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New Mexico: 3-0 with 57% Obama districts

by: abgin

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 8:34 PM EDT

Thanks to Dave's work I can write some diaries here about democratic gerrymander redistricting finding the limits for some states. I bid redistricting Maryland and New York previously.

I hope the democrats from New Mexico can have full control for have a good redistricting. New Mexico is not the state with worse redistricting but the things can improve still.

It is not easy to find the best way for redistricting New Mexico. The state is rated with D+2 but in the last election vote for Obama the 57% of the voters what is a D+5 level.

I think what a district with 57% Obama is not easy for republican candidates, and then, I wish find a 3-0 redistricting map, finding the limits for try win all the seats every election with the lowest effort.

abgin :: New Mexico: 3-0 with 57% Obama districts

Redistricting New Mexico, despite find the limits, gives the chance of find more compact models than New York. This is the map:

And the new districts data:

District 01:
- Incumbent: M Heinrich (D)
- Dark blue.
- Population: 607,027 with deviation of +678
- 2008 elections: 57% Obama; 42% McCain D+5.
- Racially: Wh 49%; HI 36%; Na: 10% ; Bl 2%; As 2%.

District 02:
- Incumbent: H Teague (D) or S Pierce (R)
- Dark green.
- Population: 604,063 with deviation of -2,286
- 2008 elections: 57% Obama; 42% McCain D+5.
- Racially: Wh 43%; HI 51%; Na: 2% ; Bl 2%; As 1%.

District 03:
- Incumbent: B Lujan
- Purple.
- Population: 607,956 with deviation of +1,607
- 2008 elections: 57% Obama; 42% McCain D+5.
- Racially: Wh 43%; HI 40%; Na: 14% ; Bl 1%; As 1%.

I try to keep all Alburquerque in the first district because I know not exactly where M Heinrich lives, and the city is big, but it is not difficult introduce a little change if is needed for keep inside M Heinrich.

The second district would be the more hispanic district, this is not my previous wish, but the numbers take this way, and I think would be very difficult for republican candidates like S Pierce. Leaving (near) all Alburquerque in the 1st, the second district needs some democratic votes from SantaFe county for up until 57% Obama.

In my bid, finding too compact districts, I divide only 3 counties between two districts:

Bernalillo: 1st and 3rd

Sandoval: 1st and 3rd

SantaFe: 2nd and 3rd

Can be this enough for leave to the republicans far of the New Mexico congressional delegations in the future? I think maybe with a population increasingly hispanic.

I wish good luck to the democrats from New Mexico. Les deseo la mejor suerte a los demócratas de New Mexico.

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New Mexico: 3-0 with 57% Obama districts | 10 comments

Question

I know that in Arizona it's illegal for Native American Reservations to be split between multiple Congressional Districts. Does the same law apply in New Mexico? If so, than this map would be thrown out because it splits at least the Navajo Nation between the 1st and the 3rd. Even if it's not explicitly illegal, the Navajo would probably sue over having their New Mexican territory cut in half like that. It's not like I'm an expert in New Mexican politics, but I doubt that there's the political will to deal with something like that.

Other than that, though, this isn't that bad of a bad plan. Get's the job done for sure. Harry Teague would probably face a primary, but that's not the end of the world.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

by: Nico @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 00:57:58 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

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This is a good question

I know not exactly about this, but if it was necessary, New Mexico gives option for a change.

I'm trying to revise it.

by: abgin @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 04:46:29 AM UTC

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Nice job!

It's not quite in the same category as your legendary (infamous?) New York map, but still.

by: emilysdad @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 06:07:32 AM UTC

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I plan a bid for redistricting California ;)

Still I need to find some previous information about more concret areas of residence of the democratic incumbents and about the rules what I must follow.

You know, finding the limits too in a 53-0 model. You can imagine the massacre of republican seats :)

by: abgin @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 09:59:06 AM UTC

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I can't wait to see that

Don't worry about the VRA as you do CA

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

by: duffman @ Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 00:53:47 AM UTC

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this was a reply to the california comment

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

by: duffman @ Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 00:54:21 AM UTC

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They are not VRA conditions for California?

My idea is to respect the current number of districts with hispanic, black or minority majorities finding the limits of this majorities.

The residence of some democratic incumbents is taking me more time because you know as example, what N Pelosi lives in San Francisco, but the city is very big and I would need to know in what town or city district lives her for can do a well bid. For New York SSP gives very helpful information about the representatives whit residence in the New York City.

I will bid.

by: abgin @ Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 06:17:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I see

It's hard to determine how many are possible vs how many there should be. What about districts that because majority-minority over time but weren't designed that way (I'm not sure if there are any in CA)

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

by: duffman @ Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 18:01:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Habitually

Habitually the districts where the minorities are majority are not the best for have low number of republican districts. The black-majority districts are big concentration of democratic votes what cause you have lower number of democratic votes for the other districts. For hispanic minorities the influence is lower, and I think California would not gives troubles since the VRA point. But habitually I try to minimine the minority majorities in my bids for redistricting blue states.

by: abgin @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 01:21:14 AM UTC

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