It’s time we got back in the habit of doing community cattle calls – we haven’t done one for the Senate in a year. Click that link to see how much things have changed since then.
In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s senate race ratings. Have fun!
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Nevada
4. Arkansas
5. Colorado
6. Pennsylvania
7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. California
10. Missouri
11. Ohio
12. New Hampshire
13. Washington
14. Wisconsin
15. Kentucky
16. North Carolina
17. Connecticut
18-34. The rest (all safe, not going to bother ranking them)
I’m forecasting a R+8 pickup at this point. Better hope things get better over the next six months.
Likelihood of flipping:
North Dakota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Missouri
Ohio
Delaware
North Carolina
Illinois
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Florida
Arkansas (assuming Halter is the nominee)
Indiana
Louisiana
California
Iowa
Washington
And the rest:
Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho, Maryland, New York (both), Oregon, Wisconsin, Utah, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Likelihood of Retiring Democratic Senators giving the DSCC (or other party entities their war chests):
Dodd (sitting on about 3.4 million)
Dorgan (sitting on about 3 million; was 4.2 million, says he refunded 1 million to donors and gave the DSCC $260,000)
Bayh (given 1 million, 13 to go)
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
North Dakota
Arkansas
Delaware
Indiana
Nevada
Missouri
Colorado
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Hampshire
Kentucky
Florida
North Carolina
Louisiana
California
Washington
Iowa
Wisconsin
North Dakota
Delaware
Arkansas
Nevada
Missouri
Illinois
Indiana
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Hampshire
Kentucky
Florida
North Carolina
California
Wisconsin
Washington
Connecticut
Wow, this list is pretty damn different from what I’d put a year ago…
I’d say that as it stands, Republicans pick up 3-4 senate seats subject to changing environment (a bit better and it’s more like 1-2, a bit worse and it’s 5-6)
1. North Dakota
2. Nevada
3. Delaware
4. Ohio
5. Arkansas
6. MIssouri
7. New Hampshire
8. North Carolina
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. Kentucky
12. Florida
13. Indiana
14. Louisiana
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
6. Pennsylvania
7. Indiana
8. Missouri
9. Illinois (I’d say this is the narrowest pickup, all below stay with incumbent party)
10. Ohio
11. California
12. New Hampshire
13. Florida
14. Kentucky
15. Wisconsin (With the NRCC’s recruiting successes, you can’t rule Thompson out quite yet)
16. New York (ditto)
17. Washington (Rossi or not, Murray should still coast)
18. Arizona
19. Louisiana
20. Connecticut
21. Georgia
I think that 22-36 are more or less interchangeable, though if I had to guess, I’d call Pat Leahy the safest incumbent of 2010
1. North Dakota – Who is running against Hoeven again? The answer doesn’t really matter
2. Delaware – Castle is an institution
3. Arkansas – The winner of the Democratic primary gets the honor of being 2nd place in the fall
4. Nevada – Just another Reid in the wind
5. Colorado – The first one that isn’t a slam dunk
6. Indiana – Ellsworth is a good fit for the state but I think HCR vote may doom him. Interesting question is who is the worst GOP nominee? Coats- a lobbyist, Hostettler – a crazy, or Stutzman – some dude who can’t raise money
7. Pennsylvania – It will be interesting to see if Toomey tries to portray himself as more moderate as the election approaches
8. Ohio- I know the polls currently say this is closer but I’m ranking it low due to: A. the nature of the cycle and B. CoH monster that Portman is at $7.6M!!!
9. Illinois- What an awful Democratic Primary in Illinois
10. Missouri- Any other election cycle Blunt probably loses
11. Kentucky- Will move up if Rand Paul wins Rep primary
12. New Hampshire- Ayotte has been ahead in pretty much every poll
13. California- I would move up if I thought Campbell had a better shot of winning the primary, Carly = Demonsheep fail
1. North Dakota
2. Nevada
3. Arkansas
4. Delaware
5. Indiana
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. Illinois
9. California
10. Missouri
11. Ohio
12. New Hampshire
13. Kentucky
14. North Carolina
15. Florida
16. Washington
17. Wisconsin
18. New York (B)
19. Louisiana
20. Arizona
21. Connecticut
22. Iowa
23. Hawaii
24. Oregon
25. Maryland
26. New York (A)
27. Vermont
28. South Carolina
29. Georgia
30. Alaska
31. Utah
32. Kansas
33. Oklahoma
34. Alabama
35. Idaho
36. South Dakota
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Nevada
4. Missouri
5. Ohio
6. New Hampshire
7. Delaware
8. North Carolina
9. Colorado
10. Illinois
11. California
12. Pennsylvania
13. Kentucky
14. Wisconsin
15. Washington
16. New York-B
17. Arizona
18. Florida
1. Nevada (Likely GOP)
2. Arkansas (Likely GOP)
3. Delaware (Likely GOP)
4. Illinois (Lean GOP)
5. Colorado (Lean GOP)
6. California (Toss-up)
7. Pennsylvania (Toss-up)
8. Missouri (Toss-up)
9. New Hampshire (Toss-up)
10. Ohio (Toss-up)
11. Kentucky (Lean GOP)
12. Indiana (Lean Dem)
13. Wisconsin (Lean Dem)
14. Washington (Likely Dem)
15. North Carolina (Likely GOP)
16. Connecticut (Likely Dem)
17. Florida (Likely GOP)
18. New York (B) (Likely Dem)
19. Arizona (Likely GOP)
20. Louisiana (Likely GOP)
21. The rest
1. North Dakota- Unless Hoeven gets caught with his pants down we can kiss this seat goodbye.
2. Delaware- Castle is liked by too many, although I still have hope Coons could pull it through.
3. Nevada- Reid is very unpopular, and he has a very tough road ahead of him.
4. Arkansas- Lincoln will be lucky to make it to the general. She is toxic; I can’t see us keeping this seat.
5. Illinois- Alexi Giannoulias was the wrong choice. His ethical issues will severely hurt him, plus the republicans have a squeaky clean moderate up against him. This will be tough, really tough.
6. Colorado- Meh, Bennet or Romanoff could pull it off, but it will be difficult in this environment.
7. Pennsylvania- Look Specter will face the toughest fight of his career, but in the end he will unite the base and independents will be turned off by far right Toomey.
8. Indiana- I’m a little biased here, but I honestly believe we will have an easier path here than some others. The Republicans have lesser candidates, while we have a great one. Obviously tough, but we will keep this seat.
9. Missouri- We have a great candidate, but the environment will be tough. We could win, but don’t count on it.
10. Ohio- Same boat as Missouri, the environment will hurt us. It could be picked up, but it will be a very difficult thing to do.
11. California- Let’s hope Boxer can live up to her name. She will have to fight, but she will pull through. Let’s hope Failorina can beat Campbell.
12. New Hampshire- The environment will be tough on this one. We could win but it will be hard. If Binnie wins the primary I would definitely bump this up a lot.
13. Kentucky- Sad to say but we will not win this one. Even with Paul as the nominee, I can’t see how team blue wins here.
14. New York (special) – Kirsten Gillibrand will have no trouble winning against token opposition. If Pataki gets in I would move it up, however I seriously doubt that happens.
15. North Carolina- In a different environment this would be a great pickup opportunity, however this seat will probably break its party switching curse this cycle.
16. Louisiana- Sigh, we should be able to get this seat, however for some reason the people of the state seem to like Vitter despite his scandals.
17. Connecticut- Thank you Chris Dodd! We will have no trouble retaining this seat.
Now if the R’s get there top tiers in Wisconsin and Washington, I would add them to the list. I see us losing between 5-8 seats overall, however we still have some time to improve.
Here goes
1.North Dakota
2.Arkansas
3.Deleware
4.Indiana
5.Nevada
6.Colorado
7.Pennsylvania
8.Illinois
9.New Hampshire
10.Ohio
11.Missouri
12.California
13.Florida
14.North Carolina
15.Kentucky
16.Wisconsin
17.Washington
18.New York
19.Arizona
20.Louisiana
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Colorado
5. Missouri
6. New Hampshire
7. Ohio
8. Nevada
9. Pennsylvania
10. Indiana
I am expecting a better environment come November at this point, but one that will still lead to mixed results. Indiana in last? Yep. I think at his point Ellsworth, with his very strong conservative credentials, will be able to overcome either of the variously damaged Coats or Hostettler; Ellsworth is simply IMO a far superior candidate.
1. North Dakota (D-OPEN)
2. Delaware (D-OPEN)
3. Arkansas (D)
4. Nevada (D)
5. Indiana (D-OPEN)
6. Colorado (D)
7. Pennsylvania (D)
8. Illinois (D-OPEN)
9. Ohio (R-OPEN)
10. Missouri (R-OPEN)
11. California (D)
12. New Hampshire (R-OPEN)
13. Kentucky (R-OPEN)
14. Florida (R-OPEN)
15. North Carolina (R)
16. Wisconsin (D)
17. Washington (D)
18. Connecticut (D-OPEN)
19. Louisiana (R)
20. New York (D-Gillibrand)
21. Iowa (R)
22. Kansas (R-OPEN)
23. Georgia (R)
24. Arizona (R)
25. South Carolina (R)
26. Oregon (D)
27. Utah (R)
28. Oklahoma (R)
29. Maryland (D)
30. Alaska (R)
31. Vermont (D)
32. Alabama (R)
33. Hawaii (D)
34. New York (D-Schumer)
35. Idaho (R)
36. South Dakota (R)
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Delaware
4. Nevada
5. Missouri
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. Indiana
9. Ohio
10. Illinois
11. Florida
12. New Hampshire
13. Kentucky
14. North Carolina
15. California
16. Louisiana
17. Iowa
18. New York Sen B
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Indiana
5. Missouri
6. Ohio
7. Nevada
8. New Hampshire
9. California
10. Pennsylvania
11. Kentucky
12. Illinois
13. Colorado
14. North Carolina
15. Wisconsin
1. North Dakota (Hoeven)
2. Nevada (Lowden)
3. Delaware (Castle)
4. Arkansas (Boozman)
5. Missouri (Carnahan)
6. Colorado (Norton)
7. Illinois (Kirk)
8. Ohio (Fisher/Brenner)
9. Indiana (Coats/Hostettler)
10. Pennsylvania (Toomey)
11. New Hampshire (Hodes)
12. California (Campbell/Carly Dreamin’)
13. Florida (Meek)
14. Kentucky (Mongiardo/Conway)
15. North Carolina (Cunningham/Marshall/Lewis/Generic Democrat)
16. Louisiana (Melancon)
17. Arizona (Glassman)
18. Washington (Benton)
19. Wisconsin (Wall/Westlake)
20. New York–Gillibrand (DioGuardi/Blakeman/Malpass)
21. Iowa (Conlin)
22. Connecticut
23. Georgia
24. South Carolina
25. Kansas
26. Oregon
27. Utah
28. New York–Schumer
29. Idaho
30. Vermont
31. Oklahoma
32. Hawaii
33. Alabama
34. Maryland
35. Alaska
36. South Dakota
1. ND Safe R
2. DE Likely R
3. AR Likely R
4. NV Lean R
5. OH Tossup
6. IL Tossup
7. CO Tossup
8. MO Tossup
9. IN Tossup/Tilt D
10. PA Tossup/Tilt D
11. NH Lean R
12. CA Lean D
13. NC Likely R
14. KY Likely R
15. FL Likely R
16. WA Likely D
17. WI Likely D
18. LA Likely R
19. IA Race to Watch
20. NY-B Race to Watch
Democrats lose (net) 5 seats in November.
Tier-1 (from likely to strong lean)
1. North Dakota (gone)
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Nevada
5. Indiana
Tier-2 (from slight lean pick up to toss up)
6.Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8.Ohio
9. Illinois
10. Missouri
11. New Hampshire
Tier-3 (from slight lean retention to strong lean retention)
12. California
13. Wisconsin
14. Kentucky
15. North Carolina
16. Washington
17. Florida
The rest are, for now, safe.
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Delaware
4. Nevada
5. Illinois
6. Indiana
7. Pennsylvania
8. Colorado
9. Missouri
10. Ohio
11. California
12. North Carolina
13. New Hampshire
14. Florida
15. Kentucky
16. Wisconsin
17. Louisiana
18. Arizona
19. Iowa
That’s about it, and 17-19 all have the possibility of dropping off the board.
1. ND (open) – Silver has this one at 100% chance of flipping, and that sounds about right to me.
2. DE (open) – Could be a repeat of the 2000 Senate race, but in this climate it’s pretty unlikely.
3. IL (open) – Candidate epic fail. They have their best recruit. We have Giannoulias. Quinn’s troubles on the top of the ticket will not help, nor will the IL Dems’ complete bungling of the primary.
4. NV (Reid) – Reid is toast. Next.
5. CO (Bennett) – Never been elected obscure establishment guy from the big city in an incredibly polarized Mountain West state where our base will stay home and their base won’t. Gee, I’m thinking we lose this one.
6. AR (open/Lincoln primaried) – If Lincoln wins the primary, this will rocket up to the top with North Dakota. Halter’s about the only Dem who can hold this seat and I think he’ll win the primary easily, so I’m being optimistic.
7. CA (Boxer) – Boxer’s a three-term incumbent, but she’s never won with more than high fifties, half of the electorate hates her, and the half that doesn’t might not show up this year. I know she always polls badly in this part of the cycle, but she can only dodge that bullet so many times. Bad feeling about this one.
8. PA (Specter) – One party switch too many in a state where neither party has much use for moderates not named Casey.
9. OH (open) – Fisher may be a meh candidate, but I don’t see Ohio electing a guy who used to work for Bush in the middle of the worst recession in 80 years.
10. MO (open) – Like every race in Missouri, this is about a 55/45 split for the GOP.
11. FL (open) – Candidate fail. Unless the FL GOP continues its collapse over the education issue, in which case even Meek might be competitive. Crossing fingers, moving on.
12. IN (open) – Once people figure out that Hostettler is a lunatic and Ellsworth is their kind of guy, Ellsworth will win. Still, it’s an open seat, so I have to keep it in the top tier.
13. NH (open) – Not quite sure what’s going on here, so the ranking is arbitrary.
14. KY (open) – Once again, candidate fail. This would be a strong pickup opportunity if not for Mongiardo.
15. NC (Burr) – the biggest missed opportunity of the cycle for Dems.
16. WI (Feingold) – You can try to get rid of Boxer, Feingold, and Murray in the same cycle, but you’ll only get Boxer – if you’re lucky. Feingold will be fine.
17. WA (Murray) – Ditto. Even if Rossi entered the race, he has high negatives and WA voters are sick of him. Plus, he’s not interested. Eat it, Rasmussen.
18. IA (Grassley) – The biggest wildcard of the cycle, but much as I’d love to see it happen, it probably won’t.
Tier 3 (Slim chance of flipping):
AZ (McCain) – even in the unlikely event of McCain being primaried by Hayworth, Glassman hasn’t got the organization to win in a bad year, in a state that’s never been particularly good to Dems to begin with.
CT (open) – only here because it’s open. In reality, Blumenthal takes this one off the board.
GA (Isakson) – weak showing from Isakson in polling, but he’s not going to lose. Those polls really speak more to the fact that Chambliss could be taken out by a southern populist in a better year for Dems.
KS (open) – only because it’s open.
LA (Vitter) – same as Isakson. These 2004 Bush tide incumbents would be toast if they didn’t represent solidly Republican states, but they do, so they’ll be fine.
NY-B (Gillibrand) – only here because she’s never been elected before. No way this seat flips.
SC (DeMint) – see Isakson and Vitter. Not polling as well as you’d expect, but still well over 50%. I’m still waiting for him to KO his own political career with a run for something bigger.
Tier 4 (No chance whatsoever of flipping):
AL (Shelby)
AK (Murkowski)
HI (Inouye) – Inouye will die before he loses this seat.
ID (Crapo)
MD (Mikulski) – here’s hoping she lives to be 100.
NY-A (Schumer)
OK (Coburn)
OR (Wyden)
SD (Thune)
UT (Bennett) – will probably be primaried, but the seat is safe.
VT (Leahy)
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Nevada
5. Indiana
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. Illinois
9. New Hampshire
10. Missouri
11. Ohio
12. Kentucky
13. Florida
14. California
15. North Carolina
16. Wisconsin
17. Washington
18. New York-B (Gillibrand)
The rest are safe.
1. North Dakota (Open)
2. Arkansas (Lincoln)
3. Delaware (Open)
4. Nevada (Reid)
5. Missouri (Open)
6. Colorado (Bennet)
7. Ohio (Open)
8. Pennsylvania (Specter)
9. Illinois (Open)
10. Indiana (Open)
11. New Hampshire (Open)
12. Kentucky (Open)
13. North Carolina (Burr)
14. Florida (Open)
15. California (Boxer)
16. Louisiana (Vitter)
1 Open (D-ND)
2 Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
3 Harry Reid (D-NV)
4 Open (D-DE)
5 Arlen Specter (D-PA)
6 Open (D-IN)
7 Open (D-IL)
8 Michael Bennet (D-CO)
9 Open (R-OH)
10 Open (R-MO)
11 Open (R-NH)
12 Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
13 Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
14 Richard Burr (R-NC)
15 Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
16 Russ Feingold (D-WI)
17 Ron Wyden (D-OR)
18 Patty Murray (D-WA)
19 David Vitter (R-LA)
20 John McCain (R-AZ)
21 Open (R-KY)
22 Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
23 Open (R-FL)
24 Open (D-CT)
25 Open (R-KS)
26 Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
27 Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
28 Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
29 Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
30 Richard Shelby (R-AL)
31 Daniel Inouye (D-HI)
32 Mike Crapo (R-ID)
33 Bob Bennett (R-UT)
34 Jim DeMint (R-SC)
35 Tom Coburn (R-OK)
36 John Thune (R-SD)
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
6. Illinois
7. Pennsylvania
8. Indiana
9. California
10. Missouri
11. Ohio
12. New Hampshire
13. Wisconsin
14. Washington
15. North Carolina
16. Kentucky
17. New York-B
18. Florida
19. Louisiana
20. Arizona
1.North Dakota – No doubter. Gone. Hoeven gets it easily.
2.Nevada – That’s right, Nevada. Reid is unpopular as they come, he’s got no chance no matter how much $ he plans on spending. Having Rory on the ticket for Gov is a killer too
3.Arkansas – Blanche is a non-starter at this point, and Halter is probably too liberal to win statewide. This state will probably be a safe GOP stronghold a decade from now the way it’s moving.
4.Delaware – I could actually see Coons pulling the upset here, Castle is between a rock and a hard place with the teabagging crowd, and moderates are souring on him because of his stance against HCR. It’s worth watching.
5.Illinois – Regrettably, this is a perfect storm of the Republicans getting their dream candidate, the Democrats NOT getting theirs, and Team Blue having to go through a pair of killer primaries at the top of the ticket. Ouch.
6.Ohio – This one is a bit of a surprise to me, in that Rob Portman might end up being in the same boat as Harry Reid/John Corzine despite all his money. He’s got no traction, and right now I like Fisher and Brunner, either one, to beat him.
7.Missouri – Another marginally tough state, but one in which the Democrats have an enormous candidate advantage with Robin Carnahan going up against Roy Blunt. You’d think that at some point, Missourians will have to come to their senses on this one.
8.Indiana – Ellsworth is arguably the best candidate in the race, but with the partisan lean of the state in a bad environment, it’s still going to be a tough hold. If Hostettler wins the primary this one drops down the list.
9.Colorado – I’m really not sure what’s going to happen here, both of the primaries look pretty wild in what has essentially become a toss-up state. Heads or tails on this one. Hickenlooper running for Gov strengthens the ticket for Team Blue.
10.California – Barbara Boxer’s favorables are awful, so I could definitely see her going down, especially if Tom Campbell wins the primary because of his relative moderation. Still, the partisan lean of this state is enormously toward the Dems.
11.Florida – I think this is the one race that everybody is overlooking. Everybody is underestimating Kendrick Meek. Behind the scenes I think he’s run a smart campaign and fundraised well. If the Rep primary turns ugly late, this one will be close.
12.Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter doesn’t have the best favorables either, but unlike Barbara Boxer, he’s facing an absolute wack-job in Pat Toomey. I think polling on this race is off simply because I cannot envision a scenario in which moderates/indies break for Toomey. Not gonna happen.
13.New Hampshire – I can’t identify anything that Hodes is doing wrong, but it seems as though the partisan lean in this state toward Team Blue of recent has vanished, and perhaps gone the other way. If Kelly Ayotte somehow doesn’t win the primary though, this moves way up.
14.North Carolina – In a better cycle, this would be a fantastic pickup attempt. But the partisan lean of the state and the environment will make things easy on Richard Burr. Plus, I’m not really sold on Elaine Marshall as a candidate.
15.New York – It all boils down to whether or not George Pataki runs against Kirsten Gillibrand. I say he doesn’t, which is why I don’t have this one up all that high.
Other races to watch:
16.Louisiana
17.Arizona
18.Wisconsin
19.Georgia
20.Washington
1. North Dakota (Solid GOP)
2. Nevada (Likely GOP)
3. Delaware (Likely GOP)
4. Arkansas (Lean GOP)
5. Illinois (Toss-Up)
6. Colorado (Toss-Up)
7. Pennsylvania (Toss-up)
8. New Hampshire (Toss-up)
9. Ohio (Toss-up)
10. California (Lean Dem)
11. Missouri (Lean Dem)
12. North Carolina (Lean GOP)
13. Kentucky (Lean GOP)
14. Indiana (Lean Dem)
15. Wisconsin (Lean Dem)
16. Washington (Likely Dem)
17. Connecticut (Likely Dem)
18. Florida (Likely GOP)
19. New York (B) (Likely Dem)
20. Arizona (Likely GOP)
21. Louisiana (Likely GOP)
22. The rest
ND
AR
NV
DE
IN
CO
PA
IL
MO
OH
CA
NH
KY
FL
NC
WI (Higher with Thompson)
WA (Higher with Rossi)
NY (Higer with Pataki)
CT
OR
LA
IA
… but I have Delaware a little lower than most…
1. North Dakota (Solid GOP)
2. Arkansas (Likely GOP)
3. Nevada (Likely GOP)
4. Delaware (Likely GOP)
5. Pennsylvania (Lean GOP)
6. Indiana (Toss-Up)
7. Colorado (Toss-Up)
8. Illinois (Lean Dem)
9. Ohio (Lean GOP)
10. Missouri (Lean GOP)
11. California (Lean Dem)
12. New Hampshire (Likely GOP)
13. North Carolina (Likely GOP)
14. Kentucky (Likely GOP)
Wild Cards
1. Wisconsin (insert between 11 & 12 if Thompson runs)
2. Washington (insert between 11 & 12 if Rossi runs)
3. Florida (insert between 11 & 12 if Crist runs as independent)
4. New York (B) (insert between 12 & 13 if Pataki runs)
My guess is that Republicans pick up 7 seats in the Senate positioning them to take the chamber in 2012. This is ugly, but the House is even uglier.
I think we lose the first seven and one of the following :(IL, CA, WI, WA, NY-B). At this point, I don’t see any pickups unless a GOP candidate has a George Allen-like meltdown.
1. NORTH DAKOTA
2. DELAWARE
3. ARKANSAS
4. NEVADA
5. INDIANA
6. COLORADO
7. PENNSYLVANIA
8. ILLINOIS
9. OHIO
10. MISSOURI
11. NEW HAMPSHIRE
12. CALIFORNIA
13. NORTH CAROLINA
14. WISCONSIN
15. WASHINGTON
16. NEW YORK B
17. KENTUCKY
18. FLORIDA
19. LOUISIANA
20. ARIZONA
21. IOWA
22. CONNECTICUT
ND – Welcome Senator Hoeven
AR – Don’t think either Lincoln or more liberal Halter can hold this one. Would be similar if WV had an open seat this year.
NV – Only Harry Reid’s buckets of money (and perhaps Ensign and Gibbons) keep move this seat below AR.
DE – Castle favored for sure. Coons is not impossible in Delaware though. Castle walking fine line between tea party and moderate independents.
KY – Rand Paul has flame out potential. Conway gaining in Dem primary.
OH – Who does Portman appeal to specifically? Obama and HCR approval holding up well in OH
IN – This should be higher, but unappealing GOP candidates complicate the picture. GOP might be better off if Stutzman caught fire like Marco Rubio, but he doesn’t seem to be.
IL – This should be an easy hold, but Alexi is a disaster.
MO – Why did Sarah Steelman decline to challenge Blunt? This may end up 50/50.
PA – Hard go predict. Too many cross currents here. Specter needs to energize Dem voters, which is complicated by his 30 year history of voting GOP.
CO – Competitive primary benefits Dems as they will end up with better candidate either way.
NH – The live free or die state, traditionally GOP, having second thoughts about Obama and HCR. Ayotte likely holds. If Ayotte falls in primary, GOP may still hold.
NC – Any other year Dem would be favored over this invisible incumbent.
FL – GOP hold is likely, but some possibility for implosion. Meek looks competent enough to take advantage of GOP mis-steps. Anyone think Rubio charged bondage clubs to his state card?
First the rankings:
1. ND (Open)
2. DE (Open)
3. NV (Reid)
4. AR (Lincoln)
5. IN (Open)
6. CO (Bennet)
7. PA (Specter)
8. IL (Open)
9. MO (Open)
10. OH (Open)
11. KY (Open)
12. NH (Open)
13. CA (Boxer)
I think this is the threshold of possibility.
14. NC (Burr)
15. FL (Open)
16. LA (Vitter)
17. WI (Feingold)
18. WA (Murray)
19. NY (Gillibrand)
20. IA (Grassley)
21. AZ (McCain)
22. CT (Open)
23. GA (Isakson)
GOP Pickups:
* Minimum: -4 (ND, DE, NV, and AR)
* Maximum: -9 (the above plus IN, CO, PA, IL, and CA)
DEM Pickups:
* Minimum: none
* Maximum: +4 (MO, OH, KY, and NH)
Best-case scenario: GOP +4, Dem +4 = net loss of 0 (59-41)
Worst-case scenario: GOP +9, Dem +0 = net loss of 9. (50-50)
With 10 seats needed to flip control to the GOP, that means the DEM majority appears safe, for now. The only way the GOP takes the Senate is if Lieberman or someone else flips, which easily could happen, especially if he wants to run as an Independent in 2012, which he probably does.
Come 2012, Obama and the Dems better have some accomplishments to help drag the 24 Democratic Senators up for reelection across the finish line, or the Senate could easily flip then as well. NE, FL, MO, MT, OH, VA, and a likely open seat in WV will be highly vulnerable. Dem pickups would be limited to Massachusetts and Nevada (especially if Ensign seeks reelection), and possibly Maine (only if Snowe gets primaried) and Arizona (if Kyl retires or the climate is VERY Dem-friendly). Lieberman is up for reelection, but could still win as an Independent with like 39% (his current approval).
to see what the community’s overall list would look like. In only included the top 22 races b/c I am only human. If any races not included were given the value of what would be the next race on your list; so if you did a top 10 any races not on it would all be considered to be the 11th race. In parenthesis are the average value of the race:
1. North Dakota (1): Nobody, out of 33 lists, outside the top spot
2. Delaware (2.9)
3. Nevada (3.2)
4. Arkansas (3.5)
5. Colorado (6.6)
6. Pennsylvania (7.7)
7. Missouri(7.8)
8. Tied Illinois (8)
8. Tied Indiana (8)
10. Ohio(8.3)
11. New Hampshire (10)
12. California (11)
13. Tied Kentucky (13)
13. Tied North Carolina (13)
15. Tied Florida (15)
15. Tied Wisconsin (15)
17. Washington (16)
18. New York B (16.7)
19. Louisiana (17)
20. Tied Connecticut (18)
20. Tied Iowa (18)
20. Tied Arizona (18)