This poll's a pretty good sign of the times: Despite Blunt's unpopularity (he sports a 25-41 favorable rating, compared to Carnahan's 38-43 rating), he now has a clear edge in this race after trailing Carnahan by low-single digits throughout most of 2009.
Tom Jensen paints some possible routes to a Carnahan victory:
[...] Beyond that 55% of voters trust Jefferson City politicians most to deal with Missouri's problems compared to only 13% who pick Washington DC. Drawing a contrast between herself as someone who's worked hard in the state and Blunt as a Washington insider has the potential to pay dividends for Carnahan further down the road.
There are two ways to see Carnahan coming out on top in this race. If Obama's approval gets even just to the point where the state is equally divided in its feelings about him Carnahan will probably come out on top because of her greater personal popularity and the anti-Washington sentiments of the electorate right now. If Obama's numbers don't get any better Carnahan's going to have to try to shift the election from a referendum on the President to a referendum on Roy Blunt and his record in Washington.
