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MO-Sen: Blunt Rolls Up a 7-Point Lead

by: James L.

Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 12:14 AM EDT


Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/14-15, likely voters, 3/27-28 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 38 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 45 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 5
Jonathan Dine (L): 3
Undecided: 9 (13)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

Robin Carnahan once had a small, persistent lead in this contest, but all that went up in depressingly sweet, sweet smoke back in January. (Granted, most of the polls since that time have been from the desk of Scott Rasmussen...)

PPP's likely voter universe for Missouri has taken a turn for the red, with a sample that supported McCain over Obama by seven percent. With that in mind, Carnahan's strategy seems based in part on making Blunt's name poison among the anti-bailout crowd, releasing a new ad touting his role in shepherding the Wall Street bailout through the House in 2008. Maybe that'll be good enough to shave off a few points from Blunt's hide to the third-party candidates in November, but Carnahan will need to find a way to get listless Dems to the polls while she's at it.
James L. :: MO-Sen: Blunt Rolls Up a 7-Point Lead
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MO-Sen: Blunt Rolls Up a 7-Point Lead | 34 comments
honestly
i gave up on this one a few months ago. our pickup chances are fl, oh, ky, in that order. mo isn't gonna happen

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
I think alot of this
Has to do with the tilt of the state but I like what Carnahan is doing trying to make the Blunt name poison and tying him to the bailout because if you read the memo voters dissaprove the bailout by about 61 percent. But SSP is right, she needs to drag Blunt down AND get members of her own party to the polls.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Hard to do when she keeps running away..
...from the Democratic brand.
[ Parent ]
Hey that's her fault man...
Find it funny that she tries to run away from the brand yet when she needs dough who does she call?

You guessed it: President Obama.

Can't have it both ways Robin, either you stick with the brand or shut it off compltely and that includes bringing in the President for a fundraiser.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Why not ?
Do you think Obama or anyone else gives a rat's butt that she has to run away from Obama but runs to his money?

It's a smart strategy and the only one that will win. Albeit, she needs to get the cash NOW, because most people aren't paying attention yet.    

This is a winnable race for either candidate, but Carnahan will need at least one lucky break before 11/2.  The fact that Caranhan lead for so long is a testament to her strength.    

[ Parent ]
No I don't think Obama takes it personally
Politially he knows there are places he can help and places he can't for all we know Robin said to Obama "Mr. President, I like you and find you a great man but I need to run away from you because of my state. Hope you understand." Hey I don't care if she takes Obama's money good for her she will need it i'm just saying if your going to run away from the party brand, run away completely not just when it suits you that's all.

I agree with you that this is a winnable race and if Carnahan can turn out the Dems and hammer Roy Blunt she'll win closely.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Netroota nonsense
Missouri Dems view her favorably 84-12 which is a net 22 points (68-18) better than Blunt's favorability with Republicans. She is down because of the national party and the president. I'd advise her to continue doing exactly what she is doing.
[ Parent ]
She is down because of the national party and the president. I'd advise her to continue doing exactly what she is doing.
Yeah then tell her to stop doing fundraisers with the President then if she wants to run away from Satan and his party. Just sayin you can't have it both ways Robin.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
The president
Has no problem helping her raise money if she wins no matter how she does it.
[ Parent ]
Hey I don't care if Obama raises money for Carnahan
It's great because it will give her with a influx of cash she'll need to take on Blunt. Where I take offsense is that she's trying to run away from the party yet she'll bring in the President when she needs some dough. No it dosen't work that way, you can't have it both ways. Either run with the brand or cut it off completely on the trail. No in betweens.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
She is still running as a Democrat
She is doing what is necessary to be competitive while running into a headwind. And Democrats in Missouri overwhelmingly approve of her. Again, she is doing everything right IMO.
[ Parent ]
OK Then
Then if she's running as a Democrat why is she then running away from the party like people on here have been saying? Don't get me wrong she's doing alright she is doing what it takes to win. She's on TV attacking Blunt and that's good and her down by 7 in this climate in MO isn't bad. I'm just confuse on what people are saying about her.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Because Obama
And the national party are unpopular in her state right now.
[ Parent ]
That's true
But yeah you are right Robin has bern running a good campaign and your right she is doing what it takes to win and in the end that's what important what you do to win the six year term. Thanks for clearing up my confusion up for me.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
You can run away from the president...
...and even run away from the national party, but still retain the Democratic brand--ask Mark Critz.  But, if you throw away the brand totally, you have no chance of winning.  She could easily run as a Harry Truman democrat, but the former president is rolling in his grave with her Bush Tax cut nonsense.  She will have a hard time getting blue voters to the polls if she keeps running away from the brand that made her family famous.
[ Parent ]
That's a good point
Using Critz as an example. He ran away from the party but kept the brand and won the race by making it local unlike Tim Burns who in every commercial tried to nationalize the race making it about Obama and Pelosi and not Critz. The was his FAIL.

Now Mike you seem to have a firm grasp of whats going on there. Are you a MO resident and tell me what is Canahan doing that she's running away from the brand COMPLETELY.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
No, I'm not a resident....
....getting this info second hand, but her fall from polling grace started soon after abandoning the brand about 9 months ago. Her most recent example is supporting the Bush tax cuts for millionaires.  That's a Blanche Lincoln type of move, and it isn't going to help you win over anyone, especially your base.  Opposition voters see it as phony, and your base hates you for it!
[ Parent ]
Her most recent example is supporting the Bush tax cuts for millionaires
Oh you got to be fucking kidding me. Not even the President supports that (he supports letting them expire). Jesus your right that is a Blanche Lincoln type of move and shit going to bite her in the ass come November. I mean i'm all for running away from the party Mark Critz style but those move are not going to bring her base out. What does she think she'll gain by making stupid moves like that?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
The math doesn't support that

[ Parent ]
It's funny b/c throughout all of '09, even many Repubs had written this seat off
A lot of people thought this was going to be a Dem pickup. It may still be, but it's a lot less likely than it was a year ago. In even a neutral climate, Carnahan would be favored, but in a year like this? It's going to be very tough.  
[ Parent ]
It's tough yes I agree
And Ilike to be the one who said from the beginning that this would be no walk in the park for Carnahan. Claire McCaskill has to work her ass off to be Jim Talent by a percentage point. The same will go with Carnahan. If she csmpaigns the way McCaskill did (reaching out to the rural areas as well as keeping St. Louis, Columbia and Kansas City at reach) and hammers Blunt for the bailout and who he reprsents she can win. It will be tough but doable.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I would not give up on this one
The last three "open" seat senate races, 2000, 2002, and 2006, have been very close.  I think this one will end up close as well.
[ Parent ]
Oh i'm not giving up
Out of all the Senate races that are open by Republicans, the only one i'm giving up in is NH. I can still believe Robin will be based on what I said above but like you said it will be close, just like with her mom's election win and defest (can't believe Ashcroft lost to a deam man in Robin's dad Mel) and Claire McCaskill's win over Jim Talent.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
so we can win
kansas? :P

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Oh yes.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry I needed to be more specific
In a dream world: Yes

In the real world: No.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
mm lucky Elaine Marshall in NC for get polled just the last week under the old system.

I see not reasons for this change. If the new system gives better results, why introduce the change just after poll NC? NC would be the more important poll for PPP.

What mean a likely voters model? What is a likely voter really? Lots of undecided persons what finally would vote can get out in these models.

According to Jensen
The reason for PPP methology change was because of low Dem turnout, that's there polling will be more GOPish. If you read the memo 50 percent poll were conservative. That gives you a idea of where there going if it helps.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
But, their polling was already GOP-ish...
...yet, very accurate (they nailed the WA primary results, for example)... they didn't need a tighter screen than the automatic "robopoll" screen they already had.
[ Parent ]
Hey your preaching to the choir Mike
I see no reason for PPP to change their voter screen when itwas already accurate to begin with.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Accurate within the primary doesn't relate to the general
Their general election samples have been absurd in comparison to each other.  To say the voting population will be 0% Obama no-shows in NC and 28% Obama no-shows in Wisconsin is impossible nonsense.

However, when it comes to a primary, there is no such Obama/McCain, Dem/Rep/Ind relative weighting.  It's just Dems or just Reps.

[ Parent ]
Quote
"One final note: we do not weight our polls for party or 2008 vote or anything like that- just fixed demographics of gender, race, and age. So the level of Democratic dropoff we show is not determined by our guesses, but by who says they're going to vote this fall and answers our polls."

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

[ Parent ]
I agree but I see not this absurd

I see some logic about this 0% for NC and this 28% for WI. Like I see some logic to include the last change just after poll NC-Sen. I think is the same logic.
[ Parent ]
I just picked the most recent example...
They've been very good in general election contests, except for congressional contests--and in those, they gave way more points to the repbulican!
[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: Blunt Rolls Up a 7-Point Lead | 34 comments

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