Public Policy Polling (8/14-15, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parens):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (30)
Bill Brady (R): 39 (34)
Rich Whitney (G): 11 (9)
Undecided: 20 (27)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Just brutal. Some numbers: Pat Quinn’s job approval rating is an off-the-rails 23-53, he’s in third place among independents (at 15% to 19% for Whitney and 40% for Brady), and can only muster up 60% of Democrats to support his campaign.
Bill Brady may be a crazy, conservative SOB, but this is the type of year where voters may be willing to give crazy a chance — or at least, enough of them seem prepared to not stand in crazy’s way while it barrels down on Mr. Unpopularity like a freight train. After all, it’s not like the DGA isn’t trying to define Brady in the minds of voters. We just aren’t seeing any positive polling results so far for all their efforts.
…rapidly approaching 0. 🙂
All this Blago stuff in the news isn’t helping. If Kirk didn’t have such a bad record he too would be coasting along as well.
meet Pat Quinn. I can’t believe all of us were cheering a few months ago when Bill Brady beat Kirk Dillard. I would of rather had a suburban moderate like Dillard instead of an hard core right winger like Brady who’s going to ride into Springfield on the Anybody but Quinn vote.
They don’t expect Brady’s numbers to improve at all, where Quinn could still win over Democrats. It could be one of those “ugly” wins, but if Brady has all the support he’s going to get, this one may not be over.
Nine points is not “clobbering” in my book.
And with 20% undecided and 11% Green, Quinn has room to grow.
At the very least, I hope IL Dems can salvage the Senate seat. I worry Quinn is going to prove a huge drag on the ticket and given that Giannoulias isn’t particularly strong anyway… well, it’s not a pretty situation.
Dammit, Lisa Madigan should have run for the governorship. Or the Senate. Or at the very least, IL Dems should have picked Hynes over Quinn.
Blago has been the top story during the last week. I have to believe that hurts Quinn now, but will it be as salient two months from now?
Is there a precedent for a major party candidate dropping out this close to the election in Illinois? I know Scott Lee Cohen got forced out and was replaced by the state party, but that was months ago.
If Quinn would stand down for someone like David Hoffman, that would be awesome.
-Quinn is down by 9 in a poll with a MOE of 4.2%
-Undecideds are at 20%
-Green Party candidate with 11%
So we all understand MOE, so that should give us pause. We also know undecideds have every reason to have jumped to one candidate or another, yet they are still available. And while the Green getting 11% is plausible (he got 10.4% in 2006) we’ve seen the impact of strategic voting in close races before and could again in this race.
I don;t think these numbers are bad at all honestly.
And my LOL moment of this poll, its 2008 presidential comparison. In 2008, IL voted 61.8% Obama, 36.9% McCain and 1.3% other. This sample is 51% Obama, 41% McCain and 8% Other/Unknown. I’m willing to tolerate the Obama and McCain, but 8% Other/Unknown? How could people in Illinois, home state of the current president, not remember, they either voted for their native son or didnt? That’d be like 10% of people in Florida not remembering who they voted for in 2000 (Bush/Gore) when asked in 2002.
Even more hillarious, Whitney gets 18% support from the Other/Unknown group, but that group has a 0%, yes 0%, favorable of Whitney. (19% is unfavorable and 81% is unsure).
Since clearly this 8% in Illinois is lying, why should we trust their tales to PPP of who they will vote for? Its one thing for people to argue crosstabs aren;’t reliable, but when their sample seems to be impossible to exist and not logical (why would 18% of a subset vote for someone they are unsure of or don’t know) but this poll leaves a lot to be desired.
I’d say it about even right now, with Quinn having much more room to grow than either Whitney or Brady.
Where were you days ago when this poll came out as many SSPers have know about this for two days. Second nine points in August isn’t bad, how you are talking Quinn is doen by 20 agsinist and third, you must of forgot to read the memo that PPP wrote regsrding Quinn James
Meaning Bill Brady has ptobally reachedhis peak with voters and that’s probally true with his real conservstive views and if Quinn can get more of his party to support him he can win. This is Illinois James. It do matter what type of year this is, no way they will elect a crazy SOB (as you like to call him) like Bill Brady.
There I said my peace and fell real good about it.
2006 Illinois Gov race turnout was about 63% of 2008 Prez turnout.
If McCain turnout is 63% of 2008, 1,280,000 McCain voters will turnout. 63% of Obama voters is about 2,150,000. Then the additional 25% Obama no-show rate PPP projects means 537,500 more Obama voters will not vote.
So for every 100 McCain voters 63 will turnout, while PPP says for every 100 Obama voters only 47 will turnout.
Like with Wisconsin, PPP is projecting the lowest voter turnout in decades.
While at the same time, PPP projects zero change in 2008 to 2010 North Carolina turnout.