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FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink, Rubio Build Leads

by: James L.

Sun Sep 26, 2010 at 8:21 PM EDT


Mason-Dixon (9/20-22, likely voters, no trend lines):

Alex Sink (D): 47
Rick Scott (R): 40
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4%)

Mason-Dixon actually has polled this race before, but I left out the trend lines due to Bud Chiles' presence in their August poll. In that one, Sink led Scott by 40-26, with 17% going to Bud. Before that, all the way back in May, Sink had a 38-36 lead on Scott.

The Senate numbers yield much better results for Republicans (8/9-11 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (18)
Marco Rubio (R): 40 (38)
Charlie Crist (I): 28 (33)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)

This is starting to look like an impossible needle for Charlie Crist to thread. Witness the roll out of Charlie Crist 9.0:

The new boiled down platform for an independent Crist? "Tax cuts? Hell yes," Crist said. "Government in your bedroom? Hell no."

Incoherency? Hell yes!
James L. :: FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink, Rubio Build Leads
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FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink, Rubio Build Leads | 52 comments
Interestingly enough...
The Crist+Meek "Anti-Rubio" bloc is still at 51%... But now, Meek is consolidating the Dem base and eating away at what was Crist's fragile electoral balance. In the mean time, Rubio is consolidating the GOP base and more Indies are either picking the Reep or the Dem. Perhaps Crist really is fading...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
My only hope for Christ at this point is to tack to the right
and maybe, MAYBE act as a spoiler for Meek, even though this is very unlikely to happen

I'm liking those Gov numbers though.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Oops, flip those two names
My only hope for Meek is for Christ to act as a spoiler.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
christ spoilers nothing
and saves all.  praise be the lord.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
.... God damn it


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Actually, Christ is running for Senate!
http://www.christforsenate.com/

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Of course, this occurs in the bible belt
Color me surprised.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
And of course...
Christ is a Democrat, as everyone knew he would be all along!
[ Parent ]
What would scenario do you envision?
Meek and Rubio would essentially be tied in the results, with Crist in third.

It would be delicious revenge for Bush v. Gore.

Meek 38
Rubio 37
Crist 25

Meek would have to consolidate all Dems and grab significant chunks of disaffected Republicans and Independents (all the undecideds?).

(The only problem with this thinking, though, is that Rubio is not significantly tea-baggerish to justify "disaffection" from Republicans.)

[ Parent ]
I just finished filling out my ballot yesterday.
Voted for Crist in the senate race right before the Meek surge, unlucky from a political junky prospective but I didn't see that coming at all as I expected Meek would fade as Crist would dig into him for Democrats with a message of its either me or the teabagger heh. Still at the end of the day I would pick Crist over Meek by a hair with all things considered. I just don't like the way Meek got his house seat and hes run an incredibly weak campaign. I also have some respect for Crist for appointing some moderates to the Florida surpreme court and for the felon voting change as well as not bowing to the GOPers on that crappy education bill. I think Meek would be a good senator but I just don't see him acting like hes running for the US senate and the nepotism is annoying. But if either one wins i'll be happy though I expect Rubio will  win simply because Crist and Meek are sharing the same pile of votes ranging from Liberal Democrat to Moderate Republican.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I don't know if that could work...
Crist already p**sed off GOPers by bolting the party and running as an Indie. He's probably already burned bridges with the 75% of Reeps backing Rubio. I'm now starting to wonder what Crist can do to stave off a total fade. And unless both Rubio AND Crist are caught in some horrifying scandal, I have a really hard time seeing Meek win this.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Of course, Ras to the rescue
of Republicans with his: Scott 50% Sink 44%.
That's just Razzy being Razzy...
Clearly, they're the outliers (yet again). I'd have so much more respect for them if Scotty R didn't engage in such crap.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Probably an outlier
Seeing as nobody else has had Scott in the lead in quite some time.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
The
attack on Ras in interesting considering that he shows higher Obama approval than anyone else right now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Deleted a comment here
That completely violated the guidelines. Consider this a stern warning. One more outburst like that and the person who left that comment is gone.
[ Parent ]
wow
I guess this was a nasty response to me and I missed it.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
To satisfy your curiosity
it was basically telling you to take your act to RedState.  Speaking for myself, I think you're a very positive contributor here.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
OK, I apologize. I was over the top and I am sorry. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I think Ras
is by and large producing more positive results for Dems than Quinnipiac, Survey USA, and PPP since those three switched to likely voters.

But the FL-GOV poll showing Scott up is an outlier until corroborated.  It's also not consistent with the way the campaigns are behaving right now, with Scott going hard negative and Sink taking the high road.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
As I've said before...
SUSA is just plain screwy, so I don't even take them seriously any more.

PPP has never really had a strong Dem house effect in its polls, and sometimes even the best pollsters occasionally produce outliers.

And Quinnipiac? Frankly, I have no clue what's going on there.

All in all, Razzy is actually a fairly decent pollster. They just have a GOP house effect, and sometimes their business practices and their founder's political activities cause me to wonder what's going on there. And as I said about PPP, Razzy is also quite capable of producing outliers... And perhaps I overreacted at first, maybe this is just an outlier.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Crist
Where he failed was keeping some level of GOP support.  When he left the GOP he seemed to move pretty far to the left.  Maybe he was betting Greene would be the Dem nominee and Crist would eventually take his place.  

Also, why did Crist think he had to be in the Senate this year?  He is not that old.  He would have been better off waiting to run again some other time.   Now his career is finished.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

He should choose to caucus with GOP...
I think the fact that most believe he's going to caucus with Dems is what bottomed out his GOP support.

I think Dems would still hold their nose and support Crist, vote strategically to keep Rubio out of the senate.  

[ Parent ]
I seriously doubt that
My impression is that Democrats - and, indeed, many other Floridians - just don't trust that Crist has any core political values, and think he could vote any which way. I was in favor of voting for Crist until his double flip-flop on Health Care Reform. Now, I think it's quite reasonable for people to vote for Meek, at least knowing where he stands.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
So are you saying...
That Crist should wait until he's Rubio's age to run for senate?

Trying to understand your logic...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I am
saying Crist should have waited and run for the Senate as a Republican another time.  Now he will find it hard to run for anything ever again and he never had much of a chance this year.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
coulda woulda shoulda
Crist would have the same outcome if he had waited until 2012 to run.  In 2010, it's Rubio...should he have waited for 2012, it would have been someone else.  Crist's conservative credentials are simply not acceptable by the right-wing of the GOP.  Waiting until 2012 would have simply delayed his defeat.

Anyway, I think this is the ultimate second guess.  When Martinez announced he wasn't going to run for a second term, almost everyone thought that this was an excellent opportunity for Crist should he decide to run.  He did, but unfortunately for Crist, the right wing had their own candidate in Rubio.    

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
If 2012 is less of a Republican year
he would have a chance.  Crist was doing well in this race until it was clear that 2010 would be a big republican year.  
[ Parent ]
unless jeb wants to run
I hear he wants to redeem the family name, but is waiting for the right time.  crist probably figured that by 2012 jeb would be running and there's no way he'd be able to nomination, or even try for it without being ostracized like he is experiencing now.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I haven't heard this...
but this doesn't surprise me.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Hindsight being 20/20, then yes...
but this is still the ultimate second guess.  Crist appeared to be a great candidate in 2010 for the fact that he could attract Democratic and Independent voters.  Unfortunately, he had no idea that his party would drift as far right as it did in the last 12 months.  He had no idea that Rubio would be the one that would win the primary going away.  At one time Crist was way ahead of Rubio in the primary polls.  Slowly but surely, that advantage was chipped away by Rubio.  Even if he had waited to run in 2012, there is still that perception that Crist is supportive of Obama.  Sure, the GOP might moderate it's politics in a couple of years, but we can't tell at this time.  Too many factors, too long of a time...  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
has nothing to do with it being a Republican year
Energy in a GE (which is what gives years monikers like a GOP year or a Dem year) can have nothing to do with the results of a primary election.  I have no idea how FL does primaries but 2012 could be so bad that Obama loses yet Charlie Crist wins a GOP primary because the primary election will bring out more mainstream Republicans who want to vote in the primary and would also find Crist a good, moderate GOPer to send to Congress.

Just to nit-pick   ;)

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
He should have waited for the 2012 race after it was certain that he would lose this year.  Now his career is finished, and probably Jeb Bush will run in 2012.
[ Parent ]
Jeb and Crist are enemies
Jeb could have just ran and beat him out of spite in 2012 anyway.
[ Parent ]
Definately entering silly conspiracy theory mode but its fun to contemplate
Crist having Greene as a Democratic plant. It sounds like a good plot for a B list political movie who would'nt love an excentric crazy billionare protagonist.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Meek can't win.
He's too progressive for Florida moderates, centrists and whatever Republicans Crist is still carrying.  If Crist were to drop out, the majority from that group would probably go to Rubio who has been allowed to frame himself as a main stream Republican.  

The only chance to keep Rubio out of the Senate would be Meek dropping out, and that looks not very likely.  

If I was advising Crist I'd have him endorse Alex Sink for Governor and announce that he'd caucus with the GOP on the same day, preferably at the same presser.

I think Crist lost any foothold with Republicans because they think he's surely to caucus with Democrats. Have him announce his preference is to caucus with Republicans and then see how the GOP reacts - would the flatly turn him down? If they did then they would be seen as leaving Crist, not the other way around.  Also to counteract this move to the right, endorsing Sink I think would be a great move.  Now of course she couldn't return the endorsement as she'd endorse Meek, but most folks believe Sink is the better candidate than Scott so it would show Crist putting Florida first and would put Rubio on the spot as to whether he'd endorse Scott or not.  

Bad strategy, Crist would tank completely if he promised to...
...caucus with the GOP.

Republicans already are committed to Rubio, Crist can't grow anymore with those voters.  He's still getting the 20-25% of GOPers as when he had the lead, that hasn't dropped; what he's lost recently are indies and Dems to Meek.  There's no growth potential for Crist with Republicans.

Meanwhile, promising to caucus with the GOP kills off Crist with Dems and Dem-leaning indies.

But you know what?......I'm all for that, because it actually gives Meek a chance.  It allows Crist to secure the 20-25% of Repubs he still has, and knocks him down among all Dems and Dem leaners.  It still would be a longshot for Meek, but it potentially creates a path to victory.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What would the final numbers be?
High 30's tie for Rubio and Meek and mid-20's for Crist?
[ Parent ]
In the scenario discussed, I think Crist needs to drop into the teens and just might do that......
Unfortunately for Meek I think Rubio ends up above 40 no matter what.  That means Meek must do the same, which requires Crist tanking into the teens with all his remaining support coming from Republicans and conservative-leaning or otherwise anti-Dem indies.

Meek needs ALL Dems and Dem-leaning indies to break his way to break 40.  That's a very tall order.

It's a big longshot, but there are 2 reasons I hold out any hope at all.

First, Crist just isn't running a good campaign; he needs to focus like a laser beam on Rubio and hammer him incessently and take his chances that Meek remains without a path to victory.  But instead his latest ad tries to attack both in one ad, and it's awkward and doesn't work.  His attack ad on Rubio alone was good, but he needs to just hammer Rubio not just in TV ads but on the stump and through whatever surrogates he has.  That he's not doing that is self-defeating.

Second, this has been such a weird election that I no longer have confidence that we won't see big unexpected swings in a lot of races toward the end.  Unfortunately, the odds are those swings go against us in most cases.  But if we hold steady, our candidates run good campaigns, there is no new unexpected bad news event nationally, and Dems from D.C. down to the state and local levels are able to impress voters that Republicans are too extreme, then some of the swings could go our way.  This is one of those where it somehow could happen, that Crist's support evaporates further toward the end.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Interesting, thanks.
I'm beginning to think that Crist being in the race actually may help Meek.

[ Parent ]
The early polling, when Crist as indy was just speculation, actually showed it DID help Meek......
Meek was losing to Rubio one-on-one in trial heat polling, but the first polls that showed a 3-way with Crist as an indy showed Meek pulling close to even or, in one or two cases, pulling ahead.

It would be a stunning 360 if we ended up with a Meek surge at the end that put us right back there.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I remember this completely the other way
Every poll with just Rubio and Meek showed it within the margin of error while a three-way race showed exactly what the polls were showing up until a few weeks ago, Meek with 17% and Crist with varying degrees of leads against Rubio.

Time to check Pollster...

Drum roll.........  You're right with the initial polling, I'm right with where it trended.  And the poll that happened the week before Crist announced his switch was 32/30/24 Crist/Rubio/Meek.  Hmmm, I definitely didnt remember Meek being so close to striking distance.

And look, Meek was getting 24% while Crist still being in the lead.  It's clear that he really over-did it with the Dem gang.

[ Parent ]
Rubio
Is he not a mainstream Republican, considering what that means in 2010?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
My currrent numbers...
GOP - 38%
Democrat - 34%
Independent - 28%

Crist - 17/40/43 = 32%
Rubio - 83/7/40 = 45%
Meek - 0/53/17 = 23%

Crist - 17/90/57 = 53%
Rubio - 83/10/43 = 47%

Rubio - 95/17/60 = 59%
Meek - 5/83/40 = 41%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Your Senate projections
Look pretty damn accurate at this point.  Good job.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Interesting...
But I still think Meek has nowhere to go but up!
[ Parent ]
Meek
Meek would not be Rubio one-on-one.  His only path to victory is if Crist takes more GOP votes than Dems and the bulk of the independents.  Seems unlikely as Crist gambled on Greene getting the nomination and when that didn't happen, he was shot.  I see no path to victory for Crist, now, and only a slim one for Meek.  Rubio will be the next Senator from FL.

The gov race is interesting - do the moderates and independents who vote for Crist vote for Sink or Scott?  I tend to think that Sink is in a better position to get their votes, but it's going to be close.  Rubio is going to bring out a lot of excited GOP voters and that's going to help Scott.  Frankly, I'd put it at a coin toss.  I think this is going to be a good year for the GOP in FL - I'm seeing three house pickups, but if they lose the gov race, it's sort of a Pyrrhic victory.  Then again, I'm opposed to partisan gerrymandering, so I'm not all that upset at the idea of the redistricting having both sides with a say, I just wish they wouldn't create a bunch of 'safe' seats for each side and make them more evenly split so more moderates get elected and not just partisans on both sides.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Crist never gambled on Greene, Greene didn't exist yet when Crist flipped to indy......
Crist gambled he could thread the needle between Rubio and Meek, and Greene showed up later to contest the Dem nomination.  It would have been a great gift to Crist had Greene won the primary, but it proved the opposite:  Greene allowed Meek to win sympathy and support for November from Dems and Dem-leaning indies.  So Greene ended up more curse than gift.  I bet had Greene never run, Meek would still be struggling more now than he is; I think the primary really did help him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Polling shows Meek competitive with just Rubio
http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

Hell, it was even trending more competitively with the last poll showing Meek only down by 4%!

[ Parent ]
Too bad about Crist,
but Sink is a nice consolation prize; if nothing else, it gives us an "in" in Florida next redistricting.
Which is worth 4-5 House seats at least
I'll gladly take that over a Senate seat we were likely going to lose anyway.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Nope
FL Gov cant veto redistricting bills.  The state legislature does them all themselves.  And the state legislature is so fucking gerrymandered we may not retake it for who knows when.

Was legislation passed to not allow this veto passed during the Jeb Bush years?  It'd be pretty fucking genius if they planned that all out once they got power.

[ Parent ]
FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink, Rubio Build Leads | 52 comments

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