I'm starting to think

that the Alaska some dude (Joe Miller)will actually do better in his primary than J.D. Hayworth does in his primary.

---

by: trhawk @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 19:04:37 PM UTC

Isn't it weird

that this Some Dude looks somewhat like the former First Dude of Alaska (Todd Palin), except of course, Some Dude is not a separatist.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:13:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are POS

Rasmussen in disguise?

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 19:31:13 PM UTC

More likely Ras is POS in disguise

POS doesn't hide their affiliation.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:05:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's evident

from some of their topline numbers.  53-28 in OH-12, a mildly democratic district at the national level?  Come on now.  Unless if virtually everybody 45+ is voting republican as a bloc here, that number is impossible.  This is a district that is zooming to the left at the national level, and is going to be out underneath of Tiberi by at latest the middle of the next decade if the lines aren't redrawn.  Columbus is the only major city in Ohio that is retaining young people well, and the job situation in Columbus metro isn't nearly as bleak as it is in other parts of the state and country (under 8% in both Franklin and Delaware counties, most of the 12th's population, in May), so it's hard to believe that they'd be turning this hard against Team Blue.  

It's for reasons like these that I've been more bullish about Mary Kilroy's re-election chances over in OH-15 too.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:53:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting article on the GOP's plan B if Capito doesn't run

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Party strategists seem to think she won't run  They list as back up candidates "Bob Adams, the executive director of the League of American Voters, and John Raese (R), a Morgantown businessman who took 34% of the vote against Byrd in '06."  While the article doesn't list her, I've heard former SoS Betty Ireland's name thrown around elsewhere, though I know little else about her.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:09:39 PM UTC

John Raese is a gadfly

he owns half the media in the state, spent millions attacking Byrd and couldn't crack 35%. But that being said he could probably muscle out the 64 year old Ireland if she decided to run.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:50:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Look at 1984 though

He lost to Rockefeller by a very small margin, despite being outspent 12-1.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 22:22:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

1984

In '84, Rockefeller probably would have lost if he hadn't bought ads on Pittsburgh and DC TV stations.

---

by: emilysdad @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 02:35:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Appointed?

I don't think Gov. Parnell was "appointed" to the position.  He was the elected Lt. Gov.  Unless it was also "appointed" President Lyndon Johnson.  It would work when discussing appointed Vice President Ford, but gets murky when referencing President Ford, who wasn't appointed to the position but ascended to it.

---

by: cclub79 @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:09:45 PM UTC

Regarding Politico Article on 'No Comment'

Don't they have a more normal picture of Sharron Angle? Every photo I've seen of her either looks like she's a bit nutty or her smiling in that really creepy way.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:23:44 PM UTC

That IS her normal! The nutty/creepy pictures aren't fit for family viewing! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 20:45:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I guess if voters base their choice on appearance

then Harry Reid is definitely back in next year. If I'd had to choose, even as a conservative leaning person, I'd pick the comatose but calm Reid over the crazy face of Angle.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 02:40:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No surprise about David Malpass

He's way more moderate than Carl Paladino, who himself is far to the right of most New York Republicans. My suspicion is, given the lack of excitement about the race, Bruce Blakeman probably wins the GOP line. Joe DioGuardi wind up on both the Conservative and Paladino lines, but, whatever, I can't see him getting more than 5%. Indeed, I see this at around a 60-35-5 victory for Gilly.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 21:28:00 PM UTC

WV-Sen: AG says Gov can call special election

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

I doubt Manchin would have asked for an opinion if he didn't already know the answer, but it looks like the wheels are turning for a special this November.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 22:48:51 PM UTC

I doubt he would have asked

If he didn't want to run himself this year.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 10:07:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Louisiana Filing: Day 2

Not much went on this time. Rodney Alexander got a teabagger challenge in his primary. Democrats still have no candidate for LA-01, 05, 06, 07, or for Lt. Governor.

Senate: Michael Karlton Brown (I), Sam Houston Melton Jr. (I)
LA-04: Artis Cash (I)
LA-05: Todd Slavant (R)
Lt. Governor: Sammy Kershaw (R), Melanie McKnight (R)

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 22:53:33 PM UTC

Kershaw

Kershaw ran last time as well.

"She Don't Know She's Beautiful" is his best song.

If he wins this time maybe it'll inspire Tim McGraw to finally run for office in TN.

---

by: RuralDem @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 06:22:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Hardball" beats up on Sharron Angle

   Chris Mathews beat the snot out of Angle tonight for her comments about the "slush fund."  There will be more to come, count on it.  Her campaign is in trouble too.  I hear more and more about shouting matches between the local types who have supported her for ages taking on the Washington types, few as they are, who have attempted to civilize her. This animosity has spilled over into her coffee clutch supporters most of whom feel that anyone from Washington that comes to tell them what Their candidate should do might as well get back on the plane.  They are mad as hell and not going to take it!  I support them a hundred percent on that score.  She is stupid and they are proud of it!  Karl Rove wastes his money in NV. Even the issue of Scientology has taken a back seat to the new cult:
"Sharrontology"  I will watch with great interest as the conservative groups pump money into this sinkhole.  But how long will they continue to do so until they write her off??

Rollo "Rob" Weems

---

by: RolloWeems @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 22:57:12 PM UTC

"Energized" Republicans does not lead to electing Republicans

Either a mainstream person beats the wingers, and the wingers pout, or the wingers win and they can't win in the general election.

There is an epic fail at work here.  A box of sand could beat Reid, but Angle won't.

---

by: tommypaine @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 23:33:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does "Energized" Mean Turnout?

I'm tired of this "energized" voter serving as a measure for turnout. If those who would turn out anyway are really excited about voting, it's still only one vote per person. And many unenthusiastic people still vote, if only out of a sense of civic duty.

I don't see the point of using "enthusiasm" as a proxy for the likelihood of voting when you could, well, just ask people how likely they are to vote.

---

by: dsimon @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 23:58:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Energized means nothing in itself

All the clucking chickens think a pissed off person's vote is worth more than a even-tempered one, but of course it does not.  Also, it is not "energized" that matters.  It is "unenergized" that matters.  If every energized person runs to the polls, and every unenergized one walks, that "energy" has no value at all.  

As I mentioned though, energized has it's very negative side.  Angle will lose.  Paul is far more likely to lose than Grayson would have been.  If Inglis and Bennett would have been from competitive districts/states we'd be looking at a couple of pickups.

An "energized" Republican party is a self-destructive one.  So far most of the Republican "energy" has been extremely helpful to Democrats.

On top of that, PPP shows Mccain voters turning to federal Democrats net more than Obama to Republicans in most places, so these "energized" Republicans have to overcome losing voters on top of needing Obama voters to turnout at a level far lower than McCain voters.

---

by: tommypaine @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 00:13:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Energized is relative to the mean of a gaussian (or perhaps some other statistical) distribution

That assumes people with some sense of civic duty vote, even if they're not as energized.

So if the average level of energy is higher, more can be expected to vote.

There are exceptions of course, based on bi-modal (or multi-model) distributions. But as I don't see a lot of diversity in the Tea party population, multiple modes in their behavior seems unlikely.

From http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-... , 28% of voters consider themselves Tea Party types.

It would be a shock if turnout in 2010 exceeds 40%.

If say 80% of tea partiers vote, they'd make up a majority of voters in 2010, and we lose.  

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 04:08:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Tea partiers" are not a definable group; it's a fiction that they're a constituency......

There are conservatives and conservative-leaning Republicans and conservative-leaning independents.  That's the Republican base.  There are no "tea partiers."  These people who show up for protests calling themselves "tea partiers" are no more a constituency than were Iraq War protesters on our side in 2004/2006.  These "tea partiers" are merely members of the Republican base and the same people who've always voted, and always voted Republican.

There are a lot of conservatives and Republicans who object ideologically to what Washington Democrats have been doing.  That is predictable and not noteworthy as anything "new" just because some proportion of these dissenters call themselves "tea partiers" in public opinion surveys or actually attend what are billed as "tea party" protests.

The treatment of the "tea party" as a constituency is the biggest mistake the political media makes, and a mistake I think Republican political professionals have made.  This is part of their party's base, yes, and yes they have to tend to self-identifying "tea partiers" just as they tend to any part of the base.  But they are NOT a distinct bloc with their own peculiar set of interests.  Pro-life groups are a bloc with a definable interest.  Business lobbies and their members are a bloc with definable interests.  Anti-immigration activists are a bloc with a definable interest.  But these tea partiers are angry conservatives who are much less organized and much more scattered in their interests, because by their terms they're just angry conservatives with a broad range of ideological grievances.

It's an error to pretend that tea partiers are some distinct part of the electorate like Hispanics or black voters or union members, where some percentage of turnout could sink us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 13:40:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For the purpose of 2010, I think they are a constituancy

Take a look at the "what they believe" list shown http://www.usatoday.com/news/p...

Besides their mostly white R nature, they almost are universally anti-government, afraid of terrorism, anti-D.

It works as a constituency, as they are out of power. I believe that supports my contention that they are effectively a singular group with a gaussian distribution -- with a small sigma (little diversity).

It is based on anger -- something that blinds them to facts.

OTOH, what you say suggests that the "Tea party" would fall apart if they took any of the levers of power. I think your points make sense in a post-2010 world where Ds have lost one (or --shudder-- both) House of Congress.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 13:57:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your link to the USA story and lists just prove my point, they're not a constituency......

That's a broad range of unrelated issues for a group to share common opinions.

And they share exactly the same opinions in virtually the same proportions as another group of people we call "the Republican Party."

"Tea partiers" are just conservative Republicans.  The only thing that might or might not distinguish tea partiers from all other conservatives and Republicans is, as you point out, they are angry.

But that's like distinguishing a liberal and/or Democratic voter who opposes the Iraq War, from a liberal and/or Democratic voter who opposed it and was angry about it and maybe attended one or more anti-war protests.

It's a distinction without any political significance.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 14:38:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The difference is

Tea party types are more likely to vote due to their anger. Republicans are for smaller government. Tea party types are for no government (ref Rahm). (Yes, they aren't for anarchy, but I don't claim that they're logical.)

Tea party attitudes are something not seen in establishment R circles (though mainstream Rs are trying to co-opt such concepts, which makes it harder to distinguish.)

One question between now and November is what will happen to that anger. Will the mean level (statistically) move higher or lower on the scale?

One danger is the mania -- it resembles what I've read about where democracies turn to strongmen to lead. (Yes, this is the opposite of no government.) I suspect the mania also tends to minimize the spread in the statistical distribution on whether they're going to vote.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 15:23:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't see those distinctions in your linked story or elsewhere......

Well, the one distinction I'll grant is anger.  The teabaggers are an angry bunch, much more so than others.  That's why they're teabaggers, as teabaggery is a venting vehicle.

But everything else in the article you linked on that list of things teabaggers believe are things that Republicans generally believe, and conservatives generally believe, in the same proportions.

You suggest teabaggers are more likely than other Republicans to vote because of their anger, but that's because they're just angry and motivated conservative Republicans, not because as teabaggers they're an identifiable constituency.  They're just angry conservatives.

My point is that the only relevant organizational political vehicle for people who identify as and with teabaggers is the Republican Party.  These people are just base Republicans who've been showing up and voting Republican every cycle for forever-and-a-day.  I'd say there probably aren't many, perhaps not even any, "new" or "infrequent" voters in the bunch.  These are people who've always been hyperengaged, but now they stand out as angry instead of sitting quietly in the background as satisfied, as they were in the Dubya era.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 19:34:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let me put it a different way

Imagine the R party without the Tea party. Imagine non-Tea party types like Graham, Lugar, Inglis, and Bennett working on real legislation. It would be a party interested in governing, with leaders who are willing to compromise with Ds to "get things done".

The Tea party does not fit that description. I'll grant that it's certainly not a definable bloc per se, as traditional blocs actually have policies (other than no).

Nevertheless, they are a definable group -- or if you prefer, a sub-group which defines how anti-D voters are "energized" this year.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 20:41:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think calling them a sub-group of the Republican Party

would be a very apt description.  I really liked DCCCyclone's Iraq War protest example.  Imagine if all those protesters instead called themselves the Iraq Party or something.  It'd the exact same situation, "ZOMG, they called themselves a party!"  

I read all of those articles and I just think how moronic the media is being.  The only time the tea-party becomes an actual party is when they lose getting their person as the GOP nominee.  And then they end up blowing the election for the GOP.  And when they do succeed, they create more opportunities for us as well.

The tea-party is simply the GOP base coming out and they are PISSED.

---

by: Andrew @ Sat Jul 10, 2010 at 15:30:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank You

The tea party is not an independent political movement per se, but if it was, it would be something along the lines of the Perot types in the early 1990s.  They are just upset about a bunch of disjointed issues that are not ideologically coherent.

Your comparison of them with the anti-war movement is very interesting.  The anti-war movement was even more disjointed.  You had hippies and paleoconservative hippy bashers all under the same tent bashing the Iraq War.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Tue Jul 13, 2010 at 19:17:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carter Peterson wont run in La-02

http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 23:04:08 PM UTC

Looks like it'll be over in August instead of October

Richmond and LaFonta both seem like good guys, and I'll probably volunteer for whichever wins.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 00:17:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hate both of them

While KCP is much more liberal, she is actually a thoughtful, smart woman who has more reasons to be elected than "I am black", which is Richmond and LaFonta's argument.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 00:59:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't LaFonta Hispanic?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

---

by: xcave @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 17:02:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What a dumb comment

Seriously?  

---

by: panhandler @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 17:42:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not dumb

When one went on TV and said Cao can't represent district b/c not black, and other said there was a reason a majority black district is required in LA, and its not b/c a non-black Republican can represent it.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 18:32:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read your comment again

LaFonta never said vote for me because I'm black. Do you really think Juan LaFonta who is black/hispanic and has a hispanic name is going to run on a "vote for me because I'm black" platform against Cedric Richmond or Cao.  

---

by: panhandler @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 18:50:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LA-02

And LA-02 was created so a black Democrat would represent it. Doesn't mean a non-black Republican can't win it (with plenty of help).

---

by: panhandler @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 18:55:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

GA-Attorney General (D): An ad that left me speechless

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 02:22:28 AM UTC

No kidding...

Wow, there just isn't much to say after an ad like that.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 03:08:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

I'll admit that I am supporting Hodges. However, at the same time, I was a fan of Teilhet's. I just think of Teilhet as more of the legislative type, though I do disagree with him frequently, it's great to see young legislators in our party climbing the legislative ladder.

Now? Well, if Hodges loses the Primary, I might vote for a GOP candidate for the first time statewide (Wood), or I'll skip the race entirely (Olens or Smith).

It's not just this ad, it's constant attacks over the past few months.

Hodges has quite a few skeletons in his closet, but this type of stuff is unnecessary.

---

by: RuralDem @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 06:12:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh Yeah

Who would have thought the Democratic Primary for Attorney General would turn out to be the most negative statewide race in Georgia this cycle?

In the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary, Poythress has thrown a few shots at Barnes, but nothing major. On the GOP side there have been ethics accusations, but still, no hard hitting attacks. Even the accusations against McBerry have not been used by another campaign, except for Handel deciding not to sit on stage with McBerry.

Teilhet vs Hodges shows that our party has yet to understand the Taylor v Cox battle, and how much it hurt us four years ago.

---

by: RuralDem @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 06:19:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's a fair and reasonable and appropriate ad......

It's a real issue relevant to voting decisions, it's fair to air it with the video.  The victim's mom was on board with it, and she has moral authority to say yes, air it.

There is nothing wrong with the ad.

And if I were a Georgia voter, this ad would make me vote for Telhet.  In my case I'd do follow-up research to make sure the ad's claims are accurate, but assuming they are,
this would decide my vote.  I say this as a high-information political junkie who is seldom swayed by 30-second ads.

I think Telhet just won the primary.  It's hard to draw contrast in a primary, usually you have to do it on personal qualities rather than ideology or issues.  Something like this can be decisive.  And good for Telhet for being bold and up front in this way.  And good for the victim's mother for being strong.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 13:50:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed on every point

This is a very vicious attack ad, but it isn't a negative one.  Something like this that can be that hard hitting and not be bullshit is pretty much going to decide it for me.

---

by: Andrew @ Sat Jul 10, 2010 at 15:33:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think this might be Teilhet's knockout blow against Hodges

Hodges has spent a lot of time talking about his experience as a prosecutor* and trying use Teilhet's lack of prosecutorial experience against him.  This ad severely damages Hodges' perceived strength.  How do you fuckup that badly (How do you forget to swear someone in?) and then, apparently, blow off the victim's family?  Hodges has some serious damage control to do and it would have to be better than what I've seen from Hodges supporters around the blogs (e.g. ridiculous screeching about "exploitation.").

*The whole issue of prosecutorial experience is fairly ridiculous considering the Attorney General does not try crimes nor does his or her office.  The AG doesn't even have authority over the Georgia Bureau of Investigation.  Instead, the AG is largely a legal advisor to the state government, meaning a lot that advice is going to be on constitutional and administrative law, not on criminal law.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 16:00:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Any "exploitation" argument is destroyed by the mother being in the ad......

She did the ad, you can tell from watching the ad she badly wanted to do this ad.  And she has exclusive ownership of all moral authority over the decision to produce and air this ad.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 19:38:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Holy

shit. That's especially chilling for me because a former transit cop here in the Bay Area was just convicted of involuntary manslaughter for shooting an unarmed black person on New Years Eve. I believe it was mentioned on Rachel Maddow last night.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 15:45:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alternate Democrats to run besides Manchin

I fully expect Manchin to run, but suppose for whatever reason he decides not to.  What other viable Democrats are there in West Virginia to run in his place?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 03:54:01 AM UTC

Rahall

He is the most obvious choice. He would star with a 1.5 million CoH. Only downside is Republicans would have a good shot at his seat. I like Rahall though!  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 05:12:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Senate Prez/Lt Gov Tomblin perhaps.

He is the longest serving Senate President in WV history and has humble roots.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 05:28:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Manchin "highly likely" to run

From the man himself. Announcement Monday. Hopefully Capito prefers to be governor.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 16:57:08 PM UTC

GA-Gov: Another poll

http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 17:19:59 PM UTC