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KS-04: Pompeo Leads Goyle by Only 7 Points in New SUSA Poll

by: James L.

Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 12:59 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for KWCH-TV (8/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Raj Goyle (D): 42
Mike Pompeo (R): 49
David Moffett (L): 4
Susan Ducey (RP): 1
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Todd Tiahrt's open seat isn't high on too many lists compiling Democratic takeover opportunities, but this new SUSA poll suggests that Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle is within striking distance of ex-RNC committeeman Mike Pompeo. The fact that Goyle is doing so well this early in the campaign is already a remarkable achievement -- in a district that favored McCain over Obama by 18 points, and Bush over Kerry by a whopping 30%, Goyle is already out-performing those recent Democratic base lines.

Of course, it probably helps that Pompeo is apparently a huge douchebag. Recall that the second-, third-, and fourth-place GOP primary finishers are all holding back on endorsing Pompeo, who even failed to return a congratulatory call from runner-up Jean Schodorf. His campaign was also kept busy yesterday apologizing for linking to a racist blog post on their official Twitter account that characterized Goyle, who was raised Hindu but went to Christian schools, as a "turban topper".

Still, it's gonna be incredibly hard for Goyle to get over the next hump, but you've got to like these numbers for what they are.
James L. :: KS-04: Pompeo Leads Goyle by Only 7 Points in New SUSA Poll
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KS-04: Pompeo Leads Goyle by Only 7 Points in New SUSA Poll | 127 comments
goyle's
only getting 39% of college grads?
As good as it gets
If this is even accurate which I have my doubts about.
This would be absolutely humiliating
for the GOP to lose a district like KS-4 in a supposedly republican year, to a guy with a very un-caucasian name like Raj.  It would show that their fear-mongering and class/race warfare angles pushed by the tea party will have totally blown up in their face.  


23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
Huh
You're really, really, overstating the importance of a Goyle victory.

KS-04 sent a Democrat in office for just under two decades, so it's not impossible.

Goyle is already known in part of the district due to his stint as a State Representative.

Finally, this is one House race. If this one race defines the Tea Party's success or failure, then someone could easily reverse it if Buck, Angle, or Paul wins in their respective races.

[ Parent ]
As a Kansan
... I think he's only overstating it a little. If Goyle wins, an Indian-American Democrat has just been elected to the second most conservative district in Kansas (R+14). That would be among the reddest districts anywhere represented by a Democrat--in the company of Chet Edwards (R+20), Gene Taylor (R+20), Walt Minnick (R+18), Bobby Bright (R+16), Jim Matheson (R+15), Travis Childers (R+14), Ike Skelton (R+14), and Dan Boren (R+14). Unlike most of them, Goyle isn't an uber-conservative, he's pro-choice, and not inordinately enamored with guns. It would also be among the whitest districts anywhere represented by a minority and I believe Goyle would become the state's first non-white Congressman.

The KS-04 that sent Dan Glickman to Congress was a significantly different one, thanks to redistricting (when Glickman was in office, it was pretty tightly focused on Wichita but has since sprawled to take in more conservative rural counties) Additionally, if Goyle wins, that means we've probably held AG, SoS, and Treas. and Holland probably pulled off an upset in the governor's race.

I do agree, RuralDem, that this race shouldn't be seen as a straight-up Tea Party referendum, nor as a national bellweather, but it would be pretty effing amazing if Goyle won. And this poll definitely indicates that there's a shot that he can.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Good Point
I did not know that the district was changed that much, thanks.

I'm not downplaying how amazing it would be if he won, it's just, I do not see it being any type of indicator about the Tea Party or anything else.

For instance, let's say Allen West or another black Republican wins. I doubt anyone is going to say "whoa this is a clear indication that blacks are shifting towards the GOP in droves".

Now, if there were multiple candidates like Goyle or West won, then ok, maybe there's a trend there.

One candidate in a House race is no indicator of anything other than that candidate's ability to run a successful campaign

[ Parent ]
He's keeping up on the basis
of a huge lead with. . .seniors!

Um, OK.

Remember, SUSA's crosstabs are always weird
But we can generally trust the overall numbers.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Pompeo could "Sharron Angle" this
Remember, most people said Reid was dead in the water before the Republicans nominated Sharron Angle. We don't know what happens in these kinds of races. If Pompeo keeps screwing up, the electorate may turn to the lesser known Goyle just because he's safer.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
Anyone hear from user DCCylone lately?
I've love to hear his take on this.
Been gone on vacation, returned home, and online, on Friday night. Regarding Goyle......
I met Goyle and heard him answer questions at an Indian-American political conference a few weeks ago, and he is definitely a very good candidate.  He was the 2nd-best there, behind Manan Trivedi.

Goyle beat an incumbent Republican to win his Wichita-based state Rep. seat a few years ago, and he's held it through one reelect.  So the guy knows how to campaign outside the Democratic echo chamber.

That said, while you can win locally like that by knocking on enough doors and getting in enough voters' faces to negate the ethnic name and brown skin, you can't do that in a Congressional race.  So he's going to have to find a way to disarm soft bigotry.

I'm surprised by the SUSA result simply because it's a strongly Republican district in a strongly Republican year, but Goyle's proven ability to campaign outside the base with a smaller electorate and the fact he fought to win a primary where yet he was the only major candidate make it plausible.

But I'll be surprised if 49-42 isn't ultimately Goyle's high water mark.  I just don't see how he wins unless, as another commenter suggested, Pompeo is Sharron Angle's mini-me.  Pompeo will have to really self-destruct for Goyle to actually win.  It could happen, these contested primaries in seats thought safe for a party can produce bad candidates, just like ID-01 produced Bill Sali who ultimately cost the GOP that seat.  But Pompeo's one gaffe so far isn't enough to do major damage, he's going to have to screw up much more for Goyle to make it a "choice" election and eek it out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Maybe SUSA just sucks
Witness its numbers among California's Latino voters in the senate race.
SUSA does not suck.
They are historically the best in the biz.  The perception that they have weird crosstabs is largely a function of the fact that they are very transparent with their crosstabs, so we get to see them.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Agree on crosstabs
PPP have the same problem. But SurveyUSA do seem more than a little flaky lately. Maybe there is something to the idea that fewer clients mean they are cutting costs and it is showing up in their work.
[ Parent ]
Right they don't suck
And in the past have been very relible but this cycle there polling has been all over the place espocally in CO-SEN (D and R) and in MN-Gov (D) not to mention there recent poll CA-Sen where Fiorina has a five point lead over Boxer and the crosstabs completely headscratching when most other pollsters have Boxer with a lead. That's why we been saying this about SUSA.

I like to really believe this poll and that Goyle is close with Pompreo but until someone else polls this I to take this poll with a grain of salt. Damn shame.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Indeed

[ Parent ]
"Historically"
Yeah, if you date the beginning of history about two years ago.  And they've been way off on many races.

It's not a "perception" that their crosstabs are ridiculous when it comes to minority voters.  It's a fact.  They constantly have Republicans with more AA support than any other pollster.  Having Boxer leading by 46-40 among Latinos when she hasn't gotten less than 2/3 support from that group in her past elections is just ridiculous.

I think the "perception" of them as a top pollster, will soon come to an end.

[ Parent ]
I dunno dude
if memory serves, in 2009 they had screwy results at first and then got better at the end.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
if memory serves, in 2009 they had screwy results at first and then got better at the end.
Well we'll see if they can repeat that trend but right now it's not looking good for them to do that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
They were the first
To find Bob McDonnell blowing the doors off in Virginia so there is a chance they could be right here too. People should be aware of that.
[ Parent ]
You think
they might be right in CA? Where Boxer is losing 40% of Latinos/over 1/4 of AAs?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
No
But they might be. A trend has to start somewhere.
[ Parent ]
Hell no
Espically with the AA demoraphics.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Topline could still be accurate
I would caution about jumping to a definitive conclusion until the next poll comes out. It will probably show a Boxer lead of 3-5 points but it conceivably might not. Don't rush to judgment. History does not always repeat itself.
[ Parent ]
You really think
That a majority of AA and hispanics sudenly will jump to Fiorina for no apparent reason? Come on Conspiracy, your a rational person that's crazy to think that. I don't believe a poll showing Fiorina with a five pt lead ince all the other polls show Boxer with a lead.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I said above I don't believe it
But I didn't believe their poll of Virginia a year ago when the previous polls all had Deeds down a small amount.
[ Parent ]
Yeah but that's
Creigh Deeds, this is Barbara Boxer were talking, two different people. One that people like and will vote in again (Boxer) and the other was an incompetant pol who basically ran a textbook campaign on how to lose bad statewide (Deeds).

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
The dynamics of each race
Are irrelavant. Hell, Deeds could have got close even from that kind of deficit if he had ran a competent campaign. And if this poll is accurate (I highly doubt it is) Boxer can still win because as you say she is a savvy campaigner. None of that makes this poll wrong.
[ Parent ]
There's no reason to trust in hindsight SUSA's VA-Gov polls from July/August 2009......
We can't say SUSA's July or August numbers in that race were at all vindicated simply because of the November result.  For that to be true, you'd have to argue that nothing that happened had any impact.  Being a Democratic activist in NoVA myself, I can tell you that's not true.  The candidates and campaigns mattered, not just in July and August, but also in September and October.  Deeds would not have lost by the margin SUSA predicted had the election been in July or August.

All that happened is that the polls all converged close to the election, as always happens.  We can't say definitively whether SUSA was right or wrong in July or August, but anyone with decent political sense who followed the campaign throughout knows that Deeds was not in any deep trouble that soon.  He did, indeed, dig himself a hole by going dark post-primary for way too long, but not THAT big a hole, since McDonnell himself wasn't very visible in the summer.  What happened later is what ensured not just defeat, but a large defeat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Conspiracy never said
a majority of those groups would support Fiorina, and she certainly doesn't need a majority to win. I don't even know the last time a Republican won majority support from AAs anyway.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sure sounded like it.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
not...really...
he said the SUSA poll might be accurate...and it didn't show Fiorina winning a majority of those groups, just an abnormally large chunk...haven't quite a few other pollsters historically shown oddly large AA numbers for Republicans at first that dwindle by November, though?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Where?

[ Parent ]
IMO, user conspiracy has the best handle on polling data
I've found his analyses to be on the same level as users JeffMD and Crisitunity.

He always understands the details of data collection. His mind w/r/t various polls is like a steel trap.

I've never seen him dismiss data from a credible pollster without data from other credible pollsters.

He does not jump to conclusions, as per his note here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I would caution about jumping to a definitive conclusion until the next poll comes out. It will probably show a Boxer lead of 3-5 points but it conceivably might not. Don't rush to judgment. History does not always repeat itself.

Sometimes individual notes can be misinterpreted. However, I don't see how the quoted comment could be interpreted in the way you did.

[ Parent ]
Blush
You are too kind. But thanks all the same.
[ Parent ]
However, I don't see how the quoted comment could be interpreted in the way you did.
I can.

Don't rush to judgment. History does not always repeat itself.

History in the past Hispanics and AA have heavily supported Boxer. He said history does not always repeat itself which to me is suggesting he's saying they will al flock to Fiorina, which is bogus to begin with.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Don't put words in his mouth
Even if he thinks she'll do better with them than normal that doesn't mean he thinks she'll win a majority of them like you said.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
("she" being Fiorina)


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I was referring to the fact
The SurveyUSA poll of CA-Sen last month was a clear outlier. It may not be this time.
[ Parent ]
Okay, I interpret that differently
To me

"History does not always repeat itself"

=

"There may be a rare case where there is a change"

Parsing, the key phrase is "does not always". To me that means something approaching, but less than 100%.

In any case, one nagging fear that I have is of a Prop 8 backlash among highly religious minority voters -- if gay marriage is allowed again in CA before election day. I think it highly unlikely, but not impossible.

[ Parent ]
Everyone gets better at the end
Is there a pollster who gets worse as the election gets closer?  
[ Parent ]
I think the "perception" of them as a top pollster, will soon come to an end.
Agreed.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
And then there will be no top pollster
And I will rejoice.
[ Parent ]
i know this isn't an open thread (sorry)
but it's too hilarous/depressing to wait. Alvin GreenE has been indicted for showing porn to a college girl.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Words cannot express about what I feel about that man
I'll leave it at that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Can we not get rid of him
if he's been indicted? Geesh. Why couldn't Democrats find a better candidate than Vic Rawl, a little known Charleston judge who raised no money and lost to this some dude.
[ Parent ]
Because it's South Carolina


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
yes they can
the real question is, "will they"?
[ Parent ]
As if Democrats didn't have enough problems.
Do we need Greene, Rangel, Waters and Blago to be in court the next few months?
[ Parent ]
i hate blago BUT
he may beat the rap
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
A partial verdict usually means convictions on at least some of the resolved counts. And this is the feds -- if you are convicted on even one count, the sentence is usually the same as if you had gone down on all of it. Acquitted conduct can be used to increase your sentencing guidelines. I bet he spends most of the rest of his life in prison
[ Parent ]
but
i just don't see it(i hope i am wrong);if he spends (actual time)more than 5 years in prison i will be shocked
[ Parent ]
I doubt these will matter much
Republicans have their own slimy candidates out there right now.  The rhetoric could fly back and forth but I think ethics is a loser for both sides.  Each side has issues they can champion to far greater effect.
[ Parent ]
Please don't do this in the future
We typically do two open threads a day around here, plus an extra one on Fridays. So really, don't derail threads. Just wait. If it's that important, then post a diary. (And I can tell you that Alvin Greene's indictment was not diary-worthy.)
[ Parent ]
I'm having a hard time believing SurveyUSA as of late
I don't doubt a Democrat could pull somewhat of a decent number in this district, but with their odd California numbers, I doubt they are anymore accurate here.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Hmm…
This does not seem right, I will need to see some more polling to back it up. I would love for us to win but this just seems too good to be true. We really need to see some more data. Markos!


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Never thought I'd say this but
I'd be interested to see internals. From both sides. I mean if Goyle got a poll like this it might be smart to release it, and knowing internal polls he can probably manufacture a poll that's even better than this.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
We need an open thread today, lol
So many ads and bits of news I want to announce.  
Any guesses if this has to do with
Raj hitting the airwaves early for his primary race and getting his ID up

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
Perhaps, but still
Pompeo was up with more than half a million in advertising in his competitive primary. It could just be that this is an area traditionally receptive to strong, conservative Democrats. Dan Glickman held this seat from the early 1980s to the early 1990s when he narrowly lost in an upset. Sebelius did well here in Gubernatorial races too.  
[ Parent ]
i think you are over analyzing here
(though your points are valid)i think this poll mainly shows that pompeo is an asshole(even to folks that would be his "natural" constituency)
[ Parent ]
Obama got in the low 40s here so it isn't that amazing a D could do well.
I doubt Raj will catch up but it shows how the R's have hurt themselves this cycle nominating unlikeable candidates.

It isn't "perception" that SurveyUSA is the best. In both of Nate Silver's pollster ratings they've scored in the top 1% of best polling operations. The data was taken from the past ten years and shows they are very dependable. Like an earlier poster said they were ahead of the curve in 09' as well.  

folks here
need a reality check about democrats actually turning out in november(susa is showing us the way);this particular poll simply points out that 'all politics is local'(meaning pompeo is an unlikable asshole even to republicans)
[ Parent ]
Reality check?
Nonsense. Pompeo is a Republican running in a heavily Republican district in a heavily Republican year. I don't care how much of an asshole he is he is gonna win just like other GOP assholes like Bachmann and Vitter.
[ Parent ]
yes
reality check about dem turnout(my point is AGRREEINGwith yours)
[ Parent ]
Apologies
But still, most posters here have little illusion about the likely Democratic turnout deficit.
[ Parent ]
all
i will say to that is just check the posts on the various primary day threads(i am still seeing some folks posting that due to the tea-bagging crewe we may actually WIN seats)and you will see some naive comments
[ Parent ]
Here?
At SSP? Maybe a couple oddballs may think that (not that I've seen anybody suggesting it) but the vast majority agree with the MSM CW. That isn't to say some GOP candidates may well cost them seats they could and should have won. The best example being Sharron Angle but there are others.
[ Parent ]
Most of the posters here don't believe the MSM
If they did they believe the Dems would win 50 seats in the House, 10 in the Senate and control of Congress. Most don't believe that by a longshot. The Tea Bagger candidates are helping Democrats retain seats like in CO for example.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
That is the GOP CW
Chuck Todd doesn't believe it. Rothenberg isn't there yet. I was referring to the idea that Republicans are in for a stellar year. Nothing more.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
What I just said was basically the GOP CW and none of the major pundits like Todd or even Stu Rothenberg don't believe it. I agree with that and I also agree with you that the Republicans are in for a stellar year. Nothing more.    

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Correction lose, not win.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
agree
with you completely(my hope is that we keep getting the sharon angle's and dan maes's of the world nominated);sadly, i can actually see a rand paul winning in this type of year(and though less likely, even a joseph cao)
[ Parent ]
I don't know about Cao
Wait until the primary to make assumptions like that. As for Paul, yes and that's because of the state he's running in. I mean look at who he's succedding for Christ sake.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
once again
you miss the point; the point is simple; in no year other than this one would joseph cao be considered anything but a SURE loser
[ Parent ]
I'm not missing any point Arlen
And there's no certainty in a D+20 some district under the normal circumstances that Cao would win. No certainty regardless of the year.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
(i am still seeing some folks posting that due to the tea-bagging crewe we may actually WIN seats)and you will see some naive comments
What naive comments? Because people on here who think this year may not be as bad as '94 were naive and because we could win because a Tes Bagger fave wins were naive? Wrong man. This year is far from '94 when some dude Republicans got swept insimply because of the R next to their name. And having the tea bagger faves like Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, Dan Maes and Ken Buck help because they can become unelectable due to their extreme views and gaffes. Yeah we can win seats because of those people.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Even a GOP pollster
Says it is more like 1982.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

And he is correct.

[ Parent ]
The 1982 Election
Where the Democrats won a net gain of 27 seats and 1 in the Senate. Yeah he's correct and I agree with you that he's correct because that's what i'm pegging the results to be a loss of 25-30 net in the House and 5 in the Senate.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I think there will be between 220-230
House Dems and 52-54 Senate Dems.
[ Parent ]
I see it right now like 1982
25-30 seats in the House and 2-4 in the Senate.  At the end of the day, I see us losing N Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware, and maybe Pennsylvania in the Senate.  I predict we hold onto Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and the rest.  We'll pick up Florida, and possibly one or two of Ohio, Missouri, and Kentucky.

[ Parent ]
Said it before
2008-2012 is 1980-1984 all over again in reverse. No doubt in my mind.
[ Parent ]
After actually looking at the results from those three elections
I concur. I bigger loss of 30 in the House and 5 in the Senate similar to '80 and '82 in 2010 and a smaller loss in '12 like in '84. I can see that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I include the presidency in that

[ Parent ]
What does the Presidential election have to do with this
1982 was a off year.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
1980 to 1984
2008 to 2012. In other words incumbent party goes down because of terrible economy. The new incumbent party gets blamed for things not turning round quickly enough. The incumbent party is easily returned because things do turn around eventually.
[ Parent ]
So basically
Your asumption of this go like this:

2008=1980. Bush screws up, GOP loses WH and Dems flip it plus gain more seats in Congress

2010=1982. Off year election, party in power loses seats. Dems lose about 30 seats in House and 5 in the Senate

2012=1984. Obama wins big. Dems gain seats due to the GOPers fresh in Congress didn't turn around the country fast enough. Dems gain seats.

Is that what i'm getting from your post Conspiracy?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Not quite
1980 and 2008 = incumbent party loses WH and gets thrashed in Congressional races.

1982 and 2010 = incumbent party perceived not to have turned things round quickly enough so gets Congressional thrashing.

1984 and 2012 = incumbent president easily re-elected due to recovering economy but without coattails.

[ Parent ]
Without coattails in the Senate
Because of the tough map. Breaks roughly even instead. Incumbent party gains seats in the House.
[ Parent ]
Right
I mean that yeah willbe tough in the Senate from the get go because we have to defend Begich and Ben Nelson's seat but odds are Nelson will retire and it will be just like whats going on with ND-Sen. But yes there will be gains in the House.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Begich is up in 2014

[ Parent ]
Actually I think I was on the mark on what you said in your assumptions through history
I was correct in the 1980 is 2008 analogy. I was right on the 2010 is 1982 analogy although I didn't say "Thrashing" because it won't be a thrashing and the 1984 is 2012 is somewhat right because I said the Prez would easily to re-elected I just didn't say he had cottails but I believe we will net gain a few seats. What did I say that was incorrect?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
If Dems lose around 30 House seats
As I expect I would call that a thrashing. I posted before I intended. See update. We are on the same page.
[ Parent ]
My mistake on Mark Begich
But we still got both Nelsons to defend and Claire McCaskill and that will be a chore.

See that's where we disagree a thrashing is the GOP gaining 50 seats in the House, 10 in the Senate and Boehner and McConnell running Capitol Hill. To me losing 30 seats in House and 5 in the Senate is far from a thrashing, it's expected. But with the rest, yes we are indeed on the same espically with the historical analogies.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Semantics
I think we can agree whatever we call it the result isn't good! But not the end of the world either. I believe that is just after Obama is re-elected in a landslide according to the Mayans.
[ Parent ]
Right
Whatever the case it's not good. It's expected though and you know that. It's a off year election and the party in power loses seats (i.e us) add in the fact we havd had two successful elections and the Tea Party out on the streets makes a 30 seat Republican gain a reality. Wish I can prevent it but it's a off year election and you had to know this was coming. Yes the results are not good but it's not the end of the world as regardless Boehner won't be Speaker and McConnell won't be Senate leader and in '12 Obama will win in a landslide and we will maake gains in the Congress.

BTW:

I believe that is just after Obama is re-elected in a landslide according to the Mayans.  

That joke is full of win.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Who said I was joking!
;)
[ Parent ]
Oh no were all going to die!!!
The conspiracy theorist were right all along the world will end in 2012 and our President is a Nazi and Leninist!!!

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Lee Harvey Oswald
There is a difference between a Communist and a Marxist-Leninist. I understand the GOP believe the former to be correct. The are always wrong.
[ Parent ]
They are wrong
First he's a socialist, then he's a communist, next he's a Marxist-Leninist, next he's a Nazi and I read one person call his polcies very Trotsky like. Jesus Christ with these people. Pick a fear word and stick with it will ya. Plus don't these people know there a difference on the political spectrum between all the ideologies I mentioned?

Oswald, he wasn't a Communist but a Marxist-Leninist. I remember from the Kevin Costner movie JFK.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Link
http://educationforum.ipbhost....

I'm going way off topic but you might find this interesting.

[ Parent ]
To be fair
This whole thread is off topic but thanks for sharing this.

So basically what I get is there was never really communism but socialist, Lenin and Stalin didn't see eye to eye ideology wise (also Lenin hated Stalin and told his people never let that man gain control of the country) and Oswald was not a Communist nor a Marxist-Leninist but a socialist. Regardless if i'm right or wrong very intrestring reading.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Who knows what he was
Where do you think my name comes from! But seriously we had best leave it there before we get told off.
[ Parent ]
Well your name is Conspiracy
So it could of came from a viriety of events, JFK being the biggest hence your name. Got to admit greatest kept secret in American history. Awful thing to say but it's true. But your right we better end it here before James and David kicks us out of SSP. But I want to thank you and Arlen for a good friendly debate.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
see my post above
i mostly agree with your comment but folks like rand paul could actually win(and if that happens we are in for a very bad year this november; i think paul will provide us a decent 'bellwether' on e-day, mainly because in any other year a candidate of the quality of a jack conway would be beating a candidate like a rand paul badly)
[ Parent ]
Ah don't give me that crap
That were in for a very bad year in November. This is not '94 and the Republicans are not going to win Congress. Rand Paul will win only because of the state he's in. Buck won't win, Maes won't win, Angle barely won't win. This year isn't as bad as you think. This isn't '94 and you sound like a news anchor from Faux talking like that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
you
have an amazing ability to write statements that infer things that i never argued pro or con(making your assumptions useless becuase you are arguing with things i have never posted);IN NO POST of mine do i say that we will lose either house of congress(mainly because i think just the OPPOSITE)
[ Parent ]
IN NO POST of mine do i say that we will lose either house of congress(mainly because i think just the OPPOSITE)
No you did, when you said this will be a very bad year for the Dems what the hell you think you mean by that. By having a very bad year equals John Boehner as Speaker and Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Reality Check?
No. Like what the other poster said that yes Pompeo is a asshole but he's running in a R+10 and over district in a GOP year. He'll fit in with Michele Bachmann and the rest of the lunatics that make up the Tea Party wing of the GOP. Plus we don't know if this poll is good or not given SUSA quirky polling this year. When another pollster (say PPP) corraborates this thrn i'll believe it. But not turn this poll into an example for turnout.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
yes
and even though they are assholes they will STILL win(mainly because the democrats currently are in disarray)because our side is not likely to turnout
[ Parent ]
mainly because the democrats currently are in disarray
You sound like the moronic drive by MSM when you talk like that. Don't do it. Second, even if there are in didarray (which there not to an extent) that's not going to matter much in this red district. Even if our side turnout, there's no guarentee Goyal will win. Sucks because he's a State Rep who can raise money. But wrong year, wrong district. Turnout won't effect this race.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
needless to say
i disagree with your post; turnout WILL matter in this race and EVERY other race in the country(we have the majority party but we don't have the enthusiasm yet;our party is in disarray, thankfully michael steele is such a disaster that the repubs are not yet capitalizing on it)
[ Parent ]
Our party is not in disarray
Just because turnout for us won't be on a 2008 level does not equal disaster. Remember this is a off year election and the party in power traditionally loses seats (i.e us) and add in the fact the voters that put us in power in Congress and the WH don't comes out in droves because

1. They feel there work is done and won't be needed until '12

and

2. Alot of Obama voters that came out in droves won't be there because alot of them (youth and AA) are unreliable.

So in point our party is not in disarray (BTW stop that, you sound like fucking Chris Mathews when you say that). There just lazy if you want specifics.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
They were great in '06 and '08
and possibly in '04 (I wasn't a close poll-watcher then).

I'm not entirely sure why they seem somewhat flaky this time.  I suspect it's that all the robopollsters might be struggling with the relatively high proportion of unreliable respondents this year.  Human pollsters can screen these out more effectively.

[ Parent ]
So Kerry got about 34%,
Obama about 40%, and Goyle is polling at 42%.

Which is great.  But the national trend- an average- happens to be +1% liberal Democratic baseline shift per year for about the last 15 years.

In 5-10 years this could well be a Democratic seat. I like watching majority Republican-voting cities and metro areas flip.  The last list I saw of these was pretty short already and the cities left on it are ever smaller.

Oddly enough a similar thing is happening
in Oklahoma; it's becoming normal; i.e. the Democratic rural areas are going hardcore Republican, while the cites like Wichita, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City, are starting to moderate, (for instance the traditionally ironclad Republican OK-05, based on OKC, was easily Obama's best district in Oklahoma and the only one he got 40+ percent in. OKC and Tulsa were the only two areas were there was a significant shift to Obama over Kerry in that state).

A different kind of flip is happening in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, there it's a demographic flip, but in these other midwestern cases, (Omaha and Lincoln included), the urban voters are simply shifting more towards Democrats as most urban areas in the country have done already.

[ Parent ]
Yep, it's happening all over

IIRC Charlotte flipped Democratic in 2008.  In the East the last Republican stronghold cities are places like Richmond, Lynchburg, Kannapolis, and upstate South Carolina.

You're right about the rural areas going from conservative Democratic to Republican, and the cities and then suburbs going from Republican to moderate/liberal Democratic.

I have no love for Republican government, but places that elect Republicans tend to be better off and modernizing faster than those usually pretty dismal places that elect the really conservative Democrats.  That's the silver lining I see to the apparent slew of conservative Democratic losses in the South this year.  These places have presumably shaped up to the point where they feel they can afford Republican representation (or nonrepresentation, whichever the case may be).

[ Parent ]
but places that elect Republicans tend to be better off and modernizing faster than those usually pretty dismal places that elect the really conservative Democrats
I have seen that, espically in rural Western PA and to some extent suburban Westmoreland County, PA (where I live). Question is why do you think that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Economic transition, imho

Classical conservative Dem country is rural or small town and pretty run down.  The people mostly live hand to mouth and go to church.  They're know they're not competitive in the big picture, which depresses them and they get/stay out of touch with national trends and national news.  They confine themselves to the local (which can get very bizarre).  They have their local newspapers which contain everything that interests them most, and the local grapevine.  They agree among themselves that they need all the economic help they can get- the federal programs, the earmarks, the grants to schools, the clinics,  heating oil subsidies, farm subsidies, union jobs.  But they like the Republican nominee for President- he's right with God and he's gonna kick some ass.

The flip to electing Republicans comes when enough people feel better off and say that it's time for the other folks on the government dole to shape up.  The McMansions and megachurches and SUVs begin to pop up in quantity as do office parks with companies that require a significant number of white collar office drones.  Average people start having loud opinions about everything in the country, most of them poorly informed and parroted from some low quality electronic national news networks.  They become competitive and resentful- a lot of pent up anger wants out.  But they've become actively engaged in the national drama and open to more change.  They won't necessarily accept further change.  But their kids realize it's not optional if they want to remain relevant and competitive among their peers.

As I think about it, it's all about transition from the agrarian and old style industrial economy where most people are working class (miners, farmers, factory workers) and/or poor to some amount of "post-industrial" economy and more people in lower middle class jobs.

[ Parent ]
I believe Charlotte voted for Kerry, maybe even
Gore, not sure. And I'm pretty sure the city of Richmond itself is overwhelmingly Democratic. Also worth noting that Obama won Henrico County, VA by double digits.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I don't think this is off base
Even in a year like this, this is a fairly credible number.

1. Pompeo just won a nasty primary and the wounds haven't healed yet.

2. The district is Republican, but has a some areas of historic Democratic allegiance (the rural south eastern counties) and a Democratic base of sorts in Wichita. This is the district that Dan Glickman represented. It can elect Democrats.

3. This is an open seat - with very credible candidates for both parties, open seats tend to be more competitive than incumbent held seats, even in wave elections.

4. Goyle has been widely praised as a strong candidate, a good campaigner who has won in a Republican district for the legislature. He's definitely a great recruit for the seat.

5. For whatever it is worth, Tiahart won't be on the ballot for Senate, so any potential enthusiasm and  coat-tails in his home district won't benefit Pompeo in November.

Does that mean that Goyle is likely to win? Odds are no. 42% is a long leap to 50%. Pompeo will probably consolidate Republican support and win the election. If I were betting right now, I'd imagine a 55% 45% split for Pompeo a solid win for the Republicans, but very respectable showing for Goyle.

But that doesn't rule out a candidate like Pompeo somehow managing to implode and give Goyle a shot at an upset.  He seems like enough of a jerk and a wing-nut that he could make it happen.

The dynamics of the district and  the candidates make 49-42 sound like a fairly credible poll result for this point in the race - something the DCCC and donors should be looking at as they strategize where resources are going to go and where upsets might be possible.

Susan Ducey
Isn't the Fox and Friends doofus from Kansas too? Different spelling but all the same!
Oh holy crap.
I clicked on that racist blog post story.  Holy........

The post was written by Bob Pinkstaff of Wichita, a retired Marine gunnery sergeant who claims the country is being invaded by Mexicans and Muslims and that only Christians should hold public office.

As a retired Marine, what part of uphold the Constitution's Article VI, Section 3 does he not understand?

Don't be silly
To conservatives the Constitution only applies to the bits they like. From the same stable as the 14th Ammendment furore starting to build.
[ Parent ]
What parts of the constitution do they hate so far
The 14th Amendment obviously due to gay marriage, the US borne thing, and of course equality.  The 17th is awful because it tells states how to pick Senators (through democracy).  They hate the 1st because it's being used to build a mosque not even on the same block as the former WTC towers.  These people dont understand that the federal government overrules the states in nearly all cases and that nullification is unconstitutional, which leads to them not knowing how to apply the 10th Amendment as well.

What have I missed?  Does the Mormon faction think we should un-repeal the prohibition amendment and change the constitution further?

Oh, and flag burning and a constitutional amendment to not allow gay marriage.

For a group of fundamentalist constitutionalists who think everything the Founding Fathers thought was pure genius (as if they all thought the same thing), they sure do want to change a lot of it!  Us as liberals sure have our own ideas of constitutional amendments (EC, campaign finance) but these arent discussed on CNN.

Although let's not generalize this as conservatives.  I can disagree with but understand conservatives, this is mainly a tea-bagger/get me through the primary position and it's fucking bonkers!

[ Parent ]
Although let's not generalize this as conservatives. I can disagree with but understand conservatives, this is mainly a tea-bagger/get me through the primary position and it's fucking bonkers!
I can concur with that. I know alot of conservatives and none fit this mold. The conservatives I know are traditional conservatives who believe in low taxes,less government, atrong military.Nothing extreme. The type of people you mentioned Andrew are the extremeists, the birthers, tenthers, tea baggers and people who only abide to what is said in the Constitution despite the fact the Constitution was not to be interpeted literally word for word but for something to look at for guidence for basic lawa and rules since it's very narrow and not specific and have the courts and lower governments take it from there and interper it from there. The only constitutions that you maybe can take word for work because there very specific are state constitutions, espically New York's.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Oh don't get Conservativea started on the Constitution
They believe what they want and the stuff they don't like (ex 14th Admendment) they either ignore or alter it to their perception. Don't even get them started on the 10th Admendment.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
KS-04: Pompeo Leads Goyle by Only 7 Points in New SUSA Poll | 127 comments

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