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SSP Daily Digest: 8/26 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 8:12 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Five Teamster locals, representing union member across the state, endorsed Charlie Crist yesterday. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is out with a new ad, a positive family bio spot that is about as un-partisan as you can get. The Palm Beach Post suggests Rubio is trying to appear "above the fray" and let Crist and Kendrick Meek go at each other. NWOTSOTB.
  • FL-Gov: Mark Blumenthal (with assists from Charles Franklin and Harry Enten) has an interesting look at the final five FL-Gov polls, in an attempt to understand why PPP and Susquehanna came closest. (In passing, Blumenthal also points out that the average error in this batch of FL-Sen polls was twice as big as the FL-Gov average, but because several high-profile pollsters "called" the gube race wrong, those polls are getting more attention than the senate polls.)
  • AZ-03: State Sen. and fifth-place finisher Pamela Gorman, best-known for her ad in which she fires a bunch of guns, says she won't endorse Ben Quayle (at least not yet), on account of the vileness he spewed on TheDirty.com. Second- and third-place finishers Steve Moak and Jim Waring, however, say they will support Mr. Potatoe-son.
  • AZ-08: Those GOPers really can't shut up about how much they want to destroy Social Security, huh? Check out Jesse Kelly, fresh of his teabagger-fueled upset victory:
  • "We have to fulfill our promises that we've made to people who are on it now, because the government has stolen their money their entire lives, while phasing future generations off. You have to get the future generations off or you're going to go broke," he said. "Individual accounts is the key to it."

    Sounds almost exactly like Tom Marino, huh?

  • FL-22: Ron Klein is up with his first ad of the campaign season, a spot attacking GOPer Allen West for failing to pay taxes. I'm glad to see Klein going on the attack, but given how much utterly insane shit has come out of West's mouth, it feels a little limp to be going after him on IRS liens. Maybe that issue polled better, who knows. NWOTSOTB.
  • FL-24: Karen Diebel, one of the crazier GOP candidates in a year just chock-full of `em, has gone AWOL in the wake of her narrow loss to state Rep. Sandy Adams. While third-place finisher Craig Miller has endorsed Adams, Diebel hasn't said a word. With 100% of precincts reporting, she trails by 0.8%. She'd need to get under 0.5% to trigger a recount (unless she can demonstrate fraud), which I suppose is conceivable once absentee ballots are counted. But even if that were to happen, she'd still have to make up a few hundred votes, which seems impossible.
  • ID-01: Heh. Remember when the RNC gave money to the Idaho GOP to hire two staffers to help out the utterly feeble Raul Labrador? Turns out things haven't quite played out that way. One of the two staffers has been re-tasked to work on state races. As for the other guy, who knows?
  • MI-07: Yesterday we mentioned that AFSCME was launching a new ad against Republican Tim Walberg. Well, those guys don't mess around. The size of the buy? A cool $750K.
  • ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy is up with his second negative ad in a week, this one attacking GOP Rick Berg on a somewhat unusual issue. Berg apparently promoted a law early last decade which, according to the ad, would allow banks to sell customers' financial records. The bill was later rejected by voters in a referendum. I call this issue "unusual" because you don't typically see privacy matters make a big impact on the campaign trail. NWOTSOTB.
  • VA-02, VA-05: This is nice to see: Sen. Mark Warner is spending some time this recess campaigning for both Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello. It sounds like he just did a fundraiser for Nye yesterday, and has some events on tap with Perriello this weekend. Speaking of Nye, he's up with his first ad, touting his work in Iraq and how much he enjoys voting against the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Nye's opponent, GOPer Scott Rigell, is also up with an ad, attacking Nye for... supporting the Democratic Party. Do you get it yet, dude? They're going to attack you no matter what, so you might as well sack up and do the right thing. No word on the size of either buy.
  • Unions: The AFL-CIO and SEIU, which split apart several years back, are trying to join forces once more. The two labor organizations say that they plan to spend at least $88 million between them this cycle, and perhaps more.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/26 (Morning Edition)
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    We laughed
    When Republicans refused to show a hint of independence from Bush because we knew it made it easier to defeat them. I know it is frustrating but don't see the difference now Democrats are doing it.

    difference is
    Our policies aren't fucking up the country.  Bush sold us his big ole bag of bullshit and did a great job at marketing things as moronic as invading an innocent country.  It all rightfully came back to bite him in the ass but at least he was doing the leading.  So how are we supposed to know if our policies are indeed unpopular if we don't even try to sell them?

    Ill never forget all the polls showing people vehemently against the public option but in favor of a government run insurance program to compete with private insurance providers.  ::sigh::


    [ Parent ]
    Nye
    recently debated Rigell and Kenny Golden at a local high school. By all accounts, he bombed; Golden was apparently the winner on style, but of course nobody's going to vote for him.

    Kang and Kodos
    As Kang and Kodos taught us in Treehouse of Horrors VII, voting for a third party is a waste of a vote.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Go ahead, throw your vote away
    insert pic of Ross perot punching his hat.

    LOL


    [ Parent ]
    I voted for Kodos
    Too bad videos from that episode are not on Youtube.  Every time we had a third party.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Kodos is still the first and only
    Female president the US has ever had.

    [ Parent ]
    I gather, Kenny Golden is an independent
    Why would nobody vote for him?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Please see Treehouse of Horrors VII
    Any time I hear independent or third party, I cannot help but think of Kang and Kodos.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I don't get that reference
    Never saw that movie(?)

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    The Simpsons annual Halloween special is called Treehouse of Horrors.

    I'm guessing you don't own the DVD's but you should Netflix the DVD of that episode.  It is actually the 3rd skit in the episode at about 6-7 minutes in length.  

    It is beyond hillarious from a Simpsons point of view but also from politics (hence we won't get banned for discussing).  It parodies the 1996 presidential race between Clinton and Dole.

    Oh, Kang and Kodos are aliens on the Simpsons.

    Examples of their election debates:

    Kang (as Clinton): I'm looking forward to an orderly election that will eliminate the need for a violent bloodbath.
    Crowd: (cheers)

    Kodos (as Bob Dole): Abortions for all!
    Crowd: Boo!!!
    Kodos: Abortions for none!
    Crowd: Boo!!!
    Kodos: Abortions for some, free miniature American flags for all
    Crowd: Yea!!!


    [ Parent ]
    Independents don't generally fare well in Virginia
    There are two independents in the state legislature (both of whom were Democrats once upon a time), but most of the time, independents don't rise above 1 or 2% of the vote here, at least when there's both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-GOV, PA-SEN
    Franklin & Marshall has a new poll out on the PA US Senate and Governor's races.  In typical F&M fashion, the undecideds are high in the poll.

    http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/key...

    Corbett 38 - Onorato 27
    Toomey 40 - Sestak 31

    Like most F&M polls over the last few years, I am highly skeptical.  Some of the crosstabs make no sense in the poll.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    Which specific crosstabs didnt you like
    I disliked them all, but I found it odd Onorato was elading Allegheny, but oh well.

    To me the polling seems the same in close races, like 66% of the RV model say they will definitely vote.  Of course we won't see 66% turnout in hardly any election anywhere in the US this cycle, so that's always a fun start.

    Then, with 66% definitely going to vote, undecideds are still this high.  Which shows a passionate, uninformed and undecided voter base.  Those 3 don't usually go together.


    [ Parent ]
    The regional breakdowns seemed funny to me
    In both races there were some really weird numbers.  Specifically Corbett getting 22 percent in Philadelphia already while getting the same percentage in "southeastern" Pennsylvania.  Does anyone reasonably believe that Onorato is performing better than Sestak in whatever they define as southeastern Pennsylvania?

    In terms of their bizarre RV / LV division, I really do not understand it and basically have got in the habit of adding 20 percent to each candidate's figure.  Then their polling is in line with everyone else's at this point.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Why's it odd that Onorato leads Allegheny?
    I think that's his home area. What I found strangest was the bizarrely high number of undecideds for this stage of a campaign. F&M must not press leaners at all.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Corbett also has ties to Pittsburgh
    It just didn't make a whole lot of sense that onorato is winning Allegheny and Southeast PA but Corbett leads by this much overall.

    [ Parent ]
    VA-2
    That ad is the opposite of exciting, while also confounding - who'd really be excited to vote for an anti-Democratic Democrat? I've never understood that strategy.


    Independents
    and those who like independence and mavericks.. It's not a primary, where most of the voters are "party faithful"

    [ Parent ]
    yeah but if you want
    Someone who will vote against Obama, then you should vote for the GOP then.

    [ Parent ]
    No
    I don't want anyone who votes lockstep - for Obama or against him. I may agree with Obama on some issues and disagree on other. I may agree wigh GOP on some issues, but more frequently i disagree with them. In fact - that's the reason i stay Independent - no party fully satisfies me. As i said may times - my worst nightmare would be to see 435 Nancy Pelosi-clones running against 435 John Boehner-clones. It's for such people as me that his video makes perfect sense: a Democrat, but very independent minded)))

    [ Parent ]
    Nye is toast
    There's nothing else on the ballot in Virginia this year to drive turnout.  I bet most progressives in VA-2 have been pulling their hair out over how he has voted on most issues and won't turn out in November.

    Lean R

    It's amazing the difference between Nye and Perriello in their approaches the past 18 months, considering they come from nearly identical districts PVI-wise.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    And BOTH are probably toast
    despite this difference...

    [ Parent ]
    Predictions
    Going through my rankings, I actually have VA-5 as a tossup while VA-2 is lean Republican.  VA-5 is a little bit better considering VA-2 is suffering some large defense spending cuts  and VA-5 has a weaker Republican candidate.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, but it has stronger conservative tradition
    (Dixiecratic in the past, such former congressmen from this area as William Tuck and Dan Daniel were more conservative then majority of Republicans of their time)and much more liberal Democratic candidate..

    [ Parent ]
    Yes and no
    Charlottesville (UVA) hasn't always been a part of VA-05. Pat Robertson's Regent University I think is part of VA-02.

    VA-05's tradition is socially more conservative. VA-02's tradition is more conservative w/r/t defense policies.


    [ Parent ]
    And Periello is opposed to abortion
    and voted for the Stupak Amendment, so that probably gives him some credit with some of the social conservatives.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    VA-2
    I suspect VA-2 is even more difficult to hold considering the defense cuts (justifiable in my opinion) the Administration has made recently that impact the Norfolk area.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    You Mean Closing JFCOM?
    Any idea (say, from the regional press) about how many jobs that would cost in the 2nd district (if Congress goes along with it)?

    [ Parent ]
    5,000 jobs, although not all of them are in VA-02
    some are located in Suffolk, in VA-04.

    [ Parent ]
    Aren't there local races too?


    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    VA Races
    First time poster here. Also I live in VA so I saw this discussion and thought that I could add to it.

    1) There are no local races on the ballot this year just Congressional races.
    2) Nye is toast. He is facing a well financed challenger and he had to rely very heavily on African-American voters who turned out in mass in 2008 to vote for Obama. Being that he has hardly embraced any of Obama's plans and has a strong challenger who has lots of personal wealth he is toast.
    3) Perriello is an underdog right now but has a much better shot of surviving. He was not as reliant on the African-American vote but was more reliant on Charlotesville which is a very liberal town. His message is more likely to resonate there and get those to vote. Outside of C'ville he is in a lot of trouble and will need a solid AA voter turnout. There is a 3rd party tea party challenger on the ballot and if he can get more then 5% of the vote it would obviously be a huge help to Tom. Hurt does not have the cash to compete but will get help from the NRCC that Ringell does not need. Should Tom lose I would be interested to see if he would be interested in running again in 2012 depending upon redistricting. VA is very, very heavily gerrymandered that favors the GOP but it is going to be hard to ignore the explosion of growth in NoVa.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    You must not live in Hampton Roads then
    There are municipal elections in Virginia Beach and Suffolk, a special election for mayor in Portsmouth, and a special election for the city council in Norfolk. Of course, only the VB elections are germane to VA-02.

    [ Parent ]
    I've had Nye as toast since the spring

    Periello's constituents respect him, even when they don't agree with him.  I have him as a tossup.

    [ Parent ]
    Nye said he voted against the bailout
    Wasn't the bailout passed before he was elected? Or was there another bailout during the 111th Congress that he voted against?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Not
    all of the TARP money was released in one go. There was another vote to release the rest of the money to the administration. Which is why you have people like Titus, Nye, Lincoln harping on how they voted against bailing out Wall Street.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: Whitman up 8
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    This marks a 10-point swing from their last poll on it. More intriguing, if you believe their CA-Sen numbers, this means Whitman's outperforming Fiorina by about 15 points.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Now I'm confused
    EMeg has been moneybombing the state for some time now, and seems to have passed the point of no return on her investments with regard to advertising.  Short of a scandal on the part of Jerry Brown, and I've heard of no such thing, what would cause such a dramatic turn in the race?  I don't get it.

    I know Whitman is a stronger bet to win than Fiorina, who IMO will probably go down by low double digits ultimately, but 15 points seems pretty steep.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Saturation
    If Meg wins, it is by pure saturation.  

    How much has she spent so far?  Her campaign spending might be the only thing keeping California's unemployment rate below 15 percent.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    somewhere over $100 million
       with much more coming. Her spending is helping CA broadcasters; the unemployed not so much...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    It's Rasmussen
    Since PPP has been pretty good this cycle despite showing brutal numbers for Dems, I'll believe it when they pick up similar results.  That, or Field Poll/Ipsos does something here again.

    [ Parent ]
    ok
    Whitman's probably up more like 4-6 given Rasmussen's usual Republican tilt, but it makes sense that she's doing 10-15 points better than Fiorina, who is too conservative for the state and has a much sketchier business record.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    And
    Whitman has been on the air nonstop since what, November? Fiorina hasn't since June.  

    [ Parent ]
    Went form tie to 8 points ahead...
    ...in like two weeks?  Typical Rasmussen outlier...

    [ Parent ]
    PA-8
    Finally we got a PA-8 poll.  The Fitzpatrick campaign has released a poll saying he is up 48 to 41 on Patrick Murphy.

    As I am always skeptical of congressional polls, this is one of the few districts I actually think you can do an accurate poll in seeing its one county and slivers of two others.  Additionally seeing its D+2 in terms of PVI, it is easy to compare the statewide candidate numbers here to the statewide totals seeing the state has a similar PVI number.  Corbett and Toomey's numbers match their statewide performance.  

    That said, I am skeptical of polls released by campaigns.  

    http://www.pa2010.com/2010/08/...

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    Iowa Senate
    Democrats have a 32-18 majority in the Iowa Senate and are defending 19 of the 25 seats up for re-election this year. Republicans need a net gain of at least 3-4 seats to give them a shot at retaking the chamber in 2012. Fortunately, it looks like one of the most likely Democratic targets is getting a pass. Not that he should take anything for granted in a year like this!

    RI-Gov
    Chafee got endorsed by the National Education Association of Rhode Island, according to his Facebook page.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Does this make anyone else uncomfortable?
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    That'd be kind of tasteless even if a Republican said it, much less a Democrat who many people thought would follow Parker Griffith.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Not really
    People joke in everyday life that people might die whenevr they are asked about the future.  I do it all the time, and so do most people I know.

    [ Parent ]
    Not offensive at all
    Dark humor is very common.  I always joke about dropping over tomorrow.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, they say that
    about themselves, or their friends...not someone they already don't like.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    It does illustrate the point on how Bright is going to have quite a dillema
    If he is reelected and the vote for speaker comes down to one or two votes.

    His joke was tasteless but this is probably a very difficult question for him to answer.  


    [ Parent ]
    He'll cross that bridge
    if and when he comes to it. I'm not worried.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    No he won't have a dilemma, any pause is ended by two words......
    PARKER GRIFFITH.

    That's all anyone should have to say to him, and he'll vote for Pelosi.

    You just don't score any points with the teabaggers for being anything less than pure.  And having been RECENTLY a Democrat makes you impure.

    It's the new Nazi chic, you gotta be a pureblood wingnut, even a drop of impure blood taints all of you.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Tasteless
    But there is a decent point buried within. If Pelosi agreed to step aside as Speaker for someone less controversial (maybe Steny Hoyer or John Larson?) after this Congress, would that help Democrats in swing districts?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    It would help
    It would help for like 3 seconds .... until they started demonising Steny Hoyer or Chris Van Hollen for "never really getting away from DC" or something (since they're from Maryland and there's nothing else even remotely offensive about it) or attacking John Larsen for his "liberal New England views" or Jim Clyburn for whatever the latest racist euphemism for being black is (hey, if Obama's Hitler, maybe Clyburn can be Goebbels? Karl Rove should poll that question). Granted, Pelosi being from San Francisco isn't helpful, but seriously, I'm sure any half-decent political consultant could come up with an attack line for even the most inoffensive potential Speaker.

    The thing is, if you give in to that kind of thinking, it basically disqualifies the entirety of the biggest delegation of the biggest state (California Crazy Liberal), the most heavily Democratic ones (NY & Mass=East Coast Elite), anyone darker than beige, the LGBTs, etc., etc. You end up with a Blue Dog that most of the caucus hates and whose own constituents turn against him (or her) for being the de facto leader of the liberal agenda. I believe a party should evaluate its Speaker from the POV of how they lead their caucus. Thinking back on the 111th Congress, I don't think we'll remember it as one where it was the House that failed to pass important legislation. The Senate, on the other hand...well, basically, I think it's a good sign when the Speaker has to be basically be like: "I guess we'll just wait to see if the Senate can actually pass anything before we pass it and then it'll sail through the House."

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not offended
    It reminds me of the old story of the Jew who volunteered to teach the Czar's horse to speak in a year, in lieu of being executed. He's getting out of making a choice right now because there's a chance, albeit a small one, that he won't be presented with that choice. I think it's pretty smart, politically, and apparently, his audience laughed.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: New Ad From Reid

    I think he now needs to carpet-bomb the airwaves with positive and bio ads.  This is the icing on the cake to define Angle.  He now needs to try to boost himself.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    This is not a good campaign for positive ads
    People don't like Reid, and are pretty sure they don't like Angle. Reid is going to have a very hard time getting people to change their minds about him with feel-good ads. If he's going to win, he needs to make this election all about Angle and how she simply cannot be sent to represent Nevada in the Senate. Likewise, Angle needs to make the race about Reid and unemployment. The winner will be the candidate who makes the election a referendum on their opponent.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    With Reid's
    money, he needs to do several positive ads. The negative ad thing could backfire. This last ad is very good though.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    No they won't. Ads backfire only under peculiar circumstances NOT when...
    ...they are clearly honest and accurate, and you don't get more honest and accurate than Reid's ads which rely on audio and video of Angle herself just talking.

    No one in Nevada outside the Republican base is questioning that everything Reid is saying is right, and also relevant and important and worthy of airing.

    Reid's problem does, indeed, remain his own unpopularity, but he aired a TON of positive ads from last fall to this spring, and that stuff just didn't move his numbers up much.  They moved up a little, from high 30s to low 40s in polling averages, but not a lot.  He's not going to get them to 50, and doubtful even into the high 40s.

    The negative ads are the right thing to do, right through election day.

    I bet Reid will try another round of positive ads at some point, but he's tried a bunch and nothing is going to move numbers a lot unless he saves babies from a burning building in the next couple months.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I have a friend in Las Vegas
    I think her politics are generally liberal, but she hates Reid and absolutely won't vote for him because NV is #1 in unemployment, she says, and with terrible foreclosures. She resents Reid for trying to take credit for jobs in a state that is hurting. She plans on voting for None or a third party. If enough people do that, it could be a problem for Reid.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    That's a solution for Reid, not a problem. Most of those types of voters...
    ...otherwise would vote Republican.  Maybe not your liberal-leaning friend, but most swing voters aren't that liberal.

    That significant Reid-haters won't vote FOR ANGLE is exactly what Reid wants, and it's part of his own path to victory.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Negative all the way
    I generally do not support going exclusively negative, but this may be the case where it is the best course.  Reid's ratings are in the tank and will not be improved enough via positive ads.  

    The best course of action would be to carpet bomb Angle nonstop.  This race has to be about her and her status as a village idiot.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    WI-08: Julie Lassa up with first ad.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    its actually WI-7
    But yeah seems like a good ad.

    20, male, independent, WI-07.

    [ Parent ]
    Nice ad
    Just what is needed for that district.

    [ Parent ]
    CO-SEN: Who knows if this is the informed ballot test or whatever...
    but at least we get a Bennet internal poll showing him up by 4. (44-40)

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    For your daily dose of lulz
    meet Chris Young, one of the craziest mofos in Rhode Island. He's running for mayor of Providence as a Democrat, I guess because he realizes the political reality of running in Providence. Of course, that's about the only political reality he realizes. For one thing, he's running as a social con in uber-liberal Providence, and well...that's probably the least of his issues. He once got arrested at a health care forum at Brown and got banned from campus. He then claimed this ban made him afraid to even enter the city of Providence. (note: Providence is a LOT bigger than just Brown.) a while back he got booted out of a mayoral debate for bringing in a statue of the Virgin Mary and going on a big tirade about abortion or something.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    Afterwards, he "treated" Rhode Islanders to one of the weirdest interviews ever.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    And then finally on Tuesday night, he proposed to his girlfriend, RI-01 Some Dude Republican candidate Kara Russo...in the middle of the mayoral debate. (Even though they had been reported as engaged for months.)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    And there you have it. I'd love to hear about other SSPers' local crazies. :)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Grayon's new soft-hearted ad


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    Here's a question about Grayson...
    Specifically directed to StephenCLE, although anyone can answer. It seems like the RCCC got its preferred candidate in Daniel Webster, who won by a pretty good margin. Is Grayson in pretty serious trouble right now? Not sure, because the results of that primary got blown away on election night by other news.  

    [ Parent ]
    Nobody
    including StephenCLE would really know because no internal polls or public polls have been released. You can apply different theories to which districts are going to go down and some include FL-08 and some don't.

    What I would do is look to Cook, Rothenberg, and the lot, because they get fed stuff we don't: Everybody has it at Tossup.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    Todd Long the Republican runner-up
    released a poll with him beating Grayson 46-38.  Grayson countered that his polls had him up by an average of 14% on the Republican primary challengers.  He did not release polls though.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Hard to tell
    The republicans got their preferred candidate, which will certainly help their cause.  Polling right now would probably show Grayson down a bit, but he's got a huge warchest with which to pound Webster with ads.  

    My gut feeling is that Grayson is no longer favored, and might even be in a Lean R race now that Webster won the primary.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Webster's main problem
    is that he is an arch conservative theocrat running in a swingy, suburban district.  He was one of the ringleaders of the Terri Schiavo fiasco.  Not sure voters this cycle are going to let those types of issues get in the way of voting out Democrats, but Webster is about as hardcore as it gets on the social conservatism front.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    But
    It is a more conservative than liberal district, and Grayson is waaay to the left.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    it's got to be the most ideologically pure race in the country.  Grayson's unlimited $$$ balances things a little, as does the presence of a Tea Party candidate.  Should be interesting.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    ND-AL ad might be smart.
    North Dakota from everything I hear is a pretty libertarian state and the fact that voters rejected the issue on a statewide ballot could be a sign that they care at least somewhat about privacy issues.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    Eh, whatever, he's crazy
    I think the most offensive part of the post was "Kendrick Meeks." Somewhere in Queens or DC Greg Meeks is crying right now.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Additionally
    What is even more comical is that they think Schumer will be Majority Leader.  They doubt their chances of taking the Senate and still think that Reid is going to lose.  Schumer would be leader if their brigades of moonbats did not support a Village Idiot.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Was just going to mention that
    Evidently they feel that Reid is a goner, yet Ron Johnson, Carly Fiorina, and Dino Rossi aren't winning.  (They'd be right on the last three, btw)

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Takeover more likely than Reid losing...
    I am not completely discounting a Republican takeover of the Senate even though I give the Republicans a 1 in 5 chance of pulling it off.  I give Reid a 5 in 6 chance of surviving against the Village Idiot.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Which one is the village idiot
    I feel like I've seen you use that phrase with Palin and with Angle.

    [ Parent ]
    Except that a takeover won't happen without Reid losing
    So you need to downgrade the odds of a takeover if you think Reid's odds are that good. Because there really isn't a credible way for them to win the Senate majority if Reid wins.

    OK, I suppose they could flip 9 others (ND, AR, IN, DE, PA, CO, WI, WA, CA) plus a Lieberman switch. Or no Lieberman switch and a McMahon win in CT. But both are pretty unlikely.  


    [ Parent ]
    The last thing the GOP wants
    Is for Shcumer to be Senate majority leader.

    While he would certainly provide motivation for the GOP heading into 2012 (New York, Liberal, Democrat, mouthy) the man is far more skilled than Reid.  He also can make bolder stands than Reid personally because he is SO much more secure in his seat than Reid.

    Its not to say that Reid has been tragic.  I just think there's a 50/50 chance Schumer could be spectacular.  If I'm the GOP, I'd take Reid as majority leader for another cycle as a blessing.


    [ Parent ]
    Schumer is a wild card
    Schumer would be more competent than Reid, but he could easily come off as more abrasive.  I like Schumer's style and wish we saw more politicians like that, but in the softy land we live in where people are super offensive, Schumer's style might be a negative.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    That's why I gave him a 50/50 chance LOL


    [ Parent ]
    One thing I don't like about Schumer (politics-wise):
    Until the crash, Schumer was a big friend of Wall Street.  Although this makes sense considering he represents New York, I would rather not have that leading the Senate agenda.  I think that were Reid to lose, Durbin would be better.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    as is hoosierdem


    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

    [ Parent ]
    Glad to see
    Someone speaking for him. He'd be glad someone is reminding everyone of his problems with Meeks. I miss my buddy :(

    [ Parent ]
    It just struck me that
    hoosierdem and I are practically separated at birth.  We are roughly the same age, and we both constructed our SSP handles with the name of a college mascot followed by the word "dem," all one word and lowercase.  Weird.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    oh
    richmond? i didn't realize.

    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

    [ Parent ]
    What college does your username refer to?
    I'm so jealous of you people with actual college mascots. My college's "mascot" is a color. Lame.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    University of Richmond n/t


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    you mean meek


    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

    [ Parent ]
    No
    I said Meeks b/c hoosierdem would be freaking out with people calling him Meeks and not Meek.

    [ Parent ]

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