Here is my first attempt at redistricting New Jersey.
Here is a 10-2 NJ plan that is fairly compact, preserves communities of interest, and still has 2 VRA districts. It only splits a small handful of cities, and minimizes splitting counties.
Unlike some other states, NJ has just barely enough minorities in the same place to fill a VRA district(and it gets harder every census), so VRA districts can’t be used to soak up Republican votes.
Note: Obama vs McCain numbers for new districts don’t count votes for other candidats, so they always add up to 100%.
1st District Frank LoBiondo (R) BLUE
Pinelands, Atlantic City area
New 56%O 44%M Old 54%O 45%M
67% White, 15% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian
In 2008 Frank LoBiondo was reelected with 62% of the vote in a district that gave Obama 54%. Do the math, how Democratic will it have to be to dislodge him. At least now at 56% Obama the district is all but certain to go Democratic after LoBiondo retires (he’s 64). The outermost townships of Camden and Gloucester are more rural than the rest of their counties, but they are just as Democratic. (So I lied, as long as LoBiondo sticks around it’s not 10-2).
2nd District Rob Andrews (D), John Adler (D) GREEN
Camden area
New 63%O 37%M Old 65%O 34%M
70% White, 15% Black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Rob Andrews and John Adler are my least favorite Democratic Congressmen from NJ, so I don’t mind putting both of them into the same district. It’s 2 points less Democratic, to help out the 1st.
3rd District Rush Holt (D) PURPLE
Mount Laurel, Trenton, Princeton
New 63%O 37%M Old 52%O 47%M
67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian
Rush Holt is my favorite Democratic Congressman, so I hate doing this to him. His district (the old 12th) is split almost perfectly in 2, so he gets to pick which half he wants. This district follows the Delaware River from Palmyra to Frenchtown. Obama won even the Hunterdon part of this district.
4th District Chris Smith (R) RED
Ocean county, southern Monmouth County
New 41%O 59%M Old 47%O 52%M
87% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian
There is no need to split Ocean County because it is so uniformly Republican. Just add some like-minded southern Monmouth. About 2/3 of Smith’s district is already in Monmouth and Ocean, so this isn’t a big change for him. Now the Mercer and Burlington parts of his district can go in a Democratic district where they belong. Bill Clinton probably won it in 1996.
5th District Rush Holt? (D) YELLOW
Brunswicks, Windsors, Franklin, Bridgewater
New 61%O 39%M Old 58%O 41%M
61% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 17% Asian
The well-educated, affluent, heavily-Democratic suburbs of Central NJ. It’s more Democratic because it loses the arms extending into Hunterdon and Monmouth. Rush Holt will probably take this district so John Adler can have the 3rd.
6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE
Lake Como to most of Edison
New 55%O 45%M Old 60%O 39%M
63% White, 9% Black, 16% Hispanic, 11% Asian
It loses some Democratic strength because it takes more of Monmouth, but it’s still Democratic enough. This piece of Monmouth has a majority of the county’s population and Obama won it.
7th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) GRAY
Morristown, Plainfield, Linden
New 56%O 44%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M
63% White, 11% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian
This district contains all of Union that’s not in a VRA district, and piece of Morris that Obama lost by 300 votes (out of 100,000), and fairly Democratic pieces of Somerset, Middlesex, and Essex. At last, North Plainfield, Plainfiled, and South Plainfield are all in the same district! It has a finger protrude west into Dover and Wharton so those Democratic towns don’t go to waste. Rodney F has not represented most of this territory before, so it will be difficult for him to win it. Linda Stender or Ed Potosnak should win it fairly easily.
8th District Donald Payne (D) INDIGO
Newark, Oranges, Roselle
New 82%O 18%M Old 87%O 13%M
26% White, 51% Black, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian
The black VRA district. It loses heavily Democratic and white Linden and Rahway, and takes in Republican-leaning Kenilworth and Nutley.
9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN
Elizabeth, Hoboken, Kearny
New 72%O 28%M Old 75%O 24%M
34% White, 7% Black, 49% Hispanic, 8% Asian
The Hispanic VRA district. It no longer reaches into Middlesex County, that territory is saved for a Democrat who needs it more.
10th District Steve Rothman (D) PINK
Secaucus, most of Bergen
New 58%O 42%M Old 61%O 38%M
60% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic, 15% Asian
It extends to the northern border because of slow population growth. This makes it 3 points less Democratic. That’s still Democratic enough.
11th District Bill Pascrell (D) LIME
West Orange, Paterson, Ridgewood
New 56%O 44%M Old 63%O 36%M
57% White, 9% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian
Just like the 10th, it extends to the northern border and becomes less Democratic. It’s still Paterson-centric.
12th District Scott Garrett (R), Leonard lance (R) SKY BLUE
northwest NJ
New 42%O 58%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M
86% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian
All of Sussex and Warren. Parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris and Passaic. Any territory in NW NJ that is remotely Democratic has been drawn into a different district.
Republican Gerrymander
1st District Rob Andrews (D) BLUE
Camden and Burlington area
New 69%O 31%M Old 65%O 34%M
63% White, 21% Black, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian
The existing 1st was designed to pack in as much Democratic territory as possible. I just did a better job. This is the only Dem district that’s more than 50% white.
2nd District Frank LoBiondo (R) GREEN
Pinelands, Bay shore, Vineland/Millville, Cape May
New 53%O 47%M Old 54%O 45%M
75% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian
It loses Atlantic City and Pleasantville to make it more Republican, and make up for it gaining Gloucester County.
3rd District John Adler? (D) PURPLE
Atlantic City, Toms River, Delran
New 49.7%O 50.3%M Old 52%O 47%M
79% White, 9% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian
This district is dominated by Ocean County, and doesn’t have anywhere for a Democrat to build a base.
4th District Chris Smith (R) RED
Hamilton, Old Bridge, Springfield
New 53%O 47%M Old 47%O 52%M
74% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian
Chris Smith always outperforms his district’s PVI, especially in Hamilton (the southwesternmost town in this district). In 2008 Hamilton gave 55% of its vote to Obama and 68% of its vote to Smith. Hamilton (pop. 86k) should be enough of an anchor for Smith to hold down the rest of this swing district.
5th District Rush Holt (D) SKY BLUE
Trenton, New Brunswick, Plainfield
New 72%O 28%M Old 58%O 41%M
44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian
Democratic Central NJ gets packed in like never before. It’s minority-majority, which is hard to believe from the part where I live. Pretend this district has the most Democratic possible combination of Edison and Woodbridge, while Chris Smith gets the rest of Edison and Woodbridge.
6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE
Monmouth and northern Ocean
New 45%O 55%M Old 60%O 39%M
78% White, 7% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian
It’s probably too Republican for Pallone to hold it. And most of it is territory he has not represented before.
7th District Leonard Lance (R) GRAY
Flemington, Somerville, Morristown, West Orange
New 49%O 51%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M
76% White, 4% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian
A more Republican version of the current 7th district.
8th District Donald Payne (D) PINK
Newark, Oranges, Roselle
New 84%O 16%M Old 87%O 13%M
23% White, 53% Black, 17% Hispanic, 5% Asian
It only became less Democratic because it lost population and had to expand. It still packs in blacks and white Democrats.
9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN
Elizabeth, Hoboken, Union City
New 74%O 26%M Old 75%O 24%M
30% White, 8% Black, 53% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Not that different from the existing 13th.
10th District Steve Rothman (D) vs Bill Pascrell (D) INDIGO
Paterson, Hackensack, Englewood
New 69%O 31%M Old 8th: 63%O 36%M — Old 9th: 61%O 38%M
44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian
The most Democratic parts of the existing 8th and 9th get packed into 1 district.
11th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) LIME
Warren County to Secaucus
New 51%O 49%M Old 45%O 54%M
77% White, 3% Black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian
It takes in northern Essex, southern Bergen, and Secaucus and part of Kearny. Morris and Warren should be enough to keep it Republican at the Congressional level. If it’s not Republican enough for you then trade some territory with the 12th, which has some Republican strength to spare.
12th District Scott Garrett (R) YELLOW
Sussex to Alpine
New 46%O 54%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M
83% White, 2% Black, 7% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Everything along NJ’s northern border.
where the VRA has outlived its usefulness. A black or Hispanic candidate is more than capable for winning a non VRA district, as has been proved by Obama and Bob Menendez.
In a state like New Jersey, the only thing the VRA does is to ensure that potentially corrupt Congresspeople remain in office because their district is not competitive.
I recall that NJ has some sort of commission that does the redistricting.
If not, where are you getting your numbers from?
I played around with them alot and I have posted some diaries in the past on New Jersey Redistricting. I felt that I gerrymandered way too much in them while you were able to keep it pretty compact. Great job!
Speaking as a former North Jersey resident, I have to admire the successful utilisation of first-ring suburban GOP areas like Kenilworth and Clark. The only problem I have with that map is that in your 11th and 12th, the areas that are linked together are pretty much cultural opposites: you have working-class towns in the Meadowlands linked to rich “I don’t like paying taxes” people in places like Roxbury and Mendham. Other than that, great job with both maps!