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ME-01, ME-02: Pingree and Michaud Both Under 50

by: James L.

Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 5:41 PM EDT


Public Policy Poling (9/2-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 47
Dean Scontras (R): 38
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Some have cited Maine's first district as a potential upset this fall, pointing to Pingree's underwhelming 10-point win in 2008 (a spread that Obama doubled against McCain). It looks like Pingree is still underperforming against the not terribly well-funded businessman Dean Scontras (who tried but failed to win the GOP nomination in '08). However, it's looking like the 2nd District race may end up to be quite a bit closer:

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 45
Jason Levesque (R): 38
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Levesque has raised a bit of money that has enabled him to actually go on the air, and we recently flagged this race as one worth keeping a wary eye on. The numbers suggest that Levesque is the candidate with more room to grow:

This race is probably going to tighten up because 21% of Republicans are undecided while only 10% of Democrats are. Michaud has his party base pretty much locked up at 81% while Levesque's getting only 65% of his party as many remain undecided. Michaud is also leading 43-34 with independents despite the fact that they disapprove of him by a 34/46 margin.

Both of these are interesting races. Neither incumbent has locked up their re-election, but their GOP opponents will probably need some help in overtaking them. The NRCC may have more opportunities this fall than they can afford.
James L. :: ME-01, ME-02: Pingree and Michaud Both Under 50
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ME-01, ME-02: Pingree and Michaud Both Under 50 | 35 comments
Nate
I wonder when Silver will have his house forecasting model done and published I'm also anticipating whether it will simply rely on the generic ballot (to create a Dem 35 seats generally), be the generic ballot supplemented with polling from individual seats (to create a modified seatby-seat forecast), or simply a generic seat-by-seat forecast.

Frankly, depending on which direction he goes, Michaud may be shown as in trouble by his model.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

.
Well. Hyphenates obviously aren't good for formatting.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Reading between the lines
Probably a hybrid model. As it should. Michaud will be fine considering he leads with indies.
[ Parent ]
Disapproval
They also disapprove of him... Could be soft support. If Sarah gets involved here and the Tea Party commits resources, the gubernatorial race (which the same sample gave a blowout for a Tea Partier) could provide some nice tailwind for the Rep.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Why would Palin
Help in a Democratic district? Money maybe but not enough to catch up when there are so many other juicier targets. But if the NRCC wants to take resources from elsewhere and put them into this seat then I say be my guest.  
[ Parent ]
not sure a tea partier would work well in maine
economic liberty, less spending will play well here, but the conservative christian aspects (anti-gay marriage, etc) won't.  a spending cap failed by about 9 points in 2006, and the anti-gay initiative barely passed in 2009, during a republican, off year election (plus california passed prop 8, that doesn't mean a tea bagger would work well there either).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
i don't know
he leads among indies, but his opponent is unknown to 66% of the electorate.  further, despite being so unknown, he's competitive with michaud.  this suggests, that after the people who always vote for republicans regardless of circumstances, there are a lot of people who want to vote for a republican, but don't care who it is.    

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
He'll be vastly outspent
To counteract that.
[ Parent ]
money can't buy you love
countless unpopular, incumbents have outspent their opponents by massive margins to no avail.  not saying it won't work, but "he has money" won't guarantee anything if the electorate is mad enough to vote out anybody with a "D" or "inc" next to his name

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
It works when 66%
Don't know the other guy.
[ Parent ]
CoH
$58,961 versus $668,266 equals likely Dem.
Tough to overcome that disadvantage in any environment

[ Parent ]
In June 2008
Phil English had a monstrous $787K-$128K CoH advantage over Kathy Dahlkemper.

Not saying/just saying.

[ Parent ]
Are you suggesting
There is evidence he has surged since the end of June?
[ Parent ]
I'm suggesting
That money -- at least, the money that the candidates themselves raise -- isn't always determinative. Phil English out-spent Kathy Dahlkemper by a 2.5-to-1 margin last time. Granted, Dahlkemper, who was never a strong fundraiser, was boosted by a surge of DCCC cash. That race appeared to fall off the table after the DCCC-recruited Kyle Foust imploded due to his own incompetence as a candidate, but the DCCC nevertheless propped Dahlkemper up when the polling suggested English was in trouble.

This is a very good poll for Levesque, if it's accurate. He'll probably need help from the NRCC in making up the gap, but I could easily see it happening.

None of this should be taken as me predicting defeat for Michaud. It is merely one poll, after all, and perhaps the still-unvetted Levesque will falter. But Michaud can't rely on his $670K in the bank to win the race for him.

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
As I said above, I would welcome the NRCC getting involved because it takes money away from other races and I believe Michaud will win anyway. Which is probably why they won't do it.
[ Parent ]
Bingo, this is one of those the NRCC can't afford to spend in. That's why money matters......
That disparity in cash between the DCCC and the NRCC matters a LOT.

I have wondered why the NRCC doesn't take out a $10 million loan.  They'd get a lot of bang for their buck this year.  The RNC is doing it, but the RNC is a bunch of moronic boobs, not just Steele but all his minions.

Assuming the NRCC is stuck with what it raises, they will have leave seats like those in Maine on the table.  It's just not worth it to go after Michaud or Pingree when there are at least 70 Democratic-held seats more vulnerable than those.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The DCCC
did most of the heavy lifting though. The NRCC might, but they don't have the war chest of the DCCC and have much more juicer targets to spend on.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but $128k is quite different from $59k


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
That why close polls like this are bad news for Dems
If polls like this show both these Maine races potentially winnable for the GOP it makes it easier for these candidates to raise cash and get outside 3rd party money to come in for them.

Close poll numbers help candidates close COH disadvantages.

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[ Parent ]
It works both ways
Both candidates stand to raise equal amounts of money due to the "closeness" aspect.  If one has a 250 to 50 edge and they both raise 200 more, it's still a 450 to 250 edge.

The help for a candidate with less money is small, unless the candidate with more money is loathed and unable to raise any more him/herself.

See Alaska Senate.

[ Parent ]
repeat post from an earlier thread
That poll had strange internals. 85% of the sample in Michaud's district was 46 or older. In Pingree's district, 70% were 46 or older. Midterm electorates skew old, but they don't skew that old.  In the 2008 exit poll, only 56% of Maine voters were 45 or older.

As another poster noted, the sample may have skewed old because it was taken on Labor Day weekend when younger voters are more likely to be out.  

41, Ind, CA-05

IMPORTANT: PPP house races outside of NC erratic
Look at their polls of NY-23 (Hoffman in an avalanche) or PA-12 (In their final poll Critz was 1 pt down). Prior to their final poll of PA-12 Critz was down considerably according to them.

They have an overall fine record and even with house races do well within their own state, but they raise some eyebrows in CDs elsewhere.

The age sample figures, not because of the holiday so much but because people under 46 are far less likely to have land lines. Who knows how much of a difference that is making overall this year.

[ Parent ]
What's the common thread from those three races?
Answer: They were all special elections.
[ Parent ]
It's only two elections
but NY-23 was on election day 09, and dem internal polls came within a couple of points of the actual result in PA-12, while Siena and R2K/Kos were reasonably close in NY-23. I think PPP has some issues with congressional district polling--it is tougher than statewide or nationwide sampling, and they do seem to do it well within NC.
[ Parent ]
NY-23
In the middle of their poll, one candidate dropped out. At the end of their poll, after they had tweaked the numbers for Scozzafava dropping out, she endorsed the Dem. Two big movements in the race during their poll.  
[ Parent ]
Two reasons
There are two reasons to explain their poor polling.

1)  Special election polling is difficult for congressional races.

2)  Those districts in particular are difficult to poll.  Basically my disclaimer of rural congressional polling applies.

I would argue both of these do not apply here.  While I would issue my rural disclaimer for ME-2 if it was being polled by itself, I am not going to seeing this sample was part of an actual statewide poll.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
This probably one of those "surprise" districts on election day.
In such a terrible enviroment some unfortunate people will lose who didn't do anything to "deserve" it (no scandal,no lack of funds, ect).

While I'm not claiming this necessarily is is, this is the type of district that s relevant.

Michaud leads by 7. More republicans are undecided and it seems clear the independents who are undecided are more likely disapprove rather than approve of Michaud. Also there is the upticket support from a strong Republcan nominee.

Basically all the dynamics point to this race tighting.    

Michaud will win
Unless Langevin can raise some money. This is probably not the type of district many of the outside groups will target, so it will be up to the candidates for the most part.  
[ Parent ]
i see michaud losing
ala jeb bradley or the other new hampshire congressman ala 2006.  a large number of people voting republican simply because they want to vote republican.  no logic, no "i remember the position of this guy, i liked the policies, i'll vote for him" just pulling the switch for one guy because of the party.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
CSP had one advantage that Levesque doesn't:
straight-ticket voting with a candidate at the top of the ballot winning 70%.
[ Parent ]
Langevin may be pro-life...
but he is loyal to the Democratic Party and won't make the long (by RI standards) drive up to Maine to campaign against a fellow pro-life Democrat.

unless you meant Levesque ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I don't see LePage helping
assuming he wins (which is a fairly safe assumption at this point), he probably won't break 50%, since the independent candidates are picking up 16%, and if previous third-party results in Maine are any indication, their support will not shrink when it comes time to actually vote, and may even expand. That won't help Levesque, when he does need to break 50% in order to win.
[ Parent ]
The upset of the night: It has to be someone
Usually when we see a wave at least someone every considered likely or safe for most of the cycle goes down ('08 may have been an exception.) There's a good chance that a seat--just one or two--like ME-02 or IA-02 or NC-07 flips this cycle, but it's almost impossible to predict beforehand which one it's going to be. This poll, which has its demographic flaws, shows that neither Michaud nor Pingree is out of the woods, but the individual odds of one of them losing is pretty low.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Some causes for alarm
I continue to think that Pingree is very much an underperformer. 47% against very conservative Scontras is not something to brag about in her liberal-leaning district. Michaud is stronger, but Levesque is, probably, better candidate then Scontras (though - underfinanced), and district is very quirky in it's habits)))
ME-01, ME-02: Pingree and Michaud Both Under 50 | 35 comments

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