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SSP Updates 37 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 1:04 PM EDT


With only two weeks remaining, it's time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who's on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we've added House incumbents to the "Lean Republican" column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent -- Tom Feeney -- to "Lean D," also about two weeks prior to the election.)

  • DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
  • FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

  • IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
  • SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R

  • AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
  • AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
  • CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
  • GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
  • IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
  • IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
  • IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
  • MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
  • MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
  • MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
  • NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
  • NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
  • OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
  • OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
  • OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
  • OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
  • PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
  • TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
  • WA-08: Likely R to Lean R

28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.
Crisitunity :: SSP Updates 37 Race Ratings
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SSP Updates 37 Race Ratings | 45 comments
Is SSP proffering a House prediction (R OR D Control)?
At this point?
That's an interesting question
I do know that in the final days before the elections, I'll be putting up a prediction challenge within my house/senate rankings, and in those we'll all put up our final numbers.  That way we'll be able to compare the calls from users that have been following it all the way, like Spiderdem, Abgin, myself, Andyroo, Gradydem, and yes, Mark (Ugh, man, just ugh).

It'll be cool to see who comes the closest in terms of overall, and who gets what seats right.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
If it's any consolation
I've preferred your predictions to the others'.
[ Parent ]
SSP has never done that to my recollection.
But Stephen's sure to give you his usual well-presented predictions.  I probably will too at some point.  I haven't done one in a long time.  There will no doubt be others.  And yes, I'm sure Mark will have ramped it up to triple digit losses by his next prediction.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Two disagreements
AZ-07: Safe D straight to Tossup?  I only see three pieces of evidence for a legitimate race: the American Political Consultants poll (McClung internal), the Magellan poll (Republican "private client"), and a $60K DCCC outlay (h/t spiderdem).  The recent DCCC involvement does concern me, but until the Republicans enter the game financially or a public poll confirms Grijalva's weakness, I have him at Likely D.

CA-18:  Cardoza will fall before Costa.  He has a tougher district and a better opponent.  I have him at Tossup.

Isn't a lot of the spending
in districts like AZ-07 better seen as a purely natural response or an insurance policy? It's not as if the DSCC is going to sit back, but they aren't dropping $300,000.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Blah, DCCC.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yes, that's how I view it (eom)

[ Parent ]
I have to say,
on a purely unrelated note, this site is awesome. There are enough people here that you can have a conversation, but there are not too many so that each individual is lost. Plus, it saves me, and certainly many others, a lot of time in gathering up the polling. I'm glad I remembered it from a few years ago.

On the other hand, it's preventing me from getting any work done, so, off I go...for now.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
AZ
I don't think either AZ 7 or AZ 8 is a tossup. Grijalva has never won by fewer than 20 points, and McClung is a who-dat. Unless I missed something, Kelly was tied in his own internal and every other poll shows Giffords ahead. I think AZ 7 is likely D, AZ 8 lean D.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Well, apparently McClung found enough change under her couch to run an ad
So I'll admit I was wrong about the idea that she wouldn't be able to define hersef. I just saw the ad on CNN a little while ago. So she's probably not quite a who-dat anymore. You can see it here. Overall, not at all the worst introductory ad I've ever seen, but it's hardly a game changer. She tries to pack way too much into a thirty-second spot (I'M ANGRY! BOYCOTTS! I LOVE JOBS BUT WON'T GET SPECIFIC ABOUT HOW I'LL BRING THEM TO AZ! I CAN'T PRONOUNCE NOGALES AND I'M DAMN PROUD OF IT! I'M A SCIENTIST!) and the jerky camera motions make it look like amateur hour. Her bigger problem is that she's running a very conservative platform; the first paragraph of her website proudly advertises the fact that she's a "conservative Republican."

I suspect this race will end up a lot like PA-12 in 2008. National politicos declare the incumbent imperiled because of what they perceive as a major gaffe, but the incumbent ends up just fine because maybe, just maybe, a long-time public servant knows their corner of the country a tiny bit better than outsiders.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
AZ-07 seems like a real overreaction
There won't be Republican coattails, because unless Brewer surpasses 60% of the vote statewide, she's not going to win the district. Grijalva probably will have a reduced majority, but I don't see him in serious trouble.
[ Parent ]
New PPP/Kos poll has Quayle losing!
Hulburd 46
Quayle 44

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Hot damn


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Yup, saw that, and it's STUNNING. Looks like SSP needs to change AZ-03...
...to lean R.

I wouldn't say tossup just yet based on one poll.  The party committees aren't spending here I don't think, and AZ as a whole is projected to be one of our worst states on election night.  So Quayle still deserves a "lean" rating I think.  But I trust this poll enough to say "lean" rather than "likely."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I do worry that this poll will wake up GOP
And especially the third party spenders.  This would have been a nice one for Kos to sit on.  
[ Parent ]
Hey
Takes money from elsewhere then job done.
[ Parent ]
Either way, we benefit
They put in money here that should be spent on offense, or we have another seat to add to the FL-25/WA-08/CA-03 upset watch list.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
So many articles about the Repubs "expanding the battlefield"
with their spending, the past couple of weeks.
It would be terrific we had the opportunity to expand the battlefield slightly in our favor here with AZ-03.
[ Parent ]
winning the seat isnt guaranteed
While making the NRCC spend here would be a near certainty.
[ Parent ]
Wow
Depending on how things go, AZ could end up anywhere from 6D-2R to 7R-1D.  Sort of like LA last cycle... sigh.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
There has been a lot of steam building
against R incumbents within the last few weeks.  First, Delbene started moving up against Reichert.  Bera shows that he's neck and neck with Lungren.  You've got the internals showing Garcia ahead of Rivera and Edwards ahead of Ross, which were never repudiated by the other side or by public polling.  And now Hulburd ahead of Quayle.  

I really think that these R incumbents in swing districts, guys like Patrick Tiberi, Mary Bono Mack, and Bill Young, might be in a lot more danger than the pundits think.  The Tea Partiers that have been railing so hard against the democrats have also been known to rail against their own kind at times.  Up to this point, it was widely assumed that their cannibalism was only taking out more electable incumbents in the primaries, but perhaps in districts with R incumbents, these people won't be motivated to keep their representatives in office.  This is especially true for such representatives like Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and others who voted for stuff like cap-n-trade and the repeal of DADT.  

This is a late developing story, but could be one that ends up being a major talking point on election night and the days afterward, particularly if the democrats pick up 8, 9, 10 Rep seats and keep the House as a result.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Boy I WISH, but I'm afraid I must see that as wishful thinking......
What all these newly tight races in GOP-held seats mean to me is simply that we're now very likely to pick up 5 or maybe even 6 GOP-held seats instead of 4, but it's not going to be a dramatic difference from the 4 we've long thought we'd get.  I don't see 8-10 pickups.  I hope you're right, but I can't help be think otherwise.  Just like the GOP won't get all our vulnerable seats, we certainly won't get all of theirs.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I see it less as wishful thinking...
Than as somewhat logical.  If it truly is an anti-incumbent year and the Republicans are less popular than the Democrats, then it stands to reason there will be some Republican incumbents in more danger than the narrative-driven media want to admit.  It's one of the weirder cycles we've seen; I'm expecting some weird results.  It wouldn't particularly shock me to see something as impossible to spin as both Bachmann and, say, Dingell, losing their jobs.  
[ Parent ]
I think it is in part anti-incumbent feeling that is helping DelBene
and I think the race in WA 8 is more appropriately classed a "toss-up" now. I expect Reichert to win in the Pierce County part of the district but DelBene will win in King County.  
[ Parent ]
MN-6 is a seat to watch
The two suburbs that are a sixth of the district have had time to digest her crazy and will be voting against her hugely this time I believe.

Hopefully Clark can brunt any conservative back-lash in her hometown and the largest city in her district, St. Cloud.  It's slightly Dem leaning but is classic pro-guns, pro-life and a very very Catholic town.  They won't ever go for Bachmann but it's conervative enough to make me pause.

We'll see; both candidates have the money to run an A-list campaign and Bachmann has never had anywhere to go but down in polling.  

[ Parent ]
Tough about TX-17
I think Edwards is a decent guy. If he goes down, does anyone think he could take a stab at the Senate in 2012 or 2014 depending on the climate? I imagine that this year marks the peak of Republican popularity (or at least I hope...).

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
At least the DCCC isn't giving up.

Maybe their polling is showing something we aren't seeing.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's almost as good
as the ad that I recently saw from Chuck Schumer that was in crisp, beautiful color and talked about how he fought for the wife of a firefighter that recently died. Perhaps Schumer can just make all of the ads for our candidates from now on.

http://www.chuckschumer.com/mu...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Maybe Schumer can be talked into
taking over the DSCC again next year (he certainly did good in '06 & '08, tho obviously those weren't Repub wave years). Then he can have some impact on that.
(Assuming he's not the new majority leader if Reid loses).
[ Parent ]
DCCC going in . . .
This bailout thing the Dallas Morning News discovered and Chet sweeping the newspaper endorsements (no word from Waco Tribune Herald yet, the ONLY paper to endorse Perry so far) is breathing some fire into his campaign. Chet had good will and had plenty of people who liked him but were willing to vote for Flores because they want GOP control. They FINALLY got something solid enough to define Flores as bad for the district and untrustworthy.

This issue is now big enough to change the race dynamics from a questionable positive vs. an unknown positive to a questionable positive vs. a negative.

I saw Chet is a questionable positive cause he's got that D next to his name which may "give strength to Pelosi and those rotten Dems"

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
he better run statewide
If he can win TX-17, he can certainly win statewide if everything falls into place.  And if Obama is looking strong enough I think he'd go for the gold and add Texas to his electoral trophies by going all out here.  He's a smart man, he can see the political implications of setting up TX for Hillary to win it in 2016.  (I can dream.)

After White, do we really have anyone else ready to give statewide a go besides Edwards?

[ Parent ]
and Nick Lampson and Chris Bell
Are both laughable options.  Their time is over.  Time to get a real job I'd say.
[ Parent ]
I'm with you man
In my perfect world, we would have Sen. Chet Edwards (D-TX) and President Hillary Clinton come January 2017. Sadly, our bench is pretty much empty after Edwards. I know there's a young guy named Castro who's mayor of San Antonio, though. Not sure if he could compete statewide.

Or perhaps we could summon the soul of Anne Richards?

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
AR-01 - DCCC Poll
Causey 44, Crawford 42

http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry...

Also at the bottom of the page is an OR-04 poll that I had previously missed, showing DeFazio up 14.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

DeFazio was just under 50 in the GOP poll
Didn't need the DCCC to tell me Robinson isn't winning. Same rule means Causey is down but maybe not completely out.
[ Parent ]
I stopped following the AR races awhile ago
Causey could win but he falls into the category of races I don't have time to care about anymore.  Same with WV-1, is that a toss-up still?  
[ Parent ]
ppp
Roy Blunt up 46-41 in MO. Getting closer, it could theoretically be a pick up.  
I dunno...
   Carnahan has favorables of 39-53.  That's bad.  She's close only because the libertarian and the constitution party candidates are each taking 3% of the vote.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Oh ya. What's the cause of these favorables
Did she have some under the radar scandal or something? or do all Missourians just hate democrats now
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing the later.
   Female candidates seem to be doing badly too for some reason.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Yep
Party label. Nothing more. The big clue was the fact Obama didn't win the state when on national swing it should have fallen long before Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana.
[ Parent ]
It's a quirk of PPP results that ALL candidates are UNDERWATER in favorability. Even Blunt...
...is underwater at 42-45 in this poll.

And honestly, that's the one consistent thing in PPP's polling that I find hard to believe.

The voters hate EVERYBODY?!  Really?!

A few months ago they polled OH and found even Voinovich underwater.  He's retiring, and since he announced early no one at all has been criticizing him in any way.  He's always been personally well-liked and viewed as a moderate who nevertheless votes largely with his party.  And for all that Ohioans suddenly turned on him?

Doesn't quite pass the sniff test to me.

I have no idea if the consistently low opinions PPP respondents claim to have of candidates skews the horse race numbers at all, and I can't say on the surface they necessarily should since the high unfavorables are across the board.  But it's an oddity in the sampling that I have a hard time swallowing nonetheless.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
Yay!!!
Walt finally got an upgrade! (seeings as he's trailed in one poll out of about a dozen, that being in June)

The biggest thing that killed Labrador? Well, being Latino in a district that is 91% white and 6% hispanic (or about 2% legal hispanic) definitely was the main thing.

SSP Updates 37 Race Ratings | 45 comments

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