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CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Poll Roundup (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plagiarism)

by: James L.

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 12:19 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for the Denver Post/KUSA-TV (7/27-29, likely and actual voters for the primary, registered voters for the general, 6/15-17 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 45 (53)
Andrew Romanoff (D): 48 (36)
Undecided: 8 (11)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Ken Buck (R): 50 (53)
Jane Norton (R): 41 (37)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43 (43)
Ken Buck (R): 43 (46)
"Third Party": 7 (6)
Undecided: 7 (5)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (44)
Jane Norton (R): 43 (47)
"Third Party": 7 (5)
Undecided: 5 (4)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 44 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 44 (49)
"Third Party": 6 (6)
Undecided: 6 (5)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (41)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (45)
"Third Party": 8 (8)
Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Yup, shit just got real for Michael Bennet. After dwarfing Andrew Romanoff in terms of both polls and fundraising for months, Bennet's support has taken a major hit from the stream of negative ads that Romanoff has launched in recent days. I suppose it shouldn't be surprising, considering that voters have no fealty to an incumbent appointed by an unpopular departing Governor who's still struggling to project himself as more Senatorial than Some Dude, but it's still remarkable, nonetheless.

Perhaps most disturbing for Michael Bennet is that his pushback against this poll, in the form of his own internal poll, was less than forceful. Bennet's poll, conducted by Harstad Strategic Research from 7/28-29, has Romanoff trailing by only 41-37. Yikes!

Gubernatorial numbers:

Scott McInnis (R): 39 (57)
Dan Maes (R): 43 (29)
Undecided: 18 (14)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

John Hickenlooper (D): 48 (43)
Scott McInnis (R): 43 (47)
Undecided: 9 (4)

John Hickenlooper (D): 50 (44)
Dan Maes (R): 41 (45)
Undecided: 9 (6)

John Hickenlooper (D): 46
Dan Maes (R): 24
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 24
Undecided: 7

John Hickenlooper (D): 44
Scott McInnis (R): 25
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 26
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Is John Hickenlooper the luckiest candidate this cycle, or what? For what it's worth, a Republican poll of otherwise unknown origin, flashed to Chris Cillizza, apparently has McInnis ahead of the unknown, poorly-funded Dan Maes by 15% -- and Jane Norton ahead of Ken Buck by 45-40 in the Senate primary.
James L. :: CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Poll Roundup (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plagiarism)
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CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Poll Roundup (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plagiarism) | 21 comments
People like Tancredo
(and there are people just like him in all parties) are fascinating political specimens, because they'd rather torpedo their own party's chances just to make a point than win under what they perceive to be less than ideal conditions.  Because there's no way Tancredo thinks he's going to accomplish anything other than that.  It's virtually impossible for anyone other than Hickenlooper to win under this setup.
Good gov, bad Sen
You are right that Hick is the luckiest sob that side of the Mississipi, even luckier than Reid in NV. This CO-Gov implosion was totally unexpected and he just got a lift even money could not buy.

However, I am not optimistic about the Senate regardless of whether Romanoff or Bennet are the nominees. Ken Buck is probably easier to beat than Norton but both are lackluster candidates but our bench is swimming against a tough tide. I'd say CO appears to have reverted to its GOP lean for this election cycle and they, as most swing states, are willing to seperate local races from national ones.

Whatever the Obama 2008 voters in the burbs around Denver felt in Nov 2008, they either have serious buyer's remorse or are AWOL. I'm not even sure money advantage will help either Dem (assuming there even is one), but CO is not that expensive a state.

Shame that it came to this, but this was one of several clusterfuck Senate appointments by this WH that really didn't have to happen this way.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

"Lackluster" Or Not
I'd think Romanoff would come out of this with people having new respect for his chances in November if he pulls this off. To start so late, to come over such a warchest, I bet a lot talking heads will be impressed with him. And that might lead to the prioritization of this race, and how it's viewed overall, going up a few notches.
[ Parent ]
Hmm. Like Sestak? nt

[ Parent ]
I like this thought
It wouldn't surprise me if Romanoff were the better nominee.  He seems "hungry", whereas Bennet does not.
[ Parent ]
Trust me there not havig buyers remorse
I believe there AWOL and I don't blame the WH for this happening. It's not there fault Bennet is having trouble on both sides although with the polls it's not that bad.

And yes Hick is the luckiest SOB this cycle, he wins that easily.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
The wWH didn't appoint Bennet
I don't even remember his name being that high of the lsit for potential appointees after Salazar went to the Cabinet.

Blame the Guv, not thw WH.  If Romanoff were the incumbent, I don't think there would be a primary wasting money and I think he'd be in a better position.

[ Parent ]
Bennet
needs to go completely nuclear on Romanoff like Romanoff is doing to him if he wants to win this thing. Talk about how he is an outsider while Romanoff is a career politician and talk about his progressive achievements in the Senate and his Obama endorsement. I think it is looking like a Romanoff win for now, especially since Bennet released a poll showing him up only four but I said the same thing about Halter so I still have hope. Bennet can still turn this around and I hope he will.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Like
umm...this?



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Maybe I'm just cynical...
but is this really that effective an ad? It seems boring, cold, and the criticism (negative ads) doesn't appear like it would resonate with voters. I don't know, but if these are the type of ads Bennet is going to run against Republicans, maybe it is better if we just send Romanoff. At least he seems to have a bit of fire in his belly.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Well
to defend Bennet all of his attack ads have been rebuttals to Romanoff's attack ads. Also the problem is they share the same views on the issues meaning there isn't a clear ideological difference between them.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
So do we even know who would be a better candidate in the general
between Romanoff and Bennett? I mean, I put so little stock in the possibility of a Romanoff victory I haven't even been paying attention to the head-to-head matchups between him and the Republicans.

Boy, Colorado's politics have been twisty this year, haven't they?  

If it helps
I'm rooting for Bennett. Anyone who enjoys such a huge lead and then falls like that makes me feel better.  
[ Parent ]
Specter
had a huge lead too...until Sestak started broadcasting that ad showing him as the opportunist he was.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I thought
you were rooting for Mike Lee.

;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
haha
Good memory. I'm rooting for a Michael Bennett/Jane Norton general election. A Ken Buck/Andrew Romanoff general election scares the shit outta me.  
[ Parent ]
You see I would think you would think the opposite
Since the recent polls shows both tied with Buck but Norton leading Romanoff but hey it's your decsion. But your most likely not going to get your wish as it looks like it will be Buck as the nominee.

BTW why the the matchup of Ken Buckand Andrew Romanoff general election scares the shit outta you?    

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
I was
making a subtle jab at the [Michael] Bennet/[Bob] Bennett confusion. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hickenlooper might be lucky...somewhat
I personally doubt Bennet would be winning if he were in Hickenlooper's place.

Let's remember our favorite motto, candidates and campaigns matter.  Hickenlooper was the absolute best candidate available for Governor.  Even against a Republican tide, he still went for it.  And so far, no campaign gaffes I've heard of from his side.  As a candidate, I also have heard Hickenlooper was a good mayor of Denver...a nice springboard to a statewide run.

Sure we needed help to win this one, but I don't want to chalk too much up to luck.  Everything else went right outside of the luck factor.

Bennet vs. Romanoff
I've never been wild about Bennet for some reason, though I suppose there's not much difference between him and Romanoff on substance. Romanoff is more rhetorically progressive though, which indicates to me he might be a bit more willing to go places Bennet wouldn't if the need arose, though that could be wrong. I guess I'd throw my lot to Romanoff if I were in CO, but I really don't know who'd be better in the general.

As for Hick, they say luck is where preparation meets opportunity. He's been prepared, and he's getting one hell of an opportunity. I bet every Democrat in America (the ones in real races, at least) wishes they were him.

20, Democrat, KY-01

I think the difference between Bennet and Romanoff
Is that Bennet comes off as cold and boring while Romanoff dosen't that's what i'm getting. Both on the issues seems to be the same it seems the difference is how both of them are running their respective campaigns.

As for the GE can't say who's better. Take this poll for example Both Bennet and Romanoff both are tied with Buck (who's looking to be the likely GOP nominee). The difference is how they fair with Jane Norton as Bennet leads hey by 3 and Romanoff trails by 5. That may not matter if Buck wins the primary so your guess is as good as mine. Personally i'm happy with both candidates.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Poll Roundup (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plagiarism) | 21 comments

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