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Contest Entry: NY 28-0 with 58% Obama or more. Finding limits.

by: abgin

Fri Jan 08, 2010 at 7:44 AM EST


First days I was try to down the maps, but I have much trouble until the last change in the application what help me very much.

The philosophy for my model is so easy. If you need more democratic votes for make more democratic the districts, you must go where they are, you must go to New York City. That gives us a linear model what seems a rainbow for the redistricting.

My model try to find the limits, and I can draw a map with very much 59% Obama districts (D+7) but not all, I need down for some districts to 58% Obama (D+6). The first limit what stop me making more democratic New York districts is the limit of box in the Westchester County for can access with more districts to the area of New York City. The second limit would be the VRA conditions.

For make more compact the districts, but without lose the linear model, you only need down more districts to 58% Obama.

abgin :: Contest Entry: NY 28-0 with 58% Obama or more. Finding limits.
IMAGES:

New York 28-0 G1

New York 28-0 G2

New York 28-0 G3

New York 28-0 G4

DETAILS:

Only E Massa change his district number. He pass from 29th to 26th. All other democratis incumbents keep his number district.

P King and C Lee, the republican incumbents lose their districts.

Sometimes the areas where lives the incumbents are excessively big. I try to include all the areas in their districts, but for the 2nd, 8th, 14th and 15th districts I need to take some parts for other districts. Knowing exactly where live the incumbents would not be difficult to leave they in their districts.

I don't include McCain results because i can not see the end of the line of results. The line get cut without pass to a second line.

District 01:
- Incumbent: T Bishop
- Dark blue in Long Island.
- Population: 706,022 with deviation of +5,689
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 02:
- Incumbent: S Israel
- Dark green in Long Island, from Nassau until Suffolk.
- Population: 706,389 with deviation of +6,056
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 03:
- Incumbent: vacant
- Purple in western New York, linear district from Chautauqua until Manhattan.
- Population: 698,741 with deviation of -1,592
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 62%; Bl 7%; Hi 27%; As 2%.

District 04:
- Incumbent: C McCarthy and maybe P King (R)
- Red in Long Island, linear district from Queens until Suffolk.
- Population: 707,202 with deviation of +6,887
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 54%; Bl 15%; Hi 15%; As 9%.

District 05:
- Incumbent: G Ackerman
- Dark yellow in Long Island, from Queens until Nassau.
- Population: 704,967 with deviation of +4,634
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 52%; Bl 7%; Hi 14%; As 24%.

District 06:
- Incumbent: G Meeks
- Dark greenish blue in Long Island, from Brooklin until Nassau.
- Population: 694,093 with deviation of -6,240
- 2008 elections: 79% Obama D+27.
- Racially: Wh 32%; Bl 50%; Hi 10%; As 5%. VRA district

District 07:
- Incumbent: J Crowley
- Gray in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.
- Population: 696,707 with deviation of -3,626
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 51; Bl 3%; Hi 24%; As 18%.

District 08:
- Incumbent: J Nadler
- Light purplish blue in western New York, linear district from Erie until Manhattan (Upper West Side).
- Population: 706,893 with deviation of +6,350
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 09:
- Incumbent: A Weiner
- Light tuquoise in Long Island, from Queens until Suffolk.
- Population: 694,038 with deviation of -6,295
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 61%; Bl 10%; Hi 18%; As 8%.

District 10:
- Incumbent: E Towns
- Dark pink in New York City, Brooklin.
- Population: 693,891 with deviation of -6,442
- 2008 elections: 82% Obama D+30.
- Racially: Wh 26%; Bl 50%; Hi 13%; As 8%. VRA district

District 11:
- Incumbent: Y Clarke
- Light green in New York City, Brooklin.
- Population: 693,935 with deviation of -6,398
- 2008 elections: 85% Obama D+33.
- Racially: Wh 31%; Bl 50%; Hi 11%; As 4%. VRA district

District 12:
- Incumbent: N Velázquez
- Blue in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.
- Population: 695,534 with deviation of -4,799
- 2008 elections: 84% Obama D+32.
- Racially: Wh 29%; Bl 11%; Hi 48%; As 8%. VRA district

District 13:
- Incumbent: M McMahon
- Salmon in New York City, from Staten Island until Manhattan by water link.
- Population: 706,942 with deviation of +6,609
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 8%; Hi 13%; As 11%.

District 14:
- Incumbent: C Maloney
- Dark brownish green in New York City and Long Island, from Manhattan until north Suffolk.
- Population: 706,712 with deviation of +6,379
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 81%; Bl 3%; Hi 7%; As 6%.

District 15:
- Incumbent: C Rangel
- Orange in New York City, from Manhattan until Queens.
- Population: 695,108 with deviation of -5,225
- 2008 elections: 86% Obama D+34.
- Racially: Wh 44%; Bl 14%; Hi 27%; As 12%. VRA district

District 16:
- Incumbent: J Serrano
- Green in New York City, Bronx.
- Population: 693,589 with deviation of -6,744
- 2008 elections: 95% Obama D+43.
- Racially: Wh 3%; Bl 32%; Hi 61%; As 1%. VRA district

District 17:
- Incumbent: E Engel
- Dark purplish blue in the south of western New York, linear district neighboring Pennsylvania, from Chautauqua until Manhattan (Upper West Side).
- Population: 706,897 with deviation of +6,564
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 5%; Hi 10%; As 3%.

District 18:
- Incumbent: N Lowey
- Light Yellow in northern New York, from Dutchess until Queens.
- Population: 695,784 with deviation of -4,549
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 6%; Hi 16%; As 6%.

District 19:
- Incumbent: J Hall
- Green in northern New York, from Saratoga and Washington until Putnam.
- Population: 693,403 with deviation of -6,930
- 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+6.
- Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 20:
- Incumbent: S Murphy
- Light pink in northern New York, from Jefferson until the Bronx.
- Population: 703,781 with deviation of +3,448
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 70%; Bl 19%; Hi 7%; As 2%.

District 21:
- Incumbent: P Tonko
- Dark red in northern New York, linear district from Oswego until the Bronx.
- Population: 706,364 with deviation of +6,031
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 67%; Bl 14%; Hi 13%; As 3%.

District 22:
- Incumbent: M Hinckey
- Brown in western New York, linear district from Erie until the Bronx.
- Population: 706,466 with deviation of +6,133
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 9%; Hi 20%; As 3%.

District 23:
- Incumbent: W Owens
- Ligth turquoise in northern New York, from Syracuse until Albany.
- Population: 693,837 with deviation of -6,496
- 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 90%; Bl 5%; Hi 2%; As 1%.

District 24:
- Incumbent: M Arcuri
- Dark purple in western New York, linear district from Ontario until Manhattan.
- Population: 695,810 with deviation of -4,523
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 72%; Bl 16%; Hi 8%; As 2%.

District 25:
- Incumbent: D Maffei
- Pink in western New York, from Buffalo until Onondaga.
- Population: 693,428 with deviation of -6,905
- 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 87%; Bl 8%; Hi 2%; As 2%.

District 26:
- Incumbent: E Massa
- Dark gray in western New York, from Steuben until Rockland.
- Population: 700,655 with deviation of +322
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 7%; Hi 7%; As 3%.

District 27:
- Incumbent: B Higgins and C Lee (R)
- Green in western New York, from Erie until Monroe.
- Population: 693,889 with deviation of -6,444
- 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 78%; Bl 14%; Hi 4%; As 1%.

District 28:
- Incumbent: L Slaughter
- Light purple in western New York, Monroe.
- Population: 693,567 with deviation of -6,766
- 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.
- Racially: Wh 77%; Bl 13%; Hi 5%; As 2%.

They are four districts in 58% Obama. You can increase three of they until 59% Obama, but the fourth down until 55-56% Obama (D+3 or D+4) because can not access to the New York City area.

Well, sure republicans will hate this model, and maybe democrats smile. New York gives the chance of a good redistricting for democrats.

Poll
What districts are "safe democratic" for you in New York?
Worse than R+4 can be "safe" too in New York
R+4 (48% Obama) or better for dems
R+3 (49% Obama) or better for dems
R+2 (50% Obama) or better for dems
R+1 (51% Obama) or better for dems
EVEN (52% Obama) or better for dems
D+1 (53% Obama) or better for dems
D+2 (54% Obama) or better for dems
D+3 (55% Obama) or better for dems
D+4 (56% Obama) or better for dems
D+5 (57% Obama) or better for dems
D+6 (58% Obama) or better for dems
D+7 (59% Obama) or better for dems
D+8 (60% Obama) or better for dems
You need more for have a "safe" district in NY

Results

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Wow! Just wow!
The NYT Editorial Board will hate it, but f**k them!

Wow...I think
this might be the map that finally causes the Supreme Court to put some sort of limits on partisan gerrymandering.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

bingo
Those long skinny districts are not going to cut it.

[ Parent ]
Of course they're gonna cut it!
It looks like the state's been sliced up like a bell pepper under the knife of a masterful chef!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Reminds me of the beautiful IA map that turned King's district D+something.


[ Parent ]
Thanks, that was me!
Here's a link to my Iowa diary if anyone is interested: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

[ Parent ]
that was a great one
I included it in my massive linkfest on Iowa politics in 2009 at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
My hat is off to you.
Somewhere Elbridge Gerry is wryly smiling.

You sir, are a true artist.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


This one definitely wins the Phil Burton "Contribution to Modern Art" award
The effect of conjoining flowing lines with the occasional splotch of color is quite stunning.  Truly revolutionary. I could totally see it hanging in a museum.  My hat is off to you!

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

My Opinion
 I really like the creativity and the safety of all the Democrats! My only concern is that this map is a bit too convoluted for my taste and I do not know if the Democrats want to go all out for a map like this. Great map though!

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Wow
It's beautifully, but completely absurd as a congressional map. This is taking the contest to an abstract level.  

"beautiful", I mean
I like the colors.  

[ Parent ]
Oh my freakin' gawd...
It came without ribbons!

And it has them now!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


More seriously, there are problems with this approach
If you have a large swath of rural western New York represented by someone from the Upper West side you may cause trouble from them due to regional identity politics.  For Example, an Obama voter in the Southern Tier may not want to be represented by a "Manhattan Liberal" even though they'd be perfectly happy with someone like Eric Massa.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

We Gerryists
do not concern ourselves with such petty matters as "cultures", "people wanting to represented by people like themselves", and "the law".

Okay, maybe not that last one.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Agree
Some people would change their votes because the map is so gerrymandered. Maybe not that many, but enough to make a difference and offset a good amount of the generic partisan advantage that the map otherwise provides. For that reason, these seats may really be more like 55% Obama seats.

[ Parent ]
maybe but i think these democrats are favored in the model

I think democrats from the west or north are favored in this model because in the majority of linear districts what goes to New York city finding more democratic votes, the incumbents are from the west and the north. These incumbents would be supported and helped by democratic votes from New York City.

And you can have the opposite effect, republicans from the City, what are much more moderates than other republicans from the upstate can vote more easily democratic incumbents from the west and the north of the state.



[ Parent ]
Do people from the "five bouroughs" still
refer to their town as "The City"?

One thing I learned from my time upstate is that phrase epitomizes the arrogance of anyone from downstate. I'm surprised that the various secession movements haven't gained more strength.

One admittedly R option is discussed here http://www.rochestercitynewspa...  


[ Parent ]
No
Only Manhattan is referred to as "The City." And if you're in the Bay Area, San Francisco is "The City." It all depends on your point of reference.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Arrogance? Really?
Everyone in Minnesota refers to Minneapolis/St Paul as "the cities".  Granted, I dont think there is nearly as much animosity between Greater Minnesota and MSP vs Upstate and NYC.  We take up a lot of funding in many regards, but we pay back Greater Minnesota with all of our tourism and camping up North where most of the lakes are.  (If you are ever looking for a fab place to rent a cabin or go camping, northern Minnesota is serene.)

But arrogance?  Sorry for recognizing the economic and cultural center of the state and monogramming it into the phrase "the city".  Lame.


[ Parent ]
I think the arrogance quotient is much lower in MN
(mods, please forgive this digression, but Andrew asks a legit question.)

Just to be clear - "arrogance" is a personal observation from my time as a foul mouthed kid, not anything objective.

My wife grew up near Alec... but even in MSP, I've found that "Minnesota nice" is real :)

meanwhile I grew up (in upstate NY) around people who wished that NYC would separate itself and leave the rest of us alone. They do not recognize NYC as the center of anything. For me as a kid, "downstate" started at the thruway (I-90), the approximate physical N/S midline of NY State.

But despite my age, I still think NYC is much less accessible to upstaters than MSP is to the rest of the state. At least for me, after having travelled extensively, I still feel more fear w/r/t NYC than any other major world metropolis.

So yes, the reaction comes in part from fear.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's not arrogance
I'm sure every major city has a bubble around it in which most people call it "the city." NYC, being so huge, just has a bigger bubble. But yeah, even people from the outer boroughs refer specifically to Manhattan as "the city."

And also, you have nothing to fear! NYC is the safest big city in the country, and the crime rate keeps dropping.


[ Parent ]
I do [i]not[/i] claim that the fear is rational
(just like the rest of my feelings as a kid)

[ Parent ]
So keep this in mind: It's not Manhattanites' fault
that people from other places call Manhattan "The City." To me, the entire City of New York is "The City," but people in Brooklyn and Queens don't seem to agree with me. :-)

How about if we make a deal? You drop the claim that the expression "The City" is an expression of Manhattanites' arrogance (we, after all, live here, so naturally it's "The City" to us!), and I won't post about malapportionment of state funding except where it's directly relevant. Cool?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The (irrational) perception of mine is that
people from metro NYC - not just Manhattan - or really not just the five boroughs, believe that NYC is the center of the universe, ala the New Yorker cartoon map.

And in my perception, NYC is more than Manhattan, despite the post office definition.

However, I do my best to keep such perceptions from affecting my judgments of people from the area.

Nevertheless, my stereotypes of people of the area jump out of me on occasion.

Trying to get back towards topic, I'm trying to explain some of the animus between upstate and metro NYC, from a personal perspective.


[ Parent ]
Upstate, Downstate
I typed up a longish post but decided it was off topic, so I'll just say that I think a lot of the animus of Upstaters for New York City is based on a lie: They think that New York City is living off their money. Instead, the opposite is true, although the disproportionate funding for Upstate is not uniform and often doesn't go where it's most needed.

As for Upstaters' envy of the city, it strikes me as sort of pointless, given that our city shares the name of the state, and therefore, at least 99% of the world thinks of New York as the city, not the state. The whole state of New York would do well to embrace a degree of identification with or at least appreciation of the city that makes it so famous, even while maintaining separate regional identities (obviously, Buffalo is a very different city and Western New York is a very different region than New York City). If you were to subtract the city and rename the state, you'd also watch it lose significance nationally and worldwide.

I'm not fully convinced even this post is on-topic, so I will probably bow out of this tangent now.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Another "City"
I was shocked to hear some of my Kansan friends and relatives recently refer to Kansas City as "the City". Having grown up there in the suburbs, I'd not really heard that phrase. But apparently, all the cool kids are saying it now*.

In terms of urban agglomerations, part of the reason NYC gets so much guff from upstate is that their size/influence is overwhelming. When you say "New York" to folks outside New England, they usually assume you mean the city, not the state. That would get annoying to New Yorkers who've never ridden a subway.

But in the Midwest, most folks are generally positive toward "The City", if for no other reason than they don't have to drive all the way to Denver or St. Louis to shop....or have to settle for Wichita.

*Cool Kids Source: my little brother

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Even in New England
"New York" means the city.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I don't get it
"But in the Midwest, most folks are generally positive toward "The City", if for no other reason than they don't have to drive all the way to Denver or St. Louis to shop....or have to settle for Wichita."

What do you mean by this?

Also, I always call the city "New York City".  I REALLY hate it when people refer to it rather than the state when they say "New York".

(Same goes for people using "LA" to mean Los Angeles, and "USC" to mean "University of Southern California".  My fellow political junkies, you know what I think of when I see "LA" or "SC".)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
surely there are problems
Every incumbent should adapt to the new district. Some goes from R+5 to D+7 and some others goes from D+20 to D+7. Every district should find a new balance. Very much districts are very differents to current districts, but democratic vote is here, i think helping incumbents. For improve the worst districts you must quit from the safest districts.

For the linear districts, a big basis of democratic vote come from New York City area. This districts are a strongly democratic nucleus in New York City with a strongly republican area out New York City in charge. This is necessary for keep high the level of democratic vote in every district.

In all the state (out New York City), the more democratic areas form the districts what needs not to enter in the area of New York City (27th, 28th, 26th, 25th, 23th or 19th and 1st or 2nd in Long Island, all they with local incumbents), and the more republican areas form the districts what goes to New York City area finding a lot of democratic votes. Some of they with incumbents from New York City, and others with incumbents from out of New York City. The stablishment should help they.

In this diary i find the limits :)


[ Parent ]
You did
find the limits. :)

It would be very difficult to squeeze out more Democratic districts than you did. Congratulations on a monumental effort.


[ Parent ]
thanks :)

My 15th and 16th have a little reserve for improve more districts respecting the VRA conditions, but I find not the way for up the 58% districts to 59%. The 19th can not access to the New York City areas and that make very difficult to improve.

Thanks :)


[ Parent ]
Me like
I had thought about this in theory. It is quite something to see it in practice! Very colorful.

By comparison, all the other maps look like paragons of good government redistricting. :)


I'm still stunned at how the southern part of the western tip of the state got connected to
something in one of those zoomed-in maps.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I was drinking coffee
when I saw. That was a mistake.

[ Parent ]
I didn't think this was possible
I thought most districts would peter out around Schoharie and Delaware for the most part. You proved me wrong.

It's absurd, but it's wonderfully so.


This probably
will not win the babka, but it deserves some kind of consolation prize for all-around awesomeness.  Maybe a delicious knish.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
This is insane
It's beautiful to look at and definitely an interesting exercise, but there's no way a map with such huge driving distances between one end of so many districts and the other will be approved. It's impractical. Still, hats off to you!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


One million cocktails to you, sir
That is an affront to compactness, good government, and basic decency. I like it a lot.

I mean, really.  It's stunning in its stark beauty.


I will not compete in this contest.
Not anymore. I can't.

This is artistry.  


You only have 5 stripes through Long Island
Answer Guy beat you. He has 6 stripes through Long Island.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

6 Stripes?
I guess I'm kind of embarassed that I came up with something even more absurd in an abstract sense than someone deliberatly casting non-absurdity to the wind. :)

I had thought of it as 4 stripes, since Lowey doesn't have anything other than Great Neck and the Port Washington area and Bishop's district doesn't cross onto the main part of Long Island in Nassau County.  

Oh, well.

If one wasn't nervous about pushing Ackerman and/or Lowey below 60% and wasn't as concerned about getting both Bishop and Israel into 55+% Obama disticts, it'd be pretty easy to take my plan and reduce the number of stripes.


36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
10 stripes
If you draw a line from the northeast corner of Putnam to the west corner of Rockland, in that distance of 40 miles you will go through 10 congressional districts!

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

wow just wow
What a superb map. Profoundly impractical but fantastically well done! Thanks for making me chortle - big time.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

imagine going on Better Know A District if you represent one of these


26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Bold, very bold!
Not to be a bitch but I wont give you credit for coming up with such a concept as Im sure many of us have thought in our various redistricting projects to do something of this nature.  

BUT, you are the only to have done it, and for a contest no less.  What a great job!  I bet it was downright tedious and frustrating and my hat is off to you.

Maloney's district is my absolute fave.  Not only is it a hot mess, but when you think about it being the Upper East Side and combining it with sections of what Im assuming are rich GOP areas of Long Island, the district actually makes sense.

Id tweak if I were a resident of Yonkers, however.  


Love It!
That is amazing!  lol this is great!  I think this map easily takes the top spot for most whacked out gerrymanders of a state!

Love It! Love It! Love It!


well
Given that compactness is not a requirement to win I think that this map will take the babka.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

Republican's Heads explode
If the thought of having an entire NY Delegation be made up of safe, reliable Democratic votes, doesn't make their heads explode, then the fact that the map looks like a beautiful and fabulous gay pride rainbow flag should! kudos! I'm against gerrymandering, but its awesome to see it in theory, if not in practice! Great work!

Congrats on getting on DKos front page!
I love the fact that the Upper East Side is connected to the Hamptons...it's actually kind of fitting. Also, love that the Bronx is in the same district as Rome.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Actually
This NY-14 takes in the North Fork, which is not considered part of the Hamptons. Those are still part of Tim Bishop's district in the South Fork.

[ Parent ]
Good call n/t


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
LOL
When it comes to redistricting I am normally pretty conservative, I like my districts compact and communities of interest kept intact, but your NY rainbow map made me smile. I think I can hear Freepers heads exploding from here. I may have to try something like this for Minnesota.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Really phenomenal work
This is one of the most incredible maps I have ever seen and it is so creative and ingenious. From what I understood, the contest was not necessarily about whether the plan would be adopted in real life, it was mostly an exercise in creating a map that was as Democratic as possible and that was creative at the same time, which this map does so well.

You're NY-15 will be in the courts
and I imagine it would probably lose, as a White candidate would be heavily favored to succeed Rangel. While there's a reasonable chance that Rangel's successor in the current NY-15 will be White, s/he would have to get there by currying substantial support from district's minority population. Among other things, I imagine the district is vulnerable to a challenge on League of United Latin American Citizens v. Texas grounds.

Granted, it's not like it would be impossible to argue that the loss of a seat "requires" that the balance of racial power in this district has to be shifted. I don't know all of the circumstances around the 2000 redistricting of NY-17, but it shifted it from a plurality Black district to majority White.

NY-07 probably has a similar problem, though. The point is that I think there's a very good chance that a judge takes one look at your map and throws just about every district in Manhattan and the Bronx out the window.

Overall though, good work in the context of the contest. An atrocious prospect in terms of public policy, but that's not what we're here for, is it :)

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


NY-15 and NY-16
I try to respect the conditions of the contest. If NY-15 is signaled like minority-majority district, this 15th would have not problems, but if must be a hispanic majority district or a 47% hipanic district, i think the conditions needs to be more open for the 16th district where is necessary a 60% hispanic.

If I would be member of the League of United Latin American Citizens v. Texas grounds I would not challenge this.


[ Parent ]
You're right that you meet the requirements of the contest
The problems are if this map is applied during actual redistricting. You've cracked the Hispanic and Black communities in Manhattan and the Bronx and turned a district that gave some of them a voice and that favored a Hispanic or Black representative into a district that probably favors more than anyone a White representative from Lower Manhattan. It is Minority-Majority district, but Whites have a 17% edge over anyone else. Once you factor in registered voters, that gulf widens, possibly putting Whites over 50% of the likely electorate. I don't see the DOJ going for it, and even if they do, minority voter protection groups will fight it tooth and nail.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
But aren't "coalition" districts like this
Protected under the VRA? See the dicta in Bartlett v. Strickland.

[ Parent ]
OH-11
I've been dinking around with OH and while I've done some magic everywhere else around the state, making a black majority district out of the east side of Cleveland while having to expand the districts due to losing 2 of them, I just cant  dont do it.  Black plurality, definitely, majority....  No idea how.

[ Parent ]
I have problems for send the XML archive

My email tell it is excessively big (10.2 MB).

What can be the better way for send the archive? Other emails can send this archive?


Are you sending it through GMAIL?
They generally have the best attachment limits. Anyway, your best bet would be to upload it to an upload site (like http://www.rapidshare.com/ ) and link to it in your email.  

[ Parent ]
thanks by your help

helpful for me

[ Parent ]
Brilliant set of slithering snakes!


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

I saw this for the first time looking at the tweet the SSP profile just posted
May make me want to Gerrymander the hell out of CA and make it look similar.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

This map is both hilarious and diabolically evil.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


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