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Weekend Poll Round-up: House Edition

by: James L.

Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 5:58 PM EDT


All the latest House polls in one place.

IL-09: Magellan for Joel Pollak (10/12, likely voters):

Jan Schakowsky (D-inc): 48
Joel Pollak (R): 30
(MoE: ±3%)

IL-10: We Ask America (10/15, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 39
Bob Dold (R): 50
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±2.9%)

ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 48 (54)
Dean Scontras (R): 33 (36)

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 43 (44)
Jason Levesque (R): 30 (32)
(MoE: ±5.7%)

MN-01: SurveyUSA (10/12-14, likely voters):

Tim Walz (D-inc): 47
Randy Demmer (R): 42
Steven Wilson (IP): 4
Lars Johnson (I): 2
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)

MO-05: Pulse/Rasmussen for Jacob Turk (10/5, likely voters):

Emanuel Cleaver (D-inc): 52
Jacob Turk (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)

NH-01, NH-02: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, September in parens):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 36 (39)
Frank Guinta (R): 48 (49)
(MoE: ±5.3%)

Ann McLane Kuster (D-inc): 43 (38)
Charlie Bass (R): 36 (43)
(MoE: ±5.1%)

PA-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Keith Rothfus (10/6-7, likely voters):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47
Keith Rothfus (R): 36
(MoE: ±5.7%)

PA-07: Franklin & Marshall College (10/5-11, likely voters):

Bryan Lentz (D): 31
Pat Meehan (R): 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-08: Monmouth University (10/11-13, likely voters):

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46
Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 51
(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-10, PA-11: Critical Insights for the Times Leader (dates unspecified, likely voters):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 38
Tom Marino (R): 44

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41
Lou Barletta (R): 43
(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Quest (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

David Cicilline (D): 47 (49)
John Loughlin (R): 36 (26)
Undecided: 13 (25)
(MoE: ±6.2%)

SC-02: Anzalone Liszt Research (10/7-10, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):

Rob Miller (D): 39 (34)
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 46 (49)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

TN-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Scott DesJarlais (10/12 & 14, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):

Lincoln Davis (D-inc): 40 (42)
Scott DesJarlais (R): 45 (42)
(MoE: ±5.7%)

VA-09: SurveyUSA (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/27-29 in parens):

Rick Boucher (D-inc): 51 (53)
Morgan Griffith (R): 41 (38)
Jeremiah Heaton (I): 4 (5)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4%)

WA-03: SurveyUSA (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Denny Heck (D): 42 (43)
Jaime Herrera (R): 53 (52)
Undecided: 6 (4)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
James L. :: Weekend Poll Round-up: House Edition
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IL-10
That poll seems to be opposing every other poll out there that i've seen

The crosstabs are very strange
82 percent of Dems for Dan Seals.
Yet 37 percent are still undecided.
Huh?



21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
Surely, it must be...
...a typo. Perhaps they meant to put "7.75", but accidentally put a 3 in front of it.

Somebody should get a screen shot of it before they change it without acknowledging it.


[ Parent ]
We Ask America
They're a lousy polling outfit linked to the Republican Party.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I'm beginning to think the cutesy decimal point numbering is a mask for the bullshit they're pedaling.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
that's one of the few polls
I've given a full eye brow raise to.  The Dems are in deep shit and a poll showing so usually doesn't surprise me anymore, but those top-lines are simply unbelievable.  Try again.

[ Parent ]
Kuster
is turning out to be one hell of a candidate.  If she can do this against the moderate and well-liked Bass this year, I would be very excited to see her make a Senate run in 2016.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

Iunno...
My state really needs to start storing up some seniority again with Gregg gone, especially if Shea Porter loses this year. I wouldn't want Kuster to leave after three terms just so she could be a junior senator at the age of 60. I'd rather someone younger who won't have to give up a House seat take on Ayotte

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
What about Atty. Gen. Delaney?
He's a young guy, very pro-financial reform...and he knows what it's like to succeed Ayotte in office!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
That's actually who I was thinking
He'll be 46 in 2016, and he'll have the statewide base and goodwill he'll need to take on someone like Ayotte. Attorney General is always a good place to run for higher office from.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if this is possible, but
if Kuster wins and is a good legislator rather than an average one, perhaps giving her some powerful position in the House would be a good idea. Perhaps a seat on an important House committee is better than a being on some random Senate committee.

I will say, I don't know much about Shea-Porter. People say she's a good progressive, and I believe them, so I gave her money, but her rise into politics is pretty captivating. She's arrested for wearing an anti-war shirt at a Bush rally and then swept into congress as her party retakes it in a fairly big route. She becomes the first woman to be elected to federal office from New Hampshire. People keep saying she's just terrific, and reading her Wikipedia page, it seems like they are right. It'd be terrible to lose her, so I am hoping that those who claim she will pull this out are correct.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Man, these look really bad
Especially TN-4, PA-8, MN-01, and IL-10. If this is what the election is going to look like, I'm going to need to accumulate a lot of hard liquor over the next few weeks. I keep waiting for polls to start shifting back slightly to us on the House front like they are in the Senate and Gubernatorial races, and I keep getting let down.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Just realized
The TN-04 poll is a DesJarlais internal. I expect Rep. Davis will gut out a win, but you're right: not a great roundup today.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
The Democrat is ahead in MN-01, so
what's the problem? Sure, it might not be by a huge margin, but sometimes, people who are entrenched incumbents win by a relatively smaller margin. If they win, what's the big deal?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Some lousy numbers for Democrats
Really bad numbers for Seals, Heck, Mayor Cicilline, and Reps. Davis, Murphy, Walz, Carney, and Shea-Porter.

Cicilline, Walz, and (I believe) Davis and Carney should survive this, and that Seals poll looks like an outlier (important to note We Ask America has Republican ties and has produced rather Republican-friendly results in Illinois, but this is pretty extreme), but not a good day here.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Shea-Porter isn't nearly that badly off
If you look at the UNH poll numbers, they're going with a sample of 40% registered Republicans, 25% registered Democrats. That's registered, in a state where Republicans hold a 0.4% registration advantage, not independents. Guinta also is still stuck under an ethical cloud for a mysterious $355,000 bank account he 'forgot' about in any previous financial disclosure, and somehow never used to pay off his student loans. Coincidentally his parents sold their house right before he went on his campaign.

[ Parent ]
Good analysis there RealNRH
Some of these polls have to be discern to filter out the bs and noise.  Shea-Porter will squeak this one out in my opinion.  

NY-29

[ Parent ]
Actually RealNRH's analysis isn't quite right and is a bit misleading because...
...he's comparing state voter registration to the NH-01 district breakdown, which are NOT comparable.  Now, the NH Secretary of State web site doesn't provide this data, so it must require contacting them directly, but NH-01 is more conservative and Republican than NH-02, so, it's going to be more conservative and Republican than statewide, while NH-02 is less conservative and less Republican than statewide.  

My back-of-the-envelope math says that the UNH poll statewide sampling is only a LITTLE more Republican than the state voter registration breakdown.  And since this is a likely voter model, that makes sense.

What I DON'T know is whether NH-01 and NH-02 have as BIG a disparity as the UNH poll samples claim.  They have, as RealNRH indicated, a break GOP edge in NH-01, and comparably bigger Dem and indy edges over the GOP in NH-02.

So is the difference in voter registration breakdown between the districts really THAT big?  That's the question, and I just don't know.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
You are forgetting
UNH sucks, and this is the same polling sample that gave Ayotte a 15 point lead, whereas she's likely only up by 5-8, (even Rassmussen shows it at 7), so add eight to both results.

The only other thing was the comical assertion that Charlie Bass was moderate, HAHA. This is the guy that a party unity vote of over 90% and declared right before the 2006 election, that voters shouldn't vote for the Democrat because that's what the terrorists want.  


[ Parent ]
You are forgetting
UNH sucks, and this is the same polling sample that gave Ayotte a 15 point lead, whereas she's likely only up by 5-8, (even Rassmussen shows it at 7), so add eight to both results.

The only other thing was the comical assertion that Charlie Bass was moderate, HAHA. This is the guy that a party unity vote of over 90% and declared right before the 2006 election, that voters shouldn't vote for the Democrat because that's what the terrorists want.  


[ Parent ]
No, not remotely
They do not have anything remotely close to that big a disparity. Coming up with a 15% Republican registration lead in NH-01 would mean a 14.6% Democratic lead in NH-02, and that is decidedly not the case.

NH-01 was rated D+0 and NH-02 was rated D+3 by Cook in 2008. NH-01 is slightly more Republican, but being exceptionally generous it might be a 5% Republican edge (which would imply a corresponding 4.6% Democratic edge in NH-02, to make a 0.4% statewide difference as is the case). That would still mean this sample, at a 15% Republican edge in NH-01, is ten points too favorable to Guinta. A ten point bump added to Guinta is not just a 'LITTLE more Republican.'


[ Parent ]
But doesn't that possibly mean BOTH polls are wrong???......
If the poll overstates GOP vote share in NH-01 and Shea-Porter isn't doing as badly as the UNH numbers show, doesn't it also overstate Dem vote share in NH-02 so that Kuster isn't doing as well as the UNH numbers show?

Actually both are plausible.  I could believe Kuster isn't really up 7 and that Shea-Porter isn't really down that much, and that instead both races are extremely close tossups.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Is she milking this scandal for everything
that it's worth? A lot of times, scandals are trumped up, and it's always nice when it helps your side, but it can be very frustrating when it doesn't. But from what you have described, it sounds like he was trying to pull a fast one on the public. That shit shouldn't fly.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Please don't worry about RI-01
trust me, the Republican wave has not been that strong in RI. That poll has a HUGE MoE, and I don't really trust Quest's polling of RI. Actually, I don't really trust anyone's polling of RI, most pollsters who poll the state are pretty mediocre. I wish PPP would try polling us for once!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
We Ask America/IL-10
I have questions about this.

"Frankly, we weren't planning on polling this one at all.  Conventional wisdom gave Seals a solid name-recognition and political-experience advantage. But the GOP tide keeps rising in the Heartland, and Dold's fund-raising numbers yesterday (he's raised $800K+ this quarter and has a cool million in the bank) could mean that he's peaking at exactly the right moment-so we moved it up the food chain."

Did We Ask America just throw this poll together in the course of a day or less?


Wow, did every likely voter get a call?
Seriously, they got 1148 "Likely" Voters to respond to their poll in a single day. I don't know polling well enough to know if that's a lot, but it seems like a lot.

Also, I suck at math. With that caveat in mind, the 10th is a D+6. If Dold is getting 12% of Dems, somewhat balanced with Seals getting 6% of Republicans, while indies split fairly evenly (50-40 Dold here) ... shouldn't the natural lean of the district mean that Seals, even with these numbers, would be just a bit behind, not down double-digits?

And hell, Seals got 47% (twice) against an entrenched incumbent, and now the seat is open and Bob Dold! is significantly more conservative--to the point where suburban moderates would have to think twice about voting for him--while Seals seems to be running a solid campaign with no obvious gaffes. It just doesn't make sense unless We Ask America is seeing an electorate where liberals spontaneously combust before making it to the polls and the moderates are all drunk and a whole bunch of sure-voting conservatives just moved into the neighborhood.

Or, We Ask America is full of crap. I guess it could be either one.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Yes.
If you read their web site, that is what they do.  They pride themselves on being able to run a poll the same day they get an order.  This poll is one of their automatic dialer ones.  They do big numbers on those, supposedly.

[ Parent ]
That POS poll on PA-4 is . . .
a POS.

No other poll shows Keith Rothfus winning.


Neither does that poll
I'm confused now.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
I've had Heck out for a while now
He seems uninspiring, while Herrera is young and hip. She's run one hell of a campaign, and if it were a less liberal state, she'd be a contender for governorship or something higher in the near future. I have the feeling, though, the momentum is going to switch back to the Dems in Washington after this year.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Has she?
The buzz just the other week was that she hasn't been attending nearly as many events as Heck.

[ Parent ]
That's funny...
One of the GOP supporters here has been criticizing her for being as bad a campaigner as Coakley.

[ Parent ]
More info on Herrera's lack of a campaign
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

the Lower Columbia Daily News asked GOPer Jaime Herrera for a list of campaign events she's done since the August primary, but she refused to provide one, claiming it might be used to attack her. Denny Heck's campaign, for their part, says they think Herrera's all but disappeared from the campaign trail. An unofficial list shows that she supposedly did about a dozen events in this timeframe, to some 30-odd by Heck.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

for comments....


[ Parent ]
Oh. Welll...
I don't know then. Maybe her attractiveness is pulling in a few percentage points.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
IL-10
Because of We Ask America's gloating over Bob Dold's fundaraising, I decided to look at the race on FEC.gov. Fundraising totals are dubious predictions for election outcomes indeed, but I did find something interesting there.

Dold has raised more individual contributions than Dan Seals as of Sept. 30, 2010 ($2,046,729 to $1,935,988), but Dold's individual contributions are spotty between being from in-state and out of state. Seals' individual contributions, on the other hand, are almost straight down the line from Illinois donors.

For example, the first page of Dold's list of individual contributions has 9 out of 20 contributions coming from out of state, while the first page of Seals' list of individual contributions has 20 out of 20 coming from in state.


I ask We Ask
How full of shit are you?  Your bias is showing.

UNH polls are confusing me
When I was on the ground in NH a week ago, the local GOP was very worried about Guinta's ability to seal the deal against CSP, and were more optimistic about Bass. I phonebanked for a few hours (all 1st district independents and soft Rs) and there were many Ayotte/Shea-Porter voters, probably because of Guinta's bank account. So Guinta up 12, especially with Bass trailing, is a big shock to me.

I do believe those UNH and ARG polls giving Ayotte a 15 point lead. People up there seem to genuinely like her, and she appears to be on her way to a 55%+ win.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


When it come to polls of NH-2
...the final numbers aren't as important as the trends shown by each successive poll. I have had a pretty good suspicion for a while now that Anne Kuster is going to pull out a win because each successive poll has her winning an overwhelming majority of the previous poll's undecideds.

[ Parent ]
Anecdotal experiences are VERY misleading in campaigns......
I've said once before here a few weeks back that if I had to guess my own precinct's politics based on my own personal experience here door-knocking and paying attention to bumper stickers and yard signs and just knowing the people I know and walking and driving all over the place, I would guess it's Republican.  I know of more Republicans than Democrats on my block and in my neighborhood, it's a very affluent precinct overall with some of America's richest and most powerful people living in it (Colin Powell and Fred Malek among them), a lot of gated mansion properties, and largely white with Asians (including Indian-Americans like me, not just East Asians) the largest minority group.

And yet when I actually look at hard data, my precinct leans Democratic.  Some Republicans win here, and it's less Democratic than Fairfax County as a whole, but it votes mostly for Democrats, and it voted "NO" on the gay marriage ban in a 2007 referendum.

It's very possible your experience up there and "the word" you heard on the state of the races was simply outdated, that people's perceptions had not caught up to changes in voter sentiment in either district.  The NH-02 movement toward Kuster, assuming UNH is accurate in the trend, is particularly rapid, and volunteers and even staff might not detect it as fast as it's happening.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I hear ya
But this wasn't just "the word"--I gleaned this from a conversation with someone fairly high up in the NH Republican Party (that's as specific as I'll be.) Perhaps it's just extra caution because Shea-Porter has shocked them before, but this person gave me the impression that Guinta is having a very hard time getting over his financial troubles. We spoke less about Bass but this official made it sound like Bass was in better shape.

And yes, my small sample of a few hundred Indies is as unscientific as it gets, but there were a bunch of Ayotte/CSP voters (compared to very few Hodes/Guinta), especially women, and I think that's worth something.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Ah, see, there's your mistake
Your mistake is that you think that someone fairly high up in the NH Republican Party actually knows what's going on.

Now, I'm not just saying that to make fun of Republicans (well, maybe a little).  It's just that in my experience, the higher up someone is (in just about any organization) the less they actually are attuned to changing circumstances on the ground. They get stuck in one narrative and since most people tip-toe around them (because they're a higher-up) it takes them longer to feel the ground trembling.

I would trust canvassers and the like, frankly, a lot more than I would trust the state party chair, for example.

NH Republicans are suddenly in a very tough spot--there are serious ethical issues with the two House nominees, and Ayotte isn't exactly spotless. If the Dems can create a Republicans=corrupt narrative (and they have a LOT of ammo here), I could see even Ayotte losing to a generic D (of which Hodes is practically the definition).  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
And to what extent is the Democratic Party in New Hampshire
flooding the airwaves with talk of these ethical troubles? Perhaps Ayotte is too far ahead to be taken down, although two weeks plus is still a lot of time, but the others appear to be well within the range of establishing leads. Why doesn't Obama make a visit, or maybe Clinton or Biden, or some combination?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Sometimes campaign officials make things sound worse then they are in order to keep the volunteers coming
You're more likely to go help a candidate again if you're told "This is close" or "We're narrowly trailing," instead of "Yeah, it's in the bag.  But can you give up your weekend again?"  

Basically, the rule of thumb is that every campaign is close and you're 200 votes behind.  I wouldn't be too surprised if the GOP decided to fib a bit (although I definitely hope Guinta is really in trouble)


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Well "the word" you heard could be right, and UNH polling could be wrong......
I've always felt, from merely my anecdotal observation, that academic institution polling isn't as good as what the pros do, including the public pollsters.  Of course this cycle has turned polling on its head, since pollsters whose work I used to respect much more, including SUSA and Rasmussen, have been inaccurate and sometimes wildly, rather than just modestly, inaccurate.  Anymore I trust someone like Siena or Marist more than SUSA or Rasmussen.  And even Quinnipiac has had wild outliers in several states this year; they weren't always pinpoint accurate in the past, but they were always in the right ballpark, and this year they're all over the map.

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if even high-level state party personnel aren't completely in touch with real-time changes in momentum.  I remember how after Ron Klein beat Clay Shaw in 2006, Shaw said he was stunned because his private polling right before the election showed him up 5, and instead he loses by 5.

I don't think we really know what's going on in the NH House races.  They've been more volatile than most.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Polling
I don't see how any poll can legitimately called "inaccurate" until the votes have been cast.  Democrats don't like how Ras has WA-Sen as a 1 pointer, and Republicans don't like how Elway has it 15.  The truth "must" be in the middle, and those polls "must" be inaccurate outliers?  I don't accept that answer.  If Murray wins 57-43, was that poll inaccurate?  If she wins 50-49?  The comments here used to be better before everyone on both sides didn't just call BS with every poll they don't like.  We've seem to have been proven wrong quite a few times (though again, we won't know until after 11/2).  I look at it like this:  Just because a lot of other people in your class got a different answer on the math problem doesn't specifically mean you were wrong and they were right.  Not until the teacher tells you the right answer.  Sometimes the problems are hard, and most people get them wrong.

[ Parent ]
We DO know some of these polls are inaccurate......
When Rasmussen had Paul up 25(!) points on Conway, 59-34, post-primary, that was a joke.  Same with Rasmussen polling around that time that had Lincoln in the 20s and down around 40 in AR-Sen.

We know SUSA's VA-05 polling is WAAAAAY off based on revelations that private polling on BOTH sides has consistently shown a single-digit race.  Actually, we knew that even BEFORE those revelations, because a scandal-free incumbent U.S. House member is NEVER down 20 points in July.  That just doesn't happen.

We don't need elections to dismiss polls like those above.  And a particular pollster failing to pass the laugh test in a race, without explanation, justifies challenging that pollster on other races.  The "without explanation" caveat applies to contrast with, for example, PPP's PA-Prez Dem primary polling in 2008, where they showed a dead heat and even Obama leading when EVERYONE else gave Hillary a comfortable lead.  After the fact, PPP acknowledged their polling of that primary was bad and explained they studied what happened and found a methodological error that they later fixed for future polling.  But Rasmussen and SUSA never answer for their outliers like PPP did that time.

Regarding WA-Sen, that's an unusual case where the polling is all over the map.  Most often what we see is a group of polls in the same ballpark, and then maybe the occasional outlier that we know we can dismiss BECAUSE it's an outlier.  WA-Sen obviously doesn't have that, since the polls range broadly from dead-heat to modest-Murray-lead to Murray-blowout.  We still can say that the totality of polling shows Murray is on top, but we don't know by how much, since all but one recent poll has Murray up, and the one exception still shows a one-point race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I get the impression that UNH is about as reliable
as F&M. But then again, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of current results.

[ Parent ]
It's really a shame MN-3
isn't properly shaped because Erik Paulsen with a strong challenger would have been a race because of the things you mention.  He's technically the perfect candidate but the suburbs that are above 50k people and where the average family income is over 100k, they've really moved away from the Republicans with very little things on paper changing but the numbers.  And with Tom Emmer as the nominee, it'd only be exacerbated because he scares the shit out of just about everyone who isnt a solid party-line GOPer.

But alas, the district instead of containing one or two more large suburbs instead has a bunch of small township and cities that vote 2-1 Republican.


[ Parent ]
Award for releasing an internal poll
now goes to Keith Rothfus, who yes, wants to reminds us that he is still in the race down his own internals 11 to Altmire! Reality? (And sorry Raul Labrador and Blanche Lincoln)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Why
Why did he release that P.O.S.?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
That's a good question.
I heard months ago from the NRCC who said that PA-04 was probably not going to flip.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
And hey, Emmanuel Cleaver has an opponent!
I've already forgotten his name, but there's no way he gets within 20 points of Cleaver. Not in MO-05 as it's currently drawn at any rate. Well, maybe if Republicans win 93 seats or something...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Jacob Turk
Cleaver beat him 2-1 in 2006 and 2008. I can see him hitting 40% because of the general swing against Democrats, but nowhere near winning.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
JD can campaign for him. : )

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
MN-01
I know I keep harping on SUSA internals but once again they have me scratching my head. Not only does SUSA have Walz losing the under 35 vote 43-51 they also have under 35s making up only 11% of the electorate (compared to 18% in their recent statewide poll). MN-01 has a large college populations in Blue Earth, Winona and Nicollet counties, I just don't think college kids are that apathetic.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

I agree
And on top of the college towns, you have cities that voted for Obama like Rochester (top 5 largest in state), Albert Lea, Austin, and Worthington.  Although I keep asking myself, am I just biased or is Walz that great of a fit.  He did literally have to be the first one to announce gubernatorial plans as he was rumored and would have crushed anyone and everyone.  And this was widely thought.  He does the perfect job of being liberal enough for us Twin City residents and has the rural charm to dominate Greater Minnesota.

Dayton, Rybak, Walz would be my preferred gubernatorial order.  And it could really happen that way.


[ Parent ]
Question for you college kids....
... or those who have attended recently, Do any college students these days have a land line? It has to be just cell phones right? It's been decades since I went to school so I really don't know. I am trying to figure out how robo pollsters can come anywhere close to measuring young voters.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Depends on whether the student is on or off-campus
I legit don't know anyone who has a land line in a college dorm. On the flip side, if they're off-campus, they almost surely have a land line at home, even if a cell is perhaps used as the primary phone.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Really?
I didn't know anyone off campus who shelled out the extra $30 for a useful landline. Still don't.  

[ Parent ]
No one had landlines
NO ONE!  We already had cell phones and that was our official number freshmen and sophomore year.  Even in the dorms a lot of people didnt even bother with their official dorm phones unless it was for parents (which made no sense).  When most people move off-campus junior and senior year, their numbers are already established so paying for a landline when moving off-campus would be pointless and wasteful.

I bet 18-24 year olds are well above 50% cell-phone only.


[ Parent ]
I didn't in college...
(all of a year ago), either when I lived in a dorm or an off-campus apartment. No one on campus used their landline (provided by the university); none of my friends who lived off-campus had landlines either.

[ Parent ]
?
No one HAS one on campus, or no one USES one?  If it's provided to you for free, and it's a direct dial number (ours were a few years back), then that counts as pollable.

[ Parent ]
My experience is
that even where there was a live jack in the unit, nobody invested in a phone to plug-in, and in the event, nobody would have known the number.  

[ Parent ]
You have to get someone to answer it first
I never answered mine because anyone who calls that number is automatically deemed a telemarketer by me.  And college students arent really in their dorm rooms that often unless it's because everyone is hanging out in your room or you are doing homework/going to bed.

[ Parent ]
In my experience, they only do in the dorm
After you move out of the dorms, it's like, why shell out extra money for a landline? Last year, my old roommates and I could have added a landline to our internet/cable plan for like $10/month extra, and we all decided it was pointless since we all had cellphones. I'm trying to think of one college student or even a twenty-something I know with a landline, and I'm drawing an absolute blank. Between cell-phones and Skype, I have trouble imagining myself shelling out the money for a landline anytime soon.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
In my experience, the answer is NO.
I'm an '08 grad, and I don't know anyone who signed up for a landline after college either.

I had a law school professor ask for a show of hands on this question last year, and he got ZERO.

But my sample is not a good one in terms of other demographics.  


[ Parent ]
I had a law school prof ask the same question
...pretty recently. About five people (out of a class of 45) answered in the affirmative. I was pretty surprised there were any!

[ Parent ]
I had a hook up for a land line
in my dorm for the first two years of college but nobody bought phones to plug in to them. Now I'm in an apartment and its the same situation - a jack for a phone but nobody bothers to buy a phone.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
Nope
In fact, at my university, they removed all the landlines from individual rooms a year ago; now each suite/room has one phone (as opposed to everyone having their own landline)

[ Parent ]
All the dorms have landlines...
...but people rarely use them and I bet a lot of people unplug the jacks. It's VERY annoying when some douchebag with a wrong number wakes you up at 8 AM!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
In college now: I don't have a landline and neither does anyone I know
I live off campus too.  If other colleges are anything like Tulane than pretty much anyone not living at home for college is getting missed.

Interestingly I've been polled twice for local elections in NOLA (never heard of the pollsters).  Very weird since I have a California area code.  Also weird since I was volunteering on both campaigns.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Every room
at my recently-vacated dorm came with a landline phone.

[ Parent ]
at my undergrad school
only 125 people in the entire 10k campus had landlines.  they shut off the landlines, but allowed those who wanted land lines (me for example, because i hate cell phones) to keep theirs. few people use land lines.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for all the replies


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
No.
   Penn State recently took landlines out of their dorms.  You actually have to request a landline to get one.  

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
As you should
And then you also have to pay $25 extra for the voicemail service at my school!

My graduation present from my parents was a laptop and to add me to their cell phone plan.  Best day ever; it taught me how much PC's suck and how shoddy HP is in their products and that I should never have a landline again.


[ Parent ]
The enthusiasm gap can be going to down.

NH-02, PA-11 and PA-07 have the best polls of the lot. And this is very important because shows a movement very logical and interesting.

Many of the bluest districts with worse results until now are going to better. In the last days PA-07, PA-11, WI-07, WA-03 and NH-02 improves a lot. This is a very bad new for the republicans what wish a high advantage from the enthusiasm gap. That mean the democratic efforts are working against it. Still a lot of work for win this race but now they are hope.

IL-10 and TN-04 have the worst polls of the lot.

Pingree appear consistently better than Michaud in the polls. I think this is a interesting data too.


I don't know...
I don't think there's a chance Kanjorski or Julie Lassa wins. I thought the same about Danny Heck until I heard the Republican wasn't running a good campaign.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
The poll in this post
is the closest Kanjo has been in a while. Could be that Democrats in this Democratic leaning district are starting to come home to him.

[ Parent ]
No, because he's still in the low 40s.
Honestly, he's not rising, Barletta is just dropping.  In an open seat like PA-07, that's legitimately heartening.  In Kanjo's district, where he's the longtime incumbent, that's still a big problem.  And of course it assumes this one poll is accurate.  House race polling is so erratic, with independent polls just as erratic as private ones, that I just throw my hands up and give up completely trying to decipher these kinds of changes.

IL-10 is another perfect example, where Dold's 50-39 edge is unlike ALL other polling, and by a big margin.  So I dismiss it, and even then not completely, because the pundits still call this race a tossup without changing it, so who knows what's really going on?  No doubt Seals' camp has had strong polling showing him up, and campaign analysts have suggested the same in blurbs about the race.  But has something changed in October?  Things do change in October, so I just don't know.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I remember every released poll in 2008 showed him down by more
We can always hope they make the same mistakes again.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I think the Obama wave simply carried him over the top, which went undetected......
That's the scary thing about waves, they overcome even decent polling.

I was shocked on election night that Kanjo won.  We lost a few incumbents that night (and Bill Jefferson in the runoff later), and I was shocked Kanjo wasn't among them.  Sometimes you just can't overcome a district's natural lean, which is why ultimately Kanjo won while Lampson and Boyda lost.

But I doubt polling is likely to "miss" anything this time where it shows a Dem in trouble.  The wave is against us this time, so it will be FAR MORE shocking if Kanjo survives again.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I was surprised by how little
attention the Lampson loss got.

The DCCC spent lots of money on his race, he spend lots of money (IIRC), and he didn't even come close.

So yeah, I know that the district was drawn for a Republican, but I thought that DeLay had taken on extra Democrats in order to mint more Republicans in his gerrymander. On top of that, Democrats have a record in recent history of being reelected in districts they have no business representing.

I think that record is about to fall on its face next month, but it would be useful to have had some "lessons learned" from Lampson's losing campaign.  


[ Parent ]
Man, as someone who was working in TX-22, I was surprised Lampson got so close
Nick ran a god awful campaign. I went through Glenn Rose last week, Chet had more signs out than Flores, about 1.5:1. Not much of an advantage but he was out. He's putting out statements and making news, he's running tv ads constantly. Nick ran 2 tv ads total, and had the assist of 1 by the DCCC. His field campaign STARTED in August. Oh yeah, and remember, Obama won PA-11 convincingly, he lost TX-22 terribly. I saw it early on, there was an "anti-Obama wave" in Clear Lake and around NASA. THis was in 2008, people were teapartying early on, raise taxes, redistribute wealth, secret Muslim, I saw it all in Fall 2008.

DeLay took extra democrats, they came in Galveston county. They now consider themselves Republicans. Meanwhile, his republicans from Fort Bend county consider themselves independents and might actually vote for a democrat these days.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Nick Lampson is not a good campaigner
He does not get too many crossover voters like Edwards does. I remember 2004 when he was running against an opponent who hadn't run a campaign in TWELVE years, (and it showed), and who, was ultra-conservative, and Lampson still lost 55-45, despite tons of money. Meanwhile Chet Edwards won despite Kerry's 30% vote total in TX-17.

Then in 2008 Lampson battled health issues, started the campaign late, wasn't a big fundraiser, and didn't appear to have strengthened his position. His only hope was running against Sekula-Gibbs. When she lost it was all over.  


[ Parent ]
...and the pollster himself spins that Maffei is in trouble......
"'There's no question that at 51-39, this race is not over,' said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg, noting that undecided voters traditionally favor the challenger."

Forget the 50% rule, you need 60% or even 70% or you'll use!

I can see where maybe the news story took Greenberg out of context...he simply could've been prompted to say that from being asked if Maffei is safe, if this one is over, and he wouldn't want to say definitively that it is.

But the quote looks bad as presented.

What I find interesting is that the poll shows Maffei at 50-40 favorability, with Buerkle upside down at 33-41.  I haven't followed this race, but Buerkle hasn't made any national headlines with crazy teabag-worthy rhetoric, so has Maffei really been so effective at defining her locally?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Swamped her in the money race
Maffei has raised $2.6 million, Buerkle has raised $500k. As of 9/30 he's sitting on a 4-1 cash advantage, $774k to $187k. Candidate fundraising has obviously stopped being important in the top-tier taces, where outside groups are spending millions, but in a second or third-tier race like this, it's crucial. I think the NRCC has spent some money here, but it won't be nearly enough. I expect Maffei to win pretty easily, say about 57-43.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, and that just shows some GOP internals are bunk......
So Buerkle's released internal had Maffei at 39, which in October for an incumbent is certain death.

And yet that appears to be FAR removed from reality.

It makes me wonder how Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato, and others justify relying on internal polls without having some independent basis to judge their validity.  Maybe they DO have that independent basis for the races where they also cite specific internal polls in their columns and other write-ups, but that's not clear.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I suspect it's like what I told user conspiracy the other day
When I write for publication (in computing), I read a lot of public data, and get some inside information too. In this Internet age, it is sooooo easy to find conflicting but "credible" information, even on a topic as "objective" as computing.

Where the "inside information" is still private, I don't include it in what I write, so I don't have to cite "unnamed sources".

However, the "inside information" that I do get does influence the public information that I do use.

So the question w/r/t Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato, etc. is whether the insiders who they trust -- who have presumably been reliable in the past -- have now been feeding them misinformation for the purpose of driving the narrative.


[ Parent ]
Landlines and Other Systematic Errors
Half the people I know in their 30s don't even have landlines.  Even homeowners are dumping the things.

The other big possible systematic error is using the "enthusiasm gap" to justify a sample with a big R component, while your "Independent" component is full of T's, out of which about half identify as Independent despite their deep hatred of the Obama Party.  You should expect fewer "Republican" voters this year, not more.



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