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House Poll Dump: 10/25

by: James L.

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 11:00 AM EDT


AR-02: OnMessage for Tim Griffin (10/13-14, likely voters, 6/13-14 in parens):

Joyce Elliott (D): 40 (34)
Tim Griffin (R): 52 (50)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

GA-02, GA-08: Landmark Communications (R) (10/19, likely voters):

Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 45
Mike Keown (R): 47

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 35
Austin Scott (R): 51
(MoE: ±3.5%)

KY-03: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/18-19, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 58 (53)
Todd Lally (R): 31 (30)
Undecided: 3 (12)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus finding: Jack Conway leads Rand Paul by 54-36 in this district, up from 51-39 in the previous Braun poll.

KY-06: Mason-Dixon for the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV (10/15-19, likely voters):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 48
Andy Barr (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.5%)

LA-02: Zata|3 for local Dems (10/20, likely voters):

Cedric Richmond (D): 53
Joe Cao (R-inc): 36
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/13-17, likely voters, 10/10-11 in parens):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 45 (48)
Dean Scontras (R): 40 (33)

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49 (43)
Jason Levesque (R): 30 (30)
(MoE: ±5.7%)

MI-15: EPIC/MRA (10/16-19, likely voters):

John Dingell (D-inc): 53
Rob Steele (R): 36  
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-22: Abacus Associates for Maurice Hinchey (10/20-21, likely voters):

Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 51
George Phillips (R): 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (10/20-21, likely voters):

David Cicilline (D-inc): 41
John Loughlin (R): 41
(MoE: ±5.7%)

TN-08: The Tarrance Group for Stephen Fincher (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Roy Herron (D): 35 (36)
Stephen Fincher (R): 50 (47)
Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±5.8%)

WA-02: SurveyUSA (10/19-21, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (50)
John Koster (R): 46 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
James L. :: House Poll Dump: 10/25
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House Poll Dump: 10/25 | 104 comments
I know conventional wisdom with undecideds...
Is they usually break 2-to-1 for the challenger, will that be the case this year?
I'm guessing . . .
yes.  

Most incumbents at 45% or below at this stage of the race (unless they are up by at least 4% or 5%) are probably doomed.  And any poll showing well over 15% undecided at this stage is probably suspect.  

Of course, this 45% observation may not apply where there are legitimate third party candidates likely to secure over 5% of the vote (i.e., Nevada)  

[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
They didn't break for President Kerry. CW is often wrong. Like the 50% rule.

[ Parent ]
But . . .
if you look at some of Nate Silver's work, you can see that there is something like a 45% rule.  
[ Parent ]
If I understand Nate correctly
It does not apply directly to the question -- as overall -- undecideds do not break one way or another.

As for the 45% thing, that applies only if the incumbent is behind. (since it's certainly rare for undecideds to break --for-- an incumbent)

And with the variability of some polls, there are significant doubts on whether certain incumbents are at =< 45% and are actually behind.

[ Parent ]
It'll Vary Race To Race, But Generally Yes.....
If I'm Barbara Boxer with an army of SEIU foot soldiers working on my behalf, I'm feeling pretty good about late-breaking voters.  But if I'm Joe Manchin depending on a nonexistent Democratic ground game in the hollers of coal country, I'm not feeling good about the undecideds at all.
[ Parent ]
Evidence please
I suspect there's plenty of D ground game in WV, which after all still has significant D majorities in both of their state houses.
[ Parent ]
Usually The More Locally Democratic A State Is.....
....particularly a rural state like West Virginia, the worse their ground operation is.  What's the point of having a good ground game in a state where just about everybody's a Democrat?  They discovered this in Mississippi when that state started turning red.  Furthermore, the coal unions that may have had some GOTV infrastructure in the past have been hemorrhaging members by the thousands, further leaving Democrats with few organized allies.  You're asking for proof and I don't have any...other than a good friend in rural southern West Virginia who's a Democrat and has never once gotten a nudge from her party to go to the polls.
[ Parent ]
You really are clueless, aren't you?
Yeah, there's no ground game in "locally Democratic" areas. Like Chicago. Totally no ground game here, no sir.

Sheesh.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
Civil Debate.....
Getcha some
[ Parent ]
Chicago is not a state
WV is.

Chicago on its own can't turn Illinois blue, it'll get you a lot of the way, but not the whole way. It's only become safe on a presidential level because the collar counties have turned blue at a rapid rate.

That means Chicago needs a good ground game to get its candidate to win. You also have a perpetually embattled machine, which needs to turn out votes to beat back any reformist efforts.

Whereas WV doesn't have Illinois' disparities. Sure, the eastern panhandle is more favourable to Republicans, whereas the south-west is real union country, but it's not as big a difference as there is between the Southside and southern Illinois. So you don't need that ground game as much - especially as there's less chance of an administration only looking out for one part of the state.

And whilst WV may have a Democratic machine, it has next to no reformists (or there would have been a younger primary challenger to Manchin than Ken Hechler), so there's little need to develop that kind of turnout operation.

[ Parent ]
I've lived in Philly for 11 years
Registered D.  Never gotten polled.  Never gotten a nudge to go to polls.  Does that mean PA has no Dem GOTV infrastructure either?

I must say its very fascinating that you have a friend in every close race area in America and they all feel chicken little about Dem prospects too.  Really, what are the odds LOL

[ Parent ]
Where Else Have I Said I Have Friends?
In this case, I haven't even talked to her about this election cycle....only in 2004 and 2008 during Presidential elections.  So I have no idea what her take is on the state of this year's West Virginia Senate race.

But I do enjoy a good conspiracy theory.  So I'm eager to hear more from you of how I'm the SSP equivalent of a black helicopter.

[ Parent ]
Sorta reminds me of a dear wingnut friend
who once cited support from a Turkish friend of hers for President Bush as proof that Turks supported the war in Iraq.

I cited the 9% support from some reputable world pollster among Turks for President Bush, and suggested to others on that board that her friend was certainly a genuine supporter.

[ Parent ]
And I Hate To Break It To You.....
...but Philadelphia is a city inside a perennial swing state.  Historically, there's a far better reason for the Democrats to have a strong GOP operation in Philadelphia than in Logan, West Virginia.
[ Parent ]
which makes it more perplexing
That I haven't gotten hit up by the GOTV effort, no?
[ Parent ]
Really?
Come on ... WV is one of the heaviest union states in the country - way more than CA - and the Dem machine is legendary. How else do they keep winning elections when ideologically it's gotten so conservative? This isn't one of your better wet blanket efforts!
[ Parent ]
It Is Historically.....
....but from all the data I've seen union membership in WV has been in absolute freefall in recent years.  The number of coal miners is down to something like 14,000 statewide, and the vast majority of them are now nonunion.
[ Parent ]
Not Quite Right
While it's certainly true that state parties used to being dominant can fail to notice ground shifting beneath them...other institutions matter. Unions or city or county political machines/operations or in some cases tight-knit ethnic groups. They can all have their own operations, and many are strong allies of the Democrats.

In that sense West Virginia is totally unlike Mississippi, a state where there is essentially no organized labor presence, not to mention a racial polarization problem that's not much of an issue in West Virginia, because essentially everyone is non-Hispanic white.  The only thing the Democratic Party had going for it in Mississippi (among whites at least) was ancestry.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
that sounds more like complacency
Than having anything to do with being rural.  The rural Dems on the Iron Range have ground game and that's because they need to help carry the whole state of MN.  Same with unions in CA and unlike states like WV where the Dem advantage has always been built-in.

You are also talking about an area of the country that once voted damn-near 100% for Democrats and now that percentage could be said to be in free-fall.  Not having a ground game would only slow that trend but it can't stop or reverse it.  MS was bound to become solidly Republican and that's just that.

[ Parent ]
I don't know if this rule works or not
Take a look at the RI-1 poll above as an example. It's a Republican poll, so even though it shows candidates tied at 41%, you have to adjust for the Repub bias. When you do that, it looks more like this:

Democrat: 43%
Republican: 36%

In that scenario, the Dem is under 45%, but am I to believe that the undecideds are going to break some much in the Repub's favor, that the Repub gains so much that they overcome the Dem?

[ Parent ]
maybe there is a formulatic way to include PVI
Taking past presidential performance to figure out how undecides will break could be an academic way.  The example that springs to mind is PA-11 in 2008 where Kanjorski looked doomed but Democratic strength at the top of the ticket brought home undecides in Kanjorski's favor.

That's comparing a mid-term to a presidential but you all get the gist of what I'm saying.

[ Parent ]
TN-8: Numbers probably decent for an internal
I think it is reasonable to wager that Fincher is around 50%. Unfortunately I expect Herron is going to need a lot of effort and luck to get near 45% on election day and avoid an absolutely crushing defeat. Herron got the best scenario possible with Fincher and was still too inept to make it competitive in the homestretch.  

Democrat: TN-8
I'm not sure I buy it
11 percent still undecided?  5.8% MOE?  Janes at 4 percent?  Something about this poll makes me not buy that it's a 15-point race.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
The MOE is high, but the numbers still appear reflective of how the race stands IMO
From everything I can tell from on the ground Fincher is going to win this race by a decent margin, not so much on his message or appeal, but on the fact that the so much of the electorate here in the 8th has become very hostile to Democratic candidates since the election of President Obama. To compound this problem, Herron has over-focused on attacking Fincher on his questionable campaign loan, instead of pushing a coherent message of why he is the conservative candidate who is capable of going to Washington and voting the will of the district. Herron will close the gap on election day, but he will still lose by a decent margin in my estimation.

Getting hammered on television by an 8-1 ratio in ads isn't helping either.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Was going to add that.
I see about five Fincher ads for every Herron ad here in the Memphis market (which reaches most of the 8th, IIRC.)  It's looking like Fincher will win and probably wind up with a better district in 2012, assuming Republicans control the redistricting.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
It looks like
Dingell is strong.

I know anecdotal evidence isn't worth much, but I have a sister who works with a bunch of people who have worked with Rob Steele.  None of them are voting for him.

Dingell
was never really in serious trouble.  Take a look at his district -- its not exactly GOP-friendly.  

I suspect this was all psych-ops from the GOP to divert Dem resources from MI-07, MI-09 and MI-01.  

[ Parent ]
Public Opinion Strategies
I'm looking forward to finding out what else "POS" stands for on Nov. 2.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
WTF is with the RI-01 POS poll?
POS has a pretty good reputation when polling for other clients, but why have their NRCC polls been so off at times? I have a hard time believing this seat is on the verge of going Red.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
If Cicilline loses
If Cicilline loses and doesn't become the 4th member of the LGBT caucus, I am going to hunt down NOM's Maggie Gallagher and punch her in the balls.

That said, POS is a POS pollster, and this poll was for the NRCC, so I'm not going to get too anxious until I see independent confirmation.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
yeah, I wouldn't worry too much
wasn't there some internal poll which showed PA-02 as a tie race? internal polls, especially with such high MoEs, cannot be trusted on their own. also, as an RI-01 resident, I haven't heard anything about unusually high Republican support. RI is going to be business as usual this year, I think. I see lots of voters being like my dad, who is really pissed off at the state Democratic leadership, but could never vote for a Republican at the federal level because they are too far to the right.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
PPP Colorado
Senate mirrors SurveyUSA: 47% Buck, 47% Bennet. 45% of the undecided are Republicans; undecideds also back Tancredo 53%-23%.

Governor: 47% Hickenlooper, 44% Tancredo, 5% Maes.

20, GOP, NH-02

Ack, sorry...
wrong thread.

20, GOP, NH-02
[ Parent ]
CO numbers may be even better than they appear ??
Tancredo getting 43% of Hispanics ?! (vs. 47% for Hickenlooper) with similar breakdown in Senate race ... if the relatively small sample size is somehow skewing this, then final result may be better for us -- ??
[ Parent ]
How can that number be anywhere close to
correct? Tancredo isnt the normal questionable Republican; he's downright hostile to immigrants and Hispanics in particular.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Indeed
And PPP finds white voters split down the middle. I don't see how the dem loses if that happens. Also, look at the huge variability based on day of call that's really curious.  
[ Parent ]
Early voting iteresting
50-45-3 already voted. 46-43-6 with those who haven't. That might mitigate a further Tancredo surge somewhat. Though they seem to have Bennet and Hick both at 48 there.  
[ Parent ]
Oregon house seats looking good ...
http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

OR-5
Schrader 50
Bruun 38

OR-1
Wu 51
Cornilles 38

I'm really beginning to think that most GOP internal polling this year is nothing more than a head fake and should be dismissed as garbage ...

OR-05: I think the Rove group went hard against Schrader
If I remember right, they were using his votes for the budget to suggest that he outsourced jobs to China.
[ Parent ]
Bad news for Jim Marshall

It's a Republican poll, granted, but his numbers are falling into line with e.g. Alan Boyd's next door.

A lot of the Blue Dog archipelago in the Deep South is sinking into the sea of Red this election.  Bobbie Bright, Gene Taylor, and Mike Ross could be the sole survivors in Red districts.

And they'll be kingmakers...
If the Dems narrowly hold on to the House, or if the GOP narrowly takes the House.  
[ Parent ]
A Numerical Loss Only......
Frankly I'm not sure Bright or Taylor will withstand the wave in the end either.  I had my doubts about Ross too until a couple favorable polls earlier this month.  Frankly, extending the Bush tax cuts is the final straw for me to tolerate these faux "fiscal hawks", much as I've defended them in the past.  If they're willing to sabotage their party and their country to keep millionaires getting tax cuts, then what the hell good are they?  Any Democratic majority is a de facto Republican majority with Jim Marshall and Bobby Bright anyway.
[ Parent ]
Bright will survive.
He's polled strongly.
[ Parent ]
Well, as far as i know
- there are lot of millionaires, who are Democrats (and even some billionaires too..), and Democratic party, while, undoubtely, being more "left" among 2 major parties, is not a Socialist or even Social-Democratic party. It was Bolshevicks in my native Russia, who were "against the rich" - i never read something like that in Democratic party platform..

P.S. Sorry for a bit of "pure politics", i don't want to expand that any more)))

[ Parent ]
Then you aren't reading carefully enough.
It's right below the part about instituting Sharia law and forcing all young men and women into gay, polygamous marriages officiated by bin Laden.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Not sure that being against tax breaks for millionaires makes you a socialist
I'm a British Labour Party member. We raised taxes on the rich before the last election, and I'm damn sure there wasn't much else we did that can be described as socialist. In my darker moods, I begin to doubt there's that much social democratic about the party either...

Coincidentally, and getting away from political arguments, it was also about our only popular policy. When we're talking southern Blue Dogs, we're talking about poor rural districts that are dependent on government spending. If you can't sell taxing the rich on a populist deficit hawk platform of saving necessary spending, you're a terrible representative for a district like that.

Sure, America is more hostile to taxes than most of western Europe (although we aren't wild keen on them here either). But there is not a majority in favour of abolition of the 16th Amendment. If Blue Dogs were interested in strengthening their electoral position and helping the caucus, they should be arguing that whilst we don't want to punish aspiration, when money is tight those who can most afford it should bear the heaviest load.

And if they'd rather weaken their electoral position by validating Republican talking points and hurt the caucus, what use are they to anybody?

[ Parent ]
You also had your doubts
about Beebe.

Chad Causey will hold onto AR-01 too.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Crawford's been getting hammered of late
I wouldn't be surprised if Causey holds on in that district.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Yep...It's Increasingly Looking Like My Call on Beebe Was Incorrect....
...his lead in the polls was shrinking.  Now it's growing again.  Hopefully there are more races moving that direction in the South than what I suspect.  I'm still certain that Causey's on the road to almost certain defeat.
[ Parent ]
If Republicans
had any organization there, you might have something. But they don't. They'll get more competitive there very soon, I feel, but at the moment they have NOTHING. I don't know how hard I have to press this issue, but the only places in Arkansas where the Republican has any presence are the NW corner, and the Little Rock suburbs. Hell, even in Ross's district they have a stronger base and greater presence because of Dickey and Huckabee. But in AR-01 you and others don't seem to understand that Republicans have no on the ground organization, at a county or district level, and locally, my friends in the district say they are running around like a chicken with its head cut off. The point is, if Causey is tied, he'll win come election day by 10 points because of the superior party organization.
[ Parent ]
Is There Precedent For This???
I read your take on AR-01 before and while it's interesting, has there been an actual close race that's broke for the Democrat by 10 points?  My experience in tracking Arkansas is the races tend to break the other way, albeit both cases being Presidential races rather than local races.  Either way, the local Democratic ground game sure didn't help Kerry or Obama in Arkansas.
[ Parent ]
Because Obama never lifted a
finger, during the primary or the general election, to fight for Arkansas, and fight the negative perceptions being spread around about him.

I remember 2004, Bush campaigned in Arkansas and outspent Kerry like 2:1. In 2000 Gore took Arkansas for granted, kinda like he did Tennessee, Oregon, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, and lost it, also because he refused to allow the still popular President Clinton to stump for him.

Anyway, in more localized races where Democrats are at par with their opponents, there is this effect. Republicans don't even run candidates for the state house or senate in most parts of AR-01.  

[ Parent ]
Except his lead was NOT "shrinking" at the time you made your call......
The Pollster.com graph and chart linked here establish that Beebe has held steady all along.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

The only pollster to show anything less than a full-scale blowout is Rasmussen, and that is discrediting in and of itself.

Your "call" was laughable at the time you made it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Race Was Tracking The Same Way As Georgia in 2002......
Even Rasmussen's polls were showing Beebe's lead shrinking.  And I still think he'll underperform current polls showing his 20-some point lead, even though his defeat seems very unlikely at this point.
[ Parent ]
i agree
We all like to make outside-of-the-box predictions here.  I like reading people's gut feelings, as long as they aren't trolling or throwing stuff up there just to be a pain in the ass.  It would be boring if 100% of us had the same opinions.  Mark, I didn't think your prediction was laughable.  It was eyebrow-raising because of its pointed certainty at the time, but your analysis wasn't completely unreasonable.    
[ Parent ]
IMO Mark's comments on AR-Gov fail the very test you establish......
"...as long as they aren't...throwing stuff up there just to be a pain in the ass."

Given that my previous comment included a link to hard data, and Mark answered with an unsupported assertion that directly contradicts the hard data I provided, I think that qualifies as "throwing stuff up there."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's not an appropriate
comparison though, that comparison is just annoying and its hugely flawed. Roy Barnes had problems. He changed the design of the state flag, which trivial as it may seem, angered a lot of rural south Georgia voters. He infuriated the teachers unions, and, in a big high program made voters in the Atlanta suburbs angry at him. On top of everything he had a legitimate opponent in State Senator Sonny Perdue.

The difference is Beebe does nothing controversial, has almost universal approval ratings, is in a state with less of a Republican base than Republicans had in 2002 Georgia, and is up against a nobody neophyte. I guarantee you he will win 61-63% of the vote.  

[ Parent ]
No, you're wrong and you're being dishonest to boot......
"Even" Rasmussen's polls showed "shrinking"?  Try ONLY Rasmussen's polls showed shrinking.  THAT would be accurate.  And Rasmussen is THE outlier.

You obviously didn't click the link.  As I said in my previous comment, the Pollster.com graph and chart establish that Beebe has held steady throughout, no drop whatsoever.  Nowhere in the poll chart are there two polls in a row showing a drop.  The only pollster besides Rasmussen to poll the race more than once is Reuters/Ipsos, which had 57-35 in July and then 55-37 2 months later in September, which is pure statistical noise and amazing stabilty over a 2-month stretch.

At no point has there been any downward trend at all for Beebe.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I Clicked The Link.....
The early Rasmussen polls in the race showed Beebe leading by 15 points and the later polls showed him leading by 10.  His margins narrowed across the board in the late summer, both in Rasmussen and non-Rasmussen polls.  Dude, you have to take other people's predictions a little less personally.
[ Parent ]
Are you really having that hard a time reading the graph and chart?......
Beebe's line representing his percentage of support is virtually flat all the way across.

Keet ticked up until mid-July, consolidating a portion of the Republican base, and then he froze in place and has been a straight line for 3 months.  If anything, Beebe's margin has ticked UP.

The list of polls also doesn't support you at all.  Rasmussen has been erratic, as they are in so many races, not showing any "trend."  Others have either not polled more than once or, with Reuters/Ipsos, showed a flat race 2 months apart, as I explained.

The sentences you write are factually inaccurate, and you do this all the time.

And these are the polls on which you relied to assert categorically Beebe will lose outright.

I'm sorry you consider it "taking it personally" to be called out on your "predictions."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The next House . . .
will likely include not only Bright but Schuler, Oliverio, Minnick, Matheson, Boren, Peterson, Barrow and Ross.  And perhaps a somewhat humbled McIntyre, Carney and Taylor.  So unless the Dems win at least 226 seats (meaning a net loss of 30 or less House seats), they will not have much of a working majority for the next two years.    
[ Parent ]
Thay had bare majorities for most important bills even this year
(yes, Pelosi, being very smart, "allowed" some to intentionally vote "against" when vote "for" could damage their reelection chances, but still..), so i am absolutely sure that there will NOT be "working Democratic majority" in any case. There are no 218 "progressive" districts in US, so - no chances to elect 218 "progressives". And moderates and moderate-conservatives (there are NO real conservatives among Democrats now in House (even Bright is not nearly as conservative as conservative Democrats of rather recent past), just as no liberals among Republicans) will always look for their districts and their "threatened" reelection chances first...
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Bright and Taylor are most definitely truly conservative Democrats, just like in the past. Republicans have no true moderate to liberal members, but the Democratic party has a significant conservative consortium in it and they are not faux conservatives. The Democratic party is a truly open tent and open-minded party as opposed to the Republicans.  
[ Parent ]
Disagree 100%
You would say that Bright and Taylor are AS conservative as William Colmer, Dan Daniel, David Satterfield, Phil Gramm? I wouldn't even mention here Bob Stump, John Rarick, Larry McDonald. And they ALL began their congressional career as Democrats and only 2 of them (as far as i know) - Gramm and Stump -  later switched to Republican party. They were much more conservative then Taylor and Bright, who would be considered "moderate southern Democrats" not long ago.
[ Parent ]
McDonald . . .
IIRC was head of the John Birch Society AND A DEMOCRAT.  Plus, he died when the Soviets shot down that Korean airliner (Flight 007!) in 1983.  Cue, the conspiracy theories.  I remember (and I was just a kid back then) the Birchers claiming that the Soviets shot down the plan just to get McDonald.  LOL.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
I lived in Moscow then and remember the case very well. He was really conservative, even more then that)))). I doubt anyone can put Bright "on par"with him. Or, as i mentioned - with Rarick or Stump either))))
[ Parent ]
Not valid
Democrats today simply don't have any far-right white racists in their party anymore, these screeching rabble rousers became Republicans and you couldn't ever consider them Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly what i said
Democrats today don't have real conservatives, only a moderate ones.. And Bob Stump, BTW, was never a racist. He wasn't a Southerner either - he was from Arizona. Phil Gramm wasn't especially racist either. Both were FAR more conservative then Bright or Taylor. Now such people as them are "natural Republicans" while former Republicans in Case-Javits-Mathias mold are "natural Democrats"..
[ Parent ]
Yes, Democrats
have moderate conservatives. Republicans don't even have that anymore. I've tried to debate this point as well; but Snowe and Collins aren't moderate at all. They constantly vote to filibuster Democratic initiatives, judicial nominees, and the like. It makes me so mad that people buy into their occasional faux moderate routine. They aren't! Jim Leach was moderate. Wayne Gilchrest was moderate, Lincoln Chafee was moderate, Jim Jeffords was moderate, (before he switched parties), Lowell Wicker was moderate. William Weld was moderate. Collins and Snowe ARE NOT.  
[ Parent ]
Well, you take what you get.
Pro-choice? Yes. Pro "gay rights"? Not always, but mostly. Pro environment? More or less so. And so on. The most moderate high-level Republicans? Probably, except, may be, Jodi Rell. So, THAT's what called "a moderate"
[ Parent ]
Strip away the racism...
...which was an integral part of the political make-up of many of those neanderthals, and you're left with what as a description of a conservative?

A spittle-flecked half-mad Bircher with a paranoia complex and only a very distant relationship with the truth?

Because that's fairly harsh even to most Republicans today.

The representative you're naming aren't real conservatives. They're just (mostly racist) scumbags, so far to the right that a lot of the more reconstructed European neo-Nazis would hesitate to associate with them.

[ Parent ]
Unacceptably conservative
has a jerkily and net slowly moving bar in the Democratic Party.  But it only moves in one direction, unlike the ideological bar in The Other Party where to my sense of it it moves variously on different subjects.
[ Parent ]
That's quite possible
and resembles what happened to House Republicans after the 1998 elections.  I suspect so too.

As a pattern the Presidential election follows the political motif of the midterm preceding it.  I feel pretty sure all Southern survivors of this election in Red districts face a second deluge in '12 that will do in more of the them.

But the slow liberal/Democratic overall trend in the electorate should make up for some of their numbers even in relatively bad election years.

[ Parent ]
Wasn't true in 1996
It follows if conditions don't change. But if the economy isn't improving and Obama doesn't have something to sell for 2012 then those southern survivors will be screwed either way in two years time, because the Democrats will be ten points down on the generic ballot.
[ Parent ]
I'm not quite sure what you mean, exactly
about 1996.  Clinton won reelection, true, but he had to position as conservative Republican in various ways (the infamous 'triangulation') to do it.  From his overcoming the pattern Republicans became motivated to resort to whatever means necessary to counter in 2000.  It took Bush Jr. appearing to embrace moderate Democratic positions to succeed at that.  And use, then exposure, of the tribal mid-rank government establishment fealty to Republicans (in the federal judiciary and the elections apparatus).

I count the conservative Democrats that defected to the Republican side in 1995 and special election losses in 1995/96 as losses to the Democrats de facto in the 1996 elections.

Obama's going to have to run on a revamped, smarter and more ideologically liberal platform in '12 that distinguishes him from the Republicans.  More accommodationism won't sell to his voter coalition.

[ Parent ]
Every cloud has a silver lining

[ Parent ]
LOL :-)

[ Parent ]
Next door?
Macon and Tallahassee are 200 miles apart.  
[ Parent ]
The districts are in close proximity
but then they cover a lot of ground. GA-02 is the district that borders FL-02. But yeah, the major cities aren't close at all.  
[ Parent ]
I'm most surprised by AR-02 and ME-01
That's a pretty weak internal for Griffin to release. You're supposed to win this by 15-20 points, why release a poll showing you're up on 12 and your opponent has gained 4 points? What was he trying to accomplish by releasing that?

Also, I remember that StephenCLE predicited a long, long time ago that Chellie Pingree could be upset this year. Well, here we are, 8 days away from the election, and she leads by only 45-40 in a non-partisan poll. Good work, Stephen!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

This Is The Same District That Gave Us James Longley In 1994....
....so anything's possible.
[ Parent ]
Re Maine, those Critical Insight polls are just a couple days apart from end-to-start, and yet...
...big differences in toplines.  That's discrediting right there unless we get confirmation of big movement away from Pingree in the one race and toward Michaud in another.  You don't see such dramatic movement in a few days' time absent scandal!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
There was a scandal though, right?
The whole private plane thing
[ Parent ]
I'm not aware of that. What was the scandal? (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
AR-02 and ME-01
I think the Griffin poll makes sense to release. It still shows him with a substantial lead (with few undecideds), but close enough to convince your supporters that this isn't in the bag and they need to keeping working hard. (Of course, it really is in the bag...Elliott is too liberal for this district. Nevertheless, a poll like this that still shows a solid lead but counters complacency at this stage is a good thing for the front-runner).

I still think Pingree will pull it out, but the Dems are a bit lucky in Maine. The relatively poor candidate (Pingree) is in the more Democratic district. If she was representing ME-02, she'd probably be a goner. Even though it is slightly Dem-leaning at the presidential level, Dems are lucky they have a pretty solid campaigner (from what I hear) in Michaud representing the rural ME-02.

31, Male, Democrat, RI-01

[ Parent ]
Unions have been working GOTV in AR-02
FWIW.  AFL-CIO's GOTV wing Working America has dropped $100K on this district.  I don't think Elliott can win here, but they're not going to let it be a cakewalk.
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
Republicans have a pretty strong base in Arkansas in the Little Rock suburbs. Which means that while it looks the friendliest to Democrats, that is a deception as it is the second toughest in the state for Democrats to crack 50% in. Still Republicans really can't dominate it either, so I figure Elliot will end up with around 46%. A shame she ran. Robbie Willis was really the only shot at holding this district. Sad that Vic Snyder is retiring, he was a great, courageous guy and he could really run some great, proud campaigns for a southern Democrat; he didn't run away from doing the right thing or from his party's accomplishments. As a minister and Vietnam War veteran he wasn't afraid to vote against the Iraq War, the Federal Marriage amendment, partial birth abortion bans, or banning lawsuits against gun manufacturers, (a big deal for the NRA which is more interested in protecting weapons dealers profit margins than individuals rights), drilling in ANWR, and Bankruptcy reform. I remember he even voted against the Flag Burning Amendment. And when Republicans tried to run against him in 2004 he socked them good.  
[ Parent ]
To win in this district
Democrats needed moderate (moderate-liberal - maximum and even that could endanger chances) white male, and not liberal black woman. May be that's harsh, but true..
[ Parent ]
Yep.
On the surface, AR-02 appears to be more friendly to Democrats than AR-01 or AR-04 do.  But there's a lot more ticket-splitting in the latter two districts, where there are a lot of voters who vote Republican for President, but still vote for Democrats at the state and local level.  The Republican voters in AR-02 are either suburbanites or mountain folks who vote Republican down the ballot.

I still think that PVI isn't always an accurate indicator of party strength for downballot races... basically, an R+5 district that's largely urban and suburban isn't the same thing as an R+5 rural district.  Seems like rural voters tend to do a lot more ticket-splitting.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Kratovil-Harris tied in Baltimore Sun poll
If so - not good. VERY good)))

[ Parent ]
Agreed.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Both candidates at 40% with a week to go
In a rematch from 2008.  The 2010 electorate is so weird.
[ Parent ]
Pretty good day for House Dems
All we need now is a poll showing someone like Perriello or Markey surging and Republicans will really start sweating.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I've given
money to Markey and have gotten a few e-mails from her campaign asking for more but also from the candidate herself, if the bottom of the e-mail saying she's sending it from her Blackberry can be believed. I've considered sending her a short personal response telling her she's did a lot during her last term for which she can be proud and that she will hopefully pummel the bastard she's running against. Hell, even if it's not Markey but some relative higher up in the campaign, that would be fine.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Best Poll I've Seen In A While There
I've seen a good number of anti-Harris ads the last week on Baltimore TV.

Not that O'Malley is going to do especially well in MD-01, but signs that he's starting to pull away in statewide polling might be helpful to us. (Of course, it might hurt too, since we need as many non-regular voters on the Shore horrified of an extremist like Harris as possible, even if they're planning on supporting Ehrlich.)  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Confirms what I thought all along
That Kratovil is still in the thick of it, and could even pull this one out on election night.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
DSCC polls of IL-Sen
From pollster Anzalone-Liszt. Oct. 20-24.

Without third party candidates:

Giannoulias (D) 41%
Kirk (R)        39%

With third party candidates:

Giannoulias (D) 38%
Kirk (R)        36%
Jones (G)       7%
Labno (L)       4%

Doesn't give me a lot of confidence
Hope lies in Illinois imitating California.  Where the Democratic bent of the state results in Democrats outperforming the polls.
[ Parent ]
I think Kirk is ahead
It depends now on Obama. The margin is smaller than it was in NJ last year and IL is more Democratic. I'm hopeful.
[ Parent ]
Agree, but the one thing that worries me...
...is that Giannoulias can't get out of the low 40s in any poll except ONE Rasmussen poll a few weeks ago that had him at 44.

At some point he has to show a real surge, or I suspect the anti-Democratic wave, yes even in Illinois, will end up deciding this.  If he's still polling as late as this weekend but then ends up winning, I'll be stunned.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Cicilline isn't an incumbent
Is that an error on SSP's part, or are PoS trying to tap into an anti-incumbent sentiment?

Not that it matters, as they're aptly acronymised.

House Poll Dump: 10/25 | 104 comments

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