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CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet in Trouble, Hickenlooper in Command

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 10:01 AM EDT


Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (9/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42
Ken Buck (R): 50
Undecided: 6

John Hickenlooper (D): 48
Dan Maes (R): 19
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.5%)

These McClatchy polls are part of a package which generally show sucky numbers for Dems. (We'll bring you the PA & WI portions separately.) The enthusiasm gap is palpable. Among registered voters, Bennet noses Buck, 41-40. The same pattern holds true in the gubernatorial race, which is a 48-15-25 contest among RVs. That is to say, Republicans do about ten points better among LVs.

We're breaking Colorado out from the rest of the McClatchy pile because another pollster also has fresh nums from the Rockies.

SurveyUSA (CO-Sen, CO-Gov) for the Denver Post/9News (9/28-30, likely voters, 7/27-29 (RVs) in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43 (43)
Ken Buck (R): 48 (43)
Undecided: 1 (7)

John Hickenlooper (D): 46 (46)
Dan Maes (R): 15 (24)
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 34 (24)
Undecided: 2 (7)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

More sucky numbers for Bennet. Since we only have Denver Post links, we don't have access to the full cross-tabs yet. But the Post indicates that SUSA is still SUSA, noting: "Voters younger than 50 strongly prefer Buck, at 52 percent to 38 percent, while over-50 voters have a slight preference for Bennet."

SurveyUSA also shows that Tom Tancredo's strategy of trying to marginalize Dan Maes as unelectable may be paying dividends. The problem for the Tanc, though, is that it's pretty darn hard to drive a guy down past Alan Gold Schlesinger levels if he's got a major party label next to his name and says he won't drop out. Maes has been... well, I guess you could call it tenacious if you were feeling just-won-the-lottery generous and doesn't look like a guy read to call it quits. (He even allegedly has a TV ad. Then again, supposedly Stacey Tallitsch did, too.)

There's still time for Maes to bail, though, and if Tancredo absorbed the vast majority of those votes, Hickenlooper would have a serious race on his hands. An irony, then: Michael Bennet probably wishes he had more time, but for Hick, November can't come soon enough.

P.S. Tom Jensen teases: "We polled CO Gov, CO Sen, CT Sen, CT Gov, Both NY-Sen, and NY-Gov this weekend. Only 1 of them in single digits."

DavidNYC :: CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet in Trouble, Hickenlooper in Command
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PPP
I'm starting to wonder if PPP's single digit race isn't CO-Gov.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

I'm quite confident it's not. It's going to be CO-Sen. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
Buck's lead has been growing over the last series of polls. I wouldn't be surprised to see him +10 or more if PPP got a very GOP-friendly sample. Most likely it'll be CT-Sen.

[ Parent ]
No his lead has NOT been growing, get your facts straight......
The September polling in CO-Sen was the same as previous, with most polls showing Buck up 4 or 5, and this Marist poll and Rasmussen each showing an 8-point margin a couple weeks apart.

CO-Sen hasn't changed at all, Buck's lead has NOT been growing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
.
... going from a september average of 4 to 5 points to an early october average (so far) of 8-ish points seems like growth to me.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
You're making shit up. There is NO "October average of 8-ish points"......
There has been no polling in October, at least none released yet, today is only the 4th.

The September polling showed Buck's margins as follows in chronological order:  4; 5; 4; 8; 8; 5.  Two of those were Rasmussen.

The race is stagnant, some people here really don't understand how to read polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Current RCP average = Buck + 6.5
The average of the previous 4 polls (excluding Rasmussen multiples) is Buck + 1.5.

Including Rasmussen's multiples, it's Buck +3.5.

Average of all polls in the field in September is Buck +5.666

Average of all polls in the field in August is Buck +2.4

Buck's lead IS growing. The race is not stagnant. I don't like to be called an idiot by someone who's wrong. Try to be more charitable.


[ Parent ]
No, the lead is NOT growing, you're NOT reading polling correctly......
That kind of averaging is not valid.  The sample of polls is too small to average them like that, and just one or two outliers throw off an average, sometimes badly.  Even further undermining averaging is that only Rasmussen has polled the race more than once in the 2-month period you discuss.

What's valid with a set of polls this small is to look at a list of polls in chronological order and see if there's any real trend there.

Here are the margins in chronological order for August AND September, with Bennet leads identified as such and otherwise the number is for the Buck margin:

Bennet+3; 5; 9; 4; Bennet+3; 4; 5; 4; 8; 8; 5.

If you throw in July, too, Buck had leads of 9 and 6, both by Rasmussen, followed by a tie in a SUSA poll.  Again, no trend.

There is no trend there, just oscillation that amounts to statistical noise, with a few outliers in either direction.

You're not going to get away with manufacturing a false narrative on a site like this one.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Actually you're wrong.
If I run the polling data for COSen through a Kalman Filter, it shows a Buck surge within the last month, with a fairly stable race before that.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
If you're serious rather than joking, prove it. Some of these polls don't even have turnout models or crosstabs published......
The recent Marist poll came only from an article that reported toplines.

Only Rasmussen has polled the race multiple times over the last 2 months.

And I already established the polling margins have simply bounced around, no trend.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
What do you mean with 'prove it'?
I have a database of polls and ran it through a smoother. Don't you believe me that I did that or what do you mean? Do you want the output? I mean, I didn't save it, but I could redo it.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
I'm not trying to "get away" with anything, much less "manufacturing a narrative"
I don't come here, as you seem to think, so that I can troll you guys and maintain that Republicans are going to score HUGE wins in every race. If I wanted to do that, I'd pose as a Democrat and be a concern troll. But I'm not, because I like this site, and I enjoy analyzing the elements of the country's most competitive campaigns and elections. Same as the rest of the site's members, I expect.

I offered a numbers-based analysis of the race. If you want to define your own method and claim that it's superior, fine. But I think it's clear based on pretty standard practice that Buck is enjoying a small surge at present. You don't need to immediately rage at people or impugn their motives when they disagree with you


[ Parent ]
PPP out today says Blumenthal +12 over whacko lady
With their first debate scheduled for tonight, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut shows Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) in the U.S. Senate race by 12 points, 53% to 41%.

Blumenthal's favorability rating is 53/39, while McMahon's is the opposite, 39/59.

The only Republican Senate candidates with worse favorability numbers than McMahon were Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Christine O'Donnell.  


[ Parent ]
I'll wait for PPP...
Before even considering giving up on CO-Sen... Which, btw, is probably the race they found within single digits.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


I dunno, I have my doubts Tancredo can go anywhere w/ Maes on the ballot
I do think Hickenlooper will perform under 50, but unless the hardcore rank-and-file GOP holds its nose and bolts for Tancredo, I imagine Maes' presence will hold Tancredo back. For what it's worth, I have this pegged at...

Independent - 36%
GOP - 34%
Democrat - 30%

Hickenlooper - 47/7/90 = 46%
Maes - 13/27/3 = 15%
Tancredo - 40/66/7 = 39%

Now, just for interest's sake, let's imagine Maes were off the ballot...

Hickenlooper - 53/13/93 = 51%
Tancredo - 47/87/7 = 49%

Now, this would be a fascinating race, but really, in the end, Tancredo's probably too loopy to win in even the most GOP-friendly cycle. It's like Dennis Kuninich running for Ohio U.S. Senate in a Dem-friendly cycle.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Um, no, Tancredo would not be that competitive one-on-one......
Tancredo is a strongly disliked figure and would not stay close one-on-one with Hick.

It's a big mistake to look at the 3-way numbers and just assume Tancredo would take almost all of Maes' support.  That's not really true.

I saw one one-on-one poll done a few weeks ago that showed if Tancredo dropped out, Hick would beat Maes 51-37 with about 10% undecided.  I'm pretty confident a one-on-one vs. Tancredo wouldn't be much worse than that for Hick.  Hick would beat either of these guys by double-digits one-on-one even in as bad a year as this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
.
Obama should have never appointed Ken Salazar to Interior... we would not be in this situation had he been the Dem nominee in CO-Sen.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

Salazar's
approval ratings were lukewarm at best anyway. Also he barely won in 2004. I've been surprised this cycle how the NRSC was able to find some self funding millionaire to run in states like Wisconsin. Salazar would of most likely had a race on his hands this year.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
.
Oh agreed. He could have very well lost, too.

However, the chances of that would be even. Whereas with Bennet (a complete unknown before appointment) we are running behind and the chances are not even that we'll hold the seat.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Also, Salazar may not have been as reliable a vote
... remember that Salazar was one of the most conservative Democrats in the caucus. Would he have been fully on board for HCR, for example?  

[ Parent ]
He bucked the tide in 2004
That was a positive not a negative. No doubt he would have a competitive race but I'd peg it in a similar place to Washington. His race would have made the ticket with Hickenlooper very strong.

[ Parent ]
I was just wondering
how much better/worse off we would be with Salazar. I don't think he's been a particularly good Interior Secretary, so I wish Obama would have left him alone.

I also think appointing Bennet was a big mistake.


[ Parent ]
I actually think the Bennet appointment was a smart one and perhaps our best shot......
The thing about Bennet is, he was an outsider.  That was controversial at the time, because so many establishment Dems known to have electoral ambition and who had been elected to something before were waiting in the wings.  But in hindsight, those people would be struggling right now because they're clearly Democratic insiders.  Everyone is excited Hickenlooper is cruising to the Governorship, but he was clearly losing before McInnis imploded, and I bet anything he'd be losing to Buck now as an appointed incumbent.  Same goes for Romanoff, and actually I bet he'd be down double-digits right now.  Same for everyone else.  To be a "Democrat" and an "insider" is the worst combo this time.  That's just how the ball bounces, we're going to take lumps, and that's where the voters' fire is most sharply directed.

At least Bennet was an unknown, and that's selling kinda well now.  We're seeing it for example in NH Congressional races, where Shea-Porter appears down as an incumbent and yet our insurgent lefy, Annie Kuster, is surging and pulling quickly into a draw with former incumbent and establishment insider Charlie Bass.

The only possible better alternative to Bennet, I think, would have been a placeholder who wouldn't run, but that, too, might have turned out badly because the competitive primary likely would have nominated an establishment insider for a Democratic nominee.

It's very possible we're going to lose this seat no matter what, that we're victims of Bush's recession in this one.  That's not fair.  But so what?...life isn't fair.

It's a mistake to always play the counterfactual game and assume a bad situation would've been better had we done something differently.  It's fair to dig into that, but it's a mistake to just assume something else would have made it better.  That's just not always the case.  It wasn't the case in VA-Gov last year, and I don't think it's the case in CO-Sen this year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
It had better be Co-Sen
My guess It's either CO Sen or CT Sen.  

My prediction

CO:
Hickenlooper +14-16
Buck +3-6

IN CT
Malloy +11-13
Blumenthal +10-12

IN NY
Gillibrand +13-15
Cuomo +17-19

Just my guess


Contrarian
CO:
Buck: +10-11
Hickenlooper: +15-17

CT:
Malloy: +10-15
Blumenthal: +5-8

NY:
Gillibrand: +10-15
Schumer: +24-28
Cuomo: +20-22

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
more contrarian
buck 10-11
blumiere 10-13
malloy 5-6.

Pollster.com has shown fedele moving up at a trajectory similar to malloy's during the primary where he upended lamont.  Plus, here in CT I haven't heard much from malloy, but every other poli ad is about how malloy's town lost 13000 jobs when he was in office (misleading yes, but possibly effective).  Whether this will result in a close win or loss remains to be seen ofc.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
Foley, not Fedele n/t


[ Parent ]
right, my bad
thanks

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Jensen's teasing is getting really old fast
Just release the damn polls.

it works though
he has our attention and that's what matters

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
And what's he got with North Carolina?
He seems to love to poll that state in excrutiating detail.

[ Parent ]
PPP is based out of North Carolina n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
.
Argh! Beat me to it.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
.
North Carolina is where they are based.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
CO-Gov
Rasmussen has Hickenlooper up 43-35-16. So a majority of Coloradans want a psycho for Governor.

Wait for PPP
SurveyUSA and Marist show nothing of the sort and Rasmussen's FOX poll was just a 10 point margin taken on a date right between those and the CNN +18.

[ Parent ]
And in this one, as usual Rasmussen doesn't get valid samples of people of color......
This poll has Hick winning white voters 41-37-16, little different from the topline of 43-35-16.  The white subsample is 86% of the 750-respondent total, or 645 white voters--a big enough subsample to be statistically relevant.

That means there's a very good chance Rasmussen got bad samples of non-white voters.  They show Tancredo getting 23% of black voters and 25% of "other," which in CO means mostly Hispanics.  This for a guy whose claim to fame is his racism and xenophobia.  That's not going to happen.

Here's another interesting way to analyze this:  Rasmussen uses a turnout model here that's very close to what the 2004 exit poll showed for actual turnout that year, with an electorate that was 86% white and 38% Republican.  That exit poll showed Salazar winning the election 51-47 and losing the white vote 51-46.  Apply the same 5-point adjustment to Hick now where you take his white vote percentage and add 5 points, and he's sitting on 46%, the same as several other polls.  That's rudimentary, but it's a topline I bet is closer to reality than what Rasmussen says.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Tank
Does Tancredo have any money?  I just can't belive that he'll get enough crossover support to win, but with him looking semi-viable, I can imagine enough anti-immigration people starting to send him $.  Were it not for the fact that they'd become a minor party, I could almost see the state GOP supporting him, even though there's no love lost, to say the least.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
McMahon goes where we knew she would
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Yep, she is behind. But time for Blumenthal and the DSCC to unleash the forces of hell. This is the part where I regret every WWE PPV I ever purchased.


I'm shocked!
Well, not really. I'm sure Bret Baier has his talking points ready to follow up on this in the debate.

[ Parent ]
Is he the moderator?
Sheesh. Who in their right mind agreed to that!?

[ Parent ]
Literally shaking my head


[ Parent ]
I refuse to call him Richard
Dumb, dumb, dumb. Had he not started out with an 80% approval rating, this Senate seat would be gone too.

[ Parent ]
At least people already know this stuff
If it was just breaking with these ads I might be inclined to agree. Thank goodness she isn't very likeable herself.

[ Parent ]
Yup, I remember how happy we all were that the Vietnam stuff came out way back in the spring......
It was important that it all came out back then, and got plenty of publicity.

As a result, McMahon will get minimal traction from her ad now.

But it's still a good ad, I won't say it can't work at all if combined with other things.  The key is whether she's got anything else that she can claim Blumenthal "lied" about.  If not, not much legs with this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
McMahon's biggest mistake way back when was gloating about...
leaking it to the Times. Any attacks against Blumenthal along these lines are blunted substantially by that.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Stupid is as stupid does
It will be like that debate on the Simpsons between Sideshow Bob and Quimby, when the show spoofed Faux.

When will Democrats learn and totally boycott Faux?  I guess when they ever grow a spine.


[ Parent ]
never
Very very few politicians will boycott any free media attention, especially on the one that gets millions of eyeballs every night.

I think it was actually Krusty (R) vs. Some Dude (D) in the spoof you're referencing.  I might be mistaken, but I don't think Fox News existed for J. Quimby/B. Terwilliger.  I could look it up, but that's not as fun.


[ Parent ]
I think he's talking about when the had the Rush Limbaugh clone doing it
That was one of my favorite episodes, the debate was hilarious!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Blumenthal up 12
in the PPP poll. 53 - 41.

Good internals too - McMahon's favorability is only 39%.

WA-07, 34 years old


PPP: LA-02
Richmond 49, Cao 38

It's on DKs front page


[ Parent ]
BTW, I see we're getting off-track because...
...this is the Colorado diary, not the digest, which I forgot myself until I noticed just a moment ago!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sorry
I meant to post this in the Daily Digest. It's there now.

[ Parent ]
Thanks. Internals show this one's a done deal......
The turnout model is pretty Republican-friendly at just 51% black and 41% white, and liberals just 20% of the sample.  

And still Richmond is up by 11 with room to grow.

Put a fork in it, this one's done.  Richmond will end up winning by about 20.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]

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