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SSP Daily Digest: 9/9 (Morning Edition)

by: James L.

Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 8:12 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: The NRSC is coughing up money for Joe Miller; they just cut him a $42,600 check and say they'll be spending $170,000 in coordinated expenditures on his behalf, which CQ reports represents "the maximum allowed under the law". I'm not sure how that's possible, though, as the FEC has a $87,000 limit on coordinated party expenditures for Senate races in Alaska. What I do know is that Democrat Scott McAdams is already making the GOP sweat (although, Joe Miller's balls-out insanity may have a little something to do with that). You see that thermometer on the top right corner of this page? You know what you have to do.

  • FL-Sen: Libertarian Alex Snitker has popped up to remind the world that he's actually in this race... by announcing that he won't be dropping out of the race, despite pressure in the form of "numerous e-mails and Facebook messages" from Republicans urging him to get out of Marco Rubio's way.

  • NC-Sen: Normally, I'd bunch this bullet down in the ad section, but Richard Burr's latest spot deserves some special attention. The ad, entitled "Front Porch", resurrects the highly-acclaimed "rocking chair" actors employed by the DSCC in their extremely effective ads against Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Only this time, they're singing Richard Burr's praises and railing against the national debt. At least, I think those are the same actors; if not, they're dead ringers for the originals. (To see what I mean, click here.) I've gotta say - pretty damned clever move on Burr's part.

  • WA-Sen: The DSCC has reserved $2 million worth of ad time to help protect Patty Murray against Dino Rossi. The DSCC's ads will begin on October 5th.

  • CO-Gov: Democrat John Hickenlooper doubled up on American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo in August fundraising, bringing in just over $400K to Tancredo's $200K. Tancredo, in turn, quadrupled up on Republican flag-bearer Dan Maes, who raised $50K, nearly half of which was spent on legal fees and campaign finance penalties. Meanwhile, downballot Republicans are doing their best to rally around Tancredo, the only guy with the money and semblance of cred to run a real campaign. More than 20 elected GOPers in Colorado came out in support of Tanc. RGA chair Haley Barbour sounds about ready to throw in the towel, though.

  • AZ-01, AZ-05: Here's a pair of fresh GOP internal polls from Arizona for your consumption: In AZ-01, rogue dentist Paul Gosar is tied with Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick at 43-43 in a Moore Information poll conducted at the end of August. In AZ-05, National Research, Inc. has David Schweikert up on Dem Harry Mitchell by 46-38.

  • FL-02: Blue Dog Allen Boyd rolled out the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce yesterday.

  • KS-04: By all indications, Republicans are set to have a very good year at the polls, but they would be foolish to consider a race like the open seat battle to replace Todd Tiahrt in the bag. Not only has Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle been fundraising strongly and polling competitively in this GOP-friendly district against dickbag Republican Mike Pompeo, it looks like there's a very real chance that there could be some serious vote-splitting on the right. Mega-wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, who lost to Pompeo in the Republican primary, is interested in running as a Libertarian, and Kansas Libertarian Party Chairman Andrew Gray said the chances of that happening are "very favorable". Hartman, who spent over $1.5 million on Republican campaign, had a phone interview with the Libertarians on Tuesday, and they apparently loved what they had to hear. Hartman would be taking the place of David Moffett on the Libertarian ballot, who pulled his name last week after citing personal health reasons. Republicans, of course, are crying foul, but the KS SoS has already denied one objection to the withdrawal.

  • D-bags: Add NRCC tool Andy Sere to the list. Just click the link.

    SSP TV:

  • DE-Sen: Chris Coons is out with his first ad, a spot touting his record as New Castle County Executive. NWOTSOTB, but it's a statewide cable buy that the campaign decided to roll out earlier than planned in order to take advantage of the cat fud fight between Christine O'Donnell and Mike Castle.
  • AR-01: Chad Causey's first ad of the general election is a spot that's mostly biographical, but one that ends with a left hook on Republican Rick Crawford for his support for the bad kind of SSP.
  • AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords is out with a solid hit on tea-flavored douchebag Jesse Kelly, hitting him with his own words on his plan to "privatize" and "phase out" Social Security, which, along with Medicare, are apparently the "biggest Ponzi schemes in history". Hey, Jesse: thank you for being a moron.
  • CA-45: Mary Bono Mack's first ad touts her efforts to support the "magic" of the doctor-patient relationship. Or something.
  • IL-11: Republican Adam Kinzinger is up with his first ad, an autobiographical piece which touts his Air Force service and his intervention in a knife attack on a woman back home.
  • IL-17: Phil Hare is out with his first ad in four years, hitting Republican Bobby Schilling on his support of "a bad trade deal with Korea".
  • IN-02: GOPer Jackie Walorski has the right issue (the economy), but the wrong remedy (trickle down nonsense).
  • IN-08: Republican Larry Buschon's first spot hits Democrats on, you guessed it, spending - and also on the curious notion that food grows in grocery stores.
  • MD-01: Frank Kratovil Reads The Bills. (The ad will run "on broadcast stations in the Baltimore and Salisbury markets".)
  • MI-09: Gary Peters flips the bird to Wall Street.
  • NE-02: Dem Tom White hits Lee Terry on the national debt, citing his vote for TARP.
  • NJ-12: Rush Holt's first ad is half-negative, hitting hedge fund kingpin Scott Sipprelle for his supply-side economics, and half-positive, touting Holt's support of the middle class.
  • TN-08: Dem Roy Herron comes out against drug dealers, predatory lenders, and Wall Street. This one seems like it could use more of an emotional punch, though.

    SSP IE Tracker:

    Longtime fans of SSP will remember the House Independent Expenditure tracker that we updated on a regular basis two years ago. As much as I'd like to resurrect that project this year, the time constraints of law school prevent me from investing that kind of time. However, we'll still try to keep you in the loop on noteworthy independent expenditure reports here in the Daily Digest.

  • NH-Sen: CULAC the PAC files a $66K radio ad buy on behalf of conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne
  • IN-02: The NRCC files $95K in ads and polls against Joe Donnelly
  • MA-09: The SEIU is spending $190K on phonebanks and radio ads in support of Mac D'Alessandro in his primary fight against Stephen Lynch
  • MI-01: The DCCC buys $48K in ads against Dan Benishek
  • WI-07: The DCCC has re-upped their ad buy against Sean Duffy by another $50K.
  • James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/9 (Morning Edition)
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    Add Andy Sere to the D-Bag List?
    He lives on the list. Anyone remember his gay-baiting of Roy Herron? Excuse my French but what a sad piece of crap.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    I hate to say it, but that Burr ad may be one of the best of the cycle
    No wonder the DSCC hasn't put any money in this race.

    Agreed
    My hunch is Burr wins by about the same margin he did in '04.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    if you want to find a silver lining, at least Burr will break the curse on that seat

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    we can probably beat him in 2016
    It'll be a presidential year and NC will have had another 6 years to keep moving left.  Burr may finally solidify himself as an incumbent by then, though

    [ Parent ]
    Incumbency advantage
    I'm not through all of the readings yet, but what I've read makes it out to seem as though the incumbency advantage is basically in our heads, or, at the very least, not directly related to the final outcome.  What it directly affects is the probability of a "quality" challenger emerging.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Incumbency advantage also works against them too
    Especially when it seems like NC hates its senators and when trends are not in your favor.  Burr is up in the polls and may win this by grace of his low profile alone basically.  Whereas Dole was something of a star in the party, there's nothing that really defines Burr and, if we believe the PPP numbers, he'd probably be losing if there were more Dem enthusiasm (and with NC basically a swing state now, there will be a lot in 2016).

    [ Parent ]
    I bet he'll retire in 2016
    If he stays on, I agree with Andrew - he'll lose. It's hard to imagine him winning any other year with the numbers he's been putting up.

    [ Parent ]
    The best part
    The best part is the very beginning, where they talk about voting for Democrats in 2008 and now regretting it, setting up a clear continuity with the DSCC's ads last cycle.

    [ Parent ]
    Sorry but the best Burr ad will be the one that uses the Tax clip from the debate
    I think this clip has Patrica Madrid written all over it:
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    It's just a matter of time before Burr turns this into a really effective negative ad.

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    [ Parent ]
    I think the guy on the left is the same but the one on the right is a look-alike
    Also, nice touch with the granddaughter. Without her it would have felt too much like an exact copy of the DSCC ad.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I've been thinking for months
    that the Democrats had to revive the rocking-chair ads. Extremely inept of Marshall to let Burr beat her to it. Yes, this kind of stuff is likely to sink her for good and all.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Go Raj!
    The lesson here kids is being a d-bag doesn't always pay off

    James L
    Where do you go to law school, if you don't mind me asking?

    Everything
    is breaking hard against us.  No more denial.  Somebody go get Tekzilla from his undisclosed bunker and tell him I'm sorry, he was right.

    Rubio by double digits here.

    http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Not true
    The CNN/Time polls yesterday were fairly positive.

    As for this race, I'm moving it from tossup to lean R.  


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah but they were RV polls
    and I'm assuming (like most pollsters) a significant shift in a LV format towards Republicans.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The CNN/Time poll was of Registered voters
    so it really wasnt very positive for Dems.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    My current voter model actually still shows a toss-up
    GOP - 37%
    Democrat - 34%
    Independent - 29%

    Crist - 17/53/53 = 39%
    Meek - 0/40/10 = 17%
    Rubio - 83/7/37 = 44%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    You're giving Crist too many Democrats.
    Polls right now show Meek consistently ahead, and he's got the most upside of the three.  His first TV ad for the general was very good, and I suspect he's going to move into the low to mid 20's, making Crist's task impossible.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The math game is getting really bad for Crist
    The math is getting really bad for Crist really quickly.  Rubio seems to be consolidating the Republicans really quickly while the Independents are not breaking uniformly enough to Crist to give him a fighting chance.

    You have to wonder at what point does Meek start taking votes from Crist if Crist's numbers start falling and people decide to vote Democratic because Crist is not going to win anyway.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    I think in terms of a current snapshot, you're correct
    My hunch, however, is that many Democrats bolt to Crist once they realize Meek is simply un-electable.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    But they're not going to stay with a candidate who can't win
    Meek has to prove that he's a viable candidate, that he has a realistic chance of victory, and so long as he remains in a distant third, that's not going to happen.

    Strategic voting happens all the time, and unless Meek can show a realistic path to victory soon, I think you're going to see his support go down rather than go up.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Ive never been to high on Crist's chances
    Democrats were bound to come home once their nominee started introducing himself and Meek getting anything above 20% is pretty much game over.  And a Dem I figured would easily break that in a state like FL where the Dem base is pretty standard and liberal.

    [ Parent ]
    I thought Crist's only real chance
    Was if Greene rather than Meek was the Dem nominee. Once Meek won, I thought "game over."

    [ Parent ]
    Agree about Greene


    [ Parent ]
    Dude - we've had some good news too
    Raj Goyle, Gallup poll moving back to even, all the DCCC polls. (I'd be more excited about the Time/CNN polls if they were of likely voters)

    Come on - you can't get gloomy yet. At least wait until October.  


    [ Parent ]
    Actually the news has been pretty bad
    The news has been bad for a number of reasons:

    1) The DCCC polls weren't that great.  The polls were clearly selectively released a hid how they are doing in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.

    2)  The Gallup poll was an outlier compared to what we have seen before and since.  Even Quinnipiac has the Dems down by five.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Gallup Poll

    I have to agree with you about the Gallup poll being an outlier. I don't see how realistic it is for the Dems to gain 10 points in a week. There may be a bounce because of Iraq but not a 10 point bounce. The one silver lining now is that the Dems theoretically have more room to grow right now as Dem leaning voters in the past are not fired up to vote. If they get their base out then the gap narrows as I believe most of the Republican base is fired up and that is unlikely to really change. For every Repub leaning voter that is undecided if they will vote or not "fired up" there are probably nearly 2 Dem leaning voters in the same bucket. I think that is much easier said than done and it is not likely to significantly change enough to thwart large losses.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Okay, fine - two pieces of (slightly) good news...
    Unemployment claims are down again this week (to 450K).

    Obama's approval ticks upward in the Gallup tracking poll. (by one point).

    Sorry, that's what I got.  


    [ Parent ]
    Statistically insignificant
    Both sets of data you provided are statistically insignificant.  First, a one point gain in approval rating tells us nothing really considering it is clearly within the margin of error of the previous numbers.  Second, a two month low in weekly unemployment claims is nothing.  A week to week variation is nothing to become excited about either way.  The monthly job growth or contraction numbers are going to be what matters in the end.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    That's assuming the strongly Republican leaning sample was accurate
    Republicans are probably ahead in the tracker, but it's all too likely that Republicans didn't lead 10pts in the first place, and that THAT poll was an outlier.  They're still probably ahead 3-5pts, which makes a tie result seemingly a shift, albeit excessively to revert to the mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Ah...
    when the 10-point lead for the GOP was the largest since, what, WWII?, that would seem to me to have been the actual outlier.

    [ Parent ]
    Who comes in third
    Along with guessing who comes in first, we should start guessing who comes in third.  Is there a possibility that Crist finishes in third?

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I think Crist is more likely to win than finish third
    But both are distinct possibilities. I think in all this chaos we forgot that, although he's not great, Meek is a pretty good candidate and is not going to just step aside for Crist. His last ad (the one on the boat in the Everglades) was excellent, right down to the bus of little old ladies cheering when he said he would protect social security. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull a quarter of the vote and give Crist major headaches in Palm Beach and Broward.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    It is unlucky but possible
    I think it is possible for Crist to come in third, but unlucky.  It is nearly impossible for Rubio to come in third though.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    3rd Place for Crist more likely than 1st
    Meek's ad was good and so was his appearance on Morning Joe, BTW.  He will get the hardcore Dem base at a minimum.  

    It's a Republican against two Democrats, not hard to see who wins that one.  

    I see a Rubio-Crist-Meek finish with not that much difference between Crist and Meek.


    [ Parent ]
    Rubio and Meek
    Crist is running against the two worst candidates for him to run against.  Rubio is a mainstream conservative in the mold of mainstream conservatives that Florida has not had a problem electing in the past.  He is consolidating the Republican vote and getting a good chunk of the Republican leaning independent vote. Meek is a likable fellow and ideologically similar to most Florida Democrats.  He seems to be also consolidating his ideological kin behind him.  With Rubio and Meek doing well, where does Crist get votes?

    Crist would have had a chance if Rubio turned out to be a Flordia version of Angle, but that is simply not the case.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    It's possible, though Crist would have to fizzle-out pretty badly
    It would take Meek running a sturdy campaign and Crist not siphoning-off many Democrats. I could take my aforementioned voter model, shake-up the internals, and come up with something plausible like...

    GOP - 37%
    Democrat - 34%
    Independent - 29%

    Crist - 10/33/40 = 27%
    Meek - 0/60/25 = 27%
    Rubio - 90/7/35 = 46%

    The better Meek does, the higher Rubio's margin. I see no scenario where Meek places first or Rubio third.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Plus this poll apparently is Republican


    [ Parent ]
    Here's some good news
    although I suspect it's too late for this type of stuff to register much in 2010.  So this is probably more good news for Obama 2012 than for Dems 2010.

    http://thepage.time.com/2010/0...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    A repeat of 1996 worries me.
    Republicans end up taking Congress, the economy booms, so both the Republican Congress and the Democratic president get credit and are reelected.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    1996
    For a 1996 to happen again you need a weak Republican nominee and a Democratic President that compromises with the Republicans on a significant portion of their agenda.  We are simply too far out to know the answer to either of these questions.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I think we have evidence that points to those ingredients
    Obama has a bipartisan fetish and a lot of the Republican potential nominees strike me as weak (e.g. Palin, Gingrich).

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    He doesn't have a bipartisan fetish
    On a lot of the votes that have happened, it was just necessary for Obama to win over a couple Republicans. And most of the compromises made on HCR were with conservadems like Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln (and, of course, assholes like Joe Lieberman).

    And that's the price for having a de-facto 60 vote senate.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    PPP's Maine Congressional Numbers are out
    As several people on here suggested, Pingree and Michaud are both up but under 50. Michaud looks more vulnerable, but both look like favorites.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    That poll had strange internals
    85% of the sample in Michaud's district was 46 or older. In Pingree's district, 70% were 46 or older. Midterm electorates skew old, but they don't skew that old.  In the 2008 exit poll, only 56% of Maine voters were 45 or older.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

    41, Ind, CA-05


    [ Parent ]
    Labor Day Weekend
    Younger people are more likely to be out or away and not answer the phones on a holiday weekend.

    Michaud's worst numbers were among the 30-45 group, which was underpolled, and his best were with the 18-29 group which was way underpolled (3%? What?) With Pingree things were a little more even with voters over 30; she had a huge lead with those under 30.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Leads with independents
    He'll be fine.

    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen and SC-5: Reid and Spratt out with positive ads.
    Reid touts his work for the dairy industry:

    Spratt has constituent testimonials:


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    WV-Sen: Manchin up 5, Obama approval at 36%
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    I kinda have a hard time believing it's this close, given a) the electorate should be about 45% Democrat and b) Manchin is precisely the sort of Dem who can coalesce the party vote in WV (unlike some presidential candidates). My own model shows it at...

    Democrat - 45%
    GOP - 36%
    Independent - 19%

    Manchin - 80/27/56 = 57%
    Raese - 20/73/44 = 43%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    I agree that Manchin will unite Democrats
    But I think that Raese is capable of doing just as well with his own party as Manchin does with Democrats. If independents break 50/50 (not sure that they will, but given the environment it could happen....

    Manchin 80/20/50= 52.7%
    Raese 20/80/50= 47.3%

    Manchin still wins, but if Raese consolidates GOP support and does OK with Independents, he'll be in the fight until the end.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    I basically got called "tekzilla" when I warned about this
    Like I said before Raese has got money to burn, Obama and the Democrats in Congress are very unpopular in WV and if people like the job Manchin is doing as Governor they might want to keep him as Governor rather than have chaos in the Charleston.

    I'll link to this article from the Charleston Gazette which explains a little of the chaos that could ensue if Manchin wins:
    http://wvgazette.com/News/2010...

    If Manchin wins Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin becomes acting Governor. But the rules are ambiguous when it comes to how long Tomblin could serve. The State Senate could vote to replace him as Senate President which could make somebody else Governor.

    Also a special election to fill the Governors seat could have to occur in 2011 and then another election for a full term in 2012. So WV could have 4 different Governor in a little as 2 years.

    Voters could decided to heck with that let's keep Manchin Governor and elect a check to Obama to go to Washington.

    I see this has having all the potential for a GOP upset. Rassmussen has even moved this race to a toss up.

    While I still think Manchin is the favorite this could be the sleeper upset of 2010 and could give the GOP it's 51st vote.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Maybe some group will play "concern troll?"
    That is, a GOP third party could go on the air talking about how much West Virginia needs Joe Manchin as governor in this time of economic crisis, how we can't trust an acting governor to be ready day 1, how we can't afford to lose him to the Senate, and so on. There's certainly been shadier advertising than that in the past.

    Mario Cuomo tried something like this when he ran against Ed Koch in the Democratic primary for Governor in NY--"Keep Koch Mayor." Could we see "Keep Manchin in the Mansion?"

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Its such a smart strategy for the GOP
    that I would be shocked if they didnt do it. The slogans basically write themself and turns Manchin's job approval as Governor against him.

    The GOP can argue that a vote for Raese is a twofer. You get to keep Manchin as Governor and send Obama and the Dems in congress a message.

    If we start seeing editorials to this effect in the WV papers it could develop into a real problem for Manchin.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Ha!
    They could call it the best of both worlds.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    If Capito-Moore were the nominee sure
    But I think there is a severe overestimation of how competitive some rich dude can make a general election.

    Plus, I think people think that Democrats in West Virginia are the same as Democrats in Arkansas. Sure, there is some really strong social conservatism in West Virginia (it's why Obama lost the state by 13 points) but there is still a pretty strong union presence in WV, and there are a lot more self-described moderates in the state than Arkansas (here's something, according to the exit polls, the Conservative/Moderate/Liberal breakdown in AR was 45/41/14, in WV it was 34/48/18).

    And really, who gives a damn about what Scott Rasmussen thinks, I don't buy their numbers, and it doesn't seem like either party does either.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Hasn't Raese been up with several ads?
    Manchin just started but the fact it is negative tells you he is worried. I expect it to be quite close but I also expect this to be a hold.

    [ Parent ]
    Moore is a Republican firm
    Which tells me Kirkpatrick is probably ahead. Still, she has work to do.

    RI-Gov
    Chafee now has the endorsement of RI Future, which is RI's liberal blog. Even though Caprio is moving ahead, Chafee is clearly trying to outflank him on the left. But with Chafee's lack of resources I don't know if it will work.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    I haven't done a projection on RI-Gov in months...
    Independent - 43%
    Democrat - 38%
    GOP - 19%

    Caprio - 27/70/3 = 40%
    Chafee - 50/27/17 = 35%
    Moffitt or Robitaille - 23/3/80 = 25%

    Looks to me like Chafee needs 35% of Democrats to prevail.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]

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