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MN-06: Bachmann Leads Clark by 9

by: James L.

Mon Jul 12, 2010 at 11:46 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (7/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Tarryl Clark (D): 39
Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 48
Bob Anderson (IP): 6
Aubrey Immelman (I): 2
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.2%)

This is the first public poll we've seen from this race since December, when Public Policy Polling gave Bachmann a significantly wider 55-37 lead. One of the most striking findings of the poll -- other than the recurring SUSA curiosity of an extremely GOP-friendly electorate of younger voters -- is the monstrous gender gap. Males favor Bachmann by a 56-31 margin, while women support Clark by a narrower 47-39 spread.

Overall, these aren't bad numbers for a district as red as this one in such a craptacular environment, but I still have enormous difficulty selling any kind of optimism for a race that stung us twice in much friendlier cycles.
James L. :: MN-06: Bachmann Leads Clark by 9
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MN-06: Bachmann Leads Clark by 9 | 40 comments
The Tough News...
...is that Anderson is drawing 6%. The protest vote in MN always has a place to go where it won't hurt the Republicans: the Independence Party.  
I don't buy that the IP...
... hurts the Democrats more than the Republicans. I think there are a lot of moderate Republicans who can bring themselves to vote for the IP candidate but who would never vote for a Democrat.

FWIW I think the Independence Party has only made a difference in the outcome of 3 elections in Minnesota. I think T-Paw was re-elected in 2006 when the IP candidate leaned more to the Democratic point of view. Exit Polls showed the Norm Coleman probably would have won a 2 man race in 2008 and of Course Jesse won in 1998.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I don't suppose you think Tim Penny
a former Democratic congressman, drew mostly voters who would have ended up voting Democratic when he got 19% in 2002?
[ Parent ]
Penny was a very consevative Democrat...
... and Pawlenty beat Moe by 8 points that year. Penny voters would have had to vote for Moe by a better than 2-1 margin to change the outcome and i don't think that was very likely.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I disagree, I bet a better-than-2-to-1 was very plausible......
Penny's vote-getting history was as a Democrat, from Democrats and Democrat-leaners.  He was never defeated or otherwise unpopular as a Congressman.  That history with voters matters, it carries over into future elections.  Just ask Arlen Specter, who found out a couple months ago that people who voted against him his entire career didn't change their minds so easily.

A fair share of those 19% in 2002 simply wouldn't have voted in a 2-way.  Anytime you have a significant 3rd wheel on the ballot, you get extra turnout that isn't there for major parties.  If you pare down to who would have showed up in a 2-way, it wouldn't surprise me if those remaining Penny voters would have gone overwhelmingly with the Democrat.

I bet it would have been a lot closer than it was in any case.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Um, Bachman-Tinklinberg?
And a couple hundred votes less for Franken, and Coleman would be in his second Senate term.  
[ Parent ]
3 races?
They cost us MN-6 in 2008, all of the Indy vote for MN-3 in 2008 was made up of Obama voters, and that's all I got til I get home from work.

Or state house district 42A (northern Edina) didn't flip our way bc the incumbent could run on the Indy line after getting tossed out of the GOP, and that seat almost certainly would have gone our way otherwise (most heavily Dem seat controlled by an R the state legislature.)

Wish I wasn't going boating right after work as this is a topic really worth discussing/investigating.  Maybe Ill just have to start a fourth project (screw the other 3 I've got going!)

[ Parent ]
My Democrat friends,
please continue spending your money in MN-6...
Already looking forward to 2012 my friend...
... it is going to be so easy to re-district Bachmann out of a seat.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Only Way
After scratching out victories in Democratic cycles, there was no way Bachmann would lose her seat, especially with her being a tea party favorite and rising star in the GOP. She'll probably try to run for Senate in 2012 against Klobacher when he seat gets erased like you said.
[ Parent ]
She
would have no chance in hell if she challenged Klobacher.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
itd be almost be sweeter that way
Because she wouldn't be able to do shit about it.  (Unless she moves to run against Kline in an uber GOP district.)
[ Parent ]
Democratic
If you use "Democrat" as an adjective, we're not your friends, and you certainly are not ours.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Methinks a couple bannings are warranted......
This is a Democratic site.  Republicans are our guests, and expected to behave as good guests.  There are now a couple posters this week who are not meeting SSP standards for the nature and quality of commentary here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
While this a Democratic site
and there are typical R actions / rhetoric that can / should result in bannings here -- I suggest that we should not get too sensitive.

In this case, I think simple reminders that the term is "Democratic" are sufficient.

Anyone who reads or posts on R sites on a regular basis may rarely see the term "Democratic" used properly. As a result, such users may write the pejorative term "Democrat" out of force of habit.

[ Parent ]
At the very least
an apology is needed.
[ Parent ]
I'm too old and tired to be offended
I took the original comment for what it was worth, and simply dismissed it.  When we get offended by someone, we are giving them power over us.  I don't feel like giving someone power over me when they have done little, if anything, to support the purpose of SSP.

But I think you are right on a different avenue.  An apology could remove the possibility of a banning from SSP.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Just ban most of the GOPers here
I only find like two or three of them tolerable in all  honesty.  This place just doesn't feel like my liberal home anymore.  And what makes the ones tolerable here is that they built up the commradery to get to make 'ha your party is failing jokes'.  And adding in a self-deprecating twist goes a looooong way!
[ Parent ]
All gardens need some weeding now and then.
The same user was spreading a Lautenberg death rumor last week. http://www.swingstateproject.c...
[ Parent ]
It's way excessive
to ban someone for using "Democrat" as an adjective. It's wrong to do, but I've seen some Democrats here do it, too.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Democrat"ic"
>>If you use "Democrat" as an adjective, we're not your friends, and you certainly are not ours.  

I'm a moderate Republican who loves this site and only just started posting, and I used to respect the request to call it the "Democratic" party.  However, I've decided to not be as careful since the term "teabagger" has become universal.  When Democrats call it the "Tea Party", then I'll begin to return the respect again.  And I'm not even a rabid tea party person, I just think it's a shame that one side gets all fussy when an "ic" is added, but has no problems with a more mean-spirited term.

Thanks for letting me post.

[ Parent ]
If you don't call it the Democratic Party
you are not a moderate Republican in my book, just a right-wing thug.
[ Parent ]
While you're an excellent user here
I suspect such overreactions may get you banned.  
[ Parent ]
Wow
I should be clear that I don't believe that Democrats who use the term "teabagger" are "left wing thugs".  I'm just looking for some kind of equivalance here.  I love political process stories and elections and whatnot, so that's why I joined.  Normally I don't let my own politics get in the way of rational analysis of results or predictions, so I've never been called a thug before in my life.  It's kind of exhilarating!
[ Parent ]
How many people here say "tea-bagger" instead of "Tea-Partier"
out of dislike?  I sure dont, I do because that is a very commonly accepted name for them and their tea-bagger movement.  I never even thought twice about this and you bringing it up is the first time Ive ever thought of it as being offensive.  Tea-Partiers and tea-bagger came about around the same and is quiet interchangeable.  Democratic vs Democrat is a different story.
[ Parent ]
Oh and Redstaters say tea-bagger
a lot as well.
[ Parent ]
I completely reject the bogus idea
that teabaggers are comparable to the Democratic Party.  

Teabaggers are right-wing extremists who are wholly funded by financial companies, oil companies, and other big wealthy interests, in other words they are astroturfing.  They are deserving of less than zero respect of any kind.  I would compare them to the extreme anti-war groups of the late 1960s, but even that gives them too much credit.

The fact that you even compare teabaggers as the political equivalent of Democrats puts into serious doubt your "moderate" credentials.  

[ Parent ]
Re;
Well, I'm glad I don't need your hand stamp for my "Moderate Credentials".  I'd be in Arizona and they'd pull me over and say "Show me you Moderate Papers!".  haha.  Anyway, I've posted quite a bit over at 538 and I don't think I ever took any political position on anything.  Since their going to be changing their format I thought maybe I'd see what the IQ was over here.  The ironic thing is I ran for local office in my town on the Democrat(ic) slate 8 years ago.  It would be funny if the same person that wants to yell me out of the room (Mission Accomplished!) voted for me back then.
[ Parent ]
It's pretty simple
This is a Democratic site. We're always going to be lenient toward the language used by fellow Democrats, and much more wary toward the language used by non-Democrats, especially when particular words or phrases strike well-known triggers.

So, as for using "Democrat" as an adjective -- don't do it.

[ Parent ]
I generally use "Tea Party folks"
or some such, but didn't they proudly call themselves teabaggers until someone pointed out a slang meaning that neither they nor I knew?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
that meaning
is pretty commonly understood among people I know (I'm 20). I'm not sure what the upper age limit is for knowing that word but I guess it makes sense seeing as how the teabaggers tend to be middle-aged and up.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Umm....
You realize that Bachmann is outraising Clark by a significant margin, right? Which means that Team Red is pumping far more money down the Bachmann Hole than Team Blue....

I mean, I realize that Republicans have completely forgotten any concept of Keynesian economics and stuff, but to completely forgo math seems a bit extreme, even for Bachmann....awww, who am I kidding, Michelle Bachmann has no use for science-y concepts like that...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Id imagine most of her money is from small donors
around the country, whose money could be going in cheaper races like AL-2 or something where they could make a big difference.

Im so glad I dont watch tv anymore (thank you internet!) so I dont have to watch a single effing ad if I dont want to.

[ Parent ]
Sure
just as long as you continue spending it in NC-02.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's "Democratic" not "Democrat"
I suppose you need to make comments like that to make yourself feel better about a Republican favorite getting a real challenge.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
My Repubican friend
please continue spending your money in CA-11, CA-18, and CA-47.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
No, no, no.
It's "My Republic friend".

If he wants to play games and shorten the adjective, then I suggest we do the same right back.

[ Parent ]
I prefer "Publican" to "Republic"
If you remove the "re" at the beginning instead of the "an" at the end of Republican, then you get the word Publican, which was a pejorative word for a tax collector during Roman times.
[ Parent ]
bad news for Bachman

From republican friendly Survey USA.

They tell Terrill Clark is only a little worse than Jerry Brown.

[ Parent ]
Those are good starting off numbers
That Indy percent worries the shit out of me, but Bachmann really cant be doing any better than she is now.  I think people here are being a bit too pessimistic and a double digit loss I think is a far-off possibility.  Bachmann may be able to spend a shit ton on ads about how great she is doing fighting Obama and while this is a GOP district where should resonate, that is covered up by her crazy.  

Whatever she is polling at now is going to be her high mark and 48% is a shit place for her to start.  Her ads will do very little as most people are pretty decided about if they can or cannot vote for her.  And Clark is going to nail her with her attack ads day and night.  Clark is not well known, she can only do better from here.  But the fucking Independence Party will most likely ruin it for us.

FYI, this is one district where Bachmann doing well with 18-34 year olds wouldnt be too surprising while Clark does well with older folks.

Does Elwyn have more money he can transfer?  Im sure the DFL would do him a solid.  (Why isnt he running for state house and giving us an easy pick-up in his home district?)

MN-06: Bachmann Leads Clark by 9 | 40 comments

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