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AR-02: Griffin Up by 17 Points

by: James L.

Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 2:49 PM EDT


Talk Business Research/Hendrix College for Talk Business (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Joyce Elliott (D): 35
Tim Griffin (R): 52
Lance Levi (I): 3
Lewis Kennedy (G): 1
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3.7%)

Oof. The story is in the favorables: Griffin, who won his two-way primary back in May without a runoff, has a net favorable rating of 53-21. Elliott, who slogged through two rough rounds of primary balloting, is underwater at 32-45. Griffin even leads in Dem-friendly Pulaski County, which was one of those rare spots in Arkansas that voted for Barack Obama back in 2008.

The NRCC is already telegraphing that they consider this race in the bag, going so far as to highlight the open seat race in Arkansas' 1st CD as a target for ad dollars this fall while signaling that they're prepared to let Griffin stand on his own.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
James L. :: AR-02: Griffin Up by 17 Points
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AR-02: Griffin Up by 17 Points | 17 comments
major primary vote fail
by the democrats of AR-2.  The minute Elliot won the primary, this seat was lost.  Granted, Wills wouldn't have been a guarantee to win, but he'd have a gazillion times better chance than Elliot.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
I have never understood political egos
I have never understood why politicians are unable to escape their own "bubble view" of the world and objectively survey political landscapes when it comes to the viability of a potential campaign in a general election setting. This seems to be the downfall of most politicians, they lose sight of reality on the ground and the pulse of the general electorate outside the base of support.

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
I Don't Buy It In This Case
If politicians took themselves out of contention because they thought they might be too liberal for their constitutency we'd have never had Sen. Russ Feingold or Rep. Mike Synar. People who aren't the dreams of the DCCC or the RNC actually do get elected - with home base support. And what kind of leaders would politicians be if they caved to the conventional wisdom at the first criticism along these lines? Now you are totally right that there are arrogant idiots who run for office (some of the big spending people will business backgrounds leap immediately to mind). But I think that ego in that context is different from simply trying to give your constituency a voice.
[ Parent ]
100% agree
I said even before primary that very liberal black woman is NOT  even remotely good candidate here. One can call me everything (even "racist", which i am not, BTW), but i still hold the same view now.
[ Parent ]
As example

She has still better polls in AR-02 than M Trivedi in PA-06, a D+ district.

I think she is not underperforming big other democrats for a district like this in a year like this. A SurveyUSA poll from Jaunary of this year gives just the same - 17% to V Snyder against T Griffin. I think V Snyder and the primary loser would be losing here by 10%+ now in polls like this.

[ Parent ]
These are reasonable hypothesis,
but still - hypothesis. Willis would almost surely be down now, but he would have a scant chance at least. Elliott - doesn't
[ Parent ]
The numbers look like
generic R v. generic D in an open seat in the South in 2010.
I agree

This looks like decent level generic R vs decent level generic D in an open seat in the south in 2010

This seat was in risk since the last year. We must remember the reasons for V Snyder decides retire. Surely he would be significatively back in this poll now. Then I think they are not reasons for critizice Elliot.

[ Parent ]
Stick a fork in this one
That Griffin has favorables this high is indicative of how poor a campaign Elliot seems to be running. The guy should have a big fuckin target on his forehead after all that shit with the US attorneys.

This is the most Democratic district in Arkansas so maybe we could win with a stronger candidate who's a better fit for the district.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

No surprise
This is the fourth likeliest seat to flip from Democrat to Republican on my list.  Once they nominated an AA, the race was over.
53 Favorable?
Anyone know how much spending against Griffin the Elliott campaign or other Democratic-aligned forces have already put into this race? I certainly buy Griffin being favored here, but it should be really easy to lower that favorable number by November given his background.
Yeah, but if you're talking about the Bush attorney scandals...
My gut reaction is that no one in this district really cares.  
[ Parent ]
Wow what a shock
Not really, I wrote this race off the minute Elliott won the primary. Out of the 30 seats I expect to lost, this is one on them and one of the first to flip. I'm sorry but a black woman cannot win this district and i'm sorry if I sound racist.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think it's because she's black
She's one of the more liberal members of the Arkansas State Senate and that is what is weighing her down, plus it's a poor cycle for Democrats. Like I said, perhaps I'm naive, but I just don't see race playing a part in this, because Vic Snyder was down 17 points to Griffin and made the decision to retire. I think it's just the cycle.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
I think the cycle has part of it
But I think alot of it has to do wuth the fact Joyce Elliott is black and liberal. Two no no's in this district.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Context on Joyce Elliott...
Why is she such a bad candidate, in other words?

From what I seem to be hearing, it's because she seems too liberal - and she's black and a woman. I did a google and wikipedia search, but they didn't provide too much information.

Anyone willing to provide more details?

http://mypolitikal.com/

I never understood that scandal
All Presidents try to put in people who are going to carry out their bidding.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

AR-02: Griffin Up by 17 Points | 17 comments

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