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SSP Daily Digest 8/25 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT


  • AR-Sen: Quelle surprise: The AFL-CIO, which was a major supporter of Bill Halter, won't endorse Blanche Lincoln in the general.
  • NV-Sen: Your daily dose of Angle Crazy comes courtesy Greg Sargent:
  • MANDERS: We have domestic enemies. We have home-born homegrown enemies in our system. And I for one think we have some of those enemies in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.

    ANGLE: Yes. I think you're right, Bill.

  • PA-Sen: Karl Rove's gang of ne'er-do-wells is out with an ad attacking Joe Sestak. NWOTSOTB.
  • WI-Sen: Weirdo Ron Johnson has a new ad out, trying to sell himself as just a reg'lar guy. NWOTSOTB, but the "ad is airing statewide on cable and broadcast TV starting Tuesday, according to a campaign spokeswoman." Meanwhile, the new right-wing group American Action Network is dropping a $325K ad buy against Russ Feingold. Some background on the group (whose backers include Nixon hatchet man Fred Malek - whataguy!) here.
  • HI-Gov: Wow. Former Rep. (and recent special election loser) Ed Case went somewhat against type and endorsed Neil Abercrombie over Mufi Hannemann in the Dem gubernatorial primary. The "centrist" Case seemingly had more in common with Hannemann, the urbane mayor of Honolulu, than Abercrombie, the septuagenarian progressive. And Case didn't just issue some anodyne statement - he utterly lambasted Hannemann:
  • Case called him "the most dangerous politician in a generation," adding that Hannemann governs "by fear and intimidation."

    "He is the product and clear choice of a political machine that must end. While professing unity, he's practiced the politics of division, exploiting rather than healing differences of race, origin and economic status," Case said.

  • CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is touting an internal poll from Magellan, showing him with a 49-43 lead over Rep. John Salazar. Salazar says his own internals have him leading. One FYI about this (and most other) Magellan polls: It's a one-day sample, much like Rasmussen, and - I would guess - does not include callbacks. Nate Silver previously laid out in great detail how a lack of callbacks can negatively affect poll quality.
  • KS-04: Raj Goyle is up with a positive bio spot touting his "Kansas values." NWOTSOTB, though this district is centered around Wichita, which is a pretty cheap media market.
  • MA-10: Great headline:
  • Jeff Perry 'proud' despite work on bogus degree

    Meanwhile, Dem Rob O'Leary is out with his first TV ad, which interestingly enough calls for an end to the war in Afghanistan. NWOTSOTB, and WARNING - AUTOPLAYING YOUTUBE. Very annoying.

  • MI-07: AFSCME has a new ad out hitting Republican retread Tim Walberg for his votes in Congress, though I think the messaging is a little muddled. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB just yet, but presumably the union will have to file an IE report soon.
  • NJ-12: GOPer Scott Sipprelle claims he's launching his "third positive, issue-based cable television commercial this summer." First off, check out the ad (which attacks "Washington politicians right at the start") and then tell me if you think it's "positive." Secondly, I'm guessing that this ad is much closer to a "video press release" (as Nathan Gonzales calls them) than a real buy, given that this district lies mostly in the #1-most expensive media market in the country (and the rest is in Philly, which ain't exactly cheap), and that Sipprelle acknowledges it's a cable-only buy.
  • NY-14: It seems like a long time ago now, but remember when Carolyn Maloney came oh-so-close to primarying appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand? Well, it's an old memory indeed, seeing as Gillibrand is hosting a breakfast fundraiser in Manhattan for Maloney next week.
  • OH-16: Jim Renacci is up with his first ad of the general election campaign - which I can only assume is targeted at his race against me for NYC Zoning Board. But it's weird that he keeps talking about Ohio, no? Anyhow, a spokesman says the ad "is part of a $250,000 two-week buy" on both broadcast and cable. Do you think it's running on New York 1?
  • OH-17: Jim Traficant missed the deadline to file as a write-in candidate, but his supporters are still hoping for a favorable ruling from SoS Jennifer Brunner on whether Traficant can appear as an independent. If not, they are supposedly threatening to go to court.
  • PA-04: Great, another one of these. Much like Joe Donnelly, Jason Altmire has a new ad up claiming he that he's "not afraid to stand up to the president - and Nancy Pelosi." Lovely. NWOTSOTB.
  • PA-10: It's nice when Republican delusions help us win campaigns. Here's Tom Marino's latest:
  • "My generation and probably the generation that follows me, we are going to have to step up to the plate and say," he said. "We are not going to get Social Security," he said. "But we are going to pay into it to get this debacle squared away. So if I have to sacrifice my Social Security to get it squared away ... because we can't take Social Security away from people that are on it now.
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest 8/25 (Morning Edition)
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    Remember when Altmire thought
    that killing the public option would make it easier for him to vote for HCR?

    His political instincts are. . .variable.  


    I understand you have to do what you have to
    to survive.  But attacking your own leader is too much.

    [ Parent ]
    Should just have a Republican in PA-4
    What does Altmire actually bring to the table for the Democrats other than his vote for Speaker?  He did vote for the stimulus and the unemployment extensions, but I really cannot recall what else he voted for that was important to the party.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    He's not horrible
    He's pretty good on budget and labor matters.  Not a big fan, but he's much better than a Republican in that seat would be.

    [ Parent ]
    You listed 3 strong points inf avor of him
    Andd they aren't to be brushed aside so easily.

    What would a Republican bring that beneftis the Dems?


    [ Parent ]
    Anyone who voted for the recovery act
    is worth defending. I mean, we're supposed to back guys like Minnick just to bruise GOP ego and ignore guys like Altmire who actually vote with us on key issues?

    22, male, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    His political instincts are fine
    He knows his district and will win because of it.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree
    His Democratic base won't like him ditching Obama and Pelosi.  The Republicans don't want him either.  Moderates & independents will probably vote more conservatively this year.  We all want someone we can count on & trust; someone who votes based on principle not because it is best for re-election.  Rothfus has principles and shares them with his constituents.  I think he's a really good candidate and will be a leader.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL, great candidate indeed
    so great he only had $200k on hand at the end of June with $162k in debt.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    He raised
    A lot last qt. though. I think with his strong fundraising, and having run a pretty good campaign so far, this will surpass Carney's district for Republican takeovers in PA. Probably right behind PA-07, PA-11, PA-08, PA-03.  

    [ Parent ]
    He's only raised $500k all cycle
    and $150k of that was self funded. Ok so it's not terrible, but Pittsburgh is not Alaska. I guess Altmire could fall in a huge wave but he's way down on the list of seats I'm worried about. in PA alone I worry more about PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Source of funding
    I think one also has to consider sources of funding.  If one raises 75% from out of state vs.  a candidate who raises 10% from out of state, I think that says a lot, personally.  It wouldn't surprise me that much of Altmire's funding is from Unions & out of state.  Guess we shall see if it makes a difference.

    [ Parent ]
    Lol, what?
    the TV stations charge you the same for ads regardless of where you got your money from. And using donations as an example of support is faulty. To use a counterexample I know off the top of my head, the No on 1 Campaign (Question 1 was to ban gay marriage) last year in Maine raised more money from Mainers than Yes on 1 and Yes on 1 still won.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I must have missed the...
    ...and I approved this message.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Is this the conspiracy part?  Haha.

    [ Parent ]
    You know,
    between this attack on Hannemann and refusing to step aside for Hanabusa (leaving Djou to take the seat), I really have to wonder if Case's problem is simply that he doesn't like local politicians. When you look at the bios of Hanabusa, Hannemann, and even Djou, they're all more experienced in state and local government, while Case has more Federal experience, as well as state and local experience and his big failed statewide run for Governor in 2002, which is probably where his grudge against basically every other local politician in Hawaii comes from.

    Also, he kinda looks like Evan Bayh.  


    What's the other commonality
    between Hanabusa, Hannemann, and Djou?  None of them are Caucasian.  Case is white.  I think that might have just a smidgen to do with it, just a little.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    This kind of conjecture
    is not appropriate for SSP.

    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like he doesn't like machine politicians
    Though the timing is interesting, given http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

    Hannemann took a stinging rebuke from senior U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, who disapproved of targeting the ethnicity of an opponent's wife: "To say that my wife is Japanese and yours is something else, that's not nice."

    It gave former U.S. Rep. Ed Case an opening to endorse Abercrombie while depicting Hannemann as "the most dangerous politician in a generation," who practices "fear-based exclusionary machine politics."



    [ Parent ]
    Go Ed Case!
    I think he's better looking than Evan Bayh, and despite the opinions of most people here, less dickish. Admittedly not knowing that much about him, the only thing he did I would identify as a dick move is being stubborn and staying in the HI-01 race despite local establishment support for Hanabusa. I'd imagine the fact that he and Abercrombie served together as Hawaii's house delegation affects his endorsement.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Although
    I will admit that it's cool how Hannemann's website has other languages.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    PA-10
    Am I cynical by being confident that Carney will hold this seat?  Marino continues to be an awful candidate.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    PA-10
    It's the most Republican seat held by a Democrat in PA.  In this type of year, it will be a tough hold.  If Marino is that bad, certainly Carney can win.  But I wouldn't be confident.

    [ Parent ]
    I keep bringing up
    how McCain asked Carney to switch parties, because I really think it would be great ad material. That's something Carney has that no other Dem has. Anyone know if he's released an ad touting that yet?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Nah Carney will win
    He's a decent fit for the district for a Dem.  Also the McCain thing sapelcovits mentions is a potential winner for him as a moderate.

    The GOP needs to get to him in 2012 or he might become so entrenched he'll hold on forever (a la Tim Holden).  This is the perfect district for a Conserva-Dem.


    [ Parent ]
    Redistricting
    If the Republicans want to get rid of him, they will take Lou Barletta and draw him into PA-10 and then draw Carney into PA-11.  Simple change that would keep both sides happy.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Ah the PA GOP and redistricting
    I'm pretty sure they'll try for a map for a 16-2 majority and the whole thing will end up in the supreme court again.  I just don't think they learned their lesson from last time.

    [ Parent ]
    MA-10
    Perry is handling this the wrong way to say the least.  He should use his experience to discuss academic credentials fraud, an issue that gets little attention, but really impacts businesses.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    Who in the world is a "Jim Traficant supporter"??? Are they any different than...
    ...Lyndon LaRouche supporters?

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Slightly different
    I have met a few.  They very much have the stick it to the man/conspiracy theory mentality of LaRouche, but there is an element of Jack Murtha there as well.  Basically he stood up to the man and brought home bacon while Youngstown was going down the toilet.

    Traficant is good for entertainment value only.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Traficant's long career really shows
    the up and down sides of a populist appeal.  While I think especially earlier in his career there was a genuine concern about his working class constituents, it really slid into demogogry and just being crazy.  Oh yeah, and it didn't help matters that he was a crook.

    [ Parent ]
    Traficant was actually my old roommate's congressman when he was young
    He'd always tell me that Traficant was set up by the IRS, that there are no laws requiring people to pay income taxes, and would almost certainly vote for Traficant if he still lived in Akron.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    What are the odds of a democrat winning in AK
    If  Miller is the nominee?  

    Low. Personally i would put it at 1/50


    [ Parent ]
    Really? You're THAT sure? Even I am pausing before writing it off......
    I'm probably the most pessimistic SSPer you'll find, now that Tekzilla hasn't been posting, and even I am not ready to surrender AK-Sen without seeing even one poll testing McAdams and Miller.  I did, indeed, write this off as safe R simply because I assumed like everyone else that Murkowski would coast.  But I want to see hard evidence before dismissing McAdams against Miller.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    Alaska has elected Democrats in the past.  I doubt it will happen this cycle, but I would not be shocked if it did.  Lets see some polling and how the Murkowski people behave themselves after the votes are all counted.  If Murkowski supports Miller, it is less likely to be competitive.  If Murkowski and her ilk really just go nuts it would be interesting.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Haha
    Palin's ended another Murkowski's career! More proof its almost impossible to poll Alaska since polls in 2008 showed Begich with a outside the MoE lead and Don Young DOA.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    The D would have a chance
    if polls show him going into election day with a 5-10 point lead.

    Short of that, it appears that the Palin machine still has a strong effect in Alaska.


    [ Parent ]
    machine?
    I don't think Palin built any kind of a machine, given that she's lazy and disorganized and was only governor for 2 years and change. The state Republican establishment of the Murkowskis, Young, and the late Stevens is much more of a machine, but how much would Miller benefit from that?  

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Horde
    Palin and her followers are more of a horde.  Machines are typically more organized and coherent, two traits missing in Wasilla's Village Idiot.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    same result
    By whatever means, it is still effective GOTV that renders standard "likely voter" models obsolete.

    [ Parent ]
    This "machine" couldn't even get 50% for a sitting Governor in a primary!
    They have about 50% of the Republicans, which of course can't win any election without the cooperation of about half of the Murkowski-type Republicans.

    [ Parent ]
    Palin didn't endorse in that race, n/t


    [ Parent ]
    As strange as it sounds, I think your pessimism is a good sign
    sorta like being a contrarian in the stock market -- to me, it's a sign that serious Ds are taking 2010 seriously.

    Myself, I still think '10 will be a reverse '02.

    If we do lose the House, I think the difference will be some overconfident incumbents who mail in their campaign efforts in D+5 -- D+10 districts. I get the impression that was a characteristic of some D losses in '72 (yeah, I know, that was a Presidential year, but I think that was also characteristic of some of the losses due to the Nixon sweep.)


    [ Parent ]
    I think you mean reverse '82, not reverse, '02, right? If it's reverse '02, then...
    ...we actually gain seats.  And I know you're not saying that!

    If it proves reverse '82, I'll be ecstatic.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    D'oh! you're right of course, n/t


    [ Parent ]
    I'd be more optimistic myself if our guy was fundraising worth a damn
    He raised $9K as of yesterday. I grant that Alaska is insanely cheap, but still.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Uh...Mark Begich
    Would probably dispute that. He won against a beloved (if ethically-challenged) Alaska icon, even with Palin on the national ticket when she was still popular in Alaska. Alaska is just too weird to be Utah levels of conservative.

    Btw, Sitka (pop. ~9000) is almost twice the size Wasilla was when Palin was mayor. And if Miller is as crazy as Angle (which is certainly possible) then I'd say our guy has quite a decent shot winning.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Palin handled the Stevens/Begich race completely wrong
    Everyone knew McCain was going to lose by time Stevens was convicted.  Palin should have basically said she would appoint herself to take over for Stevens after his conviction or someone else.  She did not aggressively push that though.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Alaska is very interesting politically
    The State Senate is led by a Republican-Democratic coalition, which is something that is unheard of in other states. Alaska is unique.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Alaska was originally considered a Democratic state
    It is interesting that when Alaska entered the union it was widely thought that the Democrats would be the dominant party.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    And
    Hawaii was supposed to be heavily Republican when it entered the Union. Weird huh?

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Really weird
    It is very interesting how the development of the oil industry really shifted Alaska politically.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Alaska is actually trending our way.
    Admittedly, slowly and starting from a long way away.  Like Jeff Foxworthy says, "It takes a long time to get to England in a row boat."

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    not sure about this
    if by "we" you mean Democrats. Areas that depend on oil and coal have shifted right as the global-warming issue has become more prominent. I suspect that this (not cultural issues) is the main reason that formerly purple Kentucky and blue West Virginia are now deep-red states.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Look at the Presidential numbers
    2008: 59.42% to 37.89%
    2004: 61.07% to 35.52%
    2000: 58.62% to 27.67% to 10.07% (Nader)
    1996: 50.80% to 33.27% to 10.90% (Perot) to 3.14% (Nader)
    1992: 39.46% to 30.29% to 28.43% (Perot)

    It's complicated and messy, but there is a small trend in there.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    [ Parent ]
    does AK have sore loser law?
    or could Murkowski try to pull a Lieberman here?

    [ Parent ]
    The filing deadline for independents was June 1st
    Murkowski would be out of luck if she loses the primary.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't have any problem with Democratic candidates explicitly separating from Pelosi and Obama......
    Just win baby.

    I'm as strong an Obama supporter as there is, I've never wavered, and I have 5 (yes, 5!) Obama stickers prominently all over the back end of my car.

    And you know what?  I bet Obama is enough the politician to know that an Altmire victory or a Donnelly victory is an Obama victory, no matter what they say on TV to get there.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Agree
    Sometimes the best thing you can do in politics for your boss is throw your boss under the bus.  Obama and his team should understand that.  Some of the Republicans who held on in 2006 who could have easily fallen threw Bush under the bus with ease.  Obama should take the tire treads for the team.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Yup
    And god-willing there will be no hard feelins.  If Dems hold on in 2010 the 2012 cycle should present the option of attaching to Obama or running from him just like 2010.  I just hope there is no revenge.


    [ Parent ]
    According to the Alaska DoE site...
    ... 97.9% of precincts are reporting, and Miller's still sitting on a 1,960 vote lead. How many absentees are currently outstanding? If there's a protracted recount it could be a nice opportunity for McAdams to marshal some resources together to mount a real campaign.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large

    As much as 16,000

    The final result will not be known for at least a week, however, with as many as 16,000 absentee ballots waiting to be counted, the Anchorage Daily News reports. The first ballot count will take place Aug. 31, followed by subsequent counts for late-arriving ballots on Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.

    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...


    [ Parent ]
    MI-Gov: Snyder picks some dude for Lt. Gov.
    http://www.freep.com/article/2...

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    Ideologicaly - natural choice.
    Conservative (but, probably, not far-right) balance to rather moderate Snyder.

    [ Parent ]
    Ak-Sen & AZ-3
    Should we chance marshalling a major effort behind Scott McAdams for AK-Sen?  Or is there a chance of getting Berkowitz (or some other A-list Democrat) on the Alaska ballot as some sort of a replacement candidate?  

    Should we chance a major push behind Jon Hulburd in AZ-3?

    In either case, could it be worth the effort?


    I think AZ-3 is now a tossup
    What a terrible choice by GOP primary voters there.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Between "Son of Potatoe" and Rivera over in FL-25, they really shot themselves in the foot last night.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    I think toss up might be a LITTLE optimistic
    but it's moving in that direction.  The thing is, there's got to be a lot more dirt on Ben Quayle just waiting to be discovered.   The dude just looks like a pervy little nerd who has done god-knows-what with daddy and mommy's money.

    [ Parent ]
    Quayle lucked out with a split field
    Remember over 67% of GOP primary voters didnt voted for Quayle. He won because there were 10 guys running and they all split the vote.

    If there was a runnoff or even a few less guys running (like in a 5 person race) no way he wins.

    What shocked me about Quayle's campaign was the amateurish aspects to it. You would think with all his Dad's connections they could bring in campaign staff who would put out ads that didnt have fake children in it and were less creepy than the kicking ass ad.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    In fact - even 77. He got 23...


    [ Parent ]
    I meant to write 77!
    I make a lot of typos!

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    McAdams ran for the position
    Why would he bow out, now that he might have a chance? And why would anyone want to pressure him to leave in favor of someone who refused to run? Besides, why is anyone assuming this guy couldn't be an effective campaigner?

    I think Hulburd should be pushed, but that district is pretty Republican, and I would still consider it Lean-R and probably no more than a 30% chance for a Democratic takeover.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    AK-Sen: Will the provisional ballots be of any help to Murkowski?
    The prevailing wisdom is that the rural areas sometimes take weeks to come in, and those areas favor pork-bearing incumbents the most. But Ted Stevens led after the initial count in '08 and then lost because of these late returns, and he was as pork-loving as they come. Any reason to think Murkowski will do better than Stevens with the absentees?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    I just think she trails by too much
    Its hard to see how many of the votes could be so decidedly rural since the rural areas have fewer votes.

    If it was aroung 1,000 votes, I'd giove her a shot, but it seems like she has too much ground to make up.


    [ Parent ]
    Larry Sabato tweet this a few minutes ago
    just talked to some solid Alaska sources. They do not think there is any realistic chance Lisa Murkowski can make up the votes she needs.  8 minutes ago  via web  

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    I know I'm in dream land
    But how great would it be to have 2 Democratic senators from Alaska?

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    They can join
    that new Democratic senater from Utah.

    [ Parent ]
    You bite your tongue sir
    When Orrin Hatch retires in 2012, Jim Matheson runs for the open seat, and Mitt Romney is rejected in the Republican presidential primary because of his mormonism (again), you have the perfect concoction with which Senator Matheson could happen.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Tongue in cheek, right?


    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    A Democrat from Utah
    Why are you assuming it is tongue-in-cheek?  Romney really can run on the competence issue -- if Obama messed up badly, he could win the general election, but it isn't clear he could get out of the Republican primary.

    Last time, the Mormons I heard discussing his loss blamed religious discrimination in the American People, but if a credible Utahn can point out that it is really just the national Republican party (or, admittedly, the activist base) -- that does open a very slim path.


    [ Parent ]
    No way does a Democrat win a U.S. Senate election
    in Utah, not until there have been major demographic changes that increase the number of Hispanics and non-Mormons. I don't see the slim path at all.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    If only they could drop McAdams and draft Mike Gravel


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Tell me which of these is more unnerving......
    Joe Miller talking nonstop into a camara saying the most batshit crazy things for 20 minutes?

    Or, a motionless Mike Gravel staring silently into the camara for 20 minutes?

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Hmm
    Can we show a picture of Gravel but dubb in the words of Miller?

    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Loved Gravel's avant garde video.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunately, Mike Gravel no longer lives in AK
       He is now a resident of VA and has been out of Alaska for many years. His videos were OK but the coolest thing about Gravel's presidential candidacy was his questioning of the need for a military budget larger than the rest of the world combined. That took guts!

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    It takes less guts
    if you know you won't win and are campaigning only on principle.

    Besides, it's the Republican Party that's much more stridently militarist, so it might make sense to call Ron Paul more gutsy in making very strong arguments against aggression and the "war on terrorism" rhetoric.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    good points there
       and Ron Paul gets gutsiness points for opposing the insanity about the NYC Islamic community center.  

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    Odd
    It would be as odd as having two Republican senators from Maine.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Nah
    Alaska is way more Republican than Maine is Democratic. One of their two congresspeople is a blue dog.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    OR-Gov: possible underhanded attack on Kitzhaber?
    http://news.opb.org/article/11...

    Three managers at the Oregon Department of Energy are under criminal investigation, after an audit turned up possible irregularities that could involve federal stimulus money. Now, the girlfriend of Oregon gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber is denying reports that her consulting firm is linked to the inquiry.


    Interesting...
    I would not be shocked to see some stimulus related scandals in the future, but this one strikes me as a bit odd and too detached for the average voter to understand.  Maybe I am a tad cynical in both regards.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    FL-Sen, Sink Beating scott 41034
    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    I really hope Sink wins, that would be epic.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    Good
    I would vote for Sink over Scott.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I suck, its like 8am over here in CA
    It's supposed to say 41-34

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    I preferred 410-34, but I'm an optimist <n/t>


    [ Parent ]
    As long as Rubio wins, I'm fine with Sink
    She seems pretty inoffensive, and the Fla. Legislature is Republican enough that we will at least see an incumbent-protection map. If Grayson and Kosmas win, this probably means a new swing 26th in Central Florida, if they lose it likely means protection for Webster and Adams and a safe D 26th in Orlando.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Lean D
    This is Sink's race to lose now.  I know Scott could absolutely go crazy with bombarding the state with ads, but I think he's damaged goods at this point.  Some well-placed ads by Sink highlighting his more slimy parts, preferably down the stretch of the campaign, and this one is over.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    NJ-12
    I've seeing a lot of Sipprelle commercials this week. So his ads are definitely getting out there. Fortunately his ads boring and unimpressive.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    He's been on the air for a while now


    [ Parent ]
    Meek needs to face the music....
    (sorry but this is the reality). If he thinks he has a prayer of a chance in becoming Senator this Nov. After celebrating his pyrrhic victory over that slimeball Greene, he needs to stop being stupid and and do what is right.  

    (1) The FL-GOP and right-leaning Indies are pumped going into Nov and with the exception of Sink v. Scott, the Dems are pretty much underdogs everwhere else.

    (2) He has no money and will have no money. And you can NEVER win a general election in a state like FL without spending at least $15 mil.

    (3) Meek has as much baggage as Rubio (probably more) with his shady campaign finance dealings and South FL connections. By the time that is sufficiently exposed statewide, he'll be an afterthought.

    (4)Unless he dedicates all his efforts to attacking Rubio, Meek might as well come out as an agent of the FL GOP.

    (5) Crist is pulling about 30% of the GOP vote and 60% of the Dem vote and about 40% of FL indies. While Crist's support is not too soft it is by no means solid. Rubio has no reason to go further right (ergo he is talking less teabagging shit) and once Meek starts attacking Crist, Rubio will consolidate his right flank and pick off the Indies.

    (6) Arguments about pissed off AA voters is BS! Meek has no bargaining power with them b/c they are practical voters and will vote for Crist in a hearbeat if Obama makes the case for Crist.

    Meek should swallow his pride and do the right thing rather than be a spoiler. He can have another chance when Nelson retires. He should either go after Rubio 100% or step aside for the sake of his party.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, barring a disastorous scandal on Rubio, allowing him to become US-Senator will be the biggest mistake FL and national Democrats will make in a generation.

    Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
    All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


    I don't think it matters..
    if Meek is on the ballot at all, Rubio wins. He is the heir apparent to Ronald Reagan.  Look for him on a national ticket in 2012 or 2016 if he wins, which I would expect to happen.  

    [ Parent ]
    If Meek does what I hope
    Rubio won't win. The Reagan analogy is WAY overrated everytime it is used (I know cos I remember the Reagan years pretty well). In any event, no race is guaranteed and my money is on Crist if Meek is out the way. Crist has the money and the numbers if Meek gets out of the way.  

    Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
    All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


    [ Parent ]
    Beg to differ...
    Rubio is young, articulate, handsome, a minority and from a swing state. Plus he has the full backing of Jeb Bush and is a giant RINO killer, assuming he wins.

    Compare him and his style/persona to Angle, Buck, Paul or the other potential new 'stars' elected from the GOP this year. Hands down, he wins that comparison. He is a netroots favorite    

    While a lot can happen in two months and no race is guaranteed, if he wins, he will be the hottest new commodity in the GOP.  It's not hard to see how he fills the void RR left in the conservative movement under that scenario.  


    [ Parent ]
    Er..we are saying the same thing
    by and large. He was spouting a lot of teabagging shit but I never compared him to Angle or Paul.

    Anyway, my point was that with the numbers, Crist has a better chance putting together a winning coalition with Meek out than in. You can't dispute that.

    Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
    All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


    [ Parent ]
    Democratic Floridians selected Meek.
    I do not know Shinigami.  

    Perhaps if I spent more time reading Swing State Project comments I would.

    Mr. Meek, however, is known to me as a long time Democratic elected official.  

    He was selected by Democratic voters in Florida to be the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate.

    Mr. Crist is known to me as a long time Republican, and as a Republican governor.  

    A Republican who Republican voters did not want the Republican nominee for the United States Senate.

    However Crist may not be a cutting-edge, tea-partying social conservative.  

    But there can be little doubt that he is an old-line, whatever-business-wants Republican.  

    Old-line, whatever-business-wants Republicans are bad enough.  

    Much like old-line, whatever-business-wants Democrats.

    Perhaps Mr. Crist will yet conclude that it would be in his best interest for him caucus with the Senate Democrats in 2011, at least for a while.  

    Perhaps not.

    Whose plans does the candidate selected by Democratic voters "spoil?"  

    I tend to agree that Meek should either go after Rubio 100% or step aside for the sake of his party.

    But I hope (and believe) that Meek knows better than to take anybody's assurance that if he continues to labor in the vineyards of Democratic politics he can look for another chance when Nelson retires.

    For those now urging Meed to "do what's right" will find another half-baked, too-clever-by-half scheme to relieve Democratic Floridians of their voice in the matter when Nelson retires.

    After all, Meek will still be black.


    [ Parent ]
    K...but...
    SC Dems nomianted Al Greene and CO Reps nominated Dan Maes.

    Any objective person knows there is no realistic way for Meek to win this race. Period! His vote and that of Crist combined exceeds Rubio's.

    #1: The many Reps supporting Crist do not like Rubio, but will not vote for Meek.

    #2: The many Dems supporting Crist are voting strategically because they already looked at Meek and decided he can't win.

    #3: The indies (i.e. true indies) see Crist as rejecting both party labels and identify with him, even if he is more likely to caucus with the Dems.

    If any of the above were not true, Crist would not have left the GOP and Meek would not be trailing.  

    Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
    All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


    [ Parent ]
    Disagree!!!!
    I think Meek's win changes Crist's strategy. If Greene won I think Crist would have tacted left and run as the defacto Dem.

    Since Meek is a much stronger candidate with a solid Dem base Crist cant do this.

    Crist has to now run as a center-right candidate. I think that's why Crist still hasnt said who he will caucus with. He was waiting out the Dem primary.

    This opens a space for Meek. If Rubio gets the Right vote and Crist gets the Center there is room on the Left for Meek to win.

    Its a long shot but in a three way race he's got a chance. I'd say he be crazy to drop out.

    If I was Meek I would attack Crist as being a Republican and constantly mention all of Crist's Republican positions (some of which he still kept). This would drive some Dems back to him and some GOP votes from Rubio to Crist.

    He should ignore Rubio as much as possible if he wants to win and attack Crist for the RPOF scandals and his GOP postions at every chance he gets.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    What happens when Crist attacks Meek?
    as I think he'll have to do in an effort to keep Meek's numbers down.

    [ Parent ]
    Meek should hit him back as a right winger
    and make the election about siding with Obama and the Senate Dems.

    Meek doesnt need a plurality. He can win with under 40% of the vote as long as Crist and Rubio split the 2/3 of electorate that's GOP and Indy.

    He's got a shot but he needs to attack Crist and paint the race as establishment Republican vs Tea Party Republican vs Democrat.

    If I was him I would run a Tweedle Dee Tweedle Dum ad showing all the issues Crist and Rubio agree on.
     

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    [ Parent ]
    Reuters/Ispos CO-SEN, CO-GOV
    Buck 49% (R)
    Bennet 40% (D)

    Hickenlooper 41% (D)
    Maes 33% (R)
    Tancredo 16% (C)

    Hickenlooper 45% (D)
    Maes 45% (R)

    http://www.reuters.com/article...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Bad news on Senate race
    At least it's single digits, but Bennet needs to expose Buck's extremism starting now.

    [ Parent ]
    Yuck
    Let's hope Tancredo hangs in there. I can't believe that Hick would be tied with a crackpot like Maes. It's gonna be an ugly November.

    [ Parent ]
    This poll is shit, pure and simple!
    pure and simple. If Maes had an even remote chance of winning, the RGA would not have abandoned him. The guy is a nut of the highest order and he won't be governor under any circumstances.  

    Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
    All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


    [ Parent ]
    no favorables
    The poll didn't show favorable ratings for the candidates, but I would guess that Maes is doing fairly well because he isn't well known yet, and most voters see him as "generic R". We'll see what happens once Hickenlooper starts attacking him.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Watch
    Hickenlooper's first ad. He pledges towards the end he won't run negative ads. Though I expect the 527's to jump in if things get too dicey.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Kind of hard to figure out this poll
    Since independents are apparently pushed to one party or another, its hard to see if this is skewed.  

    Looks like the poll has a Republican tilt, 48-40, but again since htey apparently pushed Indies who knows how accurate this is.  I actually find there divisions of political party confusing to follow.

    There are some silly findings.  68% or registered voters will definietly vote in this election, which seems very high.

    Godo findings for Bennet/Hick: 54% of Indies are undecided in the Senate race while only 35% undecided in the Gov race.

    The immigration questiosn seem mutually exclusive yet sometimes 49% want to give illiegals a chance to become citizens, but when the mention of paying a fine and paying taxes comes in, the % rises to 64%.  LOL

    http://www.ipsos-na.com/downlo...


    [ Parent ]
    If true...
    If these numbers are correct, this is a bad sign for the Democrats to say the least.  If Hickenlooper cannot get more than 45% against super dude Maes, things are really terrible.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    That one-on-one Hickenlooper-Maes tie makes me discredit the poll......
    I don't buy that senior people in a political party are ever unduly pessimistic about their own party's chances in a high-profile office in a year favorable to their own party.

    In other words, Republicans wouldn't write off CO-Gov if those polling numbers were accurate--even the 3-way numbers are competitive enough to make them stay in it and fight, even in a neutral year but especially an anti-Dem wave year.  And yet they are, in fact, writing it off.  So that poll is just wrong.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    538's Senate rankings
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    This is random but
    does anyone else think CA-23 and FL-24 kind of look alike? they both have that little arm sticking out to the bottom left.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/



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