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AR-01: Crawford Crushes Causey in New Poll

by: James L.

Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 2:36 PM EDT


Talk Business Research/Hendrix College for Talk Business (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Chad Causey (D): 32
Rick Crawford (R): 48
Ken Adler (G): 4
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Ouch; what a brutal starting position for Chad Causey. Crawford, the beneficiary of a slam-dunk primary win, has an eye-popping 43-13 favorable rating, a much higher mark than the battle-scarred Causey's 29-26. Each man is unknown to nearly half of the electorate, so there is still quite a bit of room for this race to evolve, but shifting it back away from the GOP will be a tough task. For his part, Causey will have to hope that Crawford's past bankruptcy troubles become a bigger deal than that issue is today.

Note that this sample has a sample composition of 33% Republican and 31% Democratic -- probably a more GOP-friendly sample than we'd be used to seeing from this ancestrally Democratic district, but maybe indicative of the folks who will actually be showing up to the polls this November.

UPDATE: The Causey campaign has responded by releasing their own internal poll (available below the fold) by Garin Hart Yang (8/16-18) showing the race at a much closer margin of 41-40 for Crawford. Details below.
James L. :: AR-01: Crawford Crushes Causey in New Poll
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AR-01: Crawford Crushes Causey in New Poll | 38 comments
There's also an internal from the Causey campaign
that shows him behind 41-40, according to Chris Cilizza.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Do you have a link?

[ Parent ]
Nevermind
The poll found its way into my inbox, but thanks for flagging that.
[ Parent ]
Just as I suspected
This is a Lean R race.  One poll is Crawford +16, the other is Crawford +1 (internal).  That averages out to Crawford +8 or +9, maybe even +10 if you give a bit of a house effect to the democratic internal.  

With the republicans cruising on the generic ballot throughout the southeast, I would expect many more polls like this to come out in house districts throughout the region over the next month.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Yeah
From Virginia to Texas, I expect the Democrats to lose 14 seats.  Whether they can hold on to the House will be determined in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York and Arizona.
[ Parent ]
Once again...
Republicans may sweep open seats in the South. There is a good chance they won't win one where an incumbent is running for reelection. It's close in GA-08, TN-04 is runaway for Davis right now, I'd have to imagine Bright is up by 5-10 in AL-02, MS-04 is runaway Taylor, AR-04 is runaway Ross, MS-04 Skeleton is leading by a small margin, and GA-02, Bishop is leading by 5-10 points. I would say MS-01 is the only seat in the South (That I can think of right now) where the Democrat is down. This obviously doesn't include Florida.

Yes, Republicans could sweep LA-03, TN-08, TN-06, AR-01, AR-02. But we have to take into account the personal popularity of Democrats. Taylor survived 1994 after all

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Talk Business = We're Republican
Anyway, as I said in the other thread, I won't be the least bit surprised if republicans win this seat.  It's # 17 on my list of most likely Dem to Rep switches.
Well, the top-lines are pretty bad
if the best your campaign can do is still showing you down by 1, then that isn't a big vote of confidence.  However, those approval ratings are something to focus on and knowing that Causey will be airing many a negative ad, I'm sure those numbers will look less Jesus-like by EDay.

Still some room for optimism, but I think we'll lose it.  And I've already stopped caring about it; there are many other seats Id rather focus my life towards and give a damn about.

2Q Fundraising numbers
Causey 412k raised, 91k CoH (primary)
Crawford 126k raised, 214k CoH

If Causey can keep that pattern up, he'd bury him.

Too bad.
I like Causey. He is young and I thought he had a good career ahead of him. Dems seem to be a dying breed in Arkansas. I wonder how Pryor will do in 2014. It is possible that in 2015 he have no dems in federal office at all in Arkansas if Ross runs for Governor in 2014.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I think
Pryor has enough personal popularity from his father's name to survive reelection.

I find it amusing that the Democrats still control 2/3 of both houses of the state legislature
State senate: 77% of control
State Assembly: 72% of control

Arkansas is in like the top 5 legislatures with the highest democratic control  

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
Republicans are claiming they lead in every legislative contest they've polled
Of course, even if the Republicans won every seat they're contesting, the Senate would still be under Dem control (20/15, as opposed to the current 27/8), though the House would be under Republican control (44/56, as opposed to 72/28 currently).

It is possible that we're seeing a major realignment in the state, though, and Republicans could make big gains in the legislature.

[ Parent ]
hmm
I would be shocked if that actually happened in november

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
Unless
Pryor forgets to return to Arkansas in the next four years, he should be fine. He is personally very popular and 2014 will probably be better than 2010 for Democrats.

Lincoln never was extremely popular.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
What is his current approval rating? nm


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Last one was done awhile ago...
...but the GOP-loving SurveyUSA, and it was quite crappy... He was only a few points better than Lincoln, but it was during the health care debate in December, so everyone looked bad there.
[ Parent ]
Lincoln
made a show of acting like a loser on healthcare; Pryor quietly opposed the more liberal versions and worked in good faith to get a compromise. (I remember he was involved in the medicare opt-out, which blew up eventually)


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
He may have a good political career ahead of him just yet.
I don't know if there's a tradition of Arkansas Democrats losing congressional races and later going on to win higher offices, but Bill Clinton is one who came to mind (with polar opposite circumstances, to be fair: in 1974, he ran in the ultra-Republican 3rd district and lost, but by a relatively close margin.

On the other side of the aisle, there's also Mike Huckabee.

[ Parent ]
I wonder if Arkansas is experiencing what Vermont went through in the 80's and 90's
Vermont had been a Republican bastion since the days of Lincoln, and even voted against FDR four times. It became a much more liberal place, but held onto its Republican tradition at both the state and federal levels even as the rest of New England shifted to the Democrats. Eventually, however, Vermonters realized that they were better off voting for the party that matched their political views than voting for the party their family had supported for generations, and now it is one of the most Democratic places in the country.

Arkansas remains true blue at all but the presidential level, but you have to wonder how long it will be before they undergo the same change as Vermont.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Yes

[ Parent ]
Good Example
I expect Arkansas to be about as red as Idaho in twenty years. Maybe less. Though I take solace that Texas could be a blue state in that amount of time.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'll take that trade any day of the week
I'll gladly give up Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia in exchange for Texas and Arizona.

Realignment is facinating to consider, though.  I looked at some of the data from 1988, and Michael Dukakis got a higher percentage of the vote in Oklahoma (41%, and won over 30 counties) than he did in New Hampshire, Florida, or Virginia -- and only did 1% worse in Oklahoma than he did in New Jersey.

I really think one of the under-explored aspects of our current political realignment is how partisanship has come into line with ideology (i.e. fewer Arkansas D's or Vermont R's).

[ Parent ]
its fascinating
that SD was actually D-leaning that year.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Many
have said it and it is true that it is very hard to imagine a Republican winning the White House if Texas is a blue state. With the growing Hispanic population the GOP is really screwing themselves. I mean their stances may help them now but in the long term they are looking at being in the minority for a very long time if we have the Latino vote in the bag like we do now and I do not see how they go over to the Republicans again. They will not forget easily. I have heard somewhere that within my lifetime over half of this country will speak Spanish.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
Remember, before Pete Wilson and the Republicans there pushed Prop 187, California was a toss-up/Republican leaning state.  Starting in 1968, CA voted R for 6 straight Presidential elections.  Now, there are many factors, of course, for the massive shift to the left in CA, but losing Latino voters for a generation was a big part of it.
[ Parent ]
i don't think this is true
a more nativist GOP could try and get the support of some union members on social issues, pick up MN, WI, OH, and keep MI/PA close.  this would balance out TX/AZ if GOP won FL

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
IDK
I think my point still stands. Just to be clear I am not talking about the next two cycles or anything, I am talking long term. I did not say that we would have it in the bag but it makes it a lot easier if Texas is an automatic blue state. If Texas is an easy win then we would just have to win some of the states you list. Florida is trending away from us and Michigan might vote R in 2012 but I doubt they will after the economy picks up again. Per the rest all of them tend to be in our favor and I think will be for awhile. They may be sour on Obama now but that does not mean they are trending Republican. Playing the pro-life card is not going to save Republicans with Latinos. True they are probably majority pro-life now but they care about other issues much more and will not forget what the Republicans think of them easily. Plus I seem to remember reading that the Hispanic youth is trending our way on social issues such as abortion. I could be wrong but I think as time goes on social issues will not be very relevant. More and more people are becoming pro-choice especially in the youth and I could be very wrong in saying this but I do not see it being that important of an issue in the future. Your young, how many people do you know that are pro-life? From what I have heard even young Republicans are moving to the center on that issue. The core principals of the Democratic Party benefit the Latino community and I think that the Republicans are making grave mistakes right now.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
You should look for
Nate Silver's post about Operation Gringo.

Basically, if the Dems started winning TX and AZ, the GOP would have to start winning basically every D-leaning state with a large population (NH, WI, etc) and I think even then the Dems would eventually get ahead since TX and AZ are growing much faster than the Rust Belt states.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
my group of friends
are nearly all white, upper middle/upper class, and liberal, as well as having a large minority of jews (with a conservative and a libertarian in the mix).  i don't really think that it's representative of california or the nation.  however, i definitely know people at my school that are pro-life, but my public bay area hs was 82% for Obama.  There is a private relatively cheap catholic school that has many more religious/conservative students, so that makes mine very liberal, esp. socially

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
there were actually
quite a few pro-life people at my HS (disclaimer: I live in the most Catholic state in the country).

It's really funny because some of the most wild-eyed pro-life kids at my school were also the first to smack down anyone who said anything bad about gay kids.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
We don't have the latino vote in the bag...
...nor are we even close to having it.  The Latino vote is still shockingly swingy, even though the GOP demonizes the demographic like no other. It's rather disturbing that so many folks would choose their oppressors willingly in an election.  We have to do more to lock that group down, and immigration reform would have been a great start.
[ Parent ]
Vermont
 Even voted just 51% for Gore and although Nader was a factor (winning 8% of the vote,) Vermont was the only state (besides South Dakota) for Bush to receive a smaller percentage of the vote in 2004 than in 2000. Also, Vermont has experienced an influx of residents from liberal urban areas. I want to point out too that Republicans back in the day were much more liberal in the Northeast like Nelson Rockefeller and LaGuardia.

There is also that Republican tradition in New Jersey too which seems to be returning again with Christie winning. Also, New Hampshire seems to be going the same way as Vermont too.

I have family in the New York/New Jersey area. One of my relatives voted Republican for President until 1980 when she supported John Anderson. She is a strong Democrat now although she did have some doubts about Obama's experience but she voted for him. She is a registered independent but in her heart is definitely a Democrat. Her sister will not say who she supported but her husband voted for Obama and she has some liberal views.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'll agree with most of the above
Except New Hampshire is not going the way of Vermont yet. Vermont became a haven for hippies and disillusioned New Yorkers in the 60's and 70's and has been a progressive place ever since. New Hampshire experienced nothing of the sort, and has instead been invaded by moderate Massachusetts transplants who want to be free of the state income tax. These voters have helped the Democrats over the top in recent years, but New Hampshire remains a very moderate place overall with a strong fiscally conservative streak.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The Massachusetts Residents
 I am actually not too sure about that although you may be right. In 2004, Bush actually did better in 2000 in Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties where the Massachusetts transplants are going. Kerry improved in the liberal college towns near Vermont. This article I read said that New Hampshire is not becoming more like Massachusetts but it is becoming more like Vermont.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
If Crawford wins, it won't be in a blowout
Especially since neither candidate has a lot of name ID. This is where most of the states Democrats are, so Causey will get more than 32%. This would be a big marginal for Republicans if they did win it.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Well
of course. No candidate in a district a Dem is vacating except maybe TN-06 and LA-03 is going to get 32% of the vote.

The winner will win between 50-56% of the vote.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I don't doubt Causey is down, but how was the 33% R determined?
I doubt there are 33% of the population in AR-1 who EVEN NOW would ID as Republican. Not to mention that the 31% D ID seems extremely low considering how strongly people have clung to the D label in AR-1 by sending, almost exclusively, conservative Democrats to the State Legislature. If this turns out to be reflective of how people are IDing, than the shift is seismic and should be an academic study (seriously).  

Democrat: TN-8
According to Steve Singiser at Daily Kos
a late July poll showed Causey leading Crawford by 3. Not sure if that was reported.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

I saw it
in the polling memo, woops.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
AR-01: Crawford Crushes Causey in New Poll | 38 comments

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