• CO-Sen: This probably doesn’t count as an October Surprise since it made a big media impression five years ago, but it’s suddenly popped back into view, and making things dicier for Ken Buck, already on the wrong end of a sizable gender gap in the polls. Buck refused to prosecute a rape case as Weld Co. DA five years ago (despite the police having recommended charges), and the alleged victim is now back in the news. She has a taped recording of their meeting (transcript available at the link) in which he seems to blame the victim and suggest that the case wouldn’t pass muster with a jury.
• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (23)
Marco Rubio (R): 42 (40)
Charlie Crist (I): 27 (28)
(MoE: ±4%)
With Marco Rubio way ahead, it looks like a Kendrick Meek dropout (rumored on Friday) and a cobbling-together of some sort of Meek/Crist hybrid cyborg would be the only way for the non-Rubio forces to get an advantage in this race. However, Meek’s definitely not acting like a man who’s dropping out, if getting the president of the United States to cut a radio ad for you is any indication.
• WV-Sen: Remember that “hicky” ad that the NRSC ran, and then promptly got apologetic over, once the casting call instructions got leaked? (I know, that was last week, a lifetime ago in politics…) Now it sounds like it just kept running anyway, through last Friday for several days after the story broke, despite promises to take it down.
• NM-Gov: Yep, this is definitely the most over-polled, or at least over-internal-poll-leaked, race around. Today it’s Diane Denish’s turn to retaliate, and she’s out with another poll from one of her apparently two pollsters, Third Eye Strategies, with a 46-46 tie (a little stale, taken 9/21-23). I think we get the general idea, already: Denish sees a tie, Susana Martinez sees a high-single-digits lead for herself, public pollsters see something in between. (UPDATE: That’s odd… we reported this poll several weeks ago. Not sure why it’s back in the news today.)
• CA-47: This is the kind of unity that Loretta Sanchez (last seen alienating her district’s small but politically active Vietnamese community with an ill-advised remark) probably doesn’t like to see: apparently there was a major rift with the Vietnamese Republican community that just got sealed up, as long-time Van Tran rival Janet Nguyen (an Orange County councilor) gave a late-game endorsement to Tran.
• CT-02, CT-03: Merriman River Group hits the quinella in Connecticut, with polls of the two House races in the Nutmeg State that aren’t interesting. In the 2nd, despite getting some touting when she got in the race, GOPer Janet Peckinpaugh is making little impression against Joe Courtney, trailing 55-41. And in the 3rd, Rosa DeLauro is the state’s safest Dem, leading Jerry Labriola 58-37.
• FL-22: Endorsements from primary challengers, especially at this stage in the game, are interesting only when they go to the guy from the other party. But that’s what’s happening in the 22nd, where the guy who lost to Allen West, David Brady, gave his backing to Democratic incumbent Ron Klein today. (So too did several minor-league local elected GOPers, including Palm Beach mayor Jack McDonald.) Says Brady, apparently from the sane wing of the GOP (to the extent that the Palm Beach Post endorsed him in the primary): “I ran against Allen West. I debated him and I can tell you: Allen West is too extreme for this community.”
• MS-04: Dueling polls in the 4th, where everything still averages out to a Democratic lean but unfortunately this is looking like one more real race. GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo offered a poll a few weeks ago saying incumbent Gene Taylor led by only 4, and now Taylor says, no, he’s leading by 8 (without giving us any other useful information, like the toplines, let alone the pollster or dates). Hmmm, that’s only a difference of four points, so why show your hand, especially in such haphazard fashion? Somehow I don’t think Taylor would be a very good poker player.
• NY-22, NY-25: Bill Clinton showing up in upstate New York to stump on behalf of Dan Maffei, that’s not a surprise, as this race seems to be competitive. But also Maurice Hinchey in the 22nd? We haven’t gotten any smoke signals out of that district before, but that’s an indication that something may bubbling under here. (It’s a D+6 district, and Hinchey barely won in ’94.)
• OH-01: One more unfortunate though unsurprising triage decision to report: Steve Driehaus seems to have run out of time at the DCCC, who are canceling their remaining ad buy in the Cincinnati market for the next two weeks. The deadline for reservations cancellations is coming up soon, so we’ll soon know who else gets the shortest straw drawn for them.
• PA-10: After seeing a incumbent Chris Carney up by single digits in a recent public poll from Lycoming, GOP challenger Tom Marino rummaged around in his poll drawer and pulled out one from the Tarrance Group giving him a 47-42 lead on Carney. (No word from the Fix on the dates, though.)
• TN-04: One last GOP internal to throw into the mix: a POS survey (from 9/27-28) on behalf of Scott DesJarlais shows him tied with Dem incumbent Lincoln Davis, 42-42. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race (and may not, as the NRCC doesn’t seem to be pushing this one hard, maybe on the off chance that it’s the kind of district that’ll flip in a wave regardless of what they do), but Davis claimed an 11-point lead in a late August internal.
• House: If you’re thinking that it seems like there are a lot more races in the “Tossup” and “Lean” categories this year, you’re not alone. Nate Silver quantifies various ways in which there are way more competitive races this year than in other recent cycles, including number of races where there are polls within single-digits, where there are polls period, and where there are major financial contributions.
• Redistricting: This is an interesting, if counterintuitive, piece from HuffPo on redistricting, which proposes that we’ll be in better shape in 2010 redistricting than 2000 redistricting because (based on projected gubernatorial and state legislative outcomes) we’ll have more control over the process in more important states: oddly he leaves out California, but also including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia (all states where there was a GOP trifecta last time), and Minnesota and New York (where we might get the trifecta this time)… while the states where the GOP will improve its position aren’t as large (Alabama, Indiana, Tennessee… with Georgia the most significant one). The article also gets into the nitty-gritty of where the population growth within the fast-growing states has occurred (i.e. among minorities).
• Polltopia: You might have noticed that Political Wire briefly had some Senate polls up today from somebody I’ve never heard of before, called “TCJ Research.” Those polls mysteriously vanished after Nate Silver, vanquisher of bogus pollsters, showed up on the scene with a simple tweet:
A WordPress blog getting ~500 hits a day on posts like “October Giveaway: 32 Gigabyte Apple iPad!” suddenly commissions 5 polls? Not likely.
• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: Two different ads from the DSCC attacking Mark Kirk, hitting him for his House voting record and also revisiting Kirk’s misrememberment of his military record
• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall’s finally out with a TV spot, going after Richard Burr for helping to break the economy
• WV-Sen: While John Raese nods to the ‘hick’ ad semi-apologetically before changing the subject back to Washington Dems, Joe Manchin seems to be trying to out-hick the hick ad by touting his pro-gun and anti-environment credentials in one fell swoop by (I kid you not) shooting a copy of the cap-and-trade bill
• IL-Gov: The most famous Illinoisian, Barack Obama, cuts a radio spot on behalf of Pat Quinn
• RI-Gov: The DGA pounds Lincoln Chafee one more time from the right, accusing him of being a tax-hiking hippy
• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the boring fixation on Allen West’s tax liens and onto the really juicy stuff about 2nd Amendment remedies
• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann on Social Security
• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper touts her pro-life credentials in her new ad, explaining her siding with the Stupak bloc on health care reform
• VA-02: The DCCC’s IE unit points the “hypocrite” arrow at Scott Rigell, for making hundreds of thousands of dollars off “Cash for Clunkers”
• WI-08: Ditto the DCCC ad in the 8th, where they hit Reid Ribble for making hundreds of thousands of dollars for his roofing business off stimulus projects
• Rasmussen:
• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 47%, Rick Scott (R) 50%
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 25%
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 50%
• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 38%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 53%
• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 15%
• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 24%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 66%
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%
• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 48%, Chris Dudley (R) 46%
• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%
• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 53%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%
• Angus-Reid: Some of you might have gotten excited about the California numbers offered up today by Angus-Reid (a well-established Canadian pollster, but apparently making their first foray into the States). Well, don’t, because they’re using an RV model, and more importantly, it’s an Internet sample. (Now presumably there’s some scientific selection behind it, not just a “click here!” banner ad, but we’re highly skeptical nonetheless, especially since that seemed to produce notably pro-Dem results in California.)
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 55%, Carly Fiorina (R) 39%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%, John Kasich (R) 48%
• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 53%
By attacking the only Jewish Republican in the House!
http://www.nationalreview.com/…
They say that Reid is more likely the one being underestimated and that the race is a statistical tie.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Also, their feed says that although Angle leads among indies by 8 (she led by 10 in July), Danny Tarkanian would have led 26 among indies and be doing better than Angle by 8.
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
Primary fail. The TPX chose the wrong candidate to boost, not that I’m complaining.
Just FYI, you got the numbers on the Rasmussen poll of CT-Gov mixed up; Malloy leads by five. Had a minor heart attack when I read that until I clicked through to the full report.
that Ras may be right about CT-GOV: Tom Foley has gone negative on TV in a big way in the last week.
New York: Honestly, even if we keep everything except for NY-29 and hold the trifecta, it’s going to be really hard to protect everyone upstate without getting crazy with NYC tentacles. Assuming we lose two or three upstate seats this year (NY-29, NY-19, and maybe NY-24 (polling aside, I’m still skeptical that Arcuri holds on)), it’s probably just going to be incumbent protection in upstate and trying to screw over Peter King in Long Island (although that alone would make it worthwhile for me). If we lose the senate, it’ll still be incumbent protection which favors us anyways.
California: Holding the trifecta in California is the biggest prize, even being cautious, it’s probably possible to knock off at least 3-4 Republicans, thanks to the bluing of California and creative district lines.
Georgia: I imagine we’ll get hammered here, but not too badly either, as I think the Republicans already nailed us mid-decade
Texas: Same as Georgia, with the caveat that the Hispanic growth is going to make it tricky for the Republicans to screw us too badly with the new seats.
Alabama: The worst they can do to us is try to eliminate Bobby Bright, and I have a sneaking suspicion that they’ll just wait him out.
Tennessee: It’s already going to be a bloodbath for us, they’ll probably shoot for a 7R-2D map for themselves (I suppose they could try for an 8R-1D map, but how feasible is that I wonder).
As soon as they went up, the right-wing trolls that love to come by here and there came out to brag and gloat, despite the fact that the polling “firm” had no previous history, was done by some 2-bit website, and was missing key data like MOE.
About bloody time.
dig in the DSCC anti-Kirk spot?
Check out the last screen. It reads:
“Mark Kirk. The Story Is Never Straight.”
16 and 12 in their turnout “scenarios.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-…
A couple of new ads from Arizona. First up if AZ-08, where Giffords continues her strategy of using Jesse Kelly’s bat-shit crazy words against him in this new ad on education.
This new ad from Harry Mitchell also hits opponent’s distaste for public education while triumphing his own support for the new GI bill. I’d like to see Harry Mitchell run a whole ad on the student loan issue instead of just mentioning it once in this ad as that could really help him with turning out the ASU vote. Overall though I think this ad is pretty effective.
Finally, this one is a bit down in the weeds, but I know SSPers appreciate info on down-ticket races. This is the first ad from Felecia Rotellini, the Democratic nominee for the must-hold AZ Attorney General race. Something else I know SSPers appreciate is Democrats who aren’t afraid to go straight for the jugular, which Rotellini certainly is not.
Susquehanna, 9/28-9/30. An internal from Gerlach, but reputable pollster.
Summit Consulting, a Republican pollster. Dates 10/4-10/5, LV’s.
Real race here?
Expanding on what commentators on SSP have already pointed out – that Meek is staying in the Senate race in part because Democrats don’t want him to drop out because of his positive effect on the Governor’s race and other down ballot races (even though no one thinks he has a chance in hell of winning.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
I never thought about the potential good effect on FL-25 as well as the governor’s race. This is making me feel much more positive about Meek staying in the race.
(Kos himself sounds resigned to this, but still disappointed Rubio will be the next Senator from Florida).
Don’t get the subtle criticism (I’ve seen it twice now). Attacking someone’s tax plan for being unfair to poor people isn’t really going at someone from the right. The stimulus plan including tax cuts for poorer people, which the Republicans largely opposed or were indifferent.
From my inbox:
I understand that they’re supposed to help Democrats no matter what, but it’s not like Chafee has a lot of money anyway and I personally wouldn’t care if he won. I’d rather them just use that money on ME, NH, VT, or CT.
that my local hole in the wall theatre is doing a production called “Michele! The Musical Bachumanntary”.
http://michelebachmannmusical….
AZ-GOV: Rocky Mountain Poll (10/1-10/10, “Most Likely Voters”)
Jan Brewer (R): 46%
Terry Goddard (D): 35%
Larry Gist (G): 2%
Barry Hess (L) 2%
(No MoE provided for “most likely voters”)
AZ-GOV: Rocky Mountain Poll (10/1-10/10, Registered Voters)
Jan Brewer (R): 38%
Terry Goddard (D): 35%
Larry Gist (G): 3%
Barry Hess (L) 3%
(MoE: ±4.2%)
The bad news for Goddard is that it’s getting a little late to read much into a registered voter model. The good news is that the other model isn’t just likely voters, but “Most Likely Voters.” They don’t say exactly what that means, but it suggests that it’s somewhat stricter scrutiny than what is usually applied to plain old “Likely Voter” screens. That might mean the topline numbers are more of a worst-case scenario for Goddard and the actual voter universe is somewhere in-between the two results. Also, the polling memo notes that the gap between the candidates closed over the polling period, suggesting that Goddard might have the momentum. It does seem that Goddard might be the candidate with more room to grow, as there are more undecided Dems than Reps, and there are for more undecided voters in rural Arizona than Pima or Maricopa Counties. Statewide Dems tend to perform somewhat better in rural AZ than presidential candidates do.
Unfortunately, I still think this race is closer to Lean R than Tossup, but I also think people have been too quick to write Goddard’s political obituary.
Full polling memo with some cross-tabs here. Eat your heart out, Ruthie Mac. It would be nice to see regional, racial and party breakdowns, though.
Where do you want to poll?
CA, IL, NH, OH, PA, and WA.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
God damn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
She already told us this would happen though. Its probably a mistake not to put it on TV also, with Rell’s popularity.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Don’t color me shocked if Giuliani endorses (another) Cuomo (again). (Unless he inexplicably wants to run for president in 2012.)
the Democrat I least want to win contest. Blanche Lincoln had the lead for a long tme, but Manchin wins by a mile. Go John Raese.
Can’t believe Nathan Deal’s performance.
http://www.southernpoliticalre…
I can’t embed it, but you can watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
http://twitter.com/Dave_Wasser…
Hmmm. His opponent has $–5,000 CoH, so IDK what it could be.
Tonight is the Ellsworth Coats showdown. I am not watching. Tomorrow is the Yarmuth Lally and next week another Conway Paul one. On an unrelated note I heard the Clinton rally went well. It got a lot of coverage on the local news anyway. I was not able to attend do to a fender bender on the way. Aw well I’ve seen the big dog and Conway before. More upset about my new car. I hate teen drivers. Anyway back to KY Sen, I am really interested in this race. I honestly think we could see an upset. Sure Paul may be slightly up but it is within the margin of error and there is still time for Conway to close a two to three point gap.
Not that anyone cares because the race is so uncompetitive, but Rick Snyder continues to hold a 20-point lead over Virg Bernero in Michigan’s gubernatorial race. What’s been amazing is the consistency of the polls since August.
Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Oct. 10 – EPIC/MRA)
Snyder: 49%
Bernero: 29%
Undecided: 18%
The only good news for Dems is that this poll was taken prior to the first and only gubernoatiral debate (Snyder has tried to avoid Bernero head-to-head like the plague hoping to coast without being tested). The bad news is that Bernero has to essentially win every remaining undecided and peel off some folks from Snyder to win, he’s only winning in Wayne County (Detroit), and folks under 30. Hell, Snyder is winning union voters (49-36). How any of this is happening is totally blowing my mind. This race should be much closer, because Virg is not that bad, and Snyder is not that good. The polls don’t accurately reflect the quality (or lack there of) of the two candidates.
Lincoln internal has her behind 7. Hooray! Come on Blanche, down 15, is not as bad as 25!
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
http://www.nola.com/politics/i…
The Democrats, New Orleans City Councilwoman Stacey Head and Assessor Erroll Williams, are both very popular and well known. Head is very popular among Republicans and white Dems (she represents a heavily African American district, and ran for re-election without major opposition in February, despite an attempted recall last year by black ministers since she was white). Erroll Williams was elected Assessor in February, by the whole parish, after his run-off opponent dropped out, and he has popularity among the black community. I would not be surprised to see both of them, especially Williams, in a TV ad soon for Cao.
Let’s hope this dents Sandoval’s support somewhat.
VIA TPM:
I can’t find the survey itself, just this article that seems to have just come across the wires.
http://www.businessweek.com/ne…
http://www.fox8.com/news/sns-a…
He’s cutting broadcast TV ads, but leaving up cable and radio ads.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…
was HORRIBLE at the debate. I admit I ended up watching it online despite what I said. Good Lord the man really effed up. This is how radio show host Gary Snyder described it (from an Ellsworth email).