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CT-Sen: Back to Double Digits in Quinnipiac

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 2:27 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (49)
Linda McMahon (R): 43 (46)
Undecided 3 (4)
(MoE: ±2.9%)

Remember back when everyone got all in a tizzy because Quinnipiac suddenly saw the Connecticut Senate race collapse to a 3-point lead for Richard Blumenthal? Of course, that panic lasted about a week before about half a dozen polls in two days showed that it was really a double-digit race. Well, Quinnipiac's back, and they too find that it's now a double-digit race, with Blumenthal up 11, and at the 54% mark. Blumenthal's favorables are 57/38, compared to McMahon's 46/46. Qpac's head Douglas Schwartz, in the poll writeup, muses "Linda McMahon may have peaked too soon and her advertising saturation could be causing 'McMahon fatigue.'" (I suppose that sounds better than saying "Uh, yeah, that was an outlier.")

OK, that's not entirely fair to Quinnipiac, because there's a lot of anecdotal evidence to that effect. In fact, it's the story on the front page of the New York Times today, focusing on McMahon's inability to connect with female voters, and the mind-numbing ad overkill (echoes of Meg Whitman here?) is a big part of that. Of course, the more relevant NYT story might be that they also just endorsed Blumenthal, despite their hatchet job on him earlier. They did (correctly, I'm afraid) describe him as "charm-free, though.

Also, despite McMahon's attempts to steer the discussion toward lunchpail issues, the story seems to be steering back toward her unpleasant tenure as head of the WWE, as seen in a new spate of news stories today, especially from the major in-state newspaper, the Hartford Courant, focusing on steroid and prescription drug abuse in the WWE. The DSCC is also fanning the flames, launching a new TV ad that's probably their harshest attack yet on the WWE years (maybe they were saving the best for last).
Crisitunity :: CT-Sen: Back to Double Digits in Quinnipiac
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CT-Sen: Back to Double Digits in Quinnipiac | 37 comments
So
what you're saying is that Linda McMahon has yet to hulk up and attempt the big boot and leg drop in this race? Seems like a sleeperhold has been applied here.

(/all i've got)

Yeah..
.. I watched the WWE as a kid back in the 90s (when it was the WWF; D-X was cool, what can I say?), and I still can't believe I am hearing the words "Linda McMahon" and "Senate" in the same sentence.

It's like if Maury Povich ran for Congress.

I can't help but think a little part of the USA died with the 2003 California recall election.

BUT, BUT!!!!
Charlie Cook keeps telling me that it's a toss up. He's told me this 2-3 times now!

He's also saying odds are better we lose >50 than not.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Oh Charlie Cook...
I'm afraid he's jumped the shark, to use a pop culture phrase. Predicting a Republican takeover of the House back in February 2010 was really shark-jumping-like.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.c...

I don't care if his Feb. prediction comes true, there's no possible way he could've known that back then.  

[ Parent ]
ok
so can the MSM stop calling this race a "toss-up"?  I guess if it tricks conservatives to pour money in this state instead of Nevada or Colorado then that would be ok.
Damn that liberal media!
It's giving republican's false hopes that they can take back both chambers! Making them in essence waste their money on races they can't win.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yeah, this race is safely back in Likely D territroy
The GOP should be thankful, however, that it's not Rob Simmons who's behind by 9 to 11 points. It's Linda McMahon, who, unlike the dirt-broke Simmons, doesn't need the national GOP to pump a penny into this thing. Financially, it's all at her discretion from here on out. At least Meg Whitman, with her tens of millions, is probably within striking distance still.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Unlikely
RCP aggregates this at being Brown +5, while 538 gives Brown a 77% chance of winning.  This race is over, especially in blue state like california, this is more than over.  If these numbers were in a place like say texas, there is always the possibility for the many republicans in the state to come home and push Meggy over the top.

Unfortunately for her, she is running in one of the bluest states in the country.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
And with a widening deficit among Latinos n/t

[ Parent ]
Poor Izengabe
He's been relentless promoting McMahon, seemingly out of the quirky desire that he'd like to see her win as a fan of WWE. Alas, she has been quagmired in the low to mid 40s, and Blumenthal has had a stable lead late in the race. New England is the one area of the country unlikely to see significant losses for Democrats, all they'll end up making some gains.  
Really?
Republicans are in the lead in both NH house races, Ayotte has a comfortable lead, there hasn't been any polling that I've seen of MA-10 but that should be rated as no better than lean Dem, and CT-04 and CT-05 will both be close. Granted they may take VT Gov and almost certainly will take CT and RI Gov, but Mass Gov is not a walk yet and LePage has been leading every poll for ME Gov. It's really looking like a wash at best in New England, with some probable GOP House pickups at the least.  
[ Parent ]
This is the election that proves
My New England thesis. LePage's lead has collapsed in Maine and that race is essentially tied and I expect Mitchell to pull away with it.

CT-04 and CT-05 won't be that close, just watch.

You have very little to go in New Hampshire's house race's other than traditionally awful UNH polls. What's more I would hardly call Ayotte's 4-5 point lead 'comfortable' and what's more both NH house races have been essentially tied and Guinta is a highly flawed cnadidate, and Bass is running a lethargic campaign, (as seen in the NRCC's decision to purchase 1 million dollars in airtime for him), and what's more Hodes will probably win his district, if only narrowly, and htat means Bass, a rgiid conservative, (and he's being painted that way very effectively by Kluster's campaign), so all in our you aren't really justifed in saying Republicans lead in both NH races, that is insanely bullish on their odds.

MA-10 is lean dem, but Perry has too many problems and Keating should be able to win. Mass Gov is essentially going to stay Dem,, as are the DE and CT Senate races, as well as bth New York Seats, and most of the it's house seats. I only see republicans picking up one House seat in New York at this point, and none anywhere else in New England. It is the only area of the country where Democrat's still have a significant lead in the generic ballot.  

[ Parent ]
New York and Delaware are not in New England
nt

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Beyond the fact
that NY and DE are not in New England, I fully expect at least 2-3 NY Dem seats to flip, if not more. NY 29 is gone and NY 19 is lean Republican at this point. I also think NY 24, 23 and 01 have at least 50/50 shots at flipping. And DE is obviously going Dem.

RCP has a solid +9 lead for Ayotte in NH and I really feel that just given the nature of the state and the cycle that both House seats there flip. By no means am I saying that New England, or New York for that matter, will see a GOP sweep, I just feel its inevitable that they make some gains, especially given the carnage that's been wrought throughout the region since 2004. Believe it or not there are still Republicans in the Northeast, even if they haven't voted that way in a couple cycles, haha.  

[ Parent ]
NY-19 is not lean Republican
Especially when Siena has a smaller lead there than give Owens who you say is 50-50. Both are tossups. Bishop is ahead double digits according to Siena. And they had Arcuri up 8. You can believe the latest GOP internal from the NY-24 if you like but I think it probable the incumbent has the edge there. Not to mention of all of these may yet be helped by three landslides at the top of the ticket. I agree Ayotte is more than likely to win.
[ Parent ]
This is the election that proves
My New England thesis. LePage's lead has collapsed in Maine and that race is essentially tied and I expect Mitchell to pull away with it.

CT-04 and CT-05 won't be that close, just watch.

You have very little to go in New Hampshire's house race's other than traditionally awful UNH polls. What's more I would hardly call Ayotte's 4-5 point lead 'comfortable' and what's more both NH house races have been essentially tied and Guinta is a highly flawed cnadidate, and Bass is running a lethargic campaign, (as seen in the NRCC's decision to purchase 1 million dollars in airtime for him), and what's more Hodes will probably win his district, if only narrowly, and htat means Bass, a rgiid conservative, (and he's being painted that way very effectively by Kluster's campaign), so all in our you aren't really justifed in saying Republicans lead in both NH races, that is insanely bullish on their odds.

MA-10 is lean dem, but Perry has too many problems and Keating should be able to win. Mass Gov is essentially going to stay Dem,, as are the DE and CT Senate races, as well as bth New York Seats, and most of the it's house seats. I only see republicans picking up one House seat in New York at this point, and none anywhere else in New England. It is the only area of the country where Democrat's still have a significant lead in the generic ballot.  

[ Parent ]
This is the election that proves
My New England thesis. LePage's lead has collapsed in Maine and that race is essentially tied and I expect Mitchell to pull away with it.

CT-04 and CT-05 won't be that close, just watch.

You have very little to go in New Hampshire's house race's other than traditionally awful UNH polls. What's more I would hardly call Ayotte's 4-5 point lead 'comfortable' and what's more both NH house races have been essentially tied and Guinta is a highly flawed cnadidate, and Bass is running a lethargic campaign, (as seen in the NRCC's decision to purchase 1 million dollars in airtime for him), and what's more Hodes will probably win his district, if only narrowly, and htat means Bass, a rgiid conservative, (and he's being painted that way very effectively by Kluster's campaign), so all in our you aren't really justifed in saying Republicans lead in both NH races, that is insanely bullish on their odds.

MA-10 is lean dem, but Perry has too many problems and Keating should be able to win. Mass Gov is essentially going to stay Dem,, as are the DE and CT Senate races, as well as bth New York Seats, and most of the it's house seats. I only see republicans picking up one House seat in New York at this point, and none anywhere else in New England. It is the only area of the country where Democrat's still have a significant lead in the generic ballot.  

[ Parent ]
Not sure that Debicella or Caligiuri have a chance
given the large wins Malloy and Blumenthal are likely to have. Plus, there are MANY open seats on the state level in CT this year, which should help drive voters to the polls, including our first-ever gay candidate to statewide office (Lembo for Comptroller). So my sense is that the enthusiasm gap will be minimal here, much less than elsewhere.

The only sign CT-05 may be in play was a Merriman-River poll from 1-2 weeks ago. Murphy quickly answered with an internal poll showing a lead in the teens.

Also, McMahon may drive a significant gender gap in the state, further protecting Himes and Murphy. Caligiuri doesn't have much money, so he'll be almost entirely dependent on outside support.

[ Parent ]
This is some amazing spin
I don't know if Guinta has been ahead in any non-internals, but given his weaknesses as a candidate and CSP's come-from-behind win in 2006, I wouldn't get too excited about his chances. Bass blew a double-digit lead and is now barely ahead of Kuster. Debicella and Caligiuri are too conservative and will have trouble surviving in the future if they even manage to win this time around, which I doubt they will. LePage has also lost his lead. It is possible (albeit not probable, I will admit) Dems will walk away from this election with every New England governorship, although I am still holding out hope Chafee wins, but I'd definitely prefer Caprio to Robitaille.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac never poll the statewide offices in his home state?

I would like to see about this.

Well, positive news from Connecticut.

[ Parent ]
Sorry

I include the comment as answer by mistake.
[ Parent ]
"his"?
Quinnipiac is a university, it's not the name of a pollster like Zogby or Rasmussen.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sorry

Surely you will find more mistakes, I'm not a native english speaker.
[ Parent ]
I don't pick at every grammatical mistake
but this wasn't a grammatical mistake. IMO it is a very important distinction in terms of the motivation of the pollster.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's a grammatical mistake
In Romance languages, there is no "it," only he and she.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Isn't abgin's native language Basque?
(although I will readily admit I don't know about the pronouns in Basque, either)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I know nothing about Basque grammar
But I've noticed that the mistakes abgin makes tend to be common to a lot of the foreign students I've worked with whose native languages are Romance.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Why is DSCC spending money here if it's locked up?
I get "better safe than sorry", but there is close races that could use that money.  

DSCC only has a handful of races to worry about anymore it seems - all on defense except Kentucky.

Pa, Ky, Nv, Il, and WV.

I would not understand

I would not understand if the DSCC spend in KY and spend not in WI or CO.
[ Parent ]
Feingold does not want assistance
from the party. So that's a non-issue.

Bennet is very much in it, and I assume he'll be getting steady support through Election Day.

[ Parent ]
You are right, non-issue

But I think someone must find the way for help in WI.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call it a non-issue.
The party has put money into Wisconsin before to save Feingold despite his protests.

What's good for the goal of retaining the Senate and what Feingold don't necessarily correlate.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Yes, it's a non-issue...
I suppose the party could pay for polling expenses or something, but they will not contribute to marketing. How would Feingold explain that? His party not listening to him?
[ Parent ]
They're called "independent expenditures" for a reason
He's not supposed to communicate with the party about them, and he can explain that as a requirement of campaign finance law.
[ Parent ]
It has happen before with Feingold if I recall.
In 1998 over Feingold's objection the DSCC put up strong attack ads against Mark Neumann that helped save him in his lackluster campaign.

Feingold attacked the DSCC and asked them to stop.  However Feingold won by 1.5%.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Might be time to dig up that playbook again (eom)

[ Parent ]
Tomorrow morning,
we should see Q-Poll CT-Gov results - at least, if past patterns persist. This cycle, they've been reporting Gov results the day after Senate.

Like Blumenthal, Malloy was up only 3 in Q's last survey.

CT-Sen: Back to Double Digits in Quinnipiac | 37 comments

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