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SSP Updates 26 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 2:06 PM EDT


Last week, when we made a large round of changes to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings, we promised a second round after we'd ironed out some disagreements, and here it is. There are also some additions, though, that are based on late-breaking polling information, so again it's a pretty big list.

  • AK-Sen: Safe R to Tossup *
  • FL-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • IA-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • NC-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • NH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Sen-B: Safe D to Likely D
  • WV-Sen: Lean D to Tossup

  • NY-Gov: Safe D to Likely D

  • CA-20: Safe D to Likely D
  • FL-22: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-25: Lean R to Tossup
  • GA-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • IA-02: Safe D to Lean D
  • IN-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • MI-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • NC-07: Likely D to Lean D
  • NJ-06: Safe D to Likely D
  • NM-03: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-13: Likely D to Lean D
  • OH-09: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-13: Lean D to Tossup
  • PA-10: Lean D to Tossup
  • TN-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • TX-23: Lean D to Tossup
  • WI-07: Tossup to Lean R
  • WI-08: Lean D to Tossup

25 of these changes favor Republicans; 1 race (the open seat in FL-25) has moved in the Democratic direction.

You might be wondering about the asterisk in Alaska, which even though it just shot up to "Tossup," we aren't really considering a move in the Dems' direction. That's just to remind everyone that "Tossup" doesn't necessarily reflect the Dem candidate's odds in this race; right now, the "Tossup" is more between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski, with Scott McAdams the wild card.
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SSP Updates 26 Race Ratings | 69 comments
These rating changes are always so depressing
It feels like, no matter how crazy Republicans get, we can't even slow down their momentum in all these races, much less turn it around. It just keeps getting worse

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
In a way yes
But these are ratings not results. For instance in both 2006 and 2008 the Republicans held about half the seats in Charlie Cook's final pre-election tossup column. There is other evidence out there that suggests a shrinking enthusiasm gap and with it a tighter generic ballot.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Toss-up implies either 50/50 or very close to it.

If I ever offer up a prediction, I'll probably end up basing it on this (for the House at least)

All Toss-ups break 50/50 for both parties
All Leans break 65/35 for the favored party
All Likely break 85/15 for the favored party
All Safe break 100/0 for the favored party

You can adjust however you want, but the results probably won't stray too far from this.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Indeed
Which is how I get 30-35 right now.
[ Parent ]
Going back to one of my old diaries...
Back in January of this year, I tried to develop some sort of projection model for the House and the Senate.  I discovered that my initial projection was that we would lose 32 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate (which I revised to "4-5" based on input by SSP nation).  I know that the projection model had some flaws, but it was fun to do, especially since I incorporated the feedback from other "Swingnuts"!.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Nate has some excellent commentary on the topic
ref http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

one excerpt:

(By the way: not only will we get some of those 10:1 calls wrong, but we should  get some of them wrong. If, over the course of several political cycles, every candidate whom we rate as a 10:1 favorite in fact wins his race, that means that our model is not calibrated properly, and we're overestimating the amount of uncertainty - perhaps these candidates are really 100:1 favorites.)

aka, per user DGM's quants, 15% of the underdogs in the "Likely" column should win.  

[ Parent ]
The biggest thing about these ratings is that some of them are delayed, so...
...it's not like they reflect a change from just a couple weeks ago.

The moderators weren't able to update stuff for a long time as things changed rapidly, and some of these are a long time comin', not reflecting the most recent September trends.

That is to say, it's not as bad as it looks.  Sort of.  I can't find the right way to explain what I mean.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I know what you mean

[ Parent ]
IA 2 and OH 13
IA 2, from safe to lean without stopping at likely?  OH-13 to tossup based on . . . ?
And TX-23 as well
I'd move WI 8 to lean R before I'd move those three races as far as you did.
[ Parent ]
Those three
are all kind of cusp dwellers. IA-02 is based mostly on un-countered MMM internal polling and a vague sense of Loebsack sluggishness. Probably one of the less ominious Lean Ds, though.

OH-13 is mostly about money; the DCCC is pouring in IEs so they're taking this seriously and Sutton was up only 2 in that AFF poll. TX-23 is more about polls and the district's PVI, i.e. Rodriguez trailing in Canseco internals. But the DCCC hasn't really engaged this one, so they might think it's safer than we do. So, similarly, these are some of the less ominous Tossups, but we feel too endangered to be Lean D. But those are all worthwhile objections, to which I'd have to say "YMMV."

[ Parent ]
OK
I can see your rationale for the other two more than I can for OH-13.
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info
At first, I was mildly surprised that OH-13 was moved to Tossup, but I now understand why.

Truth be told, I see almost half of the tossups breaking in our direction.  Right now, we have 43 Democratic seats in the Tossup category.  If we lose 22 of them, along with the 11 Democratic Seats in Lean Rep or Likely Rep, that would bring the number to 33.  We will probably lose about a half of dozen (6) seats in Lean/Likely Dem categories, bringing the number to 39.  To compensate, we will most likely pick up 4 seats from the Republicans, reducing the number to 35.

I know this is an overly simplistic method, but right now I really like the current ratings.  If we lose 35, I won't be jumping for joy, but I'll have a slight smirk on my face that the election didn't hand Boehner the Speaker of the House role (crossed fingers that we don't have any Democratic defectors "cough Parker Griffith cough").

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Uh, yeah.
If we're +1 or less from the House flipping to the GOP and Olivero wins in WV-01, I can totally see him bolting to the GOP just so he can say he "thwarted Pelosi's librul agenda to be re-elected speaker".

Hell, the surviving Blue Dogs could all defect en masse for all I know, but at the very least I don't trust Olivero any farther than I can throw West Virginia.

[ Parent ]
yeah
I'm surprised this hasn't gotten more play.  With the waffling answers about their vote for Pelosi given by certain Blue Dogs, what happens if the coin does land on its side and it's 219-216, or 218-217, and/or a couple of recounts going on...Ahh the possibilities are endless.
[ Parent ]
If it's less then 220-15 Democratic
then Pelosi is probably gone. She is a very talented politician and represents her district very well, but i easily see 3-4 Democrats voting agauns her (though not for Boehner)...
[ Parent ]
Whoever survives this year
will probably have a much easier go of it in 2012, as it will be a presidential election year and the likely voter profile will have changed.

So I can't imagine anyone flipping, especially since tea partiers would probably challenge them for the (R) nomination in a couple years, and win.

[ Parent ]
I'm not too worried about it right now
I'm more worried about the Democrats losing control after the election results are in.  After the election results are sorted out, if we have a 220-215, 219-216, or 218-217 advantage, I'll start mildly sweating that we will have some flip-floppers.  However, I think the majority of the Blue Dogs have a home in the Democratic party.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
not as worried about party switchers
I think the quick ends to the careers of Arlen Specter and Parker Griffith, as well as other primary defeats of establishment-backed candidates will lead many Dem incumbents to question just how easily they will win renomination as Republicans.
[ Parent ]
What's curious about Iowa is...
...one of those right-wing IE groups is plopping down $800K against Braley, but I don't think anyone is spending against Loebsack.

It makes me wonder what they know that I don't know.

Or, rather, if there's a lot more chaos and less order in these spending decisions than meets the eye, so that we can't really read as much into where the money goes as we would like to think.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Good job
I can't disagree with a single one of those calls.  The only one I even thought about was MI-01 which I was still thinking of as a tossup, but looking into it a bit more, I agree with your choice to put it as Lean R.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
KS-03 is the definition of a Tossup
I am still officially on record as disagreeing with this being anything other than a Tossup until I see some darn good polling. It's a swingy suburban seat that Obama won and is moving rapidly in our direction.

Plus, campaign-wise, our candidate has proven surprisingly good (Stephene Moore, who can attack her opponent on camera and still come off seeming like a really nice lady) and theirs surprisingly bad (Kevin Yoder, he of the fake family with the fake dog and the otherwise-milquetoast commercials).

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Nothing right now
is rapidly moving in our direction.
[ Parent ]
that's like saying
a snowstorm in DC means there isnt climate change.  Long-term vs short-term.
[ Parent ]
No
The conversation was about the 2010 election. That is the short-term. Whether the seat will be blue in 2030 is irrelevant.  
[ Parent ]
Actually, it's relevant to 2012
If it flips, it could flip back the following cycle.
[ Parent ]
Ok
But that still has nothing to do with right now. Which is what I said.
[ Parent ]
if you choose to read it that way
It's a swingy suburban seat that Obama won and is moving rapidly in our direction
 

Sounds a lot more like a long-term analysis to me, he even mentions the 2008 election.  And where the seat will end up in 2030 does matter because long-term trends can stunt the short-term.  Like for MN, I expect the NW and Southern suburbs to be much bigger bloodbaths here in MN at the state legislative level compared to the Western ones because the Western ones have trended more consistently and more rapidly.  Id rather not even think about what will happen in Dakota county and you can kiss the Woodbury ladies goodbye.  But we may pick-up Edina's state house seat.

[ Parent ]
OH-9?
Marcy Kaptur, really? This is the first time I've ever seen this race given any attention.
I heard
Joe the Plumber is running a strong race against her this year
[ Parent ]
That's the only one I disagree with

[ Parent ]
One political article just yesterday or today referred to her as being in a competitive race...
...in mentioning a TV interview she gave about the midterms.

That was the first I had heard that she wasn't 100% safe, and I scoffed at it as ignorant.

But then this rating change is the 2nd I've heard of it, so I don't know if I should stop scoffing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm just going to continue to scoff at all D+10
for my own sanity.  
[ Parent ]
and if that thinking makes my election night worse
well, I already planned on being very well stocked with booze that night.
[ Parent ]
If we lose the House
I believe it'll be due to Incumbents in D+5<-->D+10 seats who "mail it in"

If I remember right, there were a few of those unpleasant "surprises" in '94, and even in '80 (though '80 was partially Carter's fault for conceding so early).

AFAIK, every candidate in tighter districts is running the best campaigns they know how.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, me too
But she's up against a self-funding guy (Rich Iott) who's put close to a million into the race, and she's actually broken open the piggy bank and started advertising on TV. Kind of a mini-Ganley situation. I think if there were noteworthy polls we'd be hearing more about this race, but it's worth sticking in the Likely pile just to keep an eye on.
[ Parent ]
Knowing what I know about greater Toledo
Kaptur is an icon there, and most residents there would vote for (insert superlative here) before they would vote for a republican.  Iott might do alright in the lake erie coast sections of the district, but he'll get slaughtered in Toledo.  

If Kaptur ends up with less than 57-58% I'd be stunned.

Also, I might be biased, but I think just because some right-wing pollsters are calling OH-13 close doesn't mean it is.  All Ganley has is money.  Sutton's going to win, period.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Rich Lott
Could there be a better name for a self-funder than Rich Lott?  Sounds like a character in a Harvey Comic book.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I saw that Jennifer Duffy
moved MD-Gov from lean D to tossup--confused by that.
Ridiculous is more like it

[ Parent ]
ME-Gov too
Both of those, I think, are ones where they missed the boat on downgrading them in the first place and are making up for it in the very week that the momentum seems to be shifting Dem-ward in those races. Amusing that they fall behind on their ratings changes as much as we do, considering that they actually get paid to spend all day doing this stuff, whereas we all have actual day jobs.
[ Parent ]
When did they move NH-Gov?
I have to say their "Tossup" category is much broader than I would be comfortable with. That includes Republican held seats. Nevada? Texas?  
[ Parent ]
Okay, I get most of these, but what's the deal with NJ-06?
Pallone has $4 million in the bank, his opponent is a teabagger with no money, and it's a D+8 district.
Lay of the land
How many posters expect the Dems to retain control of the House? Senate?

Having seen this from the other side in 06 and 08, the writing was pretty much on the wall at this point.  Barring a true surprise, the course seems to be set for 2010 (and the electoral implications are similar).  On election day, Obama's approval will be upside-down, voters will have a negative assessment of the economy, and the Dems' key initiatives--the stimulus and the health bill--will be seen as expensive failures.

It is interesting to read so many of the same things:  some perceived momentum in a hopeless race, expecting all sorts of crap that doesn't matter (the pledge, bill jefferson, purported backlash against tea parties/code pink/john kerry's "stuck in iraq" comments) to be some sort of game changer, some seesawing in the generic ballot to be the beginning of a genuine comeback.    

Senate is staying with the Dems
I peg the House at 70% likelihood of flipping.
[ Parent ]
Senate stays Dem, 95% odds. House flips, 55% likely, downgraded by me from 60%...
...a month ago.

The big difference between now and 2006 is the number of seats needed to flip control:  15 then, 39 now.  That fact alone greatly lowers the GOP odds now compared to Dem odds then.

I can easily see the GOP taking a net 49 seats, but I can just as easily see a net 35.  It's awful hard to predict any more narrowly than that a month out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Right,
and with the House, polling is notoriously unreliable. There are always major surprises on election night.
[ Parent ]
Numbers
Definitely a good point on that. 40 is a far heavier lift than 40.  I think anyone would say it is a virtual certainty that the GOP will pick up more than 15 and the environment was at least as bad for the GOP in 2006.

That said, the over-exposure factor is quite different. Maybe two republicans were in districts with PVIs of D+5 and less than a dozen in districts Kerry won.  Leach and Simmons were in the most democratic and both lost. In fact, Leach's was a late-breaking race if not an out-of-the-blue stunner.  The GOP could practically retake the house if it won all R+5-plus districts that McCain won and little beyond.  The dems would lose a bunch of seats merely in the absence of a wave and an only somewhat pro-dem environment, let alone now.

Otoh, not all "dead men walking" will lose, so the dems have some cushion--if 25 or so are 5 or 10 to 1 underdogs, well that is three or so seats saved.  But, because the environment is so "target rich" 3 or so will lose from the races we might rank between 75 and 100.          

[ Parent ]
See my new diary on this subject, and more specifically regarding seats McCain won......
There are 49 seats Dems hold where McCain won.

There are also 34 seats Republicans hold where Obama won.

Now, that latter group of 34 includes a lot of districts whose support of Obama was the first time in a very long they voted for a Democrat for President.  But SOME of THOSE are seats with changing demographics, becoming friendlier to Democrats as part of trend.  Nevertheless, quite a few of them remain seats where Obama's win was an aberration and not likely to recur except in years where a Democrat (Obama in 2012 or others in the future) is winning going away.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Democratic Party...
...has a chance of keeping the house. These past couple weeks I've, at long last, noticed Democratic voters getting angry about the frequent number of GOP candidates that are too extreme- in that they've kicked out the non-extreme members.Also, with the normal attention being paid to the campaigns, more people are making up their mind, and the enthusiasm gap is narrowing. It's a more subtle change, though.
[ Parent ]
House at 50:50
Senate not in play this election but will be in '12.

It was fairly clear Democrats were going to win the House in the '06 election beginning in April or May 2006.  Senate control was a matter of three or four races in Red States that couldn't really be gauged that far in advance.

I don't agree with your proposed narrative.  The selfserving Republican assertion of the narrative will be to claim e.g. the failure of the stimulus and HCR.  I think polling will show all those things to be in fact equivocal.

What partisans on both sides will agree to, I believe, is that a certain variety of Democrat- establishment, conservative- and a certain kind of moderate establishment Republican are intolerable to vote for.  In short, we're agreed on voting out a center Rightish establishment of long standing.  We don't agree on specifically why we want them out, but we definitely don't want them making the decisions.


[ Parent ]
I'm on the optimistic side, I think the Dems keep the House
I'm going to go on a limb and say the Republicans take a net 32-34 seats, and the Republicans have Michael Steele's head!

I'll also say the Republicans take 5 senate seats net.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
afraid to jinx things
so I won't make any predictions.  

FWIW, I tried to avoid treating my own views on the Dems' big ticket items as some sort of fact.  As in, voters' perceptions of those seem unlikely to change in the next month without regard to their merit or lack thereof.  Maybe in the future, they will be seen as great successes... but not in the next 39 days.  You can claim this perception is "equivocal."  Nevertheless, Democrats have spent three times as much on anti-health bill ads as pro.  That is pretty revealing about how people facing the voters and having spent millions on polling perceive things.  

As to the enthusiasm gap, sure it will close to some extent, but it is still going to be a problem.  Anecdotes about how fellow partisans are worked up about how "extremist" the other guys are aside, I think that is not going to counteract a sense among mainstream voters (by definition not reading or posting on this site) that things are not going right and the Dems are in charge.  If I had a dime for every "No socialist/teabagger like ___ could ever win in ____."

Baystater, I am curious by what you mean by the sense that voters are rebelling against a center-right establishment. I agree that the market collapse, foreign policy debacles of the last few years have caused people to lose faith in elites/establishment and the ideological components are not clear cut.  I am skeptical that is aimed at the political right in particular, however.  I do think the whole tea party/right wing populism thing has enabled the GOP to reposition themselves (and distance themselves from their own recent failures) to take advantage of the mood.  

[ Parent ]
Well
I don't mind making predictions - it's not like I have any money on the line!  My prediction is that the GOP takes both the House and the Senate.  I just see this as a really big wave.  I'll even go so far as to say the GOP will be at 52 in the Senate by the end of the night and that the gains in the house will be 60+.  Am I wrong?  If so, feel free to laugh at me and tease me about it the day after the election. :)
FWIW, while I have become a total poll junkie of the last couple of months (and am worried about withdrawal!) I think most of these house polls are crap - on both sides.  But there is a big wave out there and whereas some individual Dems are going to survive it, it'll wash lots of others away - including plenty of good ones who don't really deserve it, but that's what happens in waves.  Some of the weird GOP's who win will be washed back out to see in 2012 like they were in 1996.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Who are you predicting
will win? Just the Senate would be fine, because House elections are so numerous.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Sen
Here's my daring prediction for the Senate.
The GOP loses none of their seats.

They take:
(All obvious ones + leaners)
ND
AR
IN
PN
WI
CO
(All straight toss-ups)
IL
NV
WV
(2out of 3 that are leaning Dem)
CT
WA
Meaning that of those in play, they fail only in CA.
I don't consider DE in play and AK will not affect their numbers even if LM wins and I don't consider it in play for the Dems.  I think Boxer is best situated to get above the wave - more so than Murray and Blumenthal.  And CA-Sen resisted the 1994 wave as well.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
You might want to see this from PPP:
Went in the field in CT tonight, Blumenthal up big. Think polls earlier this week were false alarm

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[ Parent ]
I did
I did see that - I'll admit that my prediction is pushing the CW a bit, but it's just how I see this wave breaking.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Much credit to you for the bold prediction
I haven't made a prediction and might not. I'll say this: I am hopeful but generally pessimistic about the Democrats' chances in this cycle. I will be shocked and very upset but by no means entirely surprised if the Democrats lose both Houses. That said, when I look at specific races, I start to see how daunting a task the Republicans have in front of them.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
House -- In terms of the generic ballot
if it's +4R (or less), then Ds will retain control of the House.

if it's +8R (or more), then Ds will lose control of the House.

Anything in between will depend on the quality of candidates and campaigns. I suspect the break-even (218 seats) will be at a generic ballot level of about +6 or +7R.

The big unknown is whether things will break against the incumbent party (D) about Nov 1. If the break is significant, then the break-even level will be lower, perhaps at +4 or +5R. But that break could be overstated, given the additional use of early voting.

[ Parent ]
With
do respect I do not see how you see Alaska as a tossup. I know this is the SSP special race but McAdams is not at all close in any of the polls and I do not see how he wins. I honestly think this is a lean R race. I hope I'm wrong though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
no
they mean tossup between gop/indy

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Oh.
Yeah that makes sense. I should really read the whole post not just skim over them.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Bright / Minnick
Exactly what do these guys need to do for them to be considered Leans D?

They've both had important conservative endorsements, great polling. Not to mention, their opponents are not exactly that great.

They have a heavy reliance on PVI
which I dont think is always a bad thing.  It's a balancing act; sometimes PVI doesnt matter at all because of the opponent (Bill Sali) but sometimes the PVI makes it impossible for a candidate to succeed, which is how I feel about Raj Goyle this cycle.

I think the pundits just dont want to wake up the morning after and look like the dumb asses who couldnt even predict how an R+16 seat would vote.

[ Parent ]
Baron Hill
He's a goner. I talked to Todd Young's general counsel today, and internal polling shows Baron trailing by a few points and with dismal reelect numbers (mid-30s).
Yeah gone
Cos his opponent's campaign says so.
[ Parent ]
Ha
And even if he does lose, he'll just take it back in 2012.  He's done that before.  As Blue Dogs go, I don't mind him.
[ Parent ]
NJ-06
Frank Pallone is in trouble?  Really?  Did I miss something here?
SSP Updates 26 Race Ratings | 69 comments

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