The 2010 Census is coming up, and that means new Congressional districts. After the 2000 Census, New Jersey has 13 districts. After the 2010 Census, New Jersey is projected to have 12 districts. It will lose a district because it has not kept up with national population growth.
Here is the current Congressional Districts:
For a better view of the Congressional Districts, see this pdf provided by the state government.
Some observations:
1. 8 of the districts are represented by Democrats. 5 are represented by Republicans.
2. Some of the districts have very odd shapes. It looks ridiculously gerrymandered.
3. Many individual cities and towns are divided between 2 districts. (Jersey City is in 3 districts.) However no city in New Jersey has enough population to fill a congressional district.
4. 5 of the 21 counties have 4 districts in them. 4 more counties have 3 districts in them. However only a few counties (just Essex, Bergen, and Middlesex) have enough population to fill a congressional district.
5. The district numbers don’t make sense. They seem to be numbered at random. It would look better if the 5th and 12th switch numbers.
Some goals for drawing the new districts should include: make the districts as compact as possible, keep municipalities together at all times, keep counties together as much as possible, and number the districts in a way that makes sense.
When New Jersey does its redistricting, they focus on incumbent protection. Since 2000, one one district has changed parties. (We can still change that in 2010.) Only 3 others have even changed representatives! The 2010 plan should make the district that flipped (NJ-03) more solidly Democratic. But this time NJ is losing a district, so not all of the incumbents can be protected. Ask any NJ Democrat which Congressman they would like to see eliminated, and the answer will invariably be Scott Garrett. So my 2010 map turns the 3 Republican districts in Northern NJ into 2 Republican districts.
I used 2007 population estimates provided by the Census to create the new districts. The estimate for New Jersey is 8,686,000 people. That means each district has close to 724,000 people.
Here is what I came up with:
Look at those beautiful compact districts!
Numbers on the right map are population per district per county, in thousands.
Feel free to steal it. If you want a blank template without numbers and county names then email me.
| Representative | old# | new# | old PVI | new PVI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Andrews | D | 1 | 2 | D+14 | D+13 |
| Frank LoBiondo | R | 2 | 1 | D+4 | D+1 |
| John Adler | D | 3 | 3 | D+3 | D+6 |
| Chris Smith | R | 4 | 4 | R+1 | R+4 |
| Scott Garrett | R | 5 | R+4 | ||
| Frank Pallone | D | 6 | 6 | D+12 | D+12 |
| Leonard Lance | R | 7 | 7 | R+1 | R+9 |
| Bill Pascrell | D | 8 | 12 | D+12 | D+9 |
| Steve Rothman | D | 9 | 11 | D+13 | D+8 |
| Donald Payne | D | 10 | 9 | D+34 | D+32 |
| Rodney Frehlinghuysen | R | 11 | 8 | R+6 | R+1 |
| Rush Holt | D | 12 | 5 | D+8 | D+12 |
| Albio Sires | D | 13 | 10 | D+23 | D+23 |
Note: PVI’s are based on the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections. New PVI’s are guesses, not calculations.
NJ-01:
Current district NJ-02 has a fairly strong Dem PVI, but Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo manages to keep getting reelected easily. Except for the Atlantic City area, it is mostly rural. Due to slow population growth in the region, it will have to expand after 2010. It will almost certainly expand into Ocean County (conservative), and probably lose ground in Gloucester County (liberal). Therefore this district will become more Republican after 2010. If a Democrat wants to challenge Frank LoBiondo then 2010 is the year. After that it will get harder.
NJ-02:
Current district NJ-01 is centered around Camden and its immediate suburbs. In 2000 it was designed to be the only Dem district in South Jersey, so it packs in all the Dem strongholds around Camden (directly across the border from Philadelphia). The region’s population growth has not kept up with the national average, so the district will expand. It can’t expand into Cherry Hill because John Adler lives there. All of Camden and Gloucester County minus Cherry Hill and Merchantville has the right number of people to fill a district, according to 2007 Census estimates.
NJ-03:
NJ-03 is the only district that flipped parties this decade. It was designed to keep electing Republican Congressman Jim Saxton. In 2008 Saxton retired and Democrat John Adler won it 52-48. The district in its current form has 2 population centers. Cherry Hill and western Burlington County is strongly Democratic. Ocean County is strong Republican. The huge swath of land in between is sparsely populated. The way to make this district safer for Adler is to remove the Ocean County part, and add more Burlington County. In order to get enough people, the proposed district extends into Mercer County to include Hamilton and Trenton.
NJ-04:
In 2008 Chris Smith was elected to his 15th term in Congress. He was first elected to Congress at the age of 27, and he will keep getting reelected for as long as he wants. If we can’t beat him then we should pack more Republican parts into his district. His current district includes parts of Mercer, Burlington, Monmouth and Ocean counties. To make it more Republican, take out the Mercer and Burlington parts (and give them to Adler in NJ-03), and add more Monmouth and Ocean. Monmouth and Ocean counties are trending more Republican. Obama won a smaller percent of the vote in these 2 counties than Gore did in 2000. Chris Smith lives in Hamilton so he will have to move. That won’t be hard because he actually lives in Northern Virginia and he rents an empty apartment in Hamilton.
NJ-05:
This is the Rush Holt district (currently NJ-12 for some reason). The current district is weird-shaped because it reaches into Hunderdon and Monmouth Counties. The proposed district will consist of only Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset. This plan shows the district spanning from Hopewell to Edison, including both Princeton and Rutgers Universities.
NJ-06:
Current NJ-06 is probably the craziest-shaped district in the state. Proposed NJ-06 is much better. It’s still not as compact as the others because it has to follow the coast. The reason for its crazy shape was probably to take in only the very-Democratic parts, so there can be 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. With only 2 Republican districts in North Jersey it is much easier to give NJ-06 intelligible boundaries. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, on the Monmouth shore, so the Monmouth shore will continue to be part of the district, even as the region trends more Republican.
NJ-07:
Current NJ-07 is the other very crazy-shaped district. Most of its population is in the high-density suburbs in Union and Middlesex County. But Congressman Leonard Lance is from rural Hunterdon County. To make this district a better fit for Lance I removed Union and Middlesex and added Sussex, Warren, and “outer” Morris.
NJ-08:
This is now the second Republican district in North Jersey. It is made out of the current districts NJ-07 and NJ-11. Rodney Frehlinghuysen will be the incumbent Congressman and he should be able to get reelected easily. But this may become a swing district when it opens up.
NJ-09:
This is the majority-black district. Using 2000 demographic information, the proposed district is 48% black. 48% is enough to elect a black Congressman because black people are more likely than white people to vote in the Democratic primary. It is centered around Newark and the Oranges. The current NJ-10 is 58% black but I traded some black population for compactness.
NJ-10:
This is the majority-Hispanic district. It consists of Hudson County plus Elizabeth. This just happens to have the right number of people for a district. This proposed district is 43% Hispanic. 43% should be enough to elect a Hispanic Congressman (see above). The current NJ-13 is 48% Hispanic. This proposed configuration is nice and compact. There are other possible centers of Hispanic population (Passaic, Paterson) but it would take some creative gerrymandering to reach them.
NJ-11:
The current NJ-09 is in Hudson and Bergen County. The proposed NJ-11 is entirely within Bergen. Northern Bergen County is currently part of NJ-05, represented by Scott Garrett. Show this map to any Dem in Bergen County and you will be greeted as a liberator.
NJ-12:
Proposed NJ-12 consists of the rest of Bergen County, most of Passaic County, and bits of Essex County. Urban northern NJ is losing population, so Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell are getting pushed into the suburbs.
Cross-posted on Daily Kos.
It may not be obvious but the principal goal of the current districting was the protection of newly elected Democrat Rush Holt. Mission accomplished. Holt got 62% in 2008 and Obama 58%. The goals in the next redistrict will probably be to protect Adler and to have a north Jersey Republican cough up the lost seat (preferrably Garrett).
Moving Gloucester into Rob Andrews district rather than expanding it further into Camden and Burlington is a real plus. The current district is run by the George Norcross machine this allows at least some possiblity of relief. The Camille, no Rob, farce of last fall shows how crazy this diestrict is. The Norcross Machine is strong in both Camden and Burlington Counties.
If it is a battle between Leonard Lance and Scott Garrett in a Republican primary, the cookoo Garrett may prevail. Go Lance. This R+9 district becomes one of the strongest Republican seats in the Northeast.
Personally, I was looking forward to being represented by a Democrat. Alas, I stay in Rodney Frelinghuysen’s district despite living in one of the most Democratic counties in the state (Essex). It is now a swing district (R+1) so there is hope for the future.
The new map is far more compact and reasonable. While it makes Chris Smith and Frank Lo Biondo’s districts more Republican it does keep eight solid Democratic districts and lose a Republican. Overall, a very good map.
I think its a good map being that it is more compact and less gerrymandered. As well as acknowledging the fact that the 2000 map was drawn to protect incumbents, its likely the same mentality will prevail in 2010.
I am going to have to agree David Kowalski, above, on what would be a Garrett v. Lance Republican primary for the new 7th. Being that I live in Hunterdon (in the same town as Lance, actually) Go Lance!
Maybe Bobby Jindal can carve a CD for Garrett in Louisiana, he fits in much better down there!
1. Combine Garrett and Rod F into a super Repub district instead of Garrett and Lance. The idea is that we can beat Lance in a good year, but we are not going to beat Rod F. Also with his seniority, Rod F probably has a better chance of beating Garrett in a primary than does Lance.
2. Draw Lance’s district into Newark and give him some of the hardest core black precincts.
3. Eliminate these ridiculous minority numbers in Northern NJ. This is not Alabama, a 40% black district will easily elect a black to Congress. If you want to make sure of this, add some hard core Repub areas to the district (that will guarantee that a black/Hispanic wins the primary as the Repubs don’t vote in the Dem primary).
4. Dump all of Ocean in Smith’s district. Smith is not going to be beaten, so make his district as Repub as possible, and give LoBiondo a more Democratic district. That will give us a chance to dump him.
In sum, there should be one heavily Repub district in the North (for Rod F) and one in the South (for Smith). We should protect the Dems, and draw Lance into Newark to get rid of him, and weaken LoBiondo (maybe draw him into Camden) to get rid of him.
The end goal of my plan would be a 10-2 Democratic edge.
It definitely does not look as gerrymandered as the current composition. Sort of like Georgia in its current state. You should start some petition to the New Jersey Legislature to have them consider your design.
NJ redistrict itself? Is the Governor involved in any way?
But mostly I’m just glad to learn that I’m not the only one who plays Fantasy Redistricting.
I was looking at doing something like this for a few other states, but lack the knowledge and graphical skills to do it as well as you have.
I’d like to raise one further point: retirements. LoBiondo was only born in 1946, so he’s probably not a retirement risk until nearly 2020, whilst Smith has his seat as long as he wants it. That means if we want to shift them, it has to be by making their seats more competitive.
Rush Holt no longer needs shoring up, and I figure it’s worth exploring the possibility of screwing with NJ-01, either to render a challenge to the Norcross machine possible or just to give Andrews a more risky district so he can pontificate and his neighbours more Dems. How about giving up some of Camden to NJ-02 and extending down the western border of NJ? Would that help?
I’d also check state legislators just to check the character of a region. If it’s an area with lots of moderate Republicans, dump Garrett there. Just don’t give him the base of all NJ’s biggest wingnuts.
Frelinhusyn to hell and back by vastly increasing the black and hispanic portions of his district with solidly Democratic areas of Rothman and Siresè district while removing the most Republican areas. Basically leaving him screwed and up for the defeat. The Democratic votes are there, it could be done easily without making either sires or Rothmans districts even remotely Republican.
Your PVI guesses are off, sometimes substantially. NJ-06 can’t lose Plainfield, New Brunswick, Metuchen, and Edison and pick up Rumson, the rest of Old Bridge, the rest of Middletown, and Holmdel and still be D+12. Obama only carried that district 54-44 and it’s one that a Jennifer Beck could carry in an open seat race, which is a distinct possibility should Pallone run for Senate in 2014. NJ-07 is a lot further gone than R+9. R+11 is more like it in a district where Obama did relatively well compared to Gore but still lost by 20.
Pallone’s district is too red. He’ll win it easily, but it would be vulnerable should his seat ever open. New 8 is very Republican on a state level; only two Dem legislators live in new 8 (Green & Stender) versus ten or so Republicans. Also, Obama lost new 8 by 3,000 votes. For comparison, Obama won the similarly situated old 7 by 3%, and old 7 is home to at least three Dem legislators (Buono, Vitale, Stender; Barnes and Cryan might live in the district as well). Old 2/New 1 is A LOT more promising of a pickup opportunity in both open seat and incumbent challenge scenarios, and we should be making that district more Democratic rather than more Republican.
If we’re trying for max partisan gain here, we can do a lot better with NJ-08. However, the map in New Jersey isn’t drawn by the legislature, it’s drawn by a bipartisan commission, past which you won’t sneak a partisan massacre. I think we’re in good shape to draw off Leonard Lance and to shore up John Adler, but we’re not going to be able to get away with drawing out one North Jersey Republican and substantially weakening another.
Compactness is seriously overrated. It’s also not an excuse for diluting black voting power in old 10/new 9 by 10%. At least do the Jersey City/Newark precinct swap to increase the black % in old 10/new 9 and the Latino % in old 13/new 10. Preserving County boundaries may look pretty on paper but it’s not so nice on the ground. I live in the Mercer portion of old 12/new 5, and I don’t want the Middlesex County Democratic Chair picking my Congressman when Rush Holt retires-or, for that matter, before he retires.