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SSP Daily Digest: 8/27 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 7:36 AM EDT


  • CO-Sen: Like so many Republicans who rail against pork, Ken Buck still loves to gorge himself. Buck signed an anti-earmarks pledge pushed by Americans for Prosperity, but as Weld County DA, he asked then-Rep. Marilyn Manson Musgrave for a $2 million in federal funding for "expansions of North Range Behavioral Health center in Greeley." He also "won $235,000 earmarked for the Weld County Gang Task Force." In non-explaining this rather glaring contradiction, Weld said it "doesn't mean I don't want to change the system." In other words, vote for me because I'm a hypocrite.
  • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio agreed to participate in a debate with Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek, and then proposed six more. Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Buzz explains how this play might really squeeze Crist:
  • Charlie Crist is almost always good on TV, but this poses a real problem for him. In a three-person debate, it would be Rubio and Meek each taking turns hitting Crist and pressing him on flip-flops and inconsistencies. It's hard to stay above the fray when you're the main target.

    But skipping most of the debates is equally problematic. If Meek agrees to these debates and the networks agree to televise them with or without all three candidates, Crist would be letting Meek raise his profile as the Democratic alternative to Rubio.

    Tom Jensen also describes another rock-and-hard-place problem for Charlie: Kendrick Meek is starting to eat his lunch among Democrats, so how can Crist regain that support? Well, he could pledge to caucus with the Democrats... but that would, of course, hurt him among Republicans. Mark Blumenthal also has an in-depth post on the subject, looking at things from Kendrick Meek's perspective and wondering if he has a path to victory. Blumenthal concludes that Meek has a lot of room to grow, but thinks wining would be a "tall order."

  • KY-Sen: Rand Paul knows that when you are in a deep hole, you bring in a back-hoe. Then, you start using some C4. Finally, you send in an army of ten million moles. At last, once you can finally hear the sound of Chinese being spoken, you know you are deep enough - and you reiterate your opposition to doing anything about the drug problem in Eastern Kentucky.
  • NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall has become the first (I think) challenger so far to call for former WY Sen. Alan Simpson's resignation from what Atrios calls the "cat food commission" (not cat fud commission, sadly) - aka the president's stupid deficit commission. Simpson, if you haven't heard yet, wrote a vile email to the head of the National Older Women's League, calling Social Security "a milk cow with 310 million tits" - and telling his correspondent to "get honest work."
  • NV-Sen: His Mayoralness Michael Bloomberg will be hosting a fundraiser for none other than Harry Reid at Bloombo's home in September. The Hill notes that Bloombleman has endorsed both Dems and GOPers this cycle, including Michael Bennet and Joe Sestak for the good guys, and Mark Kirk and Mike Castle for the bad guys.
  • Getting back to Nevada for a second, both Reid and Angle have new ads up, which you can view here. Reid has really been smacking Angle relentlessly over all the crazy shit she's said - so I think you can understand why I said yesterday that it feels "limp" for Ron Klein to go after the similarly insane Allen West over tax issues rather than teh crazy. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, though the Reid campaign says the ad "will be added to its rotation of statewide spots."

  • WI-Sen: Wait, could there actually be room in this digest for a second Republican hypocrite? Hell yes! And it's a repeat performance. It turns out that Ron Johnson's plastics company Pacur received a HUD grant in 1979 to build a railway line out to its factory. This is on top of the $2.5 million federal loan Pacur received in the mid-80s to build an addition to the factory. As one blogger says, Ayn Rand must be rotating in her crypt. Don't forget what Dagny Taggart did for a living!
  • AZ-03: Ben Quayle started a post-victory press conference by doubling down on his previous jerk-assedness, repeating his claim that "Barack Obama is the worst President in history.'" The douche really doesn't fall far from the bag, huh. Meanwhile, Quayle's former buddies at TheDirty.com were hit with an $11 million default judgment in a defamation suit brought by one of the many people they've wronged over the years. The only problem, however, is that the plaintiff's attorneys appeared to have crumbed the play by naming the wrong business entity in their lawsuit. Hooman Karamian, the scumbag behind the website, says that neither he nor his company was served process, which could seriously imperil the award. In any case, all this legal wrangling is gonna make it a little harder for Quayle to get past this issue, methinks. (And Karamian, for that matter, says that he'll stop blogging about Quayle's involvement with the site once he "admits that he is Brock Landers".)
  • FL-08: Alan Grayson is sharpening his battle axe:
  • "Dan Webster is deader than Elvis. ... He is the ultimate establishment candidate," Grayson quipped Wednesday, the morning after Republican voters picked the veteran former state legislator to run against him in District 8. ...

    Grayson, of Orlando, is a bare-knuckle campaigner who has already begun referring to Webster as "Taliban Dan," for what he considers to be Webster's extreme religious views. Grayson made it clear his campaign plans a heavy onslaught of attacks against Webster's voting record.

    "Stay tuned. You'll see: We'll be putting it out day after day, week after week," Grayson said. "Very soon people are going to realize that Webster can't possibly win."

    While he's often infuriating, you gotta respect Grayson for being balls-out, and not sounding like such a wuss like so many other Democrats.

  • FL-17: The Miami Herald has an interesting post-mortem on the Dem primary in the 17th CD. Given the heavily Haitian population in the district, it seemed likely that it could send the first Haitian-American person to Congress. But the four candidates of Haitian descent in the race split the vote, allowing state Sen. Frederica Wilson to carry the day with 35% (a number which, given the huge size of the field, was actually considered pretty high).
  • FL-24: Put the can-openers away, boys - no cat fud here. Karen Diebel emerged from hiding to endorse state Rep. Sandy Adams, the winner of the GOP primary. Diebel lost by about 0.8%, but obviously this means no recount.
  • ME-02: Businessman Jason Levesque is up on the airwaves in his bid to upset Blue Dog Mike Michaud, touting his desire to reign in government spending. Levesque has raised over $250K for his bid, so you may want to consider adding this one to your list of races that are bubbling under. (JL)
  • NM-02: The other day, we mentioned that the Defenders of Wildlife threw down another $125K on a new attack ad against GOPer Steve Pearce. The New Mexico Independent has the ad, if you'd like to watch it.
  • NC-07: Here's something you don't see every day: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre's 2008 Republican opponent, Will Breazeale, is endorsing him. Breazeale really has it in for GOP nominee Ilario Pantano - Breazeale attempted a repeat bid this year, but was beaten by Pantano in the primary. The odd thing is that the McIntyre campaign specifically said "no comment" in regard to the endorsement. Any thoughts on why?
  • NC-08: Larry Kissell is touting a new internal poll from Anzalone-Liszt, showing him beating Republican Harold Johnson 49-32, with Libertarian Thomas Hill at 7. The only other interesting finding actually released in the memo is Johnson's faves, 32-25.
  • NV-03: Actually, it turns out AFSCME's buy was a lot bigger than we thought: $750K, according to independent expenditure reports, rather than the $240K reported by the Smart Media Group. AFSCME really seems to like buying in three-quarters-of-a-million chunks.
  • NY-01: Randy Altschuler is out with a new ad attacking Republican rival Chris Cox for living in New York City, rather than in Suffolk County. (Apparently, Cox is crashing at his uncle's house in the Hamptons.) NWOTSOTB.
  • NY-13: GOPer Michael Allegretti has a new ad out, frenetically edited in the Dale Peterson style, which includes a "man on the street" declaring that Allegretti "is a paisan! He's one of us!" And here's an interesting detail the ad alludes to, which I think we missed: Allegretti's opponent Mike Grimm apparently has no job and has debts which far exceed his income, according to financial disclosure forms. Gotta wonder how he can afford to run for Congress in NYC.
  • NY-14: Looks like the New York Post got caught trying to ratfuck the Dem primary here in my backyard. Those scuzzes tried to claim that Hillary Clinton - you know, the Secretary of State - was "unofficially" backing Reshma Saujani. Clinton confidantes and the State Department have called bullshit, though, stating that the Secretary of State does not engage in partisan politics. Duh. Nice try, Posties.
  • SD-AL: In politics, going after a candidate's record traffic infractions is usually a rinky-dink play, but it turns out that Republican Kristi Noem's record behind the wheel is very troubled:

    KELOLAND News checked the records for all five candidates for U.S. House and Governor; Noem has the longest list of violations, including 20 speeding tickets, three stop sign violations, two seat belt violations, and no driver's license. Noem also has six court notices for failure to appear and two arrest warrants.

    Yikes! Meanwhile, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is out with a new ad that, mercifully, doesn't feature her son's poop, but instead speaks in dour tones about how liberals in Washington are wrecking the heartland. Pretty bleak, defeatist-sounding stuff. (JL)

  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/27 (Morning Edition)
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    aka the president's stupid deficit commission
    I'm sorry corection, is that in Atrios words or your own words. Just feel that you should just post the news and not add commentary when not needed.

    As for Sandlin's ad. You got to remember before you say anything that it's SD. Not exactly a hotbed for liberalism if you know what I mean so the ad makes sense.

    Alan Greyson, yes the man has balls bigger than church bells. All Dems can take a page from him.

    Ben Quayle..well like father like sun er...son.


    Personally
    if I was Sandlin I'd be a little more blunt with my words. I'd probably said:

    "I stood up to Obama when he wanted to blah blah blah..."

    This is the state where John Thune, who sometimes looks like he's deader than deader defeated Tom Daschle so its a good idea to be independent from your party.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    That's why I disagree when David said the ad sounds defeatist. This is SD and this isn't a hotbel for liberalism so it's good to make yourself independent but I rather have your words in the ad because of what you said: it's more blunt and blunt and to the point is a good thing.

    [ Parent ]
    IMHO, she's doing the wrong thing
    As bad as things got for Republicans in '06 and '08, they never resorted too "Conservatives in Washington are ruining everything" or something of that ilk. Even if Sandlin isn't that liberal, attacking "Washington liberals" is a bad move because for most voters, "liberal" and "Democratic" are go together and she's a Washington Democrat. If SD voters are mad at Washington liberals, they're going to vote for the Republican.

    Sandlin's path to victory is to completely localize this race and make it about what she's done and can do for the state with her rising seniority. Keep hitting Noem on local issues is what I'd advise her.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Ugh, the dreaded to/too mistake
    Can't believe I did that one. It's not even that early.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    By the Way
    I wasn't trying to be ignorant David when I asked you that question. I was just curious whatever it was Atrios words or yours.

    South Dakota
    There's asserting your independence, and then there's running down your own partisans, and making yourself out as a (faux) populist who is superior to the people in DC. It's a deeply annoying ad.

    And, speeding tickets? When issues of war, health care and taxes are on the line, I find it both hilarious and sad that anyone would care about a candidate's speeding tickets.


    I don't find it annoying
    The ad with her kid crapping now that's annoying (not to mention head scratching) it's her trying to score with indies and running away from DC. Not the bad of a idea.

    As for the tickets. Yeah your right it's not news and i'm suprised someone took the tie to dig that up but hey fun to know.


    [ Parent ]
    Helpful, but annoying
    It will be helpful to her, but I find this behavior to be annoying from both sides.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Good point, but who on the Republican side is doing it?


    [ Parent ]
    Populism in general
    This rhetoric is being used way too much by both sides in my book.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Your right it is
    But in this cycle it's the "in" thing to do. People don't like Washington so you have pols from both sides running away from it, calling it evil and asserting their independence from party ties. It's unoriginal yes, but it seems from polling and such the voters want it. That's why around this time and on I stay away from all the networks because all the ads are the same stuff and very annoying. Plus i'm not a man who decides to vote for a man or woman based on a 30 second ad. You the same way?

    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunately many do
    politics is in many way a depressing thing, SSP often makes me realize this most strongly, by showing me the utter juvenile stupidity of our electorate; if one goes by the childish way politicians campaign. It's like watching a wrestling match sometimes, with each side trying to work up the crowd with the best taunts and insults, none of which have any real meaning or affect on the actual fight, (or in politics case governing).

    [ Parent ]
    Politics in America is depressing yes
    Because people here (aleast a majority) don't vote for a pol based on issues, they vote for a pol because he's good looking or other little tidbits that have nothing to do with governing. I mean up until the '04 election Republicans can put the fear into voting for Democrats by saying 9/11. My mom voted for Bush because she didn't like Kerry's face. Or we vote for a man because he's a guy we can have a beer with. I don't want a politican I can have a beer with. I want a politican that will fight for me and do things that will benefit me and the other people he represents. It's quite frightening to think of all that, not to mention there's a chunk of people who think Obama is a closeted muslim and was born in Kenya. It's sad yet assenine at the same time.

    [ Parent ]
    Our society
    I watch very little television and part of the reason is that I cannot stand news coverage on the networks.  I don't have cable and am happier with the 50 dollars a month.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Don't blame you
    Fox, CNN, MSNBC dosen't report the true news, just news the way they want to slant it and that's not real journalism. Of course that's just my opinion.

    Where do you get your news then? Politics and issues happening in your state.


    [ Parent ]
    Same here.
    I had already been watching less TV with the extinction of great, mostly educational, shows, and the changing of the news networks to "infotainment" sealed the deal. Now I only use my TV for my Wii.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Linc Chafee
    in 2006. Granted he disagreed with Bush on the major issues, but when the President's from your party and your constituents hate him, its good to throw him under the bus.



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    I like it
    Is this his first ad? Because I haven't seen anything else from him.

    [ Parent ]
    That
    ad was from his failed 2006 reelection campaign. He released an ad for his gubernatorial campaign a few days ago though.



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    Well, when the incumbent's predecessor resigned after killing someone while speeding, it's more salient than usual


    [ Parent ]
    Bill Janklow yeah that's right
    I read up about that incident. The guy served very little time for that (100 days in jail). Guy kills someone and gets a slap on the wrist but if it was you or me we be in jail for years. Great ain't it?

    [ Parent ]
    Jail time
    Considering the facts, his sentence is not that unusual.  I have heard of individuals getting 90 days for similar offenses in Pennsylvania, which is a stronger sentencing jurisdiction than South Dakota.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    There's a Difference
    Between speeding and manslaughter.

    [ Parent ]
    I think it's an issue
    more so because of the failures to appear in court and the arrest warrants, and the general repeated nature of the offenses. It's a pattern and it makes her seem like she thinks she's above the law and above being responsible for it. Ordinary voters would be turned off by the sort of mindset such behavior obviously implies.  

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    And its nice to have irrefutable attacks.  This stuff is all documents, all in public records.

    Its not like normal attachs, where they talk about so and so voting about something and the explanations get confusing.  

    It ends up going something like "I voted for on the amendment to modify the clause to restore the blah blah blah" and people have no idea what the heck they're talking about.


    [ Parent ]
    re: the speeding tickets
    This point has been brought up by a couple of commentators. When you are losing on the issues the smart thing is to make the race personal.

    The GOP in SD wants to talk about national issues like Obamacare, taxes, jobs and the econony while Herseth-Sandlin needs the election to be about speeding tickets and how cute her kid is.

    Look for a lot of this personal stuff (both pro and con) to be featured in a lot of Dem campaigns.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Ok, so when you call Obama "the worst President in history", it's "jerk-assedness", but when you compare your opponent to the Taliban, it's "ballsy"?


    Apparently so
    Look you have to remember Grayson is a firebrand and is very popular with the netroots (including myself) so of course there going to like whatever what he has to say because the guy dosen't mess around and alot of Dems like him for it.

    As for Quayle, it's "Jerk Assneedness" because he flat out said in while trying to run for public office. I'm guessing that's why.


    [ Parent ]
    It's not a good look if you're trying to take the high ground
    If you're going to chastise a lot of Republicans for their "crazy" statements (not necessarily their policies) but cheer on Grayson, you look like a partisan hack.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not a partisan hack
    Look I like the man but I have disagreed with him. Like when HCR was getting debated he refered to the GOP plan as "The Holocaust". I took great offense because 1. He's Jewish and should know better and 2. there's a line you don't cross and he crossed it.

    Personally I don't like the taliban remark but David likes it and so do the rest of the netroots and wish more were like him. I can't make all of them change their opinions.


    [ Parent ]
    Remember
    you are on a Democratic site. So our dialog isn't party neutral.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Thank you for pointing that out
    I don't like being called a partisan hack.

    [ Parent ]
    I happen to have a lot of
    sympathy to Grayson's statement because it is in many ways accurate in discussing the Evangelical Right, which is interested mainly in breaking down the barriers between Church and State, creating a conservative Christian litmus test as a a requirement for running in office in this country, and imposing their own moral and Religious doctrines on the population at large, forcibly so.

    I don't try to take the high ground, I don't equivocate, and I don't take lightly silly statements from moderates or Conservatives that Democrats are somehow as bad as Republicans when it comes to extremism or rhetoric. I call what I see, and I return what I'm given as a political observer.

    I don't take particular offense to Quayle's statements, just the same ordinary conservatism of all the GOPers running for office this year. I do happen to find him to be an inexperienced prick however.  


    [ Parent ]
    You make a good point
    Regarding all that. But did you find it offensive when Greyson called the GOP's HCR plan "The Holocaust". Well even when I disagree with him I do respect him for having a steel spine I can't look away from that.

    As for Quayle you said this:

    do happen to find him to be an inexperienced prick however

    So what your saying is like father, like son?


    [ Parent ]
    Well considering
    the GOP was standing outside the capitol building just a few days before holding up signs with pictures of the mangled bodies at Dachau and a phrase like "No to Obamacare" Grayson seems downright tame in comparison. I do think however he could have left his main zinger to "The Republican healthcare plan is to die quickly".  

    [ Parent ]
    GOP was standing outside the capitol building just a few days before holding up signs with pictures of the mangled bodies at Dachau and a phrase like "No to Obamacare"
    Yeah you got a point when you compare the two sides he was a bit tame. I mean I love that HCR was signed into law but I was glad it was done because of all the BS from GOPers and the teabaggers doing stuff like you mentioned and me seeing billboards saying "No to Obamacare" with tombstones in the background. It was sickening.

    I'll stop on that note because I don't want to derail the thread.


    [ Parent ]
    There's a disclaimer on that in the post
    He makes clear that Grayson can be a little too much a lot of the time but that he's one of the only elected Dems that has the nads to stand up to nonsense.  Calling his opponent an American Taliban is tasteless, but Dems have stood the high ground since 2000 and have lose 2 elections for it.  

    [ Parent ]
    It depends...
    It's "Ballsy" if it works and "jerk-assedness" if it doesnt.

    That's politics and we'll see in November which way it goes.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    LVRJ
    must be screaming at Mason-Dixon right now: "How many times do we have to tell you! Produce a poll showing Sharron Angle leading!"

    http://www.lvrj.com/news/poll-...

    Harry Reid (D): 45%
    Sharron Angle (R): 44%

    MoE +/-4%



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    Why is Las Vegas's main paper
    such a right-wing rag? Did they even endorse Obama in 2008?

    [ Parent ]
    Well just because they like Obama
    Dosen't translate into them liking Reid.

    Another polling from M-D showing Reid with a slim lead. They screwed up again! lol.


    [ Parent ]
    The Review-Journal is not "Las Vegas's main paper"
    The Las Vegas Sun is.

    [ Parent ]
    Come on now...
    Long time republican lurker and I've been meaning to join for a while and finally took the plunge.

    I enjoy this site more so than the other Democratic sites/blogs...folks here are generally nice, respectful and informative. I will aim to be the same.

    Now, regarding Harry Ried, aren't you guys concerned that with all his seniority, money and the fact that Angel is downright crazy (full disclosure, I supported Tarkanian), he still can't put this away?

    He was 10 times more money that she does, has been running negative ads against here for weeks and all he has to shown is a 1 point lead.

    If you ask me, this one is ours - albeit, it'll be a terribly flawed candidate (Angle, that is).

    Regards.

    35, male, Indian-American, Republican, MD-08 (formerly MI-9)


    Well think of it this why
    Why is it with all of Reid's negatives and in this GOP year, why can't Angle put it away. It can go two ways. Reid will win this because he has money, he's running againist a lunatic and remember that both candidates both are unpopular and Reid is turning out to be the less of the two evils.

    BTW welcome to SSP, enjoy your stay here.


    [ Parent ]
    Reid is a lucky man
    Reid is going to win this because Angle is Nevada's Village Idiot.  Reid is definitely the old uncle that nobody likes, but the Village Idiot is disliked even more.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Reid is a very lucky man
    But remember he worked for that luck by running alot of negative ads towards Sue Lowden to make her untolerable to the GOP electorate, paving the way for a Angle win.

    Now John Hickenlooper in CO-Gov, that's luck that just happen to him without him doing anything.


    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Given mason Dixon's great results in the GA governor runoff and the Florida primaries (sarcasm), I don't think M-D polling should give you that much hope.  

    Again, they are clearly drawing numbers between 40 and 60 out of a hat and referring to it as "polling".


    [ Parent ]
    No disagreement here about flawed candidate
    Some people on this site were arguing that it might be better in the long run if he lost the election and we had an effective Senate leader instead since Reid doesn't seem to come off as forceful, and he doesn't ever seem to be able to pass legislation.

    Still, the holding pattern with Dems this year is that they seem to be keeping the powder dry until election season after Labor Day.  Polls have rarely ever shown Dems doing better before September, at least for the past 2 elections.  On the other hand, if 2010 is a GOP wave year, that kind of phenomenon could be attributed to a wave election in general, and the polls might even be understating GOP support.

    Either way, it's best for the campaigns with big money incumbents to keep their money until before the election.  Chances are, there might be another October Surprise, too, if the economy comes out more favorably.  If not, then it might be pretty brutal for Democrats.


    [ Parent ]
    That's a very good point
    But I don't expect it to be brutal though.

    [ Parent ]
    Can't pass legislation?
    Alright, this is mostly off-topic, except to the degree it affects potential voters' and donors' attitudes toward Reid, but:

    (1) Every piece of legislation Obama signed was passed under Reid's leadership. If you think that was nothing, the Republicans who are yelling and screaming about it disagree.

    (2) Reid's trouble in passing things has to do with almost total Republican rejectionism and obstructionism which is unprecedented in the history of American politics. Never in history has the filibuster been used as often. (And of course, that has been an issue in the midterm campaign, nationally, with President Obama and others invoking the slogan of "the Party of No" to describe the Republicans.)

    Someone (Nate Silver?) did the analysis that in most previous decades of the 20th century, there was actually LESS Democratic unity in the Senate than there is now, but because there were always a fair number of Republicans who were willing to cross the aisle and vote for Democratic legislation, a lot of it got passed. The fact that things are very different in the Republican Party now is something Reid has no control over.

    There are many legitimate complaints that could be made about Reid, but not being able to pass legislation is a very dubious one, and although I'd rather see Schumer as Majority Leader, I would hope Reid wouldn't lose his seat over illusions of undue ineffectiveness.

    By the way, has the claim that he can't pass legislation been much of an issue in Nevada this campaign season? That's the question that's on topic and what I'd be really interested in knowing the answer to.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Things are very different in the Democratic Party as well.


    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely!
    There is no big phalanx of Dixiecrats!

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I'm concerned
    I am not convinced that Reid will win. I still think he might lose.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Harry Ried has 33% approval
    Aren't you concerned she can't put this away like any other republican would?

    Grayson
    I think one interested development to follow is how bad does the GOP want to get rid of Grayson? I think that he is probably their #2/3 target of someone that they can reasonably argue that they are going to take down after Harry Reid and arguably Barbara Boxer. In the House it is harder to see anyone with a bigger target on their back then him. Grayson has done very well in fundraising online and also is very independently wealthy so he can self-fund. Do they really spend upwards of $3M to try and take him out at the expense of spending money in a cheaper district going after someone potentially vulnerable whose opponents will need the money like Dina Titus, Zack Space, or Tom Perriello? While they are going to have money to spend getting 40+ seats is a tall order and spending millions going after Grayson could cost them in other places.

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    They won't fall for it
    The NRCC has yet to drop big money here and Webster isn't particularly well-funded. But my guess is he will be, for the same reason El Tinklenberg was in '08 and Tarryl Clark is this year--average Republicans hate him like Democrats hate Bachmann. The NRCC's hope here is that Grayson has damaged himself with his antics to the point where his money can't save him and a well-run, carefully budgeted campaign can beat him.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    But here's the problem
    There's no proof that Grayson has damaged himself with his comments. Add in that alot of Dems like him and he's a political ATM. He's going to be very hard to beat him.

    [ Parent ]
    That's why I'd love to see a poll on this
    The key to this is Grayson's favorable/unfavorable numbers among independents. We know Dems love him, we know Republicans hate him, but what do the folks in the middle think? Are they embarrassed by his behavior, or has he been good enough to his district to keep them on his side? This race is really going to come down to Grayson's constituent services as much as anything else. He can have all the money in the world, but what he needs is for the middle-of-the-road voters to like him.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    The Bachmann parallel is a little flawed, though
    Keep in mind, Bachmann's district is infinitely more conservative than Grayson's is liberal. In fact, Grayson's is a legit swing district. It's hard for me to fathom him winning, despite the flaws of his GOP opponent (and the apparent disarray of Republicans in general here). I guess Grayson can take some solace in that 20% of the electorate will be African-American or Hispanic, but I still think it's an uphill climb.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    And your proof on this is what
    Because it's a swing district? Come on Andy. The guy's got cash, he can flood the airwaves and he's already defining his opponent and he makes people want to come out and vote for him that stuff matters. I don't see it as a uphill climb. Tom Perriello that's another story. It's not a uphill climb from what i'm seeing.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    Norm,

    I think that I have to agree with you. I think that with the vast amounts of money and the way that Grayson has chosen to define his opponent it is about even money if he can make it if not titled a little to Grayson's side. While I don't necessarily like his antics nobody can accuse him of being a pushover. I like his strategy of painting Webster as an extremist which is brilliant. Grayson may not be well liked by lots but painting Webster as looney knowing that he will be on the air more than him is a surefire way to have people question whether they should vote for him. I'm not a fan of his "Taliban Dan" sayings but how many people are going to vote for someone who authored a bill saying that you can't get a divorce unless of adultery? He is forcing him to defend his out of touch social conservative views which won't play in that type of white collar district.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    NC-SEN
    What an odd thing for Marshall to step up and make a stand on.  I haven't heard much from her or her campaign and this is the issue where she steps to the forefront?

    Yeah I didn't get it either
    I rather see her going after Burr than going after some commission. Maybe she's trying to become more known since in most people she had big unknowns.

    [ Parent ]
    Could Help Raise Her Name ID
    Simply saying Burr's wrong about something wouldn't be too newsworthy. But getting out in front in a way that stands out on an issue people care about (Social Security), and showing some feistiness, that's not a bad way to attract attention.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    I think the problem with her besides her being unknown is that she's really not doing anything that makes anyone pay attention to her in this race. Today news about her is the first i've heard her done anything productive in the campaign. But campaigning on the issues the people care about like social security. Yeah that can raise her name ID.

    [ Parent ]
    Ugh. Indiana Senate Poll numbers from the Ellsworth campaign
    Aug. 16-18, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

    Dan Coats (R) - 49%
    Brad Ellsworth (D) - 38%

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...


    why would Ellsworth
    release this data?  I thought you would usually just say something bland like "voters all over the state are coming together to support our campaign" and then move on to describing how Coats is a retread lobbyist from Virginia/North Carolina.

    [ Parent ]
    I
    don't think Ellsworth's campaign released this. I remember reading an article about the senate race up in Massachusetts earlier this year saying why the Coakley camp seemed to be releasing a constant stream of internal polls, even those that showed her down to Scott Brown. They explained that Coakley's campaign probably passed it along to the DSCC, Emily's List, the state Democratic party and someone from those parties must of leaked the poll.

    If that logic was correct, Ellsworth's campaign must of passed the internal poll to some organization where someone there released it.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    I heard that excited as
    an example of the Coakley campaign's poor discipline.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Wtf...
    I meant cited. fail. :(

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    If I were Cynical,
    I'd think this was a ploy by the DSCC or even DNC to put the "bullet in the back of the Ellsworth's head." They want to signal donors to put more money in CO, KY, IL, and PA.

    Maybe not a coincidence with van Hollen's press conference today on the DCCC side.


    [ Parent ]
    SD-AL
    What makes the issue of driving records more important is that Herseth-Sandlin's predecessor, Bill Janklow, had to resign his seat after a felony manslaughter conviction, following a fatal accident when he went through a stop sign at full speed and struck and killed a motorcyclist.

    IA-03
    I compared the demographic breakdown in the American Action Forum poll to the actual voter turnout in 2006. The poll's demographics are way off. If Zaun is even ahead of Boswell, it's by a lot less than 10 points.

    Boswell's campaign is putting together a pretty good narrative for women voters. Yesterday it showed up in a fundraising e-mail blast, which I posted at Bleeding Heartland, but I expect to see similar rhetoric in tv and radio ads.


    PA- Philly Mayor (D-Primary)
    http://municipoll.com/yahoo_si...

    Someone recently brought up Mayor Nutter as a potential means of helping Onorato and Sestak in Pennsylvania.  Here is a poll with his numbers among Democrats.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    Mayor Nutter
    Sorry, that is just a hilarious phrase!

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I know its funny
    It is kind of sad in a way.  Someone should have changed the family name somewhere along the line.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I have to disagree with the comment on Buck
    I can see the hypocrisy in Ron Johnson taking a government check for his own business, but Buck was an elected official representing Weld County.

    Whatever his position on earmarks would be as a legislator, it would be almost negligence on his part not to take the money for his constituents. It would look really bad if he didn't.


    Agree
    I dont think Buck is a hypocrite because I'm not sure he is a "true believer" the way GOP insurgents like Angle, Rand and Lee are.

    I really beleive that Buck is just a good politician who jumped on the Tea Party bandwangon to fuel his campaign to victory over a well known front runner.

    I'm not saying that Buck wont be a conservative Republican. I just dont think he really believes the way some of the others do.

    Angle would believe what she does no matter what the issues of the day were. To me if the issue of the day was support for "red haired ponies" Buck would be leading the charge for that.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    I would agree
    I think there is a substantive difference between voting for earmarks as a legislator and asking for them as some other official.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    If you look
    at the Cook Political Report Home Page and scroll down to "updates" you will see that 32 Democratic incumbents have trailed the GOP in a private/public poll.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    Well this is nice.
    A bunch of voting machines were destroyed in Harris County, TX. And that's where Bill White is from. Possible shortages on election day.

    http://www.chron.com/disp/stor...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Koster finishes first in WA-02
    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...
    Republican challenger John Koster has a 316 vote lead over Dem incumbent Rick Larsen, one that is impossible for Larsen to make up with only 197 ballots remaining. I would expect Koster to be bumped up in Young Guns.  

    Vitter attacks VERY effective
    Almost half of Louisianian's have an unfavorable opinion of Charlie Melancon now: 26 favorable, to 48 unfavorable. Opposition Makes Vitter Stronger

    Breezing into tomorrow's primary, Sen. David Vitter seems only to be running against expectations, with polls spotting him a 70-point lead over Chet Traylor, who, having raised less than $100,000, has turned off his harsh radio attacks on the incumbent.

    An independent poll by Public Policy Polling released this week shows that Vitter's approval ratings have gone up since June, Melancon's dipped slightly, and the Republican maintains a double digit lead, 51-41 percent.

    Compared to a June poll by PPP, most of whose clients are Democrats, Vitter's job approval rating improved to 53-41 percent from 45-43 percent. It was Melancon whose favorability declined, to 26-48 percent in August, from 29-34 percent in June.

    http://www.lapolitics.com/


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