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Senate Cattle Call (September 2010)

by: James L.

Sun Sep 12, 2010 at 4:46 PM EDT


It's high time that we dust off our community cattle calls - we haven't put up a thread like this since April. Whoops! But I can assure you that this won't be our last cattle call of the election season.

The traditional rules still apply: In the comments, rank the Senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. Have at it!
James L. :: Senate Cattle Call (September 2010)
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Senate Cattle Call (September 2010) | 68 comments
My predictions on the flippers
PARTIES FLIP
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Kentucky
Illinois
Wisconsin
PARTIES RETAIN
California
Washington
Florida
Nevada
Missouri
Ohio
West Virginia
New Hampshire
Connecticut
Alaska
North Carolina
Louisiana
New York (Gillibrand)
Oregon
Iowa
Georgia
Arizona
Maryland
Kansas
Alabama
Oklahoma
Hawaii
South Carolina
Utah
Idaho
Vermont
New York (Schumer)
South Dakota

 

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

This is a best case scenario
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Kentucky
8. Florida-with Crist
9. Illinois
10. Wisconsin
11. Nevada
12. Missouri
13. Washington
14. California
15. Ohio
16. Alaska
17. North Carolina
18. New Hampshire
19. Connecticut
20. Louisiana
21. West Virginia
22. New York (Gillibrand)
23. Oregon
24. Iowa
25. Georgia
26. Arizona
27. Maryland
28. Utah
29. Kansas
30. Alabama
31. Oklahoma
32. South Carolina
33. Idaho
34. Vermont
35. New York (Schumer)
36. Hawaii
37. South Dakota

21 Male Democrat, TX 13

TX-13,22,Dem

I see ya'll took my suggestion!
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware (Castle wins)
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
8. Nevada
9. Illinois
10. Kentuckey
11. Washington
12. Missouri
13. California
14. Flordia (If Crist caucuses with Dems)
15. West Virginia
16. Ohio
17. Connecticut
18. New Hampshire (if Ayotte wins Tuesday)  
19. Alaska
20. North Carolina
21. Louisiana
22. Iowa
23. Georgia
24. New York (B)
25. Oregon
26. Arizona
27. Utah
28. Idaho
29. Kansas
30. Oklahoma
31. Alabama
32. Maryland
33. New York (A)
34. Vermont
35. Hawaii
36. South Carolina
37. South Dakota
100% accurate, flawless, exciting, spectacular predix
FLIP
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Nevada
8. Illinois
------------
NO FLIP
9. Florida
10. Wisconsin
11. California
12. New Hampshire
13. Washington
14. Ohio
15. Connecticut
16. West Virginia
17. Kentucky
18. Missouri
19. Alaska
20. New York (Gillibrand)
21. North Carolina
22. Louisiana
23. Arizona
24. Oregon
25. Iowa
26. Georgia
27. Maryland
28. Hawaii
29. Kansas
30. Alabama
31. Oklahoma
32. New York (Schumer)
33. Utah
34. Vermont
35. Idaho
36. South Carolina
37. South Dakota

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
What's with
Ohio being above Missouri/Kentucky? Do you think the race should tighten?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
It already has
According to Rasmussen (yes, I know). PPP really needs to poll this race.  
[ Parent ]
Please disregard this post
Either I can't read or my browser is screwy.
[ Parent ]
I think MO/KY are safely in Lean R territory now
I think Blunt and Paul are up by high single-digits. I'm not convinced OH-Sen is any worse than toss-up/Tilt R, though. I suspect Portman's up by about 5.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Sorry, but I don't think you'll be accurate...
On #7. It won't be easy for Harry, but there are too many people here making sure that does NOT happen.

While I also don't think #6 or #8 will flip either, those IMHO are at least much closer calls.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Oh, I do think Reid is ahead by 2-3 points right now
I just think the undecideds (and current third-party supporters) will bolt for Angle in the end. Right now, I see something like a 47-46 Angle win.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Remember, "None of the Above" IS an option...
Along with Scott Ashjian (The Tea Party candidate), Tim Fasano (the Independent American candidate), and 3 independent candidates. Angle's becoming so radioactive (pun intended) that her upside down approval ratings rival Reid's and the NOTA/others vote may very well end up between 7% and 9% of the overall vote total.

And from what I've heard from reliable sources, all the state GOP is really hoping for is that Angle keeps it close so she won't drag down down-ballot R's.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Ok
LONG GONE

1. N DAKOTA
2. ARKANSAS
3. INDIANA
4. PENNSYLVANIA
5. DELAWARE (CASTLE)
6. COLORADO

TOSSUP

7. WISCONSIN
8. WASHINGTON
9. NEVADA
10. CALIFORNIA
11. FLORIDA

LEAN/LIKELY RETAIN

12. NEW HAMPSHIRE (AYOTTE OR BINNIE)
13. W VIRGINIA
14. N CAROLINA
15. OHIO
16. MISSOURI
17. KENTUCKY
18. CONNECTICUT
19. ALASKA
20. LOUISIANA
21. NEW YORK (GILLIBRAND)
22. ARIZONA

First with a difference in the top 5
I might move Pennsylvania to Number 4 and Delaware to Number 5 if Castle comes out of this bloodied.  If he loses, Delaware slips 10 or 12 spots.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
How I See It...
Likely:

North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana

Leaning:

Delaware (depends on the primary)

Tossup:

Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Illinois
Washington

Leaning Retention:

Missouri
North Carolina
California
Nevada
New Hampshire (depends on the primary)
Alaska

Likely Retention:

Louisiana
Connecticut
West Virginia

Everything else looks safe...



Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Btw, sorry about forgetting Wisconsin...
Add it to Leaning Retention right above Missouri!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Another btw, I'm having a hard time...
Making a hard call on some of the Tossups (duh), but if I had to draw the line on Flips/Holds, it'd probably fall right after Pennsylvania, and I'm still having a hard time calling Kentucky. From Ohio to Washington, consider it "Tossup/Tilt Retention". But of course, seasons change and there's a reason all of those are in "Tossup"... ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Here's my list.
I know this list will likely be way different than everyone else's, and some of you may call this list crazy, but this is what I see when going a unique way and applying "localization, localization, localization" to the races and seeing which candidates are localizing their races. And of course my predictions are subject to change, between now and November 1.

SEAT FLIPS
TIER I - GONERS
(1) North Dakota
(2) Arkansas
(3) Delaware (special) - may move into more competitive status depending on the primary

TIER II - WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT
(4) Missouri
(5) Kentucky
(6) Louisiana
(7) North Carolina
(8) Pennsylvania
(9) Ohio
(10) Florida (yes, even with Meek)
(11) Alaska
(12) Illinois

SEAT HOLDS
TIER I - MOST COMPETITIVE
(13) California
(14) Wisconsin
(15) Washington
(16) Indiana
(17) Nevada
(18) New Hampshire
(19) Colorado
(20) Connecticut

TIER II - RACES TO WATCH
(21) Arizona
(22) Georgia
(23) New York (Gillibrand)
(24) West Virginia (special)
(25) Iowa

TIER III - NO CONTESTS
(26) Kansas
(27) Oklahoma
(28) South Carolina
(29) Maryland
(30) Oregon
(31) Utah
(32) Vermont
(33) New York (Schumer)
(34) Alabama
(35) Hawaii
(36) Idaho
(37) South Dakota

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

No way do we hold Indiana while losing Illinois
Coats is leading Ellsworth by double digits, while (except for Rasmussen) Giannoulias is either leading Kirk by a couple of points or is tied.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Agreed. I'd personally reverse...
(See my list. Illinois is Tossup, but Tossup/Tilt D Hold. Indiana just isn't looking good.)

However, this is CiT's list and perhaps she is calling it as she sees it. To be fair, none of us knows for sure what will happen in a few short weeks...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Oh I know, and given my criticisms I should really post my list
I'm just feeling incredibly lazy right now! :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Just do what I did above...
I also felt too lazy to do a full list, so I just listed the competitive seats (and added a caveat on the Tossups, to hedge my bets just a little). ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I'm probably just going to link to my race rankings
Then just say which toss-ups I think are going to go in which direction. Oh and I'm going to add a margin of error of +/-10 seats :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Here are my post-primary revisions.
SEAT FLIPS
TIER I - GONERS
(1) North Dakota
(2) Arkansas

TIER II - WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT
(3) Missouri
(4) Kentucky
(5) Louisiana
(6) North Carolina
(7) Pennsylvania
(8) Ohio
(9) Florida (yes, even with Meek)
(10) Alaska
(11) Illinois

SEAT HOLDS
TIER I - MOST COMPETITIVE
(12) California
(13) Wisconsin
(14) Washington
(15) Indiana
(16) Nevada
(17) Colorado
(18) Connecticut
(19) Delaware (special)

TIER II - RACES TO WATCH
(20) Arizona
(21) Georgia
(22) New Hampshire
(23) New York (Gillibrand)
(24) West Virginia (special)
(25) Iowa

TIER III - NO CONTESTS
(26) Kansas
(27) Oklahoma
(28) South Carolina
(29) Maryland
(30) Oregon
(31) Utah
(32) Vermont
(33) New York (Schumer)
(34) Alabama
(35) Hawaii
(36) Idaho
(37) South Dakota

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
pickups
ND
AR
IN
DE
PA
Tossup/Tilt Pickup
WI
Tossup/Tilt Hold:
IL
CO
KY
CA
Hold:
NV
WA
FL
AK
CT
MO
LA
OH
NC
NH


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
Forgot WV
between MO and LA.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
No ya'll, like this actually...
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
North Dakota
Indiana
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin
California
Illinois
Florida
Washington  
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
Missouri
Ohio
West Virginia  
Connecticut
Louisiana

Now doesn't that look a lot better?

34, M, TX-5, Left-Dem

North Dakota twice???
Do you know something I don't?  Is Conrad leaving his seat early, or did you have a typo?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
So likely to flip, it needs to be listed twice!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It's the mustache
Hoeven's mustache is so awesome that it'll just beat Conrad before he's even up!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Its a clue
if you sing the list of states, you can tell which music I'm listening to. Which gives the code to my underground lair in the 3rd verse. And then the key to my Bauxite reserves. And finally the ultimate bee-keeping device.

Duh.

[ Parent ]
Also.
South North Dakota is going to secede from North Dakota proper. Which will then hold a special election, the winner of which will retire, and be replaced by the opposite party. Which will lead to my underground lair
[ Parent ]
StochasticDemocracy's projections
so this is not my list, but my model's :)
Those numbers are more recent than the ones in the diary, btw. We haven't put the update up yet because we're still working out some more fun stuff, but we'll release the final version of the model within the next few days.

State--- Probability of Switch

ND 100
AR 99.986
IN 99.672
PA 91.651
CO 73.561
DE      71.411
IL 58.599
WA 37.709
WI 29.06
FL 24.45
CA 23.847
NH      22.235
NV 20.591
NC 7.528
OH 7.521
MO 4.73
KY 3.626
AK 3.473
CT 2.695
WV 1.581
LA 0.325
OR 0.272
GA 0.261
IA 0.211
MD 0.16
NYB 0.11
AZ 0.078
NYA 0.05
VT 0.044
AL 0.019
UT 0.015
HI 0.001
ID 0.001
KS 0.001
OKB 0.001
SC 0

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

I posted a diary on this yesterday
 And I am sticking with the same likelihood rankings as before. Here goes:

Switch:

1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware (Castle)
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado

Retain:

7. Illinois
8. Florida
9. Washington
10. Kentucky
11. Nevada
12. Missouri
13. Ohio
14. California
15. New Hampshire
16. North Carolina
17. Louisiana
18. Georgia
19. Arizona
20. Iowa

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

List
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Illinois
8. Nevada
9. Wisconsin
10. Washington
11. California
12. West Virginia
13. Connecticut

I don't see any of the Republican-held seats being competitive at this point. If Ovide wins in New Hampshire, I'd put that around 9 or 10.

Yay My Turn
Flippers
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania

Retain
6. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
8. Kentucky
9. Illinois
10. Nevada
11. California
12. Missouri
13. Washington
14. Ohio- WTF is going on here??? Rob Portman, really?????
15. Florida
16. New Hampshire
17. North Carolina
18. Louisiana
19. Connecticut
20. Iowa

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

...
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware  (drops of list if O'Donnel wins)
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Illinois  
California
Wisconsin  
Nevada
Florida
Washington  
Kentucky
Missouri
North Carolina  
Ohio
New Hampshire (number 6 if Not Ayote or Binnie)
Alaska

 

I will give it my best
In order of likelihood of switching.

1 North Dakota
2 Arkansas
3 Delaware (Castle)
4 Indiana
5 Pennsylvania
6 Colorado
7 Illinois
8 Wisconsin
9 California
10 Nevada
11 Washington
12 Connecticut
13 West Virginia
14 Kentucky
15 Florida
16 New Hampshire (W/O Ovide)
17 Louisiana
18 New York (Special)
19 Alaska
20 North Carolina
21 Ohio
22 Oregon
23 Missouri
24 Iowa
25 Georgia
26 Maryland
27 Arizona
28 Utah
29 Alabama
30 New York
31 Oklahoma
32 Kansas
33 Hawaii
34 Vermont
35 Idaho
36 South Carolina
37 South Dakota


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

This list...
Is the best one I've seen.  I agree 100%.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Thanks nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
do you think West Virginia is more likely to flip than
Kentucky and Oregon is more likely to flip than Missouri?  pretty pessimistic
[ Parent ]
At
the current moment yes. Things can and will likely change. I expect KY to move up the list. Not so much Missouri though, Blunt is a better candidate than Paul.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
yes but is he a better candidate than Ron Wyden?

[ Parent ]
Fair Point nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Pretty good list, I disagree with two or three things-
Oregon more likely to flip than Missouri? If Huffman hasn't been within single digits yet in this climate, he won't get there either.

Second, I don't know why you have Gillibrand's seat so high up in the list. I don't see her seat much more likely to flip than Schumer's, I'd put her to 26 or so.

I'd also put NC higher up on the list, certainly higher than Alaska and Louisiana, probably in the same tier as CT, KY and WV.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Yeah
your second comment about that. I am not sure. Do not get me wrong I think Wyden is heavily favored and have no doubt he will win but I think it will be closer than most predict do to the gubernatorial coattails plus his numbers have been pretty dry around 50. Though I am probably being paranoid so switch Missouri and New York, I think that makes more sense. Plus I think Missouri will be closer than Ohio.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
As Of September 12
Flips
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware (Assuming Castle)
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin

Total 7 R Pickups, 0 Dems

I am not sure
where to rank DE as Castle is starting to look like a guy who has not had a close race in 20 years.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
I'm not either
I think he will beat O'Donnell quite easily.  But both his rust as a campaigner plus at least some conservative disillusionment with Castle and the GOP establishment will make this race a lot more iffy than it had to be.  Ending the primary with the GOP establishment making an all out attack on O'Donnell was not the path I think Castle had in mind.

I was tempted to move DE below PA, but I'll wait until the primary results to make that call.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
13 predictors
have the same states (North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Colorado) going down.

Colorado??

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

PPP is the only pollster who has shown a Bennet lead in months
and their last poll was from when they were still doing registered voters.
[ Parent ]
A POS poll
had Bennet up by 3 last week...

This race really needs to be polled more.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Agreed. And btw, I consider Colorado...
More of a Tossup/Tilt D Hold. But then again, that's jusy moi. And from what I've seen, I think Bennet's campaign has what it takes to torpedo Buck.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Shoot, I didn't realize that Blanche Lincoln beat Boozman's brother in '98
How's that for sad irony

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Oh, here's the link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

Apparently he died too (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fay_Boozman)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Damn it
I meant to post that in the open thread. Sorry David and James and everyone else! I await the torture!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
This all changes if there's upsets in DE/NH
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
8. Illinois
9. Washington
10. Nevada
11. California
12. Kentucky
13. West Virginia
14. Florida
15. Connecticut
16. New Hampshire
17. Missouri
18. North Carolina
19. Alaska
20. Ohio
21. Louisiana
22. Georgia
23. Arizona
24. New York Special
25. Oregon
26. Iowa
27. Maryland
28. Kansas
29. Utah
30. Alabama
31. Hawaii
32. New York
33. Idaho
34. Oklahoma
35. South Carolina
36. Vermont
37. South Dakota

If O'Donnell wins, Delaware drops to #18. If Lamontagne wins, New Hampshire moves up to #5.

Remember when we all had Missouri at number 1? The strangest thing about that is that absolutely nothing has changed with regards to that race--it's been exactly the same since February of '09.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Let's see
1. ND
2. AR
3. DE
4. PA
5. KY
6. CO
7. IN
8. MO
9. NV
10. IL
11. FL
12. NC
13. OH
14. WA
15. WI
16. LA
17. CA
18. IA
19. CT
20. WV
oh and I left out Alaska
because I have no idea how that'd shake out so I spose just slap it on the end as #21 for now
[ Parent ]
How I see it
1. ND
2. AR
3. IN
4. PA
5. CO
6. DE
7. IL
8. WI
9. WA
10. NH
11. CA
12. FL
13. KY
14. OH
15. NC
16. MO
17. WV
18. AK
19. CT
20. LA
21. GA
22. AZ
23. NY-B
24. IA
25. OR
26. MD
27. UT
28. AL
29. NY-A
30. VT
31. KS
32. ID
33. SC
34. HI (More likely that Alvin Greene wins)
35. SD

I wasn't really surprised by the Delaware poll with O' Donnell ahead. I already had it being less likely to flip than Pennsylvania and I later moved it below Colorado after seeing the poll. To me, there were several "clusters" that were difficult to organize: #8-11, #12-16, #17-19, and #20-24.

Radical or something, WA-07

Is there a way I can delete this?
If not, add NV after IL and OK after ID.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
Here's my list
These lists are super fun, thanks for putting this thread up!  Here's mine:

1.  North Dakota
2.  Arkansas
3.  Indiana
4.  Pennsylvania
5.  Nevada
6.  Delaware (Castle)
7.  Colorado
8.  Delaware (O'Donnell)
9.  California
10. Connecticut
11. Wisconsin
12. Illinois
13. Washington
14. Florida
15. West Virginia
16. New York (Gillibrand)
17. Louisiana
18. Ohio
19. Oregon
20. New Hampshire
21. Missouri
22. Georgia
23. Alaska
24. New York (Schumer)
25. Kentucky
26. North Carolina
27. Hawaii
28. Maryland
29. Vermont
30. Arizona
31. Iowa
32. Utah
33. Kansas
34. Idaho
35. South Dakota
36. Oklahoma
37. Alabama
38. South Carolina

I have 38 instead of 37 because I did Delaware twice, once for Castle and once for O'Donnell.              

Really?
I had a few odd rankings so I should not be one to judge but you are really giving too much credit to O'Donnell. This thing is likely D with her as the nominee. She would not even make it in the top twenty of my list.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Here we go
N. Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Illinois
New Hampshire
Kentucky
Ohio
Missouri
Florida
N. Carolina
Alaska

I predict holds in all other seats including DE (provided Castle loses primary) PA, WI, CA, NV, WA


My list
Pickups
01 North Dakota
02 Arkansas
03 Indiana
04 Delaware
05 Pennsylvania
06 Colorado
Tossups
07 Illinois
08 Nevada
09= California
09= Washington
Retentions
11 Wisconsin
12 Florida
13 Missouri
14 New Hampshire
15 Ohio
16 Kentucky
17 West Virginia
18 Connecticut
19 North Carolina
20 Alaska
21 Louisiana
22 Oregon
23 Iowa
24 New York (Gillibrand)
25 Georgia
26 Arizona
27 New York (Schumer)
28 Maryland
29 Kansas
30 Hawaii
31 Oklahoma
32 Utah
33 Vermont
34 Idaho
35 Alabama
36 South Carolina
37 South Dakota
The usual
1. North Dakota (duh)
2. Arkansas (double duh)  
3. Indiana (I've seen 3 Ellsworth bumper stickers in the past month in Indianapolis, up from 1 a month ago. Coats will still win, but it'll be closer than expected.)
4. Pennsylvania (Sestak is waiting too long to attack.)
5. Florida (Crist screws everything up now that Meek's won the primary. Meek is an anchor for black D's and an increasing number of white ones. Rubio with 40%.)
6. Colorado (true tossup in a mega-polarized state. Bennet has money but no real favorables. Buck is a gaffe machine but Colorado Republicans don't care. Turnout for Hickenlooper may actually decide Bennet's fate.)
7. Kentucky (first R race on the list, true tossup)
8. Alaska (might be too early to call, tossup for now).
9. Illinois (I think we hold this one, but it'll be close.)
10. Nevada (More optimistic about Reid than I was last week.)
11. Wisconsin (everyone's looking at Boxer, but I think Feingold's more vulnerable this year.)
12. California (Boxer always shows better than she polls)
14. New Hampshire (This one could be a sleeper).
15. Washington (It'll be closer than it should be, but there's no way in hell Dino Rossi ever wins a statewide race in Washington. None.)
16. Missouri (Carnahan has a better chance than Fisher)
17. Ohio (See above)
18. Louisiana (They don't mind adulterers in Louisiana)
19. Connecticut (Blumenthal has a glass jaw, but McMahon has an even larger one.)
20. Arizona (McCain still makes the top 20, just in case there's some Latino turnout record to vote against Brewer and he gets swept out, too, but the chances of that are low.)
21. Georgia (Right Dem, wrong year)
22. Iowa (Ditto)
23. New York-B (Gillibrand under 50, but R's all suck)
24. West Virginia (Manchin too popular)  
25. Oregon (Not even Ras seriously believes its own hype here.)

Below 25 (no chance in hell of switching):

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maryland, New York-A, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont

TBD: Delaware. With Castle, it's at 4. Without Castle, it's somewhere around 23.  

Late to the party
So I will refrain until after tomorrow night.
Here's a list, ranked objectively
by pollster.com polling average.  Flips in blue.  I don't think we'll have a realistic Senate picture until election day.  There are still 7 true tossups out there, which leaves Republicans with a legitimate range anywhere from 4 to 11 seats.  That is in contrast with the governor's races, which are emerging pretty clearly with few true tossups anymore (looks like Republicans will pick up about 8 guvs according to current polling).

1. North Dakota R+46
2. Arkansas R+23
3. Indiana R+19
4. Pennsylvania R+7
5. Colorado R+3
6. Wisconsin R+1
7. Illinois D+0
8. Nevada D+1
9. California D+1
10. Washington D+3
11. West Virginia D+3
12. Missouri R+7
13. North Carolina R+7
14. Connecticut D+8
15. Ohio R+8
16. Kentucky R+8
17. New Hampshire R+9
18. Florida R+9
19. Alaska R+10
20. Louisiana R+14
21. Delaware D+14
22. Georgia R+16
23. Arizona R+17
24. Oregon D+20
25. Iowa R+20
26. New York (B) D+22
27. Maryland D+24
28. Utah R+25
29. New York (A) D+29
30. Vermont D+30
31. Alabama R+32
32. Idaho R+39
33. Kansas R+40
34. Oklahoma R+43
35. South Carolina R+44
36. Hawaii D+48
37. South Dakota R+100

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Last but not least
After the results of the DE, NH, NY, WI primaries were known:

Safe Takeover (>95%)
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas

Likely Takeover (80-95%)
3. Indiana

Lean Takeover (60-80%)
4. Pennsylvania

Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)
5. Illinois

Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)
6. Colorado
7. Nevada
8. Wisconsin

Lean Retention (20-40%)
9. Kentucky
10. Washington
11. Missouri
12. California
13. New Hampshire
14. North Carolina
15. Ohio
16. Florida

Likely Retention (5-20%)
17. Connecticut
18. Alaska
19. West Virginia
20. Louisiana

Safe Retention (<5%)
AL, AZ, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, KS, MD, NY, NY', OK, OR, SC, SD, UT, VT (no particular order)

Senate Cattle Call (September 2010) | 68 comments

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