14 a couple weeks ago. He was at 55. This was from Merriman River Group, who polled statewide races at the same time, and came up with numbers slightly less Dem-friendly than other pollsters in the field simultaneously.

His opponent is a former news anchor. Her campaign just hasn't gotten off the ground. I read recently that she had ridiculously low COH, something in the 5 figures. She's also a little wacky.

Also, none of the right-leaning IE groups have gone on the air in the district (as far as I know), unlike in CT-04 and -05.

So, I think he's pretty safe. He won by a handful of votes four years ago, so I bet he's very pleased to have a little breathing room this cycle.

NJ-08
I'm not particularly worried, but was a little surprised to see a huge Pascrell billboard in Bloomfield when visiting a friend this weekend.  And there's a surprising number of Red-tinted political signs with Tea Party style slogans on its main drag (for a largely Dem-tilting town), but they seem mostly focused on smaller races and it could just be a very aggressive, but small group of people (and i could be misinterpreting their vague anti-tax-seeming phrases).
the reason is...
There is a very tough race for Passaic Sheriff and Freeholders this year.  Sheriff Speziale (D) was superpopular and supposed to head the county ticket, but he accepted a Port A position from Christie (without even warning the County Dem Chair)...

Pascrell is going to win big, and he's trying to save the the Sheriff's office and control of the County Govt with him.  Last year it was 7-0 Dem, but Christie did very well for Passaic Co. standards.  He narrowly lost the county, and the Republicans captured all three Dem seats on the board (not sure if all three were incumbent, but one was:  Tahesha Way, who was a Dem up-and-comer and was on short Lt Gov lists for Corzine in '09).  Along with Christie winning Middlesex County, the other biggest shock of the night was the Dems losing those three, especially Freeholder Way.  This year control is at stake, and the Dems don't have Speziale anymore.  The Repubs have a Latino candidate and it's going to be a battle.  

That's why Bill Jr. has been out and about a lot this fall...

Control is also at stake in Bergen County, and the County Exec Repub candidate, Kathe Donovan is extremely moderate (NJ's DeDe S.) and is leading the incumbent Dem by double digits.  She was a Repub short lister for Lt. Gov. last year, but probably was too moderate for the state GOP.

[ Parent ]
for a bit more color
Read this and bask in the craziness of NJ politics...Christie is pretty good at playing the game (read the comments too):

http://www.politickernj.com/sp...

[ Parent ]
Chris
Christie has managed to disarm the entire New Jersey Democratic party in less than one year. I've even heard that Cory Booker won't run against Christie in 2013 because he has so much respect for the man.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Booker Christie
It would be very tough for Booker to challenge him in '13 with all interviews the two of them are doing together.  (Though 2 1/2 years is an eternity in politics.)  To his credit, Christie is trying to give Booker more power over the city of Newark (esp. the schools) than many govs have in the past.  It doesn't hurt that Christie has a best friend type relationship with Joe DiVencenzo, the popular Essex Co Exec (Dem).  Joe D actually was out this week lecturing the Democratic legislature to get moving on Christie's municipal toolkit.  Christie also seems to have support from a couple of minority female legislators, Teresa Ruiz (D-Newark) and Sandra Cunningham (D-Jersey City).  Not exactly the coaltion you'd expect.

Your broader point is well taken;  I have never seen a governor facing a opposing party majority in both houses get basically 100% of what he wanted in the state budget.  

I hope somebody is writing a book about Christie's first year in office in NJ.  If not, I might have to put one together.  The behind-the-scenes stuff is 1000x more interesting (and impressive) than the public stuff that the Conservatives around the country are salivating about.

[ Parent ]
the legislature didn't submit an alternative budget
and when voting on overturning a veto on funding women's health, some GOPers flip-flopped.

they should have submitted an alternative budget that was a compromise between what he wanted and what they wanted, stand firm on it, and then voted it through and dared him to veto it

also, they didn't want to do a shutdown because that would help Christie more than it would help them and because shutdowns are for partisan hacks like Gingrich

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I'd like Christie if he toned it down.
Also, he's still Rove's pet and was complicit in the U.S. Attorney firings, so he can't act all holy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I would like him if he didn't hate on unions so much.
I know unions need to be made to renegotiate their terms with the state during times like these, but they are not vermin.  Indeed they should have taken the compromise deal to temporarily freeze health benefits, but he can't constantly think they are enemies, that only widens the chasm between them.  He needs to be more willing to compromise and understand his budget is merely passing the buck down to the towns, it isn't making our problems vanish.

Also, his bungling of the Race to the Top forms really put a sour taste in our mouths.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
if by complicit
You mean that he was originally ON the list of US Attorneys to be fired...that was his only link to that scandal.  

Rove and he talked about running for governor when he was still Atty., which Corzine tried to make an issue of during the campaign, but it fizzled.  I'm curious where you get that he was complicit in the firing scandal though....

http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...


[ Parent ]
The point is that I'm sick of his attitude.
And he was on no list to be fired if you read that article.  He was actually listed as being loyal to Bush, which in the wake of the politically-motivated firings against those that refused to shut down organizations that register poor people to vote, puts a cloud over that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
"He was on no list to be fired..."
From the article:
.........
But they appear to do little to explain why Christie was later listed among those considered for firing in January and November 2006, according to the documents. His status changed yet again by December 2006, when he was not among the seven prosecutors dismissed.
.........
He was on a list for almost 1 year.
[ Parent ]
Complicit was the wrong word
but anyone who is "loyal" to Bush is not something to be proud about considering their crimes against human rights.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Maryland 3 & 2
MD-03: John Sarbanes should not be in any trouble he is running against a man named Jim Wilhelm.
Md-02: Dutch Ruppersberger seems like he is going to win too. This race is being contested though as some outside ads have appeared on air against Dutch, Ruppersberger launch an new ad  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... and his opp. Marcelo Cardarelli launched a one min. ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... This is a page I found about featuring Cardarelli http://www.umm.edu/doctors/mar... . Obama won 60% of the vote in the 2nd in 2008. Also of note much land area in the 2nd was (before Ruprpersberger)represented in Congress by Robert Ehrlich (R), who was elected governor in 2002, defeated in 2006, and is running this year. Ruppersberger will probally get between 55 to 63 percent of the vote.

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)
Nothing To See Here
Almost all the political ads on TV in Baltimore are in one of three races:
Ehrlich/O'Malley in MD-Gov;
Harris/Kratovil in MD-01;
Or the "Slots at Arundel Mills Mall" referendum in Anne Arundel County.

I've seen a couple of Ruppersburger's spots but none for his opponent Cardarelli and have not seen anything about MD-03, from either Sarbanes or challenger David Wilhelm.  Neither Sarbanes nor his opponent have many lawn signs around these parts either. (For comparison's sake, Ehrlich has a lot of signs and O'Malley gotten into the game too.)

In theory they could be competitive districts in the right circumstances since both have some GOP areas in Anne Arundel County and some places in the east of Baltimore County where Republicans have been doing well at the top level (McCain and Ehrlich especially, but Bush too) but not so much down ballot. But there's not much GOP bench here so someone would really have to catch fire to pose a big threat to either MD-02 or MD-03.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
TX 27
Farenthold isn't a compelling opponent at all.  Ortiz will pull it out by the same 58-60% margin he always does.

Conservative Democrat, Tx 27
Oddly
The worst that could happen to Farenthold was probably that partisan poll release showing him ahead. It shone attention on him and what a joke he is (or would appear to be)
[ Parent ]
But what about the ducky pajamas?
Surely, in this super Republican year voters will consider him a "man of the people" and that has to add 35 hidden points to any polling.  
Therefore, using some other totally arbitrary criteria, I classify this seat Likely Republican.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
I'd say
Ortiz will win with more like 55%, down from his normal levels.  Actually he's only gotten 58% in the last two elections; before that he was normally winning with over 60% (and his district wasn't changed much by the 2003 redistricting, so you can't blame that.)

I think Ortiz is vulnerable, particularly in 2010, but Farenthold is the wrong candidate to do it.  If Republicans could find a competent Hispanic candidate they might be able to pull it off.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Farenthold has no ground game
Republicans in the district are concentrated in the northern section in the Corpus Christi Bay Area.  Farenthold doesn't have money, advertising, or a ground game.  Is he better than Willie Vaden (Ortiz's opponent multiple times)... yes.  But the local republicans aren't even using their infrastructure to support him.  They are working to defeat a state rep in northwest Corpus Christi and leaving Blake to do his own thing (poorly).  When the best he can do is bring Joe Barton down for a fundraiser... he has a problem.

Conservative Democrat, Tx 27
[ Parent ]
Plus
those photos of Farenthold in pajamas with a scantly dressed woman didn't help.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Were either of them married?
If so, yeah, I get it. If not, why do people care? Is that district full of Evangelicals?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Uh, no.
I believe the vast majority of voters in that district would be Catholics.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Point exactly.
Farenthold isn't really a serious candidate.  Like I said, Republicans could give Ortiz a stiff challenge with the right candidate, but so far they haven't been able to do that (part of the problem is there aren't very many Republican officeholders in that area.)

It wouldn't be terribly surprising if Farenthold won Nueces County, but Ortiz will rack up huge margins in Cameron County and it should be more than enough to win.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
WA Races
Inslee (WA-1) and Dicks (WA-6) are fine, facing severely underfunded opponents, and tellingly no major outside groups bothering to intervene in an attempt to make them a race.

Didn't see it on your list, but some rumors a few weeks ago re Smith (WA-9) being in potential trouble, some internal poll or whatnot showing it close.  Again, Smith has a big $$ edge and haven't seen any outside ads for that race. The district has a slight D lean, Smith hasn't really been challenged in years, but not a district you can take for granted.

At least in theory, Inslee and Smith could be in trouble
as they represent districts that are similar to those lost in '94.

(s/b easy trivia question -- what current federal official lost Inslee's district in '94, after winning it in '92?)

[ Parent ]
All too easy
Maria Cantwell, the kickass senator from the Evergreen State. Gives me hope that some of our one-term wonders might still do well in the future (Tom Perriello for Governor?)

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Perriello is awesome.
He's a fundraising and campaigning master, and all-around likable guy.  He is very good at reaching out to people, even the tea party.  I wish he would have another term, but he has gotta run for governor.  Kookinelli will probably run on the GOP side and he is much more beatable than McDonnell and Perriello is no Creigh Deeds.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Kookinelli was a threat when no one knew who he was
and could hide his crazy in the State Senate. I figure at this point he's caused enough scandal that it'll be hard for him to shake the image of a pure right-winger in a general and will cost him support of his base in Fairfax. Perriello should do well against him.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
If
George Allen wasn't planning for a rematch against Jim Webb, I could of seen Kookinelli running for the senate since Bill Bolling has the governor's office staked out in 2013. Hell if the tea party is still strong in 2012 Kookinelli would make the perfect tea party candidate. Hehe...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Kook will run in 2013
Bolling is a complete empty suit, Kook will steamroll him in the primary/convention. His ambition isn't to be Senator, he wants to be President. He's already started laying the groundwork; he's been campaigning for Attorney General candidates in other states, like Alabama and... Iowa.
[ Parent ]
And as
Bill Maher once said, "I'd like to be adopted by Angelina Jolie, but that's not going to happen."

How would you rate his chances? Also, how would you rate Allen's chances of getting back in? From what I know of it, Virginia is very different depending on what part you're in, but NoVa has been growing much, much more quickly than the rest of the state, and it's trending blue. Allen's got a longer history in the state than his time as senator, but he doesn't seem to be famous for anything other than (a) being obsessed with the Confederacy despite growing up in California and Chicago and (b) going down for using a racial epithet. It wouldn't surprise me if he manages to secure the nomination--if O'Donnell can beat Castle, nothing surprises me--but I am not sure why anyone would elect him again. From what I know of him, Webb seems to be a good fit for Virginia.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Can't really say re: governor
For the 30-odd years in Virginia, whichever party wins the presidency loses the governor's race the next year, so that trend may continue in 2013. McDonnell has had a rocky first year -- his signature campaign plank, privatizing liquor sales, has gone down in flames, with opposition from both parties. He's still pretty popular, but unless he rights his ship soon he won't be for much longer. And there's still no clear field for Governor on the Dem side, and probably won't be until after the 2012 elections.

Allen, unfortunately, is probably about a 50/50 shot for getting his seat back. Voters barely threw him out in 2006, and as we've seen, they have incredibly short memories. Webb has been steadily shifting to the right over the past year or two in anticipation of a tough re-election fight. If HCR is still a big issue in 2012, his vote could come back to haunt him. And a lot of it depends on whether Obama can rehabilitate his standing with the voters.

[ Parent ]
How has
Webb been shifting to the right? I don't mean this in a hostile way; I am just not that close to Virginia politics.

I know voters didn't throw out Allen by much, but does a challenger aside from, say, someone like Rick Santorum ever go down in flames? In other words, it'd be much more surprising if Webb won by anything more than a few points, especially in a state that is trending blue but isn't doing it that quickly.

And doesn't the strength of NoVa count at all? It seems like Webb, to whatever the extent that he has to shift with the political winds, wouldn't have to change that much if he's trying to appeal to that area, which is where the votes seem to be.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Came out against cap and trade pretty early on in the debate
And he was waffling on DADT until he finally voted to get it out of committee. There are one or two other things that he's done that I can't think of at the moment. He's not going Ben Nelson or anything, but there has been a perceptible shift in his positions in this Congress compared to the previous one.

Democrats shouldn't count on NoVa to blindly vote for them. As we saw in 2009, the voters there can just as easily swing to the Republicans. I certainly don't think Webb will have the multitude of problems Deeds did, but he's still going to have to rack up a huge margin in Fairfax, and either win or keep Prince William and Loudoun close to win again.

[ Parent ]
I don't see Webb as shifting to the right
He was pretty far right to begin with; it's just that running against George Allen made him look reasonable.

I do think, though, that Webb has a Feingold-ish loose cannon side to his politics.

[ Parent ]
If Perriello doesn't run for govenror, I'll fume.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well...
If Perriello decides to continue in politics, he has two immediate options: State Senate next year (Creigh Deeds is likely retiring) or statewide office in 2013. Of course, he's young enough that he can drop out of politics for a while and come back, but his star might fade in the interim.

However, for Governor, I expect Terry McAuliffe is going to run again, unfortunately. Dickie Cranwell, the useless chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia, is retiring, and Warner/Kaine are pushing Brian Moran as the candidate to take over from him, so that will be an uncomfortable pairing in three years.

[ Parent ]
I spent my summer in Southside
volunteering for Perriello, and I got to know some of his higher-up staffers that he's close to, and they seemed to think that he'd be interested in running for governor.

As for his current race, I wouldn't count him out quite yet. There's a number of colleges and universities in his district (Longwood, UVA, Averett) that are going to lean left, especially UVA. (Of course, there's also the lovely Liberty University...) Also, Tom has a really solid GOTV operation. He's got seven or eight campaign offices open across the district, and his supporters were really willing to come in to volunteer when asked - people really do feel that they make a difference when the margin of victory is less than 1,000 votes.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9

[ Parent ]
From living in the area, I'd say
Inslee is defintely safe. Smith's district would fall first. Inslee's district is actually quite liberal. Smith's is more swingy and it wouldn't totally shock me if he lost, but I definitely think he is the favorite.

I'm guessing Dicks is definetly safe too. As someone noted above, he got 56% in a jungle prtiamry with a lot more incentive for GOP voters to turn out (Senate primary with Dino Rossi and teabagger Clint Didier).

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Pretty much
The suburbs directly to the north of Seattle are only somewhat less liberal than the city proper. Smith's district contains a lot of blue-collar areas that lean Democratic, but not terribly strongly.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
I don't buy your rationale w/r/t Inslee
So why did Cantwell lose in '94? Rick Scott didn't strike me as particularly moderate. Sure, there's a higher PVI now (+9 v +3), but I think that's a function of better performance of Obama v. Dukakis.
[ Parent ]
meant Rick White
must have FL on the brain....
[ Parent ]
Not really
Are you familiar with the area?

I actually would guess that the population has changed quite a lot since '94. Metro Seattle (but NOT the state of WA as a whole) is like California in that it has become more liberal since the early 90s because of population shifts.

But really, my reasons are as follows:

1) I know the areas he represents, and they are basically liberal suburbs - places like Bainbridge Island, part of Kirkland, Redmond, the suburbs just north of Seattle like Shoreline. Basically, high Asian population, lots of young people who would like to live in Seattle, but moved north because its cheaper (to buy a house). Places like Shoreline are really the same as Seattle north of 65th St. - in other words, 70/30 D/R.

2) No funding or ads focused on the district.

3) Inslee got above 55% in a jungle primary in August where GOP interest was inherently higher because of competitive senate primary (plus GOP voters more tuned in earlier in general).

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
The PVI numbers I cite, corrected for Obama's performance
suggests otherwise (relative to say Clinton in '96)

What I'm not sure about is the relative makeup of King and Snohomish in the district, pre- and post- '00 redistricting. Nevertheless, the corrected PVI numbers do not match what you suggest.

I think the closer analogy is to OR-01. Certainly a D advantage, though not a huge one. While high-tech and liberal interests often match, they are far from identical. (I lived in Snohomish side of the district in the mid-90s, and didn't see what you're claiming.)

[ Parent ]
TX-28
So, I found this gem on the website of Henry Cuellar's opponent:

"Years ago, as a young man, I damaged another man's car in an attempt to keep that man from wrecking my marriage."

Uh... yeah.  I mean, I guess to some people that's an acceptable thing to do.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

Negative advertising
Cueller put out a mailer with a less modest description of his opponent's arrest record. iirc the judge told him to pay up for the damages to the car and he has never done so. So even if it was 20 years ago or so, I'd say the past record will not help him in this race.

Of course the Repubs are at least as crazy as usual, but unusually for an off-year, Democrats in this area feel very good about Bill White for Governor. Even if White does not pull off the win, Democrats are feeling good about voting for him.

I think Cuellar will benefit from that turnout effect among usually discouraged Anglo Democrats, and I hope it motivates the Hispanics as well.

[ Parent ]
Reply IN-01
With do respect Visclosky's opponent is a joke who is not actively campaigning as far as I know. That's what I've heard anyway. The guy has been the R nominee for a decade. He has literally been running for Congress for TEN years. While I have never met him from what I have heard he is not at all serious. I am no Visclosky fan but in all reality he is fairly well liked there and while he is corrupt the whole area is a big bucket of corruption and he is not that bad considering. Visclosky will win with 65-70 percent of the vote. Also check out this Washington post profile naming him one of the safest dems with good background on this district.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

McGovern and Neal are both sure things
I live in McGovern's district and am close to Neal's, and there's been little in the way of action on the GOP side in either one. Tsongas and Tierney have a little more to be worried about because they have somewhat better opponents and somewhat shakier districts. If any incumbent were to lose, I'd say it would be Tsongas first, then Tierney. (but then again, Barney Frank's in for a tougher election than usual this year as well.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
MA-02 is the great GOP recruitment failure
Neal waffled on Health-Care and Stupak, and has never been that secure, the seat went heavily for Brown, and there is a GOP bench. Had someone like Brian Lees run he would have been in real trouble. That said, if Tisei were running against Tierney instead of for LG that seat would be near-gone at this point with the indictment stuff.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Neal's waffles got no press here
In fact, Neal hardly ever gets press here. He's the second-most anonymous member of the delegation, after Tsongas, who has only been around for 3 years.

Springfield makes this a tough district for the GOP. Also, it's a hard district to campaign in because its eastern and western ends have nothing in common. Theoretically, the best GOP candidate would come from the southern Worcester suburbs, consolidate the entire eastern half of the district, and hope that Neal doesn't run up ridiculous margins in Springfield and Northampton.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
The Reason I mentioned Lees
Is because he has won county-wide as a Republic
an in Hampden, and therefore can hold the democratic margin down in Springfield while running the table else-ware. At least in theory. In practice its a bit harder.

That said the greater problem for the GOP is that to the extent they had a bench, it was in MA-06, and Tierney, pre-scandal, I would venture, was among the strongest incumbents in the delegation. He still has very positive relations with local Republicans which is one reason Hudak is not getting the degree of traction Bielet is. Furthermore, a wounded Tierney is too tempting to allow someone like Hudak to win. Kerry Healey has been expressing interest in the seat for the last week or so, and arguably has had her eye on it since 2000.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
MA-06
It may not be the strongest GOP pickup opportunity in the Bay State from a PVI point of view, but the GOP bench is deeper here than it is anywhere else in the state. There's a half dozen people - you mentioned Healey, but she's not the only one - who've gotta be kicking themselves they only would have had to gotten by lunatic fringer Bill Hudak in order to take on a scandal-tainted Tierney in a GOP wave year.


36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
On Springfield:
Doesn't the city of Springfield still have an antique Democratic machine that is somewhat powerful and influential?
[ Parent ]
Yes, I believe
I've actually never been to Springfield except to go to the Basketball Hall of Fame once, and don't know that much about it. But I do believe that it has a pretty strong Democratic machine, as do Worcester, Lowell, Lawrence, and of course, Boston.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Of course its loyalty is open to question
The city did go for Cellucci in 1998, and Republicans have won here. Most recently Brian Lees as Hampden Clerk in 2008. The Senate race numbers here and in MA-05 are almost identical.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
NY-02
I live in this district. If Steve Israel loses, the Democrats have probably lost at least 75 seats, if not 100, and have possibly even taken the Senate. It was supposedly changed to his advantage back in 2002m, when New York lost a seat or two, but even with some fairly strong Republican presence despite the Democratic edge, he's safe. He won by 34 points in 2004, even as Bush did better in Suffolk County and New York as a whole. He won by 40 points in 2006, and slid down in 2008, all the way back down to 34 points.

I've seen a few signs for his opponent, John Gomez, and received a few mailings from both Gomez and Israel himself. But I have yet to see a television commercial, whereas I have seen and heard ads for/against Tim Bishop (NY-01) and Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04). (Interestingly enough, my town's homecoming parade was today, and I was in Starbucks reading and overheard some Gomez people talking. That was the first I had seen of either side on the ground, although it is very possible I missed something.) Israel has a more than $2 million cash-on-hand advantage, according to The New York Times.

I guess I should never say never. After all, this area was once solidly Republican, but really, if it goes down this year, I will be astonished. Bishop isn't going down, either, and he's supposedly much more likely than Israel.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Blah,
I misread the site. Israel has about $750,000 cash-on-hand, but that's still more than double what Gomez has raised in entirety for the campaign.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
MA-05
I used to live near that area and have spent some time there, so I agree with other commenters that Tsongas might be in more trouble than is generally acknowledged. The problem is that she has a bad reputation for taking her races for granted and being a high maintenance b---- who expects to be treated like royalty because she's a Senator's wife, which hasn't endeared her to anyone on her team. Shades of Coakley, in other words.  

Also, her district, while solidly Democratic at the Presidential level, is pretty ancestrally Republican, and is filled with exactly the sort of clueless rich suburban voters who will turn against Dems in a bad year.

I think "Unpleasantly arrogant Dems who take their re-elections for granted" is going to be a theme among those supposedly safe D's who actually lose on election night. I'm also thinking of Gene Taylor and Maurice Hinchey in this category, but I've got a feeling Tsongas could be on that list, too. (Maybe also Tierney. Possibly McGovern. Not Frank - I've lived in MA-04 and he'll be fine.)  

And re: MA-02 because I spent much of my life in an adjacent district....I don't know anything about Neal's race this cycle, but I do wonder what his voting for the Stupak amendment does to his re-election numbers that far west of Worcester. He's got a pretty large minority population in his district, too (by western MA standards), and they can't be too impressed by him this cycle.

MA is just a pain in the butt to predict this cycle, other than MA-10 which I think goes Republican. (The polls showing the D ahead don't show third parties).  

What is being spent on behalf
of her opponent? I know some money was dropped against Hinchey, by Rove's group I think, but it doesn't seem to be a top concern for either side. I imagine a lot of these districts are the same: a concern, but only in the even of a complete meltdown.

As for MA-10, how big of a problem will the strip search issue be?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
MA Seats
I'd agree with you that Tsongas might be one of those "arrogant" Dems who end up getting caught in a closer race than they expect, but McGovern certainly isn't. In fact, he's probably one of the hardest working Dems I know. If he goes down, it's not because he failed to outwork his opponent.

If I had to guess, though, I don't think Republicans will gain any Congressional seats here in MA. Their best chance by far was MA-10, and they royally screwed up by nominating Jeff Perry, who will not win after the latest revelations about his oversight of a strip-search of a 14-year old girl (it's not a pretty story).

31, Male, Democrat, RI-01

[ Parent ]
hoyapaul
this is totally off-topic, but i'm assuming that you went/go to georgetown.  i'm about to apply there, and i've never met anyone who went there recently. i kinda wanna know more about it. could you email me your thoughts at jncca@aol.com. it would help me a bunch :)

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
G'Town
I'd love to help you out, but I didn't go to Georgetown undergrad (I went to the law school, which is in Capitol Hill, not the Georgetown area). So I don't have much to offer about the ugrad program, except to say that D.C. is a great place to go to school!

31, Male, Democrat, RI-01
[ Parent ]
I agree on McGovern
MA-03 was once a swing seat despite its PVI, and McGovern is much, much more liberal than the median voter in the district. But he's safe because he's very visible in the district, has excellent constituent services, and has built very strong ties to the Worcester political establishment.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I never said McGovern was arrogant.
I said Tsongas was arrogant. Which she is.

McGovern is one of the few members of the MA delegation who I have some respect for. (Olver, Frank, and Capuano are the others - the rest of the delegation seems mostly like dead wood to me.)

I do remember reading on Kos that his race was more competitive that it should be, though that might've been hyperbole. And I don't trust Worcester voters in general farther than I can throw them.

I still think MA-10 is in play because of all of the strong Dems running as indies, none of whom actually appear in polls of the race. As in FL-Sen, too many good candidates lead to an absolute scumbag being elected with less than a plurality.

I can see one other Eastern district dropping as well, but truth is it probably won't.  

[ Parent ]
Let's be fair to Neal...
Ask 100 voters what the Stupak Amendment is and you might get 1 or 2 that know.  If he was in some heated primary where his opponent was hitting over the the head with it, that'd be one thing.  Think about it, Lynch voted against the WHOLE THING and it's probably not going to do anything to hurt him in the general.  Lynch is D+11, Neal D+9 so the difference isn't striking.

One other thing about Mass.  It's neat that the indy groups that want to spend on state races have to put the leader of their group's voice approving the message and their HEADSHOT on the screen.  I've seen attack ads on Baker from Bay State Future and Mass Teachers Assoc.  

[ Parent ]
If, as expected, Mass loses another seat in 2012
I could see Tsongas being the victim.
[ Parent ]
Probably not, actually.
If MA-10 goes Republican, you can bet the Dem trifecta will eliminate that seat. That's common sense that even New England Dems will follow....most of the time.

If it doesn't, the parochialism of Massachusetts politics dictates that MA-01 be eliminated because a.) Boston hates the Berkshires and b.) "revenge" for Coakley being from Western MA, when the Eastern MA establishment did absolutely nothing for Capuano to assure that the better candidate advanced through the primary.

The end result is we probably lose John Olver, one of the best people in the House - period - simply because western MA doesn't hit some Boston bureaucrat's G-spot.

Tsongas will never be eliminated because she's a high-society drama queen who knows all of the right people. It's that simple.

[ Parent ]
Coakley
I thought Coakley was Middlesex County (Cambridge) D.A. prior to being Attorney General.
[ Parent ]
She's from Medford, not Cambridge
and she probably has a stronger association with North Adams, where she grew up (that's in Western MA).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hinchey Showing More Signs of Running
Here in NY-22, Hinchey shows more signs of campaigning.  Basically all he has to do is make sure that people know George Phillips, his opponent, is a supporter of hydrofracking, and that should solidify his support in the rural parts of his district.  Hinchey's support has always been good in the small urban areas of his district (Binghamton is the largest) and of course he will have massive support (70-80%) in Ithaca.
[ Parent ]
Now that I've seen the results of the last week or so,
I think Hinchey squeaks by.

Taylor, on the other hand, is toast.  

[ Parent ]
Feeling Better about Hinchey
I thought his problems were going to snowball, but things seem to be plateauing. His loss still wouldn't shock me, but the Phillips momentum that I expected to emerge simply hasn't. I'd probably tilt this one back our way.

I do wonder if a 2012 retirement is in the offing, given Hinchey's problems and the fact that an upstate district has to be eliminated. Democratic Ulster, Newburgh and Poughkeepsie could end up in Murphy or Hall's districts (assuming they survive) while Ithaca and Binghamton could end up with Arcuri. I'm assuming Reps take back the State Senate - albeit narrowly - and that we end up with another incumbent-protection map for Congress.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

[ Parent ]
RI-02
I live in RI-01 (the Patrick Kennedy seat, now open), but I don't think Republican Mark Zaccaria is much of a threat to Jim Langevin in RI-02. I don't know Zaccaria (I've never met him and I don't know how "quality" he is), but I can say that he's been mostly invisible, a reflection of his poor fundraising all cycle. He was trounced by over a 2-1 margin in 2008 by Langevin, and even in a better Republican year I'll be shocked if he cracks 40% in this solidly Democratic district.

31, Male, Democrat, RI-01
Wow, another RI-01er!
Yeah, Zaccaria is about as some-dudey/also-ran-y as they get. I get the feeling that about 1% of the population loves him, 15% will vote for him just because he is Republican, and maybe another 15% will vote for him just because they're sick of Democrats, but everyone else is voting for Langevin. This summer I was driving to Jamestown and somewhere along the way (maybe around East Greenwich or South County?) I saw a bunch of people waving signs for him, but for all I know those were him and family members. Langevin is safe, and IMO so is Cicilline.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Didn't see your comment
'till now. Always good to see another Ocean Stater around!

At least we (along with our two neighboring states) resisted the Repub wave...

31, Male, Democrat, RI-01

[ Parent ]
MA-7

Nothing doing here- Ed Markey vs unknown sacrificial lamb.  In this district the Republican candidates haven't put their party on their signs for years.

There's more drama going on next door in MA-8 (Niki Tsongas), but it's that desultry working class exurb and blighted former industrial town stuff.  She's not quite right for the district and so her margins will always be disappointing.  But I don't see her losing.

All the real fun's going on in MA-10. Perry is handicapped by that stupid police station strip search incident twenty years ago which he has never made the effort to clear up satisfactorily, so I don't see him pulling over any substantial number of indies or Democratic leaners.  It's a 55/45 district iirc and it looks to go to Keating by a few points- maybe five to eight.

Barney Frank is going to squeeze by one more time, but he's getting a bit old mannish and worn down by chairing the Banking Committee.  He's getting impatient with his district and it with him, and it's changing.  So there's a mismatch forming.  The grumbling he's facing this year is a sign.  I think the best thing would be for him to retire in '12- maybe to run against Scott Brown- and let the district get split up.

MA-04's a weird district.
No way Newton and Brookline should be in the same district as New Bedford and parts of the south coast.

I agree - Frank should retire in 2012. Quit while he's ahead. But he won't run for Senate. He's too old and cranky, and Capuano gets first dibs because the machine completely screwed him over for Chokeley in the special last year.

To be honest, I think 2012 is going to be a big year for key Democratic retirements. I don't see a lot of the older Blue Dogs on the NRCC's target list filing to run again either. Either they lose next week, or a lot of them that survive (Skelton, Boswell) decide to pack it in. And then there's Rangel - his machine is crumbling after decades, and even he might retire rather than face a primary challenge. Between that and the fact that the Blue Dogs are going to be nearly halved while the Progressive caucus stays about the same, the new House Democratic caucus might look a lot better than the old one, regardless of who's actually running the chamber. Though of course that depends on Steny Hoyer (aka Harry Reid 2.0) NOT being Dem leader. Which he probably will be. Sigh.  

[ Parent ]
NV-01: GOP's ONLY hope of winning there...
Was in taking down Harry Reid in a landslide. Perhaps if Sue Lowden hadn't brought about "Barter-gate", Shelley Berkley could have been in for a rougher time than usual in NV-01. But since "The Reid Machine" is working overtime to defeat Angle, it's also benefitting Berkley in that most of the strongest "Reid base" areas are in NV-01. The (always laughably incompetent) NV GOP tried to make noise about playing in NV-01 back in March, but especially once "Reid rose from the dead", the Dem ground game kicked into high gear, and the NV GOP was left with serial also-ran Ken Wegner (his campaign signs tout him as "MILITARY VETERAN!" and "CORRUPTION FIGHTER!", but no one cares b/c Shelley always wows her audience with her signature red pumps, flashy casino host smile, and larger than life 'tude that's gotten her plenty of "juice" in Congress) as this year's NV-01 sacrificial lamb.

Berkley will win comfortably again this year... And if Reid wins NV-Sen by a bigger margin than the pundits expect, it will likely be due to NV-01 turning out in bigger numbers than expected, meaning Shelley will win in a crushing landslide.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

How is the NV GOP laughably incompetent
A lot of the recent chatter talks about how weak the state party is, but if they're really so incompetent then how did Bush win the state twice, and how did the Republicans get by with minimal losses in 2006. It wasn't until Obama that Dems really cleaned up in the state. Is the GOP's weakness there a recent phenomenon?

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
fractured?
I think fractured would be a better term than incompetent.  If they were so incompetent, they wouldn't be ready to romp to their 4th straight Governor's race victory.  To be fair, I wish someone like Berkeley was running for Governor.  I think they'd have a much better chance at a pickup.  I don't know how the NV Democrats thought the father/son tandem was going to play for a sweep.  Granted, you can't force Rory to not run, but powerful people (dad?) could have convinced him to hang on.  It was pretty clear that Gibbons wasn't going to be the (R) nominee the whole way, so it was never going to be a walkover, and the father/son thing is just a little odd for a lot of voters, especially indies, and especially after Bush.  Just my opinion!!
[ Parent ]
I don't understand how the NV Dems picked Rory
The fact that Harry Reid was in trouble was pretty obvious long ago. How did it not occur to primary voters that Rory was DOA? Was Sandoval so intimidating that he scared off all other challengers? Did voters have some special attachment to Rory other than being a Reid?

I just don't get how primary voters could shoot themselves in the foot like that.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Dem primary voters, I mean
The GOP base has been exceptional at shooting themselves in the foot and every other body part this year.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Simple, they did NOT pick Rory...
Rory demanded to run, and the party had no choice but to force (outgoing Assembly Speaker) Barbara Buckley out of race, keep the field entirely clear, and give Rory what he wanted. Even when Harry begged his son NOT to run this year, Rory wanted to do it anyway. He thought Gibbons would survive the GOP primary, so he had nothing to worry about...

Until a few GOP bigwigs convinced Brian Sandoval to run.

And no, there weren't any other real choices. Yes, "The Angry Professor", Fred Conquest of CSN infamy, was running... But he had no coherent platform, and his ONLY consistent message was "I'm NOT a Reid!" It helped him in the rurals, but everywhere else people just tuned him out. When he endorsed the Green Party Gubernatorial nominee, David Curtis, after the primary, no one cared. The only publication that even reported it was Las Vegas CityLife.

Remember, Nevada is NOT California. You may think you already know it, but it's easy to forget the real differences until one lives here. I've learned the hard way. You can't just do whatever you want in the primary. And over here, party leadership wouldn't even allow 1/4 of the shenanigans that pop up at every California Democratic Party convention or e-board meeting.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
i didn't realize that Rory...
was such a dick. Be honest, he wouldn't be where he is without his dad.  And still he won't listen to anyone (even his father) suggesting he wait a little longer?  Like maybe until his dad had left the stage?
[ Parent ]
Well, Rory considers himself...
His own person. Ask him, and he'll say he got his high-powered lawyer gig and his seat on the Clark County Commission all on his own. Of course, we all realize that it never hurts to have "juice" backing one up.

And remember, this was NOT the first time Rory didn't follow Harry's advice. In 2007, when Harry was privately encouraging Obama to run for President while publicly remaining neutral, he urged Rory to stay neutral as well. Rory ended up endorsing Hillary Clinton and throwing his full weight behind Hillary.

I guess Rory was just getting impatient, and honestly I can understand. Yet again, he didn't listen when Harry told him that the Clark County Commission has always been problematic and often becomes a political "career killer". But again, Rory ran anyway in 2002... And he learned the hard way how much of a hot mess county government can actually be. Even though he was not there for "G Sting", he still gets hit with the scandal surrounding three other commissioners who were convicted for accepting bribes from stripper clubs. And even though the UMC county hospital has been bleeding red ink and plagued with patient care scandals for decades, the blame is now being saddled on Rory because not much of anything has happened under his watch. And even though he's tried to curb "development mania", he's nonetheless blamed for the real estate bubble and over-construction fiasco. Basically, Clark County government is incredibly screwy and I wouldn't be surprised if Rory has tired of it long ago.

Again, he had a two-fold problem of sharing the ballot of his dad and losing Gibbons as his rival. There was so much talk earlier of Rory running away from Harry, but now it looks like Harry is winning over key crossover R's while Rory has barely consolidated the D base.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
and dumb
He announced in October of 2009, at which time Gibbons approvals were already in the 20s or lower.  I suppose he could have thought he had nothing to worry about, the same way Rick Lazio was betting on facing David Paterson.  

And wow, Rory only got 70% of the primary vote, 15% for the Some Dude, and 15% Neither.

[ Parent ]
And where did Rory get all this power?
You make it sound like Harry and the state party were completely powerless to do anything but whatever Rory demanded. Rory's power seems to come from his association with his father, so how does he muscle out an Assembly Speaker if his father, who dominates the party, is against it?


24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
B/c his dad wouldn't sabotage him like that...
Even if he disagreed with his son's decision.

Again, there's a history of Father and Son parting ways. It happened when Rory decided to run for Clark County Commission instead of Assembly. It happened again when Rory endorsed Hillary. And it happened yet again when Rory decided to run for Governor this year.

Every time, Harry stepped aside and let Rory do his own thing... But that didn't mean he agreed with it. And if you want proof positive that there's no plan for "dynasty" here, look at what the state party is up to. Who are the field offices focusing on most? Harry Reid and Dina Titus. They do NOT want voters thinking they have to "support the dynasty".

Plus, look at how the campaigns have diverged in the last 6 months. Harry's campaign has been top notch while Rory's has devolved into a hot mess. If Harry really wanted a "dynasty", wouldn't he come to the rescue for his son's flailing campaign?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
2002 was the NV GOP's high water mark...
When they swept all the statewide races as Jon Porter romped to victory in NV-03, and even Berkley was held down to 55% in NV-01. That was when Kenny Guinn was the "figure head", and the party had a strong field operation.

In 2004, Democrats started to catch up as the Kerry campaign built up its operation. That's why Bush's 2004 win in Nevada was narrower than his 2000 win, and why he didn't have very long coattails (Dems actually GAINED a few Legislature seats that year).

After 2004, that's when Harry Reid's people took full control of the state Dem Party, "cleaned house", and brought in experienced strategists and organizers to build up a strong field operation.

The only reason why Dina Titus didn't win the Governor's race in 2006 was because (then Henderson Mayor) Jim Gibson refused to endorse her, so his Blue Dog allies stayed on the sidelines while Jim Gibbons' campaign was bludgeoning her with the soon-to-be-standard "Dina Taxes" attacks. And the only reason why Tessa Hafen didn't win NV-03 that year was because as solid a campaign as she built, she didn't work the more Latin@ heavy East Side that needs to be won by a BIG margin to win the district. Otherwise, Dems actually did quite well down ballot... Dems picked up more Legislature seats, and swept all the statewide offices below Governor and Lt. Governor.

Actually, the groundwork for Obama's BIG 2008 win was being laid starting 2 years before Obama even announced he would run. And with the competitive primary campaign between him and Hillary Clinton, "The Reid Machine" took full advantage of it by flipping Nevada's voter registration from a slight GOP plurality to a BIG Dem advantage.

So no, the Nevada GOP wasn't always laughably incompetent. They were once the powerhouse of this state, then they fell asleep at the wheel in 2004 as Harry Reid was already plotting to rebuild Dem infrastructure in 2006, turn the state Blue in 2008, and prepare to win the fight of his life in 2010.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
whoa....
...no one cares b/c Shelley always wows her audience with her signature red pumps, flashy casino host smile, and larger than life 'tude...

Really?  No one cares because of THAT?  Paging Ken Buck...

[ Parent ]
Vegas, baby
"Signature red pumps, flashy casino host smile, and larger than life 'tude...." Hey, the heart of Las Vegas needs representation, too.

Okay, yes, that statement kinda came off as a wee bit misogynistic, but if you imagine the speaker saying it approvingly, sassily and flashily, then it works. Since atdleft is a 23-year-old gay Democrat and resident of the Las Vegas metro, I assume that he approves of Berkley and can pull off a little sass and flash.  

But seriously, LV residents do seem to like quirky, larger-than-life politicians. And if you don't believe me, you haven't met Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I am sure that
atdleft means it with MUCH admiration. :)
[ Parent ]
Yes, I do!
Seriously, she and Dina are my two all time fave gay icons. Eat your heart out, Cher! ;-)

And no, I did NOT mean it in any sort of misogynistic way. Shelley is one of the hardest working pols in the state. On Friday at the Obama rally, she gave a rip-roaring speech tearing Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle apart for the "man up" nonsense... She said Angle has no clue how tough Harry Reid is, she has no clue how tough women really are (my fave line was Shelley saying, "Why don't we ask people to WOMAN UP??!!"), and closing by saying, "Harry is so man, he's almost woman!"

And yes, she was wearing her signature red pumps, big hair, and flashy fabulous outfit. But behind all that, Shelley's one of the smartest pols in the state and she's already plotting out her plan to join Harry in the Senate come 2013 (so long as Dean Heller doesn't become the GOP nominee).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I'm confused
How are Shelley Berkley and Dina Titus gay icons? I Tammy Baldwin was the only gay woman in the House........

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Missed the word "thought"
Should read "I thought Tammy Baldwin was the only gay woman in the House."

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
A gay icon
doesn't need to be gay, MassGOP.

Think Cher, Madonna, Donna Summer, Judy Garland.

And don't ask how I know. ;-)

[ Parent ]
Whoops
I actually didn't know this. I knew those artists all had a very strong LGBT following, but I always associated the term "gay icon" with celebrities who are openly LGBT (Elton John, Lady Gaga, etc.) I stand corrected.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Lady Gaga
would be a gay icon even if she weren't bisexual.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NC-4 and NC-13
I live in NC-4 and near NC-13.  In NC-4, our long-time Dem rep David Price is facing Republican teabagger B.J. Lawson for the second time.  He beat him soundly, 63-36, in '08.  Price isn't exactly an electrifying candidate, he's 70, and never really stands out or receives a lot of attention, but he always votes the right way.  On the other hand, he never does anything controversial either.  I expect that he'll retire sometime in the next few cycles, and hope that we'll get a more vocal Progressive leader in his place.

This year, I expect Lawson to get around 42% of the vote due to the nature of the cycle, but he has no chance of winning.  This district contains all of Orange County (Chapel Hill) and Durham County (Durham) which are the bluest areas of the state.  I live in the Southern Wake County (south of Raleigh) part of the district, which is more of a purple area, and there are a ton more Lawson yard signs around here this year than in '08 (and more for Price too) and I expect Lawson to get his best numbers here.

In redistricting, this district will have to get smaller as it's one of the most over-populated in the country.  The Southern Wake County part could move to Bob Etheridge's district (NC-2) and Lawson might be able to give Etheridge a good challenge there.

NC-13 contains Northern Wake County, and stretches across northern NC to pick up Greensboro in Guilford County too.  It's been a reliable blue district since it was formed in 2002, and although Brad Miller has had some high-profile challengers, he's never had much trouble getting re-elected.  This year, he's facing one of those rare black teabaggers in Bill Randall.  I saw part of a debate between Miller and Randall on TV yesterday, and Randall came across crazier than even most teabaggers, while Miller was calm, cool, collected and had much more knowledge of all the issues.  Any sane undecided voter who watched would clearly gravitate towards Miller.  I don't think he'll have any trouble beating Randall, although I suppose Randall could get a vote percentage in the low 40s.

In contrast to Price, I perceive Miller to be a much more vocal Progressive leader, who I hope will have a long career.  I'd love to see him run for Senate someday, maybe against Burr in 2016.  He'd make a great Governor too.

Bottom line, I would be shocked and shaken to the core if either Price or Miller lose this year.  Kissell (NC-08), Shuler (NC-11), McIntyre (NC-07), and Etheridge (NC-02) would all lose too if the wave were big enough to take down Price and Miller, and that just won't happen.  NC is quickly trending blue and has a huge Dem registration advantage.  The only race that I think the Republicans have a chance of winning is NC-08, and even there I'd give Kissell the edge.  Kissell's ads have been on TV quite a bit (some of our Raleigh TV stations serve Fayetteville too) and I haven't seen any at all from his opponent, Harold Johnson.  I haven't seen Johnson up in any polls yet either.

Dead Wood
I did a diary some time ago on dKos on "when to primary an incumbent," and included a category called "Dead Wood."

It is said that Congresspeople fall into one of two categories, "show horses" or "work horses." Some go on TV to promote a set of issues, while others craft legislation in committees. A few, however, do neither. They show up and have perfectly acceptable voting records, but otherwise are totally invisible, and have zero accomplishments to point to, Moreover, they are blocking the path for other, more ambitious, Democrats. A perfect example is Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D, CA-34). Who? That's the point. She has been in Congress since 1992-following her father, Edward Roybal (1962-92)-but I suspect this is the first time her name has been mentioned on dKos.

I think Price would be another perfect example for that category.

[ Parent ]
That's not necessarily
the best metric to use, particularly since a lot of issues aren't glamorous but involve steady and concentrated effort. It's extremely possible that some members who aren't on committees that deal with hot-button issues get ignored in favor of someone who does deal with this stuff. Not everyone can be above average in terms of "accomplishments," which means legislation--and anything else? In the end, if they vote the way the party wants them to vote, that's probably most important, particularly if they come from a district where a Democrat shouldn't struggle. Indeed, to launch a primary challenge against someone just because they aren't a pronounced overachiever seems just a tad counterproductive.

Besides that, I don't know much about the composition of California, but it is a big state like New York, where I live, and has lots of people with lots of congressional districts. It's possible for people to get ignored when so many people are trying to grab the spot light, and if you don't live in California or in a state near it, which is most of the country, you just wouldn't know of most of its House members.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Price will survive on money
I err on the side of Price surviving simply due to money.

In 2008 BJ Lawson was pretty well-funded, having around 500k if I remember right. He ran on the Ron Paul style platform, and raised most of his money from the online supporters and with a couple shoutouts from Ron Paul. Nevertheless, Price won soundly on an Obama turnout wave.

This year, I think BJ might hit 200k. When he likely loses, you can ironically thank Rand Paul first and foremost. The online supporters poured so much money into Rand Paul's campaign to get him competitive with Trey Grayson early on that they started to abandon other candidates' fundraising.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
He's raised $373k as of the final pre-election report (10/13)
The problem for Lawson, as I pointed out previously, is that this is a very Democratic district. Even losing by double-digits, Elaine Marshall will still carry NC-04. Kerry won it by 11 while losing statewide by 12.5. I can't fathom who would vote for Marshall for Senate and a Paulite for House.
[ Parent ]
Costello's
opponent is a "cougar" advice columnist.  She teaches hot older ladies how to score young dudes.

I think Costello's gonna make it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

You underestimate the cougar vote
kidding kidding
[ Parent ]
CT-03 / DeLauro
I can't imagine that Rosa is in any trouble. I have no idea who her opponent is, and I doubt many others do either. (I'm just north in CT-01.)

The only public poll of the race has her +21, as of three weeks ago. And that poll seemed TOUGH on most other Democratic candidates at the time. So it might even have understated her strength.

Incidentally, her husband is Democratic uber-pollster Stan Greenberg (of GQR), so if she was in any trouble, I think you'd see her slugging it out fiercely, which hasn't happened.

Jerry Labriola
At this point he's something of a perennial candidate. He was dispatched handily by Joe Lieberman in 1994. There's enough suburban territory in that district that I could imagine a live candidate getting traction in a really tough Dem year, but not that guy and not with the Reps' weak (Foley) and really weak (McMahon) gube and senate candidates atop the ticket.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  
[ Parent ]
NY
Israel, Weiner, and Tonko are all safe
Agreed.
And I'm pretty much ready to add Maffei to the list, too. He may be a freshman, but it's a rapidly bluing district and the GOP has so many other, easier targets this year that they seem to have let NY-25 slide.  
[ Parent ]
MO-05
Jacob Turk swears that he has a shot to win, but he's losing 52-43 in his internal, and it's tough to get a good gauge on the KCMO vote, which is heavy Cleaver. So Cleaver should win by at least 15
Cleaver in trouble? Send in Justus
Missouri State Sen. Jolie JustusI wish Cleaver would campaign like he's in trouble: that would lead to an immediate rise in African-American turnout in Kansas City, boosting Carnahan. Cleaver, a pastor and Kansas City's first black mayor (1991-1999), is still very popular in the city's Af-Am community.

In 2006, Turk ran against Cleaver and got 32.3%, ran again and got 35.6% in 2008. So I would say there is almost no way Cleaver gets anything less than 60% in his third match-up against Turk.

Btw, when the almost-66-year-old Cleaver retires from Congress, I will be sending money to now-39-year-old state Sen. Jolie Justus to replace him. She's a liberal lesbian who manages to make even Ellen look unapproachable and unfriendly, but more importantly she's a liberal even staunch conservatives praise for her job performance, humor, and legislative comity.

Jolie would also be Missouri's cutest Congressperson-->

And frankly, if Cleaver hasn't retired by 2016, maybe 2018, Justus (who will complete her second, and final, term in the state Senate in 2014) should primary him from a smidge to his left, but also on competency grounds. Because frankly, though he was a decent mayor and is a reliable vote in Congress, Cleaver hasn't exactly distinguished himself in Congress and is too old to gain the necessary seniority to pull in the pork. Preferably, though, Cleaver retires and Justus wins an open Democratic primary for a blue seat (as she did to get her Senate district).  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Cleaver and Justus
I disagree that Cleaver is going to break 60%. I think he wins with only 55-58%. His last two elections were in Dem wave years. I think this year will be similar to his first election in 2004, when he won with about 55% against a wealthy self-funder in a fairly balanced if not slightly GOP-leaning year. Plus, Turk is getting way more attention and has more support this year than in the past two cycles.

I completely agree that Jolie Justus should try to succeed Cleaver. I'm a huge fan of her. Very progressive voting record (probably the most progressive in the state), and a ton of community support. She is Cleaver's obvious successor, but I don't think she would win a primary challenge against him, so her best chance is the open seat, as you suggested. However, if Cleaver waits too long after 2014 (when Jolie is term-limited), she may fade in viability, unless she can find another opportunity. She would never win anything statewide, and she doesn't seem the mayoral type, so the U.S. House is really the best option.  

[ Parent ]
Under-the-Radar House Races Cattle Call | 164 comments

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