Google Ads


Site Stats

MN-06: SUSA Has Bachmann Up by 9

by: James L.

Sun Sep 19, 2010 at 3:11 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (9/13-15, likely voters, 7/9-11 in parens):

Tarryl Clark (D): 40 (39)
Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 49 (48)
Bob Anderson (IP): 6 (6)
Aubrey Immelman (I): 1 (2)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Not much has changed since July, despite a ream of attack ads from Camp Bachmann on Tarryl Clark's tax votes in the legislature. SUSA still finds that Bachmann is the choice of Generation Now, giving her a big 57-31 lead among 18 to 34 year-olds, while the gray-haired set in the 50-plus crowd backs Clark by 48-41 (up from a 1-point Bachmann lead last time).

I have a pretty jaundiced view of the chances of Dems in a district where they've been twice-bitten by Bachmann, and while these numbers aren't atrocious, I just don't see how this one gets done.
James L. :: MN-06: SUSA Has Bachmann Up by 9
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

MN-06: SUSA Has Bachmann Up by 9 | 36 comments
8% of liberals are undecided.
Should close a little bit more.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
One thing that hasnt been done yet
is the roll out of attack ads against Bachmann so this may be her high mark.  But the things to attack her on pretty much just energize her base more so it's a tough line to balance.
We need another pollster here
That margin among 18-34 year olds is just not credible, but it isn't credible in any SUSA poll or anybody's poll for that matter. This is an age group where those with a landline veer far more conservative than those who don't. If SUSA says it is a 9-point race I say it could easily be only half that.
I dunno,
this is one of those districts that used to lean Democratic about 20 years ago, though in a conservative rural way, and then got exurban and became very Republican. I could see older voters being a bit more open-minded than some of the more conservative kids. I seem to remember McCain did fairly well among young voters overall as well in MN.  
[ Parent ]
If getting 34% (18-29) is "fairly well"...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

It was SUSA who always had wacky results with 18-34 in MN...

And can we put to rest the argument that this is due to the margin of errors in the cross-tabs? Law of large numbers anyone? If SUSA is consistently getting 18-29 year olds being ridiculously conservative/republican it isn't a "margin of error" problem. It's a methodology problem. End of story. Their final numbers might be fine...but there is a seriously problem with their polling methodology. I know they claim it's not because of cell phones (they did a sample and showed there was no difference...but then it is a polling response issue).  

[ Parent ]
I agree
And I actually thought McCain did better than that. Interesting. There is a significant College population in St. Cloud that is Clark's base and she has a significant turnout machine there. These voters are likely to be Democratic, and unlikely to have landlines.  
[ Parent ]
Landlines v cell phones
That's just got to be the cause.
"More than a third of people under age 35 - including about half of those age 25 to 29 - have only cell phones."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37...

Hopefully after the elections are over and they have time, maybe Nate Silver and/or pollster.com can revisit the issue.

[ Parent ]
MN-6
The district itself used to be a moderate district. That being said, the district is not located anywhere it once was. This area of Minnesota is very conservative, other than the swingy Washington County portion.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
It seems that the areas in the current 6th
swung hard away from the Dems in the late 1990s.  Clinton won all the counties in the current 6th in 1996, and Gore lost all of them, some very badly.  

It is also worth noting that Jesse Ventura won large pluralities, and in many cases majorities, in the 6th district in 1998.  Wright, Benton, Sherburne, and Anoka counties gave Ventura majorities.  

Perhaps you have some insights into why this happened.  Did a lot of younger conservatives move into these exurbs in the late 1990s onwards?  Or were these places like Western PA, where there was a strong union tradition which kept social conservatives Dem until the 1990s, and have since shifted right.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
And in 2000
Mark Kennedy upset 4 term incumbent David Minge. Of course that 6th looked a lot different and was more rural.  
[ Parent ]
Kennedy Upset Minge...
... In the 3rd congressional district. The lines were WAY different then.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I dunno
My experience is contradictory because the locals who have always been there in the exurbs are the extreme conservatives.  One thing is that these areas are very Catholic so many it's more the shift of Catholic voters.  And these are very conservative Catholics who are very engaged in the "culture wars".  So with them it may be a western PA thing but instead of unions, farmers.  And since, they've shifted very quickly.

And one group of people heavily moving here are minorities.  When I first moved there in 8th grade, the middle school had literally 5 or fewer minorities.  By the time I graduated, my high school had maybe 100 or so.  I didnt know too many white people moving in because most of these people had children in elementary school vs high school.  (Built two new elementary schools and turned the middle school into another elementary last decade.)

The large suburbs are a bit different as these people are a bit wealthier, more swingy, and hate Bachmann.

[ Parent ]
Like Blaine
And Roseville

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Exurban sprawl
A lot of these are teabaggish exurbs. In landslide elections, i.e. POTUS 1996 in Minnesota, or 2006 Senate, Democrats can win all but about 4-5 counties in the entire state (Wright, Carver, Otter Tail, Sherburn). That is not reflective of how the electorate plays out in general, for elections though. Look at Mike Beebee in Arkansas, he nearly won every county, whereas Obama won only a couple counties in 2008. The wesburn 'burbs are the most conservative part of the state of Minnesota, and any district that encompasses them will be a Republican district, even if the PVI isn't huge.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
MN-06 Macropolitical Analysis
In the course of running against incumbent Rep. Michele Bachmann in the 2008 Republican primary -- I'm currently on the ballot as an unaffiliated independent but not actively campaigning -- I conducted an analysis of MN-06  macropolitical dynamics:

http://www.immelman.us/news/ca...

Having volunteered on Patty Wetterling's campaigns in 2004 and 2006, I developed a specific strategy for defeating Bachmann:

http://www.immelman.us/news/ho...

http://www.immelman.us/news/bu...

However, the combination of Bachmann having attracted a national following and the change in the political landscape since I formulated the above strategy have compromised the prospects for its execution. The window for defeating Bachmann may well have closed in 2008.  

Fiscal responsibility without extremist rhetoric.

[ Parent ]
Older Voters in Minnesota
While the spreads in this poll are exaggerated it is not unusual for older voters to be more Democratic than younger voters in Minnesota. Those who grew up in the age of Humphrey, McCarthy and Mondale have established deep Democratic roots and are less likely to vote Republican than those under 50.

BTW this is probably the high water mark for Clark IMO. This district went to McCain by 9 points and to Bush by 14, I just don't see a non Blue Dog Democrat like Clark winning this district in a Republican leaning year.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

You're Right
This district will be dismantled come redistricting. The weird claw-like shape goes against the traditionally compact and modest district lines Minnesota is used to. Bachmann will be in congress in 2011, but only 2 out of the 3  of Bachmann Paulsen and Kline will be in 2013, mark my words.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I'm almost certain MN will lose a district
and that therefore Bachmann and Kline will be drawn together in one super republican crescent shaped suburban district. I'll send you a 50 dollar check if it isn't so, (assuming, hopefully, that Dayton wins).  
[ Parent ]
I agree that there will be a crescent shaped district.
However, Bachmann's house won't be drawn into it. Bachmann lives in western Washington County. Her house will almost certainly be put into the current 4th with McCollum

I am still 50/50 whether or not Minnesota loses a district.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I say this because whatever
moderate, old school agreement the parties used to have about making compact districts that were fair maps, ended in 2002 with the Republican gerrymander the State House put forth at the time.  
[ Parent ]
Meh
The DFL put out an equally friendly map that year, and the IP governor at the time put out his own map that was somewhere in between. The main problem was that outstate Minnesota was shedding population, so the "4-corners" map that had existed for decades was no longer really practical (or possible without getting into serious metro territory). The question became "then what." I honestly don't see some bizarre 7-0 or 8-0 configuration where Minneapolis is split 3 ways like I have seen some people have thought up. I think a sensible crescent taking up all the shitty counties to the southwest, west and north of the metro are taken into one glob. I imagine that this district will be upwards of R+7 or so. Nationally that doesn't seem all that high, but unlike an R+7 district in Georgia or Louisiana or something, this district would never have a chance at elected anyone without an R next to their name.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
That was pretty much
exactly what my map looked like; my goal was a 6-1 map wherein I pushed Peterson's district a little to the right, (to fit his incredible conservatism and to keep Oberstar's district mostly rural, and give him more friendly territory to replace exurban places like Isanti), and you told me it would never happen that way.  
[ Parent ]
Heads up
It will be Speaker Sertich come January. And Tony Sertich is an Iron Range DLFer. The 7th and 8th will remain nearly unchanged, and only tweaked to adjust for population. I hate to burst your bubble, but that's what's going to happen. You make Peterson's district any more Republican and it will elect a Republican. If you think Bachmann is bad, just see what would come out of the 7th. Peterson is quite in line with his current district, and would lose if you got rid of Beltrami et al from his district. The 8th will remain DFL once Sertich replaces Oberstar in 2013 and will remain that way as it has for generations. Don't mess with what's working, and the DFL has it so 3 outstate districts produce 3 democrats. Leave it be, it really is for the best.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Isn't Minnesota
losing a district?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Maybe
It is on the border

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
One, the state is losing a district
And it's not working anymore. That's what you can't seem to get through your thick head in all our discussions. Mark, another well-informed DFL-er, has talked in length about how the Democratic areas of Oberstar's district are shrinking while the Republican exurban areas are growing and getting more Republican all the time. Those areas need to be dropped and more Democratic rural areas to the western border picked up.

Two. Peterson's district is not that conservative. Obama got 49% there. Peterson himself is extremely conservative, and if you think he can't win with the rural areas shifted a small bit and the district shifted 3-4 points to the right, you simply have to be delusional. Tim Waltz is a much better Democrat, and his district should definitely be pushed into being a bit more Democratic by absorbing the Democratic portions of Dakota County.

The principle concern will be ensuring that a Democrat wins MN-03.  

[ Parent ]
Walz
It would be tough to draw Walz into a map that includes the Democratic portions of Dakota County (Northern part of the county). Personally I don't think Walz's district needs a lot of shoring up but if you want to you could include Democratic leaning Rice County.

Also I don't think it is a given Minnesota loses a seat. From what I have read the last 3 seats will come down to 4 states, Minnesota, Missouri, Texas and California. With double digit unemployment and a population that is harder to count my money is on California being the last state to lose a seat.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I'm quite sure Missouri will lose a seat
before California.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure
The recession has hit California harder than the other 3 states competing for the last spot. Plus California has a large number of immigrants and minorities which have been historically harder for the census to count. Guess we will know in December.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
MN-03
The two MSP districts (not sure on the numbers) are overly safe for the Democrats. Couldn't they dilute one or both of those to make MN-03 more Democratic?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
4th and 5th
And yes, the 5th would be quite easy to split, even without cracking Minneapolis in half like some have suggested. The 5th takes up Minneapolis and the liberal suburbs in Hennepin County. The 3rd takes up all of the moderate/conservative suburbs/exurbs in Hennepin County. redrawing the lines isn't hard at all.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Woa, settle down.
I am just thankful that you are not drawing the maps. Republican wetdreams of drawing districts in Minnesota consist of 2 things.
1: Combine Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district
2: run a district that stretches from Lake Superior to North Dakota.

The populations of Isanti County etc. are not sufficient to take away from Duluth being the population and cultural center of the district. There is just no way that the Iron Range DFLers would go for a district that makes the 8th take up all the farmland to the west. Without the votes from the Iron Range, the DFL wouldn't even have a majority in either house.

Walz is a rural/Mankato guy, and he would be very susceptible to a primary challenge from someone in Dakota County if you did that. And the odds of a city person holding the first district is exactly Zero. Walz is in no danger of losing this district, even in a very Republican year like this.

Again, don't change things that fundamentally work.

As for the 3rd, that is quite easy to make it very Democratic without detracting from anything other than the 5th, which would be safe regardless.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Independence Party
Do you guys think that Bob Anderson will become a major spoiler? The IP candidate for governor Tom Horner is center-right and may help out Bob Anderson.
No.
Horner is pretty centrist, not even really center-right. But no one knows who this Anderson fellow is, and Bachmann is actually pretty in line with the district she represents.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
"Bachmann is ... in line with the district she represents"
So you think most of us in MN-06 are nuts?

Fiscal responsibility without extremist rhetoric.
[ Parent ]
To all of the Collin Peterson Haters:
Here is a partial list of Democratic Congresspeople that have a LOWER lifetime Progressive Punch rating that Peterson:

Driehause
Markey
Giffords
Kosmas
Foster
Dahlkemper
Space
Boccieri
Carney
Ellsworth
Murphy

People here are always backing these, and other moderate candidates, and they are MORE conservative than Peterson, and yet Peterson is the one that gets the terrible reputation. It boggles my mind, especailly considering that before the 08 presidential election, this district was the highest Republican PVI in the state (yes, eve more conservative that Bachmann's)

http://www.progressivepunch.or...

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

MN-06: SUSA Has Bachmann Up by 9 | 36 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox