Public Policy Polling (pdf) (6/12-13, likely voters, 4/1-5 in parens):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (33)
Bill Brady (R): 34 (43)
Rich Whitney (G): 9 (NA)
Undecided: 27 (24)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
If you have a 27/50 approval rating — as Illinois governor Pat Quinn currently does — that means you’re rather unlikely to win an election. There are a few other governors who are plumbing these depths of unpopularity, but they aren’t running for re-election (or in the case of Jim Gibbons, already got bounced in the primary).
Quinn should feel lucky that the GOP put their worst foot forward with Bill Brady, though, as he’d be probably be in unsalvageable territory against, say, Kirk Dillard. A majority have no opinion about Brady, and those who do are split at a tepid 22/22. That gives Quinn the opportunity to try and define Brady as too right-wing for Illinois, and, while it’s too much to hope that Brady can become as unpopular as Quinn, get him unpopular enough that Illinois’s Democratic lean can do the rest of the work. Quinn might also be heartened by the high performance for Rich Whitney (who, it should be noted, also polled in double digits against Rod Blagojevich in 2006 — but that wasn’t a close race, and anti-Blago Dems were free to cast protest votes). In a close race, strategic-minded left-leaning voters might sigh and decide to vote for Quinn, nose held, than waste a protest vote on Whitney, given the conservative alternative in Brady.
I guess the difference being the state is more Democratic and Brady is more conservative than Christie.
Isn’t Bill Brady supposed to be as much a right wing lunatic as Sharron Angle?
This poll worries me. We’re all assuming that a wing nut like Angle or Brady is unelectable. But if Brady can win, could Angle or Toomey or Rubio or other teabaggers win as well?
The previous poll of PPP for this race is an outsider poll and PPP poll fast again Illinois. PPP numbers for Illinois are so bad, still both democratic candidates in the 30%.
Maybe I’m not the more common example of democratic voter, but I would vote both, Giannoulias and Quinn, in November elections. They are better than Kirk and Brady.
know you are only supposed to say “I told you so” once or twice but I can not get enough of it because I think I was in the minority rooting for Dan Hynes. Brady is and extremist Republican and is way too extreme for most states let only Illinois and that is the only reason why Quinn has a shot. But let’s face it Quinn is very unpopular and if Brady runs away from his extreme views then he can win. I mean Brady a STRONG opponent of ANY gun control and against abortion even in cases of rape and incest. He is a tea baggers tea bagger. But if he runs away from these views and focuses on the economy he stands and excellent chance to win. Let’s just see if Quinn can define him as the extremist he is but I don’t know if that is enough. If Dillard McKenna or Ryan had been the nominee this would be likely to safe R for sure. Only Brady gives Quinn a chance. This does not help Alexi. I blame Illinois’s early primary for this mess.
When a Green gets 9% statewide, it will be when a decimal point is misplaced.
Brady getting 34% now moves this beyond Lean Dem. Once a candidate running against the ideology of the state gets better known, this is good for his opponent.
The “it’s his turn” hack-o-rama sure has spit up some lame candidates this cycle.