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Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, and Vermont Primary Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 9:05 PM EDT


11:00pm: Time for some fresh thread.
10:55pm: Hahahhahahahahahha! The AP calls FL-Gov for none other than Rick Scott! Fuckin' amazing!
10:53pm: Over in FL-24, is Sandy Adams this cycle's Alice Kryzan? Diebel attacked Miller on immigration, Miller attacked Diebel on crazy, and Adams is walking through the hole in the middle. Still, it's a very close race and not yet called.
10:49pm: Speaking of Boyd, the AP just called the race for him. What a crazy race.
10:47pm: The hamsters have been spinning in their wheels furiously to keep the ol' mainframe running, which is still calling for about a 2-point Scott win and a 3-point Boyd escape.
10:42pm: We have a winner in FL-17! The AP has called the race for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, with 35% of the vote. Self-funder Rudy Moise was a distant second with 16%. He spent over a million bucks to get fewer than 6,000 votes (so far).
10:37pm: Rick Scott has now nudged up to 47%. If he hangs on, Tom Jensen and the gang over at PPP are going to look like geniuses.
10:34pm: Annette Taddeo, who ran a spirited campaign last cycle in FL-18, is running again this year for County Commissioner in Dade Co. Unfortunately, things don't look so hot for her right now - she is in third place (look for District 8) in a race where the top two candidates advance.
10:28pm: We're up to 67% in VT-Gov, Racine leads Markowitz by 8 votes. Shumlin trails by 50 or so votes. Basically, every update of this race has given us a new leader.
10:20pm: We're now up to 81% reporting in Florida, and Rick Scott leads by 46-43. Note the disparity between the AP and Miami-Dade's website in terms of precincts reporting: AP says 380, Miami-Dade says 526, but both show the same raw vote total. I've learned that when in doubt, the AP is usually wrong!
10:13pm: A perfect tie! Racine and Shumlin are at 9,440 votes each. Markowitz is about 200 votes behind.
10:07pm: Over in Vermont, Peter Shumlin had the lead briefly, but now it's Doug Racine over Markowitz by 34 votes. (52% reporting)
10:06pm: The AP has called FL-25's GOP primary for David Rivera. He's up 64, to Crespo's 25 and Cancio's 10. Democratic oppo researchers are doing happy dances.
10:05pm: Eagle-eyed watchers may have noticed that the Miami-Dade elections office is about 300 precincts further along than the AP (526, instead of 213). McCollum needs to make up about 40K votes statewide, and the further-along Miami votes only help him make up about 5,000, though. Anyway, according to the AP, 72% are reporting, and it's still 47-43 in favor of Scott.
9:59pm: It's still a small Sandy Adams lead on the GOP side in the 24th. She leads Karen Diebel 30-29, with Craig Miller at 27, with 93% reporting. On the Dem side, let's Partyka like it's 2010. Suzanne Kosmas beat even-more-conservaDem Paul Partyka 78-22.
9:57pm: Did we mention there were primaries in the open seat FL-12? On the Dem side, Lori Edwards won 75-25 over Doug Tudor, the 2008 candidate and the preferred candidate of a few vocal souls in the netroots. On the GOP side, Dennis Ross's performance against some teabagging dude J. Lindsey wasn't overwhelming: 69-31.
9:55pm: Allen Boyd is starting to put a little more distance between him and Al Lawson, if 52-48 can be considered distant. That's with 86% reporting, and with mostly rural white counties left (Boyd's stronghold) to report.
9:51pm: Things are starting to look kind of locked in, in the Florida GOP gubernatorial race. With 65% reporting, it's still 47 for Lex Luthor Bizarro World Peter Garrett Rick Scott, 43 for Bill McCollum. There's still 2/3ds of Miami-Dade County left, though, where McCollum is doing well (up 63-30), presumably because of his support in the Cuban community over his less-insane immigration stance.
9:47pm: In the wildly swinging Vermont gubernatorial race (if you go by percentages instead of raw votes), Deb Markowitz has pulled back into the lead by about 65 votes over Doug Racine. It's 26-26 with Shumlin at 24 and Dunne at 19.
9:44pm: One more call to mention: the AP called OK-05 for outsiderish social con Jim Lankford, who beats Club for Growth stooge Kevin Calvey 65-35.
9:41pm: The AP called the Dem field in FL-25 for Joe Garcia, who beats Luis Meurice 77-23. Still no call on the GOP side, but David Rivera's at 64.
9:39pm: No call yet in the GOP field in FL-24, but it has one thing in common with FL-08: the NRCC's prize pick finished embarrassingly back. In the 24th, Craig Miller is in 3rd at 27 (with Sandy Adams at 31 and Karen Diebel at 30). And in the 8th (which is called), Bruce O'Donoghue finished 5th, at _7_, behind Daniel Webster at 40, Todd Long at 23, Kurt Kelly at 14, and heretofore unknown P. Sullivan at 11.
9:37pm: Somewhere in there, the Republican primary in FL-05 got called for the Nuge. That's Richard Nugent, not Ted, the Hernando Co. Sheriff who beats random teabagger Jason Sager 62-38 for the right to succeed Ginny Brown-Waite. He'll face Dem Jim Piccillo in the general.
9:35pm: With 57% now reporting statewide in Florida, we're still holding at a 47-43 lead for Rick Scott. That's with 10 for Mike McAllister, a pretty good showing for Some Dude, although he pretty much a priori has to be the least of three evils.
9:32pm: The mainframe at SSP Labs has finally laid its egg (extrapolating each county's results so far), and it predicts that Allen Boyd will continue to hold the lead and survive, by a not-so-convincing 52-48 margin. (He's currently up 51-49 over Al Lawson, says the AP.) By the way, who ever wins will face Steve Southerland; the AP has called the GOP field in the 2nd for him, with 48% out of a field of five.
9:30pm: In what's likely to not be the last lead change of the night, now Doug Racine leads the Dem pack in Vermont, with not quite 1/3 reporting. Racine's at 26, with Markowitz at 25 and Shumlin at 24. (Racine's edge is just 22 votes, so this'll be a game of inches all night.)
9:15pm: And in FL-Gov, Rick Scott leads by 3.6% with 55% of the vote in. The other hot race to watch is FL-24, where conservative state Rep. Sandy Adams leads Karen "Snakes in a Pool" Diebel by 1% with 90% reporting.
9:14pm: We're at 73% reporting in FL-02, and Allen Boyd's lead has dipped down to 51-49. The ticker tape is spewing out of the SSP Labs mainframe fast and furiously -- we'll let you know what our findings tell us in a few minutes.


RESULTS:

James L. :: Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, and Vermont Primary Results Thread
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Interesting #s out of Miami-Dade...
Maurice Ferre, the fmr. Miami mayor, is actually beating Jeff Greene there.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Are the SSP
Labs running tonight?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Shumlin was moving up thanks to Brattleboro
With 2 of the 3 precincts reporting in the Vermont Governor's race, Shumlin's pulled 724 of 1229 votes cast (59%); this is up from 50% or 51% when just one of those precincts was reporting. The third precinct could easily put her in the lead.

The odd thing is that all 3 precincts have reported in the Windham County State Senate race, where former ambassador Peter Galbraith is running for one of two state senate seats. He's currently 5 votes away from incumbent Democratic senator Jeannette White with 38% each; the third Dem is at 24%. In fact, the third precinct reported a good 15 minutes ago. What's up with that?


Sad
to think Galbraith won't win that race.

Nothing from Burlington, Essex or my home of South Burlington yet.


[ Parent ]
It's likely that he *will* win at this point
Vermont elects a varying number of state senators per county, and Windham County gets two. As Galbraith's currently in the lead by 14 votes, with the third-place candidate, Toby Young, 465 votes behind Galbraith and 451 behind White, he's doing quite well, given that the most populous town by far has reported in.

The sole Republican on the ballot would have to beat one of the two Democrats in November; I frankly don't see it happening.


[ Parent ]
I would
not imagine a repug would win in Windham County.  Thank you for reminding me about the multiple Senate Seats...

[ Parent ]
Boyd gonna win
Lawson's biggest county reported all at once, he won with 62% and it only got him to 49% overall.  

Eyeballing it
it looks decent for Allen Boyd.  Depends on what kinds of precincts are left in Leon County.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Things are looking good for Scott no?
It seems like Scott despite a bit of  late poll movement, appears to be hanging on, doing a serious solid for PPP.  

Don't be too sure about that
Miami-Dade is still only at 1%, and if McCollum is winning the whole county by the same margin when the rest comes in, that could very easily give him a lead.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Early Votes
1% of the vote in is misleading. All the early votes are counted and that is estimated at about 40% of the total vote.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
What is out
is Palm Beach, Broward and Dade.  I think Scott is in trouble, though the numbers do include early votes from there already.

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
  Scott has this.  He's actually winning Broward, losing Palm Beach by a little, and Miami-Dade isn't going to be enough on its own.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Nothing is over
until SSP Labs says it's over.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Nothing is over
until SSP Labs says it's over.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Who should we want
In VT gov?  

Markowitz has polled the best by far
so "we" want her, while "you" want Shumlin, who polls the worst.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Very scary
turnout numbers in Florida.

In 2006: 984K versus 856.
In 2010: 1.14 Million versus 656K.

Most of Broward and Dade are still out, but those are blowout numbers.


Not really surprsing.
The only competitive well known race the Democrats had was between Meek and Greene and most of the Democrats I know are voting for Crist so there is no reason to even bother.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
anyone ever done a regression on link between
primary turn-out and GE results?

[ Parent ]
If it makes you feel any better
Dem turnout is about 2-1 over Republican turnout in Vermont. Of course, there's not much going on for the Republicans.

[ Parent ]
Ahh
why did I live my home state?

Oh, the winter....


[ Parent ]
WA-02
Votes are still trickling in from last weeks Washington Sates top 2 primary and in WA-02 John Koster (R) has pulled ahead of Rick Larson (D Inc) by 161 votes. Both will go on to the General but it is not good when an Incumbent finishes in 2nd place (Total Dem vote is still ahead of total Rep by about 52-48)

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


As someone pointed out to me
Yesterday, Reichert finished second in 2008. However, this is totally unexpected and should be a big boost for Koster's campaign. I wouldn't be surprised to see Koster upgraded in Young Gun's soon.  

[ Parent ]
Patricia Sullivan
She was the choice of the average tea party member around America. I will also point out Bruce was supported by 3rd place CA R Sen primary finisher Chuck DeVore, who is trying to become a voice for national conservative movement. Webster was the NRCC's original top recruit, but he decided not to run then ran. So, the NRCC can say their guy won.  

Another political family's scion bites the dust
Mark Snelling, son of the late governor, is losing the Republican primary for Lt. Governor by 59-41.

terrible year to run
not sure what he was thinking, aside from "me sun of guvnor, i can has sacond in cummand?"

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I wonder
if that means the GOP in Vermont is moving right.  The big Dick was hardly a conservative....

[ Parent ]
VT-GOV
it's looking like this will come down to chittenden county, or more to the point, burlington and south burlington.  if they go for racine, his home county, I predict he'll win, contradicting my diary about him (oops).  If they split, or go for the youthful dunne/scrapper shumlin, god only knows.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Rutland is still out
The four biggest towns are Burlington, Rutland (usually relatively more conservative) Essex and South Burlington.  

Racine once told me that his last name help in the French Canadian areas around St Albans for what its worth.


[ Parent ]
VT-Sen
Leahy has cruised. He'll doubtless crush his GOP opponent in November.

Meanwhile, Shumlin just took the lead on the strength of that third Brattleboro precinct, which gave her a margin of over 300 votes over any other candidate.

The question is, does she have any other strongholds like that in the state.


[ Parent ]
Shumlin
as in Peter Shumlin? A he?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
yes
peter shumlin, a guy.  here's a link to his ads. http://www.shumlinforgovernor....

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Sorry about that. He. n/t


[ Parent ]
POSSIBLY
burlington. conventional wisdom says that since racine grew up there and it's in his racine's home county it's racine's.  Further he has strong progressive support, which is the first to second wheel of Burlington politics.  Burlington however, can be contradictory and Shumlin could have an upset.  i'd say 20% chance of shumlin doing well there.  50% chance the vote is already up by the time i post this showing me a fool.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I would think
Racine's strength also rest in the suburbs south of Burlington (South Burlington, Shelburne) as well since he is well known there.

[ Parent ]
Hope Scott pulls it off, but Sink will have a great shot vs. McCollum, too......
Scott will be severely disliked outside the GOP base, and by some within the GOP base, and I have to think he's weaker for November.  But McCollum is also damaged and also broke, which helps Sink, too.

I'm still rooting for Scott tonight bigtime.

I'm trying to start being philsophical and looking ahead now, pretty much surrendering the House in my mind, but redistricting matters and Sink pulling out a November win means everything to us in what might be the most badly gerrymandered state against us in U.S. House seats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Yeah, if Scott wins
It will be Rick Scott's GOP base Vs. The World.

Only potential snaffu I see with Scott is that he has Bajillions of dollars at his disposal.  While it hasn't helped Meg Whitman, Florida Voters may act differently towards ad Bombardment...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
well, scott would have already destroyed one evil ex
only two more to go.  that movie rocked.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
not that i support scott in the general
that guy be crazy.  soar, sink, soar.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Rick Scott VS. The World
\

YEAAAAAAAAAAAH

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Im gonna
Have nightmares from that pic.

[ Parent ]
So tell me
You once said you were more oped-minded about Gubernatorial elections. If you lived in Florida would you vote for a moderate Democrat like Alex Sink over a scandal-plagued businessman like Rick Scott, or would you choose to throw your vote away on Bud Chiles?

[ Parent ]
What if he Democratic nominee
had been Charlie Melancon :P  

[ Parent ]
words cannot describe
the awesomitude.  

SSP commenter Daman09 levels up.  attains poster making power of hilarity.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
+5 Boldness


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
That's true ....
but we won't be picking up either the Florida Senate or Florida House. I fact, Republicans control more than 3/5 of the House, and around 2/3 in the Senate. So I think the best we do here is a non-gerrymander. Something needs to be done about Corrine Brown's district. That's for sure.

I don't know why we should surrender the House this early. At most Republicans have a 10 seat advantage, and that can easily be narrowed down.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
I realize for our Florida Democratic brothers and sisters the state legislature is huge, BUT...
...for those of us NOT in Florida, it's U.S. House redistricting that really matters.  I'm hopeful there Sink can make it close to 50-50 for us.

On the state leg, a better redistricting will make it closer to even, even if Dems remain a minority.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
My point
was Republicans only need 1 or maybe two Democrats to go along with a Republican gerrymander and then they have more than 2/3 of the legislature.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
And that's for
congressional or state legislative.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Thanks, I didn't realize your point. But man I would hope the Dem caucus would stick together and...
...not shoot themselves in the foot!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
A commenter
down below says that the governor has no veto power over redistricting. :(

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
So will...
Cuban Republicans in Florida vote for Rick Scott in the general election?

[ Parent ]
The Governor has no veto power over redistricting in Florida.
I think North Carolina is the only other state like that.

[ Parent ]
Oh great, so this discussion is pointless??? Oh well. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It
would still be nice to have a dem Governor of Florida. Like Andrew said Sink would be on shortlist in 2016 despite her age.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Miami-Dade County Website
  Has McCollum netting 23,000 votes with about 53% of precincts in.  

24, Male, GA-05

More than that.
   More like 62% reporting.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Almost
time for Arizona!

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Don't get excited, I read earlier today they won't release anything until ALL precincts have REPORTED. That means it could be just like...
...HI-01 special, when the final result was the only release, the moment the polls closed.  But it will be in the middle of the night.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
According to our SOS..
they will start releasing results at 8pm our time (in about 15 minutes).

http://www.azsos.gov/releases/...

25, M, Indep(former GOP), AZ-03


[ Parent ]
Crossing fingers for Hayworth
PLEASE OH PLEASE!!!!

LET IT BE!!!!

THAT DUDE NAMED J.D.!!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
I voted for JD...
and for Ben Quayle.  I don't know what I was thinking.

25, M, Indep(former GOP), AZ-03

[ Parent ]
shumlin retakes lead
probably for the last time.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Adams hanging on in FL-24
She's up to a 650 vote lead now from 575. I always liked her and never understood why the NRCC left her for dead, she doesn't have Miller's money but has a better telegenic presence. I think Kosmas is probably rooting for Diebel to hang on--she's a slightly better fundraiser but has more skeletons/snakes in the closet.

Adams and Diebel both live in Winter Park; does anyone know what part of the district is still out?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


Adams
Was my 2nd choice. Miller was good cause his money, but I became much less enthusiastic about him with that mailer.  

[ Parent ]
A bit of each county
2 precincts in Brevard, 3 in Orange, 1 in Seminole, and 7 in Volusia. Adams is ahead in Orange and Seminole, Diebel in Brevard, and Miller in Volusia (with Diebel in second there).

[ Parent ]
I think she has too little money
and is too conservative, particularly on social issues, to win this district. Florida might be a bright spot for Democrats in this cycle, with both Grayson and Kosmas winning reelection.

[ Parent ]
She's raised almost $400K
Not world-beating with Kosmas having raised $1.8M, but keep in mind that the NRCC has been steering money away from her, first to Diebel then to Miller (she's not even a Young Gun). More concerning is the $115K on hand after the primary. Adams' fundraising in the next couple of weeks is going to tell us a lot about where this race is heading.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Dan Gelber won the FL-AG primary for the Dems.
Good stuff I think Gelber is the stronger candidate.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

Too bad Aronberg was
not smart enough to just run against Rooney instead.

[ Parent ]
That's a no-hope race
Aronberg woulda been better off waiting for a better cycle.

[ Parent ]
Too bad Aronberg was
not smart enough to just run against Rooney instead.

[ Parent ]
Boyd's hanging on
although not by much. He's up 51-49, and the precincts left will probably pad his majority by a bit.

Go Chiles!
McCollum conceding according to the twtterverse.  

FUCK YES!
Downside is Rick Scott can bury Alex Sink in a mountain of cash, but as we've seen with Jeff Greene, Jon Corzine and hopefully Meg Whitman in November, no matter how much money you have, if the voters think your an asshole, you're still an asshole and you'll lose.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Although Scott
 Will definitely blanket the state with ads, Sink's ads defining Scott for who he really is should be more effective because of the material she can use. Sink has no real problems in her background. She is likeable and voters know her somewhat because she ran for Attorney General in 2006 and picked up the seat for the Democrats.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
She went from AG to CFO within the past 4 years?
I thought McCollum was elected AG in 2006?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
My Bad
 She is the CFO. McCollum was the AG.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Sink was the president of Bank of America
And that's not too popular.

[ Parent ]
About ten years ago
And nothing bad happened while she was at the helm. That makes me wonder, how wealthy is Sink? If Scott tries to bury her I wonder if she could infuse 10-15 million dollars of her own money to help counterattack.  

[ Parent ]
I'll repeat what I've said so often: the general electorate is FAR more resistant to campaigning than primary voters......
Unless Sink runs a campaign worthy of her surname, Dems won't budge for Scott, and indies also will be very resistant.  And Scott will have to work for GOP unity, that won't come as easily for him as it comes for a normal GOP nominee even after a bloody primary.

Yes Scott could bury Sink in an avalanche of attack ads, and Sink could run a bad campaign and lose, even convincingly.  Rick Scott is no Alvin Greene, or even Jeff Greene!

But Sink has the opportunity now to win with merely a competent campaign that smartly manages to hold the Dem base and appeal to the middle.

And Chiles may end up being her best friend if Republican McCollum supporters decide they can't hold their nose for Scott.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
They should just follow GOPVOTER's example


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
lol
McCollum was inching up for a bit, closed the gap to 36,000 votes. Then some more Scott precincts came in and his lead went back up to 40,000 or so. Oopsie! :]

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
markowitz is up
no wait, shumlin.  VT is one hell of a race tonight.  tied at 25% between 3 candidates.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I think this is what happens when people don't poll races
Specifically one as important as a governors race.

Aww well, the lack of polling for this is made up with the awesome results coming in.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Looking at
 The Democratic Senatorial primary, I noticed something interesting. Meek did well almost everywhere except for small white rural counties. You would think places like those would be turned off by Greene the rich billionaire but maybe the voters there disliked Meek more. What do you think is the reason for the numbers in the small counties?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Race
probably. Doesn't really matter anyway, Rubio is going to sweep those counties.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
You say race
But lest we forget, Rubio is Latino.  I really doubt racists like less brown people more than darker brown people.  I would actually assume they are equal opportunity racists who would vote for Crist, cuz he is the only white dude in that senate race.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Crist isn't white
He's orange.  

[ Parent ]
Hmm
I guess those Dixiecrats may just sit this one out then.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
But this is Florida
If you aren't orange, then something is very very wrong :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I disagree
I think being orange hurts him. Most people have a natural tan, Crist has a fake tan. Instead of going to FL beaches to get his tan, he goes to tanning salons instead of promoting FL's best resource. Thats the way I see it anyway.  

[ Parent ]
First of all
how did Mel Martinez do in those rural white counties in 2004?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Betty Castor won a handful of them
Specifically, Castor won most of Boyd's district, which outside of Tallahassee is filled with Dixiecrats who often vote Republican. Martinez won the western panhandle and almost all of the north central counties in the peninsula, however.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Martinez
 Actually did not do too well in those northern Florida Counties. Castor did really well up there, I think she won Wakulla County and even Liberty County where Obama only won 30% of the vote.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Ahhh
But what is he is promoting Florida Oranges by becoming Orange himself?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Ahhh
Thats it. Thats what he'll tell people anyway! I do want an orange anytime I look at him. Mostly to throw at him.  

[ Parent ]
Nah, they'll vote for Rubio. Racists in today's GOP are opportunistic and practice backhanded affirmative action......
Remember J.C. Watts and Gary Franks and Bobby Jindal, and now keep in mind Tim Scott and Nikki Haley.

There are plenty of white wingnuts who realize they need browner candidates to survive going forward and compete.  They HATE that the President is a black man with a funny name, but they realize the fact of his victory means they need to follow suit to stay relevant.

Crist is going to have to get his approvals back up, since they've gone down in recent weeks for reasons unknown, to pull it out.  Either that, or Meek tanks.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
FL-02 called for Boyd
an uninspiring victory of about 2,000 votes.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Meh
I'm more convinced than ever now that he's going down in November.  If his base is this lukewarm about him in a district that is trending away from the democrats, in a year of engaged republican turnout, I don't really see how he can win.

True, other incumbents haven't been setting the world on fire, but outside of a few isolated cases like Alan Mollohan going down against Mike Oliverio, few dem incumbents have performed this poorly in the primary round.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
It just goes to show
if you're a Democratic incumbent named Alan/Allan/Allen, the primary might be a big shitfest for you.

Alan Grayson is breathing a huge sigh of relief that no one filed against him.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Boyd
Everyone here treated him like he was dead in November. I always thought this race was toss-up/tilt D at best. After tonight, I am convinced this race is Lean R. I thought Boyd would win b/c of money. Lawson spent less than 300k while Boyd spent around 2 million for this pathetic win. Money is not everything, and if Southerland runs a competent campaign and raised money at the same pace, probably with a little increase due to signs of Boyd's weakness, he should win.  

From what I've heard from a constituents perspective,
Boyd is a horrible Congressman as well with horrible constituent relations. This was from a liberal Democrat by the way.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Liberal Democrats
Don't like him because he's a big proponent of privatizing social security and is very conservative. I expect he'll win another term, even easily. Sutherland isn't a strong enough candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
If this were '06 or '08, I would have been pulling hard for Lawson.  Can't say I'd shed any tears if Boyd loses in November, but we need the seat.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't expect any other opinion from a liberal democrat...
...Boyd has been a blue dog's blue dog for as long as he's been there...

[ Parent ]
In a state where there was no compelling Dem statewide race...
and Rep turnout overall was much higher than Dem... in this district with both competitive primaries 82,000 Dems voted and only 60,000 Reps.  

I can't see a way to spin this anything other than a likely Dem.


[ Parent ]
That's a good point
 But Democratic registration is high in that area. They will sometimes vote for Democrats popular up there like Sink in 2006 and McBride in 2002.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Everyone else
Had Boyd for dead months ago. also, this is alot lok AR with a lot of Dems who will vote Rep.  

[ Parent ]
Keep in mind
Lawson got mainly liberal and black Democrats voting for him, and these are the kinds of voters that won't jump to Republicans. Boyd won rural white Dixiecrats and other conservative Democrats that have always been his base and that's what makes it hard to see Sutherland winning. Had Lawson won, yes this would have been likely Republican.

[ Parent ]
But a lot of those voters....
....came to the polls to vote Boyd out!

[ Parent ]
And none of those will vote for Republican
And all those Dixiecrat Dems who will never change their registration, they are exactly like Boyd and they have been voting for him for years.

There is no way to make a case that he isn't at least lean Dem.


[ Parent ]
They
Oppose HCR Reform that Boyd voted for.  

[ Parent ]
So?
It's the economy, the economy any the economy.

the dude got 62% of the vote two years ago.  You seriously think more than 3% of the people will change their vote here or anywhere because of that freaking health care bill?  It's pure wonkism to think people on the street, especially Dixiecrats, are going to vote based on that one issue.


[ Parent ]
Wonkism?
Charlie Bass beat Paul Hodes by 20 in 2004 and lost by 7 in 2006. That's a 27 point swing against the same opponent in 24 months. And western NH is bluing no faster than the Panhandle is reddening. House elections, especially when the challenger is a Generic R/D like these cases, are so much about the environment. There has been such a backlash against Democrats since 2008 that a Boyd loss is absolutely possible.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
In a Republican leaning
district, yes. It is a very conservative district that Obama and the HCR bill is very unpopular in. 62% was in a Democrat year with Obama at the top of the ticket. You still don't realize that 2010 is NOT2008?  

[ Parent ]
I don't know I honestly think it's hard to out conservative Boyd.
Yes they could use the health care vote but I just don't think that alone is enough. I think the only way Boyd loses is if the disgruntled democrats that voted against him for his conservatism don't show up.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Prediction
Boyd, Spratt, Marshall, Bright, Davis, and Causey will win or lose as a unit. All are conservative Dixiecrats that would have had no trouble winning in the past but are in trouble because of the D next to their name. This might be the year that the white Southern Democrats essentially ceases to exist, or it might be the year where he proves his staying power.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Meek
And those voters will be showing up in November because of Meek.  And they won't be voting Republican.  Nonetheless, I'd rank this seat as tossup to lean R.

[ Parent ]
Recount in VT
What is their recount law? Mixed might for the RGA/DGA. RGA got terrible news for picking up FL (winning FL is now a pick up for both parties), great news for holding VT, with a very close Dem race looking headed toward a recount, and the best candidate possibly losing.  

there's supposed to be unity breakfast tomorrow
between the 5 dems.  it might be a bit awkward.  especially considering that shumlin and racine have already lost statewide once and are too old to wait ten years for a third chance (as is the rule per VT politics).  with shumlin desperate to win and racine desperate to hold his (probable) lead, there is a chance this could get ugly.  at least for VT.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Wait
You have to wait 10 yrs in VT to run again? It might be similar to the IL GOP unity event, where Brady and Dillard were in a tight recount during the unity breakfast.  

[ Parent ]
you have to wait ten years IF
A. You're not a republican (they have very little talent) and B. you lose TWICE statewide in a short period of time.  both racine and shumlin lost in 2002.  Welch lost a race for congress in 1988 and a race for governor in 1990.  He had to wait until 2006 to get elected as a US house member.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
its law?
Im confused??

[ Parent ]
no, sorry
if i wasn't writing it well.  I mean it's an unwritten law of the party.  they keep people from running statewide a third time if they lost twice before.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Oh
Got it now :)  

[ Parent ]
Dubie isn't seriously going to win...
is he?  Leahy's going to crush in the Senate race, so unless more than 20-25% of the electorate splits tickets, a Dubie win is impossible.  Maybe Vermont is one of those small states in the northeast that is independent/libertarian enough that ticket-splitting is popular, but you'd never know it by how it votes at the national level most of the time.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
He has
Led the polls, is very popular, has been elected statewide (by himself, not on a ticket) 5 times, and is being tied to popular governor Jim Douglas in RGA ads.  

[ Parent ]
Vermont
Governor. Just look at 2008 and see how many voters did a split ticket between Douglas, Welch, and Obama. 2006, Douglas, Welch, and Sanders and back.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Vermont's weird
It was as red as Utah not all that long ago (but never particularly conservative), and Republicans seriously contested VT-AL with a moderate as recently as 2006. So there's still a tradition of Yankee Republicanism, weakening though it may be.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
In 2008, 4 out of 10 Obama voters voted for Douglas.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

So it's not exactly hard to believe that Dubie can win.


[ Parent ]
YAY
Rick Scott won, now I get to Flaunt my Photoshop (see above) around the internets!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


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